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At least 523 records · Page 29

Forte: An Interactive Visual Analytic Tool for Trust-Augmented Net-Load Forecasting

Accurate net-load forecasting is vital for energy planning, aiding decisions on trade and load distribution. However, assessing the performance of forecasting models across diverse input variables, like temperature and humidity, remains challenging, particularly for eliciting a high degree of trust in the model outcomes. In this context, there is a growing need for data-driven technological interventions to aid scientists in comprehending how models react to both noisy and clean input variables, thus shedding light on complex behaviors and fostering confidence in the outcomes. In this paper, we present Forte, a visual analytics-based application to explore deep probabilistic net-load forecasting models across various input variables and understand the error rates for different scenarios. With carefully designed visual interventions, this web-based interface empowers scientists to derive insights about model performance by simulating diverse scenarios, facilitating an informed decision-making process. We discuss observations made using Forte and demonstrate the effectiveness of visualization techniques to provide valuable insights into the correlation between weather inputs and net-load forecasts, ultimately advancing grid capabilities by improving trust in forecasting models.

Bhattacharjee, Kaustav↗

Using Temporal Information from Human Mobility Data to Detect Anchor Points

Spatiotemporal mobility data are available in massive quantities, but large quantities of data typically include fewer variables or data fields. Often, the only available fields are User ID, Longitude, Latitude, Timestamp (ULLT). This raises an important question: how much can we infer about human mobility patterns using only these four fields? With ULLT data, we do not know individuals' socioeconomic status information or when they are visiting their anchor points (AP) or locations (such as homes, places of employment, or schools), and it is a modern challenge to use this data to infer these characteristics. When detecting anchor locations with limited input information, verification and validation (VV) are significant challenges. This paper addresses the problem of identifying individuals' anchor locations using only temporal information from spatiotemporal datasets with limited attributes. Our approach does not explicitly use latitude and longitude during analysis. Locationbased information is only employed in the preprocessing stage to identify periods of movement (trips) and stops (dwelling). Beyond this step, all analysis is based on temporal patterns. In theory, if stops and dwell times could be detected through alternative means, our method could function entirely without location-based input. We demonstrate this methodology on the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data, because it includes a carefully designed and collected time use survey with representative sampling and labeled ground truth. The high-quality survey data allows us to test the accuracy of our methods because NHTS contains intended place labels and agent/user characteristics. We have also applied our validated AP identification algorithm on very large-scale GPS based trajectory data for Patterns-of-Life (PoL) assessment and other applications, but due to space limit that could not be presented here.

McBride, Liz [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000286925869)↗

Safe and Robust Binary Classification and Fault Detection Using Reinforcement Learning

In this paper, we propose a learning-based method utilizing the Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm to train a binary Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. This classifier is designed to identify valid input spaces in high-dimensional, highly constrained systems while minimizing the total runtime of offline simulations. The simulations adapt their runtime based on the likelihood that a given training input will be informative to the classifier. Furthermore, we introduce a method for using the trained SAC model to predict whether a desired system input is likely to violate constraints, along with a technique to adjust the input as necessary. Additionally, we explore the potential of this model to detect faults or adversarial attacks within the system. The effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated through various simulations of challenging classification problems and a constrained quadrotor model.

Netter, Josh [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atl↗

Quantifying the robustness of deep multispectral segmentation models against natural perturbations and data poisoning

In overhead image segmentation tasks, including additional spectral bands beyond the traditional RGB channels can improve model performance. However, it is still unclear how incorporating this additional data impacts model robustness to adversarial attacks and natural perturbations. For adversarial robustness, the additional in-formation could improve the model’s ability to distinguish malicious inputs, or simply provide new attack avenues and vulnerabilities. For natural perturbations, the additional information could better inform model decisions and weaken perturbation effects or have no significant influence at all. In this work, we seek to characterize the performance and robustness of a multispectral (RGB and near infrared) image segmentation model subjected to adversarial attacks and natural perturbations. While existing adversarial and natural robustness research has focused primarily on digital perturbations, we prioritize on creating realistic perturbations designed with physical world conditions in mind. For adversarial robustness, we focus on data poisoning attacks whereas for natural robustness, we focus on extending ImageNet-C common corruptions for fog and snow that coherently and self-consistently perturbs the input data. Overall, we find both RGB and multispectral models are vulnerable to data poisoning attacks regardless of input or fusion architectures and that while physically-realizable natural perturbations still degrade model performance, the impact differs based on fusion architecture and input data.

