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DOE OSTI2023

UNF-ST&DARDS Enhancements for RCCA Data in As-loaded Dual Purpose Cask Models

This report summarizes the work performed to enable detailed modeling of rod cluster control assembly (RCCAs) in dual purpose canisters (DPCs) in as-loaded configurations using the Used Nuclear Fuel – Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS). The goal of this project was to evaluate the reactivity impact that RCCAs have on k eff of DPCs with pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel to potentially use the additional margin in future post-closure criticality safety analysis. This preliminary evaluation determined the number of DPCs that currently require compensatory actions prior to emplacement in a repository because of their high reactivity under post-closure criticality scenarios, which could be made acceptable by including the as-loaded RCCAs as specified in the Unified Database (UDB). This report briefly describes the modeling methods currently used within UNF-ST&DARDS and the modifications made to automate inclusion of the as-loaded RCCAs in the DPCs for post-closure criticality calculations for the loss of neutron absorber (NA) scenarios, or NA models. For the Zion site, the loss of basket scenarios, or degraded basket (DB) models, are also included. Discussion is also provided regarding the UDB data compared to available site-specific loading map data for the sites, which are specifically evaluated herein. This report compares the modifications to a similar evaluation for the Zion by site conducted by Walker as an initial validation. After the partial validation, all existing PWR sites with applicable NA models within the UDB were evaluated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping wall-to-wall fractional cover of Arctic tundra plant functional types in Alaska using 20-m spatial resolution satellite imagery and harmonized plot observations

Estimates of fractional cover (fCover) across given land surfaces are used to assess, and often model, vegetation composition and diversity, which are crucial for understanding the health and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Remote sensing provides a useful means for scaling local, plot-measured fCover estimates to regional scales. Leveraging a recently synthesized and harmonized plot database, this study generated wall-to-wall maps of fCover for six Alaskan-Arctic plant functional types (PFT), including non-vascular plants, forbs, graminoids, and deciduous and evergreen shrubs, using 20-m satellite data (Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, ArcticDEM) using a machine learning regression approach, specifically the random forest (RF) algorithm, which is well-suited for handling nonlinear relationships and high-dimensional satellite datasets. This study additionally addressed the spatio-temporal inconsistencies e.g., sampling scale, plot size, and collection year in plot measured fCover by adopting a multivariate outlier detection approach—Cook’s distance—to identify high-quality plots for model training and validation. Our approach achieves high accuracy (R 2 = 0.59–0.93, root mean squared errors = 0.02–0.10 for all PFTs) between plot-observed and satellite-derived fCover when using high-quality plot samples. The mapped fCover characterizes the spatial patterns of different PFTs across the tundra biome at a 20-m resolution, providing key information needed for improved representation of Arctic tundra vegetation in terrestrial biosphere models to better understand climate-vegetation feedback across the Arctic tundra.

Arctic tundra↗

DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning approach to real-time HIV outbreak detection using genetic data

Pathogen genomic sequence data are increasingly made available for epidemiological monitoring. A main interest is to identify and assess the potential of infectious disease outbreaks. While popular methods to analyze sequence data often involve phylogenetic tree inference, they are vulnerable to errors from recombination and impose a high computational cost, making it difficult to obtain real-time results when the number of sequences is in or above the thousands. Here, we propose an alternative strategy to outbreak detection using genomic data based on deep learning methods developed for image classification. The key idea is to use a pairwise genetic distance matrix calculated from viral sequences as an image, and develop convolutional neutral network (CNN) models to classify areas of the images that show signatures of active outbreak, leading to identification of subsets of sequences taken from an active outbreak. We showed that our method is efficient in finding HIV-1 outbreaks with R0 ≥ 2.5, and overall a specificity exceeding 98% and sensitivity better than 92%. We validated our approach using data from HIV-1 CRF01 in Europe, containing both endemic sequences and a well-known dual outbreak in intravenous drug users. Our model accurately identified known outbreak sequences in the background of slower spreading HIV. Importantly, we detected both outbreaks early on, before they were over, implying that had this method been applied in real-time as data became available, one would have been able to intervene and possibly prevent the extent of these outbreaks. This approach is scalable to processing hundreds of thousands of sequences, making it useful for current and future real-time epidemiological investigations, including public health monitoring using large databases and especially for rapid outbreak identification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

