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DOE OSTI2024

Time series methods for the analysis of soundscapes and other cyclical ecological data

Biodiversity monitoring has entered an era of ‘big data’, exemplified by a near-continuous collection of sounds, images, chemical and other signals from organisms in diverse ecosystems. Such data streams have the potential to help identify new threats, assess the effectiveness of conservation interventions, as well as generate new ecological insights. However, appropriate analytical methods are often still missing, particularly with respect to characterizing cyclical temporal patterns. Here, we present a framework for characterizing and analysing ecological responses that represent nonstationary, complex temporal patterns and demonstrate the value of using Fourier transforms to decorrelate continuous data points. In our example, we use a framework based on three approaches (spectral analysis, magnitude squared coherence, and principal component analysis) to characterize differences in tropical forest soundscapes within and across sites and seasons in Gabon. By reconstructing the underlying, cyclic behaviour of the soundscape for each site, we show how one can identify circadian patterns in acoustic activity. Soundscapes in the dry season had a complex diel cycle, requiring multiple harmonics to represent daily variation, while in the wet season there was less variance attributable to the daily cyclic patterns. Our framework can be applied to most continuous, or near-continuous ecological data collected at a fine temporal resolution, allowing ecologists to explore patterns of temporal autocorrelation at multiple levels for biologically meaningful trends. Such methods will become indispensable as biological big data are used to understand the impact of anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and to inform efforts to mitigate them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Taming the terminological tempest in invasion science

ABSTRACT Standardised terminology in science is important for clarity of interpretation and communication. In invasion science – a dynamic and rapidly evolving discipline – the proliferation of technical terminology has lacked a standardised framework for its development. The result is a convoluted and inconsistent usage of terminology, with various discrepancies in descriptions of damage and interventions. A standardised framework is therefore needed for a clear, universally applicable, and consistent terminology to promote more effective communication across researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers. Inconsistencies in terminology stem from the exponential increase in scientific publications on the patterns and processes of biological invasions authored by experts from various disciplines and countries since the 1990s, as well as publications by legislators and policymakers focusing on practical applications, regulations, and management of resources. Aligning and standardising terminology across stakeholders remains a challenge in invasion science. Here, we review and evaluate the multiple terms used in invasion science (e.g. ‘non‐native’, ‘alien’, ‘invasive’ or ‘invader’, ‘exotic’, ‘non‐indigenous’, ‘naturalised’, ‘pest’) to propose a more simplified and standardised terminology. The streamlined framework we propose and translate into 28 other languages is based on the terms ( i ) ‘non‐native’, denoting species transported beyond their natural biogeographic range, ( ii ) ‘established non‐native’, i.e. those non‐native species that have established self‐sustaining populations in their new location(s) in the wild, and ( iii ) ‘invasive non‐native’ – populations of established non‐native species that have recently spread or are spreading rapidly in their invaded range actively or passively with or without human mediation. We also highlight the importance of conceptualising ‘spread’ for classifying invasiveness and ‘impact’ for management. Finally, we propose a protocol for classifying populations based on ( i ) dispersal mechanism, ( ii ) species origin, ( iii ) population status, and ( iv ) impact. Collectively and without introducing new terminology, the framework that we present aims to facilitate effective communication and collaboration in invasion science and management of non‐native species.

Soto, Ismael↗

DOE OSTI2020

Critical habitat identification of peripheral Sage Thrashers under climate change

Abstract The Sage Thrasher ( Oreoscoptes montanus ) has been assessed as “Endangered” in Canada since 1992. Like other species with a geographic range that barely extends into Canada, Sage Thrashers are rare. Thirty‐one percent of Canada's bird species listed for recovery under the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA) are at the periphery of their range. A listing of “endangered” under SARA requires identification of critical habitat for the species. With anticipated climate change, recovery of species requires a more proactive intervention than relying on historical occurrence to locate suitable habitat. We synthesized 19 years of Sage Thrasher occurrence and related habitat data across the species' northern range in British Columbia (BC) and Washington (WA) to define critical habitat characteristics. We found Sage Thrashers selected less leaf litter and less grass cover in flat or low‐slope regions farther from anthropogenic or natural habitat breaks; habitat sensitive to the expected climate change impacts of fire, changes in precipitation, and invasive species establishment. By augmenting the BC data collected in the species' peripheral range with data from their core distribution in WA, we identified key habitat elements of an otherwise data‐poor species that do not breed in sufficient numbers in Canada to reliably characterize their habitat. These methods improve the identification of “critical habitat” for peripheral species like Sage Thrashers in preparation for climate‐induced range expansion northward. The framework developed demonstrates a useful template for conservation strategies for data‐limited peripheral populations in other regions. Focusing on the landscape‐level variables that indicate good habitat, and not the locations of habitat, can identify suitable future areas for conservation.

