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At least 523 records · Page 29

Impacts of Resolution on Heavy‐Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts

The present study investigates the impact of horizontal resolutions on heavy‐precipitating storms using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version2 (E3SMv2) at low (∼100 km, LR) and high (∼25 km, HR) resolutions through short‐range hindcasts. The short‐range hindcast approach ensures a faithful comparison of model resolution in simulating the same storm events under a controlled large‐scale environment. Using a phenomenon‐based framework, we attribute precipitation to specific storm types: tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our findings show that E3SM hindcasts with both HR and LR configurations significantly underestimate storm‐associated precipitation intensity but overestimate precipitation from other sources. Furthermore, both HR and LR hindcasts face significant challenges in accurately simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over MCS hotspots. Nevertheless, HR simulations capture more detailed and intense precipitation patterns with an improved representation of storm dynamics. HR hindcasts produce 16% more storm precipitation compared to LR. For precipitation extremes, HR simulates a 33% higher 99th percentile precipitation magnitudes compared to LR, and most of the increment comes from these four heavy‐precipitating storm types. The increase in precipitation mainly comes from stratiform precipitation rather than convective precipitation. The improvement in HR simulations varies across different storm types with TC showing the largest improvement. The phenomenon‐based approach provides important insights into precipitation simulations especially for extremes. Our results emphasize the need for further refinement in high‐resolution models to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions, which is crucial for better understanding and mitigating climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of impurities on peeling–ballooning modes and turbulence in tokamak plasmas

This study investigates the impact of various impurity species on peeling–ballooning (PB) modes and microturbulence in tokamak plasmas through the extension of traditional two-fluid and gyro-landau-fluid (GLF) models. By incorporating finite Larmor radius (FLR) effects, the analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of impurity-driven impact and its interaction with plasma turbulence. Depending on charge state and local plasma conditions, heavy impurities may exhibit gyro-radii larger than those of main ions, which are captured in the extended GLF model presented. Following the presentation of modified two-fluid equations incorporating impurity effects, we systematically analyze the distinctions between impurity and main ion dynamics and their resultant feedback mechanisms on plasma behavior. Derivation of the linear dispersion relation enables quantification of impurity-mediated modifications to: plasma vorticity, diamagnetic drift and gyroviscous effects, electron Hall physics, and FLR effects. BOUT++ – based linear simulations corroborate this formalism, demonstrating systematic stabilization of PB modes upon impurity seeding. And then operational implications for practical impurity control strategies in tokamak devices are proposed. The results underscore the necessity of impurity management to maintain stability and optimize plasma confinement, with specific focus on how FLR effects contribute to transport dynamics. This work paves the way for enhanced modeling and simulation efforts, supporting the development of strategies to control impurity-induced turbulence and improve overall reactor performance.

BOUT++ simulation↗

Towards an understanding of particle-scale flaws and microstructure evolution in cold spray via accumulation of single particle impacts

Cold spray coatings are the sum of countless individual bonding events between single particles impacting on top of one another at high velocities. Thus, the collective behavior of microparticles must be considered to elucidate the origins of coating flaws at the scale of the particles and larger, or the dynamic evolution of the overall coating microstructure. Laser-induced particle impact testing (LIPIT) has been extensively used to study single-particle impacts, and in this work is adapted to study the accumulation of numerous particles with knowledge of each individual particle's impact parameters (particle size, velocity). The method reproducibly deposits stacks of gold particles (>20 particles) with different characteristic spectra of impact velocity. The observation of impact-induced erosion lets us define a critical velocity for material-build-up that is higher than that for single-particle bonding. The quantitative single-particle data are analyzed in a correlative manner to the structure and flaws in the resulting stacks, providing some first statistical connections between, e.g., strain and recrystallization, or aberrant particle characteristics and defects. The results highlight opportunities for the study of many-particle phenomena in microparticle impact—from interaction of particles in cold spray to multi-step erosion processes—with a quantitative view of the behavior of single particles.

