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At least 523 records · Page 29

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Microwave Radiometers : an Overview

This paper describes 1) the progress of the work of the IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society (GRSS) Instrumentation and Future Technologies Technical Committee (IFT-TC) Microwave Radiometer Working Group and 2) an overview of the development of interferometric synthetic aperture microwave radiometers as an introduction to a dedicated session.

remote sensing↗

NEXRAD-In-Space: A Geostationary Orbiting Doppler Radar for Hurricane Monitoring and Studies

Under NASA's Earth Science Technology Program, a novel mission concept has been developed for detailed monitoring of hurricanes, cyclones, and severe storms from a geostationary orbit: "NEXRAD in Space" (NIS). By operating in the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), NIS would enable rapid-update sampling (less than or equal to 1 hour cadence) of three dimenional fields of 35 GHz (Ka-band) radar reflectivity factor (Z) and line-of-sight Doppler velocity (VD) profiles, at mesoscale horizontal resolutions (approx. 10 km) over a circular Earth region of approximately 5300 km in diameter (equivalent to much of an oceanic basin, such as the Atlantic). NIS GEO-radar concept was chosen as one of only four potential post-2020 missions for the Weather Focus area in the 2007-2016 NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Science Plan. The results of the first project aiming at developing the NIS concept highlighted the enormous potential of such mission, and the technological challenges presented by it. In essence, it is because of its rapid-cadence capability that NIS science planning is focusing on hurricane monitoring and prediction. Hurricanes, or generically tropical cyclones (TCs), have always been among the most devastating natural phenomena. This has been painfully reiterated in recent years with a number of powerful TCs landfalling in North America and elsewhere. In April 2007, the first NIS Science Workshop was convened at the University of Miami to galvanize the scientific community's interest in NIS's measurement capabilities for improved TC monitoring and prediction. The general consensus of the workshop was that a GEO Doppler radar would provide a major breakthrough in regards to the observation of TCs, and, when combined with cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents brief summaries of the instrument concept, the current technology status, the anticipated impacts on hurricane monitoring and model prediction, and the future science and technology roadmap.

precipitation↗

Development of the Nano-HEB Array for Low-Background Far-IR Applications

We present an overview of the recent progress made in the development of a far-IR array of ultrasensitive hot-electronnanobolometers (nano-HEB) made from thin titanium (Ti) films. We studied electrical noise, signal and noisebandwidth, single-photon detection, optical noise equivalent power (NEP), and a microwave SQUID (MSQUID) basedfrequency domain multiplexing (FDM) scheme. The obtained results demonstrate the very low electrical NEP down to1.5x10-(sup 2)? W/Hz(sup 1)/(sup 2) at 50 mK determined by the dominating phonon noise. The NEP increases with temperature as ~ T(sup 3)reaching ~ 10-(sup 1)? W/Hz(sup 1)/(sup 2) at the device critical temperature TC = 330-360 mK. Optical NEP = 8.6x10-(sup 1)? W/Hz(sup 1)/(sup 2) at 357mK and 1.4x10-(sup 1)? W/Hz(sup 1)/(sup 2) at 100 mK respectively, agree with thermal and electrical data. The optical couplingefficiency provided by a planar antenna was greater than 50%. Single 8-?m photons have been detected for the first timeusing a nano-HEB operating at 50-200 mK thus demonstrating a potential of these detectors for future photon-countingapplications in mid-IR and far-IR. In order to accommodate the relatively high detector speed (~ ?s at 300 mK, ~ 100 ?sat 100 mK), an MSQUID based FDM multiplexed readout with GHz carrier frequencies has been built. Both the readoutnoise ~ 2 pA/Hz(sup 1)/(sup 2) and the bandwidth > 150 kHz are suitable for nano-HEB detectors.

single-photon↗

Finalizing the CCSDS Space-Data Link Layer Security Protocol: Setup and Execution of the Interoperability Testing

The protection of data transmitted over the space-link is an issue of growing importance also for civilian space missions. Through the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS), space agencies have reacted to this need by specifying the Space Data-Link Layer Security (SDLS) protocol which provides confidentiality and integrity services for the CCSDS Telemetry (TM), Telecommand (TC) and Advanced Orbiting Services (AOS) space data-link protocols. This paper describes the approach of the CCSDS SDLS working group to specify and execute the necessary interoperability tests. It first details the individual SDLS implementations that have been produced by ESA, NASA, and CNES and then the overall architecture that allows the interoperability tests between them. The paper reports on the results of the interoperability tests and identifies relevant aspects for the evolution of the test environment.

