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At least 523 records · Page 29

From Bricks to Clicks: Mapping the White Space in Building Innovation

It is a critical national imperative to transform the buildings sector, yet innovation is impeded by deployment failures that leave promising technologies stranded. Conventional market reports and techno-economic analysis provide an insufficient understanding of markets and resource allocation for emerging building technologies. They omit crucial commercialization factors such as ecosystem maturity and adoption friction, where the coordinated participation of a network of suppliers, contractors, financiers, regulators, and integrators is required to scale solutions. This study addresses these gaps by introducing an evaluation framework grounded in front-line data from six years of the DOE's IMPEL incubator, comprising experience from 300 building-sector innovators and the adjacent, complex ecosystem. Our methodology synthesizes top-down market analysis with bottom-up, practitioner-level data across five megatrends: (M1) Affordable materials and industrialized construction; (M2) Healthy and efficient mechanical systems; (M3) Intelligent building operations; (M4) Buildings as grid assets; and (M5) High-density power and cooling for data centers and therein identify twelve "white space" technology opportunities. Next, we develop a multi-criteria scoring rubric to rank these opportunities based on parameters, i.e., Affordability, Quality of Life, Reliability, and Security, yielding composite ‘Demand’ and ‘Maturity’ indices. Our results indicate that the most significant white spaces may not be incremental products but a new class of ‘Ecosystem Enablers’, such as logistics platforms, orchestration layers, and automated compliance software that solve structural deployment gaps. This paper summarizes this transparent, evidence-based, practitioner-informed evaluation framework for policymakers and investors to re-evaluate policy and resource allocation and unlock scalable market transformation.

Singh, Reshma↗

National Mandates Won’t Save Us!: How to Design Energy Efficiency Policies that Address Institutional Barriers to Change

There are many national policies aimed at driving an increase in energy efficiency (EE) implementation. But how effective are they? Over the past 20 years, the U.S. government has established five legal authorities mandating federal agencies to prioritize energy-efficient products when purchasing. As the largest single buyer of energy-consuming products, energy-efficient purchasing across the federal sector would result in huge energy savings and emissions reductions. Despite this, our research has found that only ~55% of federal purchases currently meet existing requirements. If national mandates are not enough to ensure that federal agencies are buying efficient products, what is? To answer this question, we surveyed 161 procurement and sustainability staff from 26 different federal agencies. Findings revealed that several institutional factors (i.e., the roles, rules, and tools within an organization) play a key role in determining how likely federal buyers are to prioritize EE. Ensuring that federal agencies comply with existing EE requirements is foundational to achieving a clean energy future. This will require more than national mandates, but also the design of policies that successfully identify and address the institutional factors that must be changed in order to increase EE implementation. This paper presents an overview of the data collection and analysis methods for our study, as well as key survey findings and the insights they offer for overcoming institutional barriers to compliance with existing EE requirements. We conclude by discussing how these strategies can be broadly applied to improve the design of EE policies in the U.S. and beyond.

Morabito, Molly↗

Understanding the Costs and Barriers of Residential Electrical Panel and Service Upgrades

Upgrading electrical panels and services in U.S. homes represents a significant barrier to building modernization, imposing considerable costs, delays, and procedural uncertainties on homeowners, contractors, utilities, and building departments. Although cost databases document individual infrastructure activities, they rarely capture the integrated, whole-project perspective required to understand how electrical upgrades are planned, executed, and regulated. Existing research is often geographically constrained, narrowly scoped, or derived from limited samples, leaving significant knowledge gaps unaddressed. This study examines the timelines and costs associated with residential electrical panel and service upgrades using data from a national cross- sectional survey conducted in summer 2025. The survey captured responses from 140 stakeholders across 34 states, including building industry professionals, utility staff, and building department staff. Findings indicate that project duration and cost increase substantially with building size though patterns vary by infrastructure type. Most single-family and small multifamily projects were completed within 30 days, whereas medium and large multifamily buildings show longer and less predictable timelines. Service rating increases modestly extend project duration, but building type and size were the primary determinants of delays. Cost patterns were similar: customer-side equipment and panel replacements scale predictably with building size, while utility-side costs are highly variable, often triggered by threshold-driven infrastructure upgrades such as transformer replacements. Permit fees vary considerably between jurisdictions but generally represent a minor proportion of total project costs. These findings identify electrical upgrades as a significant barrier to residential building costs and highlight the need for improved stakeholder coordination, streamlined permitting, and strategies that reduce upgrade requirements while maintaining safety and code compliance.