Millikin, Rhonda L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physiologically based modeling reveals different risk of respiratory depression after fentanyl overdose between adults and children

Despite a rapid increase in pediatric mortality rate from prescription and illicit opioids, there is limited research on the dose-dependent impact of opioids on respiratory depression in children, the leading cause of opioid-associated death. In this article, we extend a previously developed translational model to cover pediatric populations by incorporating age-dependent pharmacokinetic, pharmacodynamic, and physiological changes compared to adults. Our model reproduced previous perioperative clinical findings that adults and children have similar risk of respiratory depression at the same plasma fentanyl concentration when specific endpoints (minute ventilation, CO 2 tension in the blood) were used. However, our model points to a potential caveat that, in a perioperative setting, routine use of mechanical ventilation and supplemental oxygen maintained the blood and tissue oxygen partial pressures in patients and prevented the use of oxygen-related endpoints to evaluate the consequences of respiratory depression. In a community setting when such oxygenation procedures are not immediately available, our model suggests that the higher oxygen demand and reduced cerebrovascular reactivity could make children more susceptible to severe hypoxemia and brain hypoxia, even with the same plasma fentanyl concentration as adults. Our work indicates that when developing intervention strategies to protect children from opioid overdose in a community setting, these pediatric-specific factors may need to be considered.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate cooling benefits of cellulosic bioenergy crops from elevated albedo

Abstract Changes in land surface albedo can alter ecosystem energy balance and potentially influence climate. We examined the albedo of six bioenergy cropping systems in southwest Michigan USA: monocultures of energy sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ), switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.), and giant miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus) , and polycultures of native grasses, early successional vegetation, and restored prairie. Direct field measurements of surface albedo ( α s ) from May 2018 through December 2020 at half‐hourly intervals in each system quantified the magnitudes and seasonal differences in albedo (∆ α ) and albedo‐induced radiative forcing (RF ∆ α ). We used a nearby forest as a historical native cover type to estimate reference albedo and RF ∆ α change upon original land use conversion, and a continuous no‐till maize ( Zea mays L .) system as a contemporary reference to estimate change upon conversion from annual row crops. Annually, α s differed significantly ( p < 0.05) among crops in the order: early successional (0.288 ± 0.012SE) >> miscanthus (0.271 ± 0.009) ≈ energy sorghum (0.270 ± 0.010) ≥ switchgrass (0.265 ± 0.009) ≈ restored prairie (0.264 ± 0.012) > native grasses (0.259 ± 0.010) > maize (0.247 ± 0.010). Reference forest had the lowest annual α s (0.134 ± 0.003). Albedo differences among crops during the growing season were also statistically significant, with growing season α s in perennial crops and energy sorghum on average ~20% higher (0.206 ± 0.003) than in no‐till maize (0.184 ± 0.002). Average non‐growing season (NGS) α s (0.370 ± 0.020) was much higher than growing season α s (0.203 ± 0.003) but these NGS differences were not significant. Overall, the original conversion of reference forest and maize landscapes to perennials provided a cooling effect on the local climate (RF αMAIZE : −3.83 ± 1.00 W m −2 ; RF αFOREST : −16.75 ± 3.01 W m −2 ). Significant differences among cropping systems suggest an additional management intervention for maximizing the positive climate benefit of bioenergy crops, with cellulosic crops on average ~9.1% more reflective than no‐till maize, which itself was about twice as reflective as the reference forest.

