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At least 523 records · Page 29

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relative rates for plasma homo- and copolymerizations of olefins in a homologous series of fluorinated ethylenes

It is well known that the rate of plasma polymerization, or deposition rate, of a given monomer depends on various plasma process parameters, e.g., monomer flow rate, pressure, power, frequency (DC, rf or microwave), location of the substrate in the reactor, reactor geometry or configuration, and temperature. In contrast, little work has been done to relate deposition rates to monomer structures for a homologous series of monomers where the rates are obtained under identical plasma process parameters. For the particular series of fluorinated ethylenes (C2HxF4-x; x = 0-4), deposition rates were reported for ethylene (ET), vinyl fluoride, vinylidene fluoride and tetrafluoroethylene (TFE), but for plasma polymerizations carried out under different discharge conditions, e.g., pressure, current density, and electrode temperature. Apparently, relative deposition rates were reported for only two members of that series (ET, x = 4, and TFE, x = 0) for which the plasma polymerizations were conducted under identical conditions. We now present relative deposition rates for both homopolymerizations and copolymerizations of the entire series of fluorinated ethylenes (x = 0-4). Our interest in such rates stems from prior work on the plasma copolymerization of ET and TFE in which it was found that the deposition rates for the plasma copolymers, when plotted versus mol % TFE in the ET/TFE feed stock, followed a concave-downward curve situated above the straight line joining the deposition rates for the plasma homopolymers. This type of plot (observed also for an argon-ET/TFE plasma copolymerization) indicated a positive interaction between ET and TFE such that each monomer apparently "sensitized" the plasma copolymerization of the other. Since the shape of that plot is not altered if mol % TFE is replaced by F/C, the fluorine-to-carbon ratio, this paper aims (1) to show how the relative deposition rates for plasma copolymers drawn from all pairs of monomers in the C2HxF4-x series, as well as the deposition rates for the individual plasma homopolymers, vary with F/C ratios of the monomers or monomer blends, and (2) to see if those rates give rise to a common plot.

NASA Center ARC↗

No ν s is Good News

The baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) analysis from the first year of data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), when combined with data from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), has placed an upper-limit on the sum of neutrino masses, ∑m ν < 70 meV (95%). In addition to excluding the minimum sum associated with the inverted hierarchy, the posterior is peaked at ∑m ν = 0 and is close to excluding even the minumum sum, 58 meV at 2σ. In this paper, we explore the implications of this data for cosmology and particle physics. The sum of neutrino mass is determined in cosmology from the suppression of clustering in the late universe. Allowing the clustering to be enhanced, we extended the DESI analysis to ∑m ν < 0 and find ∑m ν =160 ± 90 meV (68%), and that the suppression of power from the minimum sum of neutrino masses is excluded at 99% confidence. We show this preference for negative masses makes it challenging to explain the result by a shift of cosmic parameters, such as the optical depth or matter density. We then show how a result of ∑m ν = 0 could arise from new physics in the neutrino sector, including decay, cooling, and/or time-dependent masses. These models are consistent with current observations but imply new physics that is accessible in a wide range of experiments. In addition, we discuss how an apparent signal with ∑m ν < 0 can arise from new long range forces in the dark sector or from a primordial trispectrum that resembles the signal of CMB lensing.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

X-ray structure of the Cygnus loop

An X-ray surface brightness map of the Cygnus Loop in the energy range 0.15-0.85 keV is presented. The X-ray distribution is compared with the optical and radio pictures of the Loop. The location of the center of the supernova shell as derived from the X-ray data is in excellent agreement with the apparent optical and radio centers. We obtain a mean diameter for the X-ray shell of 2.75 (+ or - 0.2) deg. The X-ray spectral data yield a characteristic thermal temperature averaged over the Loop of 2.9 million (+ or - 1.5 million) K. We have calculated anew X-ray parameters for adiabatic blast waves using X-ray production spectra which include line radiation. These parameters are compared with the results of the present experiment. An age of 18,000 years, initial blast energy equal to 3 times 10 to the 50-th power ergs, and ambient interstellar density of 0.25 per cu cm are found.