Erosion↗

Seasonal Cost-Benefit Analysis of Automated Distribution Feeder Upgrades with Advanced Mitigation Technologies

The increasing deployment of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) to meet clean energy goals can trigger adverse grid operation issues, such as voltage excursions and the violation of thermal loading constraints of the power delivery elements (e.g., lines and transformers) on the evolving electricity infrastructure. Such integration issues would require distribution upgrades with associated costs to mitigate them and to maintain reliable and resilient grid operating conditions. Traditional distribution network upgrade approaches use a specific single snapshot analysis that is overly conservative. This study considers a multi-time point analysis to capture both moderate (probable bounds) and extreme grid operating conditions using time points such as minimum load with minimum photovoltaics (PV), maximum load with maximum PV, maximum load with minimum PV, and minimum load with maximum PV. Further, this study investigates seasonal variation impacts and associated distribution upgrade costs for a spring season case (March, representing a low load and high PV scenario) and a summer case (July, representing a high load and high PV scenario). Such seasonal analysis will allow system operators to characterize upgrade requirements and associated costs across various periods. Because the spatial distribution of DPV can impact upgrade and associated costs, this study investigates three common DPV deployment scenarios - randomly deployed, close to the substation, and far from the substation - at different penetration levels. Apart from spatial distribution impacts, this project evaluates the techno-economic impacts of the nodal photovoltaic penetration factor (NPPF) for generating the various DPV deployment scenarios at increasing penetration levels. This project investigates the impact of varying nodal PV-to-load ratios using conservative and extreme NPPF values of 3 and 10, respectively. This study investigates the deployment of traditional infrastructure upgrade strategies, such as installing new voltage regulating equipment, transformers and lines replacements, and the activation of advanced inverter functionality (e.g., autonomous volt/VAR) in expanding PV hosting capacity. Existing DPV systems are assumed to operate with the legacy unity power factor, and we considered the possibility of retrofitting such systems with the activation of volt/VAR control as integration standards and regulations continue to evolve to allow such functions. The cost-benefit analysis metrics used in study include distribution upgrade costs, average cost per watt of the upgrade cost, average marginal cost per watt of the upgrade cost, and power losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessment of metadynamic recrystallization in single copper particle impacts by focused ion beam tomography

We study single Cu-on-Cu impacts relevant to cold spray deposition and quantitatively analyze the metadynamic recrystallization (mDRX) that takes place after the impact by virtue of lingering impact adiabatic heat. Unlike prior studies, the current full 3D tomographic analysis of the mDRX volume shows that mDRX is extremely common in such impacts, although it is often missed when examining 2D sections. We also report an unexpected trend: there is a “sour spot” for mDRX at velocities about 20–40 % above the velocity for particle adhesion. This non-monotonic trend is contrary to the expectations based on increasing adiabatic heating with velocity. With a schematic model, we show that the trend can be explained on the basis of heat transfer: cooling of the heat-affected region is limited by transport through the bonded regions at the particle-substrate interface. Thus, bonding has a prominent role in the heat dissipation process and the best bonded particles most rapidly bulk quench, avoiding mDRX. Here, the developed semi-empirical model aligns with the experimental findings and may help inform microstructural evolution during cold spray and post-spray processing.

FIB-SEM tomography↗

Beneficial Use Impairments, Degradation of Aesthetics, and Human Health: A Review

In environmental programs and blue/green space development, improving aesthetics is a common goal. There is broad interest in understanding the relationship between ecologically sound environments that people find aesthetically pleasing and human health. However, to date, few studies have adequately assessed this relationship, and no summaries or reviews of this line of research exist. Therefore, we undertook a systematic literature review to determine the state of science and identify critical needs to advance the field. Keywords identified from both aesthetics and loss of habitat literature were searched in PubMed and Web of Science databases. After full text screening, 19 studies were included in the review. Most of these studies examined some measure of greenspace/bluespace, primarily proximity. Only one study investigated the impacts of making space quality changes on a health metric. The studies identified for this review continue to support links between green space and various metrics of health, with additional evidence for blue space benefits on health. No studies to date adequately address questions surrounding the beneficial use impairment degradation of aesthetics and how improving either environmental quality (remediation) or ecological health (restoration) efforts have impacted the health of those communities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Contrasting responses to climate change at Himalayan treelines revealed by population demographics of two dominant species

