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At least 523 records · Page 29

Improved Nondestructive Isotopic Analysis with Practical Microcalorimeter Gamma Spectrometers

Advances in both instrumentation and data analysis software are now enabling the first ultra-high-resolution microcalorimeter gamma spectrometers designed for implementation in nuclear facilities and analytical laboratories. With approximately ten times better energy resolution than high-purity germanium detectors, these instruments can overcome important uncertainty limits. Microcalorimeter gamma spectroscopy is intended to provide nondestructive isotopic analysis capabilities with sufficient precision and accuracy to reduce the need for sampling, chemical separations, and mass spectrometry to meet safeguards and security goals. Key milestones were the development of the SOFIA instrument (Spectrometer Optimized for Facility Integrated Applications) and the SAPPY software (Spectral Analysis Program in PYthon). SOFIA is a compact instrument that combines advances in large multiplexed transition-edge sensor arrays with optimized cryogenic performance to overcome many practical limitations of previous systems. With a 256-pixel multiplexed detector array capable of 5,000 counts per second, measurement time can be comparable to high-purity germanium detectors. SAPPY was developed to determine isotopic ratios in data from SOFIA and other microcalorimeter instruments with an approach similar to the widely-used FRAM software. SAPPY provides a flexible framework with rigorous uncertainty analysis for both microcalorimeter and high purity germanium (HPGe) data, allowing direct comparison. Here, we present current results from the SOFIA instrument, preliminary isotopic analysis using SAPPY, and describe how the technology is being used to explore uncertainty limits of nondestructive isotopic characterization, inform safeguards models, and extract improved nuclear data including gamma-ray branching ratios.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Measuring Chemical Likeness of Stars with Relevant Scaled Component Analysis

Identification of chemically similar stars using elemental abundances is core to many pursuits within Galactic archeology. However, measuring the chemical likeness of stars using abundances directly is limited by systematic imprints of imperfect synthetic spectra in abundance derivation. We present a novel data-driven model that is capable of identifying chemically similar stars from spectra alone. We call this relevant scaled component analysis (RSCA). RSCA finds a mapping from stellar spectra to a representation that optimizes recovery of known open clusters. By design, RSCA amplifies factors of chemical abundance variation and minimizes those of nonchemical parameters, such as instrument systematics. The resultant representation of stellar spectra can therefore be used for precise measurements of chemical similarity between stars. We validate RSCA using 185 cluster stars in 22 open clusters in the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment survey. We quantify our performance in measuring chemical similarity using a reference set of 151,145 field stars. We find that our representation identifies known stellar siblings more effectively than stellar-abundance measurements. Using RSCA, 1.8% of pairs of field stars are as similar as birth siblings, compared to 2.3% when using stellar-abundance labels. We find that almost all of the information within spectra leveraged by RSCA fits into a two-dimensional basis, which we link to [Fe/H] and α-element abundances. We conclude that chemical tagging of stars to their birth clusters remains prohibitive. However, using the spectra has noticeable gain, and our approach is poised to benefit from larger data sets and improved algorithm designs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neural Network‐Based Methods for Ocean Surface Wave Measurement Using Submarine Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS)

Two new data-driven models for estimating ocean surface waves from distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) submarine cable strain rate are developed using supervised machine learning on a 10-day data set collected offshore of Oliktok Point, Alaska. The new models were trained on target data from seafloor pressure moorings at three sites spaced evenly along 27.1 km of cable and were benchmarked against an empirical transfer function method previously used to estimate waves from DAS. A model which uses convolutional neural networks to transform 2-km frequency-wavenumber strain spectra to seafloor pressure spectra outperforms the benchmark in wave height prediction (RMSE of 0.15 vs. 0.41 m) and period prediction (0.29 vs. 0.37 s) when evaluated on a held-out test data set. When applied to a DAS data set collected on the same cable 2 years prior, the CNN-based model maintained similar significant wave height performance (RMSE = 0.23 m) relative to available satellite altimetry data. A two-hidden-layer, fully connected neural network which transforms 1-D strain spectra to seafloor pressure spectra also outperforms the benchmark in wave height prediction (RMSE of 0.19 vs. 0.41 m), but does not generalize as well to the prior data. Regression-based machine learning is useful for estimating waves from DAS data when the pressure-strain relationship varies temporally and spatially across different wave conditions. Models can be applied to DAS data to measure waves with higher spatial resolution and longer temporal coverage than traditional methods, which often measure waves only at a single point.

