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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

Development of constitutive models for cyclic plasticity and creep behavior of super alloys at high temperature

An uncoupled constitutive model for predicting the transient response of thermal and rate dependent, inelastic material behavior was developed. The uncoupled model assumes that there is a temperature below which the total strain consists essentially of elastic and rate insensitive inelastic strains only. Above this temperature, the rate dependent inelastic strain (creep) dominates. The rate insensitive inelastic strain component is modelled in an incremental form with a yield function, blow rule and hardening law. Revisions to the hardening rule permit the model to predict temperature-dependent kinematic-isotropic hardening behavior, cyclic saturation, asymmetric stress-strain response upon stress reversal, and variable Bauschinger effect. The rate dependent inelastic strain component is modelled using a rate equation in terms of back stress, drag stress and exponent n as functions of temperature and strain. A sequence of hysteresis loops and relaxation tests are utilized to define the rate dependent inelastic strain rate. Evaluation of the model has been performed by comparison with experiments involving various thermal and mechanical load histories on 5086 aluminum alloy, 304 stainless steel and Hastelloy X.

Haisler, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A two dimensional power spectral estimate for some nonstationary processes

A two dimensional estimate for the power spectral density of a nonstationary process is being developed. The estimate will be applied to helicopter noise data which is clearly nonstationary. The acoustic pressure from the isolated main rotor and isolated tail rotor is known to be periodically correlated (PC) and the combined noise from the main and tail rotors is assumed to be correlation autoregressive (CAR). The results of this nonstationary analysis will be compared with the current method of assuming that the data is stationary and analyzing it as such. Another method of analysis is to introduce a random phase shift into the data as shown by Papoulis to produce a time history which can then be accurately modeled as stationary. This method will also be investigated for the helicopter data. A method used to determine the period of a PC process when the period is not know is discussed. The period of a PC process must be known in order to produce an accurate spectral representation for the process. The spectral estimate is developed. The bias and variability of the estimate are also discussed. Finally, the current method for analyzing nonstationary data is compared to that of using a two dimensional spectral representation. In addition, the method of phase shifting the data is examined.

Smith, Gregory L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Effects of Atmospheric and Surface Dust on the Sublimation Rates of CO2 on Mars

We present an overview of our modeling work dedicated to study the effects of atmospheric dust on the sublimation of CO2 on Mars. The purpose of this study is to better understand the extent to which dust storm activity can be a root cause for interannual variability in the planetary CO2 seasonal cycle, through modifying the springtime regression rates of the south polar cap. We obtain calculations of the sublimation fluxes for various types of polar surfaces and different amounts of atmospheric dust. These calculations have been compared qualitatively with the regression patterns observed by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) in both visible and infrared wavelengths, for two years of very different dust histories (1999, and 2001).

Bonev, B. P.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Transport in the Subtropical Lowermost Stratosphere during CRYSTAL-FACE

We use in situ measurements of water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and total reactive nitrogen (NO(y)) obtained during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 to study summertime transport in the subtropical lowermost stratosphere. We use an objective methodology to distinguish the latitudinal origin of the sampled air masses despite the influence of convection, and we calculate backward trajectories to elucidate their recent geographical history. The methodology consists of exploring the statistical behavior of the data by performing multivariate clustering and agglomerative hierarchical clustering calculations, and projecting cluster groups onto principal component space to identify air masses of like composition and hence presumed origin. The statistically derived cluster groups are then examined in physical space using tracer-tracer correlation plots. Interpretation of the principal component analysis suggests that the variability in the data is accounted for primarily by the mean age of air in the stratosphere, followed by the age of the convective influence, and lastly by the extent of convective influence, potentially related to the latitude of convective injection [Dessler and Sherwuud, 2004]. We find that high-latitude stratospheric air is the dominant source region during the beginning of the campaign while tropical air is the dominant source region during the rest of the campaign. Influence of convection from both local and non-local events is frequently observed. The identification of air mass origin is confirmed with backward trajectories, and the behavior of the trajectories is associated with the North American monsoon circulation.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Transport in the Subtropical Lowermost Stratosphere during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment

We use in situ measurements of water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and total reactive nitrogen (NOy) obtained during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 to study summertime transport in the subtropical lowermost stratosphere. We use an objective methodology to distinguish the latitudinal origin of the sampled air masses despite the influence of convection, and we calculate backward trajectories to elucidate their recent geographical history. The methodology consists of exploring the statistical behavior of the data by performing multivariate clustering and agglomerative hierarchical clustering calculations and projecting cluster groups onto principal component space to identify air masses of like composition and hence presumed origin. The statistically derived cluster groups are then examined in physical space using tracer-tracer correlation plots. Interpretation of the principal component analysis suggests that the variability in the data is accounted for primarily by the mean age of air in the stratosphere, followed by the age of the convective influence, and last by the extent of convective influence, potentially related to the latitude of convective injection (Dessler and Sherwood, 2004). We find that high-latitude stratospheric air is the dominant source region during the beginning of the campaign while tropical air is the dominant source region during the rest of the campaign. Influence of convection from both local and nonlocal events is frequently observed. The identification of air mass origin is confirmed with backward trajectories, and the behavior of the trajectories is associated with the North American monsoon circulation.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Risks to Freshwater Subsistence Fisheries in Arctic Alaska: Insights and Uncertainty from Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus

Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fish populations are largely shaped by seasonal and long-term watershed hydrology. In this paper, we hypothesize how changing air temperature and precipitation will alter freeze and thaw processes, hydrology, and instream habitat to assess potential indirect effects, such as the change to the foraging and behavioral ecology, on Arctic fishes, using Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus as an indicator species. Climate change is expected to continue to alter hydrologic pathways, flow regimes, and, therefore, habitat suitability, connectivity, and availability for fishes. Warming and lengthening of the growing season will likely increase fish growth rates; however, the exceedance of threshold stream temperatures will likely increase physiological stress and alter life histories. We expect these changes to have mixed effects on Arctic subsistence fishes and fisheries. Management and conservation approaches focused on preserving the processes that create heterogeneity in aquatic habitats, genes, and communities will help maintain the resilience of Broad Whitefish and other important subsistence fisheries. Long-term effects are uncertain, so filling scientific knowledge gaps, such as identifying important habitats or increasing knowledge of abiotic variables in priority watersheds, is key to understanding and potentially mitigating likely impacts to Arctic fishes in a rapidly changing landscape.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Control Methods and Digital Twins for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

Advanced nuclear reactors offer a new set of features to energy generation, due to their ability to adapt to variable energy demand, operate autonomously, be deployed in rural locations and monitored remotely, afford compact size and lower power ratings, and rely on novel technologies to achieve safer operations. Thus, a requirement for the success of these reactors is the use of intelligent forms of control to track changing power demands, make autonomous decisions, and reduce the need for human involvement. Regulatory requirements pertaining to control of nuclear reactors could be met via historical means of control; however, these are not expected to enable the level of highly autonomous operations desired in advanced nuclear reactors. Historical control methods rely on both logical and high-performance (HP) control. These two types of control are usually used separately, with a human element being introduced whenever decisions are cascaded from one science to another. AI/ML control, on the other hand, can replace the human element in the current U.S. fleet of nuclear power plants (NPPs) by acting as a supervisory optimizer that understands the plant internal/external variables in order to make control decisions, and can easily handle non-linear and multi-input/multi out (MIMO) decisions—another requirement for advanced nuclear reactors that could be difficult to handle via logical and HP control. Because of the harsh operating environments produced in advanced reactors, resulting in the frequent failure of sensors and other types of equipment, and considering the lack of operating history for advanced nuclear reactors, control of advanced nuclear reactors would necessitate relying on a model that can track and adapt to the actual process (i.e., a digital twin). This digital twin can make approximations when knowledge and data are unavailable and would evolve as more knowledge is gained. The reactor control must also be risk-informed to account for the high-consequence nature of advanced reactors. This report introduces a high-level (i.e., not method- or process-specific) integration of the three different control and digital twinning methods able to meet the requirements for advanced nuclear reactors. These methods could be applied during both the operational and design stages of these reactors. The aim is to demonstrate how each method interfaces with and highlights enabling solutions necessitated by the unique features of advanced nuclear reactors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1993