Deep learning, multispectral images, multimodal fu↗

Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation

Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine Learning-enabled Scalable Performance Prediction of Scientific Codes

Hardware architectures become increasingly complex as the compute capabilities grow to exascale. Here, we present the Analytical Memory Model with Pipelines (AMMP) of the Performance Prediction Toolkit (PPT). PPT-AMMP takes high-level source code and hardware architecture parameters as input and predicts runtime of that code on the target hardware platform, which is defined in the input parameters. PPT-AMMP transforms the code to an (architecture-independent) intermediate representation, then (i) analyzes the basic block structure of the code, (ii) processes architecture-independent virtual memory access patterns that it uses to build memory reuse distance distribution models for each basic block, and (iii) runs detailed basic-block level simulations to determine hardware pipeline usage. PPT-AMMP uses machine learning and regression techniques to build the prediction models based on small instances of the input code, then integrates into a higher-order discrete-event simulation model of PPT running on Simian PDES engine. We validate PPT-AMMP on four standard computational physics benchmarks and present a use case of hardware parameter sensitivity analysis to identify bottleneck hardware resources on different code inputs. We further extend PPT-AMMP to predict the performance of a scientific application code, namely, the radiation transport mini-app SNAP. To this end, we analyze multi-variate regression models that accurately predict the reuse profiles and the basic block counts. We validate predicted SNAP runtimes against actual measured times.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Online distributed price-based control of DR resources with competitive guarantees

Demand response (DR) of building HVAC load can provide crucial demand-side flexibility for the future smart grid. Compared to direct load control, price-based control can respect the customers’ autonomy and privacy. However, it is challenging for price-based control to attain provable performance guarantees under future uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a framework for a utility to perform price-based control of flexible building load within the utility’s service area, in order to attain competitive performance guarantees in terms of controlling the system peak demand under future uncertainty. By adopting a two-step approach, our online price-based control solution can attain a provable competitive ratio for all possible realizations within a given uncertainty set. Simulation experiments demonstrate that, with a robustification procedure, our solution can perform well not only for worst-case inputs, but also for average-case inputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

spdlayers

Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) enforcement layers for PyTorch. Regardless of the input, the output of these layers will always be a SPD tensor! The `Cholesky` layer uses a cholesky factorization to enforce SPD, and the `Eigen` layer uses an eigendecomposition to enforce SPD. Both layers take in some tensor of shape `[batch_size, input_shape]` and output a SPD tensor of shape`[batch_size, output_shape, output_shape]`. The relationship between input and output is defined by the following. ```python input_shape = sum([i for i in range(output_shape + 1)]) ``` The layers have no learnable parameters, and merely serve to transform a vector space to a SPD matrix space.

Jekel, CharlesF.↗

XScope

XScope finds inputs that trigger floating-point exceptions, such as NaN (not a number) and infinity, in CUDA functions using Bayesian optimization (BO). XScope assumes that the CUDA functions are a black box, i.e., the source code is not available. It searches the input space using several methods to guide BO into extreme cases. When an input is found to trigger an exception in the target CUDA function, the input is shown to the user.

Laguna Peralta, Ignacio↗

MLClouds [SWR-24-24]

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is NREL’s flagship solar data resource. With over 20 years of high-resolution surface irradiance data covering most of the western hemisphere, the NSRDB is a crucial public data asset. A fundamental input to accurate surface irradiance in the NSRDB is high quality cloud property data. Cloud properties are used in radiative transfer calculations and are sourced from satellite imagery. Improving the accuracy of cloud property inputs is a tractable method for improving the accuracy of the irradiance data in the NSRDB. For example, in July of 2018, an average location in the Continental United States is missing cloud property data for nearly one quarter of all daylight cloudy timesteps. This project aims to improve the cloud data inputs to the NSRDB by using machine learning techniques to exploit the NSRDB’s massive data resources. More accurate cloud property input data will yield more accurate surface irradiance data in the NSRDB, providing direct benefit to researchers at NREL and to public data users everywhere.

