SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “distributed computing methodologies”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2011

Development of the ISS EMU SPEEDR

The Self Powered EVA EMU Data Recorder (SPEEDR) is an FPGA (Field-programmable gate array) based device designed to collect high-rate EMU (Extravehicular Mobility Unit) PLSS (Primary Life Support Subsystem) data for download at a later time. The existing EMU PLSS data down-link capability during EVA is one data packet every 2 minutes and is subject to bad packets or loss of signal. High-rate PLSS data is generated by the ECWS (Enhanced Caution and Warning System) but is not normally captured or distributed. Access to high-rate data will increase the capability of EMU anomaly resolution team to pinpoint issues remotely, saving crew time by reducing required call-down Q&A and on-orbit diagnostic activities. With no Shuttle flights post FY11, and potentially limited down-mass capability, the ISS crew and ground support personnel will have to be capable of on-orbit operations to maintain, diagnose, repair, and return to service EMU hardware, possibly through 2028. Collecting high-rate EMU PLSS data during both IVA (Intravehicular Activity) and EVA (Extravehicular Activity) operations will provide trending analysis for life extension and/or predictive performance. The SPEEDR concept has generated interest as a tool/technology that could be used for other ISS subsystems or future exploration-class space suits where hardware reliability/availability is critical and low/variable bandwidth may require "store then forward" methodology. Preliminary work in FY11 produced a functional prototype consisting of an FPGA evaluation board, custom memory/interface circuit board, and custom software. The SPEEDR concept includes a stand-alone battery that is recharged by a computer USB (Universal Serial Bus) port while data is being downloaded.

Bernard. Craig↗

DOE OSTI2023

Direct Numerical Simulation of Transitional and Turbulent Flows Over Multi-Scale Surface Roughness—Part I: Methodology and Challenges

Abstract High-fidelity simulation of transitional and turbulent flows over multi-scale surface roughness presents several challenges. For instance, the complex and irregular geometrical nature of surface roughness makes it impractical to employ conforming structured grids, commonly adopted in large-scale numerical simulations due to their high computational efficiency. One possible solution to overcome this problem is offered by immersed boundary methods, which allow wall boundary conditions to be enforced on grids that do not conform to the geometry of the solid boundary. To this end, a three-dimensional, second-order accurate boundary data immersion method (BDIM) is adopted. A novel mapping algorithm that can be applied to general three-dimensional surfaces is presented, together with a newly developed data-capturing methodology to extract and analyze on-surface flow quantities of interest. A rigorous procedure to compute gradient quantities such as the wall shear stress and the heat flux on complex non-conforming geometries is also introduced. The new framework is validated by performing a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of fully developed turbulent channel flow over sinusoidal egg-carton roughness in a minimal-span domain. For this canonical case, the averaged streamwise velocity profiles are compared against results from the literature obtained with a body-fitted grid. General guidelines on the BDIM resolution requirements for multi-scale roughness simulation are given. Momentum and energy balance methods are used to validate the calculation of the overall skin friction and heat transfer at the wall. The BDIM is then employed to investigate the effect of irregular homogeneous surface roughness on the performance of an LS-89 high-pressure turbine blade at engine-relevant conditions using DNS. This is the first application of the BDIM to realize multi-scale roughness for transitional flow in transonic conditions in the context of high-pressure turbines. The methodology adopted to generate the desired roughness distribution and to apply it to the reference blade geometry is introduced. The results are compared to the case of an equivalent smooth blade.

Engineering↗

NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic material strength degradation model for Inconel 718 components subjected to high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue effects

This report presents the results of both the fifth and sixth year effort of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). The research included on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for five variables, namely, high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using an updated version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of high-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue was performed. Then using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS94, a second sensitivity study including the effect of low-cycle mechanical fatigue, as well as, the three previous effects was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Bast, Callie C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust scalable initialization for Bayesian variational inference with multi-modal Laplace approximations

Predictive modeling typically relies on Bayesian model calibration to provide uncertainty quantification. Variational inference utilizing fully independent (“mean-field”) Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions. This simplification is attractive since the number of variational parameters grows only linearly with the number of unknown model parameters. However, the resulting diagonal covariance structure and unimodal behavior can be too restrictive to provide useful approximations of intractable Bayesian posteriors that exhibit highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors for these problems can be obtained by considering the family of Gaussian mixtures. Gaussian mixtures are capable of capturing multiple modes and approximating any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy, while maintaining some analytical tractability. Unfortunately, variational inference using Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. The existence of multiple local minima due to strong nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference present additional complications, These challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and computational scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with a global optimization stage in model parameter space. In this step, local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace approximation. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. The robustness and scalability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through application to an ensemble of synthetic tests using high-dimensional, multimodal probability density functions. Here, the practical aspects of the approach are demonstrated with inversion problems in structural dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Modified Wall Matching Treatment to Account for Local Solid to Fluid Thermal Coupling

