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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Explainable Machine-Learning Model for Compensatory Reserve Measurement: Methods for Feature Selection and the Effects of Subject Variability

Tracking vital signs accurately is critical for triaging a patient and ensuring timely therapeutic intervention. The patient’s status is often clouded by compensatory mechanisms that can mask injury severity. The compensatory reserve measurement (CRM) is a triaging tool derived from an arterial waveform that has been shown to allow for earlier detection of hemorrhagic shock. However, the deep-learning artificial neural networks developed for its estimation do not explain how specific arterial waveform elements lead to predicting CRM due to the large number of parameters needed to tune these models. Alternatively, we investigate how classical machine-learning models driven by specific features extracted from the arterial waveform can be used to estimate CRM. More than 50 features were extracted from human arterial blood pressure data sets collected during simulated hypovolemic shock resulting from exposure to progressive levels of lower body negative pressure. A bagged decision tree design using the ten most significant features was selected as optimal for CRM estimation. This resulted in an average root mean squared error in all test data of 0.171, similar to the error for a deep-learning CRM algorithm at 0.159. By separating the dataset into sub-groups based on the severity of simulated hypovolemic shock withstood, large subject variability was observed, and the key features identified for these sub-groups differed. This methodology could allow for the identification of unique features and machine-learning models to differentiate individuals with good compensatory mechanisms against hypovolemia from those that might be poor compensators, leading to improved triage of trauma patients and ultimately enhancing military and emergency medicine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Informing forest carbon inventories under the Paris Agreement using ground-based forest monitoring data

Human interactions with forests have shaped Earth's climate for millennia and will continue to do so as we target net-zero emission goals. Accurately characterizing these climate impacts requires making reliable forest carbon data available for forest monitoring and planning. Here, we develop a semi-automated process for submitting forest carbon measurements from the largest relevant scientific database to the International Panel on Climate Change's Emission Factor Database, which currently has sparse forest carbon data. Building this bridge from scientific research to international policy is an important step towards managing forests in a net-zero motivated future. Humans have been influencing Earth's climate via transformative impacts on forests for millennia, and forests are now recognized as critical to climate change mitigation under the Paris Agreement. The efficacy of climate change mitigation planning and reporting depends on quality data on forest carbon (C) stocks and changes. The Emission Factor Database (EFDB) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is intended to be a definitive source for such data, but needs comprehensive and well-documented data to be so. To facilitate submission of forest C estimates from scientific studies to EFDB, we develop and document a process for semi-automated data submission from the Global Forest C database (ForC v4.0), which is the largest compilation of ground-based forest C estimates. We then assess the data currently available through ForC and provide recommendations for improving forest data collection, analysis, and reporting. As of September 2024, ForC contained ~19,286 records potentially relevant to EFDB, 1068 of which had been submitted and posted to EFDB. These represented 19% of the total EFDB records for forest land. Records were unevenly distributed across variables and geographic regions. ForC records (37%) reviewed could not be submitted because the original publication lacked required information. In the future, ground-based forest C estimates should target gaps in the record, and studies should ensure that they report all information necessary for inclusion in EFDB. Given that climate change is rapidly impacting the world's forests, timely reporting of recent estimates will be critical to accurate forest C inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison and validation of the QuEChERSER mega-method for determination of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in foods by liquid chromatography with high-resolution and triple quadrupole mass spectrometry

Instances of food contamination with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) continue to occur globally, but sample preparation and analytical methods are quite limited and often monitor for a small percentage of known PFAS. This study aimed to evaluate, validate, and compare performance of two instruments with the recently developed “quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, safe, efficient, and robust” (QuEChERSER) sample preparation mega-method – a method developed to monitor chemicals over a broad range of physicochemical properties. Initial evaluation of the QuEChERSER mega-method for determination of PFAS in food demonstrated recoveries, matrix interferences, and co-extractive removal comparable to (or better than) US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) methods. Subsequent validation of QuEChERSER in beef, catfish, chicken, pork, liquid eggs, and powdered eggs on a high-resolution mass spectrometer achieved acceptable recoveries (70–120%) and precision (RSDs ≤20%) for all 33 target analytes at the 1 and 5 ng g –1 levels and 67–88% of analytes at the 0.1 ng g –1 level, depending on the matrix. Additional validation was performed by tandem mass spectrometry on a triple quadrupole instrument. This approach provided no non-detects and better recoveries at the 0.1 ng g –1 level than the HRMS method but exhibited more variability at 1 and 5 ng g –1 spiking levels. Analysis of NIST SRMs 1946 and 1947 gave accuracies of 70–117%. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the capability of combining PFAS analysis with a mega-method previously validated for 350 analytes, while collecting non-target data for future retrospective analysis of emerging alternatives with a high-resolution mass spectrometry method.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Harmonizing solar induced fluorescence across spatial scales, instruments, and extraction methods using proximal and airborne remote sensing: A multi-scale study in a soybean field