Lei, Cheyenne↗

DOE OSTI2020

Muscone suppresses inflammatory responses and neuronal damage in a rat model of cervical spondylotic myelopathy by regulating Drp1‐dependent mitochondrial fission

Abstract Cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) is a common cause of disability with few treatments. Aberrant mitochondrial dynamics play a crucial role in the pathogenesis of various neurodegenerative diseases. Thus, regulation of mitochondrial dynamics may offer therapeutic benefit for the treatment of CSM. Muscone, the active ingredient of an odoriferous animal product, exhibits anti‐inflammatory and neuroprotective effects for which the underlying mechanisms remain obscure. We hypothesized that muscone might ameliorate inflammatory responses and neuronal damage by regulating mitochondrial dynamics. To this end, the effects of muscone on a rat model of chronic cervical cord compression, as well as activated BV2 cells and injured neurons, were assessed. The results showed that muscone intervention improved motor function compared with vehicle‐treated rats. Indeed, muscone attenuated pro‐inflammatory cytokine expression, neuronal‐apoptosis indicators in the lesion area, and activation of the nod‐like receptor family pyrin domain‐containing 3 inflammasome, nuclear transcription factor‐κB, and dynamin‐related protein 1 in Iba1‐ and βIII‐tubulin‐labeled cells. Compared with vehicle‐treated rats, compression sites of muscone‐treated animals exhibited elongated mitochondrial morphologies in individual cell types and reduced reactive oxygen species. In vitro results indicated that muscone suppressed microglial activation and neuronal damage by regulating related‐inflammatory or apoptotic molecules. Moreover, muscone inhibited dynamin‐related protein 1 activation in activated BV2 cells and injured neurons, whereby it rescued mitochondrial fragmentation and reactive oxygen species production, which regulate a wide range of inflammatory and apoptotic molecules. Our findings reveal that muscone attenuates neuroinflammation and neuronal damage in rats with chronic cervical cord compression by regulating mitochondrial fission events, suggesting its promise for CSM therapy. image

Zhou, Long‐yun↗

DOE OSTI2025

Direction of impact for explainable risk assessment modeling

Abstract Several graphical indicators have been recently introduced to help analysts visualize the marginal effects of inputs in complex models. The insights derived from such tools may help decision‐makers and risk analysts in designing interventions. However, we know little about the adequacy and consistency of different indicators. This work investigates popular marginal effect indicators to understand whether they yield indications consistent with the properties of the quantitative model under inspection. Specifically, we examine the notions of monotonicity, Lipschitz, and concavity consistency. Surprisingly, only PD functions satisfy all these notions of consistency. However, when selecting the indicators, in addition to consistency, analysts need to consider the risk of model extrapolation. For situations where such risk is under control, we utilize individual conditional expectations together with PD plots. Two applications, on a NASA space risk assessment model and a susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) model for the COVID‐19 pandemic illustrate the insights obtained from these indicators.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep Learning for Intelligent Bubble Size Detection in the Spallation Neutron Source Visual Target

The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) will undergo proton power upgrade (PPU), increasing the proton beam power from 1.4 MW to 2.8 MW. From 2.8 MW, 2.0 MW will go to the current First Target Station and the rest will go to the future Second Target Station (STS). The First Target Station uses a liquid mercury target that is contained in a 316L stainless steel vessel. The proton beam is pulsed at 60 Hz, with a pulse of about 0.7μs. When the proton beam hits the target, the intense energy deposition leads to a rapid rise in temperature in the mercury. This temperature rise creates pressure waves that propagate through the mercury and cause cavitation erosion. The power upgrade will cause stronger pressure waves that will further increase damage because of cavitation. Injecting small helium bubbles in the mercury has been an efficient method of mitigating the pressure wave at 1.4 MW. However, at higher power, additional mitigation is necessary. Therefore, the 2 MW target vessel will be equipped with swirl bubblers and an additional gas injection port near the nose to inject more gas in the target. To develop a gas injection strategy and design, flow visualization in water with a transparent prototypical target (“visual target”) was performed. Bubble sizes and their spatial distribution in the flow loop are crucial to understanding the effectiveness of the bubbles in mitigating pressure waves. Bubbles were generated in the visual target under varied conditions of input pressures with helium and air. Images were captured using a high-speed camera at varied frame rates at different positions away from the swirl bubbler and different depths in the flow loop under varying lighting conditions. Initially, methods such as circular Hough transforms were applied after a series of images processing to obtain a general distribution of bubble sizes. Bubbles smaller than 500 μm are preferred to effectively mitigate the effect of pressure waves, which demands an accurate bubble detection and sizing system. Intelligent detection and identification of bubble sizes alleviate misdetection and improves accuracies. Employing neural networks, intelligent detection of bubble sizes and their distribution was developed and provides a robust alternative to traditional techniques. Human intervention was employed to label in-focus and out-of-focus bubbles in the set of training images. An object detection network using a pretrained convolutional neural network was created that extracted the features from the training images. Data augmentation was used to improve network accuracy through a random transformation of the original data.

