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At least 523 records · Page 29

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The interpretation of temperature and salinity variables in numerical ocean model output and the calculation of heat fluxes and heat content

Abstract. The international Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater 2010 (TEOS-10) defined the enthalpy and entropy of seawater, thus enabling the global ocean heat content to be calculated as the volume integral of the product of in situ density, ρ, and potential enthalpy, h0 (with reference sea pressure of 0 dbar). In terms of Conservative Temperature, Θ, ocean heat content is the volume integral of ρcp0Θ, where cp0 is a constant “isobaric heat capacity”. However, many ocean models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) as well as all models that contributed to earlier phases, such as CMIP5, CMIP3, CMIP2, and CMIP1, used EOS-80 (Equation of State – 1980) rather than the updated TEOS-10, so the question arises of how the salinity and temperature variables in these models should be physically interpreted, with a particular focus on comparison to TEOS-10-compliant observations. In this article we address how heat content, surface heat fluxes, and the meridional heat transport are best calculated using output from these models and how these quantities should be compared with those calculated from corresponding observations. We conclude that even though a model uses the EOS-80, which expects potential temperature as its input temperature, the most appropriate interpretation of the model's temperature variable is actually Conservative Temperature. This perhaps unexpected interpretation is needed to ensure that the air–sea heat flux that leaves and arrives in atmosphere and sea ice models is the same as that which arrives in and leaves the ocean model. We also show that the salinity variable carried by present TEOS-10-based models is Preformed Salinity, while the salinity variable of EOS-80-based models is also proportional to Preformed Salinity. These interpretations of the salinity and temperature variables in ocean models are an update on the comprehensive Griffies et al. (2016) paper that discusses the interpretation of many aspects of coupled Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geometric remapping of particle distributions in the Discrete Element Model for Sea Ice (DEMSI v0.0)

Abstract. A new sea ice dynamical core, the Discrete Element Model for Sea Ice (DEMSI), is under development for use in coupled Earth system models. DEMSI is based on the discrete element method, which models collections of ice floes as interacting Lagrangian particles. In basin-scale sea ice simulations the Lagrangian motion results in significant convergence and ridging, which requires periodic remapping of sea ice variables from a deformed particle configuration back to an undeformed initial distribution. At the resolution required for Earth system models we cannot resolve individual sea ice floes, so we adopt the sub-grid-scale thickness distribution used in continuum sea ice models. This choice leads to a series of hierarchical tracers depending on ice fractional area or concentration that must be remapped consistently. The circular discrete elements employed in DEMSI help improve the computational efficiency at the cost of increased complexity in the effective element area definitions for sea ice cover that are required for the accurate enforcement of conservation. An additional challenge is the accurate remapping of element values along the ice edge, the location of which varies due to the Lagrangian motion of the particles. In this paper we describe a particle-to-particle remapping approach based on well-established geometric remapping ideas that enforces conservation, bounds preservation, and compatibility between associated tracer quantities, while also robustly managing remapping at the ice edge. One element of the remapping algorithm is a novel optimization-based flux correction that enforces concentration bounds in the case of nonuniform motion. We demonstrate the accuracy and utility of the algorithm in a series of numerical test cases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Refrigeration system

In one aspect, a refrigeration system is provided. The refrigeration system includes a refrigeration circuit configured to condition an air supply, a subcooling circuit configured to cool the refrigeration circuit, the subcooling circuit including a subcooling condenser, a subcooling heat exchanger, and at least one adsorption bed, and a heat generation system thermally coupled to the subcooling circuit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stochastic Cooling with Strong Band Overlap

Up to present time the stochastic cooling was only tested and used at the microwave frequencies. Majority of these stochastic cooling systems operate without Schottky band overlap which greatly simplifies tuning of cooling systems and removes unwanted coupling between different cooling systems. A transition from the microwave stochastic cooling to the optical stochastic cooling or to the coherent electron cooling increases the central frequency of cooling systems by orders of magnitude and makes impossible a cooling system operation without overlap of Schottky bands. In this paper we consider how the band overlap affects the maximum cooling rate and the optimal gain.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

A Conceptual Architecture for a Quantum-HPC Middleware

Abstract-Quantum computing promises potential for science and industry by solving certain computationally complex problems faster than classical computers. Quantum computing systems evolved from coupled to classical computing nodes (HPC). With the increasing monolithic systems towards modular architectures comprising multiple quantum processing units (QPUs) scale, middleware systems that facilitate the efficient coupling of quantum-classical computing are becoming critical. Through an in-depth analysis of quantum applications, integration patterns and systems, we identified a gap in understanding Quantum HPC middleware systems. We present a conceptual middleware to facilitate reasoning about quantum-classical integration and serve as the basis for a future middleware system. An essential contribution of this paper lies in leveraging well-established high performance computing abstractions for managing workloads, tasks, and resources to integrate quantum computing into HPC systems seamlessly