Further studies to extend and test the area-time-integral technique applied to satellite data

The principal goal of this project is to establish relationships that would allow application of area-time integral (ATI) calculations based upon satellite data to estimate rainfall volumes. The research has been pursued using two different approaches, which for convenience can be designated as the 'fixed-threshold approach' and the 'variable-threshold approach'. In the former approach, an attempt is made to determine a single temperature threshold in the satellite infrared data that would yield ATI values for identifiable cloud clusters which are most closely related to the corresponding rainfall amounts. Results thus far have indicated that a strong correlation exists between the rain volumes and the satellite ATI values, but the optimum threshold for this relationship seems to differ from one geographic location to another. The difference is probably related to differences in the basic precipitation mechanisms that dominate in the different regions. The average rainfall rate associated with each cloudy pixel is also found to vary across the spectrum of ATI values. Work on the second, or 'variable-threshold', approach for determining the satellite ATI values was essentially suspended during this period due to exhaustion of project funds. Most of the ATI work thus far has dealt with cloud clusters from the Lagrangian or 'floating-target' point of view. For many purposes, however, the Eulerian or 'fixed-target' perspective is more appropriate. For a very large target area encompassing entire cluster life histories, the rain volume-ATI relationship would obviously be the same in either case. The important question for the Eulerian perspective is how small the fixed area can be made while maintaining consistency in that relationship.

Smith, Paul L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Road to Mach 10: A History of the X-43A Hypersonic Flight Test Program at NASA Dryden...Toward the Future

In terms of technology, the X-43A/Hyper-X represented a singular milestone. After nearly a half century of high hopes, studies, wind tunnel tests, proposals, and canceled projects, a scramjet-powered vehicle had flown. The performance of the engine qualified the scramjet design tools and scaling laws. In turn, the theoretical calculations and ground testing could be used to design more advanced engine concepts. Just as important, both the scramjet and vehicle systems had successfully operated in the variable temperatures and densities of the atmosphere. The X-43A systems were able to maintain the exact flight conditions necessary for the scramjet to operate properly. Control deflections to correct the engine-induced moments were close to pre-flight predictions. When the unexpected occurred, such as when the vehicle pitched up during the cowl opening on the second flight, the control system was sufficiently designed to correct the situation. The airframe and wing structure, the thermal protection material, and the internal conditions of the X-43A performed largely as predicted. The HXLV thermal anomaly during the ascent on the third flight and "the Mach 8 unpleasantness" during the descent indicated that the HXLV and X-43A were not as resilient to aerodynamic heating as expected. The X-43A 's airframe drag and lift both were slightly higher than predicted, but still within preflight uncertainty predictions. The stability and control were as predicted, as was the boundary layer transition. The biggest aerodynamic worry before the flight was the separation of the HXLV and the X- 43A. After all was said and done, this went exactly as predicted, proving that non-symmetrical/high-dynamic pressure stage separations could be performed. This in turn meant that two-stage-to-orbit vehicles employing this technology were feasible. The Hyper-X program also served as a training ground for a new generation of scramjet and hypersonic researchers. This included both NASA and contractor personnel, providing them with experience in ground testing and component development; vehicle design, construction, integration, system checkout, and, ultimately, flight testing and data analysis. Additionally, researchers learned the practical details of running a project within finite budget and time limits, about the ambiguousness of risk assessment, and about the need to spend a significant amount of time and effort dealing with engineering problems, such as those with the FAS, that have nothing to do with the project's research goals. Finally, all those who worked on the X-43A project now know what it is like to spend years transforming an idea into a functional vehicle, only for it to be lost in a matter of seconds. And then to go through years of work to correct the problems, to face the possibility that still more might exist, and finally to savor the triumph of two successful flights. For those who will work on the hypersonic projects that emerge in coming years, these experiences may prove to be the most valuable of all.

