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At least 523 records · Page 29

Kepler Data Analysis: Non-Gaussian Noise and Fourier Gaussian Process Analysis of Stellar Variability

We develop a statistical analysis model of Kepler stellar flux data in the presence of planet transits, non-Gaussian noise, and stellar variability. We first develop a model for the Kepler noise probability distribution in the presence of outliers, which make the noise probability distribution non-Gaussian. We develop a signal likelihood analysis based on this probability distribution, in which we model the signal as a sum of the star variability and planetary transits. We argue that these components need to be modeled together if optimal signal is to be extracted from the data. For the stellar variability model we develop an optimal Gaussian process analysis using a Fourier-based Wiener filter approach, where the power spectrum is non-parametric and learned from the data. We develop high dimensional optimization of the objective function, where we jointly optimize all the model parameters, including thousands of star variability modes, and planet transit parameters. We apply the method to Kepler-90 data and show that it gives a better match to the stellar variability than the existing methods, and robustly handles noise outliers. As a consequence, the planet radii have a higher value than what the existing methods give, including splines and celerite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Further analysis of the effects of baffles on combustion instability

A computerized analytical model, developed to predict the effects of baffles on combustion instability, was modified in an effort to improve the ability to properly predict stability effects. The model was modified: (1) to replace a single spatially-averaged response factor by separate values for each baffle compartment; (2) to calculate the axial component of the acoustic energy flux, and (3) to permit analysis of traveling waves in a thin annular chamber. Allowance for separate average response factors in each baffle compartment was found to significantly affect the predicted results. With this modification, an optimum baffle length was predicted which gave maximum stability.

Oberg, C. L.↗

Energetic particle flux experiment (IMP F and G)

The data reduction procedures and programs for analysis of the IMP F and G energetic particle flux experiments are summarized. The IMP-F experiment contained two thin-window Geiger-Mueller detectors and an ionization chamber. There were two IMP-G experiments: one with six Geiger-Mueller detectors and an ionization chamber, and the other with two funnel mouthed channeltrons in a parallel plate electrostatic analyzer. These experiments measured particles in the energy range above 20 keV (IMP-F) and above approximately 5 keV (IMP-G). A bibliography is presented of papers containing the scientific results. These data were predominantly used for the study of low energy solar particles from flares.

Anderson, K. A.↗

Q3 Report for FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

This report describes the work and activities carried out towards the completion of each of the following milestones in FY25 Q3: 1. Demonstrate workflow for generating self-consistent CESOL plasma profiles + first wall and divertor loading prediction and generate the CAT plasma and neutron loading needed for further engineering analysis. • Benchmark between two first wall heat flux mapping methods, identify importance of various heat flux sources and physics impact of using fully coupled CESOL vs post-analysis evaluation. 2. Generate medium fidelity parametrized CAD. • Generate parametrized CAD components for the CAT example case via either user-defined modules called within the geometry generation or by defeatured/parametrized CAD, including DCLL blanket matched to divertor boundary and magnets. Define materials, labels, and boundary conditions for passing the mesh to CFD tools. 3. Demonstrate multiphysics magnet analysis. • Demonstrate magnet analysis workflow called from the FREDA workflow, and 4. Demonstrate nuclear analysis. • Add model to OpenFOAM and/or other codes possibly including Diablo to account for tritium diffusion in solids.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Net Carbon Flux due to Deforestation and Forest Re-Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Analysis using a Process-Based Model

We developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling, and land cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (non-flooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study of the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging, and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970-1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of approx. 0.35 PgC/yr (1PgC = 1 x 10(exp I5) gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of approx. 7 PgC from 1970- 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989-1 998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared to the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by approx. 1 PgC from 1970-1998, while different assumptions about land cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).

