Introduction to special issue on US-China EcoPartnership: Pathways toward decarbonizing economies to mitigate climate change
Abstract not provided.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Lithium-Ion Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles: Progress and challenges
Electric Vehicle (EV) sales and adoption have seen a significant growth in recent years, thanks to advancements and cost reduction in lithium-ion battery technology, attractive performance of EVs, governments' incentives, and the push to reduce greenhouse gases and pollutants. In this article, we will explore the progress in lithium-ion batteries and their future potential in terms of energy density, life, safety, and extreme fast charge. Here we will also discuss material sourcing, supply chain, and end-of-life-cycle management as they have become important considerations in the ecosystem of batteries for the sustained growth and adoption of EVs. With significant government and private sector investments in research and development, processing, and manufacturing and advances in anodes (lithium and silicon), cathodes (high nickel), designs, supply chain development, and the circularity of lithium-ion batteries, lithium-based batteries are on track to make EVs mainstream, addressing climate concerns of fossil-fueled vehicles.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Preparing the Power Sector to Navigate Climate and Water Risks
As the climate changes, so will water availability and other ambient conditions, threatening the reliability of today's power system and tomorrow's clean energy grid. That's why researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) - along with those at Sandia National Laboratories, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the City University of New York, the Electric Power Research Institute, and the National Energy Technology Laboratory - are studying both regional and national climate and hydrologic changes to provide a comprehensive assessment of climate and water impacts and risks to the U.S. power grid.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗
Research in geosciences policy
Various topics related to cases of difficult adaptation to global change are discussed. Topics include patterns in the ratification of global environmental treaties, the effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia, and global change and biodiversity loss.
Byerly, Radford, Jr.↗
University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry
This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching. This review identifies both the strengths and weaknesses of each of these case studies. It is the first to go beyond examining the impact of specific inquiry instructional approaches to offer a synthesis of cases. We find that inquiry teaching can succeed by concretising scientific processes, providing access to global data and evidence, imparting critical and higher order thinking about AGCC science policy and contextualising learning with places and scientific facts. We recommend educational researchers and scientists collaborate to create and refine curricula that utilise geospatial technologies, climate models and communication technologies to bring students into contact with scientists, climate data and authentic AGCC research processes. Many available science education technologies and curricula also require further research to maximise trade-offs between implementation and training costs and their educational value.
university level↗
Bioenergy for climate change mitigation: Scale and sustainability
Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of biomass for bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We review the literature on bioenergy, including the modelling of bioenergy in integrated assessment models (IAMs) and bottom-up modelling and non-modelling studies on the implications of bioenergy use. We summarise the limitations of existing modelling studies and what is known about the potential co-benefits and adverse side-effects of bioenergy systems. We find that the implications of bioenergy supply on mitigation and other sustainability criteria are context dependent and influenced by feedstock, management regime, climatic region, scale of deployment and the counterfactual land use and energy system. However, due to limitations of the existing models, and uncertainty over the future context with respect to the many variables that influence availability of biomass and land resources, it is not possible to precisely quantify the sustainability implications for different scales of bioenergy implementation. Given these uncertainties, the dependence on large-scale deployment of bioenergy in mitigation scenarios carries risks. The deployment of bioenergy technologies and the evolution of biomass supply chains at a scale that achieves significant mitigation and carbon sequestration requires integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms. As a result, bioenergy, and the use of land to produce biomass, is an essential part of many climate mitigation strategies but there are limits to its use due to trade-offs with sustainability.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Data Analysis of Energy Code Compliance in Commercial Buildings (Rev. 1)
What percent of newly constructed commercial buildings comply with the energy code? How much energy and cost could be saved if the compliance increased? Which code requirements have both low compliance rates and high savings potential? These are the questions U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is trying to answer through its Commercial Energy Code Field Study. Previous commercial studies have been very limited and did not result in a widely accepted and tested methodology. DOE’s goal is to create a standardized methodology that can produce actionable results at a reasonable study cost, that can be used by state and local governments and utilities and provides valuable information to policy makers. The field study team implemented the pilot methodology, compiling a data set of 230 office and retail buildings in two climate zones. The approach is based on identifying lost savings on a total energy cost basis rather than simply counting the quantity of measures that do not meet code. This report is focused on the analysis of the collected data. The primary goal was to analyze the data collected during the field study and determine the actual energy cost impact of each measure in a non-compliance situation. The energy impact results allowed for ranking the measures to identify which have the highest potential for lost savings. These results combined with the time required to verify each measure will allow future compliance verification to focus on measures that had a large impact on energy use over the life of the building and those that have the greatest savings recovery potential per verification hour.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study
