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At least 523 records · Page 29

Robust deep learning framework for constitutive relations modeling

Modeling the full-range deformation behaviors of materials under complex loading and materials conditions is a significant challenge for constitutive relations (CRs) modeling. Here, we propose a general encoder-decoder deep learning framework that can model high-dimensional stress-strain data and complex loading histories with robustness and universal capability. The framework employs an encoder to project high-dimensional input information (e.g., loading history, loading conditions, and materials information) to a lower-dimensional hidden space and a decoder to map the hidden representation to the stress of interest. We evaluated various encoder architectures, including gated recurrent unit (GRU), GRU with attention, temporal convolutional network (TCN), and the Transformer encoder, on two complex stress-strain datasets that were designed to include a wide range of complex loading histories and loading conditions. All architectures achieved excellent test results with an root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 1 MPa. Additionally, we analyzed the capability of the different architectures to make predictions on out-of-domain applications, with an uncertainty estimation based on deep ensembles. The proposed approach provides a robust alternative to empirical/semi-empirical models for CRs modeling, offering the potential for more accurate and efficient materials design and optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dilute Alloys Based on Au, Ag, or Cu for Efficient Catalysis: From Synthesis to Active Sites

The development of new catalyst materials for energy-efficient chemical synthesis is critical as over 80% of industrial processes rely on catalysts, with many of the most energy-intensive processes specifically using heterogeneous catalysis. Catalytic performance is a complex interplay of phenomena involving temperature, pressure, gas composition, surface composition and structure over multiple length and time scales. In response to this complexity, the integrated approach to heterogeneous dilute-alloy catalysis reviewed here brings together materials synthesis, mechanistic surface chemistry, reaction kinetics, in-situ and operando characterization, and theoretical calculations in a coordinated effort to develop design principles to predict and improve catalytic selectivity. Dilute alloy catalysts—in which isolated atoms or small ensembles of the minority metal on the host metal lead to enhanced reactivity while retaining selectivity—are particularly promising as selective catalysts. Several dilute alloy materials using Au, Ag and Cu as the majority host element, including more recently introduced support-free nanoporous metals and oxide-supported nanoparticle "raspberry colloid templated (RCT)" materials, are reviewed for selective oxidation and hydrogenation reactions. Progress in understanding how such dilute alloy catalysts can be used to enhance selectivity of key synthetic reactions is reviewed, including quantitative scaling from model studies to catalytic conditions. The dynamic evolution of catalyst structure and composition studied in surface science and catalytic conditions and their relationship to catalytic function are also discussed, followed by advanced characterization and theoretical modeling that have been developed to determine the distribution of minority metal atoms at or near the surface. Furthermore, the integrated approach demonstrates the success of bridging the divide between fundamental knowledge and design of catalytic processes in complex catalytic systems, which can accelerate the development of new and efficient catalytic processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes

Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.

Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗

APACE: AlphaFold2 and advanced computing as a service for accelerated discovery in biophysics

The prediction of protein 3D structure from amino acid sequence is a computational grand challenge in biophysics and plays a key role in robust protein structure prediction algorithms, from drug discovery to genome interpretation. The advent of AI models, such as AlphaFold, is revolutionizing applications that depend on robust protein structure prediction algorithms. To maximize the impact, and ease the usability, of these AI tools we introduce APACE, AlphaFold2 and advanced computing as a service, a computational framework that effectively handles this AI model and its TB-size database to conduct accelerated protein structure prediction analyses in modern supercomputing environments. We deployed APACE in the Delta and Polaris supercomputers and quantified its performance for accurate protein structure predictions using four exemplar proteins: 6AWO, 6OAN, 7MEZ, and 6D6U. Using up to 300 ensembles, distributed across 200 NVIDIA A100 GPUs, we found that APACE is up to two orders of magnitude faster than off-the-self AlphaFold2 implementations, reducing time-to-solution from weeks to minutes. This computational approach may be readily linked with robotics laboratories to automate and accelerate scientific discovery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spectral Data Fusion From Handheld Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) Analyzers for Improved Detection of Cerium in a Simulated Dispersal Accident

