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DOE OSTI2020

Spatio-temporal impacts of a utility’s efficiency portfolio on the distribution grid

Energy Efficiency has historically focused on delivering savings to offset growth in energy supply. Today’s growing emphasis on decarbonization of the energy supply is driving renewables adoption and increased interest in electrification. As a result, energy efficiency is being assessed not just in its ability to offset load growth, but also for its ability to alleviate location-specific constraints on transmission and distribution infrastructure. This work demonstrates that advanced measurement and verification modeling techniques can be used to estimate the spatio-temporal grid impact of a portfolio of energy efficiency programs. It extends measurement-based methods to an entire Demand Side Management portfolio and uses a single model to predict annual as well as seasonal building energy use with near-zero bias. In addition, new metrics are introduced to assess grid level impacts of energy efficiency. The results show that the efficiency program portfolio delivers savings of over 12% at the territory-wide proxy level, with substation and feeder level savings ranging from 0.4% to 26%, and ~5%-42% respectively. Overall, these savings impacted 1.0%–1.4% of the energy used at these locations in the grid. This work provides a methodology with potential to connect efficiency with distribution planning, carrying implications for non-wires alternatives and targeted delivery of efficiency programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Maximizing oil production from water alternating gas (CO 2 ) injection into residual oil zones: The impact of oil saturation and heterogeneity

Residual oil zones (ROZs) are widespread reservoirs, characterized by oil at residual saturation, either underlying oil fields (brownfield) or lateral (greenfield) to such fields. These reservoirs have the potential to produce volumes of oil sufficiently significant to make appreciable impacts on the US’s oil reserves and associated incidental CO 2 sequestration. The objective of this study is to improve our understanding the impact of heterogeneous and low oil saturations, in brownfield ROZs, on the effectiveness of water alternating gas (WAG) injection strategies. ROZs occur in the Permian Basin and elsewhere, and operators are using CO 2 injection for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in these zones. The consensus model for the formation of ROZs is that they were formed by the effect of faster regional aquifer flow, acting over millions of years. Both the magnitude of oil saturation and the spatial distribution of oil differ from water-flooded main pay zones (MPZs). To explore the most effective injection strategies, we conducted simulations of CO 2 injection into synthetic geologic reservoirs. These simulations focused on injection into reservoirs subject to either man-made waterflooding or long-term natural waterflooding. By exploring the impact of varying: oil saturation; well patterns; reservoir heterogeneity; and permeability anisotropy, we attempt to quantify the factors that most influence the effectiveness of WAG injection. WAG ratios (the ratio of injected water and CO 2 , in reservoir volumes) of interest are those that either minimize the net CO 2 utilization ratios or maximize oil production rates. In general, the most effective WAG ratios for ROZs, are consistently less than those observed undergoing CO 2 injection in the same geologic reservoir models after traditional (man-made) waterflooding. This work demonstrates that most favorable WAG ratios for oil production in ROZs are different from those in traditional MPZs because of oil saturation differences. Therefore, CO 2 injection into both zones or directly copying WAG injection designs from MPZs to ROZs might not maximize oil production.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of divalent cations (Mg 2+ and Ca 2+ ) on PFAS bioaccumulation in freshwater macroinvertebrates representing different foraging modes