The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems
Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO2 sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Towards an Energy Future with Ubiquitous Electric Vehicles: Barriers and Opportunities
The electrification of personal transportation holds great potential for lowering greenhouse gas emissions and reducing climate change. The promise of electric vehicles (EVs) to serve these goals has resulted in a broad range of supporting policies aimed at encouraging widespread EV adoption at both the state and federal levels in the United States and around the world. While the EV revolution and prospects of a world with ubiquitous EVs are impacting various industries and many aspects of daily life, strategic interactions between the power grid and EVs are crucial for a successful energy transition. However, managing the interplay between EVs and the power grid remains a challenge. Motivated by that tension, this paper surveys a variety of solutions, policies, and incentives that are focused on effectively managing EV charging behaviors. The paper’s objective is to explore these tools to ensure that EV owners have ultimate control over their personal vehicles while simultaneously allowing the power grid to mitigate adverse network impacts. Furthermore, this paper examines the role of charging infrastructure technology and its strategic placement in facilitating the seamless integration of EVs into the grid. Additionally, the paper highlights financial mechanisms associated with EV integration and discusses the consequences of these mechanisms.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Arctic Community Engagement: Enhancing Energy Affordability, Resilience, Security
The changing Arctic geopolitical and natural environment presents significant new challenges and opportunities for innovation, economic development, and sustainable energy, as well as enhancing resilience and security in Alaska communities and the greater Arctic region. NREL's Arctic strategy focuses on addressing the impacts of climate change, developing a clean energy and weatherization workforce in the arctic, advancing energy innovation, developing climate appropriate and affordable housing, and ensuring energy security in an era of growing geopolitical threats.
Alaska↗
Igiugig's Journey Towards Sustainability
This case study summarizes work completed over the last year helping the community of Igiugig develop a comprehensive energy plan.
Alaska↗
Challenges and Opportunities for Basic Efficiency Measures in Low-Income Homes: A Southeast Alaska Case Study
Juneau, Alaska is the state's capital city and has a renewable energy goal to reach 80% renewable energy for the space heating and transportation sectors by 2045. In practical terms, this indicates a need to electrify both sectors, to take advantage of the inexpensive hydropower available from the local electric utility, Alaska Energy Light & Power. In an effort to complement and enable electrification, researchers examined the feasibility to deploy storm windows via a case study of installing storm windows in two local low-income homes. Newer models of storm windows provide an extra layer of insulation over existing windows, while preserving operability and views. They can also improve comfort and reduce noise. Researchers worked with the regional housing authority and a local builder to install the storm windows and replace inoperable windows in the two houses in 2021, in addition to conducting pre- and post-installation air leakage tests, energy monitoring, and occupant interviews. The team encountered several challenges, including a lack of egress windows, energy data from a wide variety of heating systems, extremely leaky homes, and installation issues such as windows that were not square. These results point to several barriers to widespread deployment of storm windows in the area, but also open the door to opportunities to design deployment programs that improve safety as well as efficiency.
cold climate↗
ClimGen: Learning the Forcing-Response Relationship in Climate System
Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is emerging as a potential geoengineering strategy to address the anthropogenic impact on climate, but its effective implementation requires an iterative and large ensemble of highly accurate and efficient climate projections. Traditional climate projections rely on executing computationally demanding and time-consuming numerical climate models. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) aim to enhance these approaches by emulating traditional methods. In this work, we propose a novel framework for directly learning the relationship between solar radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding surface temperature response. To evaluate the feasibility of this direct ML-based projection, we developed a dataset using an intermediate complexity model, incorporating a comprehensive suite of different forcing patterns and evaluation metrics to rigorously assess the ML model’s performance. We introduce a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (cDDPM) for this task, which demonstrates encouraging skill in representing climate statistics under previously unseen forcing patterns. This approach provides a promising pathway for direct climate projections by accurately learning the forcing-response relationship, with a wide range of applications in impact mitigation, emissions policy design, and SRM strategies.
