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DOE OSTI2026

Data for Impacts of Legacy and Contemporary Nitrogen Inputs on N2O and CO2 Emissions in Miscanthus and Maize Cultivated Soils

Nutrient inputs influence the sustainability of bioenergy crop production through contemporary (shortly after addition) and legacy effects (persisting over years) on microbial nitrogen (N) and carbon cycling, which contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. However, the relative importance of contemporary and legacy effects and how that could vary by crop functional types is poorly understood. Considering its rhizomatous roots and perennial growth, we hypothesized that Miscanthus × giganteu s ( M × g ) would be more sensitive to legacy N fertilization and the historical context of its environment than an annual crop like maize. To test this hypothesis, we examined the effects of legacy and contemporary N inputs on nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as well as key N cycling genes in soils where M × g and maize were grown. A 150-day soil incubation experiment was conducted using soils from a long-term M × g and maize fertility experiment with three historic N fertilization rates (0, 112, and 336 kg N ha−1 year−1) and a contemporary amendment (60 mg N kg−1) with negative control (0 mg N kg−1). We observed significant increases in cumulative N2O emissions in M × g soils relative to maize soils, particularly at higher legacy fertilization rates, while contemporary N had no significant effect. Bacterial amoA gene abundance, which plays a significant role in nitrification in nutrient-rich soils, also increased with higher legacy fertilization rates in M × g soils but was unaffected by the contemporary N. In maize soils, legacy and contemporary N did not significantly affect N2O emissions, but cumulative CO2 emissions and amoA gene abundance significantly increased. The abundances of norB genes were not significantly influenced by either legacy fertilization or contemporary N amendments in either soil. Our findings demonstrate the greater importance of fertilization history over contemporary N in mediating soil N2O emissions, particularly for perennial bioenergy crops.

Carbon↗

NASA NTRS1998

High Pressure Water Stripping Using Multi-Orifice Nozzles

The use of multi-orifice rotary nozzles not only increases the speed and stripping effectiveness of high pressure water blasting systems, but also greatly increases the complexity of selecting and optimizing the operating parameters. The rotational speed of the nozzle must be coupled with the transverse velocity of the nozzle as it passes across the surface of the substrate being stripped. The radial and angular positions of each orifice must be included in the analysis of the nozzle configuration. Since orifices at the outer edge of the nozzle head move at a faster rate than the orifice located near the center, the energy impact force of the water stream from the outer orifice is spread over a larger area than the water streams from the inner orifice. Utilizing a larger diameter orifice in the outer radial positions increases the energy impact to compensate for its wider force distribution. The total flow rate from the combination of orifices must be monitored and kept below the pump capacity while choosing an orifice to insert in each position. The energy distribution from the orifice pattern is further complicated since the rotary path of all orifices in the nozzle head pass through the center section, contributing to the stripping in this area while only the outer most orifice contributes to the stripping in the shell area at the extreme outside edge of the nozzle. From t he outer most shell to the center section, more orifices contribute to the stripping in each progressively reduced diameter shell. With all these parameters to configure and each parameter change affecting the others, a computer model was developed to track and coordinate these parameters. The computer simulation responds by graphically indicating the cumulative affect from each parameter selected. The results from the proper choices in parameters is a well designed, highly efficient stripping system. A poorly chosen set of parameters will cause the nozzle to strip aggressively in some areas while leaving the coating untouched in adjacent sections. The high pressure water stripping system can be set to extremely aggressive conditions allowing stripping of hard to remove adhesives, paint systems, cladding and chromate conversion coatings. The energy force can be reduced to strip coatings from thin aluminum substrates without causing damage or deterioration to the substrate's surface. High pressure water stripping of aerospace components have thus proven to be an efficient and cost effective method for cleaning and removing coatings.

