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NASA NTRS2024

iGCE and MitoFlyght Spaceflight Missions: Unraveling Oxidative Stress Responses in Space

Thriving In DEep Space (TIDES) initiative aims to comprehensively understand how hostile environments such as the Moon and Mars affect human physiology. Here we present two NASA-selected spaceflight experiments under the TIDES portfolio, iGCE (Integrated Gravity Continuum Experiment) and MitoFlyght (Mitochondrial Investigation of Oxidative Stress in Flies). We hypothesize that exposure to spaceflight conditions induces oxidative stress responses that negatively impact physiology. The iGCE mission employs two well-established spaceflight models, Drosophila melanogaster and C.elegans, using Redwire’s Multi-use Variable-g Platform (MVP) hardware to assess changes in cardiac, muscle, and nervous systems across five different gravities: Hypergravity (2g), Earth (1g), Mars (0.37g), Moon (0.16g), and microgravity (ug). This mission focuses on uncovering alterations in protein homeostasis, autophagy, and mitochondrial function conserved across species. In the MitoFlyght mission to the ISS, Drosophila will be housed in the Vented Fly Box (VFB). This mission evaluates the oxidative stress response and autophagic pathway in muscle, heart, and nervous system. Additionally, we will (a) use the genetic mutant, Tor7/P to test whether increased autophagy is beneficial or a maladaptive response to the spaceflight stressors, and (b) utilize fly lines with tissue-specific expression (neuronal, muscle, and cardiac) of an antioxidant gene, SOD2 (superoxide dismutase) as a potential countermeasure. Data from these missions will be compared with previous LEO-based datasets to identify shared signatures. Furthermore, cross-species analysis of the transcriptomic data from other invertebrate and vertebrate spaceflight studies will help determine evolutionarily conserved pathways perturbed by space stressors. Overall, both these missions aim to provide crucial insights into the mechanisms underlying oxidative stress responses, synaptic changes, and heart and muscle deficits, facilitating the identification of diagnostic and therapeutic targets to mitigate the adverse health effects of long-duration space habitation. Ultimately, this research will enhance our ability to thrive in deep space and inform future missions.

Janani Iyer↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ncompare: A Python Package for Comparing netCDF Structures

Earth science researchers and data engineers have a common problem: they often need to compare data files to see what is different between them. A lot of time is spent developing code to test differences. When it comes to comparing multidimensional data file formats like netCDFs (Network Common Data Form), this is particularly challenging and time-consuming, since there is frequently a need to evaluate the differences between dimension sizes, variable structures, and variable attributes, especially for regression testing. Since netCDFs are widely used in Earth science — with climate models, oceanographic or atmospheric reanalyses, and observational data — improved means of evaluating netCDF files can help enable a wide range of applications. We have developed a reusable open source approach through `ncompare`, which is a Python package for comparing netCDF structures [[https://github.com/nasa/ncompare]]. The `ncompare` tool compares the structure of two Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) files at the command line. It facilitates rapid comparisons by generating a formatted display of the matching and non-matching groups, variables, and associated metadata between two NetCDF datasets. The user has the option to colorize the terminal output for ease of viewing, and `ncompare` can optionally save comparison reports in text, comma-separated value (CSV), and/or Microsoft Excel formats. Despite the availability of tools (such as ncmpidiff or nccmp) that compare the values of variables, there was not previously a readily available, Python-based tool for rapid visual comparisons of group and variable structures, attributes, and chunking. `ncompare` was developed at NASA’s Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) and is a collaboration with NASA Openscapes [[https://nasa-openscapes.github.io]] mentors across 11 of NASA’s data centers. Openscapes’ overarching vision is to support scientific researchers using NASA Earthdata as they migrate their workflows to the cloud. Relevant links: - https://github.com/nasa/ncompare - https://github.com/pyOpenSci/software-submission/issues/146 - https://nasa-openscapes.github.io

Daniel Kaufman↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of CLARA-A2 and ISCCP-H Cloud Cover Climate Data Records over Europe with ECA&D Ground-Based Measurements

