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At least 523 records · Page 29

Variable oxygen airglow on Venus as a probe of atmospheric dynamics

High-resolution images are presented of an oxygen airglow that arises during downwelling at an altitude of about 95 km on the nightside of Venus. Oxygen atoms are formed by photolysis of CO2 on the sunlit hemisphere and are then transported to the nightside, where they recombine during descent. The newly formed molecular oxygen emits radiation to produce the airglow. Localized, short-lived regions of emission and neighboring dark areas are observed, demonstrating the potential of such observations to constrain atmospheric dynamics at this little-studied and important altitude in the Venusian mesosphere.

Allen, David↗

Near-infrared detection of potential evidence for microscopic organisms on Europa

The possibility of an ocean within the icy shell of Jupiter's moon Europa has established that world as a primary candidate in the search for extraterrestrial life within our Solar System. This paper evaluates the potential to detect evidence for microbial life by comparing laboratory studies of terrestrial microorganisms with measurements from the Galileo Near Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (NIMS). If the interior of Europa at one time harbored life, some evidence may remain in the surface materials. Examination of laboratory spectra of terrestrial extremophiles measured at cryogenic temperatures reveals distorted, asymmetric nearinfrared absorption features due to water of hydration. The band centers, widths, and shapes of these features closely match those observed in the Europa spectra. These features are strongest in reddish-brown, disrupted terrains such as linea and chaos regions. Narrow spectral features due to amide bonds in the microbe proteins provide a means of constraining the abundances of such materials using the NIMS data. The NIMS data of disrupted terrains exhibit distorted, asymmetric near-infrared absorption features consistent with the presence of water ice, sulfuric acid octahydrate, hydrated salts, and possibly as much as 0.2 mg cm(-3) of carbonaceous material that could be of biological origin. However, inherent noise in the observations and limitations of spectral sampling must be taken into account when discussing these findings.

Extraterrestrial Environment↗

Human and Robotic Exploration of Near-Earth Objects

A study in late 2006 was sponsored by the Advanced Projects Office within NASA's Constellation Program to examine the feasibility of sending the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle to a near-Earth object (NEO). The ideal mission profile would involve two or three astronauts on a 90 to 180 day flight, which would include a 7 to 14 day stay for proximity operations at the target NEO. More recently U.S. President Obama stated on April 15, 2010 that the next goal for human spaceflight will be to send human beings to a near-Earth asteroid by 2025. Given this direction from the White House, NASA has been involved in studying various strategies for NEO exploration in order to follow U.S. space exploration policy. Prior to sending a human mission, a series of robotic spacecraft would be launched to reduce the risk to crew, and enhance the planning for the proximity and surface operations at the NEO. The human mission would ideally follow five or more years later. This mission would be the first human expedition to an interplanetary body beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars and other solar system destinations. Piloted missions to NEOs would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific investigations of these primitive objects. The main scientific advantage of sending piloted missions to NEOs would be the flexibility of the crew to perform tasks and to adapt to situations in real time. A crewed vehicle would be able to test several different sample collection techniques and target specific areas of interest via extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) more efficiently than robotic spacecraft. Such capabilities greatly enhance the scientific return from these missions to NEOs, destinations vital to understanding the evolution and thermal histories of primitive bodies during the formation of the early solar system. Data collected from these missions would help constrain the suite of materials possibly delivered to the early Earth, and would identify potential source regions from which NEOs originate. In addition, the resulting scientific investigations would refine designs for future extraterrestrial resource extraction and utilization, and assist in the development of hazard mitigation techniques for planetary defense.

Abell, Paul A.↗

What We are Learning from (and About) the 10 Plus Year MISR Aerosol Data Record

Having a 10+ year data record from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) significantly improves our opportunities to validate the retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and especially particle microphysical property products. It also begins to raise the possibility of using the data to look for changes or even trends, at least on a regional basis. Further, we have had the opportunity to expand the database of wildfire smoke plume heights derived from the multiangle observations. This presentation will review the latest aerosol validation results and algorithm upgrades under consideration by the MISR team, and will summarize the current status of MISR global aerosol air mass type, and regional dust transport and smoke injection height products. The strengths and limitations of these data for constraining aerosol transport model simulations will receive special emphasis.