Rasheed, Fayaz↗

DOE OSTI2023

Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics

The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.

agent-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effect of frequency and applied voltage of an atmospheric-pressure dielectric-barrier discharge on breakdown and hydroxyl-radical generation with a liquid electrode

This work examines the effect of the frequency and peak applied voltage on hydroxyl-radical generation in a dielectric-barrier plasma discharge between a metallic needle electrode and one electrode covered with dielectric. The authors examine a system that can expose up to 96 liquid samples in an automated fashion without human intervention beyond setting the initial software configuration. Then, hydroxylradical concentration, measured through coumarin fluorescence, was measured for 5 s plasma exposures generated under different highvoltage conditions with frequencies from 2 to 16 kHz and amplitudes from 4 to 9 kV. Their results show that an increase in frequency and/or applied voltage, within the range prescribed above and the limits of the high-voltage power supply, can yield up to a 150% increase in fluorescence with an equivalent hydroxyl-radical increase. Applications using typical previous methods, such as the Fenton Reaction, are limited in that they continuously generate hydroxyl radicals over millisecond and longer intervals. These results establish the electrical parameters that can now be applied to polymers, like proteins, which show three dimensional structures that are flexible and fluctuate on a microsecond and nanosecond time scale, with hydroxyl-radical generation on this time scale using this device. Additionally, plasma exposures may be optimized for a great variety of proteins, devices and techniques, where hydroxyl-radical generation is of utmost importance, reducing exposure time and potential subjection of samples to harmful side effects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chatbots can guide experimentalists to avoid many common mistakes in measuring fluorescence spectra

The concepts of fluorescence spectroscopy are well established, yet the experimental collection of a spectrum is susceptible to a range of errors. A recent study showed that chatbots – derived from substantial advances in artificial intelligence – can provide practical assistance to the experimentalist during collection of absorption spectra and thereby achieve improved quality. Fluorescence, while the complement of absorption, is prone to a far richer array of experimental errors encompassing environmental factors, instrumental settings, and experimentalist mistakes. Here, 10 chatbots (ChatGPT 5, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Microsoft Copilot, Meta AI Llama 4, Claude Sonnet 4.5, X.ai Grok 4, Perplexity Pro, DeepSeek V3.1, Z.ai GLM-4.6, and KIMI K2) have been evaluated for the suitability in providing quality-improvement advice to the experimentalist during acquisition of fluorescence spectra. Significant opportunities for practical assistance are noted, although intervention by a domain expert is often required. Here, if combined with image recognition and/or signal processing, chatbots embedded in instruments may enable real-time guidance during fluorescence data acquisition.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2026

YOLO11 to SAM2 pipeline for feature extraction from nuclear test films

The response to the effects of nuclear detonations is supported by models that describe the evolution of the nuclear fireball and cloud and the associated transport of active debris. Validation of those descriptions relies on data from the nuclear test operations. Video records of those events offer a rich source of information that was exploited to a limited extent in historic analyses. Computer vision and machine learning techniques are powerful tools that can be used to increase the number of measurements that can be obtained from those films. In this work, we apply computer vision techniques to automatically track the temporal evolution of the nuclear fireball. In particular, we apply You Only Look Once 11 (YOLO11) and Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2) in combination with minimal human intervention to digitized versions of the original nuclear test films. As part of the proposed workflow, the YOLO11 model is applied to films to determine bounding boxes for the fireball within each frame. These are then used as inputs to SAM2, which uses image segmentation to determine the fireball boundaries and their temporal evolution. We assess the accuracy of our approach by using it to determine the energy released during the Trinity nuclear test and comparing the results with previous analyses based on manual measurements.