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

West African Monsoon System’s Responses to Global Ocean–Regional Atmosphere Coupling

This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling’s influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ~25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes’ relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

System and method for measuring sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence

A chlorophyll fluorescence measuring system having at least one spectrometer coupled to a data logger. The data logger provides direct control of the spectrometer and includes on-board memory for storage of target and reference spectrum data obtained by the spectrometer. The data logger may be coupled to an external computer that receives and analyzes target and reference spectrum data to determine SIF using a spectral fitting algorithm. The system may include a spectrometer aiming system coupled to and controlled by the data logger. The system may also include one or more environmental sensors configured to measure environment variables. The environmental sensors may be coupled to the data logger for control and data storage. The environmental data may be communicated to the external computer for use in the spectral fitting algorithm. The data logger may be connected to a network for remote monitoring and control.

Gu, Lianhong↗

Anomalies in the space of coupling constants and their dynamical applications I

It is customary to couple a quantum system to external classical fields. One application is to couple the global symmetries of the system (including the Poincaré symmetry) to background gauge fields (and a metric for the Poincaré symmetry). Failure of gauge invariance of the partition function under gauge transformations of these fields reflects ’t Hooft anomalies. It is also common to view the ordinary (scalar) coupling constants as background fields, i.e. to study the theory when they are spacetime dependent. We will show that the notion of ’t Hooft anomalies can be extended naturally to include these scalar background fields. Just as ordinary ’t Hooft anomalies allow us to deduce dynamical consequences about the phases of the theory and its defects, the same is true for these generalized ’t Hooft anomalies. Specifically, since the coupling constants vary, we can learn that certain phase transitions must be present. We will demonstrate these anomalies and their applications in simple pedagogical examples in one dimension (quantum mechanics) and in some two, three, and four-dimensional quantum field theories. An anomaly is an example of an invertible field theory, which can be described as an object in (generalized) differential cohomology. We give an introduction to this perspective. Also, we use Quillen’s superconnections to derive the anomaly for a free spinor field with variable mass. In a companion paper we will study four-dimensional gauge theories showing how our view unifies and extends many recently obtained results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Coastal Groundwater Table Simulated by an Earth System Model With a Land‐Ocean Coupling Scheme

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) poses a severe threat to the coastal environment through seawater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. The rising groundwater table also exacerbates the risk of pluvial, fluvial, and groundwater flooding in coastal regions. However, current Earth system models (ESMs) commonly ignore the exchanges of water at the land‐ocean interface. To address this gap, we developed a novel land‐ocean hydrologic coupling scheme in a state‐of‐the‐science ESM, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The new scheme includes the lateral exchange between seawater and groundwater and the vertical infiltration of seawater driven by the SLR‐induced inundation. Simulations were performed with the updated E3SMv2 for the global land‐ocean interface to assess the impacts of SLR on coastal groundwater under a high CO 2 emission scenario. By the middle of this century, seawater infiltration on the inundated areas will be the dominant component in the land‐ocean coupling process, while the lateral subsurface flow exchange will be much smaller. The SLR‐induced seawater infiltration will raise the groundwater levels, enhance evapotranspiration, and increase runoff with distinct spatial patterns globally in the future. Although the coupling process is induced by SLR, we found topography and warming temperature have more control on the coupling impacts, probably due to the relatively modest magnitude of SLR during the selected future period. Overall, our study suggests significant groundwater and seawater exchange at the land‐ocean interface, which needs to be considered in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Meso-Scale Electrodynamic Coupling of the Earth Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System

Within the fully integrated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, many electrodynamic processes interact with each other. We review recent advances in understanding three major meso-scale coupling processes within the system: the transient field-aligned currents (FACs), mid-latitude plasma convection, and auroral particle precipitation. (1) Transient FACs arise due to disturbances from either dayside or nightside magnetosphere. As the interplanetary shocks suddenly compress the dayside magnetosphere, short-lived FACs are induced at high latitudes with their polarity successively changing. Magnetotail dynamics, such as substorm injections, can also disturb the current structures, leading to the formation of substorm current wedges and ring current disruption. (2) The mid-latitude plasma convection is closely associated with electric fields in the system. Recent studies have unraveled some important features and mechanisms of subauroral fast flows. (3) Charged particles, while drifting around the Earth, often experience precipitating loss down to the upper atmosphere, enhancing the auroral conductivity. Recent studies have been devoted to developing more self-consistent geospace circulation models by including a better representation of the auroral conductance. It is expected that including these new advances in geospace circulation models could promisingly strengthen their forecasting capability in space weather applications. The remaining challenges especially in the global modeling of the circulation system are also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Experimental Evaluation of Refrigerant Leak Characteristics for Different HVAC&R Equipment Types–Phase 2