Hoppe, David T.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wetland Soil Characterization and Methane Production Impacted by Nickel Addition, Argonne and Tims Branch Wetlands, September and October 2020

Abstract:Freshwater wetland soils are foci of biogeochemical cycling as they serve as key sources of methane to the atmosphere. An array of metalloenzymes is essential to anaerobic microbial carbon transformations. Nickel is notably recognized as playing key roles in the enzymatic pathways of methanogenesis. Low availability of trace metals limits microbial element cycling in laboratory studies, but the occurrence of such limitations in natural subsurface aquatic systems is poorly understood. Microcosm incubation studies were carried out using two distinct wetland soils, one from a marsh wetland and the second from a riparian wetland, to explore the effect of dissolved Ni concentrations on methane production. Data are provided for wetland soil characterization and soil incubation experiments using materials from marsh wetlands at Argonne National Laboratory and riparian wetlands in the Tims Branch watershed at Savannah River National Laboratory. The characterization data consists soil carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and iron contents plus as well as the solid-phase concentrations of copper, nickel, cobalt, and zinc, bioessential trace metals that may limits microbial metabolic process if they have low availability. The data for the soil incubation experiments include fluid pH, fluid dissolved trace metal concentrations, and cumulative methane production. Three soil incubations are reported: marsh wetland soil with increasing nickel addition, marsh wetland soil in sulfate-free water with increasing nickel addition, and riparian wetland soil with increasing nickel addition. All data are provided in text-based CSV format with header sections indicating the data contained in each file and the corresponding units. Note that "u" is used in place of Greek lower case mu to indicate the micro prefix on units. A Table of Contents file (Yan_Soil_Incubations_2020_TOC.txt) provides an index for the data contained in the individual files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Phonon-informed Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) Optimization for Crystalline Graphite and Beryllium Metal

Fast neutrons born from fission lose energy through scattering interactions in the process of slowing-down. As neutrons thermalize to the order of $k$ $b$ $T$ (where $k$ $b$ is the Boltzmann constant, and $T$ is the temperature of the medium), their de Broglie wavelength and energy approaches the order of inter-atomic spacing and quantized lattice vibrations, i.e., phonons. At thermal energies, the thermal scattering law (TSL), i.e., $S$($α, β$), captures crystal binding contributions to the total reaction rate, or cross section. This dimensionless material property describes the energy ($β$) and momentum ($α$) exchanges available in a medium. Currently, $S$($α, β$) is evaluated in the Full Law Analysis Scattering System Hub (FLASSH) code for discrete inputs and stored as ENDF/B File 7 for 0-phonon elastic (MT 2) and n-phonon inelastic (MT 4) processes. Further processing recasts $S$($α, β$) into cumulative distribution functions for sampling post-collision scattering kinematics. In practice, interpolation schemes are employed to access data between tabulated values. An improvement to this juncture of the nuclear data pipeline is supplying cross sections on-the-fly (OTF), as has been developed for the un-resolved resonance region to minimize non-physical interpolation errors. This capability may improve simulation accuracy for accident and transient analyses, where rapidly varying changes in temperature and pressure are difficult to predict beforehand. To do so, deep artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be employed which collapse non-linear, complex data into a lightweight dictionary of neural weights and biases. This has been successfully demonstrated for the hydrogen in light water $S$($α, β$) dataset in the form of a Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) module. In this work, the NeTS framework is extended to consider the impact of material-dependent dynamical features on optimal neural pre-processing and architecture design decisions, such as number of neurons per hidden layer, residual skip connections and neural depth. New NeTS modules for crystalline graphite and beryllium metal illuminate a novel correlation between dynamical nonlinearity and optimal neural parametrization when deploying $S$($α, β$) on-the-fly.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Increase of carbonyl fluoride (COF2) in the stratosphere and its contribution to the 1992 budget of inorganic fluorine in the upper stratosphere

Volume mixing ratio profiles of COF2 have been derived through most of the stratosphere between 30 deg N and 54 deg S from series of 0.01-/cm resolution infrared solar spectra recorded in the occultation mode by the atmospheric trace molecule spectroscopy (ATMOS) instrument during the ATLAS 1 space shuttle mission of March-April 1992. When compared with similar results obtained from the ATMOS/Spacelab 3 mission of April-May 1985, the cumulative increase in the burden of COF2 in the middle and upper stratosphere was found to be 67% for that 7-year time interval. By combining a subset of these COF2 results with upper stratospheric concentrations of HF also derived from the ATMOS observations, it was further found that the budget of inorganic fluorine above 35 km altitude increased by (60 +/- 10)% over the 1985-1992 time interval, which corresponds to an average exponential rate of increase of (6.7 +/- 1/1)%/yr, or a linear rate of increase reference to 1985 of (8.5 +/- 1.3)%/yr at the 1 sigma confidence level. The total inorganic F atom volume mixing ratio found in the upper stratosphere for 1985 and 1992 and the increase during this perid mirror the rise in man-made fluorine-bearing compounds at the ground during the early to mid 1980s. This demonstrates the negligible impact of natural sources of fluorine, in particular volcanic activity, on the observed change in F in the upper stratosphere. Implications of the present findings and comparison with model results are discussed.

