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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29

A Finite-Time Ensemble Method for Mixed Layer Model Comparison

Here, this work evaluates the fidelity of various upper-ocean turbulence parameterizations subject to realistic monsoon forcing and presents a finite-time ensemble vector (EV) method to better manage the design and numerical principles of these parameterizations. The EV method emphasizes the dynamics of a turbulence closure multimodel ensemble and is applied to evaluate 10 different ocean surface boundary layer (OSBL) parameterizations within a single-column (SC) model against two boundary layer large-eddy simulations (LES). Both LES include realistic surface forcing, but one includes wind-driven shear turbulence only, while the other includes additional Stokes forcing through the wave-average equations that generate Langmuir turbulence. The finite-time EV framework focuses on what constitutes the local behavior of the mixed layer dynamical system and isolates the forcing and ocean state conditions where turbulence parameterizations most disagree. Identifying disagreement provides the potential to evaluate SC models comparatively against the LES. Observations collected during the 2018 monsoon onset in the Bay of Bengal provide a case study to evaluate models under realistic and variable forcing conditions. The case study results highlight two regimes where models disagree 1) during wind-driven deepening of the mixed layer and 2) under strong diurnal forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projecting Future Colorado River Basin Water and Hydropower Operations

Drought, variable renewable energy (VRE) resources (primarily wind and photovoltaic technologies), and power markets can all impact hydropower plant operations. We analyze how these three factors collectively may potentially change the future operation and economics of federal dams and hydropower plants located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Federal CRB energy and capacity resources, including 4,200 MW of hydropower capacity, are marketed by Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) and sold through long-term Firm Electric Service (FES) contracts to entities located in 15 western and central States that serve millions of electricity consumers. The parameters of FES contracts allow a wide range of scheduling flexibility for FES customers. The FES customers will adjust the timing of energy delivery according to the changing water, power market, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. We simulate and project water and hydropower operations with two models: 1) reservoir operation and 2) power system operation (production cost) with various temporal granularity. We consider two sets of grid scenarios (one representing today's infrastructure, and one representing higher VRE contributions in 2036) and two sets of water scenarios (drought and normal hydrology). We modeled scenarios to understand the power market-energy price levels and patterns, FES customer scheduling, hydropower economics, WAPA finances and hydropower operation for various hydrologic conditions, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. The detailed modeling framework includes: (1) creating ensembles of CRB hydrologic and hydropower futures, (2) selecting representative futures, (3) simulation of FES customer contracts, (4) simulating western U.S. power grid economic scheduling and dispatch under two VRE contribution levels, utilizing information from modeling steps (1)-(4), (5) assessment of reservoir water and hydropower operation, and (6) comparing scenario operations and economics. Our study team comprising WAPA, and an interdisciplinary team of national labs will gain insight into how WAPA can prepare for and adapt its practices in response to an evolving U.S. power grid.

Colorado River↗

Chaos on the hypercube

We analyze the spectral properties of a d-dimensional HyperCubic (HC) lattice model originally introduced by Parisi. The U(1) gauge links of this model give rise to a magnetic flux of constant magnitude φ but random orientation through the faces of the hypercube. The HC model, which also can be written as a model of 2d interacting Majorana fermions, has a spectral flow that is reminiscent of Maldacena-Qi (MQ) model, and its spectrum at φ = 0, actually coincides with the coupling term of the MQ model. As was already shown by Parisi, at leading order in 1/d, the spectral density of this model is given by the density function of the Q-Hermite polynomials, which is also the spectral density of the double-scaled Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model. Parisi demonstrated this by mapping the moments of the HC model to Q-weighted sums on chord diagrams. We point out that the subleading moments of the HC model can also be mapped to weighted sums on chord diagrams, in a manner that descends from the leading moments. The HC model has a magnetic inversion symmetry that depends on both the magnitude and the orientation of the magnetic flux through the faces of the hypercube. The spectrum for fixed quantum number of this symmetry exhibits a transition from regular spectra at φ = 0 to chaotic spectra with spectral statistics given by the Gaussian Unitary Ensembles (GUE) for larger values of φ. For small magnetic flux, the ground state is gapped and is close to a Thermofield Double (TFD) state.