Clouds are of high importance for the climate system but they still remain one of its principal uncertainties. Remote sensing techniques applied to satellite observations have assisted tremendously in the creation of long-term and homogeneous data records; however, satellite data sets need to be validated and compared with other data records, especially ground measurements. In the present study, the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of Total Cloud Cover (TCC) from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) Cloud, Albedo And Surface Radiation dataset from AVHRR data—edition 2 (CLARA-A2) and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project H-series (ISCCP-H) is analyzed over Europe. The CLARA-A2 data record has been created using measurements of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument onboard the polar orbiting NOAA and the EUMETSAT MetOp satellites, whereas the ISCCP-H data were produced by a combination of measurements from geostationary meteorological satellites and the AVHRR instrument on the polar orbiting satellites. An intercomparison of the two data records is performed over their common period, 1984 to 2012. In addition, a comparison of the two satellite data records is made against TCC observations at 22 meteorological stations in Europe, from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D). The results indicate generally larger ISCCP-H TCC with respect to the corresponding CLARA-A2 data, in particular in the Mediterranean. Compared to ECA&D data, both satellite datasets reveal a reasonable performance, with overall mean TCC biases of 2.1 and 5.2% for CLARA-A2 and ISCCP-H, respectively. This, along with the higher correlation coefficients between CLARA-A2 and ECA&D TCC, indicates the better performance of CLARA-A2 TCC data.

Tzallas, Vasileios↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Continuous Intercomparison of Radiation Codes (CIRC): Phase I Cases

CIRC aspires to be the successor to ICRCCM (Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models). It is envisioned as an evolving and regularly updated reference source for GCM-type radiative transfer (RT) code evaluation with the principle goal to contribute in the improvement of RT parameterizations. CIRC is jointly endorsed by DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and the GEWEX Radiation Panel (GRP). CIRC's goal is to provide test cases for which GCM RT algorithms should be performing at their best, i.e, well characterized clear-sky and homogeneous, overcast cloudy cases. What distinguishes CIRC from previous intercomparisons is that its pool of cases is based on observed datasets. The bulk of atmospheric and surface input as well as radiative fluxes come from ARM observations as documented in the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) product. BBHRP also provides reference calculations from AER's RRTM RT algorithms that can be used to select the most optimal set of cases and to provide a first-order estimate of our ability to achieve radiative flux closure given the limitations in our knowledge of the atmospheric state.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Haiti Agriculture II: Evaluating the Success of Reforestation Practices in Haiti

The Caribbean country of Haiti has an extensive history of deforestation and environmental degradation stemming from French colonization. Over the past 33 years, the Haiti Reforestation Partnership (HRP) and their partners, Comprehensive Development Program (CODEP), have planted approximately 15.52 million trees. However, these efforts lacked scientific guidance to ensure successful forest stand survival. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the HRP to create a habitat suitability model (HSM) by using PlanetScope and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) imagery. The team also incorporated Landsat 8 and 9 OLI surface temperature, Centre National de L’Information Geo-Spatiale (CNIGS) Airborne Lidar, and ancillary datasets to analyze areas suitable for future reforestation efforts. The habitat model suggested locations with higher forest stand survival based on topography, soil health, climate, and feasibility to access suggested locations. We confirmed the HSM through a cross-analyzation of high enhanced vegetation index (EVI) values. Areas with lower EVI values and higher suitability based on the HSM were suggested for future planting as they lack well-established forest stands but have optimal conditions for growth. Through the creation of the HSM, the team provided the HRP with static maps of high suitability, a 3D printed elevation model, and a guidebook for animators. Additionally, the team provided a structured video highlighting the HRP’s efforts. Effective reforestation and better forest stand survival would help to achieve the goal of securing community food security. This would also serve as a guide to expand planting efforts into other locations and communities.

Kelli Roberts↗

NASA NTRS2000

Automation of the CFD Process on Distributed Computing Systems

A script system was developed to automate and streamline portions of the CFD process. The system was designed to facilitate the use of CFD flow solvers on supercomputer and workstation platforms within a parametric design event. Integrating solver pre- and postprocessing phases, the fully automated ADTT script system marshalled the required input data, submitted the jobs to available computational resources, and processed the resulting output data. A number of codes were incorporated into the script system, which itself was part of a larger integrated design environment software package. The IDE and scripts were used in a design event involving a wind tunnel test. This experience highlighted the need for efficient data and resource management in all parts of the CFD process. To facilitate the use of CFD methods to perform parametric design studies, the script system was developed using UNIX shell and Perl languages. The goal of the work was to minimize the user interaction required to generate the data necessary to fill a parametric design space. The scripts wrote out the required input files for the user-specified flow solver, transferred all necessary input files to the computational resource, submitted and tracked the jobs using the resource queuing structure, and retrieved and post-processed the resulting dataset. For computational resources that did not run queueing software, the script system established its own simple first-in-first-out queueing structure to manage the workload. A variety of flow solvers were incorporated in the script system, including INS2D, PMARC, TIGER and GASP. Adapting the script system to a new flow solver was made easier through the use of object-oriented programming methods. The script system was incorporated into an ADTT integrated design environment and evaluated as part of a wind tunnel experiment. The system successfully generated the data required to fill the desired parametric design space. This stressed the computational resources required to compute and store the information. The scripts were continually modified to improve the utilization of the computational resources and reduce the likelihood of data loss due to failures. An ad-hoc file server was created to manage the large amount of data being generated as part of the design event. Files were stored and retrieved as needed to create new jobs and analyze the results. Additional information is contained in the original.

