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At least 523 records · Page 29

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗

L2 Earth Atmosphere Observatory: Formation Guidance, Metrology and Control Synthesis

The Earth Observatory Formation at L2, a Lagrange libration point, is a unique large aperture (25 m diameter) space telescope concept that will improve the knowledge and understanding of dynamic, chemical and radiative mechanisms that cause changes in the atmosphere, and can lead to the development of models and techniques to predict short and long-term climate changes. The results of this concept definition study show that the telescope concept is feasible, and can have technology readiness in the 2020 time frame. Further advanced development in several subsystems is needed, such as higher efficiency Xenon ion thrusters with throttling, and optical quality large membrane mirror with active shape control. It presents an analysis and solution of guidance, sensing, control, and propulsion problems for a formation of two spacecraft on the Sun-Earth line in the neighborhood of the Sun-Earth L2 point, that observes Earth s atmosphere during continuous solar occultation by the Earth. A system architecture is described for the observatory, and its components that include unique mission specific metrology. The formation must follow a powered trajectory with strictly limited fuel use to observe solar occultation. A configuration of ion thrusters and reaction wheels for translation and attitude control is designed along with algorithms for orbit following and formation control. Simulation results of the orbital and formation dynamics are presented that verify performance of the control systems.

Earth Atmosphere Observatory Formation↗

Data for Zheng et al. (2025), "AquaMEND: Reconciling multiple impacts of salinization on soil carbon biogeochemistry"

Soil salinization, exacerbated by climate change, poses a global threat to coastal ecosystems and soil function. Salinity affects soil carbon cycling by directly impacting microbial activity and indirectly altering soil physicochemical properties, but current models inadequately represent these complexities. This dataset contains the observational and modeling data from Zheng et al. (2025), which described a process-based modeling framework that couples soil solution chemistry with microbial carbon cycling reactions to study the impacts of soil salinization. This conceptual model is implemented numerically into the open-source geochemical program PHREEQC 3.0 (Parkhurst and Appelo, 2013). This dataset consists of: - Figure2_AquaMEND_salinity_buffer: Contains model simulation outputs to assess the impact of three different cation exchange and surface complexation processes on salinity buffering (Fig. 2 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure3_Salinity_function: Contains salinity function fitting for literature data (Fig. 3 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure4_AquaMEND_microbial_mechanisms: Contains model simulation outputs for testing various microbial process-based hypotheses related to soil salinization, including microbial mortality, carbon use efficiency (CUE), extracellular enzyme activity, and other microbial mechanisms (Fig. 4 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure5_AquaMEND_Redox: Contains on model simulation outputs to evaluate shifts among key redox processes, such as aerobic respiration, sulfate reduction, and methanogenesis (Fig.5 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure6_AquaMEND_sorption: Contains on model simulation outputs for investigating the effects of salinity on dissolved organic matter (DOM) sorption and desorption processes (Fig. 6 from Zheng et al. 2025). - Figure7_AquaMEND_process_couple: Contains on model simulation outputs for exploring coupled biotic-abiotic processes and their interactions (Fig. 7 from Zheng et al. 2025). - data: Includes datasets used to develop salinity response functions and evaluate salinity buffering capacity. Datasets for MEND model calibration. - database: Contains the `.dat` file required by PHREEQC for model execution. - README.md: A Markdown plain text file describing the computational tools and directories. Files are a mixture of plain text CSV (comma-separated value) and plain text *.dat files written by the model; no special software is required to read them.

EARTH SCIENCE > AGRICULTURE > SOILS > SOIL SALINIT↗

About the Complex Natural and Engineered Systems Pillar

Los Alamos National Laboratory is a world leader in applying multi-disciplinary science to complex systems within the Complex Natural and Engineered Systems (CNES) challenge areas. Our search for solutions requires science and technology innovation, as well as an integrated experiment, theory, and modeling and simulation approach. Our research and development spans from improving engineered systems such as nuclear weapons and the power grid, to understanding the interface of human and engineered systems from the subsurface to space, to studying how complex natural systems such as disease and climate impact humanity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advanced Life Systems for Extreme Environments: An Arctic Application