1/N expansion↗

A Quantum-Based Approach to Predict Primary Radiation Damage in Polymeric Networks

Initial atomistic-level radiation damage in chemically reactive materials is thought to induce reaction cascades that can result in undesirable degradation of macroscale properties. Ensembles of quantum-based molecular dynamics (QMD) simulations can accurately predict these cascades, but extracting chemical insights from the many underlying trajectories is a labor-intensive process that can require substantial a priori intuition. We develop here a general and automated graph-based approach to extract all chemically distinct structures sampled in QMD simulations and apply our approach to predict primary radiation damage of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), the main constituent of silicones. A postprocessing protocol is developed to identify underlying polymer backbone structures as connected components in QMD trajectories. Furthermore, these backbones form a repository of radiation-damaged structures. A scheme for extracting and updating a library of isomorphically distinct structures is proposed to identify the spanning set and aid chemical interpretation of the repository. The analyses are applied to ensembles of cascade QMD simulations in which the four element types in PDMS are selectively excited in primary knock-on atom events. Our approach reveals a much higher degree of combinatorial complexity in this system than was inferred through radiolysis experiments. Probabilities are extracted for radiation-induced network changes including formation of branch points, carbon linkages, cycles, bond scissions, and carbon uptake into the Si–O siloxane backbone network. The general analysis framework presented here is readily extendable to modeling chemical degradation of other polymers and molecular materials and provides a basis for future quantum-informed multiscale modeling of radiation damage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Influence of Long-Range Forces on the Transition States and Dynamics of NaCl Ion-Pair Dissociation in Water

We study NaCl ion-pair dissociation in a dilute aqueous solution using computer simulations both for the full system with long-range Coulomb interactions and for a well-chosen reference system with short-range intermolecular interactions. Analyzing results using concepts from Local Molecular Field (LMF) theory and the recently proposed AI-based analysis tool “State predictive information bottleneck” (SPIB), we show that the system with short-range interactions can accurately reproduce the transition rate for the dissociation process, the dynamics for moving between the underlying metastable states, and the transition state ensemble. Contributions from long-range interactions can be largely neglected for these processes because long-range forces from the direct interionic Coulomb interactions are almost completely canceled (>90%) by those from solvent interactions over the length scale where the transition takes place. Thus, for this important monovalent ion-pair system, short-range forces alone are able to capture detailed consequences of the collective solvent motion, allowing the use of physically suggestive and computationally efficient short-range models for the dissociation event. Here, we believe that the framework here should be applicable to disentangling mechanisms for more complex processes such as multivalent ion disassociation, where previous work has suggested that long-range contributions may be more important.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Improving Time Step Convergence in an Atmosphere Model With Simplified Physics: The Impacts of Closure Assumption and Process Coupling

