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At least 523 records · Page 29

Prediction of Adverse Events in Time Series Data Using ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox)

Abstract:An open-source toolbox called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox) that operates from within the Matlab programming environment is introduced. The toolbox provides an open source, special-purpose functionality that can be used specifically for the prediction or forecasting of adverse events in time series data. It also provides a single, unifying framework in which to compare a variety of combinations of algorithmic approaches addressing this problem. The architectural framework also offers the flexibility for expansion to accommodate the newest, latest popular regression and detection methods for this particular problem, enabling the development of an infrastructure that can act as a proving ground platform for comparing new techniques to the state of the art. As such, its intention is to act as a catalyst in advancing the state of the art in technologies related to this problem. There are a variety of other toolboxes that offer similar capabilities and features, however they are either more suitable as general purpose machine learning toolboxes or are only available commercially or through agreements. ACCEPT fills that niche by offering visibility into a specific approach for addressing the adverse event prediction problem.

programming environments↗

Non-partial wave treatment of reactive and non-reactive scattering Coupled integral equation formalism.

Coupled integral equations are derived for the full scattering amplitudes for both reactive and nonreactive channels. The equations do not involve any partial wave expansion and are obtained using channel operators for reactive and nonreactive collisions. These coupled integral equations are similar in nature to equations derived for purely nonreactive collisions of structureless particles. Using numerical quadrature techniques, these equations may be reduced to simultaneous algebraic equations which may then be solved.

Hayes, E. F.↗

Program manual for ASTOP, an Arbitrary space trajectory optimization program

The ASTOP program (an Arbitrary Space Trajectory Optimization Program) designed to generate optimum low-thrust trajectories in an N-body field while satisfying selected hardware and operational constraints is presented. The trajectory is divided into a number of segments or arcs over which the control is held constant. This constant control over each arc is optimized using a parameter optimization scheme based on gradient techniques. A modified Encke formulation of the equations of motion is employed. The program provides a wide range of constraint, end conditions, and performance index options. The basic approach is conducive to future expansion of features such as the incorporation of new constraints and the addition of new end conditions.

Horsewood, J. L.↗

Computer-aided analysis of nonlinear problems in transport phenomena

The paper describes algorithms for equilibrium and steady-state problems with coefficients in the expansions derived by the Galerkin weighted residual method and calculated from the resulting sets of nonlinear algebraic equations by the Newton-Raphson method. Initial approximations are obtained from nearby solutions by continuation techniques as parameters are varied. The Newton-Raphson technique is preferred because the Jacobian of the solution is useful for continuation, for analyzing the stability of solutions, for detecting bifurcation of solution families, and for computing asymptotic estimates of the effects on any solution of small changes in parameters, boundary conditions, and boundary shape.

Brown, R. A.↗

Numerical simulations of counterstreaming plasmas and their relevance to interhemispheric flows

The collisionless expansion of counterstreaming plasmas has been studied in order to elucidate the basic physical processes that may be operating during the initial refilling of depleted flux tubes after a magnetic storm. The numerical technique applied is briefly described, and simulation results are presented. The simulation geometry consisted of two high-density H(+)-O(+) electron plasmas separated by a low-density H(+)-electron plasma. The temporal evolution of the expanding plasmas and the electostatic potential in the region between the two sources is described. The main interacting streams are found to be stable with respect to both the ion acoustic and ion cyclotron modes and only the suprathermal forerunner ions are unstable with respect to the ion cyclotron mode. The results also suggest that a localized potential hill can form at the equator and that this potential hill can play an important role in the subsequent trapping and thermalization of the ion streams.

Singh, N.↗

A knowledge-based expert system for inferring vegetation characteristics

A prototype knowledge-based expert system VEG is presented that focuses on extracting spectral hemispherical reflectance using any combination of nadir and/or directional reflectance data as input. The system is designed to facilitate expansion to handle other inferences regarding vegetation properties such as total hemispherical reflectance, leaf area index, percent ground cover, phosynthetic capacity, and biomass. This approach is more robust and accurate than conventional extraction techniques previously developed.

