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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The ARENA Test Bed – A Versatile Resource for I&C Development and Validation

The Accelerated and Real-time Experimental Nodal Assessment (ARENA) Test Bed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is a versatile resource for development and validation of instrumentation and control (I&C) technologies. This capability was created to facilitate in-situ testing of nuclear electrical cables in various simulated operational environments. Using cable trays, a control box, and selected test components, low voltage cables can be staged to experience local adverse environments such as elevated temperature and water immersion. Cable condition can be continuously monitored over time to track the effect of local stresses using nondestructive assessment tools. A heads-up display (ARENA TV) plots key data in real-time for users. The ARENA Test Bed has recently been used to evaluate the potential for spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR) to monitor thermal aging of a portion of live cable powering a three-phase motor. The arrangement provided the opportunity to directly compare the performance of the novel online SSTDR method with offline results from the more standard frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) method. The ability of SSTDR and FDR to identify the presence of water in immersed shielded and unshielded cables and to detect ground faults was also assessed. A digital twin is being developed to track and predict FDR signals from a thermally aging conceptual cable region to compare with measured signals from the ARENA physical counterpart. The test bed concept addresses an important need in nuclear I&C monitoring tool development. New tools and techniques can be developed in the test bed and validated versus known methods and physical measurements. Digital twins and machine learning engines can be populated with measured data in a controlled environment that would not be readily available in the actual nuclear power plant. Proposed monitoring strategies can be confirmed for effectiveness through objective evaluation. It is anticipated that the PNNL ARENA Test Bed will be a valuable resource in advancing nuclear plant instrumentation.

nuclear electrical cables, ARENA Test Bed, conditi↗
DOE OSTI2024

BIM Interoperability Tool for Improving IFC-based Model Data Exchange Between Architectural Design and Structural Analysis for Linear Piping Components

There is a growing need in the AEC industry for the digitalization of model-based data exchange in BIM workflows. However, users continue to face difficulties exchanging data between BIM-based computer-aided design (CAD) and computer-aided engineering (CAE) software, even with the open, non-proprietary data exchange format called Industry Foundation Classes (IFC). Proposed solutions in academic research focus primarily on building systems, with comparatively little attention to piping models. Therefore, this paper introduces an interoperability tool for enabling piping model data exchange between architectural and structural analysis domains. The tool is tested using a piping model created in Autodesk Revit and shows marked improvement for IFC-based CAD-to-CAE interoperability over existing practice.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated Operations for Nuclear: Work Reduction Opportunity Demonstration

Integrated Operations for Nuclear: Work Reduction Opportunity Demonstration The DI BCA document also identifies specific, digitally enabled WRO categories for further study. These were selected as most relevant by Reference Plant personnel from a larger list of WRO areas identified across the nuclear industry as captured INL/RPT-21-64134, “Process for Significant Nuclear Work Function Innovation Based on Integrated Operations Concepts.” This ION WRO demonstration report was developed to provide illustrative, specific, and actionable direction for intertwined PTPG changes associated with digital modernization efforts. The coordinated changes in these areas are intended to maximize safe plant operational and economic performance. This includes enabling WROs associated with detailed configuration, implementation, and use of digital systems and how they are supported over their lifecycle. Illustrating this direction through a minimum set of advanced technology examples establishes a model PTPG framework that can be leveraged across the spectrum of nuclear plant digital modernization efforts going forward. This document addresses many related concepts. To promote an integrated understanding of the topics that make up this work, this document contains an extensive set of internal hyperlinks. This set includes hyperlinks to page numbers in the table of contents, section numbers, items in lists, figures, tables, and references to other documents within the report. When hovering the cursor above hyperlinked text in Adobe, the cursor will change from “ ” to “ .” When the “ ” appears, a left mouse click will take the reader to the referenced location in the document. To return to the original location in the document, the reader need only press and hold the “alt” button on the keyboard and then simultaneously press the “<” directional key on the keyboard.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical Investigation of Ammonia/n-Heptane Dual-Fuel Spray Flames Using Large Eddy Simulations