Convergence testing is a common practice in the development of dynamical cores of atmospheric models but is not as often exercised for the parameterization of sub-grid physics. An earlier study revealed that the stratiform cloud parameterizations in several predecessors of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) showed strong time-step sensitivity and slower-than-expected convergence when the model's time step was systematically refined. In this work, a simplified atmosphere model is configured that consists of the spectral-element dynamical core of the E3SM atmosphere model coupled with a large-scale condensation parameterization based on commonly used assumptions. This simplified model also resembles E3SM and its predecessors in the numerical implementation of process coupling and shows poor time-step convergence in short ensemble tests. We present a formal error analysis to reveal the expected time-step convergence rate and the conditions for obtaining such convergence. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the root causes of convergence problems. We show that revisions in the process coupling and closure assumption help to improve convergence in short simulations using the simplified model; the same revisions applied to a full atmosphere model lead to significant changes in the simulated long-term climate. This work demonstrates that causes of convergence issues in atmospheric simulations can be understood by combining analyses from physical and mathematical perspectives. Addressing convergence issues can help to obtain a discrete model that is more consistent with the intended representation of the physical phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Mean State Cloud Properties in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Accurately simulating clouds remains a key challenge in global climate models, primarily because cloud formation involves sub-grid processes that are parameterized and crudely represented in models. This study examines the performance of DOE's Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) in simulating cloud properties and their spatio-temporal distribution by comparing against satellite observations. Two horizontal resolutions of SCREAM (3 and 12 km) are examined, and both depict a realistic spatial structure of mean-state cloud cover but underestimate its global mean magnitude. SCREAM 3 km reasonably reproduces the distribution of mean-state cloud properties across various cloud optical thickness and cloud-top pressure regimes, with performance comparable to CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble and marginally outperforming SCREAM 12 km. Still, SCREAM 3 km tends to underpredict low clouds and optically thin clouds, highlighting the need for continued improvement in representing unresolved processes. This study provides a basis for confidence in the representation of clouds in SCREAM, as simulating mean-state clouds is a necessary prerequisite for trusting its cloud responses to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases.

Geosciences↗

Investigating the impact of cloud-radiative feedbacks on tropical precipitation extremes

Abstract Although societally important, extreme precipitation is difficult to represent in climate models. This study shows one robust aspect of extreme precipitation across models: extreme precipitation over tropical oceans is strengthened through a positive feedback with cloud-radiative effects. This connection is shown for a multi-model ensemble with experiments that make clouds transparent to longwave radiation. In all cases, tropical extreme precipitation reduces without cloud-radiative effects. Qualitatively similar results are presented for one model using the cloud-locking method to remove cloud feedbacks. The reduced extreme precipitation without cloud-radiative feedbacks does not arise from changes in the mean climate. Rather, evidence is presented that cloud-radiative feedbacks enhance organization of convection and most extreme precipitation over tropical oceans occurs within organized systems. This result suggests that climate models must correctly predict cloud structure and properties, as well as capture the essence of organized convection in order to accurately represent extreme rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bridging confined phase behavior of CH 4 -CO 2 binary systems across scales

Phase behavior of confined fluids may deviate significantly from that of the bulk fluid due to the fluid-wall interactions being a significant portion of all intermolecular interactions under confinement. Despite recent advancements in understanding confined phase behavior of pure fluids, confined phase behavior of mixtures remains an understudied topic. In this work, we examine the confined phase behavior of a CH 4 -CO 2 binary system by combining Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, a cubic equation of state (EoS), and the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). First, the effects of confinement on density and phase distribution in nano-size pores are established using Gibbs Ensemble MC calculations, which produce precise results of liquid and vapor confined pressures and account for the modification of the phase change location. By comparing the phase envelopes of bulk and confined mixtures at a fixed temperature, here it is observed that the phase envelopes shrink with reductions in pore size. Based on this observation, we extend a modified Peng-Robinson EoS, which was originally developed for pure fluids under confinement, to mixtures via van-der-Waals-type mixing rules and by accounting for shifts in the critical properties of confined CH 4 -CO 2 . The resulting phase envelopes are in good agreement with the MC data. In addition, a local density model is used in combination with the confined EoS to calculate adsorption isotherms of CH 4 -CO 2 mixtures and to characterize the behavior of confined matter in nanopores. Finally, we incorporate this EoS in a multicomponent multiphase LBM that uses a pseudopotential model to represent intermolecular forces. This workflow utilizes multiscale simulation techniques to bridge the behavior of multicomponent systems across scales and to shed light on the confined phase behavior of CH 4 -CO 2 binary systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optimal Power Management for Large-Scale Battery Energy Storage Systems via Bayesian Inference