Here, this work implements a mid-level data fusion methodology on spectral data from handheld X-ray fluorescence and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy analyzers to quantify plutonium surrogate (CeO 2 ) contamination in soil samples for the first time. Spectral data from each analyzer were used independently to train supervised machine learning regressions to predict Ce concentration. Fused features from both data sets were then used to train the same models, comparing prediction performance by evaluating model precision and sensitivity. Fusing principal component scores from the two sensors yielded an order of magnitude improvement in precision and sensitivity of predictions made with an artificial neural network, compared to predictions made by models trained on independent sensor data. As a result, a boosted ensemble trained on the fused spectral features yielded an ideal predictor with root-mean-squared error on the order of 10 –6 and calculated limit of detection order 10 –5 wt %.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes

Mosses are ubiquitous in northern terrestrial ecosystems, and play an important role in regional carbon, water and energy cycling. Current global land surface models that do not consider mosses may bias the quantification of regional carbon dynamics. Here we incorporate mosses as a new plant functional type into the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM 5.0), to develop a new model (TEM_Moss). The new model explicitly quantifies the interactions between vascular plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients. Compared to the estimates using TEM 5.0, the new model estimates that the regional terrestrial soils currently store 132.7 Pg more C and will store 157.5 and 179.1 Pg more C under the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. Ensemble regional simulations forced with different parameters for the 21st century with TEM_Moss predict that the region will accumulate 161.1±142.1 Pg C under the RCP2.6 scenario and 186.7±166.1 Pg C under the RCP8.5 scenario over the century. Our study highlights the necessity of coupling moss into Earth system models to adequately quantify terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Alternative Approaches to Land Initialization for Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

The seasonal prediction system of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to generate ensembles of summer forecasts utilizing realistic soil moisture initialization. To derive the realistic land states, we drive offline the system's land model with realistic meteorological forcing over the period 1979-1993 (in cooperation with the Global Land Data Assimilation System project at GSFC) and then extract the state variables' values on the chosen forecast start dates. A parallel series of forecast ensembles is performed with a random (though climatologically consistent) set of land initial conditions; by comparing the two sets of ensembles, we can isolate the impact of land initialization on forecast skill from that of the imposed SSTs. The base initialization experiment is supplemented with several forecast ensembles that use alternative initialization techniques. One ensemble addresses the impact of minimizing climate drift in the system through the scaling of the initial conditions, and another is designed to isolate the importance of the precipitation signal from that of all other signals in the antecedent offline forcing. A third ensemble includes a more realistic initialization of the atmosphere along with the land initialization. The impact of each variation on forecast skill is quantified.

Koster, Randal↗

Efficient Distance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

Sensitivity analysis in terrestrial ecosystem modeling is important for understanding controlling processes, guiding model development, and targeting new observations to reduce parameter and prediction uncertainty. Complex and computationally expensive terrestrial ecosystem models (TEM) limit the number of ensemble simulations, requiring sophisticated and efficient methods to analyze sensitivities of multiple model responses to different types of parameter uncertainties. In this study, we propose a distance-based global sensitivity analysis (DGSA) method. DGSA first classifies model response samples into a small set of discrete classes and then calculates the distance between parameter frequency distributions in different classes to measure the parameter sensitivity. The principle is that, if the parameter distribution is the same in each class, then the model response is insensitive to the parameter, while a large difference in the distributions indicates the parameter is influential to the response. Built on this idea, DGSA can be applied to analyze sensitivity of a single and a group of responses to different kinds of parameter uncertainties including continuous, discrete and even stochastic. Besides the main-effect sensitivity from a single parameter, DGSA can also quantify the sensitivity from parameter interactions. Additionally, DGSA is computationally efficient which can use a small number of model evaluations to obtain an accurate and statistically significant result. We applied DGSA to two TEMs, one having eight parameters and three kinds of model responses, and the other having 47 parameters and a long-period response. We demonstrated that DGSA can be used for sensitivity problems with multiple responses and high-dimensional parameters efficiently.