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been widely used to track vegetation photosynthesis at different scales ranging from in-situ measurements to satellite products. Airborne platforms sample SIF data at a spatial scale intermediate between in-situ and satellite, matching that of ground measurement (e.g. flux tower footprints and other field sampling), enabling us to explore causes of SIF variation and validate satellite-based SIF products. However, harmonizing SIF across sensors and platforms (correcting for systematic errors to yield a consistent, comparable SIF product) is challenging because SIF can be retrieved in different absorption windows, with different instruments and methods complicating the comparison between different observational levels (i.e., ground, airborne, satellites) and between sites equipped with different instruments with varying optical properties (spectral resolution and sampling intervals, spatial resolution). Additionally, the spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric properties can influence the retrieval of the weak SIF signal. Because of these complications, direct comparisons of airborne and ground SIF across scales are rarely attempted. Here, in this study, we combined airborne SIF data with simultaneous ‘ground truth’ data collected by stationary and mobile platforms in a soybean field in Nebraska, USA. In this effort, we tested several SIF extraction methods, including Fraunhofer Line Discrimination (FLD), improved Fraunhofer Line Discrimination (iFLD), Spectral Fitting Method (SFM), SpecFit, and a Singular Vector Decomposition (SVD) method. The SpecFit method was sensitive to the 715–740 nm water bands and removing the water bands in the fitting process yielded better agreement between the airborne and ground SIF spectra. Accurate estimation of the ground level downwelling irradiance obtained by ground measurements over a calibration target improved agreement between airborne and ground SIF retrievals at the O 2 A band, and allowed us to derive a SIF dataset with improved agreement across platforms and sampling scales. This experimental approach provided a method for generating comparable SIF signals across instruments, methods and platforms, which is critical to understanding the SIF-GPP relationship at different scales and to cross-validate the diversity of platforms used for satellite products calibration and validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A database of battery materials auto-generated using ChemDataExtractor

A database of battery materials is presented which comprises a total of 292,313 data records, with 214,617 unique chemical-property data relations between 17,354 unique chemicals and up to five material properties: capacity, voltage, conductivity, Coulombic efficiency and energy. 117,403 data are multivariate on a property where it is the dependent variable in part of a data series. The database was auto-generated by mining text from 229,061 academic papers using the chemistry-aware natural language processing toolkit, ChemDataExtractor version 1.5, which was modified for the specific domain of batteries. The collected data can be used as a representative overview of battery material information that is contained within text of scientific papers. Public availability of these data will also enable battery materials design and prediction via data-science methods. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first auto-generated database of battery materials extracted from a relatively large number of scientific papers. We also provide a Graphical User Interface (GUI) to aid the use of this database.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for top squark pair production using dilepton final states in ${\text {p}}{\text {p}}$ collision data collected at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {TeV} $

A search is presented for supersymmetric partners of the top quark (top squarks) in final states with two oppositely charged leptons (electrons or muons), jets identified as originating from ${\text {b}}$quarks, and missing transverse momentum. The search uses data from proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {TeV} $ collected with the CMS detector, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137$\,{\text {fb}}^{-1}$. Hypothetical signal events are efficiently separated from the dominant top quark pair production background with requirements on the significance of the missing transverse momentum and on transverse mass variables. No significant deviation is observed from the expected background. Exclusion limits are set in the context of simplified supersymmetric models with pair-produced lightest top squarks. For top squarks decaying exclusively to a top quark and a lightest neutralino, lower limits are placed at $95\%$ confidence level on the masses of the top squark and the neutralino up to 925 and 450$\,\text {GeV}$, respectively. If the decay proceeds via an intermediate chargino, the corresponding lower limits on the mass of the lightest top squark are set up to 850$\,\text {GeV}$ for neutralino masses below 420$\,\text {GeV}$. For top squarks undergoing a cascade decay through charginos and sleptons, the mass limits reach up to 1.4$\,\text {TeV}$ and 900$\,\text {GeV}$ respectively for the top squark and the lightest neutralino.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature, Humidity, and Time-Lapse Video Data from Yosemite National Park, Water Year 2024