Davis, Jacob R. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA ↗

Digging a little deeper: characterizing three new extreme ULX candidates

ABSTRACT A prime motivation for compiling catalogues of any celestial X-ray source is to increase our numbers of rare subclasses. In this work, we take a recent multimission catalogue of ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs) and look for hitherto poorly-studied ULX candidates that are luminous ($L_{\rm X} \ge 10^{40}\,{\rm erg\,s}^{-1}$), bright ($f_{\rm X} \ge 5 \times 10^{-13}\,{\rm erg\,cm}^{-2}\,{\rm s}^{-1}$), and have archival XMM–Newton data. We speculate that this luminosity regime may be ideal for identifying new pulsating ULXs (PULXs), given that the majority of known PULXs reach similar high luminosities. We find three sources that match our criteria and study them using archival data. We find 4XMM J165251.5−591503 to possess a bright and variable Galactic optical/IR counterpart, and so conclude it is very likely to be a foreground interloper. 4XMM J091948.8−121429 does appear to be an excellent ULX candidate associated with the dwarf irregular galaxy PGC 26378, but has only one detection to date with low data quality. The best data set belongs to 4XMM J112054.3+531040 which we find to be a moderately variable, spectrally hard (Γ ≈ 1.4) X-ray source located in a spiral arm of NGC 3631. Its spectral hardness is similar to known PULXs, but no pulsations are detected by accelerated pulsation searches in the available data. We discuss whether other missions provide objects for similar studies and compare this method to others suggested for identifying good PULX candidates.

Roberts, T. P. (ORCID:0000000182526337)↗

Electrical Energy Storage Data Submission Guidelines, Version 3

The knowledge of long-term health and reliability of energy storage systems is still unknown, yet these systems are proliferating and are expected increasingly to assist in the maintenance of grid reliability. Understanding long-term reliability and performance characteristics to the degree of knowledge similar to that of traditional utility assets requires operational data. This guideline is intended to inform numerous stakeholders on what data are needed for given functions, how to prescribe access to those data and the considerations impacting data architecture design, as well as provide these stakeholders insight into the data and data systems necessary to ensure storage can meet growing expectations in a safe and cost-efficient manner. Understanding data needs, the systems required, relevant standards, and user needs early in a project conception aids greatly in ensuring that a project ultimately performs to expectations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Evaluation of DNA Extraction Efficiency in Diverse Algae Strains Using Commercial Kits and Lysis Approaches

Efficient DNA extraction is essential for accurately monitoring microalgae communities in large-scale cultivation systems such as raceway ponds and wastewater ponds. Traditional phenol chloroform extracts are a staple in microbiology but are obsolete for routine sampling due to its high toxicity reagents and time intensive setups. Commercial DNA extraction kits are more favorable for the microbes found in these ponds, but lack specific kits made for these communities. Little is known about which kits perform the best, leading researchers to use a variety of different kits with inconsistent results. This project compared one precipitation based commercial kit (Lucigen Masterpure) and five wash based kits (Monarch, Zymo Quick-DNA, and three Qiagen DNeasy kits) using four brackish algae strains to determine which methods yield the greatest quantity and quality of genomic DNA. Extractions were evaluated using the manufacturers protocol, and additional pretreatment options were administered before a single kit to compare its potential in being added routinely before extractions. Pretreatment options included both cryogenic freeze-thawing and heat incubation using enzymes. DNA was quantified using Qubit fluorometry and NanoDrop purity ratios. Overall, the Qiagen PowerWater kit provided the highest DNA yield and purity, but at a significantly higher cost then the precipitation-based kit (MasterPure). It was also noted that while the precipitation-based kit was significantly cheaper, provided similar results, it took significantly more time to complete a single run. Cryogenic pretreatment (6x cycles) increased average DNA yields by up to 80%, whereas enzymatic pretreatment most improved purity ratios without substantially improving quantity. The results suggest that it may be more cost and time efficient to use Qiagen kits with the addition of lysis pretreatments to procure better results. Future works includes developing a better system to efficiently collect multi variable data, and to upscale to artificial polycultures using similar methodologies alongside sequencing to confirm kit results.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High‐speed 4‐dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy using compressive sensing techniques