Large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) have found ever-increasing use across industry and society to accelerate clean energy transition and improve energy supply reliability and resilience. However, their optimal power management poses significant challenges: the underlying high-dimensional nonlinear nonconvex optimization lacks computational tractability in real-world implementation, and the uncertainty of the exogenous power demand makes exact optimization difficult. This paper presents a new solution framework to address these bottlenecks. The solution pivots on introducing power-sharing ratios to specify each cell’s power quota from the output power demand. To find the optimal power-sharing ratios, we formulate a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) problem to achieve power-loss-minimizing BESS operation while complying with safety, cell balancing, and power supply-demand constraints. We then propose a parameterized control policy for the power-sharing ratios, which utilizes only three parameters, to reduce the computational demand in solving the NMPC problem. This policy parameterization allows us to translate the NMPC problem into a Bayesian inference problem for the sake of 1) computational tractability, and 2) overcoming the nonconvexity of the optimization problem. We leverage the ensemble Kalman inversion technique to solve the parameter estimation problem. Concurrently, a low-level control loop is developed to seamlessly integrate our proposed approach with the BESS to ensure practical implementation. This low-level controller receives the optimal power-sharing ratios, generates output power references for the cells, and maintains a balance between power supply and demand despite uncertainty in output power. We conduct extensive simulations and experiments on a 20-cell prototype to validate the proposed approach.

Battery energy storage systems (BESSs)↗

Finite-Temperature Structures of Supported Subnanometer Catalysts Inferred via Statistical Learning and Genetic Algorithm-Based Optimization

Single-atom catalysts (SACs) minimize noble metal utilization and can alter the activity and selectivity of supported metal nanoparticles. However, the morphology of active centers, including single atoms and subnanometer clusters of a few atoms, remains elusive due to experimental challenges. The computational cost to describe numerous cluster shapes and sizes makes direct first-principles calculations impractical. We present a computational framework to enable structure determination for single-atom and subnanometer cluster catalysts. As a case study, we obtained the low energy structures of Pd n (n = 1-21) clusters supported on CeO 2 (111), which are critical components of automobile three-way catalysts. Trained on density functional theory data, a three-dimensional cluster expansion is established using statistical learning to describe the Hamiltonian and predict energies of supported Pdn clusters of any structure. Low energy stable and metastable structures are identified using a Metropolis Monte Carlo-based genetic algorithm in the canonical ensemble at 300 K. We observe that supported single atoms sinter to form bilayer clusters and large cluster isomers share similarities in both shape and energy, and elucidate the significance of the support and microstructure on cluster stability. We discovered a simple surrogate structure-energy model, where the energy per atom scales with the square root of the average first coordination number, which can be used to estimate energies and compare the stability of clusters. Our framework, applicable to any metal/support system, fills an important methodological gap to predict the stability of supported metal catalysts in the subnanometer regime.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Measurement of the production and elliptic flow of (anti)nuclei in Xe-Xe collisions at √sNN = 5.44 TeV

Measurements of (anti)deuteron and (anti) 3He production in the rapidity range |𝑦|<0.5 as a function of the transverse momentum and event multiplicity in Xe-Xe collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon-nucleon pair of √𝑠𝑁⁢𝑁=5.44 TeV are presented. The coalescence parameters 𝐵2 and 𝐵3 are measured as a function of the transverse momentum per nucleon. The ratios between (anti)deuteron and (anti) 3He yields and those of (anti)protons and pions are reported as a function of the mean charged-particle multiplicity density and compared with two implementations of the statistical hadronization model and with coalescence predictions. The elliptic flow of (anti)deuterons is measured for the first time in Xe-Xe collisions and shows features similar to those already observed in Pb-Pb collisions, i.e., the mass ordering at low transverse momentum and the meson-baryon grouping at intermediate transverse momentum. The production of nuclei is particularly sensitive to the chemical freeze-out temperature of the system created in the collision, which is extracted from a grand-canonical-ensemble-based thermal fit, performed for the first time including light nuclei along with light-flavor hadrons in Xe-Xe collisions. The extracted chemical freeze-out temperature 𝑇chem=(154.2±1.1) MeV in Xe-Xe collisions is similar to that observed in Pb-Pb collisions and close to the crossover temperature predicted by lattice quantum chromodynamics calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Revealing the Crystalline Architecture of Semicrystalline Ion Exchange Membranes for the Design of Conductive and Durable Alkaline Anion Exchange Membranes