This dataset contains time-lapse imagery and distributed measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, dew point, and soil temperature across Yosemite National Park from October 2023 to September 2024. Instruments were deployed at 10 sites in two cross-valley transects as part of the DOE Grant: Seasonal Cycles Unravel Mysteries of Missing Mountain Water organized by Jessica Lundquist (University of Washington), Rosemary Carroll (Desert Research Institute), and Ethan Gutmann (National Center for Atmospheric Research). The data are intended to support hydrologic modeling efforts to better resolve the fate of mountain water, and are published to support studies of surface climate or hydrologic processes in complex terrain. Measurements were collected with low-cost data loggers installed 2 m high on evergreen trees or buried just below the soil surface. A time-lapse camera at one site captures valley-scale seasonal snow cover variability.Dataset files are organized by site and variable (air measurements, ground measurements, or time-lapse video). Air and ground measurements are packaged in LoggerData.zip, and time-lapse imagery is compiled into a short video stored in TimelapseVideos.zip. File-level metadata contains details for each file included in the dataset. A data dictionary provides units and descriptions for column or row names in all files. The locations metadata file describes site characteristics, locations, and associated GPS methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRACER-Tethersonde VOC data

One objective of TRACER-Tethersonde campaign was to deploy a volatile organic compound (VOC) sampler on the Tethered Balloon System (TBS) to create vertical profiles and characterize VOC composition. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are highly reactive precursor species that undergo atmospheric processing to form secondary products, including aerosol. VOC emissions are influenced by many factors that include but are not limited to temperature, time of day, local anthropogenic activities, and local vegetation, which result in large spatiotemporal variability. The vertical distribution of volatile species is crucial for understanding gas-phase processing for particle production but challenging to accomplish using currently available sampling devices. The standalone sampler built during the campaign enabled the execution of robust experimental designs, including sample collection using resin tubes at multiple altitudes on subsequent flights. Following field sampling, resin tubes were transported back to Baylor University for chemical analysis using a Markes International thermal desorption unit coupled with a gas chromatograph-tandem mass spectrometer (Thermo Scientific). The target analyte list includes biogenic and anthropogenic VOCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the nature of two-photon transitions for a collection of molecules in a Fabry–Perot cavity

Here, we investigate the effect of a cavity on nonlinear two-photon transitions of a molecular system and we analyze how such an effect depends on the cavity quality factor, the field enhancement, and the possibility of dephasing. We find that the molecular response to strong light fields in a cavity with a variable quality factor can be understood as arising from a balance between (i) the ability of the cavity to enhance the field of an external probe and promote multiphoton transitions more easily and (ii) the fact that the strict selection rules on multiphoton transitions in a cavity support only one resonant frequency within the excitation range. Although our simulations use a classical level description of the radiation field (i.e., we solve Maxwell–Bloch or Maxwell–Liouville equations within the Ehrenfest approximation for the field–molecule interaction), based on experience with this level of approximation in the past studies of plasmonic and polaritonic systems, we believe that our results are valid over a wide range of external probing.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Collaborative Research: Understanding air‐sea feedbacks to the MJO through process evaluation of observations and E3SM experiments (Final Technical Report)

This project explored the role of tropical oceans in regulating cloud populations within the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)–a large-scale tropical weather disturbance that influences extreme weather events across the globe by affecting the position of the jet stream and patterns of moisture transport. Our project sought to 1) document ocean feedback strength to the MJO in climate models, 2) understand how air-sea interactions affect the intensity, organization, and propagation of MJO convection, 3) utilize existing observations to identify sources of model bias for tropical air-sea interactions, and 4) better understand the effects of slow and fast ocean variability on MJO cloudiness. We found that transfers of heat and moisture across the air-sea interface (i.e., surface fluxes) in most climate models are over-supportive in maintaining MJO convection and under-supportive in propagating MJO convection. This can lead to misrepresentations in the frequency of extreme weather events across the globe through erroneous MJO feedbacks to jet stream position and moisture transport. Furthermore, using observations collected by ocean moorings across the tropical oceans, we showed that most models greatly overestimate surface evaporation in the subtropics, and that this bias is likely one contributor to a pervasive bias among climate models in their ability to simulate the mean state of rainfall over the tropical oceans (i.e., the “double ITCZ bias”). Replacing the default surface flux algorithm in two climate models with a state-of-the-art surface flux algorithm modestly reduced the double ITCZ bias in those models. Our work produced two model diagnostics packages that are now publicly available through DOE and NOAA model diagnostics archives. The first, the Analysis of Scales of Precipitation (ASoP) diagnoses scales of precipitation variability across space and time, with temporal resolution as fine as the model integration timestep. The second, the air-sea flux diagnostic diagnoses model surface fluxes and allows direct comparison of model fluxes to observations without having to recompute fluxes using model output and a state-of-the-art flux algorithm. These diagnostics, which were developed using climate models, can be readily applied to regional and global forecast model output to improve forecasts for the benefit of society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights into catalyst degradation during alkaline water electrolysis under variable operation

