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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Applying the core-satellite species concept: Characteristics of rare and common riverine dissolved organic matter

Introduction: Dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition varies over space and time, with a multitude of factors driving the presence or absence of each compound found in the complex DOM mixture. Compounds ubiquitously present across a wide range of river systems (hereafter termed core compounds) may differ in chemical composition and reactivity from compounds present in only a few settings (hereafter termed satellite compounds). Here, we investigated the spatial patterns in DOM molecular formulae presence (occupancy) in surface water and sediments across 97 river corridors at a continental scale using the “Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemical Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems—WHONDRS” research consortium. Methods: We used a novel data-driven approach to identify core and satellite compounds and compared their molecular properties identified with Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). Results: In this work, we found that core compounds clustered around intermediate hydrogen/carbon and oxygen/carbon ratios across both sediment and surface water samples, whereas the satellite compounds varied widely in their elemental composition. Within surface water samples, core compounds were dominated by lignin-like formulae, whereas protein-like formulae dominated the core pool in sediment samples. In contrast, satellite molecular formulae were more evenly distributed between compound classes in both sediment and water molecules. Core compounds found in both sediment and water exhibited lower molecular mass, lower oxidation state, and a higher degree of aromaticity, and were inferred to be more persistent than global satellite compounds. Higher putative biochemical transformations were found in core than satellite compounds, suggesting that the core pool was more processed. Discussion: The observed differences in chemical properties of core and satellite compounds point to potential differences in their sources and contribution to DOM processing in river corridors. Overall, our work points to the potential of data-driven approaches separating rare and common compounds to reduce some of the complexity inherent in studying riverine DOM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Neutron Shield Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Uncertainty quantification from radiation transport calculations was conducted using a Bayesian inference approach. A surrogate model, using a convolutional neural network, was employed to emulate the neutron fluence, which was simulated with a Monte Carlo radiation transport model. This allowed for a computationally cheap approach to evaluate input parameters and to sample their corresponding posterior probability distributions. Experimental data from the literature were employed to perform uncertainty quantification studies for concrete shields. As a result, the method is a nonintrusive approach that enables studies with multiple input parameters and can be applied to any radiation transport model.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shedding light on shadow generalized parton distributions

The feasibility of extracting generalized parton distributions (GPDs) from deeply virtual Compton scattering (DVCS) data has recently been questioned because of the existence of an infinite set of so-called “shadow GPDs” (SGPDs). These SGPDs depend on the process and manifest as multiple solutions (at a fixed scale 𝑄 2 ) to the inverse problem that needs to be solved to infer GPDs from DVCS data. SGPDs therefore pose a significant challenge for extracting GPDs from DVCS data. With this motivation we study the extent to which QCD evolution can provide constraints on SGPDs. This is possible because the known classes of SGPDs begin to contribute to observables after evolution, and can then be constrained (at the input scale 𝑄$^{2}_{0}$) by data that has a finite 𝑄 2 range. The impact that SGPDs could have on determining the total angular momentum, pressure and sheer force distributions, and tomography is also discussed. We find that 𝑄 2 evolution, given empirical data over a wide range of skewness (𝜉 ) and 𝑄 2 scales, constrains the SGPDs studied at low 𝑥 and low 𝜉. If this finding generalizes to all SGPDs—and we have not been able to find any SGPDs with qualitatively different behavior—then this potentially makes extraction of GPDs from DVCS possible over a limited range of 𝑥 and 𝜉.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atomic-Scale Imaging of Condensed Counterions

Here, the functioning of a wide variety of charged macromolecules, from DNA to fuel cell membranes, is dependent on how the counterions surrounding them are arranged. In order to decrease Coulombic repulsion, some of the fixed charges on these molecules are neutralized by a fraction of the counterions-this phenomenon is called counterion condensation. The nature of counterion condensation can be only be inferred indirectly from traditional experiments such as X-ray scattering and modern experiments such as single molecule electrometry. The prevalent conclusion in the literature, based on both theory and experiment, is that the distribution of counterions is peaked right next to the macromolecule, i.e., condensation results in the formation of contact ion pairs. In this study, cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) was used to study the arrangement of condensed halide counterions near a positively charged polypeptoid nanofiber. The locations of both condensed and fixed charges were determined directly from atomic-scale images. Our experimentally determined counterion distributions were peaked at distances of about 5 Å away from the fixed positive charge, indicating the presence of a layer of water molecules between condensed ion pairs. We posit that this distribution is driven by the entropy of the condensed ions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inference of the Mass Composition of Cosmic Rays with Energies from 10 18.5 to 10 20 eV Using the Pierre Auger Observatory and Deep Learning

