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At least 523 records · Page 29

Assimilation of Lidar Planetary Boundary Layer Height Observations

Lidar backscatter and wind retrievals of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) are assimilated into 22 hourly forecasts from the NASA Unified - Weather and Research Forecast (NU-WRF) model during the Plains Elevated Convection Convection at Night (PECAN) campaign on July 11, 2015 in Greensburg, Kansas, using error statistics collected from the model profiles to compute the necessary covariance matrices. Two separate forecast runs using different PBL physics schemes were employed, and comparisons with 6 independent radiosonde profiles were made for each run. Both of the forecast runs accurately predicted the PBLH and the state variable profiles within the planetary boundary layer during the early morning, and the assimilation had a small impact during this time. In the late afternoon, the forecast runs showed decreased accuracy as the convective boundary layer developed. However, assimilation of the Doppler lidar PBLH observations were found to improve the temperature and V velocity profiles relative to independent radiosonde profiles. Water vapor was overcorrected, leading to increased differences with independent data. Errors in the U velocity were made slightly larger. The computed forecast error covariances between the PBLH and state variables were found to rise in the late afternoon, leading to the larger improvements in the afternoon. This work represents the first effort to assimilate PBLH into forecast states using ensemble methods.

Andrew Tangborn↗

Reducing uncertainty about carbon dioxide as a climate driver

The lack of an adequate ancient analogue for future climates means that we ultimately must use and trust climate models, evaluated against modern observation and our best geologic records of warm and cold climates of the past. Armed with an elevated confidence in the models, we will then be able to make reliable predictions of the Earth's response to our risky experiment with the climate system.

Climate↗

The interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling for enhancing the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands

There is a lack of an urban building energy modeling framework that considers the influence of surrounding buildings and local urban climate on building thermal performance. This can lead to inaccurate results since the thermal performance of individual buildings is heavily influenced by their surrounding built and climatic environment. This study establishes an interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling method to enhance the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands by coupling an urban physics model with a physics-based building energy model. Validation of the interactive coupling scheme uses field measurement datasets. Parametric simulation and analysis are conducted to understand the influence of the roof-to-canyon width ratio, canyon orientation, and ground vegetation fraction on canyon temperature, building energy consumption, and energy demand. Furthermore, the impacts of building energy model complexity (e.g., detailed vs. simplified building models) and coupling approaches on canyon temperature and building energy profiles are demonstrated using two case study buildings. In comparison with the one-way coupling approach, cooling energy consumption predicted with the dynamic two-way coupling approach varies by 3.5% and 0.5% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively, and peak cooling demand varies by 8.4% and 7.0% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively. Here this study also suggests that adopting a complex two-way coupling approach with environmental data exchange at various elevations is necessary for modeling tall buildings at the urban scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Processes Influencing Ozone Levels in Alaskan Forest Fires Plumes during Long-Range Transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by 3 different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, is used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data, and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume is investigated using in-situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18 percent in O3 production and 24 percent in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume towards Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport, and also, on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutants level in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume are also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes changed from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting small underestimation of photochemical processes. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the Europe boundary layer is also examined by running the model for a further 5 days, and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over this 10 days due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost due to the effects of dilution. However, measurement in several others BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be punctually significant over Europe.

Real, E.↗

Adaptation of SUBSTOR for controlled-environment potato production with elevated carbon dioxide

The SUBSTOR crop growth model was adapted for controlled-environment hydroponic production of potato (Solanum tuberosum L. cv. Norland) under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Adaptations included adjustment of input files to account for cultural differences between the field and controlled environments, calibration of genetic coefficients, and adjustment of crop parameters including radiation use efficiency. Source code modifications were also performed to account for the absorption of light reflected from the surface below the crop canopy, an increased leaf senescence rate, a carbon (mass) balance to the model, and to modify the response of crop growth rate to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Adaptations were primarily based on growth and phenological data obtained from growth chamber experiments at Rutgers University (New Brunswick, N.J.) and from the modeling literature. Modified-SUBSTOR predictions were compared with data from Kennedy Space Center's Biomass Production Chamber for verification. Results show that, with further development, modified-SUBSTOR will be a useful tool for analysis and optimization of potato growth in controlled environments.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentrations Estimation Based on Stacked Ensemble Learning Model Using Multi-Source Satellite TOA Data