Rappaport, S.↗

The light curve of a transient X-ray source

The Ariel-5 satellite has monitored the X-ray light curve of A1524-62 almost continuously from 40 days prior to maximum light until its disappearance below the effective experimental sensitivity. The source exhibited maximum light on Dec. 4, 1974, at a level of 0.9 the apparent magnitude of the Crab Nebula in the energy band 3-6 keV. Although similar to previously reported transient sources with a decay time constant of about 2 months, the source exhibited an extended, variable preflare on-state of about 1 month at a level of greater than 0.1 maximum light. The four bright (greater than 0.2 of the Crab Nebula) transient sources observed during the first half-year of Ariel-5 operation are indicative of a galactic disk distribution, a luminosity at maximum in excess of 10 to the 37-th power ergs/sec, a frequency of occurrence which may be as high as 100/yr, and a median decay time which is less than 1 month.

Kaluzienski, L. J.↗

TF34 Convertible Engine System Technology Program

The ability of the helicopter to function efficiently at zero flight speed is counterbalanced by a limitation to rather low forward flight speeds. An ability to fly efficiently at high speed would provide very significant improvements in rotorcraft productivity and economics. The implementation of such improvements would require the development of a suitable integrated power plant for both the vertical and horizontal flight modes. The engine should be a shaft output engine in the vertical flight mode. In the horizontal mode, the propulsor can be fan or propeller. A description is presented of a program concerned with the demonstration of a convertible turbofan/turboshaft engine. The program is nominally directed toward the demonstration of a propulsion system for an X-wing aircraft. However, the principles being investigated are applicable to any convertible turbofan/turboshaft engine application. At the current early stage of the program, no barrier problems have become apparent, and interesting possibilities for high speed rotorcraft flight are envisaged.

Abdalla, K. L.↗

Reduction of Sample Rotation in Electrostatic Levitation

In many containerless processing systems, control of sample rotation is an important issue. Sample rotation is even more important for microgravity containerless processing systems, where the centrifugal acceleration can approach 1 g for even a small rotation rate. Prior work on rotation control by Rhim focused on driving the sample rotation at a controlled rate for droplet dynamics experiments and measurement of electrical conductivity. His technique allows controlled, fast rotation, but for many microgravity experiments the goal is zero rotation. To minimize sample rotation, two approaches are apparent: first, to identify and balance or eliminate the driving forces for undesired sample rotation, or second, implement a feedback-based rotation control loop in parallel with the position control loop. In this work, we have taken the first approach. To minimize sample rotation, the simplest approach is to identify and balance or eliminate the driving forces for undesired sample rotation. Our experiments show that the dominant driving force for rotation of machined Zr spheres in the MSFC ESL is photon pressure from the heating laser. Experimental results showing the correlation between heating power and torque are compared to theoretical predictions, and a strategy for minimizing the torque due to photon pressure is presented.

Hyers, R. W↗

Evaluating the Origins of Aerobic Oxidation Catalysis with TAM-3, a MOF with Accessible Co(II) Sites and Large Pores

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are attractive platforms that merge concepts of homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysis. Catalyst design and optimization are enabled by an array of synthetic methods that offer independent control over the local chemical structure of lattice-embedded metal ions (i.e., ligand identity and geometry) and the long-range materials properties (i.e., porosity). Establishing the origin of catalytic activity in MOF-promoted reactions remains a significant challenge: The relative rates of catalyst turnover and substrate diffusion dictate the extent to which interstitial sites are accessible and operational in catalysis. To minimize the contributions of surface sites in catalysis, materials with large pore dimensions are often sought, however, the impact of pore expansion on the origins of catalytic activity is similarly challenging to establish. Here, we describe TAM-3, a Co(II) based MOF with accessible metal sites supported by a facially coordinating tris-tetrazole ligand set. TAM-3 features large channel-like pores (17 × 23 Å) and promotes aerobic C−H oxidation and olefin epoxidation. Using a set of simple kinetics experiments, based on the analysis of kinetic isotope effects and olefin oxidation diastereoselectivities, we demonstrate that despite the large pores, interstitial metal ions do not significantly contribute to the observed substrate oxidation. This study highlights the importance of conducting kinetic experiments to assess the origin of apparent catalytic activity with MOFs and the challenge of harnessing reactive oxidants with microporous catalyst materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Boundary layer measurements of the OH radical in the vicinity of an isolated power plant plume - SO2 and NO2 chemical conversion times

Direct measurements of the OH radical in the vicinity of an isolated power plant plume are reported. These measurements were used to estimate the conversion time of SO2 to H2SO4-sulfate aerosol via the initiating step OH + SO2 + M yields HSO3. Using the near-high-noon measured value of OH (9.5 million per cu cm), resulted in a 1/e conversion time of 1.4 days. The latter lifetime would correspond to a conversion rate of about 2%/hr. When the lifetime calculation was modified to take into consideration the OH diurnal cycle, the 1/e conversion time for SO2 was found to be 4.4 days, giving an apparent overall rate of conversion of about 0.7%/hr. Similar calculations carried out for the conversion of NO2 to NHO3 resulted in 1/e lifetimes for NO2 of 2-3 h for midday time periods.