The wall-matching methodology of Wilcox is modified to include a solid-wall, thermal-conduction model. This coupled fluid-thermal-structure model is derived assuming that the wall thermal-structure behavior is locally one-dimensional and that structural deformations, due to thermally induced stresses, are not significant. The one-dimensional coupled fluid-thermal-structure model is derived such that the wall temperature is removed as an independent boundary condition variable. The one-dimensional coupled fluid-thermal-structure model is also derived for the general case of an arbitrary mixture of thermally prefect gases and a wall of arbitrary thickness and conductivity by using a compressible, streamwise-pressure-gradient-corrected, wall-matching function and Fourier's law of heat conduction. The resulting model was implemented in the VULCAN CFD code as a new boundary condition type. VULCAN was then used to simulate a two-dimensional Mach 6 wind tunnel facility nozzle flow to demonstrate/validate the one-dimensional coupled fluid-thermal-structure model. The nozzle internal-wall surface temperature and heat transfer distributions computed using the one-dimensional coupled fluid-thermal-structure model are compared to wall temperature and heat transfer distributions from an iterative multi-dimensional analysis obtained by coupling the VULCAN CFD code and the MSC/NASTRAN-thermal code. The one-dimensional coupled fluid-thermal-structure model analysis is shown to be very robust and in excellent agreement with the multi-dimensional iteratively coupled analysis. It is also shown that the one-dimensional analysis can be used as an initial guess for the multi-dimensional iteratively coupled analysis.

White, Jeffery A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Modified Wall Matching Treatment to Account for Local Solid to Fluid Thermal Coupling

White, Jeffery A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Structural Design Exploration of an Electric Powered Multi-Propulsor Wing Configuration

Advancements in aircraft electric propulsion may enable an expanded operational envelope for electrically powered vehicles compared to their internal combustion engine counterparts. High aspect ratio wings provide additional lift and drag reduction for a proposed multi-propulsor design, however, the challenge is to reduce the weight of wing structures while maintaining adequate structural and aeroelastic margins. Design exploration using a conventional design-and-build philosophy coupled with a finite element method (FEM)-based design of experiments (DOE) strategy are presented to examine high aspect ratio wing structures that have spanwise distributed electric motors. Multiple leading-edge-mounted engine masses presented a challenge to design a wing within acceptable limits for dynamic and aeroelastic stability. Because the first four primary bending eigenmodes of the proposed wing structure are very sensitive to outboard motor placement, safety-of-flight requirements drove the need for multiple spars, rib attachments, and outboard structural reinforcements in the design. Global aeroelasticity became an increasingly important design constraint during the on-going design process, with outboard motor pod flutter ultimately becoming a primary design constraint. Designers successively generated models to examine stress, dynamics, and aeroelasticity concurrently. This research specifically addressed satisfying multi-disciplinary design criteria to generate fluid-structure interaction solution sets, and produced high aspect ratio primary structure designs for the NASA Scalable Convergent Electric Propulsion Technology and Operations Research (SCEPTOR) project in the Aeronautic Research Mission Directorate at NASA. In this paper, a dynamics-driven, quasi-inverse design methodology is presented to address aerodynamic performance goals and structural challenges encountered for the SCEPTOR demonstrator vehicle. These results are compared with a traditional computer aided design based approach.

