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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Application of Commercial Non-Dispersive Infrared Spectroscopy Sensors for Sub-Ambient Carbon Dioxide Detection

Monitoring carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration within a spacecraft or spacesuit is critically important to ensuring the safety of the crew. Carbon dioxide uniquely absorbs light at wavelengths of 3.95 micrometers and 4.26 micrometers. As a result, non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) spectroscopy can be employed as a reliable and inexpensive method for the quantification of CO2 within the atmosphere. A multitude of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) NDIR sensors exist for CO2 quantification. The COTS sensors provide reasonable accuracy so long as the measurements are attained under conditions close to the calibration conditions of the sensor (typically 21.1 C and 1 atm). However, as pressure deviates from atmospheric to the pressures associated with a spacecraft (8.0-10.2 PSIA) or spacesuit (4.1-8.0 PSIA), the error in the measurement grows increasingly large. In addition to pressure and temperature dependencies, the infrared transmissivity through a volume of gas also depends on the composition of the gas. As the composition is not known a priori, accurate sub-ambient detection must rely on iterative sensor compensation techniques. This manuscript describes the development of recursive compensation algorithms for sub-ambient detection of CO2 with COTS NDIR sensors. In addition, the basis of the exponential loss in accuracy is developed theoretically considering thermal, Doppler, and Lorentz broadening effects which arise as a result of the temperature, pressure, and composition of the gas mixture under analysis. As a result, this manuscript provides an approach to employing COTS sensors at sub-ambient conditions and may also lend insight into designing future NDIR sensors for aerospace application.

Swickrath, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Start-On-The-Part Transient Model for In-Situ Automated Tape Placement of Thermoplastic Composites

Fabrication of a complex part by automated tape placement (ATP) can require starting up a new tape-end in the part interior, termed start-on-the-part. Careful thermal management of the starting transient is needed to achieve uniform crystallinity and inter-laminar weld strength - which is the objective of this modeling effort. The transient is modeled by a Fourier-Laplace transform solution of the time-dependent thermal transport equation in two spatial dimensions. The solution is subject to a quasi-steady approximation for the speed and length of the consolidation head. Sample calculations are done for the Langley ATP robot applying PEEK/carbon fiber composite and for two upgrades in robot performance. The head starts out almost at rest which meets an engineering requirement for accurate placement of the new tape-end. The head then rapidly accelerates until it reaches its steady state speed. This rapid acceleration, however, violates the quasi-steady approximation, so uniform weld strength and crystallinity during the starting transient are not actually achieved. The solution does give the elapsed time and distance from start-up to validity of the quasi-steady approximation - which quantifies the length of the non-uniform region. The elapsed time was always less than 0.1 s and the elapsed distance less than 1 cm. This quantification would allow the non-uniform region to be either trimmed away or compensated for in the design of a part. Such compensation would require experiments to measure the degree of non-uniformity, because the solution does not provide this information. The rapid acceleration suggests that the consolidation roller or belt be actively synchronized to avoid abrading the tape.

Costen, Robert c.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhanced Quantification of 3D Woven Composites Via Fourier Analysis and Structure Tensors Applied to CT Scans

NASA's development of advanced 3D woven carbon composites, such as HEEET and 3MDCP, represents a significant leap in materials designed to endure extreme atmospheric entry conditions. However, the internal complexity of these materials introduces a variety of structures and novel defect types. Traditional characterization methods rely on labor-intensive, manual examination of X-ray CT scans, demanding considerable time and expertise. This process, while thorough, is not sustainable for large-scale analysis and defect tracking. Addressing this critical challenge, this presentation introduces an innovative suite of automated tools and analytical techniques, pioneered by the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) Thermal Protection System (TPS) project. These advancements offer a more efficient and accurate approach for quantifying CT data and characterizing the defects of 3D woven composites.