Peebles, Curtis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temporal partitioning of hatching, maturation, and surface activity by reptiles in Florida longleaf pine-wiregrass sandhills

Temporal partitioning of life history traits among syntopic reptiles can facilitate co-occurrence, but may be influenced by environmental factors and evolutionary history. We used 24 years of continuous capture data in the Florida sandhills to evaluate the timing and duration of hatching, maturation and/or surface activity for ten reptile species, spanning multiple clutch strategies, taxonomic relationships, and habits. We hypothesised: i) species would differ in seasonal timing of hatching and maturation; ii) hatching and maturation periods would be more seasonally-synchronised in fossorial than terrestrial or semi-aquatic reptiles; iii) monthly and annual temperature anomalies would be positively related to hatching, maturation, and surface activity anomalies, and iv) groupings of reptiles by clutch strategy, taxonomic relationship, and habit, would explain more variation in the timing and duration of hatching and maturation than species alone. Seasonal timing of response variables varied widely among species. Hatching peaked for > 1 species during most calendar months. Maturation and surface activity periods ranged from aseasonal to highly-seasonal among species. Hatching began 1.5 months earlier and was more prolonged for terrestrial than fossorial species overall. Hatching peaked in early to mid-summer for terrestrial and fossorial species, and winter for the semi-aquatic Kinosternon subrubrum. Terrestrial and fossorial species did not differ in average timing, duration, or overlap of maturation periods; semi-aquatic Liodytes pygaea matured more consistently across all seasons than other species. Monthly temperature anomalies were negatively correlated with monthly maturation for Plestiodon egregius. Annual temperature and precipitation anomalies were related to annual hatching, maturation, and surface activity trends for several species. Taxonomic relationship, habit, and species explained some variation in hatching and maturation timing and duration. Our results illustrate the influence of environment and evolutionary relationships on the timing of important life history traits. Keywords: Age class, Drift fence, Community, Interspecific, Life history

Zoology↗
NASA NTRS2003

Thermal Emission Spectra of Silica-coated Basalt and Considerations for Martian Surface Mineralogy

Among the most important discoveries made during the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission was that the rocky materials of Mars are broadly divisible into two distinct rock types. The geological significance of this finding is dependent on the mineralogy of these rock types as well as their geographic and stratigraphic positions. Much work has yet to be done to understand these relationships and the small-scale variability of these units. For now, it is worth considering various scenarios that could have resulted in Mars global-scale mineralogical dichotomy. Such work will make clearer what must be looked for in Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Thermal Imaging Spectrometer (THEMIS) data, what to test with other data sets, and what geological processes can be considered or ruled out as we advance with interpreting Martian geologic history. Here, we suggest that exogenic coatings of secondary silica on basaltic rocks may provide a plausible explanation for the newly discovered distribution of rock types.

Kraft, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Regional topographic rises on Venus - Geology of Western Eistla Regio and comparison to Beta Regio and Atla Regio

Magellan images are used to assess regional stratigraphic relationships in an attempt to establish the evolutionary history and characterize the styles of volcanism at Western Eistla Regio. The regional geologic characteristics of Beta Regio and Atla Regio, imaged by Magellan during the latter part of its first mapping cycle, are also assessed and compared to those of Western Eistla Regio so as to determine if all three of these areas evolved in a similar manner. The detailed characteristics of each region show them to be quite variable in the presence and distribution of coronae and tessera, suggesting that the detailed characteristics of the individual highlands are linked to the local geologic environment.

Senske, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Workshop on Jet Exhaust Noise Reduction for Tactical Aircraft - NASA Perspective

Jet noise from supersonic, high performance aircraft is a significant problem for takeoff and landing operations near air bases and aircraft carriers. As newer aircraft with higher thrust and performance are introduced, the noise tends to increase due to higher jet exhaust velocities. Jet noise has been a subject of research for over 55 years. Commercial subsonic aircraft benefit from changes to the engine cycle that reduce the exhaust velocities and result in significant noise reduction. Most of the research programs over the past few decades have concentrated on commercial aircraft. Progress has been made by introducing new engines with design features that reduce the noise. NASA has recently started a new program called "Fundamental Aeronautics" where three projects (subsonic fixed wing, subsonic rotary wing, and supersonics) address aircraft noise. For the supersonics project, a primary goal is to understand the underlying physics associated with jet noise so that improved noise prediction tools and noise reduction methods can be developed for a wide range of applications. Highlights from the supersonics project are presented including prediction methods for broadband shock noise, flow measurement methods, and noise reduction methods. Realistic expectations are presented based on past history that indicates significant jet noise reduction cannot be achieved without major changes to the engine cycle. NASA s past experience shows a few EPNdB (effective perceived noise level in decibels) can be achieved using low noise design features such as chevron nozzles. Minimal thrust loss can be expected with these nozzles (< 0.5%) and they may be retrofitted on existing engines. In the long term, it is desirable to use variable cycle engines that can be optimized for lower jet noise during takeoff operations and higher thrust for operational performance. It is also suggested that noise experts be included early in the design process for engine nozzle systems to participate in decisions that may impact the jet noise.

