Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “integrative modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Axially Symmetric E-Lens Based on McMillan Map

In this work, we investigate the transverse dynamics of a single particle in a model integrable accelerator lattice, based on a McMillan axially symmetric electron lens. Although the McMillan e-lens has been considered as a device potentially capable of mitigating collective space charge forces, some of its fundamental properties have not been described yet. The main goal of our work is to close this gap and understand the limitations and potential of this device. We classify possible regimes with stable trajectories and provide set of canonical action-angle variables, along with an evaluation of the dynamical aperture, Poincar\'e rotation numbers as functions of amplitudes, and spread in nonlinear tunes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nested Pebble Bed Blanket (NesPeB)

Recent advances in magnetic confinement fusion technology have attracted billions of dollars of investments in startups from venture capitals and corporations, resulting in the development of devices aiming to demonstrate net energy gain in a self-heated burning plasma, such as SPARC (under construction) and others. However, future fusion power plants must operate in regimes that will require technologies far beyond current experience. According to a National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine report, to have nuclear fusion power plants contributing in a timely manner to the planned reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a pilot plant should be built by 2035, and it should demonstrate fusion power production and the performance of the tritium fuel system (requiring a high enough tritium breeding) by 2040. A recognized key technology gap by [26] is the fusion first wall and blanket since no current blanket concept is considered satisfactory or has been built and proven. The first wall and blanket in magnetic fusion reactors form a vital and complex system, as it must satisfy different functions such as power extraction, tritium breeding, plasma containment, radiation shielding, and safety. The list of design requirements is even longer: high enough tritium production for fusion self-sufficiency, low material activation, decay heat and shutdown dose rates, high thermal efficiency, high-capacity factor, high magnets-divertor-vacuum vessel-first wall life, low corrosion, low cost, and intrinsically safe (requiring minimal licensing). Despite fifty-plus years of research, the first wall and blanket concepts proposed suffer from fundamental technical problems and immaturity (TRL=2-3) that jeopardize the timely delivery of a commercial fusion power plant. A fusion first-wall blanket has never been built nor tested, and a "winning", practical functioning design requires enough engineering margins (high enough tritium breeding considering the uncertainty, etc.), manufacturing simplicity, ease of continuous operation, maintenance, and low cost. A new, groundbreaking blanket concept called "Nested Pebble Bed Blanket" (NesPeB) was developed at ORNL under the successful ARPA-E GAMOW FERMI project (patent application allowed by the USPTO). The NesPeB blanket concept addresses current blanket concepts' shortcomings and technical immaturity, paving the way for accelerated delivery of fusion power plants. NesPeB is based on nested pebbles, which are binary-sized lithium-ceramic pebbles enclosed in "Beryllide" perforated and coated spherical shells, which are also binary-sized, stacked on top of each other, forming a "bed" and cooled by Nitrogen gas also "sweeping" the Helium and Tritium generated by the neutron irradiation of Lithium; the vacuum vessel plasma facing material is Molybdenum-96 and -97 with the first wall cooled by Helium while the divertor armor is made of Tungsten. The simulations of the NesPeB blanket using Fusion Reactors Models Integrator (FERMI) are encouraging as they estimate a tritium breeding ratio (TBR) greater than 1.2 using natural Lithium, acceptable pressure drop, and excellent heat transfer properties. Furthermore, the NesPeB blanket is not limited by magneto-hydro-dynamics (MHD) effects, is designed for online refueling, relies on existing tritium extraction technologies, has a simple construction, and limits the corrosion and chemical reactivity problems. NesPeB has the potential to be transformational and disruptive since it can solve all the main, challenging technical problems of fusion device blankets and accelerate a pilot plant delivery for 10 or more years.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Desert-Urban System Integrated Atmospheric Monsoon (DUSTIEAIM) in the Southwestern United States Science Plan