Kahn, Ralph A.↗

Application of Spectral Analysis Techniques in the Intercomparison of Aerosol Data: Part III. Using Combined PCA to Compare Spatiotemporal Variability of MODIS, MISR and OMI Aerosol Optical Depth

Satellite measurements of global aerosol properties are very useful in constraining aerosol parameterization in climate models. The reliability of different data sets in representing global and regional aerosol variability becomes an essential question. In this study, we present the results of a comparison using combined principal component analysis (CPCA), applied to monthly mean, mapped (Level 3) aerosol optical depth (AOD) product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). This technique effectively finds the common space-time variability in the multiple data sets by decomposing the combined AOD field. The results suggest that all of the sensors capture the globally important aerosol regimes, including dust, biomass burning, pollution, and mixed aerosol types. Nonetheless, differences are also noted. Specifically, compared with MISR and OMI, MODIS variability is significantly higher over South America, India, and the Sahel. MODIS deep blue AOD has a lower seasonal variability in North Africa, accompanied by a decreasing trend that is not found in either MISR or OMI AOD data. The narrow swath of MISR results in an underestimation of dust variability over the Taklamakan Desert. The MISR AOD data also exhibit overall lower variability in South America and the Sahel. OMI does not capture the Russian wild fire in 2010 nor the phase shift in biomass burning over East South America compared to Central South America, likely due to cloud contamination and the OMI row anomaly. OMI also indicates a much stronger (boreal) winter peak in South Africa compared with MODIS and MISR.

satellite observation↗

Impact of Evolving Isoprene Mechanisms on Simulated Formaldehyde: An Inter-comparison Supported by in Situ Observations from SENEX

Isoprene oxidation schemes vary greatly among gas-phase chemical mechanisms, with potentially significant ramifications for air quality modeling and interpretation of satellite observations in biogenic-rich regions. In this study, in situ observations from the 2013 SENEX mission are combined with a constrained O-D photochemical box model to evaluate isoprene chemistry among five commonly used gas-phase chemical mechanisms: CBO5, CB6r2, MCMv3.2, MCMv3.3.1, and a recent version of GEOS-Chem. Mechanisms are evaluated and inter-compared with respect to formaldehyde (HCHO), a high-yield product of isoprene oxidation. Though underestimated by all considered mechanisms, observed HCHO mixing ratios are best reproduced by MCMv3.3.1 (normalized mean bias = -15%), followed by GEOS-Chem (-17%), MCMv3.2 (-25%), CB6r2 (-32%) and CB05 (-33%). Inter-comparison of HCHO production rates reveals that major restructuring of the isoprene oxidation scheme in the Carbon Bond mechanism increases HCHO production by only approx. 5% in CB6r2 relative to CBO5, while further refinement of the complex isoprene scheme in the Master Chemical Mechanism increases HCHO production by approx. 16% in MCMv3.3.1 relative to MCMv3.2. The GEOS-Chem mechanism provides a good approximation of the explicit isoprene chemistry in MCMv3.3.1 and generally reproduces the magnitude and source distribution of HCHO production rates. We analytically derive improvements to the isoprene scheme in CB6r2 and incorporate these changes into a new mechanism called CB6r2-UMD, which is designed to preserve computational efficiency. The CB6r2-UMD mechanism mimics production of HCHO in MCMv3.3.1 and demonstrates good agreement with observed mixing ratios from SENEX (-14%). Improved simulation of HCHO also impacts modeled ozone: at approx. 0.3 ppb NO, the ozone production rate increases approx. 3% between CB6r2 and CB6r2-UMD, and rises another approx. 4% when HCHO is constrained to match observations.

isoprene↗

TOI-481 b and TOI-892 b: Two Long-period Hot Jupiters from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite

We present the discovery of two new 10 day period giant planets from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission, whose masses were precisely determined using a wide diversity of ground-based facilities. TOI-481 b and TOI-892 b have similar radii (0.99 ± 0.01 R(J) and 1.07 ± 0.02 R(J), respectively), and orbital periods (10.3311 days and 10.6266 days, respectively), but significantly different masses (1.53 ± 0.03 M(J) versus 0.95 ± 0.07 M(J), respectively). Both planets orbit metal-rich stars ([Fe/HG] = +0.26 ± 0.05 dex and [Fe/H] = +0.24 ± 0.05 for TOI-481 and TOI-892, respectively) but at different evolutionary stages. TOI-481 is a M(*) = 1.14 ± 0.02 Mꙩ, R(*) = 1.66 ± 0.02 Rꙩ G-type star (T(eff) = 5735 ± 72 K), that with an age of 6.7 Gyr, is in the turn-off point of the main sequence. TOI-892 on the other hand, is a F-type dwarf star (T(eff) = 6261 ± 80 K), which has a mass of M(*) = 1.28 ± 0.03 Mꙩ and a radius of R(*) = 1.39 ± 0.02 Rꙩ. TOI-481 b and TOI-892 b join the scarcely populated region of transiting gas giants with orbital periods longer than 10 days, which is important to constrain theories of the formation and structure of hot Jupiters.

