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At least 523 records · Page 29

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Resolving femtosecond photoinduced energy flow: capture of nonadiabatic reaction pathway topography and wavepacket dynamics from photoexcitation through the conical intersection seam (Final Technical Report)

The dynamics that take place within just tens to hundreds of femtoseconds following the absorption of light by a molecule can play a critical role in how the absorbed energy is directed, allowing it to be used for a specific function or dissipated harmlessly. The form of chemical change that occurs rapidly in these molecules is called a “nonadiabatic electronic transition.” Such transitions are known to mediate energy flow in natural biological systems such as the ultraviolet photoprotection mechanism of DNA and the first step of the human vision response. Understanding how these mechanisms work precisely may help scientists achieve controlled manipulation of solar energy or optical control of a wide range of energy management functions in artificial systems. Experimental methods, however, have not yet allowed a precisely resolved and complete measurement of nonadiabatic electronic transitions. This constitutes a major obstacle to progress in the field. For progress to occur that would inform a wide body of research aiming to efficiently harness the energy of light for practical purposes, it is especially important to benchmark computational models of the molecules undergoing these rapid changes with experimental measurements, in order to learn which models are accurate. With Dept. of Energy funding, we have made strong progress towards establishing a new optical method for experimentally detecting the full nonadiabatic electronic transition. This requires having coordinated pulses of light covering the visible through the mid-infrared range of the electromagnetic spectrum that last only ten femtoseconds. We have developed a new, relatively simple approach for generating such pulses of laser light, and have incorporated them into a time-resolved spectrometer for measuring rapid changes in molecules. These tools can provide the greater precision and new types of data that are needed to benchmark computational models of molecular change and thus to make progress in the field. Our tools were tested on graphene, an excellent solid-state sample for verifying the capabilities and limitations of our instrumentation. The investment made in these tools by the Dept. of Energy Office of Science will allow new fundamental scientific understanding of energy dynamics in molecules in future studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Single-molecule 3D imaging of HIV cellular entry by liquid-phase electron tomography

Enveloped viruses, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and SARS-CoV-2, target cells through membrane fusion process. The detailed understanding of the process is sought after for vaccine development but remains elusive due to current technique limitations for direct three-dimensional (3D) imaging of an individual virus during its viral entry. Recently, we developed a simple specimen preparation method for real-time imaging of metal dynamic liquid-vaper interface at nanometer resolution by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Here, we extended this method to study biology sample through snapshot 3D structure of a single HIV (pseudo-typed with the envelope glycoprotein of vesicular stomatitis virus, VSV-G) at its intermediate stage of viral entry to HeLa cells in a liquid-phase environment. By individual-particle electron tomography (IPET), we found the viral surface release excess lipids with unbound viral spike proteins forming ~50-nm nanoparticles instead of merging cell membrane. Moreover, the spherical-shape shell formed by matrix proteins underneath the viral envelope does not disassemble into a cone shape right after fusion. Further, the snapshot 3D imaging of a single virus provides us a direct structure-based understanding of the viral entry mechanism, which can be used to examine other viruses to support the development of vaccines combatting the current ongoing pandemic.

Kong, Lingli↗

Virtual Reality for Shoot/No-Shoot Decision Training in Law Enforcement: A Literature Review and Research Agenda