Magnus Haw↗
DOE OSTI2024

ETHOS: An automated framework to generate multi-fidelity constitutive data tables and propagate uncertainties to hydrodynamic simulations

Accurate constitutive data, such as equations of state and plasma transport coefficients, are necessary for reliable hydrodynamic simulations of plasma systems such as fusion targets, planets, and stars. Here, we develop a framework for automatically generating transport-coefficient tables using a parameterized model that incorporates data from both high-fidelity sources (e.g., density functional theory calculations and reference experiments) and lower-fidelity sources (e.g., average-atom and analytic models). The framework incorporates uncertainties from these multi-fidelity sources, generating ensembles of optimally diverse tables that are suitable for uncertainty quantification of hydrodynamic simulations. We illustrate the utility of the framework with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of magnetically launched flyer plates, which are used to measure material properties in pulsed-power experiments. We explore how changes in the uncertainties assigned to the multi-fidelity data sources propagate to changes in simulation outputs and find that our simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties near the melting transition. The presented framework enables computationally efficient uncertainty quantification that readily incorporates new high-fidelity measurements or calculations and identifies plasma regimes where additional data will have high impact.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-based quantification of margins and uncertainties in metal additive manufacturing for process design and qualification

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) has the potential to enable the production of components with novel designs and material properties unachievable otherwise. However, process repeatability is a challenge, making qualification ill-defined and greatly reducing the utility of what could be an important manufacturing technology. In this work, a combination of modeling, uncertainty quantification (UQ), and experimentation are used in an effort to predict and bound the range of possible outcomes of the LPBF process. Quantities of interest predicted are melt pool dimensions, microstructure features, and mechanical distortions. A combination of high fidelity thermal-fluid models, microstructure growth models, and reduced fidelity, rapid thermal and mechanical models are used. Uncertainty propagation techniques are used to predict probability distributions of quantities of interest from estimates of process uncertainties. Repeated experiments are done to quantify observed probability distributions and compared to predicted distributions to determine if predictions are precise and accurate. Novel modeling methods are microstrucutre characterization techniques are also discussed. It is found that high fidelity models do a generally good job bounding experimentally observed melt pool morphologies for both bead-on-plate and powder bed cases. Microstructure models are able to bound a number of experimentally observed microstructure statistics, but with low precision due to challenges with calibrating the microstructure growth model parameters. A developed modified inherent strain distortion model does not accurately predict observed distortions. A lumped laser distortion model shows promise in being both accurately and precisely bounding observed outcomes from the deflection comb build, but requires further evaluation on more builds and geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗
NASA NTRS2012

Application of Commercial Non-Dispersive Infrared Spectroscopy Sensors for Sub-Ambient Carbon Dioxide Detection

Monitoring carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration within a spacecraft or spacesuit is critically important to ensuring the safety of the crew. Carbon dioxide uniquely absorbs light at wavelengths of 3.95 micrometers and 4.26 micrometers. As a result, non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) spectroscopy can be employed as a reliable and inexpensive method for the quantification of CO2 within the atmosphere. A multitude of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) NDIR sensors exist for CO2 quantification. The COTS sensors provide reasonable accuracy as long as the measurements are attained under conditions close to the calibration conditions of the sensor (typically 21.1 C (70.0 F) and 1 atmosphere). However, as pressure deviates from atmospheric to the pressures associated with a spacecraft (8.0{10.2 pounds per square inch absolute (psia)) or spacesuit (4.1{8.0 psia), the error in the measurement grows increasingly large. In addition to pressure and temperature dependencies, the infrared transmissivity through a volume of gas also depends on the composition of the gas. As the composition is not known a priori, accurate sub-ambient detection must rely on iterative sensor compensation techniques. This manuscript describes the development of recursive compensation algorithms for sub-ambient detection of CO2 with COTS NDIR sensors. In addition, the source of the exponential loss in accuracy is developed theoretically. The basis of the loss can be explained through thermal, Doppler, and Lorentz broadening effects that arise as a result of the temperature, pressure, and composition of the gas mixture under analysis. This manuscript provides an approach to employing COTS sensors at sub-ambient conditions and may also lend insight into designing future NDIR sensors for aerospace application.

Swickrath, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation metric will provide a quantified confidence and probability of success for the final SLS dynamics model, which will be critical for a successful launch program, and can be applied in the many other industries where an accurate dynamic model is required.