Abstract Here we show that compressive sensing allows 4‐dimensional (4‐D) STEM data to be obtained and accurately reconstructed with both high‐speed and reduced electron fluence. The methodology needed to achieve these results compared to conventional 4‐D approaches requires only that a random subset of probe locations is acquired from the typical regular scanning grid, which immediately generates both higher speed and the lower fluence experimentally. We also consider downsampling of the detector, showing that oversampling is inherent within convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) patterns and that detector downsampling does not reduce precision but allows faster experimental data acquisition. Analysis of an experimental atomic resolution yttrium silicide dataset shows that it is possible to recover over 25 dB peak signal‐to‐noise ratio in the recovered phase using 0.3% of the total data. Lay abstract : Four‐dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (4‐D STEM) is a powerful technique for characterizing complex nanoscale structures. In this method, a convergent beam electron diffraction pattern (CBED) is acquired at each probe location during the scan of the sample. This means that a 2‐dimensional signal is acquired at each 2‐D probe location, equating to a 4‐D dataset. Despite the recent development of fast direct electron detectors, some capable of 100kHz frame rates, the limiting factor for 4‐D STEM is acquisition times in the majority of cases, where cameras will typically operate on the order of 2kHz. This means that a raster scan containing 256^2 probe locations can take on the order of 30s, approximately 100‐1000 times longer than a conventional STEM imaging technique using monolithic radial detectors. As a result, 4‐D STEM acquisitions can be subject to adverse effects such as drift, beam damage, and sample contamination. Recent advances in computational imaging techniques for STEM have allowed for faster acquisition speeds by way of acquiring only a random subset of probe locations from the field of view. By doing this, the acquisition time is significantly reduced, in some cases by a factor of 10‐100 times. The acquired data is then processed to fill‐in or inpaint the missing data, taking advantage of the inherently low‐complex signals which can be linearly combined to recover the information. In this work, similar methods are demonstrated for the acquisition of 4‐D STEM data, where only a random subset of CBED patterns are acquired over the raster scan. We simulate the compressive sensing acquisition method for 4‐D STEM and present our findings for a variety of analysis techniques such as ptychography and differential phase contrast. Our results show that acquisition times can be significantly reduced on the order of 100‐300 times, therefore improving existing frame rates, as well as further reducing the electron fluence beyond just using a faster camera.

Robinson, Alex W.↗

Investigation of Correlation Methods for Use in Criticality Safety

Although their adoption by practitioners has been limited, the introduction of similarity indices in criticality safety was a major step forward in reducing the reliance on expert judgement in discerning applicable experiments for the validation of new appliations in criticality safety analyses. Similarity indices have been successfully employed in bias trending and data assimilation techniques, but it is often unclear which acceptance criteria should be used. In their 2004 paper, Broadhead et al. specify the most widely used similarity parameter, ck, as an acceptance cutoff at 0.9. (Broadhead et al., ”Sensitivity and Uncertainty-Based Criticality Safety Validation Techniques,” Nucl. Sci. Eng. 146, 340–366, 2004). Experiments with a ck < 0.9 are often not considered applicable for code validation. This heuristic is based on quantitative studies and engineering judgement, but in some cases, experiments with ck < 0.9 can be used to accurately estimate computational bias. This suggests that further analysis is needed to determine what components of ck are driving applicability and accuracy in bias estimation. For cases in which applicable experiments may not be available (as is the case with UF6 transport canisters), understanding what distinguishes experiments in providing adequate bias estimates aside from just the similarity index is particularly necessary. To further the goal to better interpret ck values, several visualization tools were developed to assist in the investigation of which components of ck are driving applicability.

ck↗

Convergence in simulating global soil organic carbon by structurally different models after data assimilation

