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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Ride-Matching for Large-Scale Transportation Systems

Efficient dynamic ride-matching (DRM) in large-scale transportation systems is a key driver in transport simulations to yield answers to challenging problems. Although the DRM problem is simple to solve, it quickly becomes a computationally challenging problem in large-scale transportation system simulations. Therefore, this study thoroughly examines the DRM problem dynamics and proposes an optimization-based solution framework to solve the problem efficiently. To benefit from parallel computing and reduce computational times, the problem’s network is divided into clusters utilizing a commonly used unsupervised machine learning algorithm along with a linear programming model. Then, these sub-problems are solved using another linear program to finalize the ride-matching. At the clustering level, the framework allows users adjusting cluster sizes to balance the trade-off between the computational time savings and the solution quality deviation. A case study in the Chicago Metropolitan Area, U.S., illustrates that the framework can reduce the average computational time by 58% at the cost of increasing the average pick up time by 26% compared with a system optimum, that is, non-clustered, approach. Another case study in a relatively small city, Bloomington, Illinois, U.S., shows that the framework provides quite similar results to the system-optimum approach in approximately 62% less computational time.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design Considerations of DC/DC Regulator for High-Power Dynamic Wireless Charging Systems

Due to fast fluctuating input voltage, dynamic wireless charging requires a post-regulator stage for battery charging control and management. This regulator stage has a high requirement on efficiency, size as well as control performance to ensure tight regulation and fast trainset. This paper addresses the control challenges by modeling the system and designing the compensator with input voltage feedforward control. In addition, high resolution PWM is implemented to improve transient performance and current balancing among the phases. Experimental results prove the effectiveness of the proposed schemes and validates 180 kW closed-loop 4-phase operation at 99% efficiency.

Xue, Lincoln↗
DOE OSTI2025

ARM-IRL: Adaptive Resilience Metric Quantification Using Inverse Reinforcement Learning

The resilience of safety-critical systems is gaining importance due to the rise in cyber and physical threats, especially within critical infrastructure. Traditional static resilience metrics may not capture dynamic system states, leading to inaccurate assessments and ineffective responses to cyber threats. This work aims to develop a data-driven, adaptive method for resilience metric learning. We propose a data-driven approach using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to learn a single, adaptive resilience metric. The method infers a reward function from expert control actions. Unlike previous approaches using static weights or fuzzy logic, this work applies adversarial inverse reinforcement learning (AIRL), training a generator and discriminator in parallel to learn the reward structure and derive an optimal policy. The proposed approach is evaluated on multiple scenarios: optimal communication network rerouting, power distribution network reconfiguration, and cyber–physical restoration of critical loads using the IEEE 123-bus system. The adaptive, learned resilience metric enables faster critical load restoration in comparison to conventional RL approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear proper orthogonal decomposition for convection-dominated flows

Autoencoder techniques find increasingly common use in reduced order modeling as a means to create a latent space. This reduced order representation offers a modular data-driven modeling approach for nonlinear dynamical systems when integrated with a time series predictive model. In this Letter, we put forth a nonlinear proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) framework, which is an end-to-end Galerkin-free model combining autoencoders with long short-term memory networks for dynamics. By eliminating the projection error due to the truncation of Galerkin models, a key enabler of the proposed nonintrusive approach is the kinematic construction of a nonlinear mapping between the full-rank expansion of the POD coefficients and the latent space where the dynamics evolve. We test our framework for model reduction of a convection-dominated system, which is generally challenging for reduced order models. Our approach not only improves the accuracy, but also significantly reduces the computational cost of training and testing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics

This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.

Data Assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal operational controls for power grid

Power grid operation is facing increased penetration of renewables and distributed energy resources at both transmission and distribution levels. This presents an increased level of randomness and uncertainty for its operational quality, where the challenges are mainly how controls and optimizations can be performed so that the operational quality of the power grid can be maintained. An interesting feature is also that we need to make a good use of uncertainties embedded in the swing equation from the renewable contributions rather than simply trying to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Furthermore, this requires effective solutions on system estimation, control, and optimization. Indeed, in past decades, work has been carried out on the development of advanced controls and optimization for such complicated dynamic systems. Examples are optimal operational control for both performance and stability enhancement considering random renewables penetration, frequency, and active power control for microgrids and parameter estimation for various parts of the power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Voltage Regulation of Distribution Grid Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Model with Exogenous Inputs (NARX)

This article proposes data-driven control via a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) for real-time voltage regulation of a modified feeder using reactive power sources. Traditional voltage control strategies rely on rule-based heuristics or optimization techniques, which often require detailed system models and extensive computational resources. The NARX-based controller learns system dynamics from historical data and predicts optimal reactive power dispatch in real-time for voltage correction. The proposed approach is evaluated on a power system feeder model under varying load and network conditions. Simulation results demonstrate that the NARX-based controller achieves improved voltage regulation, offering higher adaptability to system fluctuations. This study highlights the potential of data-driven control for enhancing the reliability of power distribution networks.

