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At least 523 records · Page 29

Investigating the Influence of River Geomorphology on Human Presence Using Night Light Data: A Case Study in the Indus Basin

Human settlements have historically thrived near rivers due to enhanced navigation and trade, and the availability of water supply and resources. The use of night light data, representing economic activities, provides a novel approach to studying the interactions between human activity and rivers over time. Here, we use the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) stable night light data from 2000 to 2013 as a proxy for human presence and activities to quantify the statistical relationships between night light presence and intensity in the Indus Basin, Asia. We test how these data are affected by proximity to trunk channels and by channel type (single/multi-thread) in the study area. We find that night light presence is enhanced by 26% within a 0 to 5 km proximity range of the Indus River and its tributaries, relative to the basin as a whole. We interpret this to represent increased human presence and activity within this zone. However, the mean intensity is lower near the river and higher away from the river, signifying denser settlements, such as towns and cities, which are preferentially located away from the Indus and its tributaries. Moreover, the enhancement of lit pixels signifying human presence and activities is increased by 18% near single-thread sections of the Indus River, compared to segments of the Indus displaying multi-thread morphologies. We suggest that this is due to the enhanced stability of single-threaded channels, relative to mobile multi-threaded channel reaches. This study demonstrates how night lights are an important tool in studying the relationship between human presence and river dynamics in large catchments such as the Indus, and we suggest that these data will have an important role in assessing differential flood spatial and social vulnerability at a regional scale.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

NASA/WVU Software Research Laboratory, 1995

In our second year, the NASA/WVU Software Research Lab has made significant strides toward analysis and solution of major software problems related to V&V activities. We have established working relationships with many ongoing efforts within NASA and continue to provide valuable input into policy and decision-making processes. Through our publications, technical reports, lecture series, newsletters, and resources on the World-Wide-Web, we provide information to many NASA and external parties daily. This report is a summary and overview of some of our activities for the past year. This report is divided into 6 chapters: Introduction, People, Support Activities, Process, Metrics, and Testing. The Introduction chapter (this chapter) gives an overview of our project beginnings and targets. The People chapter focuses on new people who have joined the Lab this year. The Support chapter briefly lists activities like our WWW pages, Technical Report Series, Technical Lecture Series, and Research Quarterly newsletter. Finally, the remaining four chapters discuss the major research areas that we have made significant progress towards producing meaningful task reports. These chapters can be regarded as portions of drafts of our task reports.

Sabolish, George J.↗

Identifying the Catalytic Active Site for Propylene Metathesis by Supported ReO x Catalysts

A series of supported ReO x catalysts were investigated that allowed identifying the unique surface anchoring sites on oxide supports responsible for activating the surface ReO 4 sites for propylene metathesis (the catalytic active site). The catalysts were synthesized by incipient-wetness impregnation of aqueous HReO 4 onto the oxide supports (Al 2 O 3 , ZrO 2 , TiO 2 , SiO 2 and CeO 2 ), characterized under dehydrated and propylene metathesis reaction conditions with in situ spectroscopy (Raman, DRIFTS, UV-Vis and NAP-XPS), and chemically probed (CH 3 CH=CH 2 -TPSR, CH 2 =CH 2 /CH 3 CH=CHCH 3 titration and steady-state self-metathesis of propylene to ethylene and 2-butene). The initially calcined supported rhenia species anchor as isolated surface Re 7+ O 4 sites on the oxide supports by reacting with the surface hydroxyls (terminal S-OH, bridged S-OH-S and tricoordinated S 3 -OH) of the oxide supports. The specific oxide support was found to control the number of activated sites (Al 2 O 3 >> ZrO 2 > CeO 2 > TiO 2 > SiO 2 ) and propylene metathesis activity (Al 2 O 3 >> ZrO 2 >> TiO 2 ~ CeO 2 ~ SiO 2 ) revealing that the oxide support action is a potent ligand for the surface ReO x sites. The activation and specific activity of the surface ReO x sites depend on several factors (nature of surface hydroxyls (S 3 -OH > S-OH-S > S-OH), coordination of the oxide support surface cation (ZrO 7 , AlO 6 , CeO 4 ) and electronegativity of the oxide support cation (SiO 2 > Al 2 O 3 > TiO 2 > ZrO 2 > CeO 2 ). No relationships exist between olefin metathesis activity and acid strength of surface Lewis and Brønsted sites. Here, prior studies primarily focused on supported ReO x /Al 2 O 3 and the lack of examination of non-Al 2 O 3 supported rhenia catalysts precluded comparison between efficient and inefficient olefin metathesis catalysts, which prevented identifying the catalytic active site for olefin metathesis by supported ReO x catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nuclear Forensics