Hirsch, A. I.↗

Hermeticity of SiC/SiC composite and monolithic SiC tubes irradiated under radial high-heat flux

Demonstration of hermetic SiC fiber–reinforced SiC matrix composite cladding under normal operating environments has been identified as one of the most critical feasibility issues for accident-tolerant fuel cladding in light-water reactors. This study provides critical experimental data needed for understanding the effects of irradiation on hermeticity. SiC composite and monolithic tubes were neutron-irradiated to 2 displacements per atom with and without a nominal radial heat flux of 0.6 MW/m2 to produce a simulated in-pile stress state for the normal operation of a light-water reactor. The through-thickness temperature gradient under irradiation results in a gradient in swelling, which causes a significant stress buildup. Such irradiation-induced stress was modeled using a commercial finite element analysis code. The radial heat flux–irradiation synergism was experimentally investigated by constructing a special irradiation capsule and evaluating the helium hermeticity of the specimens. The simulated stress state exhibited a near equi-biaxial tensile axial and hoop stress of ~150 MPa at the inner surface of the SiC composite tube. This stress level is potentially beyond the matrix cracking stress. Degradation of hermeticity of the SiC composite tubes was observed after irradiation, indicating irradiation-induced cracking, whereas the irradiated monolithic SiC tubes remained hermetic. In conclusion, the results indicate that loss of hermeticity caused by radiation-induced microcracking is a potential issue for SiC composite cladding, depending on the magnitude of the temperature gradients. Coating the outer surface of the cladding was identified as a mitigation strategy that might overcome the cracking issue.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fabrication and Testing of Micro Flux Monitors in the High Flux Isotope Reactor

Neutron dosimetry is a critical technique to measure the neutron flux, fluence, and energy spectrum of nuclear reactors and can be used to indicate fuel reloading, high-power operations, or changes in cycle length. This work presents results of a novel device named the micro flux monitor, which is a miniaturized neutron dosimeter made from small quantities (100s of nanograms) of Ti, Al, Ni, and Au metals deposited on Si and high-purity fused silica substrates using standard semiconductor fabrication techniques. Approximately 1,250 of these devices were produced, and 40 were irradiated in the pneumatic tube facility of the Neutron Activation Analysis Laboratory at the High Flux Isotope Reactor. Testing demonstrated that dosimeter metals can be deposited predictably and repeatedly in multiple geometries, including as quick response (QR) codes. Neutron flux measurements with these devices were within 3% of measurements made using standard flux monitors, demonstrating the efficacy of these devices. Devices were also tested at 500°C under a N2 atmosphere and showed minimal degradation, suggesting they could be deployed for neutron dosimetry measurements in high-temperature advanced reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Some features of the small-scale solar wind fluctuations

We have investigated small-scale variations of the solar wind ion flux measured with Faraday cups onboard the Prognoz-8 satellite. These measurements have a high time resolution of 1.24 seconds for intervals with a duration of several hours and as high as 0.02 seconds for some periods of about 1 hour duration. The main goal of this work is the determination of the quantitative features of fast ion flux fluctuations using mainly spectral analysis but also other methods. We also identify their association with interplanetary plasma parameters. Particularly, it is shown that the slope of the power spectra in the frequency range from 1E-4 to 6E-2 Hz is close to the classical Kolmogorov (-5/3) law. We also discuss some intervals with a very high level of the relative amplitude of flux fluctuations (10-20 percent) which were observed near the Earth's bow shock in the foreshock region. The use of the wavelet method for the long time series allows us to study the temporal evolution of power spectra.

Zastenker, G.↗

Differential Velocity Between Solar Wind Protons and Alpha Particles in Pressure Balance Structures

Pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common high plasma beta feature in high latitude, high speed solar wind. They have been proposed as remnants of coronal plumes. If true, they should reflect the observation that plumes are rooted in unipolar magnetic flux concentrations in the photosphere and are heated as oppositely directed flux is advected into and reconnects with the flux concentration. A minimum variance analysis (MVA) of magnetic discontinuities in PBSs showed there is a larger proportion of tangential discontinuities than in the surrounding high speed wind, supporting the hypothesis that plasmoids or extended current sheets are formed during reconnection at the base of plumes. To further evaluate the character of magnetic field discontinuities in PBSs, differential streaming between alpha particles and protons is analyzed here for the same sample of PBSs used in the MVA. Alpha particles in high speed wind generally have a higher radial flow speed than protons. However, if the magnetic field is folded back on itself, as in a large amplitude Alfven wave, alpha particles will locally have a radial flow speed less than protons. This characteristic is used here to distinguish between folded back magnetic fields (which would contain rotational discontinuities) and tangential discontinuities using Ulysses high latitude, high speed solar wind data. The analysis indicates that almost all reversals in the radial magnetic field in PBSs are folded back field lines. This is found to also be true outside PBSs, supporting existing results for typical high speed, high latitude wind. There remains a small number of cases that appear not to be folds in the magnetic field and which may be flux tubes with both ends rooted in the Sun. The distinct difference in MVA results inside and outside PBSs remains unexplained.

Yamauchi, Y.↗

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Hoffert, M. I.↗

Differential Velocity between Solar Wind Protons and Alpha Particles in Pressure Balance Structures

Pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common high-plasma beta feature in high-latitude, high-speed solar wind. They have been proposed as remnants of coronal plumes. If true, they should reflect the observation that plumes are rooted in unipolar magnetic flux concentrations in the photosphere and are heated as oppositely directed flux is advected into and reconnects with the flux concentration. A minimum variance analysis (MVA) of magnetic discontinuities in PBSs showed there is a larger proportion of tangential discontinuities than in the surrounding high-speed wind, supporting the hypothesis that plasmoids or extended current sheets are formed during reconnection at the base of plumes. To further evaluate the character of magnetic field discontinuities in PBSs, differential streaming between alpha particles and protons is analyzed here for the same sample of PBSs used in the MVA. Alpha particles in high-speed wind generally have a higher radial flow speed than protons. However, if the magnetic field is folded back on itself, as in a large-amplitude Alfven wave, alpha particles will locally have a radial flow speed less than protons. This characteristic is used here to distinguish between folded back magnetic fields (which would contain rotational discontinuities) and tangential discontinuities using Ulysses high-latitude, high-speed solar wind data. The analysis indicates that almost all reversals in the radial magnetic field in PBSs are folded back field lines. This is found to also be true outside PBSs, supporting existing results for typical high-speed, high-latitude wind. There remains a small number of cases that appear not to be folds in the magnetic field and which may be flux tubes with both ends rooted in the Sun. The distinct difference in MVA results inside and outside PBSs remains unexplained.

Yamauchi, Yohei↗

Preliminary Measurements on the BOLT Geometry in the Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel

Experiments were performed in the Mach 3.5 Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel on the BOundary-Layer Transition (BOLT) geometry. The goal of this campaign was to assess changes to the transition front by varying the freestream noise and the model surface quality. The model was printed of polycarbonate and is 30% scale of the flight geometry. It was tested under noisy and quiet conditions at different streamwise positions in the tunnel and was also tested before and after improvements were made to the model surface through sanding and gap reduction. Pitch and yaw angles were nominally zero. The model surface temperature was measured using infrared thermography and thermocouples as the unit Reynolds number was swept from 4.75 – 15.8 × 10 6 m −1 . Boundary-layer transition was observed near the midspan of the model for unit Reynolds numbers above 10×10 6 m −1 in quiet flow, while transition was already observed on the shoulders below 5×10 6 m −1 in noisy flow. The model surface enhancements improved the symmetry of the transition front for quiet flow but made only slight differences for noisy flow. In quiet flow, the impact of streamwise positioning on transition was more significant on the model shoulders compared to the central region. The difference in the shoulder heating was likely due to variation in noise radiated from the nozzle sidewalls. The total temperature and initial wall temperatures were near 300 K and 293 K, respectively, which generally resulted in negative convective heat-flux values into the model. Hot-wire anemometry was also utilized to characterize the freestream and to conduct a planar survey near the base of the model for the 7.92 × 10 6 m −1 quiet condition. The survey captured the thickening of the boundary layer at the centerline and the vortical nature of the flow outboard of it. Spectral analysis of the mass-flux fluctuations near the midspan demonstrates that the boundary layer is laminar and suggests that the thick boundary layer caused the relatively warm centerline observed in the infrared images.