Lu, Dan↗

A time-accurate finite volume method valid at all flow velocities

A finite volume method to solve the Navier-Stokes equations at all flow velocities (e.g., incompressible, subsonic, transonic, supersonic and hypersonic flows) is presented. The numerical method is based on a finite volume method that incorporates a pressure-staggered mesh and an incremental pressure equation for the conservation of mass. Comparison of three generally accepted time-advancing schemes, i.e., Simplified Marker-and-Cell (SMAC), Pressure-Implicit-Splitting of Operators (PISO), and Iterative-Time-Advancing (ITA) scheme, are made by solving a lid-driven polar cavity flow and self-sustained oscillatory flows over circular and square cylinders. Calculated results show that the ITA is the most stable numerically and yields the most accurate results. The SMAC is the most efficient computationally and is as stable as the ITA. It is shown that the PISO is the most weakly convergent and it exhibits an undesirable strong dependence on the time-step size. The degenerated numerical results obtained using the PISO are attributed to its second corrector step that cause the numerical results to deviate further from a divergence free velocity field. The accurate numerical results obtained using the ITA is attributed to its capability to resolve the nonlinearity of the Navier-Stokes equations. The present numerical method that incorporates the ITA is used to solve an unsteady transitional flow over an oscillating airfoil and a chemically reacting flow of hydrogen in a vitiated supersonic airstream. The turbulence fields in these flow cases are described using multiple-time-scale turbulence equations. For the unsteady transitional over an oscillating airfoil, the fluid flow is described using ensemble-averaged Navier-Stokes equations defined on the Lagrangian-Eulerian coordinates. It is shown that the numerical method successfully predicts the large dynamic stall vortex (DSV) and the trailing edge vortex (TEV) that are periodically generated by the oscillating airfoil. The calculated streaklines are in very good comparison with the experimentally obtained smoke picture. The calculated turbulent viscosity contours show that the transition from laminar to turbulent state and the relaminarization occur widely in space as well as in time. The ensemble-averaged velocity profiles are also in good agreement with the measured data and the good comparison indicates that the numerical method as well as the multipletime-scale turbulence equations successfully predict the unsteady transitional turbulence field. The chemical reactions for the hydrogen in the vitiated supersonic airstream are described using 9 chemical species and 48 reaction-steps. Consider that a fast chemistry can not be used to describe the fine details (such as the instability) of chemically reacting flows while a reduced chemical kinetics can not be used confidently due to the uncertainty contained in the reaction mechanisms. However, the use of a detailed finite rate chemistry may make it difficult to obtain a fully converged solution due to the coupling between the large number of flow, turbulence, and chemical equations. The numerical results obtained in the present study are in good agreement with the measured data. The good comparison is attributed to the numerical method that can yield strongly converged results for the reacting flow and to the use of the multiple-time-scale turbulence equations that can accurately describe the mixing of the fuel and the oxidant.

Kim, S.-W.↗

Projecting spatiotemporally explicit effects of climate change on stream temperature: A model comparison and implications for coldwater fishes

Conservation planners and resource managers seek information about how the availability and locations of cold-water habitats will change in the future and how these predictions vary among models. In this work, we used a physical process-based model to demonstrate the implications of climate change for streamflow and water temperature in two watersheds with distinctive flow regimes: the Snoqualmie watershed (WA) and Siletz watershed (OR), USA. Our model incorporated a downscaled ensemble of global climate model outputs and was calibrated with in situ and remotely sensed water temperatures. Furthermore, we compared predictions from our processed-based model to those from a publicly available and widely used statistical model. The process-based model projected greater changes in summer maximum water temperatures for the mixed-rain-snow Snoqualmie watershed than for the rain-dominated Siletz watershed as a result of the near-complete loss of winter snowpack and significant reduction in summer flow in the Snoqualmie watershed expected by the 2080s. Both models projected generally similar future spatial patterns of maximum water temperature in the two rivers, with cool reaches distributed farther upstream and fewer in number. However, the process-based model projected higher spatial heterogeneity in water temperature due to our spatially explicit simulation of streamflow and because we calibrated the model with spatially continuous remotely sensed water temperature data. We used stream temperature projections to assess the vulnerability of Pacific salmon and trout to changes in the spatial distribution of cold-water habitats during August by the 2080s. Results suggest that salmonids may have fewer summertime cold-water habitats in both watersheds. Projected stream warming may further limit particular species and life stages, especially in the Snoqualmie watershed. Our comparison of models highlights the importance of considering what might be gained by using a process-based model for evaluating and prioritizing management actions that mitigate climate impacts on cold-water habitats for stream fishes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flowfield dynamics in blunt fin-induced shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions

Fluctuating wall pressure measurements were made on centerline upstream of a blunt fin in a Much 5 turbulent boundary layer. By examining the ensemble average wall pressure distributions for different fixed shock foot positions, it was shown that local fluctuating wall pressure measurements are due to a distinct pressure distribution, P(i), which undergoes a stretching and flattening effect as its upstream boundary translates aperiodically between the upstream influence and separation lines. The locations of the maxima and minima in the centerline wall standard deviation distribution can be accurately predicted using this distribution, providing quantitative confirmation of the model. This model also explains the observed cross-correlations and ensemble average measurements within the interaction. Using the P(i) model, wall pressure signals from under the separated flow region were able to reproduce the position-time history of the separation shock foot. The negative time delay peak in the cross-correlation between the predicted and actual shock foot histories shows that the separated region fluctuations precede shock foot motion.