The Desert-Urban System Integrated Atmospheric Monsoon (DUSTIEAIM) campaign is a groundbreaking, high-impact scientific mission that will transform how we understand and respond to energy and water challenges in one of America’s fastest-growing and most heat-stressed urban regions: Phoenix, Arizona. Starting in April 2026, this 18-month field campaign harnesses the full power of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility and an interdisciplinary science team including national laboratories, universities, and agencies with a broad range of subject-matter expertise. With cutting-edge instruments, active and passive ground-based sensors, radars, and integrated modeling, DUSTIEAIM will deliver the most comprehensive environmental data set ever collected for a desert-urban-agricultural interface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Infrasonic Signatures of Earth-Grazing Fireballs as Analogues to Hypersonic Vehicles (Final Report)

Accurate detection, discrimination, and characterization of high-altitude hypersonic events using infrasonic monitoring are critical to planetary defense and global strategic surveillance. This report synthesizes recent advances achieved through rigorous analysis of infrasonic signatures from natural meteoroids, emphasizing shallow entry-angle meteoroids as essentially proxies for artificial hypersonic systems. Meteoroids naturally encompass diverse velocities, trajectories, altitudes, and fragmentation behaviors, enabling systematic validation of empirical period–yield relationships, waveform morphology classifiers, and trajectory-induced back-azimuth deviation models. Integration of adaptive array-processing enhancements within Cardinal software further extends infrasonic detection sensitivity and signal classification reliability. Collectively these advances, based solely on infrasonic signatures or limited optical data, offer robust methodologies for distinguishing natural from artificial hypersonic sources, significantly reducing event geolocation uncertainties and refining source-function determination. The outcomes detailed herein lay foundational groundwork for improved global hypersonic event-surveillance frameworks, supporting improved security preparedness and informing strategic monitoring and defense policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cybersecurity Center for Offshore Wind Energy (Final Project Report)

This project establishes a Cybersecurity Center for Offshore Wind Energy with the objective of designing and operating a cyber-physical testbed for wind energy farms (WEFs) that enables comprehensive cybersecurity research. The testbed incorporates a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system connected to turbine models via industrial-grade programmable logic controllers (PLCs) and remote terminal units (RTUs). It supports side-channel data acquisition, implementation and analysis of various cyberattack scenarios, and development of attack detection, mitigation, and best-practice guidance tailored to wind energy systems. During the project, the team expanded the number and fidelity of mathematical turbine models (MTMs), integrated these models with SCADA infrastructure, and deployed a scaled physical turbine and associated sensors. High-resolution operational and side-channel data streams were collected and used to refine machine-learning (ML)-based attack detection systems and to extend the WindCRAFT framework to multi-turbine threat scenarios. The project demonstrated a realistic, scalable environment for evaluating cyber threats, validated attack detection approaches using enriched datasets, and identified new multi-turbine and inter-turbine communication attack vectors. The resulting testbed, models, and security mechanisms provide a foundation for ongoing R&D and deployment of cyber-resilient offshore wind energy systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Competitive Metabolism of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs): An Assessment Using In Vitro Metabolism and Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modeling