Abstract Current biogeochemical models produce carbon–climate feedback projections with large uncertainties, often attributed to their structural differences when simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics worldwide. However, choices of model parameter values that quantify the strength and represent properties of different soil carbon cycle processes could also contribute to model simulation uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of using common observational data in reducing model uncertainty in estimates of global SOC storage. Two structurally different models featuring distinctive carbon pools, decomposition kinetics, and carbon transfer pathways simulate opposite global SOC distributions with their customary parameter values yet converge to similar results after being informed by the same global SOC database using a data assimilation approach. The converged spatial SOC simulations result from similar simulations in key model components such as carbon transfer efficiency, baseline decomposition rate, and environmental effects on carbon fluxes by these two models after data assimilation. Moreover, data assimilation results suggest equally effective simulations of SOC using models following either first‐order or Michaelis–Menten kinetics at the global scale. Nevertheless, a wider range of data with high‐quality control and assurance are needed to further constrain SOC dynamics simulations and reduce unconstrained parameters. New sets of data, such as microbial genomics‐function relationships, may also suggest novel structures to account for in future model development. Overall, our results highlight the importance of observational data in informing model development and constraining model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of Synthetic U.S. Electric Power Distribution System Data Sets

There is a strong need for synthetic yet realistic distribution system test data sets that are as diverse, large, and complex to solve as real systems. Such data sets can facilitate the development of advanced algorithms and the assessment of emerging distributed energy resources while avoiding the need to acquire proprietary critical infrastructure or private data. Such synthetic data sets, however, are useful only if they are realistic enough to look and behave similarly to actual systems. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for validating synthetic distribution data sets using a three-pronged statistical, operational, and expert validation approach. Furthermore, it also presents a set of statistical and operational metric targets for achieving realistic data sets based on detailed characterization of more than 10,000 real U.S. utility feeders. The paper demonstrates the use of the proposed validation approach to validate three large-scale synthetic data sets developed by the authors representing Santa Fe, New Mexico; Greensboro, North Carolina; and the San Francisco Bay Area, California.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Thermal modeling of directed energy deposition additive manufacturing using graph theory

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop, apply and validate a mesh-free graph theory–based approach for rapid thermal modeling of the directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM) process. Design/methodology/approach: Here, the authors develop a novel mesh-free graph theory–based approach to predict the thermal history of the DED process. Subsequently, the authors validated the graph theory predicted temperature trends using experimental temperature data for DED of titanium alloy parts (Ti-6Al-4V). Temperature trends were tracked by embedding thermocouples in the substrate. The DED process was simulated using the graph theory approach, and the thermal history predictions were validated based on the data from the thermocouples. Findings: The temperature trends predicted by the graph theory approach have mean absolute percentage error of approximately 11% and root mean square error of 23°C when compared to the experimental data. Moreover, the graph theory simulation was obtained within 4 min using desktop computing resources, which is less than the build time of 25 min. By comparison, a finite element–based model required 136 min to converge to similar level of error. Research limitations/implications: This study uses data from fixed thermocouples when printing thin-wall DED parts. In the future, the authors will incorporate infrared thermal camera data from large parts. Practical implications: The DED process is particularly valuable for near-net shape manufacturing, repair and remanufacturing applications. However, DED parts are often afflicted with flaws, such as cracking and distortion. In DED, flaw formation is largely governed by the intensity and spatial distribution of heat in the part during the process, often referred to as the thermal history. Accordingly, fast and accurate thermal models to predict the thermal history are necessary to understand and preclude flaw formation. Originality/value: This paper presents a new mesh-free computational thermal modeling approach based on graph theory (network science) and applies it to DED. The approach eschews the tedious and computationally demanding meshing aspect of finite element modeling and allows rapid simulation of the thermal history in additive manufacturing. Although the graph theory has been applied to thermal modeling of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF), there are distinct phenomenological differences between DED and LPBF that necessitate substantial modifications to the graph theory approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey: Dynamical Mass of the Exoplanet β Pictoris b from Combined Direct Imaging and Astrometry