Van Exel, Kimberly [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000877463894)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Structural basis for selective modification of Rho and Ras GTPases by Clostridioides difficile toxin B

Toxin B (TcdB) is a primary cause of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI). This toxin acts by glucosylating small GTPases in the Rho/Ras families, but the structural basis for TcdB recognition and selectivity of specific GTPase substrates remain unsolved. Here, we report the cocrystal structures of the glucosyltransferase domain (GTD) of two distinct TcdB variants in complex with human Cdc42 and R-Ras, respectively. These structures reveal a common structural mechanism by which TcdB recognizes Rho and R-Ras. Furthermore, we find selective clustering of adaptive residue changes in GTDs that determine their substrate preferences, which helps partition all known TcdB variants into two groups that display distinct specificities toward Rho or R-Ras. Mutations that selectively disrupt GTPases binding reduce the glucosyltransferase activity of the GTD and the toxicity of TcdB holotoxin. These findings establish the structural basis for TcdB recognition of small GTPases and reveal strategies for therapeutic interventions for CDI.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Unified epigenomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic taxonomy of Alzheimer’s disease progression and heterogeneity

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a heterogeneous disorder with abnormalities in multiple biological domains. In an advanced machine learning analysis of postmortem brain and in vivo blood multi-omics molecular data ( N = 1863), we integrated epigenomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic profiles into a multilevel biological AD taxonomy. We obtained a personalized multilevel molecular index of AD dementia progression that predicts severity of neuropathologies, and identified three robust molecular-based subtypes that explain much of the pathologic and clinical heterogeneity of AD. These subtypes present distinct patterns of alteration in DNA methylation, RNA, proteins, and metabolites, identifiable in the brain and subsequently in blood. In addition, the genetic variations that predispose to the various AD subtypes in brain predict distinct spatial patterns of alteration in cell types, suggesting a unique influence of each putative AD variant on neuropathological mechanisms. These observations support that an individually tailored multi-omics molecular taxonomy of AD may represent distinct targets for preventive or treatment interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous discovery of emergent morphologies in directed self-assembly of block copolymer blends

The directed self-assembly (DSA) of block copolymers (BCPs) is a powerful approach to fabricate complex nanostructure arrays, but finding morphologies that emerge with changes in polymer architecture, composition, or assembly constraints remains daunting because of the increased dimensionality of the DSA design space. Here, we demonstrate machine-guided discovery of emergent morphologies from a cylinder/lamellae BCP blend directed by a chemical grating template, conducted without direct human intervention on a synchrotron x-ray scattering beamline. This approach maps the morphology-template phase space in a fraction of the time required by manual characterization and highlights regions deserving more detailed investigation. These studies reveal localized, template-directed partitioning of coexisting lamella- and cylinder-like subdomains at the template period length scale, manifesting as previously unknown morphologies such as aligned alternating subdomains, bilayers, or a “ladder” morphology. This work underscores the pivotal role that autonomous characterization can play in advancing the paradigm of DSA.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ampk alpha2 T172 activation dictates exercise performance and energy transduction in skeletal muscle

Adenosine 5′-monophosphate–activated protein kinase (AMPK) is an energetic sensor for metabolic regulation and integration. Here, we used CRISPR-Cas9 to generate nonactivatable Ampkα knock-in (KI) mice with mutation of threonine-172 phosphorylation site to alanine (T172A), circumventing the limitations of previous genetic interventions that disrupt the protein stoichiometry. KI mice of Ampkα2, but not Ampkα1, demonstrated phenotypic changes with increased fat-to-lean mass, impaired endurance exercise capacity, and diminished mitochondrial maximal respiration and conductance in skeletal muscle. Integrated temporal multiomics analysis (proteomics/phosphoproteomics/metabolomics) in skeletal muscle at rest and during exercise establishes a pleiotropic yet imperative role of Ampkα2 T172 activation for glycolytic and oxidative metabolism, mitochondrial respiration, and contractile function. There is a substantial overlap of skeletal muscle proteomic changes in Ampkα2 T172A KI mice with that of patients with type 2 diabetes. Our findings suggest that Ampkα2 T172 activation is critical for exercise performance and energy transduction in skeletal muscle and may serve as a therapeutic target for type 2 diabetes.