Kimes, Daniel S.↗

Micromechanical combined stress analysis: MICSTRAN, a user manual

Composite materials are currently being used in aerospace and other applications. The ability to tailor the composite properties by the appropriate selection of its constituents, the fiber and matrix, is a major advantage of composite materials. The Micromechanical Combined Stress Analysis (MICSTRAN) code provides the materials engineer with a user-friendly personal computer (PC) based tool to calculate overall composite properties given the constituent fiber and matrix properties. To assess the ability of the composite to carry structural loads, the materials engineer also needs to calculate the internal stresses in the composite material. MICSTRAN is a simple tool to calculate such internal stresses with a composite ply under combined thermomechanical loading. It assumes that the fibers have a circular cross-section and are arranged either in a repeating square or diamond array pattern within a ply. It uses a classical elasticity solution technique that has been demonstrated to calculate accurate stress results. Input to the program consists of transversely isotropic fiber properties and isotropic matrix properties such as moduli, Poisson's ratios, coefficients of thermal expansion, and volume fraction. Output consists of overall thermoelastic constants and stresses. Stresses can be computed under the combined action of thermal, transverse, longitudinal, transverse shear, and longitudinal shear loadings. Stress output can be requested along the fiber-matrix interface, the model boundaries, circular arcs, or at user-specified points located anywhere in the model. The MICSTRAN program is Windows compatible and takes advantage of the Microsoft Windows graphical user interface which facilitates multitasking and extends memory access far beyond the limits imposed by the DOS operating system.

Naik, R. A.↗

Soft x ray window encapsulant for HgI2 detectors

HgI2 is an excellent semiconductor material for a low energy, room temperature x-ray spectrometer. The high values of the atomic numbers for its constituent elements gives high x-ray and gamma ray stopping power. The band gap of HgI2 is significantly higher than other commonly used semiconductors. Owing to the large value band gap, the leakage current for HgI2 devices is smaller, thus allowing low noise performance. Devices fabricated from HgI2 crystals have demonstrated energy resolution sufficient to distinguish the x-ray emission from the neighboring elements on the periodic table. Also the power requirements of HgI2 are very low. These characteristics make a HgI2 spectrometer an ideal component in a satellite based detection system. Unfortunately, HgI2 crystals tend to deteriorate with time, even if protected by standard semiconductor encapsulants. This degradation ruins the performance of the device in terms of its energy resolution and pulse amplitude. The degrading mechanism is believed to be material loss occurring from below the electrodes, due to high vapor pressure of HgI2 at room temperature. To address this major obstacle to rapid expansion of HgI2 technology, a research program aimed at improving device stability by encapsulation with inert polymeric materials was carried out. The program focused specifically on optimizing the encapsulant materials and their deposition techniques. The principal objectives for this program were device encapsulation, device testing, and accelerated testing to ensure very long term stability of these high resolution sensors. A variety of encapsulants were investigated with the selection criteria based on their chemical diffusion barrier properties, mechanical stability, reactivity, and morphology of encapsulant films. The investigation covered different classes of encapsulants including solvent based encapsulants, vapor deposited encapsulants, and plasma polymerized encapsulants. A variety of characterization techniques were employed to examine their effectiveness in stabilizing HgI2 devices; these included permeability evaluation, vacuum and heat testing, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) as well as studying the detector performance of coated detectors. The plasma polymerized films appear to have entirely solved the HgI2 degradation problem. Another achievement of this program was the development of an accelerated testing technique which correlates extremely well with long term tesing.

Entine, G.↗

A hybrid perturbation Galerkin technique with applications to slender body theory

A two step hybrid perturbation-Galerkin method to solve a variety of applied mathematics problems which involve a small parameter is presented. The method consists of: (1) the use of a regular or singular perturbation method to determine the asymptotic expansion of the solution in terms of the small parameter; (2) construction of an approximate solution in the form of a sum of the perturbation coefficient functions multiplied by (unknown) amplitudes (gauge functions); and (3) the use of the classical Bubnov-Galerkin method to determine these amplitudes. This hybrid method has the potential of overcoming some of the drawbacks of the perturbation method and the Bubnov-Galerkin method when they are applied by themselves, while combining some of the good features of both. The proposed method is applied to some singular perturbation problems in slender body theory. The results obtained from the hybrid method are compared with approximate solutions obtained by other methods, and the degree of applicability of the hybrid method to broader problem areas is discussed.