Buster, Grant↗

EnergyPlus View Factor Calculation

The Python code takes EnergyPlus input files and creates input for the View3D program, executes the View3D program, then inserts the respective view factors into the EnergyPlus input file, thus streamlining the process of view factor calculation and modification of the EnergyPlus input file.

Kunwar, Niraj [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

Effective sensor location for detection of change in structural dynamic response

This paper investigates the sensitivity of structural system response to the sensor location by investigating consequences of small changes in the location to the structural system response. The paper discusses how maximum observability (based on mode shape and the participation of that mode in the input provided) drives optimal location. The structural responses were investigated in terms of the g-rms response for various low-frequency inputs (pure sinusoids and real-life inputs such as an earthquake and trains). Results were then analyzed in the context of Modal Contributions Factors (MCF) and changes to the Force-to-response Transfer Functions (TRFs). A modal-matching process is first presented using a Matlab TM -based Finite Element Method (FEM) model of a cantilever beam and instrumentation to determine the location of a small mass based on three different criteria. Subsequently, the structural response is investigated using experiments and the FEM model. The accelerometer of small mass (at 1/3 height) was moved up or down to obtain changes in the structural response (TRF) to various realistic low-frequency inputs. Modal Contribution Factor (MCF) and derivative (slope) of the associated mode-shapes were correlated to the observed changes in TRFs. Results show how optimal sensor locations for detecting change in structural response can be based on the MCFs and the associated mode-shapes.

Woodall, J.↗

Dynamic responses of submerged components in advanced reactors: experimental and numerical studies

The seismic design of an advanced nuclear reactor must consider the interaction of vessel internal components with the surrounding coolant: fluid–structure interaction (FSI). Available analytical solutions for FSI of submerged components do not accommodate multiple-component, intense seismic inputs and complex reactor and internal geometries. Physical testing of reactor vessels and internals to inform seismic design is impractical and cost-prohibitive, leaving the use of verified and validated, robust numerical models as the only plausible option for analysis and design. Physical data that could be used for validating such numerical models for multi-component shaking are not available. This article describes an experimental program performed on a 6-degree-of-freedom earthquake simulator to generate data that could support validation of seismic FSI numerical models for submerged components in commercial finite element codes. A scaled model of a base-supported reactor vessel with simplified representations of submerged internals was tested to generate submerged-component response histories for a range of seismic inputs. The generated data were used to validate numerical models in the finite element code LS-DYNA. Numerical models were validated for calculation of hydrodynamic pressure responses on internals, in-water frequencies of internals, and acceleration responses of internals. The generated data and the analysis recommendations could aid engineering analysts designing submerged components and systems for seismic effects.

Engineering↗

Learning curves for drug response prediction in cancer cell lines

Motivated by the size and availability of cell line drug sensitivity data, researchers have been developing machine learning (ML) models for predicting drug response to advance cancer treatment. As drug sensitivity studies continue generating drug response data, a common question is whether the generalization performance of existing prediction models can be further improved with more training data. We utilize empirical learning curves for evaluating and comparing the data scaling properties of two neural networks (NNs) and two gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) models trained on four cell line drug screening datasets. The learning curves are accurately fitted to a power law model, providing a framework for assessing the data scaling behavior of these models. The curves demonstrate that no single model dominates in terms of prediction performance across all datasets and training sizes, thus suggesting that the actual shape of these curves depends on the unique pair of an ML model and a dataset. The multi-input NN (mNN), in which gene expressions of cancer cells and molecular drug descriptors are input into separate subnetworks, outperforms a single-input NN (sNN), where the cell and drug features are concatenated for the input layer. In contrast, a GBDT with hyperparameter tuning exhibits superior performance as compared with both NNs at the lower range of training set sizes for two of the tested datasets, whereas the mNN consistently performs better at the higher range of training sizes. Moreover, the trajectory of the curves suggests that increasing the sample size is expected to further improve prediction scores of both NNs. These observations demonstrate the benefit of using learning curves to evaluate prediction models, providing a broader perspective on the overall data scaling characteristics. A fitted power law learning curve provides a forward-looking metric for analyzing prediction performance and can serve as a co-design tool to guide experimental biologists and computational scientists in the design of future experiments in prospective research studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Data for KETCHUP: Parameterizing of Large-Scale Kinetic Models Using Multiple Datasets with Different Reference States