Donge, Vrushabh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306062803)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for: Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events

This dataset contains data and code associated with the paper Patel et al. "Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events".The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic system characterized by strong physical, chemical, and biological gradients. In particular, shifting soil redox conditions and consumption of terminal electron acceptors, due in part to dynamic hydrologic conditions, is a strong driver of carbon availability and transformations across TAIs. However, while redox dynamics are well described, our ability to quantitatively forecast rates of oxic to anoxic shifts in soils with different characteristics and inundation regimes is limited. We integrated field measurements, laboratory incubations, and model simulations to improve mechanistic understanding of oxygen consumption dynamics in coastal soils. Continuous in situ monitoring unexpectedly revealed that flooding caused temporary spikes in subsurface dissolved oxygen followed by rapid consumption in the wetlands. To further investigate these mechanisms in a controlled setting, we performed laboratory incubations using surface and subsurface soils from a TAI gradient (defined here as upland forest to transitional forest to wetland) in Western Lake Erie to measure oxygen consumption rates in TAI soils during flood events. In our experiments, wetland soils reached anoxia the fastest, in ∼ 9 h on average, whereas upland soils turned anoxic in ∼ 18 h. Subsurface upland soils did not turn anoxic even after two weeks of saturation in the lab, and their oxygen consumption patterns suggested carbon and/or nutrient limitation. These results are consistent with in-situ groundwater redox and oxygen measurements in the field, where wetland soils exhibited the highest rates of oxygen consumption along the TAI. Model simulations of oxygen consumption suggested that oxygen consumption had stronger abiotic controls in wetland soils but stronger biotic controls in upland soils, providing a useful framework for future incubation experiments. Microbial activity is a strong driver of oxygen consumption in TAI soils, although it is constrained by the availability of dissolved carbon in subsurface soils.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/COMPASS-DOE/cmps-time_to_anoxia (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10815374).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A scalable planning framework of energy storage systems under frequency dynamics constraints

As the penetration of renewables increases in power systems, the declining system inertia can cause frequency stability issues. Battery energy storage systems (BESSs) respond fast and therefore can relieve the low inertia difficulty but need to be appropriately sized considering the associated cost. This paper presents a novel stochastic optimization model for economically planning BESS capacity while considering the spatial–temporal correlation of wind generation and generator outages under frequency stability constraints, which include the rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF), frequency nadir (FN), and quasi-steady-state (QSS) frequency. A set of new FN constraints that can be easily linearized is developed. To account for renewable uncertainties, a realistic uncertainty modeling approach, Random Field, is adopted to generate wind generation scenarios by considering both spatial and temporal evolutions of wind speed profiles. The ESS sizing is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming problem and solved by using a scalable decomposition-and-coordination approach, Surrogate Absolute Value Lagrangian Relaxation (SAVLR). To further improve the scalability and reduce computational burdens, a rolling-horizon-based update is developed and incorporated into SAVLR for providing a practical solution to the long-term planning of very large-scale power systems. Finally, a modified IEEE 118-bus system and the Polish system are used to validate the effectiveness and scalability of the model and solution methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

AIRES-NODE

This software package performs time series forecasting for engineering systems using neural controlled differential equations. Neural controlled differential equations are continuous time analogues to recurrent neural networks. AIRES-NODE is particularly well suited for dynamic systems which are subject to external forcing terms and time-dependent boundary conditions. AIRES-NODE provides an encoder-decoder architecture which allows for variable-length forecasts to be made and is not limited to a fixed time step size when forecasting. Additionally, by utilizing a novel combination of a variational autoencoder and neural controlled differential equations, the AIRES-NODE package is capable of producing probabilistic future forecasts.

Gurecky, William [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heterogeneous Mixtures of Dictionary Functions to Approximate Subspace Invariance in Koopman Operators: Why Deep Koopman Operators Work

Abstract Koopman operators model nonlinear dynamics as a linear dynamic system acting on a nonlinear function as the state. This nonstandard state is often called a Koopman observable and is usually approximated numerically by a superposition of functions drawn from a dictionary . In a widely used algorithm, extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD), the dictionary functions are drawn from a fixed class of functions. Deep learning combined with EDMD has been used to learn novel dictionary functions in an algorithm called deep dynamic mode decomposition (deepDMD). The learned representation both (1) accurately models and (2) scales well with the dimension of the original nonlinear system. In this paper, we analyze the learned dictionaries from deepDMD and explore the theoretical basis for their strong performance. We explore State-Inclusive Logistic Lifting (SILL) dictionary functions to approximate Koopman observables. Error analysis of these dictionary functions show they satisfy a property of subspace approximation, which we define as uniform finite approximate closure. Typically, a Koopman dictionary’s nonlinear functions are homogeneous. In this paper, we discover that structured mixing of heterogeneous dictionary functions drawn from different classes of nonlinear functions achieve the same accuracy and dimensional scaling as the deep-learning-based deepDMD algorithm Yeung et al. ( In: 2019 American Control Conference (ACC), 2019). We specifically show this by building a heterogeneous dictionary comprised of SILL functions and conjunctive radial basis functions (RBFs). This mixed dictionary achieves similar accuracy and dimensional scaling to deepDMD with an order of magnitude reduction in parameters, while maintaining geometric interpretability. These results strengthen the viability of dictionary-based Koopman models to solving high-dimensional nonlinear learning problems.

