Results for “confidence measures” — Page 29

DOE OSTI2022

Search for Astrophysical Neutrinos from 1FLE Blazars with IceCube

The majority of astrophysical neutrinos have undetermined origins. The IceCube Neutrino Observatory has observed astrophysical neutrinos but has not yet identified their sources. Blazars are promising source candidates, but previous searches for neutrino emission from populations of blazars detected in ≳GeV gamma rays have not observed any significant neutrino excess. Recent findings in multimessenger astronomy indicate that high-energy photons, coproduced with high-energy neutrinos, are likely to be absorbed and reemitted at lower energies. Thus, lower-energy photons may be better indicators of TeV–PeV neutrino production. This paper presents the first time-integrated stacking search for astrophysical neutrino emission from MeV-detected blazars in the first Fermi Large Area Telescope low energy (1FLE) catalog using ten years of IceCube muon–neutrino data. The results of this analysis are found to be consistent with a background-only hypothesis. Assuming an E -2 neutrino spectrum and proportionality between the blazars MeV gamma-ray fluxes and TeV–PeV neutrino flux, the upper limit on the 1FLE blazar energy-scaled neutrino flux is determined to be 1.64 x 10 -12 TeV cm -2 s -1 at 90% confidence level. This upper limit is approximately 1% of IceCube’s diffuse muon–neutrino flux measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Nonlinear least squares - An aid to thermal property determination

Nonlinear least squares techniques can be used to determine effective thermal conductivity values from experimental data. Comparisons between measured and predicted conductivity values indicate that the analytically determined values can be used with confidence in performing thermal protection system analyses. A study was performed to compare the relative efficiencies of different minimizing techniques; techniques; the method of Peckham was the most efficient.

Curry, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Nonlinear least squares - An aid to thermal property determination.

Nonlinear least squares techniques can be used to determine effective thermal conductivity values from experimental data. Comparisons between measured and predicted conductivity values indicate that the analytically determined values can be used with confidence in performing thermal protection system analyses. A study was performed to compare the relative efficiencies of different minimizing techniques; the method of Peckham was the most efficient.

Curry, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Rotorcraft Blade Mode Damping Identification from Random Responses Using a Recursive Maximum Likelihood Algorithm

An on line technique is presented for the identification of rotor blade modal damping and frequency from rotorcraft random response test data. The identification technique is based upon a recursive maximum likelihood (RML) algorithm, which is demonstrated to have excellent convergence characteristics in the presence of random measurement noise and random excitation. The RML technique requires virtually no user interaction, provides accurate confidence bands on the parameter estimates, and can be used for continuous monitoring of modal damping during wind tunnel or flight testing. Results are presented from simulation random response data which quantify the identified parameter convergence behavior for various levels of random excitation. The data length required for acceptable parameter accuracy is shown to depend upon the amplitude of random response and the modal damping level. Random response amplitudes of 1.25 degrees to .05 degrees are investigated. The RML technique is applied to hingeless rotor test data. The inplane lag regressing mode is identified at different rotor speeds. The identification from the test data is compared with the simulation results and with other available estimates of frequency and damping.

Molusis, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The use of remotely sensed surface temperature and a spectral vegetation index for evaluating heat fluxes over the Konza Prairie

The relationship between surface temperature T(s) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is examined to determine whether it can be used to characterize latent heat fluxes (LEs). The regression of T(s) on NDVI is studied in the context of surface heat fluxes over the prairie with a limited data set for four flux-measurement sites. The 17 flux-measurement stations at the sites provided data that are consistently significant at the 99-percent confidence level for the regression of T(s) on NDVI. Variations in the regression slopes are found to correlate with variations in the ground heat flux but not with LE. Important components of the regression of T(s) on NDVI include fractional vegetation cover and surface-soil moisture conditions. The relationship is important for determining the relative contributions of the soil and vegetation components of an area's total evaporative flux.

Hope, A. S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Impact cratering at geologic stage boundaries

The largest known Cenozoic impact craters with the most accurately measured ages are found to correlate very closely with geologic stage boundaries. The level of confidence in this result is 98-99 percent even under the most pessimistic assumptions concerning dating errors. One or more large impacts may have led, in at least some cases, to the extinctions and first appearances of biotic species that mark many of the geologic stage boundaries.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Application of airborne field mill data for use in launch support

An airborne field mill (ABFM) system was implemented on a Learjet 36A and was used to collect electric-field and microphysical data for summertime convective clouds near Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center. This system is described and the method used for calibrating it is outlined. Data from this ABFM system were used to investigate the relationship between the strengths of electric fields at the boundaries of summer maritime convective clouds and the distances from these cloud where the fields could first be detected by this system. The relationship between the electric-field strengths at the boundaries of convective clouds and selected radar-measurable parameters of these clouds were also investigated. This study shows promise that the radar volume of these clouds can be used to estimate the order of magnitude electric-field intensity. It is possible that selected remote radar measurements could be incorporated into the launch commit criteria as a means of providing greater confidence and flexibility for determining safe stand-off distances for launch vehicles from convective clouds.