We present measurements of the atmospheric depth of the shower maximum X max , inferred for the first time on an event-by-event level using the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory. Using deep learning, we were able to extend measurements of the X max distributions up to energies of 100 EeV ( 10 20 eV ), not yet revealed by current measurements, providing new insights into the mass composition of cosmic rays at extreme energies. Gaining a 10-fold increase in statistics compared to the fluorescence detector data, we find evidence that the rate of change of the average X max with the logarithm of energy features three breaks at 6.5 ± 0.6 ( stat ) ± 1 ( syst ) EeV , 11 ± 2 ( stat ) ± 1 ( syst ) EeV , and 31 ± 5 ( stat ) ± 3 ( syst ) EeV , in the vicinity to the three prominent features (ankle, instep, suppression) of the cosmic-ray flux. The energy evolution of the mean and standard deviation of the measured X max distributions indicates that the mass composition becomes increasingly heavier and purer, thus being incompatible with a large fraction of light nuclei between 50 and 100 EeV. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach

Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data Collection and Analysis Challenges and Mitigation Strategies for Quantitative Human Factors Research Studies in Nuclear Power Plant Modernization

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program Plant Modernization Pathway is conducting targeted research and development (R&D) to address aging and reliability concerns with the legacy instrumentation and control and related information systems of the U.S. LWR fleet. In this effort, the application of human factors engineering (HFE) provides an important role in ensuring new digital plant technologies enable broad innovation and business improvement with continued operational safety. Evaluation is a key activity in HFE, which often occurs iteratively through the system design lifecycle. While qualitative methods are important in collecting information of how users perform tasks through observations, quantitative methods are equally important in assessing system design based on performance. In collecting and analyzing this quantitative data, there are notable challenges in the nuclear HFE domain that may threaten the validity and reliability of the inferences made in these studies. Notable challenges include small sample size and limited resources, large error variance and small effect size, an “adding test features to losing degrees of freedom” dilemma, non-normal distribution, and heterogeneity of variance. The results in control room usability studies are often statistically non-significant, which makes it hard to interpret. This work discusses these challenges across different scientific viewpoints and provides real-world examples of these challenges in practice. Collectively, the objective of this work is to position these challenges to the larger data science community as a means of identifying future opportunities to address these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep compressed seismic learning for fast location and moment tensor inferences with natural and induced seismicity

Fast detection and characterization of seismic sources is crucial for decision-making and warning systems that monitor natural and induced seismicity. However, besides the laying out of ever denser monitoring networks of seismic instruments, the incorporation of new sensor technologies such as Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) further challenges our processing capabilities to deliver short turnaround answers from seismic monitoring. In response, this work describes a methodology for the learning of the seismological parameters: location and moment tensor from compressed seismic records. In this method, data dimensionality is reduced by applying a general encoding protocol derived from the principles of compressive sensing. The data in compressed form is then fed directly to a convolutional neural network that outputs fast predictions of the seismic source parameters. Thus, the proposed methodology can not only expedite data transmission from the field to the processing center, but also remove the decompression overhead that would be required for the application of traditional processing methods. An autoencoder is also explored as an equivalent alternative to perform the same job. We observe that the CS-based compression requires only a fraction of the computing power, time, data and expertise required to design and train an autoencoder to perform the same task. Implementation of the CS-method with a continuous flow of data together with generalization of the principles to other applications such as classification are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Gaussian Random Field Sampling for Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Coupling Stochastic Partial Differential Equation and the Karhunen–Loève Decomposition

This work introduces structure preserving hierarchical decompositions for sampling Gaussian random fields (GRFs) within the context of multilevel Bayesian inference in high-dimensional space. Existing scalable hierarchical sampling methods, such as those based on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), often reduce the dimensionality of the sample space at the cost of accuracy of inference. Other approaches, such that those based on Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions, offer sample space dimensionality reduction but sacrifice GRF representation accuracy and ergodicity of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler and are computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. The proposed method integrates the dimensionality reduction capabilities of KL expansions with the scalability of SPDE-based sampling, thereby providing a robust, unified framework for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification (UQ) that is scalable and accurate, preserves ergodicity, and offers dimensionality reduction of the sample space. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from the geometric multigrid hierarchy. By constructing a hierarchical decomposition that maintains the covariance structure across the levels in the hierarchy, the approach enables efficient coarse-to-fine sampling while ensuring that all samples are drawn from the desired distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a benchmark subsurface flow problem, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving computational efficiency and statistical accuracy. Furthermore, our proposed technique is more efficient and accurate and displays better convergence properties than existing methods for high-dimensional Bayesian inference problems.

Gaussian random fields↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Inferring Nucleon Gravitational Form Factors via Near-Threshold 𝐽/𝜓 Photoproduction

With Bayesian inference, we investigate the impact of recent near-threshold 𝐽/𝜓 production measurements by the 𝐽/𝜓⁢007 experiment and GlueX Collaboration on the extraction of proton gravitational form factors. We apply the generalized parton distribution framework at the next to leading order and demonstrate a stable expansion for the near-threshold kinematics. We find that the experimental constraints are in good agreement with the state-of-the-art lattice simulations, where negative 𝐶 𝑞 ⁡(𝑡) and 𝐶 𝑔 ⁡(𝑡) are strongly preferred. This highlights a great potential to extract them from future high-precision experiments.

