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At least 523 records · Page 29

Integrating Analytical Solutions and U-Net Model for Predicting Groundwater Contaminant Plumes in Pump-and-Treat Systems

Pump-and-treat (P&T) is a common technique for groundwater remediation involving the extraction and treatment of contaminated water above ground. Optimizing the design and operation of the P&T well network is essential for maximizing the system’s effectiveness and efficiency. However, this optimization often necessitates many model evaluations, leading to computationally demanding tasks. This study introduces a novel approach that integrates analytical solutions for groundwater dynamics with the U-Net (Ronneberger et al., 2015) deep learning framework to predict groundwater contaminant plume migration under dynamic pumping conditions. By incorporating the Thiem equation (Thiem, 1906) into the input preprocessing, the U-Net model transforms sparse well data into a continuous spatial field that captures the hydraulic impacts of pumping activities. This integration enables the model to leverage both deep learning capabilities and classical physics-based groundwater theories, enhancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. These advancements can facilitate rapid, large-scale evaluations of P&T optimization simulations, allowing for timely and effective decision-making in well placement and system management. We demonstrate the model's robust performance across both simplified transient 2D models and a more complex 3D heterogeneous site model at the 200 West P&T facility at the Hanford Site. The U-Net-based model offers substantial computational advantages, reducing simulation times significantly compared to full physics-based models and providing a powerful tool for rapid site evaluation and P&T system optimization, such as evaluating alternative P&T well network designs. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced machine learning models to significantly enhance the efficiency and sustainability of groundwater remediation efforts, offering a novel application of U-Net architecture in environmental science.

Pump-and-treat↗

Control of Systems With Slow Actuators Using Time Scale Separation

This paper addresses the problem of controlling a nonlinear plant with a slow actuator using singular perturbation method. For the known plant-actuator cascaded system the proposed scheme achieves tracking of a given reference model with considerably less control demand than would otherwise result when using conventional design techniques. This is the consequence of excluding the small parameter from the actuator dynamics via time scale separation. The resulting tracking error is within the order of this small parameter. For the unknown system the adaptive counterpart is developed based on the prediction model, which is driven towards the reference model by the control design. It is proven that the prediction model tracks the reference model with an error proportional to the small parameter, while the prediction error converges to zero. The resulting closed-loop system with all prediction models and adaptive laws remains stable. The benefits of the approach are demonstrated in simulation studies and compared to conventional control approaches.

Stepanyan, Vehram↗

Performance of an Optimized Eta Model Code on the Cray T3E and a Network of PCs

In the year 2001, NASA will launch the satellite TRIANA that will be the first Earth observing mission to provide a continuous, full disk view of the sunlit Earth. As a part of the HPCC Program at NASA GSFC, we have started a project whose objectives are to develop and implement a 3D cloud data assimilation system, by combining TRIANA measurements with model simulation, and to produce accurate statistics of global cloud coverage as an important element of the Earth's climate. For simulation of the atmosphere within this project we are using the NCEP/NOAA operational Eta model. In order to compare TRIANA and the Eta model data on approximately the same grid without significant downscaling, the Eta model will be integrated at a resolution of about 15 km. The integration domain (from -70 to +70 deg in latitude and 150 deg in longitude) will cover most of the sunlit Earth disc and will continuously rotate around the globe following TRIANA. The cloud data assimilation is supposed to run and produce 3D clouds on a near real-time basis. Such a numerical setup and integration design is very ambitious and computationally demanding. Thus, though the Eta model code has been very carefully developed and its computational efficiency has been systematically polished during the years of operational implementation at NCEP, the current MPI version may still have problems with memory and efficiency for the TRIANA simulations. Within this work, we optimize a parallel version of the Eta model code on a Cray T3E and a network of PCs (theHIVE) in order to improve its overall efficiency. Our optimization procedure consists of introducing dynamically allocated arrays to reduce the size of static memory, and optimizing on a single processor by splitting loops to limit the number of streams. All the presented results are derived using an integration domain centered at the equator, with a size of 60 x 60 deg, and with horizontal resolutions of 1/2 and 1/3 deg, respectively. In accompanying charts we report the elapsed time, the speedup and the Mflops as a function of the number of processors for the non-optimized version of the code on the T3E and theHIVE. The large amount of communication required for model integration explains its poor performance on theHIVE. Our initial implementation of the dynamic memory allocation has contributed to about 12% reduction of memory but has introduced a 3% overhead in computing time. This overhead was removed by performing loop splitting in some of the high demanding subroutines. When the Eta code is fully optimized in order to meet the memory requirement for TRIANA simulations, a non-negligeable overhead may appear that may seriously affect the efficiency of the code. To alleviate this problem, we are considering implementation of a new algorithm for the horizontal advection that is computationally less expensive, and also a new approach for marching in time.