Brusniak, L.↗

Simultaneous Radar and Satellite Data Storm-Scale Assimilation Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter Approach for 24 May 2011

Assimilating high-resolution radar reflectivity and radial velocity into convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models has proven to be an important tool for improving forecast skill of convection. The use of satellite data for the application is much less well understood, only recently receiving significant attention. Since both radar and satellite data provide independent information, combing these two sources of data in a robust manner potentially represents the future of high-resolution data assimilation. This research combines Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 13 (GOES-13) cloud water path (CWP) retrievals with Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) reflectivity and radial velocity to examine the impacts of assimilating each for a severe weather event occurring in Oklahoma on 24 May 2011. Data are assimilated into a 3-km model using an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter approach with 36 members over a 2-h assimilation window between 1800 and 2000 UTC. Forecasts are then generated for 90 min at 5-min intervals starting at 1930 and 2000 UTC. Results show that both satellite and radar data are able to initiate convection, but that assimilating both spins up a storm much faster. Assimilating CWP also performs well at suppressing spurious precipitation and cloud cover in the model as well as capturing the anvil characteristics of developed storms. Radar data are most effective at resolving the 3D characteristics of the core convection. Assimilating both satellite and radar data generally resulted in the best model analysis and most skillful forecast for this event.

Jones, Thomas A.↗

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Flowfield dynamics in blunt fin-induced shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions

Fluctuating wall pressure measurements have been made on centerline upstream of a blunt fin in a Mach 5 turbulent boundary layer. By examining the ensemble averaged wall pressure distributions for different separation shock foot positions, it has been shown that local fluctuating wall pressure measurements are due to a distinct pressure distribution, Rho(sub i), which undergoes a stretching and flattening effect as its upstream boundary translates aperiodically between the upstream influence and separation lines. The locations of the maxima and minima in the wall pressure standard deviation can be accurately predicted using this distribution, providing quantitative confirmation of the model. This model also explains the observed cross-correlations and ensemble average measurements within the interaction. Using the Rho(sub i) model, wall pressure signals from under the separated flow region were used to reproduce the position-time history of the separation shock foot. Further, the negative time delay peak in the cross-correlation between the predicted and actual shock foot histories suggests that the separated region fluctuations precede shock foot motion. The unsteady behavior of the primary horseshoe vortex and its relation to the unsteady separation shock are described.

Dolling, David S.↗

Learning electric vehicle driver range anxiety with an initial state of charge-oriented gradient boosting approach

This manuscript focuses on the modeling of electric vehicle (EV) driver’s range anxiety, a fear that a vehicle does not have sufficient range, or state of charge (SOC) of the battery pack, to reach its destination and would strand its occupants. Despite numerous research studies on the modeling of charging behaviors, modeling efforts to understand at what battery percentages do EV drivers charge their vehicles, and what are the associated contributing factors, are rather limited. To this end, an ensemble learning model based on gradient boosting is developed. The model sequentially fits new predictors to new residuals of the previous prediction and, then, minimizes the loss when adding the latest prediction. A total of 18 features are defined and extracted from the multisource data, which cover information on driver, vehicles, stations, traffic conditions, as well as spatial-temporal context information of the charging events. The analyzed dataset includes 4.5-year’s charging event log data from 3,096 users and 468 public charging stations in Kansas City Missouri, and the macroscopic travel demand model maintained by the metropolitan planning organization. Here, the result shows the proposed model achieved a satisfactory result with a R square value of 0.54 and root mean square error of 0.14, both better than multiple linear regression model and random forest model. To reduce range anxiety, it is suggested that the priorities of deploying new charging facilities should be given to the areas with higher daily traffic prediction, with more conservative EV users or that are further from residential areas.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The Mira–Titan Universe – IV. High-precision power spectrum emulation