Bioenergetics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Systems Analysis of NADH Dehydrogenase Mutants Reveals Flexibility and Limits of Pseudomonas taiwanensis VLB120’s Metabolism

Obligate aerobic organisms rely on a functional electron transport chain for energy conservation and NADH oxidation. Because of this essential requirement, the genes of this pathway are likely constitutively and highly expressed to avoid a cofactor imbalance and energy shortage under fluctuating environmental conditions. In this work, we investigated the essentiality of the three NADH dehydrogenases of the respiratory chain of the obligate aerobe Pseudomonas taiwanensis VLB120 and the impact of the knockouts of corresponding genes on its physiology and metabolism. While a mutant lacking all three NADH dehydrogenases seemed to be nonviable, the single or double knockout mutant strains displayed no, or only a weak, phenotype. Only the mutant deficient in both type 2 dehydrogenases showed a clear phenotype with biphasic growth behavior and a strongly reduced growth rate in the second phase. In-depth analyses of the metabolism of the generated mutants, including quantitative physiological experiments, transcript analysis, proteomics, and enzyme activity assays revealed distinct responses to type 2 and type 1 dehydrogenase deletions. An overall high metabolic flexibility enables P. taiwanensis to cope with the introduced genetic perturbations and maintain stable phenotypes, likely by rerouting of metabolic fluxes. This metabolic adaptability has implications for biotechnological applications. While the phenotypic robustness is favorable in large-scale applications with inhomogeneous conditions, the possible versatile redirecting of carbon fluxes upon genetic interventions can thwart metabolic engineering efforts. While Pseudomonas has the capability for high metabolic activity and the provision of reduced redox cofactors important for biocatalytic applications, exploitation of this characteristic might be hindered by high, constitutive activity of and, consequently, competition with the NADH dehydrogenases of the respiratory chain. The in-depth analysis of NADH dehydrogenase mutants of Pseudomonas taiwanensis VLB120 presented here provides insight into the phenotypic and metabolic response of this strain to these redox metabolism perturbations. This high degree of metabolic flexibility needs to be taken into account for rational engineering of this promising biotechnological workhorse toward a host with a controlled and efficient supply of redox cofactors for product synthesis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimating the Timing of Early Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections: a Comparison between Poisson Fitter and BEAST

Many HIV prevention strategies are currently under consideration where it is highly informative to know the study participants’ times of infection. These can be estimated using viral sequence data sampled early in infection. However, there are several scenarios that, if not addressed, can skew timing estimates. These include multiple transmitted/founder (TF) viruses, APOBEC (apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide-like)-mediated mutational enrichment, and recombination. Here, we suggest a pipeline to identify these problems and resolve the biases that they introduce. We then compare two modeling strategies to obtain timing estimates from sequence data. The first, Poisson Fitter (PF), is based on a Poisson model of random accumulation of mutations relative to the TF virus (or viruses) that established the infection. The second uses a coalescence-based phylogenetic strategy as implemented in BEAST. The comparison is based on timing predictions using plasma viral RNA (cDNA) sequence data from 28 simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV)-infected animals for which the exact day of infection is known. In this particular setting, based on nucleotide sequences from samples obtained in early infection, the Poisson method yielded more accurate, more precise, and unbiased estimates for the time of infection than did the explored implementations of BEAST. The inference of the time of infection is a critical parameter in testing the efficacy of clinical interventions in protecting against HIV-1 infection. For example, in clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of passively delivered antibodies (Abs) for preventing infections, accurate time of infection data are essential for discerning levels of the Abs required to confer protection, given the natural Ab decay rate in the human body. In such trials, genetic sequences from early in the infection are regularly sampled from study participants, generally prior to immune selection, when the viral population is still expanding and genetic diversity is low. In this particular setting of early viral growth, the Poisson method is superior to the alternative approach based on coalescent methods. This approach can also be applied in human vaccine trials, where accurate estimates of infection times help ascertain if vaccine-elicited immune protection wanes over time.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