Kouatchou, Jules↗

Modelling and analysis of nuclear reactor system coupled with a liquid metal battery

Traditionally, nuclear power plants in the U.S. provide baseload power to the power grid because they have less flexibility for ramping their output power than natural gas peaking plants. However, achieving climate goals to reduce the consumption of fossil‐based natural gas places pressure on nuclear power plants and other power generators to ramp up their power output to balance grid generation with demand. This paper presents the modelling and performance analysis of a nuclear reactor system (NRS) coupled to a liquid‐metal battery (LMB) to improve its dynamic response and enable its black start capability. The NRS and LMB thermal behaviour are modelled in Dymola, while the electrical dynamics of the LMB and power grid are modelled in RTDS‐RSCAD. Both simulation platforms are coupled and share their thermal and electrical data using a Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) communication protocol. The dynamic performance of the NRS‐LMB integration is tested on the IEEE 9 bus, which demonstrates its ability to respond and provide frequency and voltage regulation. The black start capability of the NRS‐LMB is also evaluated by simulating a grid outage and using the LMB to supply the auxiliary loads required to bring the NRS back online as soon as possible. The results show that coupling an NRS to an LMB improves the system dynamic performance and enables it to black start after being disconnected from the grid for several days.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Performance Analysis of Cloud Computing Architectures Using Discrete Event Simulation

Cloud computing offers the economic benefit of on-demand resource allocation to meet changing enterprise computing needs. However, the flexibility of cloud computing is disadvantaged when compared to traditional hosting in providing predictable application and service performance. Cloud computing relies on resource scheduling in a virtualized network-centric server environment, which makes static performance analysis infeasible. We developed a discrete event simulation model to evaluate the overall effectiveness of organizations in executing their workflow in traditional and cloud computing architectures. The two part model framework characterizes both the demand using a probability distribution for each type of service request as well as enterprise computing resource constraints. Our simulations provide quantitative analysis to design and provision computing architectures that maximize overall mission effectiveness. We share our analysis of key resource constraints in cloud computing architectures and findings on the appropriateness of cloud computing in various applications.

Stocker, John C.↗

Assessing Ecosystem Service Provision Under Climate Change to Support Conservation and Development Planning in Myanmar

Inclusion of ecosystem services (ES) information into national-scale development and climate adaptation planning has yet to become common practice, despite demand from decision makers. Identifying where ES originate and to whom the benefits flowunder current and future climate conditionsis especially critical in rapidly developing countries, where the risk of ES loss is high. Here, using Myanmar as a case study, we assess where and how ecosystems provide key benefits to the countrys people and infrastructure. We model the supply of and demand for sediment retention, dry-season baseflows, flood risk reduction and coastal storm protection from multiple beneficiaries. We find that locations currently providing the greatest amount of services are likely to remain important under the range of climate conditions considered, demonstrating their importance in planning for climate resilience. Overlap between priority areas for ES provision and biodiversity conservation is higher than expected by chance overall, but the areas important for multiple ES are underrepresented in currently designated protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas. Our results are contributing to development planning in Myanmar, and our approach could be extended to other contexts where there is demand for national-scale natural capital information to shape development plans and policies

Climate change↗

Connected Vehicle-Based Traffic Signal Coordination

This study presents a connected vehicles (CVs)-based traffic signal optimization framework for a coordinated arterial corridor. The signal optimization and coordination problem are first formulated in a centralized scheme as a mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP). The optimal phase durations and offsets are solved together by minimizing fuel consumption and travel time considering an individual vehicle’s trajectories. Due to the complexity of the model, we decompose the problem into two levels: an intersection level to optimize phase durations using dynamic programming (DP), and a corridor level to optimize the offsets of all intersections. In order to solve the two-level model, a prediction-based solution technique is developed. The proposed models are tested using traffic simulation under various scenarios. Compared with the traditional actuated signal timing and coordination plan, the signal timing plans generated by solving the MINLP and the two-level model can reasonably improve the signal control performance. When considering varies vehicle types under high demand levels, the proposed two-level model reduced the total system cost by 3.8% comparing to baseline actuated plan. MINLP reduced the system cost by 5.9%. It also suggested that coordination scheme was beneficial to corridors with relatively high demand levels. For intersections with major and minor street, coordination conducted for major street had little impacts on the vehicles at the minor street.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An interpretable machine learning framework to understand bikeshare demand before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City