Humans are routinely exposed to complex mixtures such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) rather than to single compounds, as are often assessed for hazards. Cytochrome P450 enzymes (CYPs) metabolize PAHs, and multiple PAHs found in mixtures can compete as substrates for individual CYPs (e.g., CYP1A1, CYP1B1, etc.). The objective of this study was to assess competitive inhibition of metabolism of PAH mixtures in humans and evaluate a key assumption of the Relative Potency Factor approach that common human exposures will not cause interactions among mixture components. To test this objective, we co-incubated binary mixtures of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) and dibenzo[def,p]chrysene (DBC) in human hepatic microsomes and measured rates of enzymatic BaP and DBC disappearance. We observed competitive inhibition of BaP and DBC metabolism and measured inhibition coefficients (K i ), observing that BaP inhibited DBC metabolism more potently than DBC inhibited BaP metabolism (0.061 vs. 0.44 µM K i , respectively). We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) interaction model by integrating PBPK models of DBC and BaP and incorporating measured metabolism inhibition coefficients. The PBPK model predicts significant increases in BaP and DBC concentrations in blood AUCs following high oral doses of PAHs (≥100 mg), five orders of magnitude higher than typical human exposures. We also measured inhibition coefficients of Supermix-10, a mixture of the most abundant PAHs measured at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, on BaP and DBC metabolism. We observed similar potencies of inhibition coefficients of Supermix-10 compared to BaP and DBC. Overall, results of this study demonstrate that these PAHs compete for the same enzymes and, at high doses, inhibit metabolism and alter internal dosimetry of exposed PAHs. This approach predicts that BaP and DBC exposures required to observe metabolic interaction are much higher than typical human exposures, consistent with assumptions used when applying the Relative Potency Factor approach for PAH mixture risk assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Systematic identification of cis -regulatory variants that cause gene expression differences in a yeast cross

Sequence variation in regulatory DNA alters gene expression and shapes genetically complex traits. However, the identification of individual, causal regulatory variants is challenging. Here, we used a massively parallel reporter assay to measure the cis-regulatory consequences of 5832 natural DNA variants in the promoters of 2503 genes in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We identified 451 causal variants, which underlie genetic loci known to affect gene expression. Several promoters harbored multiple causal variants. In five promoters, pairs of variants showed non-additive, epistatic interactions. Causal variants were enriched at conserved nucleotides, tended to have low derived allele frequency, and were depleted from promoters of essential genes, which is consistent with the action of negative selection. Causal variants were also enriched for alterations in transcription factor binding sites. Models integrating these features provided modest, but statistically significant, ability to predict causal variants. This work revealed a complex molecular basis for cis-acting regulatory variation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictions of core plasma performance for the SPARC tokamak

SPARC is designed to be a high-field, medium-size tokamak aimed at achieving net energy gain with Ion Cyclotron Range-of-Frequencies (ICRF) as its primary auxiliary heating mechanism. Empirical predictions with conservative physics indicate that SPARC baseline plasmas would reach Q~11, well above its mission objective of Q>2. To build confidence that SPARC will be successful, physics-based integrated modeling has also been performed. The TRANSP code coupled with the theory-based TGLF turbulence model and EPED predictions for pedestal stability find that Q~9 is attainable in standard H-mode operation and confirms Q>2 operation is feasible even with adverse assumptions. In this analysis, ion cyclotron waves are simulated with the full wave TORIC code and alpha heating is modeled with the Monte-Carlo fast ion NUBEAM module. Detailed analysis of expected turbulence regimes with linear and nonlinear CGYRO simulations is also presented, demonstrating that profile predictions with the TGLF reduced model are in reasonable agreement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate-Water-Electricity Interactions in the U.S. Under Alternative Decarbonized Futures

The U.S. electric sector is rapidly evolving, with widespread renewable energy deployment, building and transport electrification, and nuanced decarbonization policies. Climate change influences the supply and demand for electricity by altering water resources for cooling and hydropower, thermal plant efficiencies, and heating and cooling demand. This research combines global climate model data, asset-level water and streamflow modeling, and electric sector capacity expansion modeling to study climate-water-electricity interactions across myriad future climate and electricity scenarios that consider electrification and decarbonization using renewable, hydrogen, carbon capture, and nuclear technologies. Multi-model integration leads to insights into power-water sector interactions and their impacts on grid economics and environmental outcomes.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Computational Framework for Multiphysics Multiphase Species Tracking using NEAMS Tools