The acoustic results of a United Technologies scale model helicopter rotor tested at DNW

In a major cooperative program between U.S. Government agencies (represented by the U.S. Army Aeroflightdynamics Directorate and NASA Ames and Langley Research Centers) and United Technologies Corp., a 1/6 geometrically and aeroelastically scaled UTC model helicopter rotor was tested in the open-jet anechoic test section of the Duits-Nederlandse Windtunnel in the Netherlands. As the fourth entry under the Aerodynamic and Acoustic Testing of Model Rotors Program, several comprehensive acoustic and aerodynamic databases were obtained relating the important aerodynamic phenomena to both the near- and far-field acoustic radiation. In particular, high speed impulsive noise and blade-vortex interaction are of primary interest. This paper provides an initial summary of the acoustic measurements acquired for some of the different configurations tested. A review of the baseline swept tip rotor acoustic characteristics in the regimes of high speed forward flight, where high speed impulsive noise dominates, and low speed descent, where severe blade vortex interaction noise occurs, is presented. The trends of these primary noise sources are studied as the first step in validating the data for release and application.

Liu, Sandy R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Kestrel IDDES Simulations for SLS Transition Analysis

Complex computational simulations are needed to support the Space Launch System (SLS) program, and the fidelity of the computational results must be defended. More specifically, a number of databases are produced for the transition phase of flight, which occurs after the rocket clears the tower but before reaching transonic speeds. In an effort to reduce computational uncertainty, many of the computational parameters were altered to determine the sensitivity of the results to the value of the parameter and then updating the best practice procedures. The baseline routines were developed over many years through the maturation of the SLS program, and this paper delivers a detailed discussion of these baseline results. This section is followed by demonstration of perturbing some of the more significant parameters, including time step and turbulence model, and concluded with a summary of the herein determined best practices for such analysis.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validation of an Erythema-Weighted UV Model Using Broadband Solar Irradiance Measurements From Eleven U.S. Sites: Preprint

Erythema-weighted UV solar irradiance (UV-E) has a potential impact on human health if the recommended maximum exposure times are exceeded. In spite of this, it is not measured at most sites that measure Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). However, since UV-E is highly correlated with GHI and total ozone content it can be estimated from this information with sufficient accuracy to assisst in public health recommendations. The Power Model (PM) provides a simple method to estimate the erythema-weighted UV irradiance (UV-E) from measured GHI, total ozone column and air mass. In this work, the performance of the PM method is assessed using high-quality data from 11 sites in the continental U.S. (part of SURFRAD and SOLRAD networks) and total ozone estimates publicly available from the MERRA-2 re-analysis database. A three year period (2021- 2023) at 1-minute frequency is considered. The results (for time aggregations of 5 and 60 minutes) show a high Pearson's correlations (> 0.99), consistently positive mean bias deviations (below 13%) and dispersions in the 8-19% range at all sites. Relative values are expressed in terms of the corresponding measurement mean. The performance indicators remain consistent across time resolutions (5 or 60 minutes), suggesting that the model's performance is robust and not significantly affected by short-term variability (which is captured by GHI). Spatial patterns reveal higher biases and RMSD in northern and eastern locations. These values represent a significant improvement over widely used satellite-based global UV-E estimates and open the possibility of using the PM with satellite-based GHI estimates for operational UV-E mapping over the contiguous U.S. territory.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

What you get is not always what you see—pitfalls in solar array assessment using overhead imagery