Geer, James F.↗

Task reports on developing techniques for scattering by 3D composite structures and to generate new solutions in diffraction theory using higher order boundary conditions

There are two tasks described in this report. First, an extension of a two dimensional formulation is presented for a three dimensional body of revolution. A Fourier series expansion of the vector electric and magnetic fields is employed to reduce the dimensionality of the system, and an exact boundary condition is employed to terminate the mesh. The mesh termination boundary is chosen such that it leads to convolutional boundary operators for low O(n) memory demand. Second, rigorous uniform geometrical theory of diffraction (UTD) diffraction coefficients are presented for a coated convex cylinder simulated with generalized impedance boundary conditions. Ray solutions are obtained which remain valid in the transition region and reduce uniformly those in the deep lit and shadow regions. A uniform asymptotic solution is also presented for observations in the close vicinity of the cylinder.

Volakis, John L.↗

Metal matrix composites: Testing, analysis, and failure modes; Proceedings of the Symposium, Sparks, NV, Apr. 25, 26, 1988

The present conference discusses the tension and compression testing of MMCs, the measurement of advanced composites' thermal expansion, plasticity theory for fiber-reinforced composites, a deformation analysis of boron/aluminum specimens by moire interferometry, strength prediction methods for MMCs, and the analysis of notched MMCs under tensile loading. Also discussed are techniques for the mechanical and thermal testing of Ti3Al/SCS-6 MMCs, damage initiation and growth in fiber-reinforced MMCs, the shear testing of MMCs, the crack growth and fracture of continuous fiber-reinforced MMCs in view of analytical and experimental results, and MMC fiber-matrix interface failures.

Johnson, W. S.↗

Polymer matrix composites on LDEF experiments M0003-9 and M0003-10

Over 250 polymer matrix composites were exposed to the natural space environment on Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) experiments M0003-9 and 10. The experiments included a wide variety of epoxy, thermoplastic, polyimide, and bismalimide matrix composites reinforced with graphite, glass, or organic fibers. A review of the significant observations and test results obtained to date is presented. Estimated recession depths from atomic oxygen exposure are reported and the resulting surface morphologies are discussed. The effects of the LDEF exposure on the flexural strength and modulus, short beam shear strength, and coefficient of thermal expansion of several classes of bare and coated composites are reviewed. Lap shear data are presented for composite-to-composite and composite-to-aluminum alloy samples that were prepared using different bonding techniques and subsequently flown on LDEF.

Steckel, Gary L.↗

Approximate optimal guidance for the advanced launch system

A real-time guidance scheme for the problem of maximizing the payload into orbit subject to the equations of motion for a rocket over a spherical, non-rotating earth is presented. An approximate optimal launch guidance law is developed based upon an asymptotic expansion of the Hamilton - Jacobi - Bellman or dynamic programming equation. The expansion is performed in terms of a small parameter, which is used to separate the dynamics of the problem into primary and perturbation dynamics. For the zeroth-order problem the small parameter is set to zero and a closed-form solution to the zeroth-order expansion term of Hamilton - Jacobi - Bellman equation is obtained. Higher-order terms of the expansion include the effects of the neglected perturbation dynamics. These higher-order terms are determined from the solution of first-order linear partial differential equations requiring only the evaluation of quadratures. This technique is preferred as a real-time, on-line guidance scheme to alternative numerical iterative optimization schemes because of the unreliable convergence properties of these iterative guidance schemes and because the quadratures needed for the approximate optimal guidance law can be performed rapidly and by parallel processing. Even if the approximate solution is not nearly optimal, when using this technique the zeroth-order solution always provides a path which satisfies the terminal constraints. Results for two-degree-of-freedom simulations are presented for the simplified problem of flight in the equatorial plane and compared to the guidance scheme generated by the shooting method which is an iterative second-order technique.