Chen, Tse-Chun [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)] (ORCID:↗
Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.
stratospheric ozone depletion↗
Data from: No‐till establishment improves the climate benefit of bioenergy crops on marginal grasslands
Expanding biofuel production is expected to accelerate the conversion of unmanaged marginal lands to meet biomass feedstock needs. Greenhouse gas production during conversion jeopardizes ensuing climate benefits, but most research to date has focused only on conversion to annual crops and only following tillage. Here we report the global warming impact of converting USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands to three types of bioenergy crops using no-till (NT) versus conventional tillage (CT). In three CRP fields planted to continuous corn, switchgrass, or restored prairie we established replicated NT and CT plots. For the two years following an initial soybean year in all fields, we found that, on average, NT conversion reduced nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by 50% and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 20% compared to CT conversion. Differences were higher in year 1 than in year 2 in the continuous corn field, and in the two perennial systems the differences disappeared after year 1. In all fields net CO2 emissions (as measured by eddy covariance) were positive for the first two years following CT establishment, but following NT establishment net CO2 emissions were close to zero or negative, indicating net C sequestration. Overall, NT improved the global warming impact of biofuel crop establishment following CRP conversion by over 20-fold compared to CT (-6.01 Mg CO2e ha-1 yr-1 for NT vs. -0.25 Mg CO2e ha-1 yr-1 for CT, on average). We also found that IPCC estimates of N2O emissions (as measured by static chambers) greatly underestimated actual emissions for converted fields regardless of tillage. Policies should encourage adoption of NT for converting marginal grasslands to perennial bioenergy crops in order to reduce carbon debt and maximize climate benefits.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Climate change challenges, plant science solutions
Abstract Climate change is a defining challenge of the 21st century, and this decade is a critical time for action to mitigate the worst effects on human populations and ecosystems. Plant science can play an important role in developing crops with enhanced resilience to harsh conditions (e.g. heat, drought, salt stress, flooding, disease outbreaks) and engineering efficient carbon-capturing and carbon-sequestering plants. Here, we present examples of research being conducted in these areas and discuss challenges and open questions as a call to action for the plant science community.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector
Sharply reducing carbon emissions is imperative to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Yet even in the power sector—often viewed as the lynchpin to economy-wide decarbonization, and where low-carbon solutions are increasingly plentiful and cost-effective—the pace and scale of the required transformation can be daunting. A review of historical trends, however, shows the progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions. Fifteen years ago, many business-as-usual projections anticipated that annual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from power supply in the United States would reach 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020. In fact, direct power-sector CO 2 emissions in 2020 were 1,450 MMT—roughly 50% below the earlier projections. By this metric, in only 15 years the country’s power sector has gone halfway to zero emissions. Other metrics also evolved differently than projected: total consumer electricity costs (i.e., bills) were 18% lower; costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively; and the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher. Economic, technical, and policy factors contributed to this success, including sectoral changes, energy efficiency, wind and solar, continued operations of the nuclear fleet, and coal-to-gas fuel switching. This historical record demonstrates the ability of technological and policy changes to set the power sector on a dramatically different emissions trajectory. Past success, however, does not trivialize the challenges that remain for further decarbonization in the power sector and beyond. Nor does it offer a specific roadmap for how best to achieve additional power-sector emissions reductions. Numerous challenges confront a zero-emissions pathway, and future strategies will likely differ from those of the past. Many recent studies have assessed how to make further progress in decarbonizing the power sector on the pathway to decarbonizing the economy as a whole. We summarize the core results of those studies, but the primary goal of this report is to highlight the progress that has already been made in reducing power-sector emissions. As the country maps out a plan for further decarbonization, experience from the past 15 years offers two central lessons. First, policy and technology advancement are imperative to achieving significant emissions reductions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited, and so it will be crucial to adapt as we gain policy experience and as technologies advance in unexpected ways.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