Effective integration planning for small, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays into electric power grids requires access to high quality data: the location and power capacity of individual solar PV arrays. Unfortunately, national databases of small-scale solar PV do not exist; those that do are limited in their spatial resolution, typically aggregated up to state or national levels. While several promising approaches for solar PV detection have been published, strategies for evaluating the performance of these models are often highly heterogeneous from study to study. The resulting comparison of these methods for practical applications for energy assessments becomes challenging and may imply that the reported performance evaluations overly optimistic. The heterogeneity comes in many forms, each of which we explore in this work: the degree of diversity of the locations and sensors (e.g. different satellites, aerial photography) from which the training and validation data originate, the validation of ground truth (manual annotation of imagery vs known solar PV locations), the level of spatial aggregation (e.g. array-level vs regional estimates), and inconsistencies in the training and validation datasets (e.g. different datasets are used for each study and those data are not always made accessible). For each, we discuss emerging practices from the literature to address them or suggest directions of future research. As part of our investigation, we evaluate solar PV identification performance in two large regions: the entire state of Connecticut and the city of San Diego, CA. In Connecticut, we also use 33,114 known parcel-level solar PV installations from Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset to evaluate parcel-level performance and evaluate capacity estimates using 169 municipalities. We also make our code (which we call SolarMapper), pre-trained models, training data, and predictions publicly available and provide a web portal for interactively inspecting each prediction that was made. Here our findings suggest that traditional performance evaluation of the automated identification of solar PV from satellite imagery may be optimistic due to common limitations in the validation process. The takeaways from this work are intended to inform and catalyze the large-scale practical application of automated solar PV assessment techniques by energy researchers and professionals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating water dynamics related to pedogenesis across space and time: Implications for four-dimensional digital soil mapping

Digital soil mapping (DSM) relies on machine-learning and geostatistics to represent soil property observations across space. DSM techniques are powerful but often empirical, being limited to the quality and density of point samples. Water dynamics are closely related to soil variability, and the physics that govern water movement are well known. Hydrological properties can hence be simulated by physical models through space and time, unveiling key characteristics about soils. We propose the use of hydrologic models to map soils across the surface (2D), depth (1D), and time (1D)–which provides a 4D approach to digital soil mapping (4DSM). The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was applied to a watershed currently under pasture. Moisture sensors and wells were installed at different depths in the watershed on summit, sideslope and toeslope positions to validate the model. DHSVM simulations of soil moisture distribution and depth to saturation were performed during the hydrological year (October 2008-September 2009). Clusters of similar pixels based on soil moisture values were determined using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to align temporal data and K-means. Clustering was performed both seasonally and for the entire year. Temporal patterns simulated by DHSVM matched measurements given by moisture sensors and wells. Seasonal clusters differed from the annual cluster. Distinct clusters were observed for each season and with depth, showing that spatiotemporal soil variability is lost when statically assessing soils. Spatiotemporal clusters corroborated field observations of fragipan occurrence not explicitly spatially mapped by Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO). If a connection can be made between water and soils, static and dynamic soil variability can be predicted using physically based hydrologic models. Hydrologic models can benefit soil mapping by enabling reliable 4D simulation of water dynamics, which are fundamental to soil variability and soil classification and directly relate to biological, physical and chemical soil processes not captured by typical soil sampling protocols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Classification of Dust Days by Satellite Remotely Sensed Aerosol Products

Considerable progress in satellite remote sensing (SRS) of dust particles has been seen in the last decade. From an environmental health perspective, such an event detection, after linking it to ground particulate matter (PM) concentrations, can proxy acute exposure to respirable particles of certain properties (i.e. size, composition, and toxicity). Being affected considerably by atmospheric dust, previous studies in the Eastern Mediterranean, and in Israel in particular, have focused on mechanistic and synoptic prediction, classification, and characterization of dust events. In particular, a scheme for identifying dust days (DD) in Israel based on ground PM10 (particulate matter of size smaller than 10 nm) measurements has been suggested, which has been validated by compositional analysis. This scheme requires information regarding ground PM10 levels, which is naturally limited in places with sparse ground-monitoring coverage. In such cases, SRS may be an efficient and cost-effective alternative to ground measurements. This work demonstrates a new model for identifying DD and non-DD (NDD) over Israel based on an integration of aerosol products from different satellite platforms (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)). Analysis of ground-monitoring data from 2007 to 2008 in southern Israel revealed 67 DD, with more than 88 percent occurring during winter and spring. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model that was applied to a database containing ground monitoring (the dependent variable) and SRS aerosol product (the independent variables) records revealed an optimal set of binary variables for the identification of DD. These variables are combinations of the following primary variables: the calendar month, ground-level relative humidity (RH), the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS, and the aerosol absorbing index (AAI) from OMI. A logistic regression that uses these variables, coded as binary variables, demonstrated 93.2 percent correct classifications of DD and NDD. Evaluation of the combined CART-logistic regression scheme in an adjacent geographical region (Gush Dan) demonstrated good results. Using SRS aerosol products for DD and NDD, identification may enable us to distinguish between health, ecological, and environmental effects that result from exposure to these distinct particle populations.