Brown, Andrew M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topological Machine Learning Methods for Power System Responses to Contingencies: Preprint

While deep learning tools, coupled with the emerging machinery of topological data analysis, are proven to deliver various performance gains in a broad range of applications, from image classification to biosurveillance to blockchain fraud detection, their utility in areas of high societal importance such as power system modeling and, particularly, resilience quantification in the energy sector yet remain untapped. To provide fast acting synthetic regulation and contingency reserve services to the grid while having minimal disruptions on customer quality of service, we propose a new topologybased system that depends on neural network architecture for impact metrics classification and prediction in power systems. This novel topology-based system allows one to evaluate the impact of three power system contingency types, namely, in conjunction with transmission lines, transformers, and transmission lines combined with transformers. We show that the proposed new neural network architecture equipped with local topological measures facilitates both more accurate classification of unserved load as well as the amount of unserved load. In addition, we are able to learn complex relationships between electrical properties and local topological measurements on the simulated response to contingencies for NREL-SIIP power system.

graph theory↗
DOE OSTI2020

Verification and Validation of High Explosive Reactive Burn Models Implemented in LANL's EAP and LAP Code Base

Reactive burn models represent a significant leap in high explosive (HE) modeling capability. The first generation of engineering models of HE detonation are called programmed burn models and they are largely based on the distance between a prescribed detonation point and each zone in a simulation. There have been many advancements to programmed burn models over the years and when the assumptions upon which they are based are met, a properly tuned programmed burn model can be highly accurate but if any of their assumptions is not met, as is the case for corner turning or weakly initiated HE burn, they will give the wrong answer. Reactive burn models represent an entirely new way of modeling HE burn. They use the local conditions of a zone – e.g. temperature, pressure or density – as calculated by a hydrocode to determine if and when the zone is going to detonate and if so, how rapidly. This difference opens up an entirely new set of capabilities for HE modeling. It makes it possible to accurately and predictively model phenomena like the effect of confinement and the formation of dead zones. Reactive burn models have seen sustained development effort at LANL for at least the last decade but several recent developments make it timely to transition reactive burn models from a research topic to a production tool. The main goal of this milestone is to facilitate and accelerate the adoption of reactive burn as a commonly available modeling option, with recommendations on the resolution that will be required and uncertainties associated with their modeling choices. To achieve this, we have performed verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (UQ) assessments of AWSD and SURF/SURFplus in xRage and FLAG on a variety of different problems.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topological Machine Learning Methods for Power System Responses to Contingencies

While deep learning tools, coupled with the emerging machinery of topological data analysis, are proven to deliver various performance gains in a broad range of applications, from image classification to biosurveillance to blockchain fraud detection, their utility in areas of high societal importance such as power system modeling and, particularly, resilience quantification in the energy sector yet remains untapped. To provide fast acting synthetic regulation and contingency reserve services to the grid while having minimal disruptions on customer quality of service, we propose a new topology-based system that depends on a neural network architecture for impact metric classification and prediction in power systems. This novel topology-based system allows one to evaluate the impact of three power system contingency types, in conjunction with transmission lines, transformers, and transmission lines combined with transformers. We show that the proposed new neural network architecture equipped with local topological measures facilitates more accurate classification of unserved load as well as the amount of unserved load. In addition, we are able to learn more about the complex relationships between electrical properties and local topological measurements on their simulated response to contingencies for the NREL-SIIP power system.

contingency analysis↗
DOE OSTI2021

The impact of the third O 2 addition reaction network on ignition delay times of neo-pentane

In this work, we studied the oxidation of neo-pentane by combining experiments, theoretical calculations, and mechanistic developments to elucidate the impact of the 3rd O 2 addition reaction network on ignition delay time predictions. The experiments are based on photoionization mass spectrometry in jet-stirred and time-resolved flow reactors allowing for sensitive detection of the keto-hydroperoxide (KHP) and keto-dihydroperoxide (KDHP) intermediates. With neo-pentane exhibiting a unique symmetric molecular structure, which consequently results only in single KHP and KDHP isomers, theoretical calculations of ionization and fragment appearance energies and of absolute photoionization cross sections enabled the unambiguous identification and quantification of the KHP intermediate. Its temperature and time-resolved profiles together with calculated and experimentally observed KHP-to-KDHP signal ratios were compared to simulation results based on a newly developed mechanism that describes the 3rd O 2 addition reaction network. A satisfactory agreement has been observed between the experimental data points and the simulation results, thus adding confidence to the model's overall performance. Finally, this mechanism was used to predict ignition delay times reported previously in shock tube and rapid compression machine experiments (J. Bugler et al., Combust. Flame 163 (2016) 138–156). While the model accurately reproduces the experimental data, simulations with and without the 3rd O 2 addition reaction network included reveal only a negligible effect on the predicted ignition delay times at 10 and 20 atm. According to model calculations, low temperatures and high pressures promote the importance of the 3rd O2 addition reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking noise extrapolation with the OpenPulse control framework