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technology Office (BTO) and the Air-conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration Technology Institute (AHRTI) collaborated to sponsor an experimental study of refrigerant leak characteristics at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); AHRTI project 9012. The project has been conducted in two phases with objectives to conduct refrigerant leak tests on several heating, ventilating, air-conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems under operating conditions representative of actual applications to document the pressure decay rate and the mass flow rate of leaked refrigerant as a function of time. Phase 1 of the project ran from late 2017 to late 2018 with refrigerant leaks imposed on five systems and the collection of data to meet the project objectives. Systems chosen covered three air-conditioning (AC) applications (packaged terminal AC or PTAC, 3-ton residential split system AC, and 5-ton packaged rooftop AC) and two refrigeration applications (split system unit cooler, and standalone display case). AHRTI members donated the test systems used for the project. The systems were tested at two different leak rates (catastrophic high rate simulating full line break and a lower flow rate), two leak locations (high-pressure side and low-pressure side), and two operating conditions (compressor ON or OFF). Phase 1 results were summarized in a project report by Baxter, et al. (2019)1. The leak rates imposed in Phase 1 led to much more rapid charge releases than the more typical much slower rates seen in practice that would take days, weeks, or months to empty a system of its entire charge. For Phase 2, the project sponsors asked that the “higher” leak rate target a total charge release time of about 4 min. This was intended to represent a “reasonable” worst case release scenario to match the refrigerant leak rate assumption used in the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standard IEC 60335-2-40 (2016 version [IEC 2016]. A charge release time of about 20–40 min (leak release rate 5 to 10 times lower than higher rate) was targeted for the “lower” leak rate. This report provides a summary of the Phase 2 effort. Two additional HVAC systems were selected for testing in this phase. First was a multi-split air-conditioning (MS-AC) system with one outdoor section and two indoor units and a nameplate refrigerant charge of 1.75 kg (3.86 lb.) of R-410A. The MS-AC was tested in cooling only or AC operation. Second was a split system heat pump coupled to two different representative supply duct systems (HP-duct) and a nameplate charge of 3.83 kg (8.44 lb.) of R-410A. This system was tested in both space heating and AC modes. As in Phase 1 of the project, all tests were conducted using R-410A.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Negative Refraction in Time-Varying Strongly Coupled Plasmonic-Antenna–Epsilon-Near-Zero Systems

Time-varying metasurfaces are emerging as a powerful instrument for the dynamical control of the electromagnetic properties of a propagating wave. Here we demonstrate an efficient time-varying metasurface based on plasmonic nano-antennas strongly coupled to an epsilon-near-zero (ENZ) deeply subwavelength film. The plasmonic resonance of the metal resonators strongly interacts with the optical ENZ modes, providing a Rabi level spitting of ~30%. Optical pumping at frequency ω induces a nonlinear polarization oscillating at 2ω responsible for an efficient generation of a phase conjugate and a negative refracted beam with a conversion efficiency that is more than 4 orders of magnitude greater compared to the bare ENZ film. In this work, the introduction of a strongly coupled plasmonic system therefore provides a simple and effective route towards the implementation of ENZ physics at the nanoscale.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Overset meshes for incompressible flows: On preserving accuracy of underlying discretizations

This study on overset meshes for incompressible-flow simulations is motivated by accurate prediction of wind farm aerodynamics involving large motions and deformations of components with complex geometry. Specifically, using first-order hyperbolic and elliptic equation proxies for the incompressible Navier-Stokes (NS) equations, we investigate the influence of information exchange between overset meshes on numerical performance where the underlying discretization is second-order accurate. The first aspect of information exchange surrounds interpolation of solution where we examine Lagrange and point-cloud-based interpolation for creating constraint equations between overset meshes. To maintain overall second-order accuracy, higher-order interpolation is required for elliptic problems, but linear interpolation is sufficient for hyperbolic problems in first-order form. Higher-order point-cloud-based interpolation provides a pathway to maintaining accuracy in unstructured meshes, but at higher complexity. The second aspect of information exchange focuses on comparing the approaches of overset single system (OSS) and overset Additive Schwarz (OAS) for coupling the linear systems of the overlapping meshes. While the former involves a single linear system, in the latter the discrete linear systems are solved separately, and solving the global system is accomplished through outer iterations and sequential information exchange in a Jacobi fashion. For the test cases studied, accuracy for hyperbolic problems is maintained by performing two outer iterations, whereas many outer iterations are required for elliptic systems. The order-of-accuracy studies explored here are critical for verifying the overset-mesh coupling algorithms used in engineering simulations. Accuracy of these simulations themselves is, however, quantified using engineering quantities of interest such as drag, power, etc. Consequently, we conclude with numerical experiments using NS equations for incompressible flows where we show that linear interpolation and few outer iterations are sufficient for achieving asymptotic convergence of engineering quantities of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Interface learning in fluid dynamics: Statistical inference of closures within micro–macro-coupling models