Rafael Brahm↗

Comparing the Volatile Contents of Basaltic Rocks Through the Inner Solar System

Volatiles in planetary interiors play important roles in magma genesis, crust formation, eruption style, and even habitability of planetary surfaces. Allan Treiman’s career has touched on volatiles in the Moon, Mars, HED-parent body, the Earth, Venus, and other planetary bodies through studies of igneous rocks, volatile-bearing igneous minerals within these rocks, and the secondary alteration products produced from these rocks and minerals. His seminal work in many of these fields has inspired our careers and many others in our field. Here, we will build on and summarize what we know of the volatile content of basaltic rocks in the inner solar system. Specifically, this talk will focus on using volatile-bearing minerals (amphibole and apatite) along with bulk compositions to constrain the pre-eruptive, and potentially predegassed, volatile content of the magma and their source regions. We will then use these estimates to compare the volatile content of the Earth, Moon, Mars, Venus, and Mercury and what open questions there are for each planetary body.

Justin Filiberto↗

Geologic Mapping of the Lunar South Pole, Quadrangle LQ-30: Volcanic History and Stratigraphy of Schroedinger Basin

In this study we use recent images and topographic data to map the geology and geomorphology of the lunar South Pole quadrangle (LQ-30) at 1:2.5M scale [1-4] in accordance with the Lunar Geologic Mapping Program. Mapping of LQ-30 began during Mest's postdoctoral appointment and has continued under the PG&G Program, from which funding became available in February 2009. Preliminary map-ping and analyses have been done using base materials compiled by Mest, but properly mosaicked and spatially registered base materials are being compiled by the USGS and should be received by the end of June 2009. The overall objective of this research is to constrain the geologic evolution of the lunar South Pole (LQ-30: 60deg -90deg S, 0deg - +/-180deg ) with specific emphasis on evaluation of a) the regional effects of basin formation on the structure and composition of the crust and b) the spatial distribution of ejecta, in particular resulting from formation of the South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin and other large basins. Key scientific objectives include: 1) Constraining the geologic history of the lunar South Pole and examining the spatial and temporal variability of geologic processes within the map area. 2) Constraining the vertical and lateral structure of the lunar regolith and crust, assessing the distribution of impact-generated materials, and determining the timing and effects of major basin-forming impacts on crustal structure and stratigraphy in the map area. And 3) assessing the distribution of resources (e.g., H, Fe, Th) and their relationships with surface materials.

Mest, S. C.↗

Machine learning models for PDE constrained optimization

Partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization problems arise in a variety of scientific and engineering applications, such as topology optimization, electrodynamics, fluid dynamics, and structural dynamics. However, these problems are often challenging and computationally expensive to solve, due to the need to solve the PDEs within the optimization loop. One approach to reducing the computational cost of these methods while providing convergence guarantees is through inexact trust region methods; this method uses lower fidelity solutions of the PDE at early stages of the optimization and adjusts the required accuracy of inexact PDE solvers as the optimization progresses. In this work, we explore the use of machine learning based surrogate models with these inexact trust region methods. We first demonstrate the potential of this approach by using Gaussian processes as the surrogate model and test this on a simple PDE-constrained optimization problem. We then document explorations into improving the computational costs of evolutional deep neural network / neural Galerkin methods, with the eventual goal of using these methods with the inexact trust region algorithms. We are able to speed up these approaches, albeit at the cost of lower accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Aerosols at the Poles: An Aerocom Phase II Multi-Model Evaluation

Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes. The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (seasalt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60 degrees N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70 degrees S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (-0.12 W m(exp. -2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range.

Sand, Maria↗

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Geometrically constrained observability

This paper deals with observed processes in situations in which observations are available only when the state vector lies in certain regions. For linear autonomous observed processes, necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained for half-space observation regions. These results are shown to contain a theorem dual to a controllability result proved by the author for a linear autonomous control system whose control restraint set does not contain the origin as an interior point. Observability results relating to continuous observation systems and sampled data systems are presented, and an example of observing the state of an electrical network is given.

