Review of Dynamic and Transient Modeling of Power Electronic Converters for Converter Dominated Power Systems
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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “data driven model”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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My Virtual Cancer
Since each cancer has its own unique characteristics, each one can respond differently to the same treatments. Therefore, the creation of a digital twin (DT) of cancer can assist us in predicting the evolution of an individual's cancer through modeling each tumor's characteristics and response to treatment. Hence, we propose to take advantage of new advances in computational approaches and combine mechanistic, machine learning, and stochastic modeling approaches to create “My Virtual Cancer", a DT platform. To establish a personalized DT, we use patient-specific data for parameter estimations, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. For each patient, we will estimate the values of parameters of their QSP model using the patient's data. We perform a multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification on the mechanistic model to find a set of critical interactions and predict the intervals of confidence. Since this QSP model includes the data-driven mechanistic model of cells and molecules' interaction networks, one of the ultimate results of this DT would be the prediction of evolution of tumors.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Assessment of Machine Learning Wall Modeling Approaches for Large Eddy Simulation of Gas Turbine Film Cooling Flows: An a Priori Study
Here, in this work, a priori analysis of machine learning (ML) strategies is carried out with the goal of data-driven wall modeling for large eddy simulation (LES) of gas turbine film cooling flows. High-fidelity flow datasets are extracted from wall-resolved LES (WRLES) of flow over a flat plate interacting with the coolant flow supplied by a single row of 7-7-7 shaped cooling holes inclined at 30 degrees with the flat plate at different blowing ratios (BR). The WRLES are performed using the high-order Nek5000 spectral element computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. Light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) is employed as the ML algorithm for the data-driven wall model. Parametric tests are conducted to systematically assess the influence of a wide range of input flow features (velocity components, velocity gradients, pressure gradients, and fluid properties) on the accuracy of ML wall model with respect to prediction of wall shear stress. In addition, the use of spatial stencil and time delay is also explored within the ML wall modeling framework. It is shown that features associated with gradients of the streamwise and spanwise velocity components have a major impact on the prediction fidelity of wall model, while the effect of gradients of wall-normal velocity component is found to be negligible. Moreover, adding flow feature information from an x-y-z spatial stencil significantly improves the ML model accuracy and generalizability compared to just using local flow features from the matching location. Overall, highest prediction accuracy is achieved when both spatial stencil and time delay features are incorporated within the data-driven wall modeling paradigm.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Data-driven learning of nonlocal models: from high-fidelity simulations to constitutive laws
We show that machine learning can improve the accuracy of simulations of stress waves in one-dimensional composite materials. We propose a data-driven technique to learn nonlocal constitutive laws for stress wave propagation models. The method is an optimization-based technique in which the nonlocal kernel function is approximated via Bernstein polynomials. The kernel, including both its functional form and parameters, is derived so that when used in a nonlocal solver, it generates solutions that closely match high-fidelity data. The optimal kernel therefore acts as a homogenized nonlocal continuum model that accurately reproduces wave motion in a smaller-scale, more detailed model that can include multiple materials. We apply this technique to wave propagation within a heterogeneous bar with a periodic microstructure. Several one-dimensional numerical tests illustrate the accuracy of our algorithm. The optimal kernel is demonstrated to reproduce high-fidelity data for a composite material in applications that are substantially different from the problems used as training data.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Efficient Optimization of Energy Recovery From Geothermal Reservoirs With Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Models
Improving the long-term energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs can be accomplished by optimizing field development and management plans. Reliable prediction models, however, are needed to evaluate and optimize the performance of the underlying reservoirs under various operation and development strategies. In traditional frameworks, physics-based simulation models are used to predict the energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs. However, detailed simulation models are not trivial to construct, require a reliable description of the reservoir conditions and properties, and entail high computational complexity. Data-driven predictive models can offer an efficient alternative for use in optimization workflows. This paper presents an optimization framework for net power generation in geothermal reservoirs using a variant of the recurrent neural network (RNN) as a data-driven predictive model. The RNN architecture is developed and trained to replace the simulation model for computationally efficient prediction of the objective function and its gradients with respect to the well control variables. The net power generation performance of the field is optimized by automatically adjusting the mass flow rate of production and injection wells over 12 years, using a gradient-based local search algorithm. Two field-scale examples are presented to investigate the performance of the developed data-driven prediction and optimization framework. Furthermore, the prediction and optimization results from the RNN model are evaluated through comparison with the results obtained by using a numerical simulation model of a real geothermal reservoir.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Scalable statistical inference of photometric redshift via data subsampling
Handling big data has largely been a major bottleneck in traditional statistical models. Consequently, when accurate point prediction is the primary target, machine learning models are often preferred over their statistical counterparts for bigger problems. But full probabilistic statistical models often outperform other models in quantifying uncertainties associated with model predictions. We develop a data-driven statistical modeling framework that combines the uncertainties from an ensemble of statistical models learned on smaller subsets of data carefully chosen to account for imbalances in the input space. We demonstrate this method on a photometric redshift estimation problem in cosmology, which seeks to infer a distribution of the redshift—the stretching effect in observing the light of far-away galaxies—given multivariate color information observed for an object in the sky. Our proposed method performs balanced partitioning, graph-based data subsampling across the partitions, and training of an ensemble of Gaussian process models.