Zander, R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Increase of carbonyl fluoride (COF2) in the stratosphere and its contribution to the 1992 budget of inorganic fluorine in the upper stratosphere

Volume mixing ratio profiles of COF2 have been derived through most of the stratosphere between 30 deg N and 54 deg S from series of 0.01-cm(exp -1) resolution infrared solar spectra recorded in the occultation mode by the atmospheric trace molecule spectroscopy (ATMOS) instrument during the ATLAS 1 space shuttle mission of March-April 1992. When compared with similar results obtained from the ATMOS/Spacelab 3 mission of April-May 1985, the cumulative increase in the burden of COF2 in the middle and upper stratosphere was found to be 67% for that 7-year time interval. By combining a subset of these COF2 results with upper stratospheric concentrations of HF also derived from the ATMOS observations, it was further found that the budget of inorganic fluorine above 35 km altitude increased by (60 +/- 10) % over the 1985-1992 time interval, which corresponds to an average exponential rate of increase of(6.7 +/- 1.1) % /yr , or a linear rate of increase referenced to 1985 of (8.5 +/- 1.3) % /yr at the 1(sigma) confidence level. The total inorganic F atom volume mixing ratio found in the upper stratosphere for 1985 and 1992 and the increase during this period mirror the rise in man-made fluorine-bearing compounds at the ground during the early to mid 1980s. This demonstrates the negligible impact of natural sources of fluorine, in particular volcanic activity, on the observed change of F in the upper stratosphere. Implications of the present findings and comparison with model results are discussed.

Zander, R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Legacy and Contemporary Nitrogen Inputs on N 2 O and CO 2 Emissions in Miscanthus and Maize Cultivated Soils

ABSTRACT Nutrient inputs influence the sustainability of bioenergy crop production through contemporary (shortly after addition) and legacy effects (persisting over years) on microbial nitrogen (N) and carbon cycling, which contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. However, the relative importance of contemporary and legacy effects and how that could vary by crop functional types is poorly understood. Considering its rhizomatous roots and perennial growth, we hypothesized that Miscanthus × giganteus (M×g) would be more sensitive to legacy N fertilization and the historical context of its environment than an annual crop like maize. To test this hypothesis, we examined the effects of legacy and contemporary N inputs on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, as well as key N cycling genes in soils where M×g and maize were grown. A 150‐day soil incubation experiment was conducted using soils from a long‐term M×g and maize fertility experiment with three historic N fertilization rates (0, 112, and 336 kg N ha −1 year −1 ) and a contemporary amendment (60 mg N kg −1 ) with negative control (0 mg N kg −1 ). We observed significant increases in cumulative N 2 O emissions in Mxg soils relative to maize soils, particularly at higher legacy fertilization rates, while contemporary N had no significant effect. Bacterial amo A gene abundance, which plays a significant role in nitrification in nutrient‐rich soils, also increased with higher legacy fertilization rates in M×g soils but was unaffected by the contemporary N. In maize soils, legacy and contemporary N did not significantly affect N 2 O emissions, but cumulative CO 2 emissions and amo A gene abundance significantly increased. The abundances of nor B genes were not significantly influenced by either legacy fertilization or contemporary N amendments in either soil. Our findings demonstrate the greater importance of fertilization history over contemporary N in mediating soil N 2 O emissions, particularly for perennial bioenergy crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data from Raczka et al., Interactions between microbial diversity and substrate chemistry determine the fate of carbon in soil, from Elizabeth Woods in Morgantown, West Virginia, USA