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have extensively contaminated freshwater aquatic ecosystems where they can be transported in water and partition to sediment and biota. In this paper, three freshwater benthic macroinvertebrates with different foraging modes were exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of eight perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCA), three perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSA), and three fluorotelomer sulfonates (FTS) at varying divalent cation concentrations of magnesium (Mg 2+ ) and calcium (Ca 2+ ). Divalent cations can impact PFAS partitioning to solids, especially to sediments, at higher concentrations. Sediment dwelling worms (Lumbriculus variegatus), epibenthic grazing snails (Physella acuta), and sediment-dwelling filter-feeding bivalves (Elliptio complanata) were selected due to their unique foraging modes. Microcosms were composed of synthetic sediment, culture water, macroinvertebrates, and PFAS and consisted of a 28-day exposure period. L. variegatus had significantly higher PFAS bioaccumulation than P. acuta and E. complanata, likely due to higher levels of interactions with and ingestion of the contaminated sediment. “High Mg 2+ ” (7.5 mM Mg 2+ ) and “High Ca 2+ ” (7.5 mM Ca 2+ ) conditions generally had statistically higher bioaccumulation factors (BAF) than the “Reference Condition” (0.2 mM Ca 2+ and 0.2 mM Mg 2+ ) for PFAS with perfluorinated chain lengths greater than eight carbons. Long-chain PFAS dominated the PFAS profiles of the macroinvertebrates for all groups of compounds studied (PFCA, PFSA, and FTS). Furthermore, these results indicate that the study organism has the greatest impact on bioaccumulation, although divalent cation concentration had observable impacts between organisms depending on the environmental conditions. Elevated cation concentrations in the microcosms led to significantly greater bioaccumulation in the test organisms compared to the experimental reference conditions for long-chain PFAS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards assessing the impact of anthropogenic sound on fishes: Gaps, perspectives, and a case study of a large floating bridge

Underwater anthropogenic sound can cause physical, physiological, and behavioral impacts on fishes. With the development of marine energy facilities, the impact of man-made underwater sound on fishes has become a growing regulatory concern. Large gaps remain in how to perform an underwater sound assessment. Such gaps mainly reside in scientific evidence, regulatory criteria, sound characterization metrics, sound field modeling, and instrumentation for field measurement. Here, this paper reviewed existing work on underwater sound assessment for fishes to identify critical gaps and provide perspectives on how to deal with these gaps, demonstrated with a case study on the impact of the Hood Canal Bridge traffic sound on migrating steelhead smolts in Washington State, U.S. We also provide perspectives on future research directions to bridge the identified gaps for aquatic ecological assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of battery cell imbalance on electric vehicle range

Due to manufacturing variation, battery cells often possess heterogeneous characteristics, leading to battery state-of-charge variation in real-time. Since the lowest cell state-of-charge determines the useful life of battery pack, such variation can negatively impact the battery performance and electric vehicles range. Existing research has been focused on control design to mitigate cell imbalance. However, it is yet unclear how much impacts the cell imbalance can have on electric vehicle range. This paper closes this knowledge gap by using a simulation environment consisting of real-world driving speed data, vehicle longitudinal control, propulsion and vehicle dynamics, and cell level battery modeling. In particular, each battery cell is modeled as an equivalent circuit model, and variations among cell parameters are introduced to assess their impact on electric vehicles range and to identify the most influential parameter variations. Simulation results and analysis can be used to assist balancing control design and to benchmark control performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Numerical assessment of fault impact on caprock seals during CO 2 sequestration

Coupled fluid-flow and geomechanical analysis of caprock integrity has gained a lot of attention among scientists and researchers investigating the long-term performance of geologic carbon storage systems. Reactivation of pre-existing fractures within the caprock or re-opening of faults can create permeable pathways which can influence the seal integrity. Stability of the caprock during and after injection of super-critical CO 2 , and the impact of pre-existing fractures in the presence or absence of one or multiple faults have been investigated in this study. The impact of the wellbore orientation and the injection rate are among other key factors in understanding the structural trapping mechanisms within such geological formations. In this study, we numerically investigated the impact of each of these factors. This study revealed the interplay between joints and faults and how different leakage pathways are formed and under which scenario they play a dominant role in terms of CO 2 leakage. Finally, this study also highlights the role of one versus multiple faults in the domain and the importance of the fault hydrological property in forming leakage pathway.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experimental verification of a crystal plasticity-based simulation framework for predicting microstructure and geometric shape changes: Application to bending and Taylor impact testing of Zr