The problems of obtaining adequate pure drinking water and disposing of liquid and solid waste in the U.S. Arctic, a region where virtually all water is frozen solid for much of the year, has led to unsanitary solutions (U.S. Arctic Research Commission). These solutions are also damaging to the environment. Sanitation and a safe water supply are particularly problems in rural villages. About one-fourth of Alaska's 86.000 Native residents live in these communities. They are without running water and use plastic buckets for toilets. The outbreak of diseases is believed to be partially attributable to exposure to human waste. Villages with the most frequent outbreaks of disease are those in which running water is difficult to obtain (Office of Technology Assessment, 1994). Waste is emptied into open lagoons, rivers, or onto the sea coast. It does not degrade rapidly and in addition to affecting human health, can be harmful to the fragile ecology of the Arctic and the indigenous wildlife and fish populations. Advanced Life Systems for Extreme Environments (ALSEE) provides a solution to sanitation and safe water problems. The system uses an advanced integrated technology developed for Antarctic and space applications. ALSEE uses the systems approach to address more than waste and water problems. By incorporating hydroponic horticulture and aquaculture into the waste treatment system, ALSEE addresses the quality and quantity of fresh foods available to Arctic residents. A temperate climate is required for year-round plant growth. ALSEE facilities can be designed to include a climate controlled area within the structure. This type of environment is a change from the long periods of darkness and cold found in the Arctic and can help alleviate stress so often associated with these extremes. While the overall concept of ALSEE projects is advanced, system facilities can be operated by village residents with appropriate training. ALSEE provides continuing training and education as a part of the project. Not only is this desirable but necessary. There is ample evidence in "gravoyard" throughout rural Alaska of technologies which failed not because they were not applic4tble, but because they were not integrated and could not be operated or repaired by village residents. Waste streams in villages will vary depending on the human diet and the non-food waste stream. ALSEE units can be adapted to different village situations once the content of the waste stream is known. Units located in population hubs can serve as research, education. and demonstration centers. Appropriate modifications can be determined at these centers to transfer technology to more remote locations where waste stream conditions may differ.

Lewis, Carol E.↗

Regional Deformation Studies with GRACE and GPS

GRACE data indicate large seasonal variations in gravity that have been shown to be to be related to climate-driven fluxes of surface water. Seasonal redistribution of surface mass deforms the Earth, and our previous study using GRACE data demonstrate that annual radial deformations of +/-13 mm in the region of Amazon River Basin were observed by both GRACE and ten GPS sites in the region. For the GRACE determinations, we estimate in a least-squares solution for each Stokes coefficient parameters that represent the amplitudes of the annual variation. We then filter these parameters based on a statistical test that uses the scatter of the postfit residuals. We demonstrate by comparison to the GPS amplitudes that this method is more accurate, for this region, than Gaussian smoothing. Our model for the temporal behavior of the gravity coefficients includes a rate term, and although the time series are noisy, the glacial isostatic adjustment signal over Hudson s Bay can be observed. .

Davis, J. L.↗

An Earth System Digital Twin for Flood Prediction and Analysis

An Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is a dynamic, interactive, digital replica of the state and temporal evolution of Earth systems. It integrates multiple models along with observation data, and connecting them with analysis, AI, and visualization tools. Together, these enable users to explore the current state of the Earth system, predict future conditions, and run hypothetical scenarios to understand how the system would evolve under various assumptions. The NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST)’s Integrated Digital Earth Analysis System (IDEAS) project is to establish an extensible architectural solution to develop digital twins of our physical environment for Earth Science. IDEAS delivers a formal system architecture with mechanisms for the outputs of one model to feed into others; for driving models with observation data; and for harmonizing observation data and model outputs for analysis. To validate and demonstrate the IDEAS architecture, this project collaborates with the Space Climate Observatory (SCO)’s FloodDAM project and the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES) to focus on floods detection, prediction and their impacts.