Tejnil, Ed↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Standard measures in Analogs of Spaceflight

Standard measures are defined as research measures (physiological, performance, or otherwise) that quantify the subject’s health and performance before, during, and after a spaceflight or a spaceflight analog mission. The Standard Measures Cross-Cutting Project (SMCCP) collects and analyzes standard measures that support assessment and quantification of health risks and efficacy of countermeasures and technologies required to prevent or mitigate adverse outcomes from exposure to the spaceflight environment. SMCCP uses the following spaceflight analogs: - Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) in Houston, TX: 4-person isolation/confinement; nominal mission duration of 45 days; run by the Human Research Program (HRP). SMCCP uses weekly questionnaires to gather data on the crewmembers’ emotional and mental state and collects blood samples biweekly to measure crewmembers’ serum cortisol levels at the start, middle, and end of the mission. - Institute for Biomedical Problems (IBMP) Ground-Based Experimental Complex, called NEK, in Moscow, Russia: 6-person isolation/confinement; duration of 8 months; run by IBMP. Standard measures data collected during NEK are the same as for HERA above. - :envihab in Cologne, Germany: 12-person bed rest facility; closed environment; 30 to 60-day campaigns; run by the German Aerospace Center (DLR). For bedrest studies, SMCCP uses the international standard measures as documented in the International Academy of Astronautics publication titled Guidelines for Standardization of Bed Rest Studies in the Spaceflight Context (June 2014). These international standard measures evaluate potential changes in bone, muscle, cardiovascular, and visual systems, as well as changes in psychology and nutrition. The international standard measures complement those collected during studies by individual investigators and allow comparison of responses across different bed rest and countermeasures durations. In this presentation, we will review available SMCCP data collected during the recent isolation studies in HERA (C6) and NEK (SIRIUS-21), and during the SANS (SM1, SM2) bed rest studies in :envihab. These standard measures datasets are made available to concurrent investigators in the given mission or campaign via data sharing agreements and/or data sharing plans and to other investigators that have been granted retrospective access to the data (researchers with IRB approved protocols, risk custodians) to advance understanding of physiological and behavioral risks associated with these spaceflight analogs.

Standard Measures↗

NASA NTRS1992

Optimizing view/illumination geometry for terrestrial features using Space Shuttle and aerial polarimetry

This paper describes to relationship of polarimetric observations from orbital and aerial platforms and the determination optimum sun-target-sensor geometry. Polarimetric observations were evaluated for feature discrimination. The Space Shuttle experiment was performed using two boresighted Hasselblad 70 mm cameras with identical settings with linear polarizing filters aligned orthogonally about the optic axis. The aerial experiment was performed using a single 35 mm Nikon FE2 and rotating the linear polarizing filter 90 deg to acquire both minimum and maximum photographs. Characteristic curves were created by covertype and waveband for both aerial and Space Shuttle imagery. Though significant differences existed between the two datasets, the observed polarimetric signatures were unique and separable.

Israel, Steven A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impacts of Assimilating MLS Temperature on the Upper Stratosphere in GEOS-5

Standard configurations of the GEOS-5 data assimilation system use nadir infrared and microwave sounders that provide deep-layer constraints on the thermal structure in the stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere, this information is currently provided by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Units (AMSU-As) on NOAA s polar-orbiting satellites. The highest peaking AMSU-A channel (14) peaks near 2.5hPa. Evaluation of the upper stratosphere reveals substantial biases in the temperature, cased in part by biases in the underlying GCM, and difficulties in representing the stratopause structure under disturbed conditions. This work demonstrates, unsurprisingly, that the assimilation into GEOS-5 of temperature profiles derived from EOS-Aura MLS leads to a substantially better representation of the stratopause structure from a climatological perspective and for disturbed events. Future plans with GEOS-5 include a reanalysis that includes numerous "research" datasets alongside the operational NOAA datasets that were used in MERRA. As preparation for this reanalysis, the present study examines how assimilating the MLS observations impact the error statistics for the AMSU-A instruments. Discussion will address the issue of bias correction for the AMSU-A Channel 14 radiances, which is presently turned off in GEOS-5 because of the absence of accurate temperature observations that can anchor the GEOS-5 analyses. The issue of what can be done in periods when no limb-sounder data are available will also be addressed.