Energy conversion technologies that are key to decarbonization efforts face significant durability challenges due to variable operation. Understanding the impact of variable operation on catalytic stability and identifying the key variables that dictate degradation is crucial for developing robust technologies. Here, we present a comprehensive investigation of the effects of variable operation on liquid alkaline water electrolysis. Our findings reveal that variable operation induces severe degradation of Ni, Fe, and Co catalytic films that is not observed during steady-state operation. By systematically interrogating the electrode discharge during simulated shutdown tests using Raman spectroscopy and mass spectrometry techniques, we uncover significant alterations caused by reverse currents in real time. These include changes in crystal structure, composition, film thickness, electronic conductivity, and dissolution rates. Lab-scale electrolyzer experiments further highlight the impact of variable operation on catalyst materials under relevant conditions. Finally, we provide guidelines for leveraging these insights to advance electrocatalysis research. This work underscores the importance of integrating realistic stressors into stability testing and offers practical guidelines for catalyst design, performance evaluation, and industrial implementation. Collectively, insights from this study will drive the development of more resilient energy conversion technologies.

Marquez, Raul A. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Earlier snowmelt increases the strength of the carbon sink in montane meadows unequally across the growing season

1. Warming temperatures are changing winters, leading to earlier snowmelt. This shift can lead to an earlier and potentially longer growing season, which in turn may affect various plant-mediated ecosystem functions. Despite its relevance in the carbon cycle, we still know little about how earlier snowmelt impacts the carbon balance in ecosystems over the growing season, for example, does it only shift phenology, or does it affect the overall carbon uptake? Most studies rely on interannual variability in snowmelt timing, making it difficult to isolate snowmelt effects from other confounding variables, for example, temperature and moisture anomalies. To address this uncertainty, we investigated how experimentally advancing snowmelt affects the carbon cycling of montane meadows across the growing season. 2. We experimentally advanced the snowmelt date in a montane meadow by approximately 12 days and collected data every 2 weeks throughout the growing season, including net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), plant composition, and shrub, graminoid, and forb biomass. 3. Early in the growing season, GPP was higher in the early snowmelt plots, though this effect decreased as the growing season progressed. Our modelling of cumulative NEE showed a possible 22% increase in the carbon sink strength with earlier snowmelt. The effect was strongest in the early spring and diminished as the growing season progressed, with control plots being a greater carbon sink in the later season. Graminoid biomass was 47% higher in plots with earlier snowmelt, but there was no change in total biomass. 4. Synthesis. As winters warm and snowmelt occurs earlier, plant productivity will shift earlier in the growing season, and montane meadows may become a stronger carbon sink. However, this effect will differ seasonally, altering the carbon balance in montane meadows.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2025 Update

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that include utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. We present the suite of projected cost reductions collected from the literature as well as the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work. Storage cost projections are $\$$152/kWh, $\$$247/kWh, and $\$$349/kWh in 2035 and $\$$111/kWh, $\$$184/kWh, and $\$$333/kWh in 2050 for the low, mid, and high cases respectively. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

SolarSMART 2020 Georgia Survey

The SolarSMART 2020 Georgia Survey dataset provides results from a survey of 1,544 residents of the State of Georgia above the age of 18 on their perceptions of photovoltaic solar energy. The survey includes the following: demographic information for each respondent, their location in the state (by ZIP Code); the type of house they reside within; whether they have or have not adopted solar energy (and if so, how did they adopt solar energy); their personal views and perceptions of solar energy both for themselves and within their community; and their perceptions of who within Georgia and across the United States would or would not be inclined to adopt solar. Respondents were asked to provide their responses to questions addressing the following issues as they pertained to both themselves and their perceptions of others (Georgians and Americans writ large): (a) perception of how home type shape solar adoption; (b) perceptions of personal values (interpersonal, political, environmental); (c) the design of solar and the marketing of it; (d) financial dimensions of adopting solar energy; (d) and favorability towards new technologies. This data was collected via an online survey through a third-party distributor between June and September of 2020. Respondents were from 151 of the 159 counties of the State of Georgia, with representation of both urban and rural residents. In total, the dataset includes 171 variables, with one being an open-ended question coded by the research team. Variables include demographic characteristics (personal, housing, location), multiple-choice single answer, ranked-choice responses to different statements about solar, and a series of two digital map exercises where respondents highlighted geographic regions (states or parts of Georgia) based on whether the believe residents there do, do not, or they do not know if the respondents do or do not adopt solar.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Relating storm-snow avalanche instabilities to data collected from the Differential Emissivity Imaging Disdrometer (DEID)

