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At least 523 records · Page 29

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NASA NTRS2009

AIRS Impact on the Analysis and Forecast Track of Tropical Cyclone Nargis in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecasting System

Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, possibly due to poorer coverage.

Reale, O.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Homogeneity of a Global Multisatellite Soil Moisture Climate Data Record

Climate Data Records (CDR) that blend multiple satellite products are invaluable for climate studies, trend analysis and risk assessments. Knowledge of any inhomogeneities in the CDR is therefore critical for making correct inferences. This work proposes a methodology to identify the spatiotemporal extent of the inhomogeneities in a 36-year, global multisatellite soil moisture CDR as the result of changing observing systems. Inhomogeneities are detected at up to 24 percent of the tested pixels with spatial extent varying with satellite changeover times. Nevertheless, the contiguous periods without inhomogeneities at changeover times are generally longer than 10 years. Although the inhomogeneities have measurable impact on the derived trends, these trends are similar to those observed in ground data and land surface reanalysis, with an average error less than 0.003 cubic meters per cubic meter per year. These results strengthen the basis of using the product for long-term studies and demonstrate the necessity of homogeneity testing of multisatellite CDRs in general.

CDR↗

NASA NTRS2023

Satellite characterization of global stratospheric sulfate aerosols released by Tonga volcano

Large volcanic eruptions create an enhanced layer of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere. These sulfuric acid droplets persist for many months, altering the climate and stratospheric chemistry. Sulfate aerosols scatter sunlight back to space, cooling the surface of the Earth and absorb outgoing thermal radiation, heating the stratosphere. The calculation of the climate impact of sulfate aerosols depends on their physical properties such as droplet size and chemical composition. These properties are not well known, and this uncertainty contributes to the errors in climate model predictions. Here we derive the first empirical formula that predicts the composition of stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions from the air temperature and water vapor pressure. Measurements of atmospheric infrared transmittance of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai sulfate aerosol plume by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite were analyzed to determine composition (weight percent of sulfuric acid) and median particle radius. These data are supplemented by measurements of the Raikoke and Nabro eruptions. Our analysis allows the properties of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere to be predicted reliably in atmospheric models.

P Bernath↗

DOE OSTI2024

Artificial ground reflector size and position effects on energy yield and economics of single‐axis‐tracked bifacial photovoltaics

Abstract Artificial ground reflectors improve bifacial energy yield by increasing both front and rear‐incident irradiance. Studies have demonstrated an increase in energy yield due to the addition of artificial reflectors; however, they have not addressed the effect of varying reflector dimensions and placement on system performance and the impact of these parameters on the reflectors' financial viability. We studied the effect of high albedo (70% reflective) artificial reflectors on single‐axis‐tracked bifacial photovoltaic systems through ray‐trace modeling and field measurements. In the field, we tested a range of reflector configurations by varying reflector size and placement and demonstrated that reflectors increased daily energy yield up to 6.2% relative to natural albedo for PERC modules. To confirm the accuracy of our model, we compared modeled and measured power and found a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.4% on an hourly basis. We modeled a typical meteorological year in Golden, Colorado, to demonstrate the effects of artificial reflectors under a wide range of operating conditions. Seventy percent reflective material can increase total incident irradiance by 1.9%–8.6% and total energy yield by 0.9%–4.5% annually after clipping is considered with a DC–AC ratio of 1.2. Clipping has a significant effect on reflector impact and must be included when assessing reflector viability because it reduces reflector energy gain. We calculated a maximum viable cost for these improvements of up to $2.50–4.60/m 2 , including both material and installation, in Golden. We expanded our analysis to cover a latitude range of 32–48°N and demonstrated that higher‐latitude installations with lower energy yield and higher diffuse irradiance content can support higher reflector costs. In both modeling and field tests, and for all locations, the ideal placement of the reflectors was found to be directly underneath the module due to the optimized rear irradiance increase.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: EnKF System Design and Preliminary Assessment