data subsampling↗
Data-Driven Kinetic Reaction Networks for Separation Chemistry
Understanding complex, multistep chemical reactions at the molecular level is a major challenge whose solution would greatly benefit the design and optimization of numerous chemical processes. The separation of rare-earth (4f) and actinide (5f) elements is an example where improving our chemical understanding is important for designing and optimizing new chemistries, even with a limited number of observations. Here, in this work, we leverage data-driven artificial intelligence and machine-learning approaches to develop kinetic reaction networks that describe the liquid–liquid extraction mechanism of uranium using N,N-di-2-ethylhexyl-isobutyramide (DEHiBA). Specifically, we compare and contrast the properties of two classes of models: (1) purely data-driven models that are regularized using chemistry-agnostic, L1 regression and (2) chemistry-informed models that are regularized using relative reaction energies provided by quantum mechanical calculations. We observe that purely data-driven models are unbiased, simple, and accurate in their predictions of experimental measurements when provided with sufficient data but are difficult to fully constrain and interpret. In contrast, chemistry-informed models exhibit significantly improved chemical interpretability and consistency, providing a detailed description of the separation process while achieving high accuracy through ensemble averaging. Overall, the dominant species predicted to be extracted into the organic phase is UO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 (DEHiBA) 2 , agreeing with experimental slope analysis, thermodynamic modeling, EXAFS, and crystal structures. This work demonstrates that leveraging the fundamental structure of the problem can lead to efficient learning schemes that provide both accurate predictions and chemical insights at a low computational cost.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Meta-modeling strategy for data-driven forecasting
Accurately forecasting the weather is a key requirement for climate change mitigation. Data-driven methods offer the ability to make more accurate forecasts, but lack interpretability and can be expensive to train and deploy if models are not carefully developed. Here, we make use of two historical climate data sets and tools from machine learning, to accurately predict temperature fields. Furthermore, we are able to use low fidelity models that are cheap to train and evaluate, to selectively avoid expensive high fidelity function evaluations, as well as uncover seasonal variations in predictive power. This allows for an adaptive training strategy for computationally efficient geophysical emulation.