Huff, Dennis L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultrasonic characterization of material heterogeneities in stainless steel components produced by laser powder bed fusion

We introduce pulse-echo ultrasound as a method for characterizing the impact of powder bed fusion parameters on the properties of additively manufactured stainless-steel components, their material anisotropy, and location-dependent heterogeneity. Our results indicate that accurate characterization requires careful selection of ultrasonic propagation paths, which must consider the direction of additive layering, variations in processing parameters, and the component's geometry. We employed two distinct methods to estimate material properties from ultrasonic data: One assumes isotropy, while the other accounts for anisotropic interactions during the propagation of elastic waves. When applied to samples fabricated with laser energy densities ranging from 24 to 42 J/mm³ , these methods revealed transverse isotropy and weak anisotropy (quantified by small Thomsen parameters, ε = 0.0651 and γ = 0.0092) and less than a ∼6 % change in acoustic impedance. The assumption of isotropy, in this case, leads to small errors (less than 4 % or 1 % for Young's modulus in the build or transverse directions) when estimating orthotropic material properties using ultrasonic data measured along just two orthogonal directions, one of which must align with the build direction. By comparing ultrasonic measurements — which aggregate the spatial variability in material properties along the length of elastic wave propagation into a single value — with localized measurements obtained from surface nanoindentation, we uncovered and spatially profiled significant differences between the surface and interior properties. Specifically, the surface Young's modulus decreased from approximately 210 GPa to 180 GPa within a depth of about 3 mm. We attribute this surface-localized heterogeneity in PBF-fabricated components to distinct thermal histories experienced by the surface and interior regions. Collectively, the results of this study establish a framework for the ultrasonic characterization of material heterogeneity and anisotropy in material properties and demonstrate its application in additively manufactured metal components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Study of Coupled Water and Vapor Flow, Heat Transfer, and Solute Transport in Variably-Saturated Deformable Soil During Freeze-Thaw Cycles

As climate change intensifies, soil water flow, heat transfer, and solute transport in the active, unfrozen zones within permafrost and seasonally frozen ground exhibit progressively more complex interactions that are difficult to elucidate with measurements alone. For example, frozen conditions impede water flow and solute transport in soil, while heat and mass transfer are significantly affected by high thermal inertia generated from water-ice phase change during the freeze-thaw cycle. To assist in understanding these subsurface processes, the current study presents a coupled two-dimensional model, which examines heat conduction-convection with water-ice phase change, soil water (liquid water and vapor) and groundwater flow, advective-dispersive solute transport with sorption, and soil deformation (frost heave and thaw settlement) in variably saturated soils subjected to freeze-thaw actions. This coupled multiphysics problem is numerically solved using the finite element method. The model's performance is first verified by comparison to a well-documented freezing test on unsaturated soil in a laboratory environment obtained from the literature. Then based on the proposed model, we quantify the impacts of freeze-thaw cycles on the distribution of temperature, water content, displacement history, and solute concentration in three distinct soil types, including sand, silt and clay textures. The influence of fluctuations in the air temperature, groundwater level, hydraulic conductivity, and solute transport parameters was also comparatively studied. The results show that (a) there is a significant bidirectional exchange between groundwater in the saturated zone and soil water in the vadose zone during freeze-thaw periods, and its magnitude increases with the combined influence of higher hydraulic conductivity and higher capillarity; (b) the rapid dewatering ahead of the freezing front causes local volume shrinkage within the non-frozen region when the freezing front propagates downward during the freezing stage and this volume shrinkage reduces the impact of frost heave due to ice formation. This gradually recovers when the thawed water replenishes the water loss zone during the thawing stage; and (c) the profiles of soil moisture, temperature, displacement, and solute concentration during freeze-thaw cycles are sensitive to the changes in amplitude and freeze-thaw period of the sinusoidal varying air temperature near the ground surface, hydraulic conductivity of soil texture, and the initial groundwater levels. Our modeling framework and simulation results highlight the need to account for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical behaviors to better understand soil water and groundwater dynamics during freeze-thaw cycles and further help explain the observed changes in water cycles and landscape evolution in cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drought impacts on microbial trait distribution and feedback to soil carbon cycling