Nepal has experienced severe fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in recent years. However, few studies have focused on the distribution of PM2.5 and its variations in Nepal. Although many researchers have developed PM2.5 estimation models, these models have mainly focused on the kilometer scale, which cannot provide accurate spatial distribution of PM2.5 pollution. Based on Gaofen-1/6 and Landsat-8/9 satellite data, we developed a stacked ensemble learning model (named XGBLL) combined with meteorological data, ground PM2.5 concentrations, ground elevation, and population data. The model includes two layers: a XGBoost and Light GBM model in the first layer, and a linear regression model in the second layer. The accuracy of XGBLL model is better than that of a single model, and the fusion of multi-source satellite remote sensing data effectively improves the spatial coverage of PM2.5 concentrations. Besides, the spatial distribution of the daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in the Kathmandu region under different air conditions was analyzed. The validation results showed that the monthly averaged dataset was accurate (R2 = 0.80 and root mean square error = 7.07). In addition, compared to previous satellite PM2.5 datasets in Nepal, the dataset produced in this study achieved superior accuracy and spatial resolution.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The 2025 Evaluation of Experimental Thermonuclear Reaction Rates (ETR25)

This work describes the formalism for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates for astrophysical applications, emphasizing modern statistical approaches such as Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian models. We discuss related topics including the calculation of resonance energies from nuclear Q values, indirect estimates of particle partial widths, and matching of reaction rates at elevated temperatures to statistical model results. We have evaluated available experimental data on cross sections, resonance energies and strengths, partial widths, lifetimes, spin-parities, and spectroscopic factors. Based on these results, we have estimated numerical values of 78 experimental charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates for target nuclei in the A = 2–40 mass region, for temperatures ranging from 1 MK to 10 GK. For each reaction, three rate values are provided: low, median, and high, corresponding to the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, of the cumulative reaction rate probability density distribution. Additionally, we present the factor uncertainty of each rate at each temperature grid point. These results enable users to sample the reaction rate probability density in nucleosynthesis calculations, facilitating uncertainty estimates of nuclidic abundances. The rates presented here refer to their laboratory values. For use in stellar model simulations, these values need to be corrected for the effects of thermal excitations of the interacting nuclei. For each reaction, we include graphs that illustrate the fractional contributions to the overall reaction rate along with the associated uncertainty. These visuals are designed to assist both stellar modelers and nuclear experimentalists by identifying the primary sources of rate uncertain=^texttx);ty at specific stellar temperatures. A graphical comparison with earlier Monte Carlo rates is also provided.

Nuclear astrophysics↗

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropospheric aerosols over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the winter and summer deployments of ACTIVATE 2020: life cycle, transport, and distribution

The Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) is a NASA mission to characterize aerosol–cloud interactions over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO). Such characterization requires understanding of life cycle, composition, transport pathways, and distribution of aerosols over the WNAO. This study uses the GEOS-Chem model to simulate aerosol distributions and properties that are evaluated against aircraft, ground-based, and satellite observations during the winter and summer field deployments in 2020 of ACTIVATE. Transport in the boundary layer (BL) behind cold fronts was a major mechanism for the North American continental outflow of pollution to the WNAO in winter. Turbulent mixing was the main driver for the upward transport of sea salt within and ventilation out of BL in winter. The BL aerosol composition was dominated by sea salt, which increased in the summer, followed by organics and sulfate. Aircraft in situ aerosol measurements provided useful constraints on wet scavenging in GEOS-Chem. The model generally captured observed features such as continental outflow, land–ocean gradient, and mixing of anthropogenic aerosols with sea salt. Model sensitivity experiments with elevated smoke injection heights to the mid-troposphere (versus within BL) better reproduced observations of smoke aerosols from the western US wildfires over the WNAO in the summer. Model analysis suggests strong hygroscopic growth of sea salt particles and their seeding of marine BL clouds over the WNAO (< 35° N). Future modeling efforts should focus on improving parameterizations for aerosol wet scavenging, implementing realistic smoke injection heights, and applying high-resolution models that better resolve vertical transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constitutive modeling of superalloy single crystals with verification testing

The goal is the development of constitutive equations to describe the elevated temperature stress-strain behavior of single crystal turbine blade alloys. The program includes both the development of a suitable model and verification of the model through elevated temperature-torsion testing. A constitutive model is derived from postulated constitutive behavior on individual crystallographic slip systems. The behavior of the entire single crystal is then arrived at by summing up the slip on all the operative crystallographic slip systems. This type of formulation has a number of important advantages, including the prediction orientation dependence and the ability to directly represent the constitutive behavior in terms which metallurgists use in describing the micromechanisms. Here, the model is briefly described, followed by the experimental set-up and some experimental findings to date.