Diesel engines are extensively used in heavy-duty transportation, power generation, and marine vehicles due to their superior thermal efficiency and extended high-load operability compared to spark ignition (SI) engines. However, combustion in diesel engines is generally characterized by locally rich fuel–air mixtures and high combustion temperatures, causing significant amounts of soot and NO x emissions from these engines. Utilizing carbon-free alternative fuels and enhancing fuel efficiency represent promising strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) and other emissions in the heavy-duty transportation sector. In this context, ammonia (NH 3 ), as a hydrogen carrier, has received significant attention as a viable substitute for hydrocarbon fuels due to its carbon-free composition, relatively high energy density, and well-established infrastructure. Many previous studies have considered combustion and emission characteristics of ammonia-hydrocarbon fuel blends in engines and simplified flames. But, detailed investigations on the effects of ammonia on the performance of hydrocarbon fuels under engine conditions are lacking. In the present study, we perform large eddy simulations (LES) of the ignition and flame processes in a constant-volume combustion reactor, where n-heptane is injected in an ammonia/air ambient mixture in a diesel-like environment. A detailed and validated reaction mechanism containing 302 species and 1981 reactions is employed. The Engine Combustion Network Spray H experimental data is used to validate the spray model under both non-reacting and reacting conditions. Dual-fuel combustion is simulated using the well-stirred reactor (WSR) approach. Results are presented for two spray cases: (1) single fuel (SF) with n-heptane injected into a mixture of air and combustion products and (2) dual-fuel (DF) with the injection of n-heptane in a mixture of air, ammonia, and combustion products. It is observed that the presence of ammonia has a significant effect on the ignition and flame development processes. With ammonia addition, both the first- and second-stage ignition delay times increase, but the effect of ammonia on the second-stage ignition is significantly more prominent. In addition, the ignition kernel size and growth rate decrease noticeably. For SF spray, the main ignition is characterized by multiple ignition kernels near the spray tip, whereas for DF spray, a single relatively small ignition kernel forms and grows slowly in the downstream direction. The flame development and the final quasi-steady flame structure are also modified due to ammonia. Here, the outcome of this research would enable a better understanding of ammonia–diesel dual-fuel spray flame behavior and guide the development of associated engine combustion strategies.

ammonia↗
DOE OSTI2025

Response of Subsurface Nitrogen-Cycling Microbial Communities to Environmental Fluctuations (Final Technical Report)

Riparian floodplains are dynamic ecosystems linking terrestrial and riverine systems. These floodplains experience hydrological shifts such as changes in water table height, flooding, and drought and can be ‘hotspots’ of biogeochemical cycling due to shifting sediment moisture (and saturation) and subsurface exchanges of water, nutrients, and other compounds across different sediment layers. Subsurface microbial communities are the primary drivers of biogeochemical processes in floodplains, and thus their structure and function can directly influence both surface and groundwater quality. The microbial nitrogen (N) cycle is particularly important in floodplains as it affects nutrient availability and removal. Two functional guilds of chemoautotrophic (i.e. CO2-fixing) microorganisms are responsible for the first oxidative step of the N cycle, nitrification: ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) catalyze the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite, while nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB) oxidize nitrite to nitrate. Despite the critical role nitrification plays in N-cycling in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, our understanding of the diversity, ecophysiology, and activity of nitrifying organisms in subsurface floodplain soils/sediments is extremely limited. To help address this critical knowledge gap, the overarching goal of this project was to determine how shifts in key environmental parameters and gradients impact microbial N-cycling communities/processes, with particular emphasis on nitrification, within hydrologically-variable floodplain sediments in the Wind River Basin near Riverton, Wyoming. The three specific objectives of this project were to: (1) to associate in situ environmental drivers of N cycling with distinct functional guilds; (2) determine the guild response to variation in key ecosystem drivers; and (3) develop a dynamic ecosystem model of the microbial N cycle with the Riverton subsurface using community genomic and biogeochemical data collected in the first two objectives. Over the course of this project, we employed both 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and genome-resolved metagenomics to examine the phylogenetic diversity and metabolic potential of subsurface nitrifier communities within 68 samples collected across multiple sites, depths, and time points within the Riverton floodplain, allowing for both spatial and temporal investigations at different scales. This project benefitted tremendously from recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies coupled with dramatic improvements in the computational tools and algorithms available for analyzing such large, complex genomic datasets. By pairing these cutting-edge genomic approaches with depth-resolved sampling and detailed geochemical analyses of the Riverton floodplain, we have gained novel insights into the structure and function of subsurface nitrifier communities in relation to both hydrology and biogeochemistry. This project resulted in the most detailed and comprehensive characterization of N-cycling floodplain microbial communities to date and will hopefully inspire and pave the way for future studies using similar approaches in other floodplains. Indeed, such information is critical for understanding subsurface biogeochemical cycling and how elemental stores are altered from perturbations initiated by the water cycle within floodplains. Finally, because of the terrestrial-aquatic nature of the Riverton floodplain, results from this project are also of relevance to disciplines such as soil science, estuarine science, limnology & oceanography, biogeochemistry, geobiology, environmental engineering, as well as genomics and data science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Frequency Event Categorization in Power Distribution Systems Using Micro PMU Measurements