Herein, we present new observations of the planet β Pictoris b from 2018 with the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI), the first GPI observations following conjunction. Based on these new measurements, we perform a joint orbit fit to the available relative astrometry from ground-based imaging, the Hipparcos Intermediate Astrometric Data (IAD), and the Gaia DR2 position, and demonstrate how to incorporate the IAD into direct imaging orbit fits. We find a mass consistent with predictions of hot-start evolutionary models and previous works following similar methods, though with larger uncertainties: $12.8^{+5.3}_{–3.2} M_{Jup}$. Our eccentricity determination of ${0.12}_{-0.03}^{+0.04}$ disfavors circular orbits. We consider orbit fits to several different imaging data sets, and find generally similar posteriors on the mass for each combination of imaging data. Our analysis underscores the importance of performing joint fits to the absolute and relative astrometry simultaneously, given the strong covariance between orbital elements. Time of conjunction is well-constrained within 2.8 days of 2017 September 13, with the star behind the planet's Hill sphere between 2017 April 11 and 2018 February 16 (±18 days). Following the recent radial velocity detection of a second planet in the system, β Pic c, we perform additional two-planet fits combining relative astrometry, absolute astrometry, and stellar radial velocities. These joint fits find a significantly smaller mass (8.0 ± 2.6 M Jup) for the imaged planet β Pic b, in a somewhat more circular orbit. We expect future ground-based observations to further constrain the visual orbit and mass of the planet in advance of the release of Gaia DR4.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Shallow Strain Tensor Type-Curve Analysis to Characterizing Reservoir Boundaries

Pressure data measured in monitoring wells during well tests are typically used to estimate subsurface boundaries, but the resolution of this technique is often limited. We have shown that the strain tensor at shallow depth can be measured with optical strainmeters, and this signal responds to pressure changes in an underlying aquifer or reservoir. Moreover, these data can be inverted to estimate reservoir properties using analyses similar to classical type-curve analyses. The objective of this investigation is to evaluate the feasibility of extending the type-curve analysis of strain tensor data to include the characterization of aquifer boundaries.

Roudini, Soheil↗

From BEYONDPLANCK to COSMOGLOBE: Preliminary WMAP Q -band analysis

We present the first application of the COSMOGLOBE analysis framework by analyzing nine-year WMAP time-ordered observations that uses similar machinery to that of BEYONDPLANCK for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI). We analyzed only the Q-band (41 GHz) data and report on the low-level analysis process based on uncalibrated time-ordered data to calibrated maps. Most of the existing BEYONDPLANCK pipeline may be reused for WMAP analysis with minimal changes to the existing codebase. The main modification is the implementation of the same preconditioned biconjugate gradient mapmaker used by the WMAP team. Producing a single WMAP Q1-band sample requires 22 CPU-hrs, which is slightly more than the cost of a Planck 44 GHz sample of 17 CPU-hrs; this demonstrates that a full end-to-end Bayesian processing of the WMAP data is computationally feasible. In general, our recovered maps are very similar to the maps released by the WMAP team, although with two notable differences. In terms of temperature, we find a ~2 μK quadrupole difference that most likely is caused by different gain modeling, while in polarization we find a distinct 2.5 μK signal that has been previously referred to as poorly measured modes by the WMAP team. In the COSMOGLOBE processing, this pattern arises from temperature-to-polarization leakage from the coupling between the CMB Solar dipole, transmission imbalance, and sidelobes. No traces of this pattern are found in either the frequency map or TOD residual map, suggesting that the current processing has succeeded in modeling these poorly measured modes within the assumed parametric model by using Planck information to break the sky-synchronous degeneracies inherent in the WMAP scanning strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Coupling of CTF and TRANSFORM using the Functional Mockup Interface

An in-memory coupling between the sub-channel thermal hydraulics code COBRA-TF (CTF), which is included in the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA), and the systems code Transient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Models (TRANSFORM) was developed in this work. Data exchange is accomplished by using the Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI), an open standard for coupling dynamic systems models together. The FMI-based coupling necessitated the development of a novel FORTRAN wrapper for communicating with Functional Mock-Up Units. This wrapper will facilitate future FMI-based code couplings with other FORTRAN-based programs. CTF-TRANSFORM is exercised on a simplified Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) model in steady-state and transient configurations. The coupled CTF-TRANSFORM model is shown to predict core temperature deltas similar to those available in historical MSRE operational data and is shown to be robust to fast power transients.The coupling paves the way to performing sensitivity and design studies impossible with VERA/CTF alone, in which secondary and tertiary loop operating conditions and design parameters may be perturbed and their impact on the core operating conditions studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optical polarization and spectral properties of the hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae SN 2021bnw and SN 2021fpl