This paper is concerned with experimental verification of a recently developed multi-scale simulation framework for plastic deformation of metallic materials from quasi-static to impact deformation conditions. The framework is a visco-plastic self-consistent (VPSC) polycrystalline model embedded in an implicit finite element method (FE-VPSC) to provide a microstructure-sensitive constitutive response at each material point. Each material point of the FEM model is a polycrystalline aggregate with crystallographic deformation mechanisms operating at the single crystal scale with their evolving activity based on a dislocation density-based hardening law and texture. Four beams and three cylinders machined in different orientations from a textured plate of high-purity zirconium are tested quasi-statically in 4-point bending and at speeds of 100 m/s, 170 m/s and 243 m/s during Taylor impact tests, respectively. The variation in dimensional changes resulting from different sample orientations in the plate with respect to loading directions is measured for each sample. Moreover, texture and twinning characterization is performed using electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD). The deformation processes and underlying evolution of microstructure are successfully simulated using the FE-VPSC framework. In doing so, the model parameters are optimized and validated across a broad range of strain rates and temperatures. Simulation results in terms of geometrical changes and microstructural evolution are compared with the experimental measurements. The model predicts anisotropic material flow resulting from the hard-to-deform crystallographic directions, the development of gradients in texture and twinning through the geometries, tension–compression asymmetry, as well as the extent of plasticity under impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of oxygen on the tensile properties and fracture behavior of the Ta-10 W refractory alloy at quasi-static and impact strain rates

This study investigates effects of pre-charged oxygen at levels up to ∼1750 ppm on the tensile properties of the refractory alloy Ta-10 W. Tests were conducted at temperatures to 1100 °C and strain rates from quasi-static (∼10−3 s−1) to impact (∼103 s−1). At all temperatures, ductility decreased with increasing oxygen concentration and could be visually identified as a ductile-to-brittle transition (DBT). Additionally, for a given oxygen concentration, ductility was lower at impact strain rate than at quasi-static. The DBT was accompanied by a change from ductile transgranular to more brittle modes, intergranular and transgranular cleavage. The oxygen concentrations associated with the DBT depend on test temperature and strain rate. However, the transitions themselves are not sharp and cannot be defined as occurring at a specific oxygen concentration. At impact strain rates, ductility is relatively insensitive to test temperatures in the range 300–1100 °C with similar embrittling effects of oxygen; however, oxygen has a more severe embrittling effect at room temperature. This behavior is reversed at quasi-static strain rates where the embrittling effect of oxygen is more severe at elevated temperatures than at room temperature. It appears this difference is related to the kinetics of oxygen diffusion to grain boundaries and crack tips. Specimens that were not pre-charged with oxygen but tensile tested in various partial pressures of oxygen underwent dynamic embrittlement during the test, with the degree of embrittlement increasing as the partial pressure of oxygen in the environment increased. Consistent with such a mechanism, ductility increased with increasing strain rate for a given oxygen partial pressure, which would be the reverse if only intrinsic dislocation mobilities were controlling.

Miller, Roger [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000172155851)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Connecting ambient toxicity testing with community-level responses of benthic macroinvertebrates in an impacted stream in East Tennessee, USA

Single-species laboratory toxicity tests are a standard tool for evaluating potential impairment of freshwater systems; however, it remains uncertain how well they reflect community-level impacts in natural environments. This study presents a multi-decadal dataset (2005-2025) pairing ambient toxicity testing with macroinvertebrate surveys along Bear Creek on the Oak Ridge Reservation (Tennessee, USA) downstream of an industrial complex to assess the ability of laboratory tests using stream water to track community-level effects. Biannual three-brood Ceriodaphnia dubia tests from 2005 to 2025 often showed reduced reproduction at select sites. Integrating water quality data showed strong positive correlations between sublethal toxicity and specific conductance. Macroinvertebrate diversity metrics, family-level occurrence, and densities were also associated with conductance and contemporaneous C. dubia responses. Laboratory-measured sublethal toxicity was a stronger indicator of macroinvertebrate change than conductance alone, although responses varied among sites and seasons. At the site with the highest diversity, densities and richness of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) and non-EPT taxa were significantly related to C. dubia reproduction, with greater toxicity corresponding to lower diversity. At the family level, some pollution-tolerant taxa were more prevalent and at higher densities during periods of sublethal toxicity, while some sensitive families were absent or reduced. These patterns may reflect site-specific mixtures of acute and chronic stressors, with laboratory toxicity tests more effectively capturing short-term impacts. Overall, these multi-decadal observations suggest that laboratory toxicity tests can help track water-quality changes linked to shifts in aquatic community diversity, despite variable responses reflecting the complexity of dynamic stressors in this impacted freshwater system.