This report implements a high-fidelity multiphysics modeling framework using the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program tools to track isotopic species in Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs), with a specific focus on the 91-depletion chain within the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE). The model integrates neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, depletion, and thermochemistry to simulate the production, transport, and phase transitions of isotopes under steady-state and transient conditions. The main findings reveal that isotopes such as bromine-91 largely remain in the liquid phase, while others, including krypton-91and yttrium-91, transition to the gas phase, significantly influencing the reactor’s radiological source term. The study also shows that during transients, like a reactivity insertion transient, rapid void formation and the expansion of the liquid-gas interface led to substantial transfers of dissolved isotopes into the gas phase, altering isotope distribution and largely increasing the source term in the off-gas system. Additionally, the research highlights that short-lived isotopes dominate the initial off-gas response during transients, while longer-lived isotopes determine the equilibrium state, underscoring the necessity of dynamic simulations for accurate species tracking and reactor safety analysis. The developed methodology will be applied in the future to the tracking of a larger number of species and introduce other species tracking mechanisms, such as deposition and plating.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Supporting Fusion at the Idaho National Laboratory

The Fusion Safety Program at Idaho National Laboratory has supported efforts to develop magnetic and inertial confinement fusion energy devices for commercial energy power development since 1979. In addition to our DOE less than hazard category 3 tritium handling facility STAR, we also have unique capabilities such as an adaptation of the severe accident code MELCOR developed specifically for fusion, and integrated modeling capabilities using the MOOSE Finite Element Code. In this presentation, we cover our unique experimental capabilities for investigating tritium sorption, solubility and permeation including in molten salts. We also show the application of MELCOR-TMAP to predict thermal hydraulics and tritium migration in normal and accident conditions. Finally, we demonstrate high-fidelity modeling capabilities found within the open-source MOOSE finite element framework as well as fuel-cycle modeling using TMAP8.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Engineering Framework for Species Tracking in MSRs Involving Fuel Salt and Structures

This report implements a high-fidelity multiphysics modeling framework using the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program tools to track leaching and plating of materials between the fuel salt and structures in Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). Specifically, this framework is demonstrated in modeling various processes within MSRs including hot and cold leg corrosion, redox potential driven corrosion, colloid precipitation and deposition, and noble metal plating and decay heat modeling. The model integrates neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, depletion, and thermochemistry to simulate the evolving chemical behavior of the fuel salt in interactions with structural materials. Initial findings suggest that hot-cold leg corrosion in MSR systems may become significant if the redox potential of the fuel salt is not sufficiently controlled. Additionally, the impact of noble metal decay heat deposition in large power reactors is explored. The resulting engineering framework for species tracking will be applied in the future toward specific validation work with ongoing experimental efforts focusing on both chloride and fluoride salt loop experiments with in-situ corrosion and redox control instrumentation.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Integrated Thermal Fluids Modeling Capability for MSRs

The DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program supports a full range of computational thermal fluids analysis capabilities and code developments for a broad class of light-water and advanced reactor concepts. The research and development approach under thermal fluids technical area synergistically combines three length and time scales in a hierarchal multi-scale approach. To demonstrate the feasibility and capabilities of a multi-scale thermal fluids capability using these codes, a key joint effort has been pursued to develop an integrated system-and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability with the MOOSE-based codes, through integration of SAM and Pronghorn, both based on the MOOSE framework. This report summarizes the progress in developing an integrated system- and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability based on SAM and Pronghorn for molten salt reactors (MSRs), which gained significant interest in recently years. Two coupling approaches were studied, i.e. separate domain or domain-segregated coupling approach and the domain-overlapping approach. A series of coupled multi-physics models have been developed for a common reference molten salt fast reactor (MSFR) concept, ranging from standalone SAM system model to integrated SAM-Pronghorn-Griffin models. Both the steady state and the transient simulations are performed to the state-of-the-art simulation capabilities of NEAMS software suite in MSFR system applications. This report also covers further development and testing of the gas transport model in SAM for MSR modeling support. The presence of noncondensable gas in MSR systems would have strong impacts on fission gas removal and transport of noble metals throughout the system. Fission products removed through the off-gas system can also impact reactivity and can act as an additional point of heat removal. To ensure that the gas transport model is adequately tested, the supported modeling capabilities and features of SAM were identified, and a suite of tests were developed to test the model for each identified feature. Validation and UQ testing were also performed for the model and demonstrated that the buoyancy term, which was originally developed using non-salt/helium gas experimental data, can capture the experimental gas bubble velocity and diameter to within experimental and code uncertainty. An existing MSRE model was also modified in this work to include the gas transport model and to demonstrate the gas model behavior for realistic conditions of interest.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Integration of Predictive Models for Manufacturing and Structural Performance of Carbon Fiber Composites in Automotive Applications (Final Report)