Virtual reality (VR) can materially improve “shoot / no-shoot” (SNS) training by giving officers realistic, repeatable practice making high-stakes decisions under pressure. Traditional tools—live-fire ranges and video simulators—build basics, but they cannot adapt to each officer in real time or fully mirror the complexity of the field. VR closes that gap by creating immersive scenarios that are safer, more flexible, easier to scale across units, and able to capture objective performance data. SNS decisions are not just about marksmanship; they rely on perception, judgment, memory, and the ability to hold fire when a threat is uncertain. Effective training therefore needs realism, decision complexity, and branching outcomes that reflect the true consequences of choices. These elements strengthen recognition of hostile intent while reducing false positives and building the self-control required in ambiguous situations. VR brings specific advantages: dynamic environments, full-body interaction, and the ability to measure performance with precision—enabling targeted feedback and better transfer of learning to the street. At the same time, responsible deployment must address scenario quality (credible environments and behaviors), lawful decision models, and user wellbeing (appropriate stress levels, comfort, and safety). Sandia’s VIPER Lab is positioned to lead this work. The team combines human-performance science, AI/ML, and VR/AR development with a deep equipment bench (e.g., omnidirectional treadmill, eye-tracking, haptics, multiple HMDs). This ecosystem supports building and validating next-generation SNS training that is immersive, measurable, and trustworthy. Bottom line: Investment in VR-enabled SNS training that blends evidence-based design with careful validation and legal safeguards is expected to pay off in safer, more consistent decision-making and improved community trust, delivered through training that is practical to deploy at scale.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Closed-form solutions towards real-time energy-optimal and collision-free speed planning with limited information

Under real-world driving conditions, available information is limited due to communication range, and connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) must plan and follow energy-optimal and collision-free speed trajectory with a high updating rate. To this end, this paper presents a holistic design of a speed planning algorithm using analytical closed-form optimal solutions. Using the simplest vehicle model, we derive closed-form solutions as a function of boundary conditions, and summarize them without and with state constraints imposed by speed limits and vehicle in front. Then, we introduce multiple modes (e.g., eco-approach to traffic signal) to properly respond dynamically changing situations, and present how to set boundary conditions for each mode, while guaranteeing nature of globally optimal solutions. Finally, we perform a large-scale simulation study to identify and quantify the energy impacts of CAVs for real-world driving routes. A simple but effective algorithm based on closed-form solutions shows a significant energy saving potential in comparison with human-driven vehicle and adaptive cruise controlled vehicle with connectivity.

Han, Jihun↗

Dynamically Learning Incentives for Load Control

As electrical generation becomes more distributed and volatile, and loads become more uncertain, controllability of distributed energy resources (DERs), regardless of their ownership status, will be necessary for grid reliability. Grid operators lack direct control over end-users' grid interactions, such as energy usage, but incentives can influence behavior -- for example, an end-user that receives a grid-driven incentive may adjust their consumption or expose relevant control variables in response. A key challenge in studying such incentives is the lack of data about human behavior, which usually motivates strong assumptions, such as distributional assumptions on compliance or rational utility-maximization. In this paper, we propose a general incentive mechanism in the form of a constrained optimization problem -- our approach is distinguished from prior work by modeling human behavior (e.g., reactions to an incentive) as an arbitrary unknown function. We propose feedback-based optimization algorithms to solve this problem that each leverage different amounts of information and/or measurements. We show that each converges to an asymptotically stable incentive with (near)-optimality guarantees given mild assumptions on the problem. Finally, we evaluate our proposed techniques in voltage regulation simulations on standard test beds. We test a variety of settings, including those that break assumptions required for theoretical convergence (e.g., convexity, smoothness) to capture realistic settings. In this evaluation, our proposed algorithms are able to find near-optimal incentives even when the reaction to an incentive is modeled by a theoretically difficult (yet realistic) function.