Alkaline anion exchange membrane (AAEM) fuel cells offer a cost-effective alternative to proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells by eliminating the need for expensive precious metal catalysts. In both PEMs and AAEMs, semicrystalline polymers are a common choice, as the crystalline domains can act as mechanical reinforcements that limit swelling and promote mechanical durability in the material. However, spatially resolved characterization of crystalline organization in ion exchange membranes beyond ensemble-averaged X-ray scattering is underrepresented, likely in part due to ionization damage limitations in soft materials. Here, in this study, we resolve the nanometer-size crystallites in semicrystalline ion exchange membranes by applying cryogenic four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (cryo-4D-STEM) along with data-processing algorithms designed to optimize signals at a low dose to minimize radiation damage. We investigate the effects of synthesis components, including molecular weight and thermal treatment, on a model system of AAEMs in comparison to Nafion, the most commonly used and commercially successful PEM today. We find that excess water uptake in polymer membranes, a property directly associated with weak mechanical durability and with possible negative impacts on ion conductivity, can be reduced by over 30% by varying the polymer's crystalline morphology through changes in synthesis parameters such as molecular weight and thermal history. Our results indicate that this improvement is correlated with smaller crystalline domains with a more homogeneous distribution. More broadly, these results demonstrate how the crystalline architecture of polymer membranes can be tuned through their chemistry and thermal treatment in order to improve their conductivity and durability for commercial fuel cell performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Future Changes in Midwest Extreme Precipitation Depend on Storm Type

Midwestern U.S. extreme precipitation is associated with multiple storm types including mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and/or training thunderstorms, tropical cyclone (TC) remnants, and winter storms. Anthropogenic warming is expected to increase climatological precipitation globally, however, there may be little correspondence with regional storm-based changes. Furthermore, uncertainty remains in precipitation-temperature scaling due to use of convective parameterization in most global models. In this study, we investigated historically impactful extreme precipitation events from multiple types of Midwest storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection-permitting resolution. We simulated five-member ensembles of historical hindcasts and experiments representing the storms in the future using the pseudo-global warming method. We found that future precipitation changes depend on storm type, with increases near Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) for winter storms, no consensus for MCSs and/or training thunderstorms, and sub-CC increases for TC remnants. This research highlights the importance of considering storm type in future extreme precipitation projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tailoring Spin-Wave Channels in a Reconfigurable Artificial Spin Ice

Artificial spin ices are ensembles of geometrically arranged interacting nanomagnets that have shown promising potential for the realization of reconfigurable magnonic crystals. Such systems allow for the manipulation of spin waves on the nanoscale and their potential use as information carriers. However, there are presently two general obstacles to the realization of artificial spin-ice-based magnonic crystals: the magnetic state of artificial spin ices is difficult to reconfigure and the magnetostatic interactions between the nanoislands are often weak, preventing mode coupling. We demonstrate, using micromagnetic modeling, that coupling a reconfigurable artificial spin-ice geometry made of weakly interacting nanomagnets to a soft magnetic underlayer creates a complex system exhibiting dynamically coupled modes. These give rise to spin-wave channels in the underlayer at well-defined frequencies, based on the artificial spin-ice magnetic state, which can be reconfigured. Finally, these findings open the door to the realization of reconfigurable magnonic crystals with potential applications for data transport and processing in magnonic-based logic architectures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Towards physics-inspired data-driven weather forecasting: integrating data assimilation with a deep spatial-transformer-based U-NET in a case study with ERA5