Kettig, Peter↗

Online detection of airborne nanoparticle composition with mass spectrometry: Recent advances, challenges, and opportunities

Airborne nanoparticles are receiving growing attention due to their impacts on human health, air quality, and climate. Additionally, there are increasing applications of aerosol-based nanotechnology. Real-time measurement of airborne nanoparticle composition is challenging due to their small masses and the difficulties in effectively separating them from larger particles. Custom-built instruments based on mass spectrometry have been developed for nanoparticle composition, including thermal desorption-based, laser-based, and solution-based techniques. They have significantly promoted the understanding of airborne nanoparticles in the last two decades. However, they are affected by molecular fragmentation, lack of mass-resolving power, incomplete species detection, and difficulties in directly comparing to gas-phase measurements. Recent developments in atmospheric mass spectrometry provide possible solutions. Here, this review presents the potential application of these new advances to real-time measurements of the molecular nanoparticle composition and discusses the associated challenges. Such measurements present opportunities for a more comprehensive view of airborne nanoparticles and their impacts.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Origin of water masses in Floridan Aquifer System revealed by 81 Kr

Groundwater in coastal aquifers serves as an essential resource in densely populated areas throughout the world. However, hydrological connection to the ocean leaves it at risk of salinization via changes in climate and hydrological cycles. Therefore, an accurate hydrological characterization of coastal aquifers is of the utmost importance. Although localized salinization of shallow aquifers has commonly been studied, geochemical constraints on the time scale of regional freshwater and seawater in coastal aquifers are limited especially in carbonate aquifers. Such information is not only crucial for water resource management, but also for understanding solute flux over the land-ocean boundary and for interpreting the geochemical signatures that each water mass carries. Toward this goal, we report tracer-based, subsurface residence times of groundwater in the Floridan Aquifer System in southern Florida, which is one of the most productive aquifers on Earth. The first application of Kr 81-an emerging tracer of old groundwater-to this aquifer has identified freshwater recharge during the last glacial period as anticipated from previous studies using other geochemical tools including radiocarbon, stable isotopes and noble gas concentrations. Moreover, freshwater of Holocene age was also detected at 100 km-distance from the recharge area, suggesting the possibility of an active flow system in the upgradient region. A contribution of fossil seawater that predates the last glacial maximum was locally identified, suggesting slow seawater circulation and limited but significant solute flux from the ocean into the aquifer for dolomitization. This also implies that the deep saline coastal groundwater can potentially serve as a paleo-seawater archive.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analysis of bipolar membranes for electrochemical CO 2 capture from air and oceanwater

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) must be removed from the atmosphere to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. However, the most scalable methods for removing CO 2 from the air require heat from fossil-fuel combustion to produce pure CO 2 and continuously regenerate the sorbent. Bipolar-membrane electrodialysis (BPM-ED) is a promising technology that uses renewable electricity to dissociate water into acid and base to regenerate bicarbonate-based CO 2 capture solutions, such as those used in chemical loops of direct-air-capture (DAC) processes, and in direct-ocean capture (DOC) to promote atmospheric CO 2 drawdown via decarbonization of the shallow ocean. In this study, we develop an experimentally validated 1D model for the electrochemical regeneration of CO 2 from bicarbonate-based carbon capture solutions and seawater using BPM-ED. For DAC, our experimental and computational results demonstrate that pH swings induced by BPM water dissociation drive the formation of CO 2 at the cation-exchange layer|catholyte interface with energy-intensities of less than 150 kJ mol -1 . However, high rates of bubble formation increase energy intensity at current densities >100 mA cm -2 . Correspondingly, accelerating water dissociation catalysis and enacting bubble removal could enable CO 2 recovery at energy intensities <100 kJ mol -1 and current densities >100 mA cm -2 . For DOC, mass transport limitations associated with low carbon concentrations in oceanwater suggest that DOC is best suited for clean production of acid and base usable in downstream processes. Further, these results provide design principles for industrial-scale CO 2 recovery using BPM-ED.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Three Gorges Dam Affects Regional Precipitation