Feeley, T. S.↗

Determining Aircraft Moments of Inertia from Flight Test Data

Flight test maneuver design and dynamic modeling techniques were developed for determining aircraft moments of inertia from flight test data. Full nonlinear rigid-body rotational equations of motion were used in the analysis, with aerodynamic moment dependencies modeled by linear expansions in the aircraft states and controls. Aerodynamic parameters were estimated simultaneously with inertia parameters using equation-error modeling applied to flight test data from maneuvers designed specifically for this problem. The approach was demonstrated using a nonlinear F-16 simulation, then applied to a remotely-piloted subscale aircraft flight test. Errors in the aircraft moment of inertia parameters determined from simulated F-16 flight test maneuver data were less than 6 percent compared to the true values in the simulation. Flight test results for the subscale aircraft were within 6 percent of ground-test values obtained using the same aircraft.

moments of inertia↗

Determining Aircraft Moments of Inertia from Flight Test Data

Flight test maneuver design and dynamic modeling techniques were developed for determining aircraft moments of inertia from flight test data. Full nonlinear rigid-body rotational equations of motion were used in the analysis, with aerodynamic moment dependencies modeled by linear expansions in the aircraft states and controls. Aerodynamic parameters were estimated simultaneously with inertia parameters using equation-error modeling applied to flight test data from maneuvers designed specifically for this problem. The approach was demonstrated using a nonlinear F 16 simulation, then applied to a remotely piloted subscale aircraft flight test. Errors in the aircraft moment of inertia parameters determined from simulated F-16 flight test maneuver data were less than 6 percent compared to the true values in the simulation. Flight test results for the subscale aircraft were within 6 percent of ground-test values obtained using the same aircraft.

Aircraft Moments of Inertia↗

Efficient method for approximating nonlinear dynamics: applications to uncertainty propagation and estimation

High-order Taylor series expansions can be used to model nonlinear dynamics at the cost of integrating a large set of variational equations to obtain high-order state-transition tensors (STTs). This paper presents an innovative technique for approximating the high-order STTs that reduces significantly the computational cost by retaining only the dominant secular terms. We propagate the low-order partial derivatives of Kepler’s equation, which only requires the integration of six additional equations to extend an n-th order approximation to order (n + 1). The approximation stems from the Lindstedt-Poincare procedure and exploits the stability properties of orbital motion. Since the method makes no dynamical assumptions, it can accommodate any source of orbital perturbations. We show how the approximation of the second-order STT significantly increases the accuracy of the linear method for uncertainty propagation with only a small computational overhead. Finally, we derive a high-order approximate extended Kalman filter that implements the proposed approximation of the STT and improves the performance of linear filters. Examples of application with different perturbation sources include the heliocentric orbit of an asteroid, an orbiter around Europa, and an Earth-orbiting satellite.

Park, Ryan S↗

Determining Aircraft Moments of Inertia from Flight Test Data

Flight test maneuvers and dynamic modeling techniques were developed for determining aircraft moments of inertia from flight test data. Full nonlinear rigid-body rotational equations of motion were used in the analysis, with aerodynamic moment dependencies modeled by linear expansions in the aircraft states and controls. Aerodynamic parameters were estimated simultaneously with inertia parameters using equation-error modeling applied to flight test data from maneuvers designed specifically for this problem. The approach was demonstrated using a nonlinear F 16 simulation, then applied to a remotely-piloted subscale aircraft flight test. Errors in the aircraft moment of inertia parameters determined from simulated F-16 flight test data were less than 6 percent compared to the true values in the simulation. Flight test results for the subscale aircraft were within 6 percent of ground-test values obtained using the same aircraft.

Parameter estimation↗

A hybrid perturbation Galerkin technique with applications to slender body theory

A two-step hybrid perturbation-Galerkin method to solve a variety of applied mathematics problems which involve a small parameter is presented. The method consists of: (1) the use of a regular or singular perturbation method to determine the asymptotic expansion of the solution in terms of the small parameter; (2) construction of an approximate solution in the form of a sum of the perturbation coefficient functions multiplied by (unknown) amplitudes (gauge functions); and (3) the use of the classical Bubnov-Galerkin method to determine these amplitudes. This hybrid method has the potential of overcoming some of the drawbacks of the perturbation method and the Bubnov-Galerkin method when they are applied by themselves, while combining some of the good features of both. The proposed method is applied to some singular perturbation problems in slender body theory. The results obtained from the hybrid method are compared with approximate solutions obtained by other methods, and the degree of applicability of the hybrid method to broader problem areas is discussed.

Geer, James F.↗