Pawson, S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A Covid-19 Study

The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.

ASRS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A COVID-19 Study

ASRS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From Simulation to Reality With Random Noise

The challenging environment of autonomous vehicle (AV) navigation necessitates certain functions be performed by deep neural networks. Optimizing these models involves collecting vast quantities of domain-specific training data and ensuring that the dataset is representative of expected conditions. High-fidelity simulation plays a vital role in making this process feasible, allowing a wide range of scenarios to be explored at low cost. However, learning from simulation introduces subtle biases into models, which can degrade real-world performance in unpredictable ways. This effect can be mitigated with learning schemes specialized to bridge distributional shifts (transfer learning). Given the complex nature of these methods, the underlying models, and their environments, meaningfully evaluating performance is notstraight forward. Many unrelated factors can effect an improvement in generalization accuracy, but a full ablation analysis is often difficult. To tease out signal from noise, it is necessary to understand how transfer learning performance is affected by noise itself. The goals of this paper are (i) to establish a domain randomization baseline for a simple classification transfer learning task and (ii) to validate the RRAV testbed as a platform for further research in sim-to-real learning. We generate imagery from a simulation of NASA Ames Research Center and train a small convolutional neural network (ConvNet) to classify position relative to a centerline. Further models are trained with different types of noise progressively added to the data. The models are deployed aboard the on-site test vehicle to test real-world performance. In our experiments, we find that such naive domain randomization raises sim-to-real accuracy from 64% to 79%, while training directly on real data yields an 89% accuracy ceiling. These results suggest that the isolated mechanism of domain randomization can significantly improve generalization.

simulation↗

NASA NTRS1988

Use of satellite radiometric imagery data for improvement in the analysis of divergent wind in the tropics

A scheme is proposed to incorporate satellite radiometric imagery data into the specification of initial conditions for the National Meteorological Center (NMC) operational global prediction model in order to improve the analysis of the divergent wind field in the tropics. The basic assumptions are that outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data can provide 1) the division between convective (upward motion) and clear sky (downward motion) areas, and 2) the height of convection cells. The intensity of ascending motion in the convective areas is estimated based on OLR data. The intensity of descending motion is evaluated from the thermodynamic energy balance between radiative cooling and adiabatic warming, since the local time change of temperature is small in the tropics. Once the vertical motion field is determined, the horizontal divergence field can be calculated from the mass continuity equation. Then a divergent wind field is determined. The total wind is the sum of the new divergent wind and the rotational part, which is assumed to be unchanged. The proposed scheme is tested using the NMC analysis dataset of 21 January 1985 with satisfactory results.

Kasahara, Akira↗

NASA NTRS2006

Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic as opposed to the deterministic shorter range forecasts. Despite the known low level of confidence with respect to long range convective forecasts, these data are still useful to a DST routing algorithm. It is better to develop an aircraft route using the best information available than no information. The temporally coarse long range forecast data needs to be interpolated to be useful to a DST. A DST uses aircraft trajectory predictions that need to be evaluated for impacts by convective storms. Each time-step of a trajectory prediction n&s to be checked against weather data. For the case of coarse temporal data, there needs to be a method fill in weather data where there is none. Simply using the coarse weather data without any interpolation can result in DST routes that are impacted by regions of strong convection. Increasing the temporal resolution of these data can be achieved but result in a large dataset that may prove to be an operational challenge in transmission and loading by a DST. Currently, it takes about 7mins retrieve a 7mb RUC2 forecast file from NOAA at NASA-Ames Research Center. A prototype NCWF6 1 hour forecast is about 3mb in size. A Six hour NCWFG forecast with a 1hr forecast time-step will be about l8mb (6 x 3mb). A 6 hour NCWF6 forecast with a l5min forecast time-step will be about 7mb (24 x 3mb). Based on the time it takes to retrieve a 7mb RUC2 forecast, it will take approximately 70mins to retrieve a 6 hour NCWF forecast with 15min time steps. Until those issues are addressed, there is a need to develop an algorithm that interpolates between these temporally coarse long range forecasts. This paper describes a method of how to use low temporal resolution probabilistic weather forecasts in a DST. The beginning of this paper is a description of some convective weather forecast and observation products followed by an example of how weather data are used by a DST. The subsequent sections will describe probabilistic forecasts followed by a descrtion of a method to use low temporal resolution probabilistic weather forecasts by providing a relevance value to these data outside of their valid times.

