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This review brings rigorous life cycle cost (LCC) analysis into discussions about COTS program costs. We gather publicly available cost data, review the data for credibility, check for consistency among sources, and rigorously define and analyze specific cost metrics.
Under the auspices of NASA/JSC a methodology was developed to estimate the value of satellite servicing to the user community. Time and funding precluded the development of an exhaustive computer model; instead, the concept of Design Reference Missions was involved. In this approach, three space programs were analyzed for various levels of servicing. The programs selected fall into broad categories which include 80 to 90% of the missions planned between now and the end of the century. Of necessity, the extrapolation of the three program analyses to the user community as a whole depends on an average mission model and equivalency projections. The value of the estimated cost benefits based on this approach depends largely on how well the equivalency assumptions and the mission model match the real world. A careful definition of all assumptions permits the analysis to be extended to conditions beyond the scope of this study.
NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.
Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.
The Hazardous Gas Detection Lab is involved in the design and development of instrumentation that can detect and quantify various hazardous gases. Traditionally these systems are designed for leak detection of the cryogenic gases used for the propulsion of the Shuttle and other vehicles. Mass spectrometers are the basis of these systems, which provide excellent quantitation, sensitivity, selectivity, response and limits of detection. Unfortunately, these systems are large, heavy and expensive. This feature limits the ability to perform gas analysis in certain applications. Smaller and lighter mass spectrometer systems could be used in many more applications primarily due to the portability of the system. Such applications would include air analysis in confined spaces, in-situ environmental analysis and emergency response. In general, system cost is lowered as size is reduced. With a low cost air analysis system, several systems could be utilized for monitoring large areas. These networked systems could be deployed at job-sites for worker safety, throughout a community for pollution warnings, or dispersed in a battlefield for early warning of chemical or biological threats. Presented will be information on the first prototype of this type of system. Included will be field trial data, with this prototype performing air analysis autonomously from an aircraft.
This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.
Individualized program direct costs for each satellite program are presented. This breakdown provides the activity level dependent costs for each satellite program. The activity level dependent costs, or, more simply, program direct costs, are comprised of the total payload costs (as these costs are strictly program dependent) and the direct launch vehicle costs. Only those incremental launch vehicle costs associated directly with the satellite program are considered. For expendable launch vehicles the direct costs include the vehicle investment hardware costs and the launch operations costs. For the reusable STS vehicles the direct costs include only the launch operations, recovery operations, command and control, vehicle maintenance, and propellant support. The costs associated with amortization of reusable vehicle investment, RDT&E range support, etc., are not included.
Cost estimates for the space tug operation are presented. The subjects discussed are: (1) research and development costs, (2) investment costs, (3) operations costs, and (4) funding requirements. The emphasis is placed on the single stage tug configuration using various types of liquid propellants.
A mathematical model employing Fourier series is used to show quantization and reaction wheel friction nonlinearity in a telescope system for use in space. Block diagrams are used to illustrate the system. A discrete describing function of a quantizer also is given, and input and output signal waveforms, with illustrative examples, are shown.
The pointing stability of the low-cost large space telescope (LST) system was investigated. The low-cost LST is characterized by the use of reaction wheels for the generation of control torques. Because of the critical requirement on the pointing accuracy of the LST, the nonlinear frictional characteristics of the bearings of the reaction wheels were studied which can cause limit cycles in a closed-loop system. Another possible source of pointing error in the LST is due to the effect of quantization and sensor noise. Since the LST is a digital system, digital to analog and analog to digital converters and sensors for positional and rate feedbacks were used. Sensor noise and amplitude quantization causes pointing error in the LST and, in addition, quantization is a nonlinear phenomenon which can cause self-sustained oscillations in the closed-loop system. The dynamic modeling of the single-axis LST is described, and several methods of evaluating the attitude error of the digital LST due to quantization and noise inputs are given.
Configurations (two) of the reflector-only assemblies, using different width backup cones, are analyzed for RF boresight direction changes and wind distortions. The wider backup cone is best for minimum weight; however, there is an optimum weight which minimizes the RF boresight errors for a wind load that produces the maximum pitching moment of both configurations.
The results of a study of the uses of helicopters in agriculture and forestry in the United States are discussed. Comparisons with agricultural airplanes are made in terms of costs of aerial application to the growers. An analysis of cost drivers and potential improvements to helicopters that will lower costs is presented. Future trends are discussed, and recommendations for research are outlined. Operational safety hazards and accident records are examined, and problem areas are identified. Areas where research and development are needed to provide opportunities for lowering costs while increasing productivity are analyzed.
There are no author-identified signficant results in this report.
The benefits and costs associated with placing large space systems (LSS) in operational orbits were investigated, and a flexible computer model for analyzing these benefits and costs was developed. A mission model for LSS was identified that included both NASA/Commercial and DOD missions. This model included a total of 68 STS launches for the NASA/Commercial missions and 202 launches for the DOD missions. The mission catalog was of sufficient depth to define the structure type, mass and acceleration limits of each LSS. Conceptual primary propulsion stages (PPS) designs for orbital transfer were developed for three low thrust LO2/LH2 engines baselined for the study. The performance characteristics for each of these PPS was compared to the LSS mission catalog to create a mission capture. The costs involved in placing the LSS in their operational orbits were identified. The two primary costs were that of the PPS and of the STS launch. The cost of the LSS was not included as it is not a function of the PPS performance. The basic relationships and algorithms that could be used to describe the costs were established. The benefit criteria for the mission model were also defined. These included mission capture, reliability, technical risk, development time, and growth potential. Rating guidelines were established for each parameter. For flexibility, each parameter is assigned a weighting factor.
A combination of the time and frequency domains which employs the latter only where the former is inefficient or uncertain is used in Space Shuttle payloads' component mode analyses. Attention is given to the time histories at the launch vehicle/spacecraft interface. The frequency domain allows interface acceleration to be determined without recourse to a new, merged system eigenvalue solution and subsequent 'system modal' responses. The approach has been employed in Galileo spacecraft loads analyses.
Analysis of costs to refurbish thermal protection system for space shuttles
Accomplishments are described for the 2-year program, to develop advanced 3-D inelastic structural stress analysis methods and solution strategies for more accurate and cost effective analysis of combustors, turbine blades and vanes. The approach was to develop a matrix of formulation elements and constitutive models. Three constitutive models were developed in conjunction with optimized iterating techniques, accelerators, and convergence criteria within a framework of dynamic time incrementing. Three formulations models were developed; an eight-noded mid-surface shell element, a nine-noded mid-surface shell element and a twenty-noded isoparametric solid element. A separate computer program was developed for each combination of constitutive model-formulation model. Each program provides a functional stand alone capability for performing cyclic nonlinear structural analysis. In addition, the analysis capabilities incorporated into each program can be abstracted in subroutine form for incorporation into other codes or to form new combinations.
A two-year program to develop advanced 3D inelastic structural stress analysis methods and solution strategies for more accurate and cost effective analysis of combustors, turbine blades, and vanes is described. The approach was to develop a matrix of formulation elements and constitutive models. Three constitutive models were developed in conjunction with optimized iterating techniques, accelerators, and convergence criteria within a framework of dynamic time incrementing. Three formulation models were developed: an eight-noded midsurface shell element; a nine-noded midsurface shell element; and a twenty-noded isoparametric solid element. A separate computer program has been developed for each combination of constitutive model-formulation model. Each program provides a functional stand alone capability for performing cyclic nonlinear structural analysis. In addition, the analysis capabilities incorporated into each program can be abstracted in subroutine form for incorporation into other codes or to form new combinations.