The goal of this project is to develop integrated, state-of-the-art, computational modeling tools based on an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) methodology that are critically needed to enable structural carbon fiber (CF) applications in automobiles. These tools are designed to predict the manufacturing and structural performance of CF composites, including stochastic effects. During the first phase of the project, the manufacturing and structural performance tools, including a stochastic driver, were developed, calibrated, and validated against coupon and component level test results. For this project, from the manufacturing side, the development efforts were focused on high-pressure resin transfer molding (HP-RTM), a potentially game-changing manufacturing technology that is capable of reaching the 3-5-minute cycle time that is necessary for volume manufacturing of composites. On the structural performance side, the crashworthiness of CF structures was studied. Accordingly, computational tools were developed and validated. The resulting differences between the numerical predictions and the experimental results in the first phase of the project were required to be less than 15%. During the second phase of the project, the manufacturing and performance tools were integrated by mapping the manufacturing outcomes (e.g., fiber angles, residual stresses, degree of cure, and defects) into the structural models. Also, using the tools developed in this project, an automotive assembly currently manufactured in steel (2016 GM Malibu) was redesigned to be manufactured using advanced CF composites with the objective of comparing the performance of the CF assembly with the developed ICME model predictions. The weight, performance and cost of the CF assembly were compared with the baseline steel assembly as well. The CF underbody design was shown to be 30% lighter than the corresponding steel design. The CF underbody assembly withstood the side pole impact with less than half the intrusion for the steel assembly. Excellent correlations within 10% for both peak impact load and intrusion were observed between the numerical predictions and experimental results. Based on the cost models developed in the project, the cost increase per Kg saved was determined to be $22. The project team has prepared a total of 28 publications in various journals and conferences and broadly communicated the project results for the benefit of the composite industry. The project team has also prepared a total of 10 patent applications that were submitted to the US Patent and Trademark office.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cross-scale modeling and experimental integration for advancing cathode electrolyte interphase studies in high energy density lithium-ion batteries

Electrochemical interfaces are critical to the performance and durability of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The solid electrode-electrolyte interphase (SEI and CEI) structures that form during cycling can passivate reactive surfaces, ensuring safe operation, but also may contribute to performance degradation. Understanding the microscopic factors influencing interphase formation, growth, and evolution is essential for balanced battery design. While significant research has focused on the anode-electrolyte interphase (SEI), the cathode-electrolyte interphase (CEI) remains less explored, despite its importance in high-voltage and advanced battery technologies. Challenges in conducting in-situ or operando experiments arise from the occluded nature of these interfaces and the long timescales involved, often leading to biased interpretations. A validated multi-scale, multi-physics modeling approach, integrated with advanced characterization techniques, can effectively elucidate the intrinsic stability of electrolyte and cathode surfaces, the impact of chemical heterogeneity, and the role of microstructural features on CEI performance. In conclusion, this article reviews current modeling and simulation strategies for studying CEI in advanced LIBs and highlights opportunities for future methodological advancements and experimental integration.