Issues regarding building large-scale dams as a solution to power generation and flood control problems have been widely discussed by both natural and social scientists from various disciplines, as well as the policy-makers and public. Since the Chinese government officially approved the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) projects, this largest hydroelectric project in the world has drawn a lot of debates ranging from its social and economic to climatic impacts. The TGD has been partially in use since June 2003. The impact of the TGD is examined through analysis of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall rate and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature and high-resolution simulation using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). The independent satellite data sets and numerical simulation clearly indicate that the land use change associated with the TGD construction has increased the precipitation in the region between Daba and Qinling mountains and reduced the precipitation in the vicinity of the TGD after the TGD water level abruptly rose from 66 to 135 m in June 2003. This study suggests that the climatic effect of the TGD is on the regional scale (approx.100 km) rather than on the local scale (approx.10 km) as projected in previous studies.

Wu, Liguang↗

Investigation of ventilation-coupled high energy density sensible thermal energy storage

Low-cost energy storage will play an important role in supporting the decarbonization of the energy sector. Here, a novel approach to thermal energy storage for buildings is proposed, in which a tank of antifreeze liquid can be used to heat outdoor air in mechanical ventilation systems. If heated to a high enough temperature, the fluid can potentially undergo temperature swings of nearly 100°C during discharge in cold climates. Because the energy density of sensible storage systems scales proportionally to the system temperature change, this concept has the potential to offer higher energy densities than other liquid-based sensible storage devices used in building applications. A one-dimensional numerical model of the storage system was developed and experimentally validated using 30 wt% (wt%) potassium acetate as an aqueous antifreeze solution. Using a commercial hot water tank, energy densities of 47.0 kW-hour per cubic meter (kWh/m 3 ) were demonstrated in a laboratory setting. Material energy densities of approximately 74.7 (kWh/m 3 ) were measured. Design improvements may boost this energy storage density even further. Because of the system's relative simplicity, ventilation-coupled sensible storage has the potential to be an easily deployable, low-cost energy storage solution for building systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Techno-economic analysis of carbon dioxide capture from low concentration sources using membranes

Rising carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels in the atmosphere lead to global warming, causing climate change. As such, carbon capture has become necessary to slow the increase and reduce CO 2 levels in the atmosphere. Point source emissions have a wide range of CO 2 concentrations, but emissions below 3% CO 2 have mostly been ignored because Carbon capture from these sources has been viewed as costly and economically unsustainable. Membrane technologies are considered the most viable solution by virtue of more energy-efficient operation. Our group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed poly[bis((2-methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP)-based carbon dioxide selective membranes with CO 2 /N 2 selectivity greater than 40 and CO 2 permeability greater than 450 Barrer. To understand the economics of carbon capture, a spreadsheet-based techno-economic analysis (TEA) model was developed to consider multiple parameters, including selectivity and permeability of the membranes, performance conditions such as the number of stages, module material, electricity price, membrane price, and capital financing. The cost of carbon capture in US $\$$/metric ton was calculated at various purities and compared with other membrane processes, cryogenic capture, solvent-based capture, and pressure swing adsorption-based capture. It was determined that a MEEP-based three-stage process had a capture cost of US $\$$ 50.1/metric ton for 99.8% purity CO 2 from a 1% CO 2 feed source in nitrogen (N 2 ). In conclusion, the capture cost using the best performing Pebax-based membrane was 464% higher, cryogenic capture was 60%–140% higher, pressure swing adsorption was 55%–165% higher, and chemical absorption was -10%–110% higher than MEEP-based membrane capture, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multifunctional Systems for Planetary Exploration

We summarize the findings and recommendations of the Adaptive Multifunctional Systems for Micro-climate Control Study held at the Caltech Keck Institute for Space Studies. The objective of the Study was to adapt the most recent advances in multifunctional reconfigurable and adaptive systems to enable a microenvironment control to enable space exploration in extreme environments of the Solar System. The technical goal was to identify the most efficient materials, architectures, structures, system autonomy and energy management solutions needed to optimally project or generate a micro - environment around space assets. An important aspect of the Study was the consideration of distributed cellular systems as an architecture for multifunctional systems.