satellite remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Divergent controls of soil organic carbon between observations and process-based models

Abstract The storage and cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) are governed by multiple co-varying factors, including climate, plant productivity, edaphic properties, and disturbance history. Yet, it remains unclear which of these factors are the dominant predictors of observed SOC stocks, globally and within biomes, and how the role of these predictors varies between observations and process-based models. Here we use global observations and an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models to quantify the emergent importance of key state factors – namely, mean annual temperature, net primary productivity, and soil mineralogy – in explaining biome- to global-scale variation in SOC stocks. We use a machine-learning approach to disentangle the role of covariates and elucidate individual relationships with SOC, without imposing expected relationships a priori . While we observe qualitatively similar relationships between SOC and covariates in observations and models, the magnitude and degree of non-linearity vary substantially among the models and observations. Models appear to overemphasize the importance of temperature and primary productivity (especially in forests and herbaceous biomes, respectively), while observations suggest a greater relative importance of soil minerals. This mismatch is also evident globally. However, we observe agreement between observations and model outputs in select individual biomes – namely, temperate deciduous forests and grasslands, which both show stronger relationships of SOC stocks with temperature and productivity, respectively. This approach highlights biomes with the largest uncertainty and mismatch with observations for targeted model improvements. Understanding the role of dominant SOC controls, and the discrepancies between models and observations, globally and across biomes, is essential for improving and validating process representations in soil and ecosystem models for projections under novel future conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of divertor detachment induced through neon seeding and density ramp on HL-3

A new self-consistent 1D scrape-off layer model has been recently developed in BOUT++ framework, named SD1D, which includes equations for various particle species (e.g. main plasma, neutrals and impurities) and couples open databases like ADAS and AMJUEL. It is able to quickly and effectively simulate divertor detachment experiments. In this work, a typical detachment experiment (shot #6270) on HL-3 with neon seeding is simulated using the SD1D code. It is found that the target electron temperature and the target ion saturation current in the simulations are consistent with experimental results measured by Langmuir probes on the target plate. The variation of D α radiation intensity in the divertor is qualitatively similar to the measured D α signal. Following the experimental validations, different upstream densities are set in the simulations to study the impurity distribution under different plasma density conditions. It is found that increasing upstream density can be helpful for the control of the neon radiation front (closer to the target). In this work we also compare two detachment regimes in simulations. Based on the same initial experimental parameters (shot #6270) on HL-3, a scan of upstream density and a scan of neon seeding rate are carried out respectively. It is found that the role of atomic and molecular processes is different in the two detachment regimes. The current density roll-over is ascribed to a drop in the divertor ion source, and the variation of D α radiation intensity via different excitation channels is associated with the relevant collisional reaction sources.

BOUT++↗

NASA NTRS2011

Cancer Risk Estimates from Space Flight Estimated Using Yields of Chromosome Damage in Astronaut's Blood Lymphocytes

To date, cytogenetic damage has been assessed in blood lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. Chromosome damage was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridization whole chromosome analysis techniques. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their preflight yield, and biodosimetry estimates were within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Follow up analyses have been performed on most of the astronauts at intervals ranging from around 6 months to many years after flight, and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long-duration missions have so far been assessed in four individuals. Chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes have been validated as biomarkers of cancer risk and cytogenetic damage can therefore be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by individual crewmembers after their respective missions. Traditional risk assessment models are based on epidemiological data obtained on Earth in cohorts exposed predominantly to acute doses of gamma-rays, and the extrapolation to the space environment is highly problematic, involving very large uncertainties. Cytogenetic damage could play a key role in reducing uncertainty in risk estimation because it is incurred directly in the space environment, using specimens from the astronauts themselves. Relative cancer risks were estimated from the biodosimetry data using the quantitative approach derived from the European Study Group on Cytogenetic Biomarkers and Health database. Astronauts were categorized into low, medium, or high tertiles according to their yield of chromosome damage. Age adjusted tertile rankings were used to estimate cancer risk and results were compared with values obtained using traditional modeling approaches. Individual tertile rankings increased after space flight and analysis of follow up samples indicated that the tertile rankings remained in the high category for more than 50% of the individuals assessed so far. Crewmembers that shift and remain in the high category are projected to have increased life-time cancer risk.