Brammer, R. F.↗

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing Algorithm

This innovation is a variation of a simulated-annealing optimization algorithm that uses a recursive-branching structure to parallelize the search of a parameter space for the globally optimal solution to an objective. The algorithm has been demonstrated to be more effective at searching a parameter space than traditional simulated-annealing methods for a particular problem of interest, and it can readily be applied to a wide variety of optimization problems, including those with a parameter space having both discrete-value parameters (combinatorial) and continuous-variable parameters. It can take the place of a conventional simulated- annealing, Monte-Carlo, or random- walk algorithm. In a conventional simulated-annealing (SA) algorithm, a starting configuration is randomly selected within the parameter space. The algorithm randomly selects another configuration from the parameter space and evaluates the objective function for that configuration. If the objective function value is better than the previous value, the new configuration is adopted as the new point of interest in the parameter space. If the objective function value is worse than the previous value, the new configuration may be adopted, with a probability determined by a temperature parameter, used in analogy to annealing in metals. As the optimization continues, the region of the parameter space from which new configurations can be selected shrinks, and in conjunction with lowering the annealing temperature (and thus lowering the probability for adopting configurations in parameter space with worse objective functions), the algorithm can converge on the globally optimal configuration. The Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing (RBSA) algorithm shares some features with the SA algorithm, notably including the basic principles that a starting configuration is randomly selected from within the parameter space, the algorithm tests other configurations with the goal of finding the globally optimal solution, and the region from which new configurations can be selected shrinks as the search continues. The key difference between these algorithms is that in the SA algorithm, a single path, or trajectory, is taken in parameter space, from the starting point to the globally optimal solution, while in the RBSA algorithm, many trajectories are taken; by exploring multiple regions of the parameter space simultaneously, the algorithm has been shown to converge on the globally optimal solution about an order of magnitude faster than when using conventional algorithms. Novel features of the RBSA algorithm include: 1. More efficient searching of the parameter space due to the branching structure, in which multiple random configurations are generated and multiple promising regions of the parameter space are explored; 2. The implementation of a trust region for each parameter in the parameter space, which provides a natural way of enforcing upper- and lower-bound constraints on the parameters; and 3. The optional use of a constrained gradient- search optimization, performed on the continuous variables around each branch s configuration in parameter space to improve search efficiency by allowing for fast fine-tuning of the continuous variables within the trust region at that configuration point.

Bolcar, Matthew↗

Mapping Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations

After 17 years, the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission ceased science operations in August 2023. For the final CALIPSO data products release (Version 5), the CALIPSO project seeks to improve the accuracy of its aerosol extinction by advancing knowledge of aerosol lidar ratios (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratios; LRs) for various aerosol types. The current algorithm assigns one LR value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. The CALIPSO team aims to improve the retrieval algorithm through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies for the same aerosol types. In this study, aerosol LRs are inferred through Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over oceans during daytime. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type. The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. This presentation will reveal findings that the 12-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). For example, smaller SSVFs (< 65%) and larger LRs (> 55 sr), are found near land masses (Fig. 1). This indicates the influence of advected anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., pollution and biomass burning smoke). In the remote oceans (i.e., regions likely less impacted by non-sea salt aerosols), the SSVFs are larger (> 95%) and the LRs are smaller (< 25 sr) (Fig. 1). A polynomial fit of the MODIS AOD constrained LRs to the corresponding GOCART SSVFs (intersect values of ~58 sr for SSVF of 0% and ~21 sr for SSVF of 100%) is further used to produce model-assisted climatological LR maps on seasonal scales. Additionally, we will show results of a LR validation analysis for which we compare the revised CALIPSO AODs obtained by applying the seasonal/regional constrained LRs against CALIPSO Version 4.51 Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD). While the majority of the presentation will focus on LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols, an overview of LR results will show preliminary results for other aerosol types over ocean, such as dust and elevated smoke. The technique demon-strated in this study highlights the benefits not only to the final planned CALIPSO data release in 2025, but similar methods can be applied to future spaceborne elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors (e.g., such as those associated with NASA’s proposed Atmosphere Observing System).

Travis D Toth↗

Models of Sector Aircraft Counts in the Presence of Local, Regional and Airport Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