Distilling precise estimates from noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) data has recently attracted considerable attention Kandala et al., Nature (London) 567, 491 (2019). In order to augment digital qubit metrics, such as gate fidelity, we discuss analog error mitigability, i.e., the ability to accurately distill precise observable estimates, as a hybrid quantum classical computing benchmarking task. Specifically, using Rabi oscillations as a test program, we characterize single qubit error rates on IBM's Poughkeepsie superconducting quantum hardware, incorporate control-mediated noise dependence into a generalized rescaling protocol, and analyze how noise characteristics influence Richardson extrapolation-based error mitigation. Finally, our results identify regions in the space of Hamiltonian control fields and circuit depth which are most amenable to reliable noise extrapolation, as well as shed light on how low-level hardware characterization can be used as a predictive tool for uncertainty quantification in error-mitigated NISQ computations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating uncertainty-based active learning for accelerating the generalization of molecular property prediction

Deep learning models have proven to be a powerful tool for the prediction of molecular properties for applications including drug design and the development of energy storage materials. However, in order to learn accurate and robust structure–property mappings, these models require large amounts of data which can be a challenge to collect given the time and resource-intensive nature of experimental material characterization efforts. Additionally, such models fail to generalize to new types of molecular structures that were not included in the model training data. The acceleration of material development through uncertainty-guided experimental design has the promise to significantly reduce the data requirements and enable faster generalization to new types of materials. To evaluate the potential of such approaches for electrolyte design applications, we perform comprehensive evaluation of existing uncertainty quantification methods on the prediction of two relevant molecular properties - aqueous solubility and redox potential. We develop novel evaluation methods to probe the utility of the uncertainty estimates for both in-domain and out-of-domain data sets. Finally, we leverage selected uncertainty estimation methods for active learning to evaluate their capacity to support experimental design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of gas concentrations in NO/NO 2 /C 3 H 8 /NH 3 mixtures using machine learning

We employ machine learning to decode the composition of unknown gas mixtures from the output of an array of four electrochemical sensors. The sensors use metal oxide electrodes paired with a ceramic electrolyte, yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ), to produce voltage responses to the presence of gases in complex mixtures. The voltages from the sensor array serve as inputs to a machine learning pipeline which first carries out multi-class classification of mixtures into types based on which gases are present at non-zero concentrations, and subsequently predicts gas concentrations given the mixture type. Thus, our model is able to take a single reading from the sensor array in response to gas mixtures involving NO, NO 2 , C 3 H 8 , and NH 3 , and output a highly accurate prediction of which gases are present in the mixture, along with the concentrations of each constituent gas. Of note, our computational framework can be easily expanded to include additional gases and additional mixture types, allowing it to be used in numerous automotive, industrial and environmental monitoring settings.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI Improves the Accuracy, Reliability, and Economic Value of Continental‐Scale Flood Predictions

Accurate flood early warnings are critical to minimize damage and loss of life. Current large‐scale operational forecasting systems, however, have limited accuracy, description of uncertainty, and computational efficiency. While Artificial intelligence (AI) can address these limitations in principle, the accuracy and reliability of AI forecasts have thus far proven insufficient. Here we present a novel hybrid framework that integrates AI‐based machinery termed Errorcastnet (ECN) with the National Water Model (NWM) to showcase the potential of ensemble AI flood forecasts over the contiguous U.S. ECN boosts prediction accuracy four‐ to six‐fold across lead times of 1–10 days, while providing uncertainty quantification. It also outperforms Google's state‐of‐the‐art global AI model. ECN‐based forecasts offer superior economic value (up to four‐fold) for decision‐making as compared to those from NWM alone. ECN performs well in varied ecoregions, physiography, and land management conditions. The framework is computationally efficient, enabling national‐scale ensemble forecasts in minutes.

artificial intelligence↗