Stevenson, Louise [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000349679897)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the impact of finite matrix block size on conservative particle transport through three-dimensional fracture networks

Mass transfer of solutes between fractures and the surrounding rock matrix exerts a noticeable signature on the tail of travel time distributions. When the width of the matrix is assumed to be infinite and advective transport through the fracture is sufficiently fast, the tails of the travel time distributions exhibit a classically expected slope of ψ(t) ∝ t -3/2 . However, studies have yet to characterize how solute transfer between fractures via diffusion through finite matrix blocks influences the tail’s slope in three-dimensional fractured media. Here, in this study, we assess the impact of finite matrix block size on breakthrough curve shape at different spatio-temporal scales by con ducting particle tracking simulations in three-dimensional discrete fracture networks. We consider a variety of hydrodynamic and geostructural proper ties to determine their relative impact on the resulting travel time distributions. We observe that the impact of matrix diffusion through a finite block on travel time distributions is similar to that of an infinite matrix block when the fracture spacing is sufficiently large, matrix diffusion is relatively weak, or transport is considered at an early control plane distance. We observe that the converse of these conditions, results in deviations from the classical ψ(t) ∝ t -3/2 scaling. These results provide a first step toward developing a metric to assess when finite block size effects are expected to significantly influence transport.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of fission product inclusion on phase development in U 3 Si 2 fuel

Due to its high thermal conductivity and uranium density, U 3 S i2 has been considered as a candidate for use as an accident tolerant fuel (ATF). In order to fully assess its suitability and performance as a fuel, the impact of fission products (FPs) on the stability and performance of U 3 Si 2 must be investigated. The interactions of FPs and U 3 Si 2 have had relatively little study until now and require experimental and computational examination. U 3 Si 2 was doped with individual FPs to explore U-Si-FP interactions and phase equilibria that may impact the performance of the ATF during irradiation. Elemental Ce, Mo, Y, or Zr were used to individually dope U 3 Si 2 at a concentration of 5 wt% FP. A diffusion couple of a 1:1 Mo:Zr alloy and U 3 Si 2 was heated to 1200 °C in order to consider the impacts of multiple FPs on the stability and structure of the fuel. Samples were characterized for FP solubility and secondary phase formation using electron microscopy, energy dispersive spectroscopy, and x-ray diffraction. First principles density functional theory calculations complemented the experimental effort to understand FP behavior. Experimental and computational findings were used in the development of a thermodynamic database containing 8 major FPs and their associated silicide phases. Finally, fuel compositions generated from depletion calculations were used to thermodynamically model the equilibrium phases of the fuel undergoing burnup.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of grain boundary and surface diffusion on predicted fission gas bubble behavior and release in UO 2 fuel

In this work, we quantify the impact of grain boundary (GB) and surface diffusion on fission gas bubble evolution and fission gas release in UO 2 nuclear fuel using simulations with a hybrid phase field/cluster dynamics model. Here, we begin with a comprehensive literature review of uranium vacancy and xenon atom diffusivity in UO 2 through the bulk, along GBs, and along surfaces. In our model we represent fast GB and surface diffusion using a heterogeneous diffusivity that is a function of the order parameters that represent bubbles and grains. We find that the GB diffusivity directly impacts the rate of gas release via GB transport, and that the GB diffusivity is likely below 104 times the lower value from Olander and van Uffelen. We also find that the surface diffusivity impacts bubble coalescence and mobility, and that the bubble surface diffusivity is likely below 10 -4 times the value from Zhou and Olander.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Anisotropic neutron response of trans-stilbene and impact on a handheld dual particle imager