In recent years, bikesharing systems have become increasingly popular as affordable and sustainable micromobility solutions. Advanced mathematical models such as machine learning are required to generate good forecasts for bikeshare demand. Here, this study proposes a machine learning modeling framework to estimate hourly demand in a large-scale bikesharing system. Two Extreme Gradient Boosting models were developed: one using data from before the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2019 to February 2020) and the other using data from during the pandemic (March 2020 to February 2021). Furthermore, a model interpretation framework based on SHapley Additive exPlanations was implemented. Based on the relative importance of the explanatory variables considered in this study, share of female users and hour of day were the two most important explanatory variables in both models. However, the month variable had higher importance in the pandemic model than in the pre-pandemic model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Thermal modeling of directed energy deposition additive manufacturing using graph theory

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop, apply and validate a mesh-free graph theory–based approach for rapid thermal modeling of the directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM) process. Design/methodology/approach: Here, the authors develop a novel mesh-free graph theory–based approach to predict the thermal history of the DED process. Subsequently, the authors validated the graph theory predicted temperature trends using experimental temperature data for DED of titanium alloy parts (Ti-6Al-4V). Temperature trends were tracked by embedding thermocouples in the substrate. The DED process was simulated using the graph theory approach, and the thermal history predictions were validated based on the data from the thermocouples. Findings: The temperature trends predicted by the graph theory approach have mean absolute percentage error of approximately 11% and root mean square error of 23°C when compared to the experimental data. Moreover, the graph theory simulation was obtained within 4 min using desktop computing resources, which is less than the build time of 25 min. By comparison, a finite element–based model required 136 min to converge to similar level of error. Research limitations/implications: This study uses data from fixed thermocouples when printing thin-wall DED parts. In the future, the authors will incorporate infrared thermal camera data from large parts. Practical implications: The DED process is particularly valuable for near-net shape manufacturing, repair and remanufacturing applications. However, DED parts are often afflicted with flaws, such as cracking and distortion. In DED, flaw formation is largely governed by the intensity and spatial distribution of heat in the part during the process, often referred to as the thermal history. Accordingly, fast and accurate thermal models to predict the thermal history are necessary to understand and preclude flaw formation. Originality/value: This paper presents a new mesh-free computational thermal modeling approach based on graph theory (network science) and applies it to DED. The approach eschews the tedious and computationally demanding meshing aspect of finite element modeling and allows rapid simulation of the thermal history in additive manufacturing. Although the graph theory has been applied to thermal modeling of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF), there are distinct phenomenological differences between DED and LPBF that necessitate substantial modifications to the graph theory approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evidence of Residential Demand Flexibility in a 46 Townhome Neighborhood

Demand response is an important emerging part of smart grids and it has been well researched from the theoretical and modeling perspectives. The empirical evidence on demand response is scarce, resulting in a limited understanding of many important aspects of demand response, including latency, cycling, and overrides - including acceptable impacts to customer comfort, convenience, and productivity in the new remote work era. We attempt to provide additional information to address this knowledge gap by sharing early results from the 46-townhome testbed located in Atlanta, GA. We report our findings from the first three months of experimental work. These focus on the delays associated with device status updates, characteristics of user overrides of control signals, and the share of devices available for demand response. We also provide some information about the duration of demand response events and a discussion of some properties of the testbed neighborhood.

Tsybina, Eve↗

Evaluating performance of different generative adversarial networks for large-scale building power demand prediction