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model using an ensemble Kalman filter. The benefit of UAS observations was assessed for a terrain-driven (drainage and upvalley) flow event that occurred within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV) using independent observations. The analysis and prediction of the strength, depth, and horizontal extent of drainage flow from the Saguache Canyon and the subsequent transition to upvalley and up-canyon flow were improved relative to that obtained both without data assimilation (benchmark) and when only surface observations were assimilated. Assimilation of UAS observations greatly improved the analyses of vertical variations in temperature, relative humidity, and winds at multiple locations in the northern portion of the SLV, with reductions in both bias and the root-mean-square error of roughly 40% for each variable relative to the benchmark run. Despite these noted improvements, some biases remain that were tied to measurement error and/or the impact of the boundary layer parameterization on vertically spreading the observations, both of which require further exploration. The results presented here highlight how observations obtained with a fleet of profiling UAS improve limited-area, high-resolution analyses and short-term forecasts in complex terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Impacts of Grain-scale Heterogeneity on Mechanical Response

Driven by the exceedingly high computational demands of simulating mechanical response in complex engineered systems with finely resolved finite element models, there is a critical need to optimally reduce the fidelity of such simulations. The minimum required fidelity is constrained by error tolerances on the simulation results, but error bounds are often impossible to obtain a priori. One such source of error is the variability of material properties within a body due to spatially non-uniform processing conditions and inherent stochasticity in material microstructure. This study seeks to quantify the effects of microstructural heterogeneity on component- and system-scale performance to aid in the choice of an appropriate material model and spatial resolution for finite element analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Glass Irradiation on Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy Data Analysis

Increased absorption of optical materials arising from exposure to ionizing radiation must be accounted for to accurately analyze laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) data retrieved from high-radiation environments. We evaluate this effect on two examples that mimic the diagnostics placed within novel nuclear reactor designs. The analysis is performed on LIBS data measured with 1% Xe gas in an ambient He environment and 1% Eu in a molten LiCl-KCl matrix, along with the measured optical absorption from the gamma- and neutron-irradiated low-OH fused silica and sapphire glasses. Significant changes in the number of laser shots required to reach a 3σ detection level are observed for the Eu data, increasing by two orders of magnitude after exposure to a 1.7 × 1017 n/cm2 neutron fluence. For all cases examined, the spectral dependence of absorption results in the introduction of systematic errors. Moreover, if lines from different spectral regions are used to create Boltzmann plots, this attenuation leads to statistically significant changes in the temperatures calculated from the Xe II lines and Eu II lines, lowering them from 8000 ± 610 K to 6900 ± 810 K and from 15,800 ± 400 K to 7200 ± 800 K, respectively, for exposure to the 1.7 × 1017 n/cm2 fluence. The temperature range required for a 95% confidence interval for the calculated temperature is also broadened. In the case of measuring the Xe spectrum, these effects may be mitigated using only the longer-wavelength spectral region, where radiation attenuation is relatively small, or through analysis using the iterative Saha–Boltzmann method.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1995

A Neural Network/Acoustic Emission Analysis of Impact Damaged Graphite/Epoxy Pressure Vessels

Acoustic emission (AE) signal analysis has been used to measure the effects of impact damage on burst pressure in 5.75 inch diameter, inert propellant filled, filament wound pressure vessels. The AE data were collected from fifteen graphite/epoxy pressure vessels featuring five damage states and three resin systems. A burst pressure prediction model was developed by correlating the AE amplitude (frequency) distribution, generated during the first pressure ramp to 800 psig (approximately 25% of the average expected burst pressure for an undamaged vessel) to known burst pressures using a four layered back propagation neural network. The neural network, trained on three vessels from each resin system, was able to predict burst pressures with a worst case error of 5.7% for the entire fifteen bottle set.