demand response↗

COVID-19 biomarkers based on respiratory microbiome content

COVID-19 patient care management would greatly benefit from new tools that enable accurate assessment of disease severity and stage, potentially enabling a personalized medicine approach. Detection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself, or even quantitation of viral loads, is not sufficient for accurate assessment of disease state beyond diagnosis of infection [eg, doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa344]. Levels of usual suspect protein biomarkers associated with host response to infection [eg, C-reactive protein (CRP); cytokines like IL-6, TNF-alpha, and IL-10; complement proteins like C3a and C5a], and of individual blood cell types (eg, leukocytes, lymphocytes, and subsets thereof), show limited correlation with disease severity and stage, with high patient-to-patient and study-to-study variability [eg, doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa248]. High-dimensional panels of biomarkers should have greater predictive power and resilience to unavoidable sources of variability; however, their assembly from proteins and cell types is extremely difficult, due to technical limitations in analyte measurement, especially with regard to starting material requirements and detection sensitivity. Host response profiling through Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) of gene expression patterns (ie, RNA-Seq) is a promising approach, but at the time of this project there were only two publicly available datasets of relevance [doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa203, doi:10.1080/22221751.2020.1747363], and close inspection of them revealed that each had at least one major flaw that severely undermined its value in supporting robust analysis of host response to SARS-CoV- 2 infection. However, the first of these studies [doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa203] fortuitously collected NGS data not only from host cells, but also from bacteria present in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) recovered from COVID-19 patients; and because the respiratory microbiome (in terms of bacterial species content) is far less complex than the human transcriptome, the NGS data collected were sufficient to provide coverage depth supporting robust analysis. Surprisingly, the authors of the study did not carry out a detailed analysis of these data and their potential for revealing important new information about COVID-19. Therefore, we carried out a meta-analysis of the dataset as a first step in evaluating the potential for profiling of respiratory microbiome dynamics as a means of accurately assessing COVID-19 disease state.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Perspectives on Next Steps in Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Much has happened in arms control over the last year as this chapter has been in development. The prospects for arms control as a viable national security tool have, if anything, grown darker. Russia has falsely equated tearing down the remaining arms control edifice with creating potential leverage vis-à-vis its actions in Ukraine. China has failed to update its talking points on being a responsible arms control actor with its massive nuclear force expansion. The United States has stated clearly that it is open for business on arms control and risk reduction, but it unfortunately has no customers in Russia and China. It remains unclear what specifically the United States is selling in terms of what it wants in a potential agreement. Competitive dynamics and an atmosphere of great power competition are driving all parties further away from the table.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Crystallization of ApoA1 and ApoE4 Nanolipoprotein Particles and Initial XFEL-Based Structural Studies

Nanolipoprotein particles (NLPs), also called “nanodiscs”, are discoidal particles with a patch of lipid bilayer corralled by apolipoproteins. NLPs have long been of interest due to both their utility as membrane-model systems into which membrane proteins can be inserted and solubilized and their physiological role in lipid and cholesterol transport via high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) maturation, which are important for human health. Serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) at X-ray free electron lasers (XFELs) is a powerful approach for structural biology of membrane proteins, which are traditionally difficult to crystallize as large single crystals capable of producing high-quality diffraction suitable for structure determination. To facilitate understanding of the specific role of two apolipoprotein/lipid complexes, ApoA1 and ApoE4, in lipid binding and HDL/LDL particle maturation dynamics, and to develop new SFX methods involving NLP membrane protein encapsulation, we have prepared and crystallized homogeneous populations of ApoA1 and ApoE4 NLPs. Crystallization of empty NLPs yields semi-ordered objects that appear crystalline and give highly anisotropic and diffuse X-ray diffraction, similar to fiber diffraction. Several unit cell parameters were approximately determined for both NLPs from these measurements. Thus, low-background, sample conservative methods of delivery are critical. Here we implemented a fixed target sample delivery scheme utilizing the Roadrunner fast-scanning system and ultra-thin polymer/graphene support films, providing a low-volume, low-background approach to membrane protein SFX. This study represents initial steps in obtaining structural information for ApoA1 and ApoE4 NLPs and developing this system as a supporting scaffold for future structural studies of membrane proteins crystalized in a native lipid environment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Dynamic Risk Framework for the Optimization of Physical Security Posture of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper describes an ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize security and cost of nuclear power plants. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). EMRALD was leveraged to optimize the security posture of a nuclear power plant by integrating force-on-force (FOF) simulations and operator mitigation actions including the dynamic and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). To illustrate the methodology, four attack scenarios were modeled in a commercially available FOF simulation tool using a hypothetical nuclear power plant facility. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes, as well as the probabilistic risk of core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures were modeled in EMRALD dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the number of armed responders can be optimized, while still maintaining the same protection level as the initial security posture. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A proton beam energy modulator for rapid proton therapy