We report as an unsupervised-learning data-driven model, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently attracted a lot of attention for various applications. There is potential to apply GANs for large-scale building power demand prediction, which is needed for power grid operation. However, there are many GAN variations and it is unclear which GAN is suitable for this application. To answer this question, this paper identifies five promising GANs (Original GAN, cGAN, SGAN, InfoGAN, and ACGAN) and evaluates their performance for predicting building power demand at a large scale. Physics-based building energy models are developed to generate training and reference data. A new evaluation indicator that combines accuracy and reproducibility is proposed to evaluate the performance of different GANs in predicting building power demand. The results show that SGAN and InfoGAN are not suitable because they cannot control the number of generated building samples for different building types. The prediction performance among the Original GAN, cGAN, and ACGAN can vary depending on training sample sizes and number of building types. If the training sample size is sufficiently large, Original GAN and cGAN can predict building power demand more accurately than ACGAN with the same number of samples. If training samples are limited, Original GAN provides better accuracy than cGAN and ACGAN. When the number of building types increase, the prediction accuracy increases for cGAN, decreases for ACGAN, and remains the same for Original GAN. As a result, cGAN and Original GAN are recommended for large-scale building power demand prediction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Role of Subsurface Flow on Evapotranspiration: A Global Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract Water resources are impacted by water‐energy balance fluxes at the land surface, most notably evapotranspiration ( ET ), the largest component of surface energy balance. While integrated hydrologic models show promise in quantifying the nonlinear dynamics at this interface, the model results are plagued by parametric uncertainties. Given the high computational demand of running multiple parameter spaces of these models, little is known about how these uncertainties propagate into land surface processes. In this work, we perform a global sensitivity analysis by computing Sobol and AMAE indices using a surrogate model constructed with a polynomial chaos expansion to assess the impacts of the subsurface physical properties on ET . We do so by modeling a semisynthetic test case. Our results show that the effects of vertical hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and the water retention curve parameter Van Genuchten α mainly control ET . However, we note that while evaporation ( E ) shows behavior similar to the ET with high sensitivity to the parameters controlling the flow in the unsaturated zone, transpiration ( T ) is very sensitive to the saturated zone parameters and groundwater flow, especially during periods without rain. Our results also show that heterogeneities in land cover impact the flow in the saturated zone. Furthermore, our work demonstrates that reduced‐order models can be developed to make integrated models more accessible for rigorous sensitivity analyses and calibration purposes.

Maina, Fadji Zaouna↗

Development of the tangent linear and adjoint models of the global online chemical transport model MPAS-CO 2 v7.3

We describe the development of the tangent linear (TL) and adjoint models of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-CO 2 transport model, which is a global online chemical transport model developed upon the non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A). The primary goal is to make the model system a valuable research tool for investigating atmospheric carbon transport and inverse modeling. First, we develop the TL code, encompassing all CO 2 transport processes within the MPAS-CO 2 forward model. Then, we construct the adjoint model using a combined strategy involving re-calculation and storage of the essential meteorological variables needed for CO 2 transport. This strategy allows the adjoint model to undertake a long-period integration with moderate memory demands. To ensure accuracy, the TL and adjoint models undergo vigorous verifications through a series of standard tests. The adjoint model, through backward-in-time integration, calculates the sensitivity of atmospheric CO 2 observations to surface CO 2 fluxes and the initial atmospheric CO 2 mixing ratio. To demonstrate the utility of the newly developed adjoint model, we conduct simulations for two types of atmospheric CO 2 observations, namely the tower-based in situ CO 2 mixing ratio and satellite-derived column-averaged CO 2 mixing ratio (X CO 2 ). A comparison between the sensitivity to surface flux calculated by the MPAS-CO 2 adjoint model with its counterpart from CarbonTracker–Lagrange (CT-L) reveals a spatial agreement but notable magnitude differences. These differences, particularly evident for X CO 2 , might be attributed to the two model systems' differences in the simulation configuration, spatial resolution, and treatment of vertical mixing processes. Moreover, this comparison highlights the substantial loss of information in the atmospheric CO 2 observations due to CT-L's spatial domain limitation. Furthermore, the adjoint sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the sensitivities to both surface flux and initial CO 2 conditions spread out throughout the entire Northern Hemisphere within a month. MPAS-CO 2 forward, TL, and adjoint models stand out for their calculation efficiency and variable-resolution capability, making them competitive in computational cost. In conclusion, the successful development of the MPAS-CO 2 TL and adjoint models, and their integration into the MPAS-CO 2 system, establish the possibility of using MPAS's unique features in atmospheric CO 2 transport sensitivity studies and in inverse modeling with advanced methods such as variational data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CTF Improved Drag Model and Flow Regime Transition Criteria

The demand for accurate prediction of two-phase flow behavior in a boiling water reactor (BWR) requires a comprehensive understanding of flow regime, void fraction, heat transfer, and pressure drop. The CTF subchannel code, which is used for the Thermal/Hydraulic (T/H) solution in the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL)-developed Virtual Environment for Reactor Application (VERA) core simulator, is being further developed for BWR applications. In support of this goal, the present work highlights some of the two-phase closure model developments towards improving the CTF void fraction prediction, especially for subcooled boiling. The drift-flux approach has been well-developed for upward dispersed two-phase flows and proven to be accurate in predicting void fraction in bubbly and slug flow regimes. In this work, these kinematic constitutive relations for the drift-flux velocity have been implemented into CTF to describe the interfacial drag of bubbly flow as an alternative to the existing model for better void fraction prediction. The success of these constitutive relations also relies on a good flow regime map that accounts for flow conditions and channel geometry. A more reliable flow regime transition criteria that account for the flow condition has also been implemented in this study for modeling the flow regime transition criteria. The newly implemented models are shown to give improved void fraction predictions in comparison to experimental data.