Frequency is an important metric for power stability. To enhance the situational awareness in power distribution systems, this article proposes a data-driven approach that utilizes the data from micro phasor measurement units (μPMU) to categorize frequency events observed in distribution feeders. The proposed approach has three layers, each of which analyzes if a frequency event is propagated from the transmission system, formed inside a distribution feeder or falsely produced by instantaneous frequency (IF) estimation algorithms, respectively. In the first layer, the Granger causality is utilized to compare the causal relations from measurements across different locations to decide if an event is propagated from the transmission side. In the second layer, a trained sparse coding dictionary is utilized to unmix the physical causes of a frequency event. In the third layer, a moving z-score based event-pair detector is applied to identify if a frequency event is algorithm-induced. The proposed approach is tested using the μPMU measurements collected from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and Riverside Public Utility (RPU).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Verification of diesel spray ignition phenomenon in dual-fuel diesel-piloted premixed natural gas engine

Dual-fuel (DF) engines, in which premixed natural gas and air in an open-type combustion chamber is ignited by diesel-fuel pilot sprays, have been more popular for marine use than pre-chamber spark ignition (PCSI) engines because of their superior durability. However, control of ignition and combustion in DF engines is more difficult than in PCSI engines. In this context, here we focus on the ignition stability of n-heptane pilot-fuel jets injected into a compressed premixed charge of natural gas and air at low-load conditions. To aid understanding of the experimental data, chemical-kinetics simulations were carried out in a simplified engine-environment that provided insight into the chemical effects of methane (CH4) on pilot-fuel ignition. The simulations reveal that CH4 has an effect on both stages of n-heptane autoignition: the small, first-stage, cool-flame-type, low-temperature ignition (LTI) and the larger, second-stage, high-temperature ignition (HTI). As the ratio of pilot-fuel to CH4 entrained into the spray decreases, the initial oxidization of CH4 consumes the OH radicals produced by pilot-fuel decomposition during LTI, thereby inhibiting its progression to HTI. Using imaging diagnostics, the spatial and temporal progression of LTI and HTI in DF combustion are measured in a heavy-duty optical engine, and the imaging data are analyzed to understand the cause of severe fluctuations in ignition timing and combustion completeness at low-load conditions. Images of cool-flame and hydroxyl radical (OH*) chemiluminescence serve as indicators of LTI and HTI, respectively. The cycle-to-cycle and spatial variation in ignition extracted from the imaging data are used as key metrics of comparison. The imaging data indicate that the local concentration of the pilot-fuel and the richness of the surrounding natural-gas air mixture are important for LTI and HTI, but in different ways. In particular, higher injection pressures and shorter injection durations increase the mixing rate, leading to lower concentrations of pilot-fuel more quickly, which can inhibit HTI even as LTI remains relatively robust. Decreasing the injection pressure from 80 MPa to 40 MPa and increasing the injection duration from 500 µs to 760 µs maintained constant pilot-fuel mass, while promoting robust transition from LTI to HTI by effectively slowing the mixing rate. This allows enough residence time for the OH radicals, produced by the two-stage ignition chemistry of the pilot-fuel, to accelerate the transition from LTI to HTI before being consumed by CH4 oxidation. Thus from a practical perspective, for a premixed natural gas fuel–air equivalence-ratio, it is possible to improve the “stability” of the combustion process by solely manipulating the pilot-fuel injection parameters while maintaining constant mass of injected pilot-fuel. This allows for tailoring mixing trajectories to offset changes in fuel ignition chemistry, so as to promote a robust transition from LTI to HTI by changing the balance between the local concentration of the pilot-fuel and richness of the premixed natural gas and air. This could prove to be a valuable tool for combustion design to improve fuel efficiency or reduce noise or perhaps even reduce heat-transfer losses by locating early combustion away from in-cylinder walls.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