Harris-Hobbs, Ray↗

NASA NTRS2001

Precipitation Processes Derived from TRMM Satellite Data, Cloud Resolving Model and Field Campaigns

Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle and is a primary heat source for the atmosphere. The vertical distribution of latent-heat release, which is accompanied by rainfall, modulates the large-scale circulations of the tropics and in turn can impact midlatitude weather. This latent heat release is a consequence of phase changes between vapor, liquid. and solid water. Present large-scale weather and climate models can simulate cloud latent heat release only crudely thus reducing their confidence in predictions on both global and regional scales. In this paper, NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information and the Goddard Convective and Stratiform Heating (CSH) algorithm used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to October 2000. Rainfall latent heating and radar reflectively structure between ENSO (1997-1998 winter) and non-ENSO (1998-1999 winter) periods are examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e. Indian ocean vs west Pacific; Africa vs S. America) are also analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall latent heating maximum heating level), radar reflectively and SST are examined.

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Assessment of SAGE Version 6.1 Ozone Data Quality

The SAGE-II V6.1 ozone retrievals are shown to be of better precision at all levels and to be much more accurate than previous retrievals in the lower stratosphere below 20 km altitude. A filtering procedure for removing anomalous ozone profiles associated with volcanic aerosol/cloud effects and other identified artifacts in V6.1 ozone is described. The agreement between SAGE and ozonesondes in the mean is shown to be approximately 10% down to the tropopause. Relative to the sondes SAGE tends to slightly overestimate ozone (less than 5%) between 15 and 20 km altitude, and systematically underestimates ozone in the troposphere by approximately 30% in the regions between 8 km altitude and 2 km below the tropopause. The precisions (random errors) of SAGE ozone retrievals above 25 km altitude are estimated to be 4% or better; they are a factor of ten worse below 16 km altitude. Linear trends in the differences between coincident SAGE and ozonesondes measurement are generally less than 0.3 %/year and not significantly different from zero in 95% confidence intervals. Compared to V5.96 retrievals, ozone trend differences between 20 and 50 km altitude are approximately 0. 1 %/year, below 20 km altitude the SAGE II trends are more positive by approximately 0.2 %/year. For the 1984-1999 period the SAGE-II shows a localized ozone loss of -0.4(+/- 0.25) %/year (2gigma) in the tropics at 20 km altitude. In the lower stratosphere between 16 and 22 km altitudes, the SAGE shows significant ozone losses in the mid-latitudes in both Hemispheres during the 1979-1999 periods. The ozone trends range from -0.24(+/- 0.18) to -0.77(+/- 0.46) (2sigma)%/year. However in the 1984-1999 period, the downward trends are smaller (-0.07 to - 0.25 %/year) in this altitude range, and the trends in the integrated column from 12 to 17 km altitude in mid-latitudes (35 deg - 60 deg) are not significantly different from zero (0.1 +?- 0.6 (2sigma)%/year). Averaged over the tropics (20 deg S to 20 deg N) the ozone column above 15 km altitude exhibit a trend of -0.12 +/- 0.08 (2sigma)%/year.

Wang, Hsiang J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

AIR Model Preflight Analysis

The atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) ER-2 preflight analysis, one of the first attempts to obtain a relatively complete measurement set of the high-altitude radiation level environment, is described in this paper. The primary thrust is to characterize the atmospheric radiation and to define dose levels at high-altitude flight. A secondary thrust is to develop and validate dosimetric techniques and monitoring devices for protecting aircrews. With a few chosen routes, we can measure the experimental results and validate the AIR model predictions. Eventually, as more measurements are made, we gain more understanding about the hazardous radiation environment and acquire more confidence in the prediction models.

Tai, H.↗

NASA NTRS2019

LANDSAT 9 Thermal Infrared Sensor 2 Spectral Response Test: Updates and Perspective

The Thermal Infrared Sensor 2 (TIRS-2) pre-launch spectral characterization at telescope and detector subsystem level provided a strong indication that the spectral response requirements will be met. Confidence in the validity of these results was strengthened through comparison to component-level measurements. This work reviews the modifications to the test setup to reduce spectral response uncertainties further in preparation for instrument-level testing. We developed a methodology to improve alignment repeatability of the upgraded system. Preliminary indications show that the spectral response will contribute a relatively small amount to the overall TIRS-2 radiometric uncertainty budget, which is expected to meet its radiometric requirements. Through spectral response testing, as part of a comprehensive pre-launch test program, TIRS-2 is expected to achieve the performance necessary for a variety of environmental applications.