Casquero-Modrego, Nuria↗

Accuracy of HVAC Load Predictions: Validation of EnergyPlus and DOE-2 using FLEXLAB Measurements

The aim of the project reported here was to better understand the level of accuracy of three building energy simulation (BES) engines (‘engines’) — EnergyPlus™, DOE-2.1e, and DOE-2.2 — by identifying and investigating significant deviations between the performance predicted by these engines and actual performance as measured in the FLEXLAB® test facility at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The specific test conditions included some of those prescribed in ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140 - Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs. Detailed measurements of FLEXLAB performance, including indoor temperatures and heat fluxes and air-flow and water flow rates and temperatures in the Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, together with hourly weather data, were recorded and used in analyzing the simulation results from EnergyPlus v8.8, DOE-2.2 v3.65 and DOE-2.1e v127. These engines are commonly used in the United States for building energy code compliance, federal, state, and utility incentives programs, as well as energy efficient design of new buildings and energy retrofit of existing buildings. Seven conventional overhead mixing ventilation scenarios were tested and each engine was found to have a similar level of agreement with the measurements of space-level heating and sensible cooling loads. These results provide useful information regarding the accuracy of these engines in predicting the cooling and heating load elements of whole building energy performance. This information is intended for practitioners who are concerned about transitioning between simulation tools with different engines and for managers of utility programs leveraging these tools for evaluating and/or projecting measure savings to be incentivized under their programs. The results of the comparisons of simulated and measured performance indicate that the predictions from all three engines are not significantly different. The 24-hour average value of the absolute mean bias indicates the likely magnitude of the error in any particular case. The average mean bias is reduced by cancelation of overprediction in one case by underprediction in another. The daytime absolute mean biases, which may be more important for both energy performance and occupant comfort, are ~6%, presumably because of the greater complexity involved in simulating in the presence of solar radiation. EnergyPlus typically overpredicts the cooling load and/or underpredicts the heating load by ~1.5% and the DOE-2 engines typically underpredict the cooling load by approximately the same amount. The Root Mean Square Error is relatively more sensitive to shorter term variations in the difference between predicted and measured loads; the three engines have similar values, ~10%, suggesting that the uncertainties in their predictions of peak loads may also be similar in magnitude. The implication of these results is that users, both designers and program analysts, can use EnergyPlus, DOE-2.1e, or DOE-2.2 to model conventional commercial buildings equipped with overhead mixing ventilation with a similar level of confidence. Further work is required to better understand the variability in the level of agreement between the engine predictions and FLEXLAB measurements, where a particular engine will agree well with FLEXLAB in some cases and not so well in others and another engine will agree or disagree in different cases. As the sources of this variability are identified and eliminated or reduced significantly, it is recommended that the experimental capabilities and methods developed in the study reported here should be applied to validating heating and cooling load calculations for spaces with different types of furniture and miscellaneous loads. These methods should then be applied to low energy space conditioning systems in EnergyPlus including, in particular, radiant slab and radiant ceiling panel cooling and heating systems and ‘mixed mode’ systems that combine mechanical cooling and natural ventilation systems, focusing on controls, including control of thermal mass. The work reported here addresses the conventional method of heating and cooling occupied spaces; other methods, such as the use of radiant heating and cooling systems have the potential to provide equivalent occupant comfort, or better, with lower energy consumption. These systems are addressed more explicitly in EnergyPlus but there is a need for empirical validation to give users the same level of confidence in modeling these systems that they have, or should have, in modeling conventional systems, based on the results presented here.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Semantic Interoperability to Enable Smart, Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