New Pulsed Neutron Die-Away Experiments in Light Water

Thermal neutron scattering laws are important data for many nuclear science and engineering applications, especially criticality safety. Recently, pulsed-neutron die-away experiments have been proposed and used as an experiment to validate thermal neutron scattering laws. These experiments involve irradiating a target moderating material with pulses of neutrons from a neutron generator. The physics of thermal scattering greatly affect how the neutron population in the target exponentially decays via absorption and leakage. Herein, we present experimental results from a new pulsed-neutron die-away experiment of light water that was performed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The experiments were done with cylindrical targets of varying dimensions to modulate the experiment’s sensitivity to thermal scattering and to absorption. We compare the measured integral parameter of the experiment to simulations with MCNP6.2 ® and to past experiments in literature. The integral parameters that were more sensitive to TSLs showed a larger bias. This validation study is known to have errors because the model of the experiment lacks key features about the detectors and neutron generator. These features will be included in the final benchmark evaluation of the experiment which will be submitted to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ducted Fuel Injection And Cooled Spray Technologies For Particulate Control In Heavy-duty Diesel Engines (Final Report)

Cooled Spray (CS) and Ducted Fuel Injection (DFI) are in-cylinder technologies for diesel engines that can reduce particulate matter and soot emissions and data has been published showing that these technologies can reduce soot emissions by 75-100% for some engines at some operating conditions. However, little is known about scaling the devices for engine size. Additionally, the performance of either technology over the engine duty cycle has not been explored. This project addresses both of these points through single-cylinder engine investigations. The objectives of this project are to provide details about dimensional scaling of these devices and to demonstrate 75% PM reduction over a range of operating conditions on a single-cylinder engine. Two engines were used for this project: a 125mm bore optically accessible engine at Sandia National Laboratories and a 168mm bore metal engine at Southwest Research Institute. The optical engine was used to study the performance of DFI and CS inserts for a large injector orifice diameter injector that is characteristic of a locomotive engine and to perform scaling studies for DFI. The metal engine was used to perform scaling and alignment studies for CS and to evaluate the technology for both EGR and non-EGR engines over the engine operating map. Modifications were required for both engines to accept the prototype inserts being tested. The optical engine required a new fuel injector, cylinder head and piston so that tests could be run at the pressures and engine speeds required. Additionally, a novel rotating stage was designed for the optical engine to simplify alignment of the modules. The metal engine required a modified cylinder head to accept CS inserts and a modified piston to provide additional space around the fuel injector for the CS inserts. Tests on the optical engine showed that DFI reduces PM emissions for both small injector orifices (0.170mm diameter) and large injector orifices (0.290mm). For high load testing, the DFI modules were not as effective as at low load testing, but it was acknowledged that minimal geometric optimization was performed and more improvements may be possible. Comparing DFI to CS and conventional diesel combustion (CDC), DFI performed better than CS or CDC. The CS geometries used in these studies may not be ideal for that engine and additional modifications likely would improve performance. Tests on the metal engine showed PM reductions as high has 80% at some operating conditions with duty-cycle PM reductions of ~50% for EGR and non-EGR configurations. The CS testing on the metal engine showed that chamfering of the fuel passage inlet either through hydro-erosion or mechanical grinding provided significant improvements in the PM reduction capabilities of the insert. Additionally, alignment sensitivities were explored and the data show that the tolerance to misalignment is approximately 0.05 to 0.1mm for the inserts that were studied here. Air-fuel ratio was shown to be important in the effectiveness of the CS inserts. In several tests, it was shown that the CS inserts are more effective at reducing the PM for high-AFR operating conditions compared to low AFR conditions. In summary, multiple designs were evaluated on both engines. It was found that for the conditions and configurations studied here, a fuel passage diameter of ~2.5mm performed best overall. Significant duty-cycle PM reductions are possible using these technologies and sensitivities to AFR, alignment fuel passage diameter and inlet fuel passage shaping were explored and are reported here. More PM reduction may be possible with improved geometric design and attention to alignment practices.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Engineering Controls Database