We present the design for a rapid proton energy modulator with radiofrequency accelerator cavities, which can deliver the proton radiation dose to varied depth in human tissues much faster than traditional mechanical beam energy degraders. The proton energy modulator is designed as a multi-cell 1-m long accelerator working at 2.856 GHz. Each individual accelerator cavity is powered by a 400 kW compact klystron to provide an accelerating/decelerating gradient of 30 MV/m. The high gradient is enabled by the individual power coupling regime, which provides a high shunt impedance. Beam dynamics simulations were performed, showing that the energy modulator can provide ±30 MeV of beam energy change for a 150 MeV, 7 mm long (full length) proton bunch, and the total energy spread of 3 MeV is satisfactory to clinical needs. A prototype experiment of a single cell has been built and tested, and the low-power microwave measurement results agree very well with simulations. The energy modulator is optimized for the 150 MeV cyclotron proton beam, while this approach can work with different beam energies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Dynamic Risk Framework for the Physical Security of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper describes ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize the security and cost of nuclear power plants. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). EMRALD is leveraged to optimize the security posture of a nuclear power plant by integrating force-on-force (FOF) simulations and operator mitigation actions, including dynamic and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). To illustrate the methodology, four attack scenarios are modeled in a commercially available FOF simulation tool using a hypothetical nuclear power plant facility. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes, as well as the probabilistic risk of a core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures are modeled in EMRALD dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the number of armed responders can be optimized, while still maintaining the same protection level as the initial security posture. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Reinforcement learning in discrete action space applied to inverse defect design

Abstract Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms that include Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) have found tremendous success in computer games such as Go, Shiga and Chess. Such learning algorithms have demonstrated super-human capabilities in navigating through an exhaustive discrete action search space. Motivated by their success in computer games, we demonstrate that RL can be applied to inverse materials design problems. We deploy RL for a representative case of the optimal atomic scale inverse design of extended defects via rearrangement of chalcogen (e.g. S) vacancies in 2D transition metal dichalcogenides (e.g. MoS 2 ). These defect rearrangements and their dynamics are important from the perspective of tunable phase transition in 2D materials i.e. 2H (semi-conducting) to 1T (metallic) in MoS 2 . We demonstrate the ability of MCTS interfaced with a reactive molecular dynamics simulator to efficiently sample the defect phase space and perform inverse design—starting from randomly distributed S vacancies, the optimal defect rearrangement of defects corresponds a line defect of S vacancies. We compare MCTS performance with evolutionary optimization i.e. genetic algorithms and show that MCTS converges to a better optimal solution (lower objective) and in fewer evaluations compared to GA. We also comprehensively evaluate and discuss the effect of MCTS hyperparameters on the convergence to solution. Overall, our study demonstrates the effectives of using RL approaches that operate in discrete action space for inverse defect design problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Nitrogen: A promising doping strategy for high-performance ovonic threshold switching selectors