Abstract Alpine treelines are expected to shift upward due to recent climate change. However, interpretation of changes in montane systems has been problematic because effects of climate change are frequently confounded with those of land use changes. The eastern Himalaya, particularly Langtang National Park, Central Nepal, has been relatively undisturbed for centuries and thus presents an opportunity for studying climate change impacts on alpine treeline uncontaminated by potential confounding factors. We studied two dominant species, Abies spectabilis (AS) and Rhododendron campanulatum (RC) , above and below the treeline on two mountains. We constructed 13 transects, each spanning up to 400 m in elevation, in which we recorded height and state (dead or alive) of all trees, as well as slope, aspect, canopy density, and measures of anthropogenic and animal disturbance. All size classes of RC plants had lower mortality above treeline than below it, and young RC plants (<2 m tall) were at higher density above treeline than below. AS shows little evidence of a position change from the historic treeline, with a sudden extreme drop in density above treeline compared to below. Recruitment, as measured by size–class distribution, was greater above treeline than below for both species but AS is confined to ~25 m above treeline whereas RC is luxuriantly growing up to 200 m above treeline. Synthesis . Evidence suggests that the elevational limits of RC have shifted upward both because (a) young plants above treeline benefited from facilitation of recruitment by surrounding vegetation, allowing upward expansion of recruitment, and (b) temperature amelioration to mature plants increased adult survival. We predict that the current pure stand of RC growing above treeline will be colonized by AS that will, in turn, outshade and eventually relegate RC to be a minor component of the community, as is the current situation below the treeline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hypervelocity impact flash expansion geometry under various spacecraft surface electrical conditions

A more congested space environment due to increasing space activities introduces new threats to spacecraft operators. Among these threats include hypervelocity impacts from microparticles (< 1 µg) in the form of meteoroids and space debris. These microparticles travel at speeds between 11.2 and 72.8 km/s with respect to the Earth and can impact spacecraft forming a small (~1 µm) and dense (~ 10 26 m -3 ) plasma. This plasma can generate a strong optical emission (impact flash) and a radio frequency (RF) emission. These emissions can lead to spacecraft electrical anomalies when the impacted spacecraft surface (target) carries high electrical potential due to various space weather effects. To understand the microparticle hypervelocity impact plasma and its associated threat to spacecraft electronics, we studied the hypervelocity impact flash expansion geometry under various spacecraft surface electrical conditions. Three high-speed broadband photomultiplier tubes (PMT) are used to capture the temporal evolution of the impact flash and the temporal evolution of the angular distribution of the impact flash expansion geometry in a 3 MV electrostatic dust accelerator during a ground-based experiment. Overall, results indicate that the impact surface electrical condition has a statistically significant influence on the impact flash geometry, and a strong similarity between the impact plasma and flash expansion geometry. Thus, this paper provides new experimental support for the impact flash origin from and connection with the impact plasma, and serves as the first impact flash expansion geometry characterization under various impact surface electrical conditions in a collisionless environment (< 10 -5 Torr).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Applying double cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5

Abstract. Irrigated cultivation exerts a significant influence on the local climate and the hydrological cycle. The North China Plain (NCP) is known for its intricate agricultural system, marked by expansive cropland, high productivity, compact rotation, a semi-arid climate, and intensive irrigation practices. As a result, there has been considerable attention on the potential impact of this intensive irrigated agriculture on the local climate. However, studying the irrigation impact in this region has been challenging due to the lack of an accurate simulation of crop phenology and irrigation practices within the climate model. By incorporating double cropping with interactive irrigation, our study extends the capabilities of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, which has previously demonstrated commendable performance in simulating single-cropping scenarios. This allows for two-way feedback between irrigated crops and climate, further enabling the inclusion of irrigation feedback from both ground and vegetation perspectives. The improved crop modeling system shows significant enhancement in capturing vegetation and irrigation patterns, which is evidenced by its ability to identify crop stages, estimate field biomass, predict crop yield, and project monthly leaf area index. The improved simulation of large-scale irrigated crops in the NCP can further enhance our understanding of the intricate relationship between agricultural development and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low-velocity impact resistance and failure characteristics of all thermoplastic woven polymer-fiber-reinforced plastic composites

This study addresses the impact performances of recyclable composites made of all thermoplastic polymer-fiber-reinforced plastics (PFRPs), where the reinforcing fibers and matrix are made of thermoplastic polymers. Three woven PFRPs systems were evaluated, including polypropylene fibers, polypropylene matrix, and high-density polyethylene matrix. In low-velocity impact scenario with an impactor speed of less than 6 m/s, our results demonstrate the energy absorption capabilities of the flat laminate PFRPs compared to woven carbon fiber-reinforced plastics (CFRPs) and aluminum alloy 5052. For the systems studied, the PFRPs can reach the specific energy absorption 89% to 115% of the CFRPs. Even compared with the aluminum alloy 5052, the PFRPs can reach up to 97%. We investigate the failure morphologies of the PFRPs using X-ray µCT scans. They reveal the PFRPs’ unique ductile failure morphologies compared to common CFRPs. In addition, we heal the perforated region in the PFRPs by applying the manufacturing process identical to the initial curing process. The healed panels are perforated again, and they recovered 30% to 38% of their original specific energy absorption, a recovery not achievable with CFRPs. This study provides valuable experimental results, and concrete insights into the potential applications of recyclable PFRPs in various engineering fields. It emphasizes their excellent energy-absorbing capability and repairability.