Walker, James L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Three Decades of Precision Orbit Determination Progress, Achievements, Future Challenges and its Vital Contribution to Oceanography and Climate Research

Although satellite altimetry has been around for thirty years, the last fifteen beginning with the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) have yielded an abundance of significant results including: monitoring of ENS0 events, detection of internal tides, determination of accurate global tides, unambiguous delineation of Rossby waves and their propagation characteristics, accurate determination of geostrophic currents, and a multi-decadal time series of mean sea level trend and dynamic ocean topography variability. While the high level of accuracy being achieved is a result of both instrument maturity and the quality of models and correction algorithms applied to the data, improving the quality of the Climate Data Records produced from altimetry is highly dependent on concurrent progress being made in fields such as orbit determination. The precision orbits form the reference frame from which the radar altimeter observations are made. Therefore, the accuracy of the altimetric mapping is limited to a great extent by the accuracy to which a satellite orbit can be computed. The TP mission represents the first time that the radial component of an altimeter orbit was routinely computed with an accuracy of 2-cm. Recently it has been demonstrated that it is possible to compute the radial component of Jason orbits with an accuracy of better than 1-cm. Additionally, still further improvements in TP orbits are being achieved with new techniques and algorithms largely developed from combined Jason and TP data analysis. While these recent POD achievements are impressive, the new accuracies are now revealing subtle systematic orbit error that manifest as both intra and inter annual ocean topography errors. Additionally the construction of inter-decadal time series of climate data records requires the removal of systematic differences across multiple missions. Current and future efforts must focus on the understanding and reduction of these errors in order to generate a complete and consistent time series of improved orbits across multiple missions and decades required for the most stringent climate-related research. This presentation discusses the POD progress and achievements made over nearly three decades, and presents the future challenges, goals and their impact on altimetric derived ocean sciences.

Luthcke, Scott↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SAGE III/ISS v5.3 Level 2 Data Product Changes and Improvements

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) is an occultation instrument that acquires measurements of aerosols and gases within the Earth’s stratosphere and upper troposphere. SAGE III/ISS provides level 2 solar species products for aerosol extinction (9 channels), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and water vapor (H2O). The level 2 products currently provide three O3 profiles based on differing retrievals. The first O3 profile is based on measurements at short wavelengths within the Hartley-Huggins band (MesO3), the second O3 profile is based on measurements made at visible wavelengths within the Chappius band (MLR O3), and the final profile is found using a more SAGE II like approach (AO3). The SAGE III/ISS also provides level 2 lunar species products for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitrogen trioxide (NO3). Version 5.3 of the SAGE III/ISS retrieval algorithm introduces improvements that affect the level 2 data products. The largest change to the solar algorithm is the implementation of disturbance monitoring package (DMP) corrections to improve pointing accuracy. The DMP is comprised of a miniature inertial measurement unit that measures rotation in inertial space using ring laser gyroscopes oriented about three orthogonal axes which can be used to correct pointing errors caused by mechanical disturbances. A major change common to solar and lunar algorithms is meteorological input from the coarser 42 level Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) model data to the 72 level MERRA-2 model data. The final major change involves improving the automated quality assurance (QA) algorithm to recover events that were withheld from the public release because differences between the AO3 and MLR O3 for some events after the eruption of Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai. Other changes for v5.3 include minor bug fixes as well as restoration of some data quality flags that were removed in v5.21. This presentation presents the impacts of these changes as well as overall observations of interest from v5.3 level 2 data products.

Carter Hulsey↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SAGE III/ISS v5.3 Level 2 Data Product Changes and Improvements

Carter Hulsey↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated Fire Detection for Industrial Settings with Pretrained Convolutional Networks

Early fire detection in industrial environments is critical to preventing equipment damage, personal injury, and operational disruptions. Traditional smoke detectors, while effective, often experience delays due to the time required for smoke to reach sensors, allowing fires to spread. Manual fire watch operations and human surveillance of camera feeds are resource-intensive and prone to human error. To address these challenges, this paper explores the application of convolutional neural networks for automated fire detection, specifically in industrial settings. By leveraging 11 different pre-trained machine vision models from TensorFlow and enhancing them with transfer learning on a custom-built industrial fire dataset, we optimized fire detection performance. Here, we analyzed each machine vision model architecture in terms of its depth, width, and input image resolution, considering both resource requirements and detection accuracy. We further explored the option of combining multiple models into an ensemble classifier to evaluate whether the performance improvements could justify the much greater computational complexity and other practical impacts. A cost-benefit analysis is presented to evaluate the trade-offs between performance and computational expense. Our findings identify that EfficientNetV2L, specifically tailored for industrial applications, provides the optimal balance between costs involved in training and using the model versus the overall fire detection performance. Additionally, we present a qualitative analysis of model performance using the technique of gradient-based class activation mapping to provide explainability by visualizing model decisions.

artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRS2020

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction system is being readied for a major upgrade. An important factor in successful extended range forecasting is the definition of the ensemble. Our overall strategy is to run a relatively large ensemble of about 40 members up to 3 months (focusing on the sub-seasonal forecast problem), after which we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with about 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of our testing of various ways to generate the initial perturbations and the validation of a stratified sampling approach for choosing the members of the smaller ensemble. For the initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states (chosen randomly from the corresponding season) separated by 1-10 days. We consider perturbing separately the atmosphere and the ocean, or both. By varying the separation times between the analysis states, we are able to produce perturbations that resemble well-known modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread with, however, considerable differences in the timing of the impacts on spread for the atmospheric and oceanic perturbations.Our initial (larger) ensemble size was determined so as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes (namely the NAO, PNA and AO). Since it is not feasible for us to run with the larger ensemble beyond about 3 months, we employ a stratified sampling procedure that identifies the emerging directions of error growth to subset the ensemble. By comparing the results from the stratified ensemble with that of the randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we find that the former provides substantially better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Signal Decomposition Analysis and Anomaly Detection in Photovoltaic Systems

With the rapid expansion of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants, it is paramount for solar stakeholders to understand the reliability and efficiency of their plants to inform maintenance decisions, increase production, and understand the design factors that impact performance. Diagnosing underperformance in PV plants is challenging due to the relatively few monitoring points with respect to the large geographic footprint of the plant. This work introduces a cutting-edge method that transforms the analysis and management of key factors influencing PV plant performance, including performance loss rate (PLR), recoverable soiling, and major system changes. Identifying these factors is critical for deriving actionable insights. Leveraging advanced analytical techniques such as wavelet transformation, robust regression, and extreme point analysis, this approach provides a nuanced understanding of these factors. This method has been tested across two synthetic datasets and one real dataset, consistently surpassing existing benchmarks by achieving a lower median mean absolute error and reduced error variability across all comparable components.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Differential, integral, and momentum-transfer cross sections for elastic electron scattering by neon - 5 to 100 eV

Relative elastic-scattering differential cross sections were measured in the 5-100-eV impact energy and 10-145 deg angular ranges. Normalization of these cross sections was achieved by utilizing accurate total electron-scattering cross sections. A phase-shift analysis of the angular distributions in terms of real phase shifts has been carried out. From the differential cross sections, momentum-transfer cross sections were obtained and the values of the critical energy and angle were established (associated with the lowest value of the differential cross section) as 62.5 + or - 2.5 eV and 101.7 deg + or - 1.5 deg, respectively. The present phase shifts, the critical parameters, and differential, integral, and momentum-transfer cross sections are compared to previous experimental and theoretical results. The error associated with the present data is about 10 percent.

NASA NTRS2000

Experimental Results of the Impact of an Ion Thruster Plasma on Microwave Propagation

Electric thrusters are being considered for a variety of space missions because of the significant propellant savings that result from the use of high performance, electric propulsion technologies. Propellant mass savings reduces spacecraft launch requirements and increases mission lifetime and payload. The impact of electric thruster plasma plumes on microwave signal propagation however is an important spacecraft integration concern. Arcjets were the first electric thrusters to be considered for operational missions. Ling, et al. studied the effect of arcjet plumes on propagation. Arcjets produce a lightly ionized plume and Ling's analysis predicted that the plume would have a negligible effect on communication. Plumes from the higher performance ion thrusters being developed exhibit higher ionization levels, plasma temperatures and particle velocities than arcjets. Therefore, there was a need to assess the impact due to these plumes. To address this need, the authors designed and performed a series of experiments to examine propagation effects of plumes. The challenge with these experiments was that they had to be performed in the operational environment of the thruster. Therefore, the experiments were conducted inside a metal chamber which could be depressurized to simulate a near vacuum condition of space. The metal chamber presents a potential large source of error to the propagation measurements due to the corruption of the desired data by multiple wall reflections within the chamber. This chamber effect was minimized by employing a pulsed-continuous wave transmitter and receiver system. This system based on an HP8510 Network Analyzer, uses external hardware time gating to eliminate the clutter of the spurious reflections. Additionally, high gain antennas were used in the measurements to ensure that minimal amounts of energy were transmitted/received in undesirable directions. The measurements took place in Vacuum Facility 5 of the Electric Propulsion Laboratory at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This facility utilizes a cylindrical, stainless steel, vacuum chamber, which is 18.3 m long and 4.6 m in diameter. For the tests being described here a 30 cm diameter, xenon ion thruster was used. The thruster provided between 500 W and 2.3 kW of operating power. The thruster was mounted on a stand along the axis of the chamber near one of its ends and could be moved axially.