QCD phenomenology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Photon temporal-mode readout for inference of neutron star merger remnant gravitational waves

Gravitational waves emitted after neutron star binary coalescences and the information they carry about dense matter are a high-priority target for next-generation detectors. Even though such detectors are expected to observe millions of signals, detectable postmerger emission will remain rare. Here, in this work, we explore postmerger detectability and inference through an alternative detector readout scheme for data dominated by quantum-noise, which is the case above 1 kHz; photon-counting. In such a readout, signals and noise become quantized into discrete distributions corresponding to the detection of single photons measured in a chosen basis of modes. Through simulated data, we demonstrate that photon counting can be efficient even for weak signals. We find ∼1 in 100 signals with a postmerger signal-to-noise ratio of 0.2 can result in a single photon and thus be detected. Furthermore, after 2 ×10 4 signals—equivalent to 10 −2 to 1.5 years of observation—photon counting results in a twofold improvement in the measurement of the radius of a 1.6⁢𝑀 ⊙ neutron star. Constraints can be further tightened if the detector classical noise is reduced. Photon counting offers a promising alternative to traditional homodyne readout techniques for extracting information from low signal-to-noise ratio postmerger signals.

gravitational wave detection↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncovering dark matter density profiles in dwarf galaxies with graph neural networks

Dwarf galaxies are small, dark-matter-dominated galaxies, some of which are embedded within the Milky Way. Their lack of baryonic matter (e.g., stars and gas) makes them perfect test beds for probing the properties of dark matter—understanding the spatial dark matter distribution in these systems can be used to constrain microphysical dark matter interactions that influence the formation and evolution of structures in our Universe. Here, we introduce a new method that leverages simulation-based inference and graph-based machine learning in order to infer the dark matter density profiles of dwarf galaxies from observable kinematics of stars gravitationally bound to these systems. Our approach aims to address some of the limitations of established methods based on dynamical Jeans modeling. We show that this novel method can place stronger constraints on dark matter profiles and, consequently, has the potential to weigh in on some of the ongoing puzzles associated with the small-scale structure of dark matter halos, such as the core-cusp discrepancy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Isospin dependence of the nuclear EMC effect from a global QCD analysis

We perform a new global QCD analysis of unpolarized parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the nucleon from proton, deuteron, and A = 3 data, including recent measurements of He 3 / D and H 3 / D cross section ratios from the MARATHON experiment at Jefferson Lab. Simultaneously inferring the PDFs and nucleon off-shell corrections allows both to be determined consistently, without theoretical assumptions about the isospin dependence of nuclear effects. The analysis provides strong evidence for the need of nucleon off-shell corrections to describe the A = 3 data, with large isoscalar and a suggestion of nonzero isovector contributions in A ≤ 3 nuclei. We find that the extracted EMC ratios of nuclear to nucleon structure functions for A = 2 and 3 differ from those naively extrapolated from heavy nuclei down to low A .

Cocuzza, C. [William & Mary] (ORCID:00000003492292↗
DOE OSTI2026

Iterative HOMER with uncertainties

We present iHOMER, an iterative version of the HOMER method to extract Lund fragmentation functions from experimental data. Through iterations, we address the information gap between latent and observable phase spaces and systematically remove bias. To quantify uncertainties on the inferred weights, we use a combination of Bayesian neural networks and uncertainty-aware regression. We find that the combination of iterations and uncertainty quantification produces well-calibrated weights that accurately reproduce the data distribution. A parametric closure test shows that the iteratively learned fragmentation function is compatible with the true fragmentation function.

Butter, Anja [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany); Sorbonne↗
DOE OSTI2020

First Images of the Protoplanetary Disk around PDS 201

Scattered light imaging has revealed nearly a dozen circumstellar disks around young Herbig Ae/Be stars—enabling studies of structures in the upper disk layers as potential signs of ongoing planet formation. We present the first images of the disk around the variable Herbig Ae star PDS 201 (V* V351 Ori) and an analysis of the images and spectral energy distribution through 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations and forward modeling. The disk is detected in three data sets with the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer/Large Binocular Telescope mid-infrared camera at the Large Binocular Telescope, including direct observations in the Ks and L′ filters, and an L′ observation with the 360° vector apodizing phase plate coronagraph. The scattered light disk extends to a very large radius of ∼250 au, which places it among the largest of such disks. Exterior to the disk, we establish detection limits on substellar companions down to ∼5 M {sub Jup} at ≳1.″5 (≳500 au), assuming the Baraffe et al. models. The images show a radial gap extending to ∼0.″4 (∼140 au at a distance of 340 pc) that is also evident in the spectral energy distribution. The large gap is a possible signpost of multiple high-mass giant planets at orbital distances (∼60–100 au) that are unusually massive and widely separated compared to those of planet populations previously inferred from protoplanetary disk substructures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