Davis, D. D.↗

The Geology of the Pluto System

NASA's New Horizons mission acquired a large set of images and other data making possible thorough geological analysis of landscapes in the Pluto System. Pluto and Charon exhibit strikingly different surface appearances, despite their similar densities and presumed bulk compositions. Systematic investigation, modelling and mapping revealed that much of Pluto's surface is attributed to surface-atmosphere interactions and the mobilization of volatile ices by insolation. Many mapped valley systems appear to be the consequence of glaciation involving nitrogen ice. Other geological activity requires or required long periods of internal heating, such as Pluto's extensive tectonic fabric. The convection and advection of volatile ices in Sputnik Planitia are thought to be powered by present-day radiogenic heat loss. The prominent mountains at the western margin of Sputnik Planitia, and the strange, multi-km-high mound features to the south, probably composed of H2O, are young geologically as inferred by light cratering and superposition relationships. These multi-km-high mound features might be cryo-volcanoes. Their origin, and what drove their formation so late in Solar System history, is under investigation. East of Sputnik Planitia are large fields of aligned ranks of sharp-crested ridges found only at high altitude that are apparently composed of massive deposits of CH4 ice, referred to as Bladed Terrain. New Horizons found evidence that Bladed Terrain may cover much of Pluto's low latitudes and may have originally formed there as a consequence of Pluto's very high obliquity. Currently Bladed Terrain is undergoing net erosion. This observation, along with evidence for formally more extensive nitrogen glaciation implies that Pluto undergoes significant climate evolution. The dynamic remolding of landscapes by volatile transport seen on Pluto is not unambiguously evident in the mapping of Charon. Charon does, however, display a large resurfaced plain and globally engirdling extensional tectonic network attesting to its early endogenic vigor.

Moore, J. M.↗

General Kinetic Model for pH Dependence of Proton-Coupled Electron Transfer: Application to an Electrochemical Water Oxidation System

The pH dependence of proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reactions, which are critical to many chemical and biological processes, is a powerful probe for elucidating their fundamental mechanisms. Herein, a general, multichannel kinetic model is introduced to describe the pH dependence of both homogeneous and electrochemical PCET reactions. According to this model, a weak pH dependence can arise from the competition among multiple sequential and concerted PCET channels involving different forms of the redox species, such as protonated and deprotonated forms, as well as different proton donors and acceptors. The contribution of each channel is influenced by the relative populations of the reactant species, which often depend strongly on pH, leading to complex pH dependence of PCET apparent rate constants. This model is used to explain the origins of the experimentally observed weak pH dependence of the electrochemical PCET apparent rate constant for a ruthenium-based water oxidation catalyst attached to a tin-doped In2O3 (ITO) surface. The weak pH dependence is found to arise from the intrinsic differences in the rate constants of participating channels and the dependence of their relative contributions on pH. This model predicts that the apparent maximum rate constant will become pH-independent at higher pH, which is confirmed by experimental measurements. Our analysis also suggests that the dominant channels are electron transfer at lower pH and sequential PCET via electron transfer followed by fast proton transfer at higher pH. Furthermore, this work highlights the importance of considering multiple competing channels simultaneously for PCET processes.

Catalysts↗

Assessments of Mechanical and Life Limiting Properties of Two Candidate Silicon Nitrides for Stirling Convertor Heater Head Applications

NASA Glenn Research Center is developing advanced technology for Stirling convertors with a target of significantly improving the specific power and efficiency of the convertor and overall generator for Mars rovers and deep space missions. One specific approach to the target has been recognized as the use of appropriate high-temperature materials. As a series of ceramic material approaches in Advanced Stirling Convertor Development Program in fiscal year 2005, two commercial, structural silicon nitrides AS800 (Honeywell, Torrence, California) and SN282 (Kyocera, Vancouver, Washington) were selected and their mechanical and life limiting properties were characterized at 1050 C in air. AS800 exhibited both strength and Weibull modulus greater than SN282. A life limiting phenomenon was apparent in AS800 with a low slow crack growth parameter n = 15; whereas, a much increased resistance to slow crack growth was found in SN282 with n greater than 100. Difference in elastic modulus and thermal conductivity was negligible up to 1200 C between the two silicon nitrides. The same was true for the coefficient of thermal expansion up to 1400 C.