Achieving a widespread transition to grid-interactive, efficient buildings (GEBs) depends critically on there being sufficient interoperability among connected building systems. While many critical elements already exist at the technical interoperability level (TCP/IP, BACnet, etc.), a lack of interoperability in the semantic level hinders streamlined integration of interdependent applications. Semantics refers to expressing information about “things” in a way that can be consistently understood by applications. Key components of formalized semantics include identifying what a “thing” is (its “type”), defining general information about that “thing” (its characteristics or properties), and defining the appropriate relationships of that “thing” to other “things” (its function or role in a larger system). Although this might seem initially trivial, the success of smart building applications is highly dependent on maintaining consistent self-descriptive notions of the “things”. Without semantic interoperability, it is technically difficult, labor-intensive, and cost-prohibitive to enable three key objectives of GEBs: optimizing performance, automatically identifying and diagnosing faults, and delivering grid services. Industry, academia, and standards bodies have invested effort in developing information models to facilitate semantic interoperability, however, they have not been widely adopted across the U.S. commercial building portfolio. This paper will present a pathway to drive semantic interoperability through a three-pronged approach to be led by the DOE Building Technologies Office in partnership with NIST and multiple national laboratories comprising: 1) industry engagement and coordination across existing efforts; 2) a semantic interoperability standard that empowers building owners to identify and require interoperable attributes when procuring equipment and applications; 3) tools to assist in implementation and a test framework to verify compliance of products with semantic interoperability specifications. This approach is designed to accelerate the timeline for adoption of semantic interoperability specifications. The intent is to reduce soft costs associated with implementing advanced controls, fault detection and diagnostics, and other smart building technologies and use cases as a necessary step in achieving an energy efficient smart grid future.

Bergmann, Harry↗

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Model Year 2019 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Model Year 2020 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

2019 Results for Avian Monitoring at the Technical Area 36 Minie Site, Technical Area 39 Point 6, and Technical Area 16 Burn Ground at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos National Laboratory biologists in the Environmental Compliance and Protection Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) initiated a multi-year program in 2013 to monitor avifauna (birds) at two open detonation sites and one open burn site on LANL property. Monitoring results from these efforts were compared among years to monitor trends. The objectives of this study were to 1) determine whether LANL operations impact bird species richness, diversity, or abundance 2) evaluate trends in species abundance by feeding guild, and 3) examine occupancy and nest success of secondary-cavity nesting birds using nestboxes. LANL biologists completed the seventh year of this effort in 2019. Three bird point count surveys were completed at each of the treatment sites at the Technical Area (TA) 36 Minie site, the TA-39 point 6, and the TA-16 burn ground between May and July 2019. A total of 853 birds representing 53 species were recorded at the three treatment sites and compared to their associated controls. Occupancy and nest success data from nestboxes at treatment sites were compared with the overall avian nestbox monitoring network. In 2019 the species richness and diversity at the treatment sites were not statistically different from their associated controls. Rarefaction and extrapolation plots for all years through 2018 suggest that over time the species diversity was statistically different between treatments and controls, although the diversity was higher at the treatment sites than the control sites. Avian abundance showed more variability but treatment and controls were trending together year to year. The mean number of granivores, insectivores, and omnivores varies from year to year, but there is not a significant trend at any of the treatment sites. The dominant feeding guild at the treatment sites continues to be insectivores. The overall results from 2019 continue to indicate that operations at the three treatment sites are not negatively affecting bird populations. This long-term monitoring will continue to monitor for any changes over time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TA55-PMDS Programmatic Maintenance [Slides]