Jordan, Eric↗

Laser Altimetry Sampling Strategies over Sea Ice

With the conclusion of the science phase of the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission in late 2009, and the planned launch of ICESat-2 in late 2015, NASA has recently established the IceBridge program to provide continuity between missions. A major goal of IceBridge is to obtain a sea-ice thickness time series via airborne surveys over the Arctic and Southern Oceans. Typically two laser altimeters, the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) and the Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS), are utilized during IceBridge flights. Using laser altimetry simulations of conventional analogue systems such as ICESat, LVIS and ATM, with the multi-beam system proposed for ICESat-2, we investigate differences in measurements gathered at varying spatial resolutions and the impact on sea-ice freeboard. We assess the ability of each system to reproduce the elevation distributions of two seaice models and discuss potential biases in lead detection and sea-surface elevation, arising from variable footprint size and spacing. The conventional systems accurately reproduce mean freeboard over 25km length scales, while ICESat-2 offers considerable improvements over its predecessor ICESat. In particular, its dense along-track sampling of the surface will allow flexibility in the algorithmic approaches taken to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio for accurate and precise freeboard retrieval.

Farrell, Sinead L.↗

The albedo of snow for partially cloudy skies

The input parameters of the model are atmospheric precipitable water, ozone content, turbidity, cloud optical thickness, size and shape of ice crystal of snow and surface pressure. The model outputs spectral and integrated solar flux snow reflectance as a function of solar elevation and fractional cloudcover. The model is illustrated using representative parameters for the Antarctic coastal regions. The albedo for a clear sky depends inversely on the solar elevation. At high elevation the albedo depends primarily upon the grain size; at low elevation this dependence is on grain size and shape. The gradient of the albedo-elevation curve increases as the grains get larger and faceted. The albedo for a dense overcast is a few percent higher than the clear sky albedo at high elevations. A simple relation between the grain size and the overcast albedo is obtained. For a set of grain size and shape, the albedo matrices (the albedo as a function of solar elevation and fractional cloudcover) are tabulated.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

Downwash of airplane winds

The data for the calculation of the air forces acting on the elevators, obtained from previous model experiments are not immediately applicable in practice, as the angle at which the control surfaces meet the air stream is, in general, still unknown. The air stream, when it reaches the elevator has already been deflected by the wings and although the velocity imparted to the air current by the wings is of negligible amount compared with the speed of flight, the air behind the wings has been deflected downwards, so that the elevators work in an airstream which is inclined in a downward direction. The angle at which the air stream meets the elevator surface is, therefore, different from, and, with the usual arrangement of elevators, less than the angle made by the elevator surfaces with the line of flight.

Munk, Max↗

Exploring topography-based methods for downscaling subgrid precipitation for use in Earth System Models

Topography exerts major control on land surface processes. To improve representation of topographic impacts on land surface processes, a new topography-based subgrid structure has been introduced to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model to represent the subgrid heterogeneity of surface elevation. To take advantage of the new subgrid structure for improving land surface modeling, this study explores four variations of topography-based methods for downscaling grid precipitation to the corresponding subgrids. In the first three methods, the deviation of the subgrid precipitation from the grid’s is equal to the grid precipitation multiplied by the ratio of the elevation difference between the subgrid and grid mean to a specified elevation equals to the grid elevation, the difference between the maximum and minimum subgrid elevation, and the maximum subgrid elevation, respectively. The second method limits the ratio to 0.5 to avoid extreme values on mountains and the third method accounts for the slope effect. The fourth method is similar to the third method except that the Froude Number is used to limit the numerator in a blocking regime of the ambient flow. The downscaled precipitation is evaluated using the PRISM precipitation data over the U.S. using statistical metrics. Results show that by accounting for topographic slope besides elevation, the third and fourth methods show clear advantages over the first and second methods. Furthermore, introducing the Froude Number in the fourth method improves downscaling skill and shows consistent advantages over the third method in areas with larger subgrid heterogeneity across different grids sizes.