spectral response↗

NASA NTRS2019

Landsat 9 TIRS-2 Spectral Response Test: Updates & Perspective

The Thermal Infrared Sensor 2 (TIRS-2) pre-launch spectral characterization at telescope and detector subsystem level provided a strong indication that the spectral response requirements will be met. Confidence in the validity of these results was strengthened through comparison to component-level measurements. This work reviews the modifications to the test setup to reduce spectral response uncertainties further in preparation for instrument-level testing. We developed a methodology to improve alignment repeatability of the upgraded system. Preliminary indications show that the spectral response will contribute a relatively small amount to the overall TIRS-2 radiometric uncertainty budget, which is expected to meet its radiometric requirements. Through spectral response testing, as part of a comprehensive pre-launch test program, TIRS-2 is expected to achieve the performance necessary for a variety of environmental applications.

Pearlman, Aaron↗

NASA NTRS2022

Accelerance Decoupling: An Approach for Removing the Influence of the Test Stand from the Integrated Modal Test

The main objective for launch vehicle (LV) modal testing is to quantify the LV’s modal properties in the free-free state (post pad separation). However, given the size of most LV systems, free-free testing is a challenge and often not feasible. With this, a test stand, typically the launch pad itself, is introduced as the means of support. This shifts the challenge to developing robust numerical methods for removing the influence of the launch pad from the integrated system modal test. The Space Launch System (SLS) is no exception where the mobile launcher (ML) is used to support the vehicle for the integrated modal test (IMT). For the IMT, it is well understood from pre-test analysis with finite element models (FEMs) of the SLS and SLS coupled to ML that the ML has a significant influence on the SLS modal properties especially in the lower frequency range where the primary SLS bending modes exist. An accelerance decoupling (AD) method has been formulated for the purpose of “subtracting out” the influence of the ML from the IMT results. With AD, the SLS decoupled frequency response functions (FRFs) are directly extracted from the IMT FRFs. The subject approach is aimed to utilize measured data only and achieve a robust FRF decoupling scheme. AD is derived from a widely used coupling technique called “Receptance Coupling” (RC). The AD core equation reverses the RC process and utilizes a pair of auxiliary equations that enable the core equation to be resolved based on measured data only. In AD, the decoupled component FRFs are extracted from the coupled system FRFs with a transformation to remove the contribution of the “subtractive component”. This paper addresses the AD’s operational flexibility to resolve SLS free-free modal properties from coupled system measured data but also the possibility to include data from FEM if there is enough confidence in the FEM or if it is asserted that the effect to the final outcome is reasonable.

Accelerance decoupling↗

NASA NTRS2022

Accelerance Decoupling: An Approach for Removing the Influence of the Test Stand from the Integrated Modal Test

The main objective for launch vehicle (LV) modal testing is to quantify the LV’s modal properties in the free-free state (post pad separation). However, given the size of most LV systems, free-free testing is a challenge and often not feasible. With this, a test stand, typically the launch pad itself, is introduced as the means of support. This shifts the challenge to developing robust numerical methods for removing the influence of the launch pad from the integrated system modal test. The Space Launch System (SLS) is no exception where the mobile launcher (ML) is used to support the vehicle for the integrated modal test (IMT). For the IMT, it is well understood from pre-test analysis with finite element models (FEMs) of the SLS and SLS coupled to ML that the ML has a significant influence on the SLS modal properties especially in the lower frequency range where the primary SLS bending modes exist. An accelerance decoupling (AD) method has been formulated for the purpose of “subtracting out” the influence of the ML from the IMT results. With AD, the SLS decoupled frequency response functions (FRFs) are directly extracted from the IMT FRFs. The subject approach is aimed to utilize measured data only and achieve a robust FRF decoupling scheme. AD is derived from a widely used coupling technique called “Receptance Coupling” (RC). The AD core equation reverses the RC process and utilizes a pair of auxiliary equations that enable the core equation to be resolved based on measured data only. In AD, the decoupled component FRFs are extracted from the coupled system FRFs with a transformation to remove the contribution of the “subtractive component”. This paper addresses the AD’s operational flexibility to resolve SLS free-free modal properties from coupled system measured data but also the possibility to include data from FEM if there is enough confidence in the FEM or if it is asserted that the effect to the final outcome is reasonable.