The Ovonic Threshold Switching (OTS) selector serves as an essential component in the development of three-dimensional high-density memory integration technology. Nevertheless, the state-of-the-art high-performance OTS materials usually contain toxic elements such as arsenic (As), posing significant risks to both environmental and human health. Nitrogen (N), which belongs to the same group as arsenic (As), has emerged as a highly promising alternative for As doping. However, the underlying mechanisms that govern N-based OTS materials have not yet been extensively investigated. In this study, we delve into the effects of N doping on the structural, bonding, and electronic properties of amorphous GeSe (a-GeNSe) by ab initio molecular dynamics simulations to bridge the knowledge gap. Our findings indicate that upon N doping in a-GeSe, the formation of robust Ge-N bonds, along with N-centered tetrahedral and triangular structures, resulting in the sluggish atomic movement that enhances the thermal stability and endurance of a-GeNSe. The OTS characteristics are significantly influenced by the material’s electronic band structure, and thus the relatively slow performance drift can be attributed to the stabilization of mid-gap states, a result of N doping which effectively slows down the aging process of chalcogenide glass. Moreover, the increased mobility gap in a-GeNSe raises the threshold voltage (V th ), making it more compatible with commercially available phase-change memory materials. Furthermore, our findings reveal the extensive impact of the N element on a typical OTS material and offer valuable perspectives for alternative doping strategies that could potentially supplant As practices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Embracing the Intersections of Environmental Science, Engineering, and Geosciences to Solve Grand Challenges of the 21st Century

The U.S. National Academies report on Environmental Engineering for the 21st Century identified five grand challenges of sustainably supplying food, water, and energy; curbing climate change and adapting to its impacts; designing a future without pollution and waste; creating efficient, healthy, resilient cities; and fostering informed decisions and actions. (1) Addressing many of the grand challenges will require embracing the intersections of environmental science, engineering, and geosciences. These three fields are inherently interdisciplinary, and they naturally intersect with each other (Figure 1). Geosciences, or Earth sciences, study the dynamics of different spheres of Earth. One of its missions is to detect the availability of mineral, water, and fuel resources, for sustainable development, and new research opportunities were identified in “coevolution of life, environment, and climate” and “biogeochemical and water cycles in terrestrial environments and impacts of global change” by the U.S. National Research Council. (2) Environmental science and engineering focus on the spheres that intersect with human activities. Environmental science puts an emphasis on understanding the migration of naturally occurring and anthropogenic contaminants in the environment and their impact on ecosystem and human health, and environmental engineering centers on developing technologies for water supply, mineral exploration, and environmental remediation to mitigate adverse impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tethys: A Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Global Water Demand

Humans use water for many important tasks, such as drinking, growing food, and cooling power plants. Since future water demands depend on complex global interactions between economic sectors (e.g., demand for wheat in one country causing demand for water to grow that wheat in another country), it is often modeled at coarse spatial and temporal scales as part of models that account for complex, multi-sector system dynamics. However, models that project future water availability typically simulate physical processes at much finer scales. Tethys enables integration between these kinds of models by downscaling region-scale water demand projections using sector-specific proxies and formulas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An investigation of hard-disk drive circularity accounting for socio-technical dynamics and data uncertainty

The installed data storage capacity in the U.S. will reach 2.2 Zettabytes by 2025, generating about 50 million units of end-of-life (EOL) hard-disk drives (HDDs) per year. Due to data security concerns, most EOL HDDs are currently shredded (even when still functioning), representing an economic loss. Moreover, raw material extraction linked to the increased demand for storage causes environmental impacts. Besides mitigating the threat posed by sudden restrictions of raw materials, the circular economy (CE) offers to maximize value retention in the economy and reduce the environmental impacts of human activities. Common CE strategies are reusing and recycling products. However, the reuse of hard disk drives is currently burdened by the lack of trust HDD end-users have toward other non-physical means of data removal than shredding. Here, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is proposed to explore how techno-economic and social factors affect end-users' decisions to adopt EOL management practices other than shredding. The proposed method also accounts for data uncertainty by applying a semi-quantitative approach. Results demonstrate how increased green procurement and more robust standards could spur end-users' trust toward data-wiping technologies. Even when accounting for uncertainty, HDDs' reuse brings better environmental and economic benefits than HDD shredding followed by material recovery. The semi-quantitative approach proposed in this study could be more universally applied in future ABM, especially given the often-stochastic nature of such models. The developed ABM is also the first to represent several HDD industry stakeholders and demonstrate how the HDD shredding lock-in situation could be resolved.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