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) addresses the reality that cyber attacks on engineered systems can have consequences far beyond data loss or disruption of digital networks. When control systems are compromised, safety, reliability, and performance of the physical process itself may be threatened. This database is meant to establish clear examples and guidance for defining and applying engineered controls in CIE. It explains what engineered controls are, how they differ from information security measures, and how they are integrated into system design. The goal is to ensure that resilience is engineered into systems from the outset. Unlike cybersecurity protections that defend the digital layer, engineered controls act directly at the physical and algorithmic levels to guarantee that unacceptable consequences are prevented or limited. CIE keeps the consequences of a cyber attack from impacting the safety, reliability, and performance of engineered systems.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) – Engineered Controls Database and Use

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) addresses the reality that cyber-attacks on engineered systems can have consequences far beyond data loss or disruption of digital networks. When control systems are compromised, safety, reliability, and performance of the physical process itself may be threatened. This database is meant to establish clear examples and guidance for defining and applying engineered controls in CIE. It explains what engineered controls are, how they differ from information security measures, and how they are integrated into system design. The goal is to ensure that resilience is engineered into systems from the outset. Unlike cybersecurity protections that defend the digital layer, engineered controls act directly at the physical and algorithmic levels to guarantee that unacceptable consequences are prevented or limited. CIE keeps the consequences of a cyber attack from impacting the safety, reliability, and performance of engineered systems.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Applying Infrared Thermography as a Method for Online Monitoring of Turbine Blade Coolant Flow

As gas turbine engine manufacturers strive to implement condition-based operation and maintenance, there is a need for blade monitoring strategies capable of early fault detection and root-cause determination. Given the importance of blade cooling flows to turbine blade health and longevity, there is a distinct lack of methodologies for coolant flowrate monitoring. The present study addresses this identified opportunity by applying an infrared thermography system on an engine-representative research turbine to generate data-driven models for prediction of blade coolant flowrate. Thermal images were used as inputs to a linear regression and regularization algorithm to relate blade surface temperature distribution with blade coolant flowrate. Additionally, this study investigates how coolant flowrate prediction accuracy is influenced by the number and breadth of diagnostic measurements. Here, the results of this study indicate that a source of high-fidelity training data can be used to predict blade coolant flowrate within about six percent error. Furthermore, identification of prioritized sensor placement supports application of this technique across multiple sensor technologies capable of measuring blade surface temperature in operating gas turbine engines, including spatially resolved and point-based measurement techniques.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Materials Engineering of Violin Soundboards by Stradivari and Guarneri

Abstract We investigated the material properties of Cremonese soundboards using a wide range of spectroscopic, microscopic, and chemical techniques. We found similar types of spruce in Cremonese soundboards as in modern instruments, but Cremonese spruces exhibit unnatural elemental compositions and oxidation patterns that suggest artificial manipulation. Combining analytical data and historical information, we may deduce the minerals being added and their potential functions—borax and metal sulfates for fungal suppression, table salt for moisture control, alum for molecular crosslinking, and potash or quicklime for alkaline treatment. The overall purpose may have been wood preservation or acoustic tuning. Hemicellulose fragmentation and altered cellulose nanostructures are observed in heavily treated Stradivari specimens, which show diminished second‐harmonic generation signals. Guarneri's practice of crosslinking wood fibers via aluminum coordination may also affect mechanical and acoustic properties. Our data suggest that old masters undertook materials engineering experiments to produce soundboards with unique properties.