Storm-snow avalanches are challenging to forecast due to complex alpine terrain and during rapidly changing weather conditions. They can result in loss of lives and significant economic impact. We describe how a new device that continuously measures with high-frequency snowflake mass, size, density, and type, the Differential Emissivity Imaging Disdrometer (DEID), and show how the DEID can be used to aid avalanche forecasting when coupled with a storm-snow stability model. DEID measurements of snow accumulation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow density obtained during seventeen storms taken at the mid-Collins Snow-Study Plot at Alta Ski Area in Utah's Central Wasatch mountain range during winter 2020–2021 show excellent agreement with infrequent manual measurements. Additionally, two new variables, the Shape Density Index (SDI) and Complexity, are proposed and used to classify snowflake habit and estimate storm-snow shear strength. We illustrate how these DEID-derived data can be used to identify layers of concern in the storm snow such as density inversions, in real-time without digging snow pits. Furthermore, the DEID-data are used to run four variations of the SNOw Slope Stability model (SNOSS) for the storms investigated. The results are evaluated with data collected from tilt-board tests, infrasound measurements, and visual observations of avalanches. For a total fourteen storms analyzed, the DEID-driven SNOSS-modeled minimum stability index predicts the general stability of the storm-snow as indicated by observed avalanches, both natural and of unknown cause. Finally, the results provide a promising approach for nowcasting instabilities within storm-snow layers with a single instrument.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temporal patterns of fine‐root dynamics have little influence on seasonal soil CO 2 efflux in a mixed, mesic forest

Among the contributors to soil CO 2 efflux, there remains uncertainty about the contribution of root activity to the overall soil efflux. Soil water and temperature frequently have been used to predict a large portion of the variation in soil CO 2 efflux. We hypothesized that fine-root dynamics explain most of the remaining variability in soil CO 2 efflux that cannot be explained by soil temperature and water content. We anticipated that seasonal increases in root production, mortality via decomposition, and standing crop would result in corresponding increases in soil CO 2 efflux. We tested our hypotheses by collecting and analyzing two years of minirhizotron and soil chamber CO 2 flux data from plots distributed throughout the Shale Hills Catchment of the Susquehanna-Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory in Central Pennsylvania, USA. Here we showed that: (1) seasonal fluctuations in fine-root dynamics yielded only a very small increase in the predictability of soil CO 2 efflux; (2) fine-root mortality effects on soil CO 2 efflux were strongly tied to soil temperature; (3) fluctuations in fine-root presence or standing mass independent of temperature and moisture had little effect on soil CO 2 efflux; and (4) new fine-root length and root length mortality had limited impacts on soil CO 2 efflux rates. We conclude that, at least in temperate forests on rocky soils, characterizing fine-root dynamics may provide only limited improvement in the estimation of soil CO 2 efflux.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers of Water Use and Their Spatio‐Temporal Patterns for Small and Mid‐Sized Cities in the Contiguous United States

This study explores the drivers of urban water use and their spatial-temporal patterns in 142 small and mid-sized cities across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) by analyzing the data directly collected from these cities and using advanced machine learning techniques. We identify five distinguished clusters across CONUS, each showing unique trends of the impact of drivers on water use. We find that socioeconomic factors significantly influence water use in eastern and southwestern cities, while climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature range dominate in central and northwestern regions. Temporal analysis reveals the impacts of major socioeconomic and climatic disruptions on urban water use in the period 2011–2021, including the COVID lockdown, the rapid growth of data centers, and the drought of 2012. In addition, our analysis suggests that economic growth in small and mid-sized US cities continues to be accompanied by rising water use, contrasting with the opposite trend observed in large cities in prior studies. This implies that as smaller cities develop, their water use may increase above current levels until incomes reach a higher threshold, highlighting the need to improve water use efficiency. This study also presents useful insights for developing effective water demand management strategies in response to climatic variability and socioeconomic growth in small and mid-sized cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