George, Kerry A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Simulations of Taylor Bubbles in Vertical and Inclined Pipes with Upward and Downward Liquid Flow

Summary Two-phase flow is a common occurrence in pipes of oil and gas developments. Current predictive tools are based on the mechanistic two-fluid model, which requires the use of closure relations to predict integral flow parameters such as liquid holdup (or void fraction) and pressure gradient. However, these closure relations carry the highest uncertainties in the model. In particular, significant discrepancies have been found between experimental data and closure relations for the Taylor bubble velocity in slug flow, which has been determined to strongly affect the mechanistic model predictions (Lizarraga-García 2016). In this work, we study the behavior of Taylor bubbles in vertical and inclined pipes with upward and downward flow using a validated 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach with level set method implemented in a commercial code. A total of 56 cases are simulated, covering a wide range of fluid properties, pipe diameters, and inclination angles: Eo ∈ [10, 700]; Mo ∈ [1×10–6, 5×103]; ReSL ∈ [–40, 10]; θ ∈ [5°, 90°]. For bubbles in vertical upward flows, the simulated distribution parameter, C0, is successfully compared with an existing model. However, the C0 values of downward and inclined slug flows where the bubble becomes asymmetric are shown to be significantly different from their respective vertical upward flow values, and no current model exists for the fluids simulated here. The main contributions of this work are (1) the relatively large 3D numerical database generated for this type of flow, (2) the study of the asymmetric nature of inclined and some vertical downward slug flows, and (3) the analysis of its impact on the distribution parameter, C0.

Engineering↗

NASA NTRS2004

Optimal Aerosol Parameterization for Remote Sensing Retrievals

We have developed a new algorithm for the retrieval of aerosol and gases from SAGE It1 solar transmission measurements. This algorithm improves upon the NASA operational algorithm in several key aspects, including solving the problem non-linearly and incorporating a new methodology for separating the contribution of aerosols and gases. In order to extract aerosol information we have built a huge database of aerosol models for both stratospheric and tropospheric aerosols, and polar stratospheric cloud particles. This set of models allows us to calculate a vast range of possible extinction spectra for aerosols. and from these, derive a set of eigenvectors which then provide the basis set used in our inversion algorithm. Our aerosol algorithm and retrievals are described in several articles (listed in References Section) published under this grant. In particular they allow us to analyze the spectral properties of aerosols and PSCs and ultimately derive their microphysical properties. We have found some considerable differences between our spectra and the ones derived from the SAGE III operational algorithm. These are interesting as they provide an independent check on the validity of published aerosol data and, in particular, on their associated uncertainties. In order to understand these differences, we are assembling independent aerosol data from other sources with which to make comparisons. We have carried out extensive comparisons of our ozone retrievals with both SAGE III and independent lidar, ozonesonde, and satellite measurements (Polyakov et al., 2004). These show very good agreement throughout the stratosphere and help to quantify differences which can be attributed to natural variation in ozone versus that produced by algorithmic differences. In the mid - upper stratosphere, agreement with independent data was generally within 5 - 20%. but in the lower stratosphere the differences were considerably larger. We believe that a large proportion of this discrepancy in the lower stratosphere is attributable to natural variation, and is also seen in comparisons between lidar and ozonesonde measurements. NO2 profiles obtained with our algorithm were compared to those obtained through the SAGE III operational algorithm and exhibited differences of 20 - 40%. Our retrieved profiles agree with the HALOE NO2 measurements significantly better than those of the operational retrieval. In other work (described below), we are extending our aerosol retrievals into the infrared regime and plan to perform retrievals from combined uv-visible-infrared spectra. This work will allow us to use the spectra to derive the size and composition of aerosols, and we plan to employ our algorithms in the analysis of PSC spectra. We are presently also developing a limb-scattering algorithm to retrieve aerosol data from limb measurements of solar scattered radiation.