DOE Order 433.1B states: “The contractor must maintain real property assets in a manner that promotes operational safety, worker health, environmental compliance, property preservation and cost-effectiveness while meeting the program mission”. P950 Conduct of Maintenance serves as LANL’s Nuclear Maintenance Management Program specific to M/L 1 and M/L 2 SSC. PA-AP-01108 Maintenance Requirements for Programmatic Equipment defines the process for determining maintenance requirements, as defined in a maintenance plan, for all programmatic equipment owned by the Associate Directorate for Plutonium Science and Manufacturing (ADPSM) utilizing a formal, graded approach to maximize the reliability of permanently-installed programmatic equipment that does not perform a safety function. It bridges the gap between P950 and program equipment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Continuous Water Quality Sensing for FGD Wastewater

The coal fired plant power industry requires new solutions for on-line monitoring of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewaters for regulated trace metals to reduce recurring operating and off-site laboratory analysis costs and provide a high level of confidence of compliance with state and federal discharge guidelines. The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) developed an integrated water sensor package for continuous water quality monitoring of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewaters for concentration measurements of Selenium (Se). UAB utilized a diverse team of University Professors/Staff Members/Student(s) (Engineering and Innovative Technology Development Group), a University Affiliated Research Institution from the local area (Southern Research), and a cost sharing Industry Partner (Metrohm). The team developed and validated a proprietary wet chemistry batch process for water sample preparation; and implemented this process as a fully automated on-line monitor prototype system. This prototype system’s performance was evaluated in both the laboratory and during in-field deployment to a coal fired power plant. In both environments it was found that the prototype system was unable to recreate the batch process’s success at preparing FGD water samples for total Se measurements with a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) cyclic anodic stripping voltammetry (CSV) system. Through this experience, UAB has provided insight into a number of specific areas where improvements can be made with respect to the COTS systems used in this project to yield a more complete and competitive industry solution for on-line monitoring of total Se in industrial wastewater.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Comparison of Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit (LWRHU) Historical Testing to Special Form Testing Requirements

This paper compares the Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit (LWRHU) historical testing to Department of Transportation (DOT) Special Form criteria per 49 CFR Part 173, Shippers-General Requirements for Shipments and Packages, Section 469, Tests for special form Class 7 (radioactive) materials as specified in DOE-STD-1027, Hazard Categorization of DOE Nuclear Facilities. Compliance with the aforementioned criteria allows for the exclusion of radioactive sources from the facility’s nuclear material inventory. As part of a new program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), LWRHUs are planned to be moved into TA-55, PF-5 Power Source Assembly Area (PSAA) for assembly and testing activities. The PSAA Facility is categorized as a low hazard, non-nuclear facility per DOE STD-1027 and is described in TA55-PF-5-FHC-11-001, Facility Hazard Categorization of the PSAA at PF-5, TA-55. The Facility Hazard Categorization document states, there must be documentation that radioactive sources are engineered to pass the special form testing specified by DOT in 49 CFR 173.469, Tests for special form Class 7 (radioactive) materials or ANSI N43.6, Sealed Radioactive Sources - Classification. This paper documents the extensive historical environmental safety testing of the LWRHU and demonstrates its ability to survive potential launch safety accident scenarios. The testing results are used herein to demonstrate through a comparative analysis that the robust design of the LWRHU meets or exceeds the special form testing specifications in 49 CFR 173.469, enabling the LWRHU to be transported and handled in PF-5 in support of testing and assembly program.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Performance of Photovoltaic Systems Recorded by Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC)

This article analyzes data from 2,200 photovoltaic systems collected through the Open Solar Performance and Reliability Clearinghouse (oSPARC, 2018) to draw conclusions about the measured performance of the systems, how it compares to expectations, and how wide the variation is. The systems range in size from 2 kW to 1,200 kW, with an average size of 229 kW, and were activated in oSPARC between March 13, 2007 and Dec. 16, 2016. Data regarding co-incident insolation and ambient temperature are provided through the oSPARC platform for the population of systems and summarized here. Results indicate that - after correcting for measured insolation, derating for temperature, and correcting for balance-of-system efficiency and degradation as a result of system age - the performance ratio of these 2,200 systems averages 91.7%. Adjusting for known parameters such as age and efficiency, the ratio would ideally be 100%. Thus, the 'underperformance' of this system sample is measured at 9.3% and suggests that as much as 9.3% could be recovered if the systems were caused to perform as expected through optimal operation and maintenance. Efforts to correlate the performance ratio with environmental conditions resulted in very low coefficients of regression, but the method already normalizes for actual site insolation and temperature, which are responsible for much of the site-specific variation. An exemption is air-quality nonattainment areas, where the measured performance of plants averages 86.9% and is consistently lower than the average of 95.9% in areas that are in compliance with air quality standards, likely because of particulate matter such as diesel soot exacerbating the soiling rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Multi-cell Failure Propagation