Many complex multiphysics systems in fluid dynamics involve using solvers with varied levels of approximations in different regions of the computational domain to resolve multiple spatiotemporal scales present in the flow. The accuracy of the solution is governed by how the information is exchanged between these solvers at the interface and several methods have been devised for such coupling problems. In this article, we construct a data-driven model by spatially coupling a microscale lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) solver and macroscale finite difference method (FDM) solver for reaction-diffusion systems. The coupling between the micro-macro solvers has one to many mapping at the interface leading to the interface closure problem, and we propose a statistical inference method based on neural networks to learn this closure relation. The performance of the proposed framework in a bifidelity setting partitioned between the FDM and LBM domain shows its promise for complex systems where analytical relations between micro-macro solvers are not available.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integration of Online Cross-Section Generation Capability with Depletion and Transient Solvers in Griffin

Griffin is a Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based reactor multiphysics analysis application jointly developed by Argonne and Idaho National Laboratories under the DOENE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. In FY25, an online crosssection generation capability based on the Self-Shielding Application Programming Interface (SSAPI) was demonstrated for TRISO-fueled reactor problems under steady-state conditions. This fiscal year, that capability was extended to support depletion and transient multiphysics calculations, enabling high-fidelity analyses that generate self-shielded cross sections on the fly from the actual evolving composition and temperature states rather than from pre-tabulated libraries. For depletion, a two-way coupling was established in which SSAPI computes compact-averaged self-shielded cross sections that the depletion solver then uses to advance the Bateman equations, with the updated compositions returned to SSAPI at each step; the depletion module was refactored to support both library-based and SSAPI-based cross sections, and additional logic was added to track daughter isotopes and to exclude minor isotopes for efficiency. For transient analysis, the SSAPI multigroup library was extended with the kinetics data required for time-dependent calculations, the Improved Quasi-Static (IQS) scheme was coupled with SSAPI, and several supporting capabilities were implemented, including a self-shielding treatment that lets control rods and drums move within a self-shielded model, which had previously been impossible and had ruled out rod- and drum-movement transients with on-the-fly cross sections altogether, a new mixing scheme for delayed-neutron precursor decay constants, a checkpoint-based restart workflow, and performance improvements such as pointwise cross-section interpolation and the bypassing of unnecessary Dancoff factor calculations. The implemented capabilities were verified against Serpent Monte Carlo solutions. For depletion, a prismatic pin-cell problem based on a Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Very High Temperature Reactor benchmark showed excellent agreement, with eigenvalue differences within 200 pcm over the entire burnup range (up to 140 MWD/kgU) and fission-product and actinide inventories agreeing to within 0.8% and 2.5%, respectively; a heat-pipe microreactor assembly problem with a much higher fuel loading confirmed the same behavior and quantified the bias introduced when the multigroup equivalence effect is neglected. For transient analysis, a pin-cell problem with a step reactivity insertion and temperature feedback reproduced the analytically expected asymptotic power and showed close agreement between the direct and IQS solutions, and a two-dimensional microreactor core problem with control-drum rotation exercised the new moving-drum self-shielding treatment and demonstrated successful coupling of the online crosssection generation with both the direct and IQS transient methods. The capability was further exercised on a full-core pebble-bed problem, in which Griffin was coupled with the System Analysis Module (SAM) to simulate load-following operation of the gPBR with the Doppler feedback resolved at the TRISO fuel kernel temperature. These developments in Griffin provide a convenient, high-fidelity approach to cross-section generation for advanced thermal reactors with geometrically complex and highly heterogeneous configurations, including TRISO-fueled prismatic and pebble-bed systems, and support steady-state, depletion, and transient multiphysics calculations. They also enable self-shielded cross sections to be evaluated directly at the actual coupled state of the system, thereby establishing a foundation for high-fidelity, fully coupled multiphysics analysis of advanced reactors

Park, H.↗

Controlling the Manifold of Polariton States Through Molecular Disorder

Exciton polaritons, arising from the interaction of electronic transitions with confined electromagnetic fields, have emerged as a powerful tool to manipulate the properties of organic materials. However, standard experimental and theoretical approaches overlook the significant energetic disorder present in most materials now studied. Using the conjugated polymer P3HT as a model platform, the degree of energetic disorder is systematically tuned and a corresponding redistribution of photonic character within the polariton manifold is observed. Based on these subtle spectral features, a more generalized approach is developed to describe strong light–matter coupling in disordered systems that captures the key spectroscopic observables and provides a description of the rich manifold of states intermediate between bright and dark. Finally, applied to a wide range of organic systems, the method challenges prevailing notions about ultrastrong coupling and whether it can be achieved with broad, disordered absorbers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