Moore, James B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Development of the Self-Powered Extravehicular Mobility Unit Extravehicular Activity Data Recorder

The Self-Powered Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Data Recorder (SPEEDR) is a field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based device designed to collect high-rate EMU Primary Life Support Subsystem (PLSS) data for download at a later time. During EVA, the existing EMU PLSS data downlink capability is one data packet every 2 minutes and is subject to bad packets or loss of signal. Higher-rate PLSS data is generated by the Enhanced Caution and Warning System but is not normally captured or distributed. Access to higher-rate data will increase the capability of EMU anomaly resolution team to pinpoint issues remotely, saving crew time by reducing required call-down Q&A and on-orbit diagnostic activities. With no Space Shuttle flights post Fiscal Year 2011 (FY11), and potentially limited down-mass capability, the ISS crew and ground support personnel will have to be capable of on-orbit operations to maintain, diagnose, repair, and return to service EMU hardware, possibly through 2028. Collecting high-rate EMU PLSS data during both intravehicular activity (IVA) and EVA operations will provide trending analysis for life extension and/or predictive performance. The SPEEDR concept has generated interest as a tool/technology that could be used for other International Space Station subsystems or future exploration-class space suits where hardware reliability/availability is critical and low/variable bandwidth may require store then forward methodology. Preliminary work in FY11 produced a functional prototype consisting of an FPGA evaluation board, custom memory/interface circuit board, and custom software. The SPEEDR concept includes a stand-alone battery that is recharged by a computer Universal Serial Bus (USB) port while data are being downloaded.

Bernard, Craig↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of Integrated Safety and Security Models for Comprehensive Reliability and Resiliency Evaluation

The security of the electric grid and supporting energy systems is crucial to national security. One of the complexities in analyzing the security of energy systems is the safety consequences that may result from accidents. For energy systems, the goal is to ensure that they operate as intended and that any consequences are mitigated or prevented. The integration of safety and security is paramount to protecting these systems from attacks and ensuring that large consequences are prevented. This report describes an integrated safety and security methodology to evaluate cybersecurity events that can lead to large consequences. This novel approach first describes how Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) provides a digital causal analysis for Bayesian Networks (BNs). The use of STPA causal analysis provides a systematic approach to constructing BNs that adequately model cyber scenarios that result in consequences. When combined with the technical principles described in Risk-Informed Management of Enterprise Systems (RIMES), a comprehensive risk-informed cybersecurity analysis results that allows decision-makers to prioritize systems that most impact risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

SCUC-DER Integration Report: Integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Using Advanced Unit Commitment Models and DER Aggregation Methodologies

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are continuing to grow due to regulatory, policy, and market shifts, and it needs to be ensured that small DERs are given a level playing field with traditional resources. Legacy market processes such as unit-commitment problems were designed for a power grid consisting largely of centralized power plants. In contrast, DERs consist of many small devices with distinct operating characteristics that may or may not be connected at the transmission interconnection points, limiting their visibility to the independent system operators (ISOs) who operate wholesale electricity markets. This report details the development and initial results from a simulation platform that integrates state-of-the-art security-constrained unit commitment software, detailed feeder models, and a DER aggregator model to quantify potential DER integration issues. Quantitative results to date illustrate potential infeasible scheduling solutions from SCUC when the DERA includes aggregations of energy-limited energy storage resources. Likewise, if aggregations are not penalized for dispatch deviations, they may have incentives to deviate from the SCUC-determined resource schedules. Assumptions about the amount of aggregated demand response resources (DRRs) and the ability of DERAs to follow profit incentives have an important impact – DRRs have significant flexibility and can typically feasibly meet their SCUC schedule, but on the other hand, their profit incentives can cause unscheduled increases in load before and after DRR dispatch. Computation time results on the SCUC solver and simulation platform only show a modest increase in SCUC solution time as the number of DERAs is increased, but results to date only reflect the RTS-GMLC test system; results may show more significant solver slowdown in larger transmission systems. The largest contribution to simulation time is attributed to the DERA offer generation method, which is suggested for future improvements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1999