Nuclear forensics is a key part of the nuclear security strategy for the United States and the international community. The NACS Division is central to the leadership role that LLNL has had in nuclear forensics over the past 25 years. Our current nuclear forensic program includes conducting R&D on provenance and attribution signatures, collaborating with international partners, training the next generation of nuclear forensic experts, developing test materials for verification and validation exercises, and providing expert advice to national and international policy makers. Key to our success in these areas has been the strong and continuing involvement in nuclear forensic casework obtained through law enforcement and intelligence channels as well as our outstanding analytical capabilities. NACS must continue to conduct forward-thinking R&D in nuclear forensics that supports operational programs and addresses intelligence gaps. To maintain leadership in nuclear forensics, we must attract, develop, and retain the best talent. The NNSA has a central leadership role in developing educational initiatives for nuclear forensics. In concert with the Glenn T. Seaborg Institute, the NACS Division will continue to participate in all nuclear forensic educational initiatives (undergraduate, graduate, postdoctoral) and incorporate LLNL’s D&I vision into its student and postdoc recruitment efforts. We will continue to build formal relationships with key academic partners and institutions with active and emerging nuclear forensic research interests. We will also strengthen relationships with NNSA DNN and SSAA funded university consortia (e.g. NSSC, ACE, CNEC, CVT, ETI, MTV), helping them conduct research of interest and relevance to nuclear forensics, while at the same time evaluating and recruiting promising talent from these programs.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Solar position confounds the relationship between ecosystem function and vegetation indices derived from solar and photosynthetically active radiation fluxes

Vegetation indices derived from solar and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) sensors (i.e. radiation derived) have been under-utilized in inferring ecosystem function, despite measurement capability at hundreds of sites. This under-utilization may be attributed to reported mismatches among the seasonality of radiation- and satellite-derived vegetation indices and canopy photosynthesis; herein referred to as measurement biases. In this work, biases in radiation derived reflectance and vegetation indices were assessed using a decadal record of satellite and ground based spectroradiometer data, ecosystem phenology and CO 2 fluxes, and radiation derived vegetation indices (i.e. the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI], the two band Enhanced Vegetation Index [EVI2]) from a high latitude tundra site (i.e. Imnaviat). At Imnaviat, we found poor correspondence between the three types of reflectance and vegetation indices, especially during the latter part of the growing season. Radiation derived vegetation indices resulted in incorrect estimates of phenological timing of up to a month and poor relationships with canopy photosynthesis (i.e. Gross Ecosystem Exchange (GEE)). These mismatches were attributed to solar position (i.e. solar zenith and azimuth angle) and a method, based on the diel visible and near-infrared albedo variation, was developed to improve the performance of the vegetation indices. The ability of radiation derived vegetation indices to infer GEE and phenological dates drastically improved once radiation derived vegetation indices were corrected for solar position associated biases at Imnaviat. Moreover, radiation derived vegetation indices became better aligned with MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite estimates after solar position associated biases were corrected at Imnaviat and at 25 Fluxnet sites (~90 site years) across North America. Corrections developed here provide a way forward in understanding daily ecosystem function or filling large gaps in eddy covariance data at a significant number of Fluxnet sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Theoretical performance of multi-layer grid patterns for solar cells