File types include: Soil respiration as 13C cumulative respiration from soil incubation experiment, qSIP (quantitative stable isotope probing) data that is "18S apes wide" which is the fungal atom percent excess or how much the fungi took up of the labeled litter and "16S apes wide" which is the bacterial atom percent excess or how much the bacteria took up of the labeled litter, metabolomic data from the incubated soil samples called "Metab Soil Unique Filtered", which is the metabolomic data that had an initial filter from the raw data, and lipidomic data from the incubated soil samples called "All lipids soil". These files were used according to methods in Raczka et al. 2021 Scientific Reports. Headers show soil type (Oak, Poplar) and litter type (also called substrate here, which is labeled as no litter (control), poplar, and oak). This research was done to understand interactions between ecosystem-level processes and microbial diversity that impacts the composition of decomposition products that can form stable soil organic matter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Assessing the Impact of Soil Layer Depth Specification on the Observability of Modeled Soil Moisture and Brightness Temperature

The utility of hydrologic land surface models (LSMs) can be enhanced by using information from observational platforms, but mismatches between the two are common.This study assesses the degree to which model agreement with observations (observability) is affected by two mechanisms in particular: 1) physical incongruities between the support volumes being characterized and 2) inadequateor inconsistent parameterizations of physical processes. The Noah and Noah-MP LSMs by default characterize surface soil moisture (SSM) in the top 10 cm of the soil column. This depth may be reasonable when comparing against soil moisture from in situ probes centered at 5 cm,but it is notably different from the 5 cm (or less) sensing depth of NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission. These depth inconsistencies are examined by using thinner model layers in the Noah and Noah-MP LSMs and comparing resultant simulations to in situ and SMAP soil moisture. In addition, a forward radiative transfer model to simulate microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs) is used to facilitate direct comparisons of LSM-based and SMAP-based L-band Tb retrievals. Observability is quantified using Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance values, calculated from empirical cumulative distribution functions of SSM and Tb time series. Experiment results depend on the particular subspace being analyzed (SSM or Tb). This study concludes that therole of increasedsoil layer discretizationon LSM observability is secondary to the influence of component parameterizations, the effects of which dominate systematic differences with observations

SMAP↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of residue management practices on barley residue decomposition

Optimizing barley (hordeum vulgare L.) production in Idaho and other parts of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) should focus on farm resource management. The effect of post-harvest residue management on barley residue decomposition has not been adequately studied. Thus, the objective of this study was to determine the effect of residue placement (surface vs. incorporated), residue size (chopped vs. ground-sieved) and soil type (sand and sandy loam) on barley residue decomposition. A 50-day(d) laboratory incubation experiment was conducted at a temperature of 25°C at the Aberdeen Research and Extension Center, Aberdeen, Idaho, USA. Following the study, a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) modeling approach was applied to investigate the first-order decay kinetics of barley residue. An accelerated initial flush of residue carbon(C)-mineralization was measured for the sieved (Day 1) compared to chopped (Day 3 to 5) residues for both surface incorporated applications. The highest evolution of carbon dioxide (CO 2 )-C of 8.3 g kg -1 dry residue was observed on Day 1 from the incorporated-sieved application for both soils. The highest and lowest amount of cumulative CO 2 -C released and percentage residue decomposed over 50-d was observed for surface-chopped (107 g kg -1 dry residue and 27%, respectively) and incorporated-sieved (69 g kg -1 dry residue and 18%, respectively) residues, respectively. There were no significant differences in C-mineralization from barley residue based on soil type or its interactions with residue placement and size (p >0.05). The largest decay constant k of 0.0083 d -1 was calculated for surface-chopped residue where the predicted half-life was 80 d, which did not differ from surface sieved or incorporated chopped. In contrast, incorporated-sieved treatments only resulted in a k of 0.0054 d -1 and would need an additional 48 d to decompose 50% of the residue. Future residue decomposition studies under field conditions are warranted to verify the residue C-mineralization and its impact on residue management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the bulk compaction of brittle granular materials, part I: SeS analysis of axial compression to 4000 MPa