Modern cosmological surveys are delivering data sets characterized by unprecedented quality and statistical completeness; this trend is expected to continue in the future as new ground- and space-based surveys come online. In order to maximally extract cosmological information from these observations, matching theoretical predictions are needed. At low redshifts, the surveys probe the non-linear regime of structure formation where cosmological simulations are the primary means of obtaining the required information. The computational cost of sufficiently resolved large-volume simulations makes it prohibitive to run very large ensembles. Nevertheless, precision emulators built on a tractable number of high-quality simulations can be used to build very fast prediction schemes to enable a variety of cosmological inference studies. We have recently introduced the Mira–Titan Universe simulation suite designed to construct emulators for a range of cosmological probes. This gravity-only set of simulations covers the standard six cosmological parameters {ω m , ω b , σ 8 , $h, n_s, w_0$} and, in addition, includes massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy equation of state {ω ν , $w_a$}. In this paper, we present the final emulator for the matter power spectrum based on 111 cosmological simulations, each covering a (2.1 Gpc) 3 volume and evolving 3200 3 particles. In this work, an additional set of 1776 lower resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results for the power spectrum are used to cover scales straddling the linear to mildly non-linear regimes (maximum wavenumber $\textit{k}$ = 5 Mpc –1 ). The emulator provides predictions at the 2–3 percent level of accuracy over a wide range of cosmological parameters and is publicly released as part of this paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Influence of Local Water Vapor Analysis Uncertainty on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Hurricane Irma (2017) as a Testbed

Abstract Tropical cyclone formation is known to require abundant water vapor in the lower to middle troposphere within the incipient disturbance. In this study, we assess the impacts of local water vapor analysis uncertainty on the predictability of the formation of Hurricane Irma (2017). To this end, we reduce the magnitude of the incipient disturbance’s water vapor perturbations obtained from an ensemble-based data assimilation system that constrained moisture by assimilating all-sky infrared and microwave radiances. Five-day ensemble forecasts are initialized two days before genesis using each set of modified analysis perturbations. Growth of convective differences and intensity uncertainty are evaluated for each ensemble forecast. We observe that when initializing an ensemble forecast with only moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance, the resulting intensity uncertainty at every lead time exceeds half that of an ensemble containing initial perturbations to all variables throughout the domain. Although ensembles with different initial moisture uncertainty amplitudes reveal a similar pathway to genesis, uncertainty in genesis timing varies substantially across ensembles since moister members exhibit earlier spinup of the low-level vortex. These differences in genesis timing are traced back to the first 6–12 h of integration, when differences in the position and intensity of mesoscale convective systems across ensemble members develop more quickly with greater initial moisture uncertainty. In addition, the rapid growth of intensity uncertainty may be greatly modulated by the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatiotemporal water vapor observations for ingestion into data assimilation systems. Significance Statement Hurricanes form from clusters of thunderstorms that organize into a coherent system. One of the key ingredients for the formation process is an abundance of moisture. In this study, we test the sensitivity of hurricane formation to the initial moisture content in the vicinity of the cluster of thunderstorms that would become Hurricane Irma (2017). To do so, we initialize sets of forecasts each having a different variability of initial moisture content within the embryonic disturbance. Our results show that the predictability of hurricane formation is highly dependent on the uncertainty of the moisture content within the initial disturbance. Consequently, more high-quality observations of the moisture within the precursor disturbances to hurricanes are expected to improve forecasts of their formation.

Hartman, Christopher M.↗

Tropical Cyclones in the GEOS-S2S-2 Subseasonal Forecasts

This paper analyzes the climatology, prediction skill, and predictability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in NASA’s Global Earth Observing System Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecast system version 2. GEOS reasonably simulates the number and spatial distribution of TCs compared to observations except in the Atlantic where the model simulates too few TCs due to low genesis rates in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The environmental conditions, diagnosed through a genesis potential index, do not clearly explain model biases in the genesis rates, especially in the Atlantic. At the storm-scale, GEOS reforecasts replicate several key aspects of the thermodynamic and dynamic structure of observed TCs, such as a warm core and the secondary circulation. The model, however, fails to simulate an off-center eyewall when evaluating vertical velocity, precipitation and moisture. The analysis of prediction skill of TC genesis and occurrence shows that GEOS has comparable skill to other global models in WMO S2S archive and that its skill could be further improved by increasing the ensemble size. After calibration, GEOS forecasts are skillful in the Western North Pacific and Southern Indian Ocean up to 20 days in advance. A model-based predictability analysis demonstrates the importance of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a source of predictability of TC occurrence beyond the 14 day lead-time. Forecasts initialized under strong MJO conditions show evidence of predictability beyond week 3. However, due to model biases in the forecast distribution there are notable gaps between MJO-related prediction skill and predictability which require further study.

Jorge L. Garcia-Franco↗