Multilayer grid patterns consist of fine closely spaced grid lines overlaid by coarser patterns of wider and thicker grid lines to collect the current from the finer grids with low series voltage drop and low active-layer sheet losses. An analytical approach leads to closed form solutions with simple relationships between the power losses in the active layer, in the grid and shadowing losses for optimum design proportions. The results show that multilayer grids, with line thickness equal to line width, greatly reduce losses in cell efficiency under concentration conditions of high current collection. (AlGa)As-pn GaAs cells of areas 1-25 sq cm and sheet resistance 40 ohms/square are considered. Also the performance of a n/p GaAs cell of dimensions 10 x 10 cm is studied. With optimized grid patterns high efficiencies are predicted for large area cells.

Flat, A.↗

Chronology and petrogenesis of young achondrites, Shergotty, Zagami, and ALHA77005 - Late magmatism on a geologically active planet

Three achondrites were examined for chronology, petrogenesis, and relationships among the shergotites. Isotopic and trace elements analyses were carried out through neutron activation and mass spectrometry on Shergotty, Zagami, and ALHA77005 samples. Attention was given the Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, and the Ar-39/Ar-40 ages in the samples. Evidence was detected for a shock metamorphism and a younger age of the meteorites than with most other achondrites. Depletions of the rare-earth elements were observed in Shergotty and Zagami, and to a more pronounced degree in ALHA77005. The Rb-Sr internal isochrons for all three meteorites were about 180 Myr, while the Ar-39/Ar-40 plateau ages of Shergotty and Zagami maskelynite were determined at 250-260 Myr. No precise identification of the crystallization ages was found. It is suggested that the achondrites originated in a parent body which experienced at least two epochs of sustained melting.

Shih, C.-Y.↗

Final Technical Report for project entitled Highly Active, Durable, and Ultra-Low PGM NSTF Thin Film ORR Catalysts and Support

In this project, the objective was to develop new oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysts for proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) which could exceed all of the Department of Energy (DOE) 2020 targets listed in DE-FOA-0001224, Subtopic 1b, Table I. The expected outcome was development of one or more electrocatalysts which are substantially improved over the current state-of-the-art in terms of overall activity, durability, and cost, and are suitable for automotive traction and stationary fuel cell applications. This report summarizes this project’s progress towards meeting the stated objectives and includes a summary of key findings and conclusions. The development activities towards new highly active and durable thin film electrocatalysts has led to the discovery of several electrocatalysts which approached or exceeded several DOE 2020 targets for activity, durability, and performance in proton exchange membrane fuel cell (membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs). In this project, electrocatalyst development focused on systematic physical and electrochemical characterization of electrocatalyst activity, durability, and performance in MEAs as a function of electrocatalyst fabrication, compositional and structural variables. The project approach was to develop relationships between the catalyst functional responses (activity, durability and performance) with catalyst physical properties and catalyst fabrication methods. Additionally, the thin film catalysts were integrated onto the unique and durable 3M Nanostructured Thin Film (NSTF) support, consisting of arrays of self-assembled organic crystalline whiskers. The catalysts were evaluated against the project targets via extensive electrochemical characterization in MEA format at 3M, advanced structural and compositional microscopy at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and atomic structure analysis via XAFS at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The extensive electrochemical and physical characterization resulted in development of several trends which correlate the catalysts’ electrochemical properties to their physical properties, including composition, structure, and method of fabrication. The development was guided by density functional theory (DFT) modeling at Purdue University and kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) modeling at Johns Hopkins University. The catalyst simulations provided key insights into the observed experimental activity and durability trends, and additionally were utilized to assess new electrocatalyst concepts prior to or coincident with physical catalyst development. This development has led to several electrocatalyst candidates with activity and durability which approach or exceed DOE targets. One class of catalysts, based on nm-scale thin layers of Pt on Ir, met or exceeded 6 of the 6 DOE targets the project addressed.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Spatial heterogeneity in vegetation canopies and remote sensing of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation - A modeling study

A 3D radiative transfer model is used to investigate the relationship between spectral indices and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in horizontally heterogeneous vegetation canopies. Canopy reflection at optical wavelengths and PAR absorption are simulated. Data obtained indicate that the leaf area index of a canopy is less of an instructive parameter than the ground cover and clump leaf area index for these canopies. It is found that the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index and fraction of absorbed PAR is almost linear and independent of spatial heterogeneity.