Here this manuscript details measurements of the anisotropic light-output response of trans-stilbene, henceforth referred to as stilbene, along the three primary crystal planes and analyzes how this anisotropic response impacts neutron image reconstruction in a handheld dual particle imager (H2DPI). A prototype H2DPI composed of stilbene pillars (6 x 6 x 50 mm 3 ) coupled to silicon photomultipliers was built and is capable of imaging both fast neutrons and gamma rays from kilogram quantities of special nuclear material. Stilbene was chosen as the scintillating medium for the imager because of its pulse shape discrimination capability, time resolution and relatively high light output. A drawback to using stilbene, however, is the anisotropic response. A recoiling proton from a neutron elastic-scattering event in stilbene will yield different amounts of scintillation light depending on the direction of the recoiling proton with respect to the crystal lattice. This manuscript analyzes how this anisotropic response impacts neutron image reconstruction in 4π. The light output in the three primary crystal planes of stilbene were independently measured 6–7 times for proton recoil energies ranging from 0.5–5.0 MeV using a quasi-monoenergetic time-of-flight neutron source. The measured light-output data in the three crystal planes were fit with a semi-empirical function based on Birks’ formula. These fits were used to reconstruct the location of a 252 Cf source in front of the imager (0°, -0.8°), to the left of the imager (-90°, -0.8°) and directly above the imager (0°, 90°) to determine if it is necessary to apply the directionally-dependent response of stilbene to accurately reconstruct source locations. A bootstrapping technique was applied to the measured data sets to produce 1000 images composed of 2000 cone projections for each source location and each measured light-output curve. List-mode maximum likelihood expectation maximization was applied to each image; the highest pixel location and the full width at half maximum (FWHM) were then recorded. The average and standard deviations of these parameters were taken for each set of images. The maximum difference in the average azimuthal pixel location when varying between the appropriate and incorrect light-output curves for the source locations at (0°, -0.8°) and (-90°, -0.8°) were respectively found to be 1.85 ± 1.39° and 2.03 ± 1.78°. All other pixel locations and FWHMs were within a single standard deviation of uncertainty. Taken together, the anisotropic response of stilbene has negligible impact on the neutron image reconstruction capability of the H2DPI.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation and modeling uncertainty impact evaluation in neutronics core simulation

Uncertainty analysis is a critical requirement in reactor simulation as it is used to quantify the reliability of best-estimate calculation. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis should characterize all sources of uncertainties in a computationally-feasible and scientifically-defendable manner. Here we employ a well-established reduced order modeling (ROM) based uncertainty quantification methodology to propagate uncertainties throughout neutronic calculations. ROM relies on recent advances in randomized data mining techniques applied to large data streams. In our proposed implementation, the nuclear data uncertainties are first propagated from multi-group level through lattice physics calculation to generate few-group parameter uncertainties, described using a vector of mean values and a covariance matrix. Employing an ROM-based compression of the covariance matrix, the few-group uncertainties are then propagated through downstream core simulation in a computationally efficient manner. This straightforward approach, albeit efficient as compared to brute force forward and/or adjoint-based methods, often employs a number of assumptions that have been unquestioned in the literature of neutronic uncertainty analysis. This manuscript argues that these assumptions could introduce another source of uncertainty referred to as modeling uncertainties, whose magnitude needs to be quantified in tandem with nuclear data uncertainties. Thus, our primary goal is to explore the interactions between these two uncertainty sources in order to assess whether modeling uncertainties have an impact on parameter uncertainties. To explore this endeavor, the impact of a number of modeling assumptions on core attributes uncertainties is quantified. The study employs a CANDU reactor model, with Serpent and NEWT as lattice physics solvers and NESTLE-C as core simulator. The modeling assumptions investigated include those related with the uncertainty propagation method employed, e.g., deterministic vs. stochastic, the few-group energy structure employed to represent the cross-sections, the resonance treatment in lattice physics calculation, the reference values for the cross-section, and the number of samples employed to render ROM compression. Results indicate that some of the modeling assumptions could have a non-negligible impact on the core responses propagated uncertainties, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive approach to combine parameter and modeling uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Langmuir adsorption model to assess the impact of silane coupling on nano-dispersion of silica in SBR