Choi, Sung R.↗

Diagnostics of vector magnetic fields

It is shown that the vector magnetic fields derived from observations with a filter magnetograph will be severely distorted if the spatially unresolved magnetic structure is not properly accounted for. Thus the apparent vector field will appear much more horizontal than it really is, but this distortion is strongly dependent on the area factor and the temperature line weakenings. As the available fluxtube models are not sufficiently well determined, it is not possible to correct the filter magnetograph observations for these effects in a reliable way, although a crude correction is of course much better than no correction at all. The solution to this diagnostic problem is to observe simultaneously in suitable combinations of spectral lines, and/or use Stokes line profiles recorded with very high spectral resolution. The diagnostic power of using a Fourier transform spectrometer for polarimetry is shown and some results from I and V spectra are illustrated. The line asymmetries caused by mass motions inside the fluxtubes adds an extra complication to the diagnostic problem, in particular as there are indications that the motions are nonstationary in nature. The temperature structure appears to be a function of fluxtube diameter, as a clear difference between plage and network fluxtubes was revealed. The divergence of the magnetic field with height plays an essential role in the explanation of the Stokes V asymmetries (in combination with the mass motions). A self consistent treatment of the subarcsec field geometry may be required to allow an accurate derivation of the spatially averaged vector magnetic field from spectrally resolved data.

Stenflo, J. O.↗

Isotopic mass effects of tritium-fueled high-performance TFTR supershots

An increase in total stored energy correlated with the addition of tritium fuel was observed in supershots during the TFTR DT campaign. This supershot regime had strikingly high, centrally peaked ion and electron temperatures, and the largest neutron emission rates observed in TFTR. This paper presents a study of the causes of this increase in stored energy in supershots. Twenty-six supershots have been recently reanalyzed with the TRANSP plasma analysis code. Early TRANSP simulations did not accurately match the measured magnitude and time evolutions of the neutron emission rates. This mismatch is attributed to neglecting apparent increases of trace amounts of heavy impurities during neutral beam injection. The new TRANSP runs were tuned to accommodate this and match the measured global neutron emission rates. These new runs also had improved fidelity in predicting the time histories and radial dependencies of measured DT neutron emission rates. That in turn adds confidence in the simulated thermal deuterium and tritium density profiles that are needed for calculating the average hydrogenic atomic mass profiles. Six subsets of these supershots had well matched toroidal field B tor , plasma current I p , flux geometry, and total injected neutral beam power. The mix of D and T beam ions was varied for different discharges. The magnitude of the increase of the thermal ion energy W i with added tritium was relatively small, and the total W tot increase is dominated by the increase in fast beam ions with T. Analyses at times before the occurrences of deleterious MHD instabilities yielded scaling of W tot with the volume-average isotopic mass consistent with previous publications. The relative fraction of fast energy ions is expected to be small in practical tokamak reactors. Thus the increase in stored energy W tot observed in TFTR supershots does not appear likely to be significantly helpful for producing useful fusion energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The light curve of a transient X-ray source

The Ariel-V satellite monitored the X-ray light curve of A1524-62 almost continuously from 40 days prior to maximum light until its disappearance below the effective experimental sensitivity. The source exhibited maximum light on approximately 4 December 1974, at a level of 0.9 the apparent magnitude of the Crab Nebula in the energy band 3-6 keV. Although similar to previously reported transient sources with a decay time constant of approximately 2 months, the source exhibited an extended, variable pre-flare on-state of about 1 month at a level of greater than approximately 0.1 maximum light. The four bright (greater than 0.2 of the Crab Nebula) transient sources observed during the first half-year of Ariel-V operation are indicative of a galactic disk distribution, and a luminosity at maximum in excess of 10 to the 37th power ergs/sec.