Chan, William N.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

MERRA↗

NASA NTRS2023

Global Radiative Flux Profile Dataset: Revised and Extended

The third generation of the radiative flux profile data product, called ISCCP-FH, is described. The revisions over the previous generation (called ISCCP-FD) include improvements in the radiative model representation of gaseous and aerosol effects, as well as a refined statistical model of cloud vertical layer variations with cloud types, and increased spatial resolution. The new product benefits from the changes in the new H-version of the ISCCP cloud products (called ISCCP-H): higher spatial resolution, revised radiance calibration and treatment of ice clouds, treatment of aerosol effects, and revision of all the ancillary atmosphere and surface property products. The ISCCP-FH product is evaluated against more direct measurements from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System and the Baseline Surface Radiation Network products, showing some small, overall reductions in average flux uncertainties; but the main results are similar to ISCCP-FD: the ISCCP-FH uncertainties remain ≲10 Wm −2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and ≲15 Wm −2 at surface for monthly, regional averages. The long-term variations of TOA, surface and in-atmosphere net fluxes are documented and the possible transient cloud feedback implications of a long-term change of clouds are investigated. The cloud and flux variations from 1998 to 2012 suggest a positive cloud-radiative feedback on the oceanic circulation and a negative feedback on the atmospheric circulation. This example demonstrates that the ISCCP-FH product can provide useful diagnostic information about weather-to-interannual scale variations of radiation induced by changes in cloudiness as well as atmospheric and surface properties.

ISCCP-FH↗

NASA NTRS2014

Astronaut Bone Medical Standards Derived from Finite Element (FE) Models of QCT Scans from Population Studies

This work was accomplished in support of the Finite Element [FE] Strength Task Group, NASA Johnson Space Center [JSC], Houston, TX. This group was charged with the task of developing rules for using finite-element [FE] bone-strength measures to construct operating bands for bone health that are relevant to astronauts following exposure to spaceflight. FE modeling is a computational tool used by engineers to estimate the failure loads of complex structures. Recently, some engineers have used this tool to characterize the failure loads of the hip in population studies that also monitored fracture outcomes. A Directed Research Task was authorized in July, 2012 to investigate FE data from these population studies to derive these proposed standards of bone health as a function of age and gender. The proposed standards make use of an FE-based index that integrates multiple contributors to bone strength, an expanded evaluation that is critical after an astronaut is exposed to spaceflight. The current index of bone health used by NASA is the measurement of areal BMD. There was a concern voiced by a research and clinical advisory panel that the sole use of areal BMD would be insufficient to fully evaluate the effects of spaceflight on the hip. Hence, NASA may not have a full understanding of fracture risk, both during and after a mission, and may be poorly estimating in-flight countermeasure efficacy. The FE Strength Task Group - composed of principal investigators of the aforementioned population studies and of FE modelers -donated some of its population QCT data to estimate of hip bone strength by FE modeling for this specific purpose. Consequently, Human Health Countermeasures [HHC] has compiled a dataset of FE hip strengths, generated by a single FE modeling approach, from human subjects (approx.1060) with ages covering the age range of the astronauts. The dataset has been analyzed to generate a set of FE strength cutoffs for the following scenarios: a) Qualify an applicant for astronaut candidacy, b) Qualify an astronaut for a long-duration (LD) mission, c) Qualify a veteran LD astronaut for a second LD mission, and d) Establish a non-permissible, minimum hip strength following a given mission architecture. This abstract will present the FE-based standards accepted by the FE Strength Task Group for its recommendation to HHC in January 2015.

Sibonga, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Evaluation of Improved Pushback Forecasts Derived from Airline Ground Operations Data

Accurate and timely predictions of airline pushbacks can potentially lead to improved performance of automated decision-support tools for airport surface traffic, thus reducing the variability and average duration of costly airline delays. One factor which affects the realization of these benefits is the level of uncertainty inherent in the turn processes. To characterize this inherent uncertainty, three techniques are developed for predicting time-to-go until pushback as a function of available ground-time; elapsed ground-time; and the status (not-started/in-progress/completed) of individual turn processes (cleaning, fueling, etc.). These techniques are tested against a large and detailed dataset covering approximately l0(exp 4) real-world turn operations obtained through collaboration with Deutsche Lufthansa AG. Even after the dataset is filtered to obtain a sample of turn operations with minimal uncertainty, the standard deviation of forecast error for all three techniques is lower-bounded away from zero, indicating that turn operations have a significant stochastic component. This lower-bound result shows that decision-support tools must be designed to incorporate robust mechanisms for coping with pushback demand stochasticity, rather than treating the pushback demand process as a known deterministic input.

Carr, Francis↗