Asrar, G.↗

A Comparison between Lightning Activity and Passive Microwave Measurements

A recent examination of data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) suggests that storm with the highest frequency of lightning also possess the most pronounced microwave scattering signatures at 37 and 85 GHz. This study demonstrates a clear dependence between lightning and the passive microwave measurements, and accentuates how direct the relationship really is between cloud ice and lightning activity. In addition, the relationship between the quantity of ice content and the frequency of lightning (not just the presence of lightning) , is consistent throughout the seasons in a variety of regimes. Scatter plots will be presented which show the storm-averaged brightness temperatures as a function of the lightning density of the storms (L/Area) . In the 85 GHz and 37 GHz scatter plots, the brightness temperature is presented in the form Tb = k1 x log10(L/Area) + k2, where the slope of the regression, k1, is 58 for the 85 GHz relationship and 30.7 for the 37 GHz relationship. The regression for both these fits showed a correlation of 0.76 (r2 = 0.58), which is quite promising considering the simple procedure used to make the comparisons, which have not yet even been corrected for the view angle differences between the instruments, or the polarization corrections in the microwave imager.

Kevin, Driscoll T.↗

On the Relationship between Solar Wind Speed, Earthward-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Sunspot Cycle Using 12-Month Moving Averages

For 1996 .2006 (cycle 23), 12-month moving averages of the aa geomagnetic index strongly correlate (r = 0.92) with 12-month moving averages of solar wind speed, and 12-month moving averages of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (halo and partial halo events) strongly correlate (r = 0.87) with 12-month moving averages of sunspot number. In particular, the minimum (15.8, September/October 1997) and maximum (38.0, August 2003) values of the aa geomagnetic index occur simultaneously with the minimum (376 km/s) and maximum (547 km/s) solar wind speeds, both being strongly correlated with the following recurrent component (due to high-speed streams). The large peak of aa geomagnetic activity in cycle 23, the largest on record, spans the interval late 2002 to mid 2004 and is associated with a decreased number of halo and partial halo CMEs, whereas the smaller secondary peak of early 2005 seems to be associated with a slight rebound in the number of halo and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed aaM during the declining portion of cycle 23, RM for cycle 24 is predicted to be larger than average, being about 168+/-60 (the 90% prediction interval), whereas based on the expected aam for cycle 24 (greater than or equal to 14.6), RM for cycle 24 should measure greater than or equal to 118+/-30, yielding an overlap of about 128+/-20.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Global Lightning Activity

Our knowledge of the global distribution of lightning has improved dramatically since the 1995 launch of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) followed in 1997 by the launch of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Together, these instruments have generated a continuous seven-year record of global lightning activity. These lightning observations have provided a new global perspective on total lightning activity. For the first time, total lightning activity (CG and IC) has been observed over large regions with high detection efficiencies and accurate geographic location. This has produced new insights into lightning distributions, times of occurrence and variability. It has produced a revised global flash rate estimate (46 flashes per second) and has lead to a new realization of the significance of total lightning activity in severe weather. Accurate flash rate estimates are now available for large areas of the earth (+/- 72deg latitude) Ocean-land contrasts as a function of season are clearly revealed, as are orographic effects and seasonal and interannual variability. The data set indicates that air mass thunderstorms, not large storm systems dominate global activity. The ability of LIS and OTD to detect total lightning has lead to improved insight into the correlation between lightning and storm development. The relationship between updraft development and lightning activity is now well established and presents an opportunity for providing a new mechanism for remotely monitoring storm development. In this concept, lightning would serve as a surrogate for updraft velocity. It is anticipated hat this capability could lead to significantly improved severe weather warning times and reduced false warning rates.