Cathode-electrolyte interphase↗
DOE OSTI2023

Virtual Engineering Software Framework for Integrated Biomass Conversion Modeling

This presentation covers the design and implementation of a software tool to systematically connect computational models of unit operations to simulate an integrated process of low-temperature conversion of biomass to fuel. This virtual engineering (VE) software was designed with the overarching goal of connecting unit models written in various programming languages and requiring different computational resources within a single, flexible framework. The models and features currently considered for the VE library include mechanistic models for pretreatment, enzymatic hydrolysis, and aerobic bioreaction; high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for enzymatic hydrolysis and aerobic bioreaction; and the capability to perform techno-economic analyses (TEA) using Aspen Plus, a commercial software package. The CFD models require access to high-performance computing (HPC) resources, so in addition to handling multiple programming languages and interfaces, the VE software must also be capable of interacting with an HPC scheduler to submit, run, and post-process jobs. Using the Python programming language, a new VE software package has been developed that contains functionality to manage the input-output communication between various unit models, schedule simulations to run on NREL's HPC and analyze those results, and interface with existing TEA software workflows. A Jupyter-notebook GUI was also created to solicit user input and provide documentation. In cases where multiple models for a particular unit-operation exist, selection between models is accomplished through a simple checkbox, with the appropriate inputs and outputs being parsed and converted seamlessly in the background. Each operation makes use of a different programming language, but the flow of information from pretreatment to enzymatic hydrolysis to bioreaction is managed with an intuitive, centralized file-communication strategy. In this talk, the programming approach and implementation details of the notebook are presented for multiple possibilities of the conversion process, including a demonstration of the ability to manage HPC resources. Additionally, an example of a sensitivity study of treatment parameters governing the overall conversion outcome is shown which highlights the ease of defining new problems using the VE Notebook workflow and leads into a discussion of ongoing work to enable outer-loop optimization studies.

biofuel↗
DOE OSTI2019

A cash flow model of an integrated industrial CCS-EOR project in a petrochemical corridor: A case study in Louisiana

Petroleum refineries and petrochemical plants are major CO 2 sources, however, they are also significant capital and employment assets that are unlikely to be replaced in the near term. As a result, nations and states that are interested in reducing the carbon intensity of their economies will need to find ways to reduce the emissions of their existing industrial capacity. Industrial carbon capture provides one potential mechanism for reducing the carbon intensity of existing industrial facilities, however, an economically feasible capture system requires that the captured CO 2 be integrated into a system of transport and storage with income generated either through tax credits, enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or both. Here, we present a cash-flow model of an integrated system with industrial capture, pipeline transport, and EOR, and we parameterize the model with data from Louisiana. Given a 50/bbl oil price, an integrated capture, transport and EOR system that uses ethylene oxide production, ammonia production, or natural gas processing as sources is predicted to have a net present value of about $500 million; hydrogen-based capture has a cash flow of -214 given the same assumptions. Further, we find that the recent 45Q Tax Credit expansion has a positive impact on the cash flow of the system but does not change the overall profitability of the systems under the specified assumptions such that without the tax credits natural gas processing, ammonia production and ethylene oxide production-based capture systems remain cost-effective, while hydrogen-based capture remains unprofitable with or without the tax credit.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grid-Integrated Electric Mobility Model (GEM) v1.0

Transportation is the fastest-growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption globally. The convergence of shared mobility, vehicle automation, and electrification has the potential to drastically reduce transportation impacts, but requires careful integration with rapidly evolving electricity systems. We have developed the GEM Model (Grid-Integrated Electric Mobility) to examine these interactions with a U.S.-wide simulation framework encompassing private electric vehicles (EVs); shared automated EVs (SAEVs); charging infrastructure; controlled EV charging; and a grid economic dispatch model to simulate mobility futures exclusively using EVs. We find that an SAEV fleet 9% the size of today's active vehicles can satisfy trip demand with only 2.6 million chargers (0.2 per EV). Controlled EV charging can also reduce electricity demand variability, significantly reducing GHG emissions and decreasing solar curtailment by about one-third. While private EVs with uncontrolled charging would reduce GHG emissions by 53% compared to gasoline vehicles, SAEVs could achieve a 70% reduction.

Sheppard, Colin↗