CFRPs↗

Modeling the impact of measured and projected climate and management systems on agricultural fields: Surface runoff, soil moisture, and soil erosion

Abstract As global climate change poses a challenge to crop production, it is imperative to prioritize effective adaptation of agricultural systems based on a scientific understanding of likely impacts. In this study, we applied an integrated watershed modeling framework to examine the impacts of projected climate on runoff, soil moisture, and soil erosion under different management systems in Central Oklahoma. The proposed model uses measured climate data and three downscaled ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) at the water resources and erosion watershed to understand the impact of climate change and various climate conditions under three management systems: (1) continuous winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) under conventional tillage (WW‐CT; baseline system), (2) continuous winter wheat under no‐till (WW‐NT), and (3) cool and warm season forage cover crop mixes under no‐till (CC‐NT). The study indicates that the occurrence of agricultural drought is projected to increase while erosion rates will remain unchanged under the WW‐CT. In contrast, climate simulations imposed on the WW‐NT and CC‐NT systems significantly reduce runoff and sediment while preserving soil moisture levels. Especially, implementing the CC‐NT system can bolster food security and foster sustainable farming practices in Central Oklahoma in the face of a changing climate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Potential of Data Center Controls in Grid Services

The rapid proliferation of large data centers brings both challenges and opportunities for grid reliability. The data center resources and their potential flexibility have the potential to contribute resources to grid operations. Through capabilities like energy shifting and resource coordination, data centers can help reduce their net demand on the transmission network, as well as provide additional grid services to support reliable operation on the grid. While transient and long-term grid planning and operations are the scenarios that draw most attention, the quasi-steady state timeseries (QSTS) operation of data centers and grid bring interesting scenarios that can help evaluate the data center controls to aid grid services. This work is focused on modeling data centers for QSTS applications – incorporating the AI data center load profiles and building on the PNNL digital twin model for the thermal management loads to enable simulation studies to reveal the impact of data center controls on grid performance. This includes the integration of a QSTS battery and natural gas generator model to incorporate local resource impacts to the system. The simulation study is performed with a modified IEEE 24-Bus transmission system. Scenarios are focused on evaluating the data center load impacts on the transmission system and leveraging both data center and local generation controls to mitigate those impacts and provide additional grid services. The data center controls revealed the ability to contribute to two main kinds of grid services: preventing congestion on a weak grid by coordinating the data center resources with the collocated BESS and onsite generation; and the ability to help the grid operations during stressed times of operation like during a contingency. Leveraging these and other capabilities has the potential to help data centers become grid responsive assets, aiding in both their integration into the power system and grid reliability.

power grid simulation↗

An OpenStreetMaps based tool to study the energy demand and emissions impact of electrification of medium and heavy-duty freight trucks

In this paper, we present the mathematical formulation of an OpenStreetMaps (OSM) based tool that compares the costs and emissions of long-haul medium and heavy-duty (M&HD) electric and diesel freight trucks, and determines the spatial distribution of added energy demand due to M&HD EVs. The optimization utilizes a combination of information on routes from OSM, utility rate design data across the United States, and freight volume data, to determine these values. In order to deal with the computational complexity of this problem, we formulate the problem as a convex optimization problem that is scalable to a large geographic area. In our analysis, we further evaluate various scenarios of utility rate design (energy charges) and EV penetration rate across different geographic regions and their impact on the operating cost and emissions of the freight trucks. Our approach determines the net emissions reduction benefits of freight electrification by considering the primary energy source in different regions. Such analysis will provide insights to policy makers in designing utility rates for electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) operators depending upon the specific geographic region and to electric utilities in deciding infrastructure upgrades based on the spatial distribution of the added energy demand of M&HD EVs. To showcase the results, a case study for the U.S. state of Texas is conducted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO in a Warmer Climate