Christian, Hugh↗

Global Lightning Activity

Our knowledge of the global distribution of lightning has improved dramatically since the advent of spacebased lightning observations. Of major importance was the 1995 launch of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD), followed in 1997 by the launch of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Together, these instruments have generated a continuous eight-year record of global lightning activity. These lightning observations have provided a new global perspective on total lightning activity. For the first time, total lightning activity (cloud-to-ground and intra-cloud) has been observed over large regions with high detection efficiency and accurate geographic location. This has produced new insights into lightning distributions, times of occurrence and variability. It has produced a revised global flash rate estimate (44 flashes per second) and has lead to a new realization of the significance of total lightning activity in severe weather. Accurate flash rate estimates are now available over large areas of the earth (+/- 72 deg. latitude). Ocean-land contrasts as a function of season are clearly reveled, as are orographic effects and seasonal and interannual variability. The space-based observations indicate that air mass thunderstorms, not large storm system dominate global activity. The ability of LIS and OTD to detect total lightning has lead to improved insight into the correlation between lightning and storm development. The relationship between updraft development and lightning activity is now well established and presents an opportunity for providing a new mechanism for remotely monitoring storm development. In this concept, lightning would serve as a surrogate for updraft velocity. It is anticipated that this capability could lead to significantly improved severe weather warning times and reduced false warning rates. This talk will summarize our space-based lightning measurements, will discuss how lightning observations can be used to monitor severe weather, and present a concept for continuous geostationary-based lightning observations.

Christian, Hugh J.↗

Total Lightning Activity as Observed from Space

Our knowledge of the global distribution of lightning has improved dramatically since the 1995 launch of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD), followed in 1997 by the launch of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Together, these instruments have generated a continuous seven-year record of global lightning activity. These lightning observations have provided a new global perspective on total lightning activity. For the first time, total lightning activity (CG and IC) has been observed over large regions with high detection efficiencies and accurate geographic location. This has produced new insights into lightning distributions, times of occurrence and variability. It has produced a revised global flash rate estimate (44 flashes per second) and has lead to a new realization of the significance of total ligh&g activity in severe weather. Accurate flash rate estimates are now available for areas of the earth (+/- 72 deg. latitude). Ocean-land contrasts as a function of season are clearly reveled, as are orographic effects and seasonal and interannual variability. The data set indicates that air mass thunderstorms, not large storm system dominate global activity. The ability of LIS and OTD to detect total lightning has lead to improved insight into the correlation between lightning and storm development. The relationship between updraft development and lightning activity is now well established and presents an opportunity for providing a new mechanism for remotely monitoring storm development. In this concept, lightning would serve as a surrogate for updraft velocity. It is anticipated that this capability could lead to significantly improved severe weather warning times and reduced false warning rates.

Christian, Hugh J.↗

Total Lightning Activity as Observed from Space

ABSTRACT: Our knowledge of the global distribution of lightning has improved dramatically since the 1995 launch of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD), followed in 1997 by the launch of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Together, these instruments have generated a continuous seven-year record of global lightning activity. These lightning observations have provided a new global perspective on total lightning activity. For the first time, total lightning activity (CG and IC) has been observed over large regions with high detection efficiencies and accurate geographic location. This has produced new insights into lightning distributions, times of occurrence and variability. It has produced a revised global flash rate estimate (44 flashes per second) and has lead to a new realization of the significance of total ligh&g activity in severe weather. Accurate flash rate estimates are now available for areas of the earth (+/- 72 deg. latitude). Ocean-land contrasts as a function of season are clearly reveled, as are orographic effects and seasonal and interannual variability. The data set indicates that air mass thunderstorms, not large storm system dominate global activity. The ability of LIS and OTD to detect total lightning has lead to improved insight into the correlation between lightning and storm development. The relationship between updraft development and lightning activity is now well established and presents an opportunity for providing a new mechanism for remotely monitoring storm development. In this concept, lightning would serve as a surrogate for updraft velocity. It is anticipated that this capability could lead to significantly improved severe weather warning times and reduced false warning rates.