Johnson, Charles A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conflicting Information and Compliance With COVID-19 Behavioral Recommendations

The prevalence of COVID-19 is shaped by behavioral responses to recommendations and warnings. Available information on the disease determines the population’s perception of danger and thus its behavior; this information changes dynamically, and different sources may report conflicting information. We study the feedback between disease, information, and stay-at-home behavior using a hybrid agent-based-system dynamics model that incorporates evolving trust in sources of information. We use this model to investigate how divergent reporting and conflicting information can alter the trajectory of a public health crisis. The model shows that divergent reporting not only alters disease prevalence over time, but also increases polarization of the population’s behaviors and trust in different sources of information.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hybrid magnonics: Physics, circuits, and applications for coherent information processing

Hybrid dynamic systems have recently gained interest with respect to both fundamental physics and device applications, particularly with their potential for coherent information processing. In this work, we will focus on the recent rapid developments of magnon-based hybrid systems, which seek to combine magnonic excitations with diverse excitations for transformative applications in devices, circuits, and information processing. Key to their promising potentials is that magnons are highly tunable excitations and can be easily engineered to couple with various dynamic media and platforms. The capability of reaching strong coupling with many different excitations has positioned magnons well for studying solid-state coherent dynamics and exploiting unique functionality. In addition, with their gigahertz frequency bandwidth and the ease of fabrication and miniaturization, magnonic devices and systems can be conveniently integrated into microwave circuits for mimicking a broad range of device concepts that have been applied in microwave electronics, photonics, and quantum information. We will discuss a few potential directions for advancing magnon hybrid systems, including on-chip geometry, novel coherent magnonic functionality, and coherent transduction between different platforms. As a future outlook, we will discuss the opportunities and challenges of magnonic hybrid systems for their applications in quantum information and magnonic logic.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forced Oscillation Grid Vulnerability Analysis and Mitigation Using Inverter-Based Resources: Texas Grid Case Study

Forced oscillation events have become a challenging problem with the increasing penetration of renewable and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), especially when the forced oscillation frequency coincides with the dominant natural oscillation frequency. A severe forced oscillation event can deteriorate power system dynamic stability, damage equipment, and limit power transfer capability. This paper proposes a two-dimension scanning forced oscillation grid vulnerability analysis method to identify areas/zones in the system that are critical to forced oscillation. These critical areas/zones can be further considered as effective actuator locations for the deployment of forced oscillation damping controllers. Additionally, active power modulation control through IBRs is also proposed to reduce the forced oscillation impact on the entire grid. The proposed methods are demonstrated through a case study on a synthetic Texas power system model. The simulation results demonstrate that the critical areas/zones of forced oscillation are related to the areas that highly participate in the natural oscillations and the proposed oscillation damping controller through IBRs can effectively reduce the forced oscillation impact in the entire system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-to-End Encryption for Cyber-Physical Systems Using Fully Homomorphic Encryption

Cyber-physical systems require reliable, safe, and secure control of critical infrastructure, combining computational and networking capabilities, which heighten the risk of cyber attacks. These attacks can disrupt the physical process, causing unforeseen consequences. One solution is the use of fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) to protect the control loop, allowing for secure computations and communications without compromising signal and control system privacy. The challenge with FHE, however, is its requirement for inputs to be integers. This presentation introduces a modified Learning With Errors (LWE) FHE approach that encodes control system dynamics and signals into integers. Our proposed scheme leverages a generalized LWE encoding function and modifies the Gentry-Sahai-Waters gadget decomposition tool to encrypt the control system. Using the modified LWE scheme, we formalize a fully encrypted control system, supported by simulated results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Trade-Off Study Between the Primary and Transient Responses of Grid-Forming Inverters

The control parameters of the grid-forming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBRs) directly impact power system dynamics. The primary control requires the GFM inverter to balance generation and load. It is also preferred that a GFM inverter maintain the terminal frequency after a power system fault. In this paper, we investigate the trade-off between the primary control objective and the transient response. To quantify the transient performance of the GFM inverter, we introduce a new real-time transient stability index (TSI). This index plays a crucial role in our investigation, as it allows us to compare the performance trade-offs of different sets of GFM control parameters.

Lin, Xuheng↗