Dynamics of the Molten Contact Line

The purpose of this program is to develop a basic understanding of how a molten material front spreads over a solid that is below its melting point, arrests, and freezes. Our hope is that the work will contribute toward a scientific knowledge base for certain new applications involving molten droplet deposition, including the "printing" of arbitrary three-dimensional objects by precise deposition of individual molten microdrops that solidify after impact. Little information is available at this time on the capillarity-driven motion and arrest of molten contact line regions. Schiaffino and Sonin investigated the arrest of the contact line of a molten microcrystalline wax spreading over a subcooled solid "target" of the same material. They found that contact line arrest takes place at an apparent liquid contact angle that depends primarily on the Stefan number S=c(T(sub f) -T(sub t)/L based on the temperature difference between the fusion point and the target temperature, and proposed that contact line arrest occurs when the liquid's dynamic contact angle approaches the angle of attack of the solidification front just behind the contact line. They also showed, however, that the conventional continuum equations and boundary conditions have no meaningful solution for this angle. The solidification front angle is determined by the heat flux just behind the contact line, and the heat flux is singular at that point. By comparing experiments with numerical computations, Schiaffino and Sonin estimated that the conventional solidification model must break down within a distance of order 0.1 - 1 microns of the contact line. The physical mechanism for this breakdown is as yet undetermined, and no first-principles theory exists for the contact angle at arrest. Schiaffino and Sonin also presented a framework for understanding how to moderate Weber number molten droplet deposition in terms of similarity laws and experimentation. The study is based on experiments with three molten materials- molten wax on solid wax, water on ice, and mercury on frozen mercury- which between them span a considerable range of the deposition/solidification similarity parameters. Correlations are obtained for the spreading velocity, spreading time scales, the spreading factor (i.e. ratio of deposited drop's final footprint radius and the drop's initial radius), post-spreading liquid oscillation amplitudes and time scales, and bulk solidification time scales. Duthaler carried out an experimental and theoretical investigation of the relationship between the liquid's apparent contact angle and the Capillary number Ca=mu U/sigma based on contact line speed, for molten materials spreading over subcooled solids. This relationship is required for modeling of melt spreading. We have adapted Voinov's methodology to the molten contact line and formulated a theoretical model for the Ca vs. contact angle relationship, based Schiaffino and Sonin#s (1997a,b) wedge-like solidification front model. With the solidification front angle taken from Schiaffino and Sonin, the model is in good agreement with the experimental results for Ca vs. contact angle. Duthaler also extended the experimental investigation of droplet deposition and contact line freezing to more materials, including solder on glass, solder on solder, water on ice, and molten microcrystalline wax on wax. The latter also included tests on inclined targets. Deposition tests have also been done with molten octacosane (C28H58) on various targets. An important objective of our program has been the development of micron-scale sensors for measuring the transient temperature at a point on the substrate surface as a molten contact line moves over it. The expectation is that this temperature history will yield a better understanding of the thermal process in the contact line region. The sensors are of the thermistor type, either 2.5 microns or 1.5 microns square, microfabricated with silicon-based technology on either pure silicon or amorphous silicon dioxide chips. Each chip has 32 sensors distributed on its surface in arrays. The time response is better than 10 ms. At the time of writing, sensor calibration is in progress. Results on thermal transients during contact line passage will be discussed at the conference. While we expect that the data will provide information on the near-contact-line heat transfer process, we also foresee possible problems. First, the spatial resolution of the sensors may be insufficient to resolve the near-contact-line region. Second, the sensors protrude about 0.5 microns above the substrate surface, and may affect the contact line motion. Third, a sensor's temperature history depends on both the heat flux distribution into it from the fusion front and the thermal properties of the substrate below it and the solidified melt between it and the fusion front. The heat flux distribution in the contact line region must therefore be unfolded from computations of the overall system's transient thermal response.

Sonin, Ain A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

Corbetta, M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

stochastic calculus↗

DOE OSTI2021

Defender Policy Evaluation and Resource Allocation against MITRE ATT&CK Data and Evaluations

Protecting against multi-step attacks of uncertain duration and timing forces defenders into an indefinite, always ongoing, resource-intensive response. To effectively allocate resources, a defender must be able to analyze multi-step attacks under assumption of constantly allocating resources against an uncertain stream of potentially undetected attacks. To achieve this goal, we present a novel methodology that applies a game-theoretic approach to the attack, attacker, and defender data derived from MITRE´s ATT&CK ® Framework. Time to complete attack steps is drawn from a probability distribution determined by attacker and defender strategies and capabilities. This constraints attack success parameters and enables comparing different defender resource allocation strategies. By approximating attacker-defender games as Markov processes, we represent the attacker-defender interaction, estimate the attack success parameters, determine the effects of attacker and defender strategies, and maximize opportunities for defender strategy improvements against an uncertain stream of attacks. This novel representation and analysis of multi-step attacks enables defender policy optimization and resource allocation, which we illustrate using the data from MITRE´ s APT3 ATT&CK ® Framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2016

Modeling the Swift Bat Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift / BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of greater than or equal to 97 percent (less than or equal to 3 percent error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux, which has an accuracy of 89.6 percent (10.4 percent error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of n (sub 0) approaching 0.48 (sup plus 0.41) (sub minus 0.23) per cubic gigaparsecs per year with power-law indices of n (sub 1) approaching 1.7 (sup plus 0.6) (sub minus 0.5) and n (sub 2) approaching minus 5.9 (sup plus 5.7) (sub minus 0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z (redshift) (sub 1) approaching 6.8 (sup plus 2.8) (sub minus 3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting.