boundary layer transition↗

Preliminary Measurements on the BOLT Geometry in the Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel

Experiments were performed in the Mach 3.5 Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel on the BOundary-Layer Transition (BOLT) geometry. The goal of this campaign was to assess changes to the transition front by varying the freestream noise and the model surface quality. The model was printed of polycarbonate and is 30% scale of the flight geometry. It was tested under noisy and quiet conditions at different streamwise positions in the tunnel and was also tested before and after improvements were made to the model surface through sanding and gap reduction. Pitch and yaw angles were nominally zero. The model surface temperature was measured using infrared thermography and thermocouples as the unit Reynolds number was swept from 4.75 -- 15.8 x 10^6 m^{-1}. Boundary-layer transition was observed near the midspan of the model for unit Reynolds numbers above 10 x 10^6 m^{-1} in quiet flow, while transition was already observed on the shoulders below 5 x 10^6 m^{-1} in noisy flow. The model surface enhancements improved the symmetry of the transition front for quiet flow but made only slight differences for noisy flow. In quiet flow, the impact of streamwise positioning on transition was more significant on the model shoulders compared to the central region. The difference in the shoulder heating was likely due to variation in noise radiated from the nozzle sidewalls. The total temperature and initial wall temperatures were near 300 K and 293 K, respectively, which generally resulted in negative convective heat-flux values into the model. Hot-wire anemometry was also utilized to characterize the freestream and to conduct a planar survey near the base of the model for the 7.92 x 10^6 m^{-1} quiet condition. The survey captured the thickening of the boundary layer at the centerline and the vortical nature of the flow outboard of it. Spectral analysis of the mass-flux fluctuations near the midspan demonstrates that the boundary layer is laminar and suggests that the thick boundary layer caused the relatively warm centerline observed in the infrared images.

boundary layer transition↗

Mechanisms of heat flux across the Southern Greenland continental shelf in 1/10° and 1/12° ocean/sea ice simulations

The increased presence of warm Atlantic water on the Greenland continental shelf has been connected to the accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, particularly in the southwest and southeast shelf regions. Results from two high-resolution coupled ocean-sea ice simulations that utilized either the 1/10-degree Parallel Ocean Program (POP) or the 1/12-degree HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) are used to understand the flux of heat on and off the southern Greenland shelf. The analysis reveals that the region of greatest heat flux onto the shelf is southeast Greenland. On the southwestern shelf, heat is mainly exported from the shelf to the interior basins. We identify differences in the shelf break current structure and on-shelf heat content between the two simulations. Just south of the Denmark strait, there is a seasonally persistent pattern of multi-day variability in the cross-shelf heat flux in both simulations. In the POP simulation, this high-frequency signal results in net on-shore heat flux. In the HYCOM simulation, the signal is weaker and results in net off-shelf heat flux. This variability is consistent with Denmark Strait Overflow eddies traveling along the shelf break.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Satellite-derived surface latent heat fluxes in a rapidly intensifying marine cyclone

The aim of this article is to estimate surface latent heat fluxes in the vicinity of a rapidly deepening cyclone before and during its period of most rapid intensification. This is done with a bulk parameterization scheme and remotely sensed input data. A method for estimating the difference in specific humidity between the surface and a 10-m height is investigated using the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager-observed integrated water vapor field and a sea surface temperature analysis. The surface latent heat flux fields generally have estimated errors below 40 percent south of 40 deg N and outside the region of high integrated water vapor values associated with frontal bands. The method of estimating surface latent heat fluxes for the case study was found to be usable in most regions of the northwest Atlantic Ocean except for those locations directly adjacent to coastlines in instances of offshore flow and in the vicinity of surface fronts.

Miller, Douglas K.↗