Surface active agents are often used to improve dispersion of nanoparticles. Quantitative correlation between these surface-active molecules and nanoscale dispersion is absent from the literature partly because a quantitative measure of nanoscale dispersion does not exist. Recently, we have developed the Virial-van der Waals method to quantify dispersion in nanocomposites using virial coefficients. In this paper, the Langmuir adsorption model is used to quantify the influence of surface-active agents on nano-scale dispersion in terms of the effective second virial coefficient B 2 *. The impact of silane coupling agent on the nano-dispersion and silica aggregate structure in precipitated silica/SBR nanocomposites is demonstrated. It is shown that the higher viscosity SBR matrix led to a greater silica aggregate structural breakup, while lower viscosity matrix improved surface silanization. The isomeric content of the SBR, which impacts the dielectric behavior, impacted whether the system could be modeled through a mean-field or specific interactions. We earlier showed that larger aggregates improve dispersion, and this is reaffirmed in these results. After account is made for aggregate size, nano-scale dispersion improves with the addition of silane coupling agent. The behavior is well modeled using Langmuir monolayer adsorption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reducing waste of the hydride-dehydride process for U-6 wt% Nb spherical powders through lower impact and targeted milling

The breakdown of solid metal into powder during the hydride-dehydride process is commercially important for the formation of titanium and other metal powders. Typically, the milling of the brittle hydride powder occurs in a ball mill, where milling media impacts powder particles to break them down. The milling media can impact particles that are larger than desired, as desired, or smaller than desired, indiscriminately making all particles smaller. In this work, we investigate how to minimize waste powder production during milling using two different milling methods, planetary ball milling and milling in a sieve shaker (sieve-milling). Both processes yielded similar amounts of 20–75 μm diameter powder (the target size range); however, sieve-milling generated a significantly smaller amount of undersized waste powder. The powders were characterized by X-ray diffraction, SEM/STEM, and magnetic susceptibility. Several differences between ball milling and sieve-milling processes are discussed. We then conclude that the decreased yield of undersized powder in sieve-milling was due to a combination of lower impact energy in sieve-milling, unreacted metallic cores in the hydride flakes, and the ability to mill target particle sizes during sieve-milling. While these results are from the milling of brittle hydride powder, similar methods may be applicable to other brittle powders, including ceramics or salts.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of the radiological impact during selected space travel scenarios using the Monte Carlo code FLUKA

Radiation is one of the major challenges of space exploration and can negatively impact both biological and electronic systems, particularly in the case of long-term journeys or if the spaceship features inadequate shielding. Here, in this work, the cumulative dose levels from prompt radiation in the spacecraft are quantified alongside the residual dose contributions arising from activation of vessel components. The radiological impact was assessed for various space exploration scenarios, considering the same spaceship model featuring three shielding design variants. In each scenario, the radiation environment was generated with the Monte Carlo particle transport and interaction code FLUKA. These results can be used to quantify the contribution of prompt and residual dose in spacefaring ventures and help determine optimal radiation shielding needed to mitigate the overall radiological impact on both astronauts and equipment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Divergent urbanization-induced impacts on global surface urban heat island trends since 1980s

Urbanization experiences different speeds and forms under diverse development stages across the globe. However, urbanization-induced impacts on long-term surface urban heat island intensity (I s ) trends across global cities and the regulators of such impacts remain understudied. Here we estimate interannual trends in daytime I s (i.e., urban-rural differences in surface temperatures) across 511 major cities for 1985 –2020 using annual averages calculated by using reconstructed land surface temperature data derived from more than >250,000 Landsat thermal images. Our study reveals that the global mean I s growth rate is 0.156 °C/decade. We further examine I s change associated with per 1% impervious land growth (denoted as ß) in each city throughout the research period and during different periods. The global mean ß is 0.018 ± 0.025 °C/% (mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the whole period, with greater values in humid than in arid climates; and the ß may change during different periods, e.g., it has more than tripled when urban impervious land exceeds 30%, indicating the spatiotemporally divergent impacts of urbanization on Is trends across global cities. The spatial variations in ß across global cities are well correlated with rural vegetation abundance and precipitation but not with urban population. Among these three factors, rural vegetation abundance possesses the greatest standardized regression coefficient of partial least-squares model, signifying the critical role of biome background in regulating ß. Furthermore, the finding implies that future urbanization over densely vegetated regions should be more carefully and strategically planned due to the greater urbanization-induced surface warming effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