gamma-ray burst: general â€“ gamma-rays: general â↗

NASA NTRS2013

Work Practice Simulation of Complex Human-Automation Systems in Safety Critical Situations: The Brahms Generalized berlingen Model

The transition from the current air traffic system to the next generation air traffic system will require the introduction of new automated systems, including transferring some functions from air traffic controllers to on-board automation. This report describes a new design verification and validation (V&V) methodology for assessing aviation safety. The approach involves a detailed computer simulation of work practices that includes people interacting with flight-critical systems. The research is part of an effort to develop new modeling and verification methodologies that can assess the safety of flight-critical systems, system configurations, and operational concepts. The 2002 Ueberlingen mid-air collision was chosen for analysis and modeling because one of the main causes of the accident was one crew's response to a conflict between the instructions of the air traffic controller and the instructions of TCAS, an automated Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System on-board warning system. It thus furnishes an example of the problem of authority versus autonomy. It provides a starting point for exploring authority/autonomy conflict in the larger system of organization, tools, and practices in which the participants' moment-by-moment actions take place. We have developed a general air traffic system model (not a specific simulation of Überlingen events), called the Brahms Generalized Ueberlingen Model (Brahms-GUeM). Brahms is a multi-agent simulation system that models people, tools, facilities/vehicles, and geography to simulate the current air transportation system as a collection of distributed, interactive subsystems (e.g., airports, air-traffic control towers and personnel, aircraft, automated flight systems and air-traffic tools, instruments, crew). Brahms-GUeM can be configured in different ways, called scenarios, such that anomalous events that contributed to the Überlingen accident can be modeled as functioning according to requirements or in an anomalous condition, as occurred during the accident. Brahms-GUeM thus implicitly defines a class of scenarios, which include as an instance what occurred at Überlingen. Brahms-GUeM is a modeling framework enabling "what if" analysis of alternative work system configurations and thus facilitating design of alternative operations concepts. It enables subsequent adaption (reusing simulation components) for modeling and simulating NextGen scenarios. This project demonstrates that BRAHMS provides the capacity to model the complexity of air transportation systems, going beyond idealized and simple flights to include for example the interaction of pilots and ATCOs. The research shows clearly that verification and validation must include the entire work system, on the one hand to check that mechanisms exist to handle failures of communication and alerting subsystems and/or failures of people to notice, comprehend, or communicate problematic (unsafe) situations; but also to understand how people must use their own judgment in relating fallible systems like TCAS to other sources of information and thus to evaluate how the unreliability of automation affects system safety. The simulation shows in particular that distributed agents (people and automated systems) acting without knowledge of each others' actions can create a complex, dynamic system whose interactive behavior is unexpected and is changing too quickly to comprehend and control.

complex systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1999

CARES/Life Ceramics Durability Evaluation Software Enhanced for Cyclic Fatigue

The CARES/Life computer program predicts the probability of a monolithic ceramic component's failure as a function of time in service. The program has many features and options for materials evaluation and component design. It couples commercial finite element programs--which resolve a component's temperature and stress distribution--to reliability evaluation and fracture mechanics routines for modeling strength-limiting defects. The capability, flexibility, and uniqueness of CARES/Life have attracted many users representing a broad range of interests and has resulted in numerous awards for technological achievements and technology transfer. Recent work with CARES/Life was directed at enhancing the program s capabilities with regards to cyclic fatigue. Only in the last few years have ceramics been recognized to be susceptible to enhanced degradation from cyclic loading. To account for cyclic loads, researchers at the NASA Lewis Research Center developed a crack growth model that combines the Power Law (time-dependent) and the Walker Law (cycle-dependent) crack growth models. This combined model has the characteristics of Power Law behavior (decreased damage) at high R ratios (minimum load/maximum load) and of Walker law behavior (increased damage) at low R ratios. In addition, a parameter estimation methodology for constant-amplitude, steady-state cyclic fatigue experiments was developed using nonlinear least squares and a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. This methodology is used to give best estimates of parameter values from cyclic fatigue specimen rupture data (usually tensile or flexure bar specimens) for a relatively small number of specimens. Methodology to account for runout data (unfailed specimens over the duration of the experiment) was also included.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