Hizoum, Belgacem↗

GPU-friendly surface model for Monte-Carlo detector simulations

The demands for Monte-Carlo simulation are drastically increasing with the Large Hadron Collider’s high-luminosity upgrade, and are expected to exceed the currently available compute resources. At the same time, modern high-performance computing has adopted powerful hardware accelerators, particularly GPUs. The AdePT and Celeritas projects aim to address the demanding computational needs by leveraging these heterogeneous computing architectures. While both have successfully ported realistic detector simulations to GPUs using the VecGeom library, the complexity of geometry modeling emerged as a bottleneck. Thread divergence and high register usage were degrading the GPU performance. Therefore, a new, GPU-friendly surface-based model has been introduced in the VecGeom library that decomposes the divergent code of the 3D primitive solids into simpler and more balanced surface algorithms. In this work, we present the latest developments, focusing on the additions required to efficiently model complex setups like the CMS Phase-2 geometry. This includes memory reduction techniques, and adding accelerating structures for faster traversal.

Diederichs, Severin [CERN]↗

A dynamic model of stress and sustained attention

Arguments are presented that an integrated view of stress and performance must consider the task demanding a sustained attention as a primary source of cognitive stress. A dynamic model is developed on the basis of the concept of adaptability in both physiological and psychological terms, that addresses the effects of stress on vigilance and, potentially, a wide variety of attention-demanding performance tasks. The model provides an insight into the failure of an operator under the driving influences of stress and opens a number of potential avenues through which solutions to the complex challenge of stress and performance might be posed.

Hancock, P. A.↗

Consumer Expectations of Capacity Constrains and Their Effect on the Demand for Multi-Class Air Travel

This paper argues that a consumer's decision on ticket class takes into account the expected likelihood of obtaining a seat in a particular class which, in turn, partially depends on an optimum "transaction cost". Taking into account the preferences of the consumer and the information that the consumer is endowed with, the consumer will select a ticket that includes its own optimal transaction cost. This motivates the inclusion of the capacity constraint as a proxy independent variable for these consumer expectations This then forms the basis of a model of air-travel demand with specific reference to Australia. A censored likelihood function allowing for correlation in the disturbance term across k classes is introduced. The correlation in the disturbances arises as a result of the interdependence of the capacity constraints in k different ticket classes on each flight.

Battersby, Bryn D.↗

Building Energy Modeling Enhancements to Identify Least-Cost Pathways to Net-Zero Carbon Homes: Preprint

Residential grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) can utilize high levels of energy efficiency and demand flexibility to deliver value to occupants, the grid, and society. However, without the ability to analyze, design, and optimize residential GEBs there is a risk that homes will not realize their full potential value as efficient and dynamic resources, which could ultimately lead to higher than necessary energy costs for U.S. households and lower realization of potential energy efficiency and demand flexibility benefits such as increased convenience/automation, thermal comfort, durability, indoor air quality, and resilience. In 2018, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Residential Modeling Team developed a vision for an open source Residential GEB Analytics Platform built within DOE's EnergyPlus and OpenStudio modeling environment that would enable the design and optimization of residential GEBs, including the identification of least-cost pathways to highly energy-efficient and energy-flexible homes (e.g., net zero carbon homes). We created a detailed workplan for the development of new and enhanced residential GEB component-level models for EnergyPlus and OpenStudio needed to progress toward the vision for the analytics platform while delivering near-term benefits to industry. This paper 1) presents the vision for the platform, summarizing the workplan for residential GEB modeling enhancements; 2) highlights significant advancements that have been achieved between 2018 and 2022, including stochastic residential occupancy modeling, flexible water heater modeling, detailed lithium-ion stationary battery modeling, and realistic residential HVAC modeling; and 3) outlines ongoing efforts and next steps toward the full vision for the platform.

building energy modeling↗