Skinner, Dominic J↗
Bayesian operator inference for data-driven reduced-order modeling
This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem with Gaussian prior and likelihood. The resulting posterior distribution characterizes the operators defining the reduced-order model, hence the predictions subsequently issued by the reduced-order model are endowed with uncertainty. The statistical moments of these predictions are estimated via a Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. Since the reduced models are fast to solve, this sampling is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian framework provides a statistical interpretation of the regularization term that is present in the deterministic operator inference problem, and the empirical Bayes approach of maximum marginal likelihood suggests a selection algorithm for the regularization hyperparameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on two examples: the compressible Euler equations with noise-corrupted observations, and a single-injector combustion process.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Data-Driven Mori-Zwanzig: Reduced Order Modeling of Sparse Sensor Measurements for Boundary Layer Transition
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Reduced Models, Data-Driven, Mori-Zwanzig, Hyperso↗
Aggregation and data driven identification of building thermal dynamic model and unmeasured disturbance
An aggregate model is a single-zone equivalent of a multi-zone building, and is useful for many purposes, including model based control of large heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously identifying an aggregate thermal dynamic model and unknown disturbances from input–output data of multi-zone buildings. The unknown disturbance is a key challenge since it is not measurable but non-negligible. In this paper, we first present a principled method to aggregate a multi-zone building model into a single zone model, and show the aggregation is not as trivial as it has been assumed in the prior art. We then provide a method to identify the parameters of the model and the unknown disturbance for this aggregate (single-zone) model. Finally, we test our proposed identification algorithm to data collected from a multi-zone building testbed in Oak Ridge National Laboratory. A key insight provided by the aggregation method allows us to recognize under what conditions the estimation of the disturbance signal will be necessarily poor and uncertain, even in the case of a specially designed test in which the disturbances affecting each zone are known (as the case of our experimental testbed). This insight is used to provide a heuristic that can be used to assess when the identification results are likely to have high or low accuracy.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Improving Solar and Solar+Storage Screening Techniques to Reduce Utility Interconnection Time and Costs (Final Technical Report)
Residential PV installations have increased rapidly over the last decade, and the increased application volume has caused permitting delays and lower overall adoption rates. In this project, we developed and evaluated whether data-driven secondary modeling and screening techniques can help utilities assess customer applications more accurately than traditional screening shortcuts. Secondary topologies are predicted using decision trees and commonly available information, such as service transformer, customer, and street locations. Conductors were predicted using a logistic regression method based on real world object (RWO) types, service transformer ratings, conductor length, and distance to transformer. After developing the combined primary and secondary distribution network model, hosting capacity results were used to train a random forest model to predict the pass/fail likelihood of a customer application. Powerflow based models with predicted secondaries and data-driven methods both increased the screening success rate, relative to common utility heuristics, by as much as 55 percentage points. Data-driven screening techniques were described by one utility as a "right-sized" approach for residential customers given the low-risk of small errors and the high-cost of accurate modeling.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet
Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.
Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗
Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet
Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.
Data assimilation↗
Eagle Behavior and Risk Modeling for Wind Energy Webinar
NREL presents recent progress in the development and validation of new eagle behavioral models, highlighting applications for wind-plant siting and operations. This webinar features talks focused on three areas: atmospheric modeling across the spatiotemporal scales of interest, facility-scale behavioral modeling, and turbine-scale data-driven behavioral modeling. A final presentation demonstrates micrositing as an application of our completely open-source analysis framework.
agent-based movement model↗
Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors
Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Functional-type modeling approach and data-driven parameterization of methane emissions in wetlands (Final Technical Science Report)
Our goals are to improve understanding and quantitative representation of the multiple processes that affect methane emissions at a high (patch level, vertically detailed) spatial resolution, and translate this understanding to improved modeling capability of coastal wetland fluxes using the E3SM Land Model (ELM v1) wetland CH4 biogeochemistry module. We propose an experimental approach to identify and parameterize uncertainties in ELM. Understanding of methane emissions can be improved along three conceptual axes: (i) horizontal (ecohydrological patch resolution), (ii) vertical (through the depth of the soil column), and (iii) process level (e.g., resolving microbial pathways, vegetation specific transport pathways). Along each of the three axes, we will characterize, quantify, and model, the key ecological, hydrological, and meteorological controls of methane (CH4) flux heterogeneity in four model coastal wetlands.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Development of data‐driven exponential integrators with application to modeling of delay photocurrents
Abstract Radiation‐induced photocurrent effects represent a threat to microelectronic components operating in space, manmade and terrestrial radiation environments. Analysis of these threats by circuit simulations requires accurate and computationally efficient compact models. Most existing compact models are based on closed form analytic solutions of the governing equations and require empirical assumptions and idealizations that can limit their validity. In this paper we formulate an alternative numerical, data‐driven approach that learns a compact model from data representative of the type of measurements one can obtain in an experimental facility. To develop the model we start from a generic discrete‐time dynamical system and then use physics knowledge to refine its structure. Numerical studies demonstrate the potential of the model and establish some empirical guidelines for its training.
Bochev, Pavel↗