Christian, Hugh J.↗

Breaking the Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi Relation with Dual-Metal Sites

Linear scaling relationships impose inherent limitations on catalyst activity; the Brønsted−Evans−Polanyi (BEP) relation, which correlates activation and reaction energies, is a prominent example. Here we report a dual-metal site catalyst (DMSC) on ceria that breaks the BEP relation for C−C coupling of methyl intermediates an elementary step in methane coupling to form ethane. The DMSC structure on CeO 2 (111) was discovered by density-functional theory (DFT) structural exploration and confirmed to be stable via ab initio thermodynamics and ab initio molecular dynamics. Homonuclear and heteronuclear DMSCs of Ni, Pd, Pt, Fe, Ru, Os, Co, Rh, and Ir (45 pairs in total) were examined for methyl affinity and methyl−methyl coupling activation energy. We found that many heteronuclear DMSCs break the BEP linear scaling due to a mixed low-affinity/high-affinity coadsorption of the two methyl groups, decoupling the step responsible for the activation energy (E a ) at the low-affinity site from the overall reaction energy (ΔE) determined by both sites. This mechanism of breaking the BEP relationship via the DMSCs offers a catalyst design principle for C−C coupling reactions.

Chen, Yiming [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (Uni↗

Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

It is well documented that government agencies do not have the same incentive as the private sector to focus on process effectiveness and continual improvement of those processes. It is also well documented whenever government agencies fail to deliver efficient, effective, consistent, and fair services to the citizens. In spite of the various "reinventing government" and "effectiveness initiatives" of the past decades, and in spite of the efforts on the part of many agencies to improve, government in general still lags behind industry in creating a culture of effective processes and systems. While the tragic events that unfolded recently in Flint, Michigan, teach us that running government "like a business" does not always take the needs of the citizenry into account, there are many lessons and techniques from the private sector that government agencies can use to improve. The incentive to improve, while mandated by various administrations1, needs to come from within the workforce, in order to effectively take root. The best, most effective incentive is to reduce, control or eliminate risk. Government agencies face some of the same risks as the private sector, while some are unique. While ISO 310002 has been around since 2009, risk has taken on increased visibility within the private sector with the advent of the emphasis on risk-based thinking in ISO 9001:20153. The relationship between risk-based thinking and effective processes is simple and direct. Those processes that are well thought out and standardized (i.e. Plan-Do-Check-Act), will have taken into account the applicable policy, statutory, regulatory, safety, quality and technical parameters, which may not occur to someone performing the process with minimal experience or training; and thus protect the employees, the public and the agency from statutory and regulatory violations; delay in providing services; non-delivery of services; harm to public or employee safety and health; cost overruns; breaches in security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes to work planning to cause harm, it is up to agencies to establish upper level systems, which make establishment and compliance with processes possible. Again, Mallory provides us with a Systems Management Standard6, similar to the Process Management Standard, with a scale of 0-5 for systems effectiveness and maturity. Deming determined that "eighty-five percent of the reasons for failure are deficiencies in the systems and process rather than the employee. The role of management is to change the process rather than badgering individual employees to do better." 7 It is not just the working level employees who need effective processes, but the mid-and upper level managers as well. A disciplined management culture sets the tone for the employees, aids both routine and off-nominal decision-making, and incorporates risk -based thinking into the systems and processes as a matter of normal activity. Figure 1, illustrates the relationship between ineffective and effective processes and risk, through the use of the "stoplight" colors that are commonly used to show serious situations (red), situations which may be improving or deteriorating depending on trends (yellow), and situations that are under control and continuously improved (green).

Shepherd, Christena C.↗