The bulk compaction of granular materials has been studied for decades to interpret and manage responses for soils and powder-based component fabrication, and geophysical, celestial, and ballistic impact. Their bulk or macroscopic compaction response is limited by what occurs at the granular or microstructural scale. Motivation existed to more closely examine that association specific to granular brittle materials (e.g., ceramics and glasses). That examination is offered in a series of three companion papers where Part I describes a new supplemental analysis adopted to bulk compaction response involving relatively high compaction stresses (4000 MPa). Bulk compactions of vitreous silicates and crystalline quartzes were interpreted in three ways, including that of a new analysis that considers the product of void ratio (e) and stress (S) as a function of S, hereafter referred to as “SeS analysis”. In conclusion, the SeS analysis was found to be an informative supplement to conventional bulk compaction analyses because it provides more consistent higher sensitivity for the identification of bulk density rate increase with increasing compaction (softening); a rate increase that arises from the cumulative effect of the onsets and progression of compaction-induced yielding, fracture or comminution, densification, phase change, or combinations thereof occurring at the granular or microstructural scale.

compaction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fallowed agricultural lands dominate anthropogenic dust sources in California

Air pollution remains a major problem in many parts of California, significantly impacting public health and regional climate. However, the contribution of anthropogenic dust from agricultural sources, among major pollutants in California’s semi-arid Central Valley, remains largely unclear. Here, we used the Cropland Data Layer from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to identify crop types and land use/cover and leveraged satellite-derived estimates of major dust events between 2008 and 2022 over California. We identified fallowed land—an unplanted agricultural land parcel—as a key anthropogenic dust source in California. Specifically, we find that the Central Valley accounts for about 77% of total fallowed land areas in California, where they are associated with about 88% of major anthropogenic dust events. We also find that the geographic coverage of these fallowed lands expanded between 2008 and 2022 with associated increasing anthropogenic dust activities. Additionally, these anthropogenic dust activities are sensitive to the drought severity over the fallowed lands, with potential cumulative effects on downstream dust burden during prolonged multi-year drought conditions. Overall, our results have important implications for public health, including increased risk for Valley fever and for regional climates, such as increases in extreme precipitation and snowmelt over the Sierra Nevada.

Climate sciences↗

NASA NTRS1993

Impact experiments into multiple-mesh targets: Concept development of a lightweight collisional bumper

The utility of multiple-mesh targets as potential lightweight shields to protect spacecraft in low-Earth orbit against collisional damage is explored. Earlier studies revealed that single meshes comminute hypervelocity impactors with efficiencies comparable to contiguous targets. Multiple interaction of projectile fragments with any number of meshes should lead to increased comminution, deceleration, and dispersion of the projectile, such that all debris exiting the mesh stack possesses low specific energies (ergs/sq cm) that would readily be tolerated by many flight systems. The study is conceptually exploring the sensitivity of major variables such as impact velocity, the specific areal mass (g/sq cm) of the total mesh stack (SM), and the separation distance (S) between individual meshes. Most experiments employed five or ten meshes with total SM typically less than 0.5 the specific mass of the impactor, and silicate glass impactors rather than metal projectiles. While projectile comminution increases with increasing impact velocity due to progressively higher shock stresses, encounters with multiple-meshes at low velocity (1-2 km/s) already lead to significant disruption of the glass impactors, with the resulting fragments being additionally decelerated and dispersed by subsequent meshes, and, unlike most contiguous single-plate bumpers, leading to respectable performance at low velocity. Total specific bumper mass must be the subject of careful trade-off studies; relatively massive bumpers will generate too much debris being dislodged from the bumper itself, while exceptionally lightweight designs will not cause sufficient comminution, deceleration, or dispersion of the impactor. Separation distance was found to be a crucial design parameter, as it controls the dispersion of the fragment cloud. Substantial mass savings could result if maximum separation distances were employed. The total mass of debris dislodged by multiple-mesh stacks is modestly smaller than that of single, contiguous-membrane shields. The cumulative surface area of all penetration holes in multiple mesh stacks is an order of magnitude smaller than that in analog multiple-foil shields, suggesting good long-term performance of the mesh designs. Due to different experimental conditions, direct and quantitative comparison with other lightweight shields is not possible at present.