ABSTRACT New optical photometric, spectroscopic, and imaging polarimetry data are combined with publicly available data to study some of the physical properties of the two hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) SN 2021bnw and SN 2021fpl. For each SLSN, the best-fitting parameters obtained from the magnetar model with Modular Open-Source Fitter for Transients do not depart from the range of parameter obtained on other SLSNe discussed in the literature. A spectral analysis with SYN++ shows that SN 2021bnw is a W type, fast evolver, while SN 2021fpl is a 15bn type, slow evolver. The analysis of the polarimetry data obtained on SN 2021fpl at four epochs (+1.8, +20.6, +34.1, and +43.0 d, rest frame) shows >3σ polarization detections in the range of 0.8–1 per cent. A comparison of the spectroscopy data suggests that SN 2021fpl underwent a spectral transition a bit earlier than SN 2015bn, during which, similarly, it could have underwent a polarization transition. The analysis of the polarimetry data obtained on SN 2021bnw does not show any departure from symmetry of the photosphere at an empirical diffusion time-scale of ≈2 (+81.1 d rest frame). This result is consistent with those on the sample of W-type SLSN observed at empirical diffusion time-scale ≤ 1 with that technique, even though it is not clear the effect of limited spectral windows varying from one object to the other. Measurements at higher empirical diffusion time-scale may be needed to see any departure from symmetry as it is discussed in the literature for SN 2017egm.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Method for automatic correction of offset drift in online sensors

Abstract Successful operation and optimization of water treatment systems hinge on the availability of high-quality online sensor measurements. Ideally, the available measurements should be simultaneously accurate (i.e., unbiased and precise), representative, voluminous, and timely. This remains a pain-point in current water infrastructures, forming a barrier to a wider adoption of advanced and autonomous control systems. While short-lived symptoms, such as outliers and spikes, can be detected or corrected with state-of-the-art tools for fault detection and identification, it is much more difficult to detect, diagnose, and correct the symptoms of slow faults, such as changes in offset or sensitivity due to drift. The time scale of drift is often longer than the time scales of the system dynamics of interest. Moreover, sensor drift has been shown to occur at the same time and with similar rates when sensors are exposed to the same conditions. This challenges data quality management strategies based on redundancy. In this contribution, we develop a new method, including both a hands-off sensor calibration mechanism and an information-seeking control architecture that can handle the unique challenge of simultaneous and similar drift in online sensors.

Chowdhury, Dhrubajit↗

Characterization of wind speed and directional shear at the AWAKEN field campaign site

The American wake experiment (AWAKEN) is taking place in northern Oklahoma, USA, close to the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) atmospheric observatory. The planning for the deployment of the instruments in this observational field campaign required an assessment of the wind characteristics of the site. This paper analyzes long-term data collected by instruments at the ARM SGP observatory to characterize the winds near the AWAKEN site. The analysis shows that this site experiences high wind shear and veer events with a large number of nocturnal low-level jets. A total of 7086 low-level jet wind profiles over 6 years are examined and found to be dominant from the south and southeast. Significant nocturnal wind veer is observed, which causes southerly wind near the surface to become westerly wind aloft. By identifying a strong relationship between atmospheric stability and wind shear, the wind shear at the site is predicted using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and validated with the observational data collected by a scanning Doppler lidar. The results show that wind speed at a height of 91 m, a proxy hub height for wind turbines in this area, can be predicted from data collected at a height of 10 m with a bias of −0.35 and 0.65 m s−1 in unstable and stable atmospheric boundary layers, respectively. The bias of the predicted wind speed is mostly in the region of low wind speed, and wind speed above 5 m s−1 at a height of 91 m can be predicted with a bias of less than 0.2 m s−1, and the limitations of the MOST in predicting winds during the stably stratified boundary layer is well-observed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