Newchurch, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Virtual Diagnostic Interface: Aerospace Experimentation in the Synthetic Environment

The Virtual Diagnostics Interface (ViDI) methodology combines two-dimensional image processing and three-dimensional computer modeling to provide comprehensive in-situ visualizations commonly utilized for in-depth planning of wind tunnel and flight testing, real time data visualization of experimental data, and unique merging of experimental and computational data sets in both real-time and post-test analysis. The preparation of such visualizations encompasses the realm of interactive three-dimensional environments, traditional and state of the art image processing techniques, database management and development of toolsets with user friendly graphical user interfaces. ViDI has been under development at the NASA Langley Research Center for over 15 years, and has a long track record of providing unique and insightful solutions to a wide variety of experimental testing techniques and validation of computational simulations. This report will address the various aspects of ViDI and how it has been applied to test programs as varied as NASCAR race car testing in NASA wind tunnels to real-time operations concerning Space Shuttle aerodynamic flight testing. In addition, future trends and applications will be outlined in the paper.

Schwartz, Richard J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Virtual Diagnostic Interface: Aerospace Experimentation in the Synthetic Environment

Schwartz, Richard J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Consistent large-eddy simulation of a temporal mixing layer laden with evaporating drops : Part 1. Direct numerical simulation formulation and a priori analysis

This paper is organized as follows. In § 2, we present the DNS formulation. This formulation consists of a set of coupled conservation equations for the gas phase and the liquid phase (i.e. the drops). The coupling describing the interaction between the two phases is provided in the gas-phase conservation equations by source terms. In § 3, we analyse the DNS results; in particular, we evaluate the adopted form of the heat and mass fluxes. The gas-phase LES equations are developed in § 4 and assumptions that may simplify these equations are examined using the DNS database. Thereafter, the contribution of the source terms is examined by considering the budget of the LES equations. The final form of the LES equations are then presented, in which only the SGS fluxes and the FSTs need be modelled. A parallel perspective on the importance of the source terms is presented in § 5, wherein the irreversible entropy production (i.e. the dissipation) expression for two-phase flow with phase change is derived and evaluated for transitional DNS and the filtered flow fields. Models for the FSTs appearing in the LES equations are investigated in § 6, while several constantcoefficient SGS models are proposed and calibrated in § 7. The present study aims to create simple models so that the modelling approach can be validated by means of an SGS models are proposed and calibrated in § 7. The present study aims to create simple models so that the modelling approach can be validated by means of an a posteriori study.

"Okong'o, Nora A.", 'Bellan, Josette↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using multiple high-resolution datasets to benchmark the energy exascale earth system model (E3SM) for renewable resource assessment

The United States is accelerating its shift toward a renewable energy system. However, renewable resources, which harness energy from the Earth system, are susceptible to both present-day climate variability and future climate change. For example, variations in regional climate can alter renewable energy production patterns and site viability. The use of high-resolution climate model projections can therefore facilitate and may be critical to long-term planning of renewable energy investments. However, climate models must first be validated for renewable resource assessment. This research employs multiple high-spatiotemporal-resolution datasets to assess the capability of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 North American Regionally Refined Model (E3SMv2-NARRM) for predicting multi-year climatological values of solar and wind energy capacity factors in the continental U.S., with a focus on regional and seasonal variability. Present-day E3SMv2-NARRM simulations are compared with reported utility-scale production data obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, E3SMv2-NARRM data are evaluated against non-climate benchmark models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, including the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit and the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), as well as three wind energy datasets from PLUSWIND. Our analysis indicates that solar capacity factors from E3SM closely match those from the NSRDB dataset. However, both datasets tend to overestimate values by 10% in comparison to EIA data. Furthermore, biases in wind capacity factors within E3SM are notably pronounced in the West Coast regions, where the seasonal cycle diverges from EIA data.

Energy forecasting, Capacity factor, Renewable ene↗