Abstract. There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), e.g., using convolutional neural networks such as U-NET that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose three components, inspired by physics, to integrate with commonly used DDWP models in order to improve their forecast accuracy. These components are (1) a deep spatial transformer added to the latent space of U-NET to capture rotation and scaling transformation in the latent space for spatiotemporal data, (2) a data-assimilation (DA) algorithm to ingest noisy observations and improve the initial conditions for next forecasts, and (3) a multi-time-step algorithm, which combines forecasts from DDWP models with different time steps through DA, improving the accuracy of forecasts at short intervals. To show the benefit and feasibility of each component, we use geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis and examine the short-term forecast accuracy of specific setups of the DDWP framework. Results show that the spatial-transformer-based U-NET (U-STN) clearly outperforms the U-NET, e.g., improving the forecast skill by 45 %. Using a sigma-point ensemble Kalman (SPEnKF) algorithm for DA and U-STN as the forward model, we show that stable, accurate DA cycles are achieved even with high observation noise. This DDWP+DA framework substantially benefits from large (O(1000)) ensembles that are inexpensively generated with the data-driven forward model in each DA cycle. The multi-time-step DDWP+DA framework also shows promise; for example, it reduces the average error by factors of 2–3. These results show the benefits and feasibility of these three components, which are flexible and can be used in a variety of DDWP setups. Furthermore, while here we focus on weather forecasting, the three components can be readily adopted for other parts of the Earth system, such as ocean and land, for which there is a rapid growth of data and need for forecast and assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gravitational index of the heterotic string

The fundamental heterotic string has a tower of BPS states whose supersymmetric index has an exponential growth in the charges. We construct the saddle-point of the gravitational path integral corresponding to this index. The saddle-point configuration is a supersymmetric rotating non-extremal Euclidean black hole. This configuration is singular in the two-derivative theory. We show that the addition of higher-derivative terms in four-dimensional N = 2 supergravity resolves the singularity. In doing so, we extend the recently-developed “new attractor mechanism” to include the effect of higher-derivative terms. Remarkably, the one-loop, four-derivative F-term contribution to the prepotential leads to a precise match of the gravitational and microscopic index. We also comment, using the effective theory near the horizon, on the possibility of a string-size near-extremal black hole. Our results clarify the meaning of different descriptions of this system in the literature. The thermal state transitions to a winding condensate and a gas of strings without ever reaching a small black hole, while the index is captured by the rotating Euclidean black hole solution and is constant and thus smoothly connected to the microscopic ensemble.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mapping the global distribution of C 4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory

Plants with the C 4 photosynthesis pathway typically respond to climate change differently from more common C 3 -type plants, due to their distinct anatomical and biochemical characteristics. These different responses are expected to drive changes in global C 4 and C 3 vegetation distributions. However, current C 4 vegetation distribution models may not predict this response as they do not capture multiple interacting factors and often lack observational constraints. Here, we used global observations of plant photosynthetic pathways, satellite remote sensing, and photosynthetic optimality theory to produce an observation-constrained global map of C 4 vegetation. We find that global C 4 vegetation coverage decreased from 17.7% to 17.1% of the land surface during 2001 to 2019. This was the net result of a reduction in C 4 natural grass cover due to elevated CO 2 favoring C 3 -type photosynthesis, and an increase in C 4 crop cover, mainly from corn (maize) expansion. Using an emergent constraint approach, we estimated that C 4 vegetation contributed 19.5% of global photosynthetic carbon assimilation, a value within the range of previous estimates (18–23%) but higher than the ensemble mean of dynamic global vegetation models (14 ± 13%; mean ± one standard deviation). Our study sheds insight on the critical and underappreciated role of C 4 plants in the contemporary global carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