Kaluzienski, L. J.↗

ROSAT HRI and ASCA Observations of the Spiral Galaxy NGC 6946 and its Northeast Complex of Luminous Supernova Remnants

Analysis of 80 ks ASCA (Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics) and 60 ks ROSAT HRI (High Resolution Image) observations of the face-on spiral galaxy NGC 6946 are presented. The ASCA image is the first observation of this galaxy above approximately 2 keV. Diffuse emission may be present in the inner approximately 4' extending to energies above approximately 2-3 keV. In the HRI data, 14 pointlike sources are detected, the brightest two being a source very close to the nucleus and a source to the northeast that corresponds to a luminous complex of interacting supernova remnants (SNRs). We detect a point source that lies approximately 30" west of the SNR complex but with a luminosity -1115 of the SNR complex. None of the point sources show evidence of strong variability; weak variability would escape our detection. The ASCA spectrum of the SNR complex shows evidence for an emission line at approximately 0.9 keV that could be either Ne IX at approximately 0.915 keV or a blend of ion stages of Fe L-shell emission if the continuum is fitted with a power law. However, a two-component, Raymond-Smith thermal spectrum with no lines gives an equally valid continuum fit and may be more physically plausible given the observed spectrum below 3 keV. Adopting this latter model, we derive a density for the SNR complex of 10-35 cm(exp -3), consistent with estimates inferred from optical emission-line ratios. The complex's extraordinary X-ray luminosity may be related more to the high density of the surrounding medium than to a small but intense interaction region where two of the complex's SNRs are apparently colliding.

Schlegel, E.↗

Leaf Wax Hydrogen Isotopes Reflect Storm Track Position Over Western North America

Proxy records of past climates have yielded powerful insights into regional hydroclimate dynamics. Novel insights may be gained by reconstructing spatiotemporal changes in precipitation isotopologues in past climate states that cannot be gleaned from individual site‐level studies. In this paper, we ask whether latitudinal gradients in the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation, as inferred from sedimentary leaf wax biomarkers, reflect aspects of large‐scale climate conditions in western North America (WNA). Modern coretop samples from offshore WNA show that leaf wax hydrogen isotopes broadly track the hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall between 20 and 40N, but with an offset corresponding to a relatively constant “apparent fractionation” value. Poleward of 40N, the leaf wax signal may be complicated by fluvial transport of leaf waxes from the continental interior. Leaf wax‐inferred precipitation hydrogen isotopes show a shift to more negative values between 30 and 40N. We use modern observational data to show that this latitudinal range marks a major transition between the subtropical arid zone and the location of the midlatitude storm tracks over the northeast Pacific. Nudged water isotope‐enabled models capture the location of the arid to mesic climate transition with fidelity. This modern data set suggests that reconstructions of the latitudinal gradient of precipitation hydrogen isotopes can constrain the sensitivity of the storm tracks to shifts in climatic boundary conditions in past climate states. This approach can yield novel insights into past, present, and future hydroclimate variability in this arid region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of plasma catalytic decomposition of methane: role of atomic O and reaction mechanism

In this work, we investigated atmospheric pressure plasma jet (APPJ)-assisted methane oxidation over a Ni-SiO 2 /Al 2 O 3 catalyst. We evaluated possible reaction mechanisms by analyzing the correlation of gas phase, surface and plasma-produced species. Plasma feed gas compositions, plasma powers, and catalyst temperatures were varied to expand the experimental parameters. Real-time Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy was applied to quantify gas phase species from the reactions. The reactive incident fluxes generated by plasma were measured by molecular beam mass spectroscopy using an identical APPJ operating at the same conditions. A strong correlation of the quantified fluxes of plasma-produced atomic oxygen with that of CH 4 consumption, and CO and CO 2 formation implies that O atoms play an essential role in CH 4 oxidation for the investigated conditions. With the integration of APPJ, the apparent activation energy was lowered and a synergistic effect of 30% was observed. We also performed in-situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier-transform spectroscopy to analyze the catalyst surface. The surface analysis showed that surface CO abundance mirrored the surface coverage of CH n at 25 °C. This suggests that CH n adsorbed on the catalyst surface as an intermediate species that was subsequently transformed into surface CO. We observed very little surface CH n absorbance at 500 °C, while a ten-fold increase of surface CO and stronger CO 2 absorption were seen. This indicates that for a nickel catalyst at 500 °C, the dissociation of CH 4 to CHn may be the rate-determining step in the plasma-assisted CH 4 oxidation for our conditions. We also found the CO vibrational frequency changes from 2143 cm –1 for gas phase CO to 2196 cm –1 for CO on a 25 °C catalyst surface, whereas the frequency of CO on a 500 °C catalyst was 2188 cm –1 . Here, the change in CO vibrational frequency may be related to the oxidation of the catalyst.

methane oxidation↗