Quadrelli, Marco B.↗

The pursuit of net-positive sustainability for industrial decarbonization with hybrid energy systems

We report signatories of the Paris Agreement are set to miss their climate targets. The net-zero pledges announced to date across many countries and private industries are insufficient to achieve carbon neutrality, which requires implementation of far-reaching and significantly scaled-up climate-positive actions. All technology options that pertain to deep decarbonization and carbon removal must be part of the mitigation portfolio. Transformative action plans must be established in which every individual/organization around the globe is an actor of changes in relation to net-zero goals. Such plans must involve governmental policy support but also encourage voluntary efforts to boost innovations, investments, initiatives, and behavioral changes. Recognition of these efforts is made quantifiable with the concepts of carbon handprint and net positivity. This paper presents a carbon handprint perspective on characterizing the environmental benefits of hybrid energy systems (HESs)—a widely applicable solution to cleaner production leveraging the capabilities of a portfolio of low-carbon energy sources—that provide heat and electricity to industrial processes. First, the carbon handprint and net positivity concepts and their calculation approach are introduced. The state of the art of HES-enabled industrial cogeneration is then surveyed, and the greenhouse gas emission intensities of different energy sources that power HESs are compared. Next, drawing on a case study about a US chemical facility's voluntary initiative to explore replacing its fossil fuel–based cogeneration infrastructure with a clean energy–generated HES, several technically viable scenarios are evaluated—especially those with small modular nuclear reactors—to illustrate how the positive-thinking handprint approach helps encourage and inform the search for widespread influence pathways in pursuit of net-positive sustainability. Finally, current knowledge gaps in the case study are identified, and opportunities to scale up the proposed handprint-based analysis are outlined with consideration of an expanded role of HESs in fulfilling climate objectives.It is envisioned that like-minded decision makers in the industry sector and beyond will adopt this perspective and act synergistically to enhance their environmental stewardship through voluntary actions and make greater contributions to the planet's climate future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Connected Loads – Grid Connected Appliances: Deployment IoT Solution for Fault Detection and Diagnostics

As one of the most energy-intensive end-uses in the commercial buildings sector, supermarkets consume around 50 kWh/ft 2 ( or 537.6 kWh/m 2 ) of electricity annually, or more than 2 million kWh of electricity per year for a typical store. The biggest consumer of energy in a supermarket is its refrigeration system, which accounts for 40–60% of its total electricity usage and is equivalent to about 2–3% of the total energy consumed by commercial buildings in United States, or around 0.5 quadrillion Btu (or 0.53 quadrillion KJ). Also, the supermarket refrigeration system is one of the biggest consumers of refrigerants. Current supermarket refrigeration systems rely on high global warming potential hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants. Reducing refrigerant usage or using environment friendly alternatives can result in significant climate benefits. Transcritical CO2 refrigeration systems have attracted more attention in recent years because of their zero-carbon emission advantages compared with traditional refrigerants. These systems are widely used in commercial buildings such as supermarkets. The refrigeration system can also be adapted to handle flexible building loads and be integrated into grid response transactive control to balance the supply and demand of the electric grid. Even minor improvements in the efficiency and operational reliability of supermarket refrigeration systems can create significant value in terms of saving energy, improving food quality, protecting the environment, reducing carbon footprint, and enhancing electric grid resilience. For decarbonization, the new administration has set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50– 52% by 2030 and targeting a carbon-neutral economy by 2050. For electrification, the goal is to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035. Such decarbonization and electrification in the building sector require that energy consumption in buildings be reduced significantly. Therefore, the building sector must continuously adopt new technologies to achieve its energy and carbon emission goals. One of the most fundamental technologies is the Internet of Things (IoT). IoT has proven to be an effective solution for the building domain, including building information/energy modeling, smart buildings, etc. Although much progress has been made in the development of IoT-based building energy systems, there is still a lack of reliable, scalable, and affordable IoT-based automated fault and degradation diagnostics (AFDDs) solutions. Such solutions would enable deployment of advanced algorithms into real systems to archive the projected energy benefits. This study reviews existing IoT solutions developed for building energy– related application and developed a simple but effective AFDD IoT deployment solution, including developing a suitable IoT architecture and conducting easy and scalable deployment by leveraging a common cloud-based IoT service.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