Accelerance decoupling↗

NASA NTRS2022

Accelerance Decoupling: An Approach for Removing the Influence of the Test Stand from the Integrated Modal Test

The main objective for launch vehicle (LV) modal testing is to quantify the LV’s modal properties in the free-free state (post pad separation). However, given the size of most LV systems, free-free testing is a challenge and often not feasible. With this, a test stand, typically the launch pad itself, is introduced as the means of support. This shifts the challenge to developing robust numerical methods for removing the influence of the launch pad from the integrated system modal test. The Space Launch System (SLS) is no exception where the mobile launcher (ML) is used to support the vehicle for the integrated modal test (IMT). For the IMT, it is well understood from pre-test analysis with finite element models (FEMs) of the SLS and SLS coupled to ML that the ML has a significant influence on the SLS modal properties especially in the lower frequency range where the primary SLS bending modes exist. An accelerance decoupling (AD) method has been formulated for the purpose of “subtracting out” the influence of the ML from the IMT results. With AD, the SLS decoupled frequency response functions (FRFs) are directly extracted from the IMT FRFs. The subject approach is aimed to utilize measured data only and achieve a robust FRF decoupling scheme. AD is derived from a widely used coupling technique called “Receptance Coupling” (RC). The AD core equation reverses the RC process and utilizes a pair of auxiliary equations that enable the core equation to be resolved based on measured data only. In AD, the decoupled component FRFs are extracted from the coupled system FRFs with a transformation to remove the contribution of the “subtractive component”. This paper addresses the AD’s operational flexibility to resolve SLS free-free modal properties from coupled system measured data but also the possibility to include data from FEM if there is enough confidence in the FEM or if it is asserted that the effect to the final outcome is reasonable.

Accelerance decoupling↗

NASA NTRS2003

Decay Properties of K-Vacancy States in Fe X-Fe XVII

We report extensive calculations of the decay properties of fine-structure K-vacancy levels in Fe X-Fe XVII. A large set of level energies, wavelengths, radiative and Auger rates, and fluorescence yields has been computed using three different standard atomic codes, namely Cowan's HFR, AUTOSTRUCTURE and the Breit-Pauli R-matrix package. This multi-code approach is used to the study the effects of core relaxation, configuration interaction and the Breit interaction, and enables the estimate of statistical accuracy ratings. The Ksigma and KLL Auger widths have been found to be nearly independent of both the outer-electron configuration and electron occupancy keeping a constant ratio of 1.53 +/- 0.06. By comparing with previous theoretical and measured wavelengths, the accuracy of the present set is determined to be within 2 m Angstrom. Also, the good agreement found between the different radiative and Auger data sets that have been computed allow us to propose with confidence an accuracy rating of 20% for the line fluorescence yields greater than 0.01. Emission and absorption spectral features are predicted finding good correlation with measurements in both laboratory and astrophysical plasmas.

Mendoza, C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of the B s 0 → μ + μ - decay properties and search for the B 0 → μ + μ - and B s 0 → μ + μ - γ decays

An improved measurement of the decay $B^0_S$ → $μ^+μ^-$ and searches for the decays $B^0$ → $μ^+μ^+$ and $B^0_S$ → $μ^+μ^-γ$ are performed at the LHCb experiment using data collected in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 7, 8 and 13 TeV. corresponding to integrated luminosities of 1, 2 and 6 fb -1 , respectively. The $B^0_S$ → $μ^+μ^-$ branching fraction and effective lifetime are measured to be $\mathscr{B}$($B^0_S$ → $μ^+μ^-$) = (3.09$^{(+0.46+0.15)}_{(-0.43-0.11)}$) x 10 -9 and $τ(B^0_s →μ^+μ^-)$ = (2.07 ± 0.29 ± 0.03) ps, respectively, where the uncertainties include both statistical and systematic contributions. No significant signal for $B^0$ → $μ^+μ^-$ and $B^0_S$ → $μ^+μ^-γ$ decays is found and the upper limits $\mathscr{B}$($B^0$ → $μ^+μ^-$) < 2.6 x 10 -10 and $B^0_S$ → $μ^+μ^-γ$ < 2.0 x 10 -9 at 95% confidence level are determined, where the latter is limited to the range $m_{μμ}$ > 4.9 GeV/c 2 . Additionally, the ratio between the $B^0$ → $μ^+μ^-$ and $B^0_S$ → $μ^+μ^-$ branching fractions is measured to be $\mathscr{R}_{μ+μ-}$ < 0.095 at 95% confidence level. The results are in agreement with the Standard Model predictions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1976

Optoacoustic measurements of water vapor absorption at selected CO laser wavelengths in the 5-micron region

Measurements of water vapor absorption were taken with a resonant optoacoustical detector (cylindrical pyrex detector, two BaF2 windows fitted into end plates at slight tilt to suppress Fabry-Perot resonances), for lack of confidence in existing spectral tabular data for the 5-7 micron region, as line shapes in the wing regions of water vapor lines are difficult to characterize. The measurements are required for air pollution studies using a CO laser, to find the differential absorption at the wavelengths in question due to atmospheric constituents other than water vapor. The design and performance of the optoacoustical detector are presented. Effects of absorption by ambient NO are considered, and the fixed-frequency discretely tunable CO laser is found suitable for monitoring urban NO concentrations in a fairly dry climate, using the water vapor absorption data obtained in the study.

Menzies, R. T.↗