Repository for Kinetic Estimation Tool Capturing Heterogeneous Datasets Using Pyomo (KETCHUP), a flexible parameter estimation tool that leverages a primal-dual interior-point algorithm to solve a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem that identifies a set of parameters capable of recapitulating the steady-state fluxes and concentrations in wild-type and perturbed metabolic networks. KETCHUP can use K-FIT [2] input files. Example K-FIT input files are located in the K-FIT repository at https://github.com/maranasgroup/K-FIT.

Metabolomics↗

Description and Use of SCALE Sampler Parametric Capability for Engineering Analysis and Optimization

The Sampler sequence was introduced into the SCALE nuclear modeling and simulation suite in SCALE 6.2 to perform uncertainty quantification via random sampling of nuclear data, material number densities, and dimensions. Sampler was expanded with the introduction of a parametric capability in SCALE 6.2.2. This paper discusses input for the Sampler parametric sequence and presents two case studies of analyses performed using the sequence. These case studies include preconceptual design of a package for transporting high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) oxide and scoping calculations to support subcritical limit development for a future update of the ANSI/ANS-8.1 (ANS-8.1) standard. The parametric capability within Sampler provides many benefits to analysts. For instance, parametric sweeps are frequently used to identify optimum parameter values as part of safety analysis or system design, but such sweeps can require substantial engineering time or may rely on custom-written scripts or scripts such as Write One, Run Many (or WORM) developed outside of any software quality assurance program. With the parametric capabilities in Sampler, however, a large number of inputs can be generated automatically without recourse to scripting by individual analysts. The parametric capability can also be used in lieu of the CSAS5S search sequence to identify optimum parameters more simply with straightforward inputs and outputs. Sampler can also be used to calculate input parameters from engineering specifications. For example, diameters can be converted to radii, or masses can be used to calculate number densities. Overall, the Sampler parametric capability provides a robust feature within SCALE, eliminating the need for user-developed scripting.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Brady Geodatabase for Geothermal Exploration Artificial Intelligence

These files contain the geodatabases related to Brady's Geothermal Field. It includes all input and output files for the Geothermal Exploration Artificial Intelligence. Input and output files are sorted into three categories: raw data, pre-processed data, and analysis (post-processed data). In each of these categories there are six additional types of raster catalogs which are titled Radar, SWIR, Thermal, Geophysics, Geology, and Wells. These inputs and outputs were used with the Geothermal Exploration Artificial Intelligence to identify indicators of blind geothermal systems at the Brady Hot Springs Geothermal Site. The included zip file is a geodatabase to be used with ArcGIS and the tar file is an inclusive database that encompasses the inputs and outputs for the Brady Hot Springs Geothermal Site.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

HERO WEC V1.0 - WEC-Sim Detailed Simulation Runs and Summary Data

Data sets from simulation runs include 144 wave cases that were run based on the WEC-Sim model (https://mhkdr.openei.org/submissions/483). The 144 wave cases represent waves with the following wave height and wave period ranges: - Significant Wave Height: 0.25 - 4.0m in 0.25m increments - Wave Period: 5 - 13 sec in 1 sec increments Each run was simulated using a Pierson-Moskowitz irregular wave spectrum with a 200 second ramp time and a total simulation time of 2,200 seconds. Summary data set includes a spreadsheet and image files with matrices that are associated with data from simulation runs. All matrices cover the same significant wave height and wave periods from the sim runs, in the same increments. The following matrices are included: - Mechanical Power Input: Absorbed power calculated using linear input velocity at PTO (power take-off) multiplied by winch tension. - Mechanical Power Output: The hydraulic power calculated at the pump output prior to the pressure relief valve dump. - Feed Pressure: Average pressure at RO (reverse osmosis) input prior to pre-filters - RO Power Input: The hydraulic power calculated at the RO system inlet, accounts for flow loss due to pressure relief valve - Water Production: Average clean water flow at RO output

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