Hoerz, Friedrich↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC (2020 Status Report)

Savannah River Site (SRS) stores plutonium materials within model 9975 shipping packages in the K-Area Complex (KAC). The 9975 shipping package consists of a 35 gallon stainless steel drum, Celotex fiberboard insulation, lead shield, and primary and secondary containment vessels. The 9975 shipping package design, performance, and analysis for safe transport of radioactive material are described in the Safety Analysis Report for Packaging (SARP). Celotex fiberboard provides three safety functions: thermal insulation to limit internal temperature during a fire, criticality control, and resistance to package crushing. The fiberboard material must retain its dimensions and density within certain ranges to provide the required impact resistance, criticality control, and fire resistance. The SRS Surveillance Program monitors material performance to establish a basis for service life and ensures the continued integrity of 9975 packages. Fiberboard samples, taken from multiple fiberboard assemblies fabricated from cane and softwood fiberboard, have been conditioning in elevated temperature environments since 2005. The samples are periodically examined to monitor thermal, mechanical, and physical properties, and assess degradation trends. Fiberboard properties of interest that are evaluated to demonstrate acceptable long-term performance include dimensional stability, density, compressive strength, thermal conductivity, and specific heat capacity. Duplicate samples from multiple package sources have been tested to identify the range of variability in fiberboard properties and degradation rates. Baseline and long-term testing of fiberboard material properties have been reported previously; reference 6 summarized experimental results of cane and softwood fiberboard through May 2019 and presented degradation models for the measured properties. This report presents the cumulative data collected through June 2020 and the corresponding updated aging models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modified Autogenic Feedback Training Produces Effect on Motion Sickness

Motion sickness is a common physiological reaction to provocative motion and is characterized by a constellation of symptoms, including stomach awareness, nausea, emesis, pallor, sweating, hypersalivation, and fatigue. The emergence of these symptoms can pose a significant threat to safety, particularly in the context of aviation. Given its prevalence among aviators and its detrimental impact on performance, researchers have endeavored to identify effective countermeasures for motion sickness. Currently, many of the existing interventions are pharmacological in nature and while effective, they present a problem due to their associated adverse side effects. A modified two-hour version of Autogenic Feedback Training Exercise (AFTE) could be an effective countermeasure to motion sickness without adverse side effects. AFTE combines principles of autogenic therapy, biofeedback, and learning to teach individuals to control their own internal physiological reactions through a series of relaxation and arousal exercises. AFTE was administered over six days. On the first day, participants were exposed to provocative motion via a rotating chair test to collect baseline physiological data. AFTE sessions were conducted on four consecutive days and lasted approximately 30 minutes each session. Participants were exposed to the rotating chair again on the 6th day. Results: Participants (n = 16) were evaluated on the number of rotations experienced and cumulative minutes spun in the chair. Participants tended to ride longer (M = 21.0 min, SD = 16.56) and tolerated more rotations (M = 244.8 rotations, SD = 310.62) on their second rotating chair test compared to baseline (M = 14.0 min, SD = 9.35; M = 125.8 rotations, SD = 124.08; t(15) = 2.21, p = .02). A moderate effect size was recorded (Hedges’s g = 0.44). A modified two-hour version of the AFTE is effective at increasing tolerance of symptoms associated with motion sickness.

motion sickness↗

DOE OSTI2020

Use of a controlled experiment and computational models to measure the impact of sequential peer exposures on decision making

It is widely believed that one’s peers influence product adoption behaviors. This relationship has been linked to the number of signals a decision-maker receives in a social network. But it is unclear if these same principles hold when the “pattern” by which it receives these signals vary and when peer influence is directed towards choices which are not optimal. To investigate that, we manipulate social signal exposure in an online controlled experiment using a game with human participants. Each participant in the game decides among choices with differing utilities. We observe the following: (1) even in the presence of monetary risks and previously acquired knowledge of the choices, decision-makers tend to deviate from the obvious optimal decision when their peers make a similar decision which we call the influence decision, (2) when the quantity of social signals vary over time, the forwarding probability of the influence decision and therefore being responsive to social influence does not necessarily correlate proportionally to the absolute quantity of signals. To better understand how these rules of peer influence could be used in modeling applications of real world diffusion and in networked environments, we use our behavioral findings to simulate spreading dynamics in real world case studies. We specifically try to see how cumulative influence plays out in the presence of user uncertainty and measure its outcome on rumor diffusion, which we model as an example of sub-optimal choice diffusion. Together, our simulation results indicate that sequential peer effects from the influence decision overcomes individual uncertainty to guide faster rumor diffusion over time. However, when the rate of diffusion is slow in the beginning, user uncertainty can have a substantial role compared to peer influence in deciding the adoption trajectory of a piece of questionable information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Long-term socioeconomic trends and climate variability as drivers of virtual water scarcity in China