Zaman, Afroz J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

GPS-Based Precision Orbit Determination for a New Era of Altimeter Satellites: Jason-1 and ICESat

Accurate positioning of the satellite center of mass is necessary in meeting an altimeter mission's science goals. The fundamental science observation is an altimetric derived topographic height. Errors in positioning the satellite's center of mass directly impact this fundamental observation. Therefore, orbit error is a critical Component in the error budget of altimeter satellites. With the launch of the Jason-1 radar altimeter (Dec. 2001) and the ICESat laser altimeter (Jan. 2003) a new era of satellite altimetry has begun. Both missions pose several challenges for precision orbit determination (POD). The Jason-1 radial orbit accuracy goal is 1 cm, while ICESat (600 km) at a much lower altitude than Jason-1 (1300 km), has a radial orbit accuracy requirement of less than 5 cm. Fortunately, Jason-1 and ICESat POD can rely on near continuous tracking data from the dual frequency codeless BlackJack GPS receiver and Satellite Laser Ranging. Analysis of current GPS-based solution performance indicates the l-cm radial orbit accuracy goal is being met for Jason-1, while radial orbit accuracy for ICESat is well below the 54x1 mission requirement. A brief overview of the GPS precision orbit determination methodology and results for both Jason-1 and ICESat are presented.

Scott B Luthcke↗

NASA NTRS1995

Comment on 'The Global Resurfacing of Venus' by R. G. Strom, G.G. Schaber, and D.D. Dawson

The distribution of impact craters on Venus has been the subject of a great deal of analysis since the return of Magellan data. Phillips el al. (1992) performed Monte Carlo two-dimensional (2-D) modeling of the areal distribution of craters, and the results of that exercise allowed a restricted, but still quite large, range of possible planetary resurfacing histories, including the possibility that the crater, were emplaced on a geologically inactive planet. However, the nonrandom distribution of embayed and deformed craters (Phillips el al., 1992), the hypsometric distribution of craters (Herrick and Phillips, 1994), the varied degradation states of craters (Izenberg et al., 1994), their nonrandom distribution with different geologic terrain types (Namiki and Solomon, 1994; Price et al, 1994), and three-dimensional resurfacing modeling (Bullock el al., 1993) all seem to argue against that particular possibility. In contrast, Strom el al. (1994) have collected a refined and more comprehensive data set of impact features, and they input these data into more sophisticated 2-D Monte Carlo modeling and statistical analyses of the areal distribution of craters, the hypsometric distribution of craters, and the number of embayed craters. They concluded that 'Venus experienced a global resurfacing event about 300 m.y. ago followed by a dramatic reduction of volcanism and tectonism. This global resurfacing event ended abruptly (less than 10 m.y.). The present crater population has accumulated since then and remains largely intact . . . only about 4%-6% of the planet has been volcanically resurfaced since the global event . . .' If these conclusions are well-founded, this work certainly represents a significant advancement in restricting tile number of plausible resurfacing histories for the planet. If Strom et al. (1994) are correct, it would also mean that all of the other aforementioned works are in error to various degrees, or at least represent overzealous interpretation of the data. However, we have identified apparent flaws in the observations, modeling, and interpretations presented by Strom el al. (1994) that lead us to question whether their conclusions are warranted. We limit our comments to three areas of their analysis: (1) observations pertaining to the number and area of disrupted and pristine craters and crater-related features, (2) modeling of the areal and elevation distribution of craters, and (3) interpretations of resurfacing models.

Herrick, Robert R.↗