Abstract Quantifying the impact of drought on microbial processes and its consequences for soil carbon cycling is hindered by the lack of underlying mechanistic understanding. Therefore, there is a need to scale up the physiological response to changing water status from individual soil microbes to collective communities across different ecosystems. Here we propose the use of a framework that incorporates trait‐based ecology to link drought‐impacted microbial processes to rates of soil carbon decomposition and stabilisation. We briefly synthesise existing knowledge on the effects of drought on microbial physiology at the individual to community scale, before integrating this understanding within a framework incorporating life‐history strategy, ecological strategy and biochemistry. This framework highlights a dynamic allocation to high yield (Y), resource acquisition (A) and stress tolerance (S) pathways as environmental conditions change. Y‐A‐S strategies represent sets of traits that tend to correlate due to physiological or evolutionary trade‐offs. This framework enables assessment of microbial processes along two key environmental gradients of water and resource availability, both of which are constrained by drought. The variable chemistry of biomass and necromass produced under different physiological strategies in response to drying–rewetting impacts organic matter decomposition and stabilisation in soils, and should also be considered when quantifying soil carbon balance. We highlight that diversion of resources away from microbial growth can alter soil organic matter chemistry and its persistence depending on the kind of microbial compounds produced. To advance such a framework, we highlight avenues of research that would enable the further identification and quantification of traits linked to Y‐A‐S strategies and the physiological outcomes at the community level under drought and rewetting, and conclude by hypothesising how ecosystem‐level changes might feedback on to the soil carbon cycle. A scalable understanding of microbial drought‐response mechanisms affecting soil carbon cycling will transform the way microbial physiology is represented in ecosystem studies. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Practical flight test method for determining reciprocating engine cooling requirements

It is pointed out that efficient and effective cooling of air-cooled reciprocating aircraft engines is a continuing problem for the general aviation industry. Miley et al. (1981) have reported results of a study regarding the controlling variables for cooling and installation aerodynamics. The present investigation is concerned with experimental methods which were developed to determine cooling requirements of an instrumented prototype or production aircraft, taking into account a flight test procedure which has been refined and further verified with additional testing. It is shown that this test procedure represents a straightforward means of determining cooling requirements with minimal instrumentation. Attention is given to some background information, the development history of the NACA cooling correlation method, and the proposed modification of the NACA cooling correlation.

Ward, D. T.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The use of activity-based cost estimation as a management tool for cultural change

It will be shown that the greatest barrier to American exploration of the planet Mars is not the development of the technology needed to deliver humans and return them safely to earth. Neither is it the cost of such an undertaking, as has been previously suggested, although certainly, such a venture may not be inexpensive by some measures. The predicted costs of exploration have discouraged serious political dialog on the subject. And, in fact, even optimistic projections of the NASA budget do not contain the resources required, under the existing development and management paradigm, for human space exploration programs. It will be demonstrated that the perception of the costs of such a venture, and the cultural responses to the perceptions are factors inhibiting American exploration of the moon and the planet Mars. Cost models employed in the aerospace industry today correctly mirror the history of past space programs, and as such, are representative of the existing management and development paradigms. However, if, under this current paradigm no major exploration programs are feasible, then cost analysis methods based in the past may not have great utility in exploring the needed cultural changes. This paper explores the use of a new type of model, the activity based cost model, which will treat management style as an input variable, in a sense providing a tool whereby a complete, affordable program might be designed, including both the technological and management aspects.

Mandell, Humboldt↗