Water scarcity can have far-reaching sectoral impacts beyond its physical location through the propagation of virtual water flows. Socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes affect local and virtual water scarcity by altering availability and demand. Yet most studies of this phenomenon focus on volumetric footprints, and the few on water scarcity risk have not examined hydroclimatic variability beyond long-term trends. In this study, we ask how gross domestic product (GDP) and population changes, long-term meteorological trends, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and interannual meteorological variability affect water scarcity in China, both locally (through the local water scarcity risk index, LWSR) and remotely (through the virtual water scarcity risk index, VWSR). Counterfactual scenarios were compared in a regression-and-simulation framework, with the socioeconomic and meteorological drivers varying over 1923–2019 and the multi-regional input–output structure staying fixed at 2017. Relative to a 5 year baseline centered on 2017, GDP and population changes have induced a cumulative 17%–50% increase in LWSR and 13%–21% increase in VWSR, outweighing the effect of long-term meteorological trends. phase change in one of two examined SST patterns induce 4%–13% differences in LWSR and 1%–4% differences in VWSR. Interannual meteorological variability induces 10%–20% standard deviations in LWSR and 3%–7% in VWSR. The findings highlight the importance of using longer time series to accurately assess local and virtual water scarcity situations. Water scarcity management should prioritize socioeconomic factors when planning at century-long timescales and prioritize hydroclimatic factors at multidecadal or shorter timescales. water managers should consider interannual variabilities in LWSR and VWSR and plan for potential occurrences of extreme conditions.

climate variability↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of acute temperature and air pollution exposures on adult lung function: A panel study of asthmatics

Background Individuals with respiratory conditions, such as asthma, are particularly susceptible to adverse health effects associated with higher levels of ambient air pollution and temperature. This study evaluates whether hourly levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and dry bulb globe temperature (DBGT) are associated with the lung function of adult participants with asthma. Methods and findings Global positioning system (GPS) location, respiratory function (measured as forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV 1 )), and self-reports of asthma medication usage and symptoms were collected as part of the Exposure, Location, and Lung Function (ELF) study. Hourly ambient PM 2.5 and DBGT exposures were estimated by integrating air quality and temperature public records with time-activity patterns using GPS coordinates for each participant (n = 35). The relationships between acute PM 2.5 , DBGT, rescue bronchodilator use, and lung function collected in one week periods and over two seasons (summer/winter) were analyzed by multivariate regression, using different exposure time frames. In separate models, increasing levels in PM 2.5 , but not DBGT, were associated with rescue bronchodilator use. Conversely DBGT, but not PM 2.5 , had a significant association with FEV 1 . When DBGT and PM 2.5 exposures were placed in the same model, the strongest association between cumulative PM 2.5 exposures and the use of rescue bronchodilator was identified at the 0–24 hours (OR = 1.030; 95% CI = 1.012–1.049; p-value = 0.001) and 0–48 hours (OR = 1.030; 95% CI = 1.013–1.057; p-value = 0.001) prior to lung function measure. Conversely, DBGT exposure at 0 hours (β = 3.257; SE = 0.879; p-value>0.001) and 0–6 hours (β = 2.885; SE = 0.903; p-value = 0.001) hours before a reading were associated with FEV 1 . No significant interactions between DBGT and PM 2.5 were observed for rescue bronchodilator use or FEV 1 . Conclusions Short-term increases in PM 2.5 were associated with increased rescue bronchodilator use, while DBGT was associated with higher lung function (i.e. FEV 1 ). Further studies are needed to continue to elucidate the mechanisms of acute exposure to PM 2.5 and DBGT on lung function in asthmatics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