Tesfa, Teklu K.↗

Extending a land-surface model with <i>Sphagnum</i> moss to simulate responses of a northern temperate bog to whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO<sub>2</sub>

Abstract. Mosses need to be incorporated into Earth system models to better simulate peatland functional dynamics under the changing environment. Sphagnum mosses are strong determinants of nutrient, carbon, and water cycling in peatland ecosystems. However, most land-surface models do not include Sphagnum or other mosses as represented plant functional types (PFTs), thereby limiting predictive assessment of peatland responses to environmental change. In this study, we introduce a moss PFT into the land model component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing water content dynamics and nonvascular photosynthetic processes for moss. The model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic forested bog as part of the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project. The inclusion of a Sphagnum PFT with some Sphagnum-specific processes in ELM allows it to capture the observed seasonal dynamics of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP) albeit with an underestimate of peak GPP. The model simulated a reasonable annual net primary production (NPP) for moss but with less interannual variation than observed, and it reproduced aboveground biomass for tree PFTs and stem biomass for shrubs. Different species showed highly variable warming responses under both ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and elevated CO2 altered the warming response direction for the peatland ecosystem. Microtopography is critical: Sphagnum mosses on hummocks and hollows were simulated to show opposite warming responses (NPP decreasing with warming on hummocks but increasing in hollows), and hummock Sphagnum was modeled to have a strong dependence on water table height. The inclusion of this new moss PFT in global ELM simulations may provide a useful foundation for the investigation of northern peatland carbon exchange, enhancing the predictive capacity of carbon dynamics across the regional and global scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enabling fast charging of lithium-ion batteries through secondary-/dual- pore network: Part II - numerical model

To increase the market share of electric vehicles, it is desirable to reduce the battery charge times, which are significantly limited by poor electrolyte transport. A high rate charging is achievable by using expensive and low energy density cells with thin electrodes. For higher energy density cells, new electrolytes with improved conductivity and diffusivity and/or electrodes with advanced architecture are required to boost the electrolyte transport, leading to a more uniform utilization of active materials. In our previous work, an analytical model was developed to investigate the effect of secondary pore network (SPN) on electrolyte transport and the configuration of SPN was optimized by enforcing equal characteristic diffusion times in through-plane and in-plane directions. Here, to evaluate the effect of SPN on the fast-charging capability of lithium-ion batteries, a 2D physics-based electrochemical model is developed with SPN in either one or both electrodes. Additionally, the effect of SPN on cell energy density and lithium plating is investigated for cells with different loadings and electrode porosities. Combining SPN with elevated charging temperatures, the model predicts that the volumetric discharge energy density of a 3 mA h/cm2 cell can reach 270 Wh/L after a 6C constant-current charging.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Escarpment evolution on high-elevation rifted margins: Insights derived from a surface processes model that combines diffusion, advection and reaction

Experiments with a surface processes model of large-scale (1-1000 km) long-term (1-100 m.y.) erosional denudation are used to establish the controls on the evolution of a model escarpment that is related to the rifting of a continent. The mdoel describes changes in topographic form as a result of sumultaneous short- and long-range mass transport representing hillslope (diffusive) processes and fluvial transport (advection), repsectively. Fluvial entrainment is modeled as a first-order kinetic reaction which reflects the erodibility of the substrate, and therefore the fluvial system is not necessarily carrying at capacity. One dimensional and planform models demonstrate that the principal controls on the evolution of an initially steep model escarpment are (1) antecedent topography/drainage; (2) the timesale (or equivalently a length scale) in the fluvial entrainment reaction; (3) the flexural response of the lithosphere to denudation; and (4) the relative efficiencies of the short- and long-range transport processes. When rainfall and substrate lithology are uniform, a significant amount of discharge draining over the escarpment top causes it to degrade. Only when the top of the model escarpment coincides with a drainage divide can escarpment retreat occur for these conditions. An additional requirement for retreat of a model escarpment without decline is a long reaction time scale for fluvial entrainment. This corresponds to a substrate that is hard to detach by flucial erosion, and therefore to fluvial erosion that is not transport limited. Coninuous backtilting of an escarpment due ot flexural isostatic uplift in response to denudational unloading helps maintain the scarp top as a divide. It is essntial if the escarpment gradient is to be preserved during retreat in a uniform lithology. Low flexural rigidieties propote steep and slowly retreating escarpments. For given rainfall and substrate conditions, the morphology of a retraeating model escarpment is determined by the ratio of hte short-range diffusive and long range advective transport efficiencies. A low ration (which is interpreted to correspond to a more humid, temperate climate) produces a convex upper slope, and concave lower slope morphology and only major escarpments are predicted to preserve a high scarp gradient. Lithological contrasts in hte model produce more complex morphologies and predict the formation of scarps crowned by an erosionaly resistant caprock. However, resistant caprocks are not an essential requirement for model scarps to retreat. We conclude that the inferred controls and model behavior are both consistent with the present-day morphology of rifted continental margins and with modern conceptual models of landscape evolution.

Kooi, Henk↗