Su, Cheng‐Kuan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Materials Engineering of Violin Soundboards by Stradivari and Guarneri

Abstract We investigated the material properties of Cremonese soundboards using a wide range of spectroscopic, microscopic, and chemical techniques. We found similar types of spruce in Cremonese soundboards as in modern instruments, but Cremonese spruces exhibit unnatural elemental compositions and oxidation patterns that suggest artificial manipulation. Combining analytical data and historical information, we may deduce the minerals being added and their potential functions—borax and metal sulfates for fungal suppression, table salt for moisture control, alum for molecular crosslinking, and potash or quicklime for alkaline treatment. The overall purpose may have been wood preservation or acoustic tuning. Hemicellulose fragmentation and altered cellulose nanostructures are observed in heavily treated Stradivari specimens, which show diminished second‐harmonic generation signals. Guarneri's practice of crosslinking wood fibers via aluminum coordination may also affect mechanical and acoustic properties. Our data suggest that old masters undertook materials engineering experiments to produce soundboards with unique properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resonance Self-Shielding: Why it is so Important

This paper is one of a series that I am writing to document my 58 years of experience with ENDF and Neutron Transport calculations, beginning when I worked at the National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), from 1967 to 1972. During those years I was the head of the computer unit of NNDC, assigned to develop computer codes to pre-process, view and test ENDF/B data. Since then, I have continued to support the ENDF effort without any official position or monetary compensation, because I realized how important accurate nuclear data is for use in use in our Engineering applications. It is so important to realize that regardless of how accurate or even perfect our application codes may be to transport particles, without accurate nuclear data we are in a “Garbage In = Garbage Out” situation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards Off-policy Evaluation as a Prerequisite for Real-world Reinforcement Learning in Building Control

We present an initial study of off-policy evaluation (OPE), a problem prerequisite to real-world reinforcement learning (RL), in the context of building control. OPE is the problem of estimating a policy's performance without running it on the actual system, using historical data from the existing controller. It enables the control engineers to ensure a new, pretrained policy satisfies the performance requirements and safety constraints of a real-world system, prior to interacting with it. While many methods have been developed for OPE, no study has evaluated which ones are suitable for building operational data, which are generated by deterministic policies and have limited coverage of the state-action space. After reviewing existing works and their assumptions, we adopted the approximate model (AM) method. Furthermore, we used bootstrapping to quantify uncertainty and correct for bias. In a simulation study, we evaluated the proposed approach on 10 policies pretrained with imitation learning. On average, the AM method estimated the energy and comfort costs with 1.84% and 14.1% error, respectively.

Chen, B↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Centrifuge modeling and numerical analysis on lateral performance of mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines

The lateral loading performance of the mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines is investigated in this study through a series of centrifuge tests and numerical analysis. Six mono-bucket models are considered to assess the influences of aspect ratio under the ultimate condition. The FE model is validated against the centrifuge test results, and the failure mechanism of the foundation is revealed. The parametric study and sensitivity analysis of the soil parameters are performed in the numerical simulations. A modified theoretical calculation method is proposed to estimate the ultimate lateral capacity of the suction bucket foundation by solving the limit equilibrium equations. A correction term is added in the calculation using the “m” method. The position of the rotation center is calculated, demonstrating a better accuracy compared to the previously reported geometric method. The modified calculation method is verified against the field test, the centrifuge test, and the laboratory test. The method is proved to be applicable in estimating the lateral performance of the mono-bucket foundation in a general form. Finally, this study aims to provide well-documented data and design references for practical engineers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