Failure propagation testing is of increasing interest to the designers and end users of battery systems. One of the chief difficulties, however, is choosing an appropriate initiation method to perform the test. Single cell abuse testing is typically used to initiate thermal runaway but this can involve a large amount of additional energy injected into the system. It is assumed that this will have some impact on the behavior of a propagating thermal runaway event, but there is little data available as to how significant this would be. Further, it is ultimately difficult to develop viable propagation tests for compliance and public safety activities without better knowledge of how test methods will impact the results. This work looks at propagating battery failure with a variety of chemistries, formats, configurations and initiation methods to determine the level of significance of the chosen initiation method on the test results. We have ultimately found while there is some impact on the detailed results of propagation testing, in most cases other factors, particularly the energy density of the system play a much greater role in the likelihood of a propagation event consuming an entire battery. We have also provided some guidelines for test design to support best practices in testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Performance Assessment for the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (FY 2019 Annual Status Report)

DOE O 435.1 and DOE M 435.1-1 require that a determination of continued adequacy of the performance assessment (PA), composite analysis, and disposal authorization statement (DAS) be annually, and it must consider the results of data collection and analysis from research, field studies, and monitoring as well as update any Radioactive Waste Management Basis documents. Beginning in 1996, the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) has accepted low-level radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes that were generated during cleanup activities at the Hanford Site. ERDF is composed of a series of cells (currently 10) or disposal areas and can accommodate future design expansions as needed. During this reporting period (fiscal year 2019, October 1, 2018, to September 30, 2019). approximately 139,721 U.S. tons of waste was disposed at ERDF. From inception through September 30, 2019, ERDF has received approximately 18.5 million U.S. tons of waste, which equates to consumption of approximately 88% of the disposal volume. As a condition of the DAS, disposal operations within ERDF must be in accordance with the waste acceptance criteria (WAC) that provide specific radionuclide disposal limits, waste from restrictions, and descriptions of acceptable waste packages in compliance with DOE M 435-1.1 requirements. The ERDF WAC stipulates that waste destined for disposal at ERDF be controlled based on source, physical form, and containment concentration and activity levels

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Detailed Vehicle Simulation Process to Support CAFE and CO 2 Standards (MY 2021–2026 Final Rule Analysis)

In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), requiring standards for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), and charging the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) with the establishment and enforcement of these standards. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated these responsibilities to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). NHTSA has contracted the DOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) to provide analytical support for NHTSA’s regulatory and analytical activities related to fuel economy standards. Unlike long-standing safety and criteria pollutant emissions standards, fuel economy standards apply to manufacturers’ overall fleets rather than to individual vehicle models. In developing the standards, NHTSA made use of the CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System (the “CAFE model”), which was developed by DOT’s Volpe Center for the 2005-2007 CAFE rulemaking and has been continually updated since. The model is the primary tool used by the agency to evaluate potential CAFE stringency levels by applying technologies incrementally to each manufacturer’s fleet until the requirements under consideration are met. The CAFE model relies on numerous technology-related and economic inputs such as market forecasts and technology cost and effectiveness estimates; these inputs are categorized by vehicle classification, technology synergies, phase-in rates, cost learning curve adjustments, and technology “decision trees.” The Volpe Center assists NHTSA in the development of the engineering and economic inputs to the CAFE model by analyzing the application of potential technologies to the current automotive industry vehicle fleet to determine the feasibility of future CAFE standards, the associated costs, and the benefits of the standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