This study quantifies the impacts of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under anthropogenic warming by comparing climate change model simulations with declining and fixed strengths of the overturning. After the 1980s, a weakened AMOC is shown to reduce the strength of the annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce anomalous cross-equatorial northerly winds there, which strengthens ENSO variability by about 11%. An analysis of the Bjerknes stability index reveals that this intensification of ENSO results mainly from enhanced Ekman upwelling feedback due to amplified atmospheric wind response to SST anomalies and oceanic upwelling response to equatorial wind stress anomalies. The weakened AMOC also promotes the occurrence of Central Pacific El Niño events and reduces ENSO skewness. These AMOC impacts on ENSO magnitude and complexity throughout the twenty-first century are however smaller than ENSO variations expected from internal climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of climate and biophysical variability on global agriculture markets

Agricultural production is highly sensitive to changes in climate and weather patterns. The focus of the great majority of studies assessing climate impacts on agriculture has been on mean changes in agricultural responses. However, the manner in which global agricultural markets respond to the interannual variability of the climate and biophysical shocks is poorly understood. Here we show a strong transmission of interannual variations in climate-induced biophysical yield shocks to agriculture markets, which is magnified further by endogenous market fluctuations. We demonstrate the importance of imperfect versus perfect expectations of market and weather in generating the market fluctuations that play a key role in transferring the interannual variations to markets. We find that the volatility of market prices and consumption could be potentially reduced on average by 55% and 41%, respectively, with improved expectations, where agricultural producers make better decisions to adapt to climate and biophysical variability. We also find much heterogeneity in interannual variability across crops and regions, which is considerably mediated by trade as part of the economic response. Our study provides new insights on climate impacts on agricultural market variability and lays a foundation for further investigating the full range of climate impacts on biophysical and human systems.

Zhao, Xin↗

Enhancing Building Resilience: Maintaining Energy Efficiency and Thermal Comfort During Power Outages in Cold Climates

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and cold snaps, present significant challenges to building energy performance and occupant comfort. Highly correlated with climate events are widespread long duration power interruptions that may affect thousands of buildings and millions of customers. This study evaluates the impact of building energy performance and occupant thermal comfort in medium-sized office buildings in a cold climate region. Using energy models representing pre-1980 and 2019 vintages, simulations were conducted to assess energy performance under typical weather conditions and occupant thermal comfort during power interrupted extreme cold snap and heatwave climate events under both current 2020s and future 2050s weather conditions. The results show a projected 33% increase in cooling energy demand and a 19% reduction in heating energy by 2050. Findings reveal that older buildings are more susceptible to cold discomfort during cold snaps, while modern airtight buildings are more vulnerable to overheating during heatwaves. Various passive energy efficiency measures, such as improved infiltration control, thermal windows, solar-controlled windows, and cool envelopes, were evaluated for their ability to mitigate thermal discomforts. Solar controlled windows and weatherstripping contribute to reducing cold thermal discomfort by 21% during a power-interrupted cold snap. Solar-controlled windows were found to reduce hot thermal discomfort by 34% during a future power-interrupted heatwave. The study highlights the importance of targeted retrofitting strategies to enhance thermal resilience, especially during power outages, to ensure occupant safety and comfort during extreme climate events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Impact of Parameterized Lateral Mixing on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in a Coupled Climate Model

This study examines the impact of changing the lateral diffusion coefficient ARedi on the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The lateral diffusion coefficient ARedi is poorly constrained, with values ranging across an order of magnitude in climate models. The ACC is difficult to accurately simulate, and there is a large spread in eastward transport in the Southern Ocean (SO) in these models. This paper examines how much of that spread can be attributed to different eddy parameterization coefficients. A coarse-resolution, fully coupled model suite was run with A Redi = 400, 800, 1200, and 2400 m 2 s -1 . Additionally, two simulations were run with two-dimensional representations of the mixing coefficient based on satellite altimetry. Relative to the 400 m 2 s -1 case, the 2400 m 2 s -1 case exhibits 1) an 11% decrease in average wind stress from 50° to 65°S, 2) a 20% decrease in zonally averaged eastward transport in the SO, and 3) a 14% weaker transport through the Drake Passage. The decrease in transport is well explained by changes in the thermal current shear, largely due to increases in ocean density occurring on the northern side of the ACC. In intermediate waters these increases are associated with changes in the formation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific. We hypothesize that the deep increases are associated with changes in the wind stress curl allowing Antarctic Bottom Water to escape and flow northward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