Fischer, Daniel↗

CubeSat Constellation Cloud Winds(C3Winds) A New Wind Observing System to Study Mesoscale Cloud Dynamics and Processes

The CubeSat Constellation Cloud Winds (C3Winds) is a NASA Earth Venture Instrument (EV-I) concept with the primary objective to better understand mesoscale dynamics and their structures in severe weather systems. With potential catastrophic damage and loss of life, strong extratropical and tropical cyclones (ETCs and TCs) have profound three-dimensional impacts on the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic structures, producing complex cloud precipitation patterns, strong low-level winds, extensive tropopause folds, and intense stratosphere-troposphere exchange. Employing a compact, stereo IR-visible imaging technique from two formation-flying CubeSats, C3Winds seeks to measure and map high-resolution (2 km) cloud motion vectors (CMVs) and cloud geometric height (CGH) accurately by tracking cloud features within 5-15 min. Complementary to lidar wind observations from space, the high-resolution wind fields from C3Winds will allow detailed investigations on strong low-level wind formation in an occluded ETC development, structural variations of TC inner-core rotation, and impacts of tropopause folding events on tropospheric ozone and air quality. Together with scatterometer ocean surface winds, C3Winds will provide a more comprehensive depiction of atmosphere-boundary-layer dynamics and interactive processes. Built upon mature imaging technologies and long history of stereoscopic remote sensing, C3Winds provides an innovative, cost-effective solution to global wind observations with potential of increased diurnal sampling via CubeSat constellation.

mesoscale dynamics↗

NASA JSC EV2 Intern Spring 2016 - Jennie Chung

Exploration Mission 2 (EM-2) is a mission to resume the manned exploration of the Solar System. This mission is the first crewed mission of NASA’s Orion on the Space Launch System. The target for EM-2 is to perform a flyby of a captured asteroid in lunar orbit, which NASA plans to launch in 2023. As an intern working with EV-2 – Avionics Systems Division in Johnson Space Center, we are developing flight instrumentation systems for EM-2 (MISL & RFID). The Modular Integrated Stackable Layer (MISL) is a compact space-related computer system that is modular, scalable and reconfigurable. The RFID (radio frequency identification) sensors are used to take lower frequency (TC) type measurements and be able to stream data real-time to an RF (radio frequency) interrogator upon demand. Our job, in EV-2, is to certify, test, manufacture/assemble and deliver flight EM-2 DFI System (MISL & RFID). Our goal is to propose a development effort to design low-mass wire and wireless data acquisition and sensor solutions for EM-2 DFI (Development Flight Instrumentation). The team is tasked to provide the most effective use of 75 pounds to acquire DFI data and to collect sensor data for 100-200 high priority DFI channels (mass driven).

Chung, Jennie↗

Aerosol Meteorology of the Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 1: Regional-scale Phenomena

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30) to southern Kalimantan (42). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire counts were middling, resultant AERONET 500nm aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from fire activity was high, with maximums of 3.6 and 5.6 in the Sumatra and Kalimantan source regions at the end of the burning season and an average of approximately 1. AOTs could also be high at receptor sites, with a mean and maximum of 0.57 and 1.24 in Singapore and 0.61 and 0.8 in Kuching Sarawak. Ultimately, outside of the extreme 2015 El Nino event, average AERONET AOT values were higher than any other time since sites were established. Thus, while satellite fire data, models, and AERONET all qualitatively agree on the nature of smoke production and transport, the MC's complex environment resulted in clear differences in quantitative interpretation of these datasets.

Reid, Jeffrey S.↗

Aerosol Meteorology of Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 2: Philippine Receptor Observations of Fine-Scale Aerosol Behavior

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operations period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Data included were observations aboard the MY Vasco, dispatched to the Palawan Archipelago and Sulu Sea of the Philippines for September 2012. At these locations, the Vasco observed MC smoke and pollution entering the southwest monsoon (SWM) monsoonal trough. Here we describe the research cruise findings and the finer-scale aerosol meteorology of this convectively active region. This 2012 cruise complemented a 2-week cruise in 2011 and was generally consistent with previous findings in terms of how smoke emission and transport related to monsoonal flows, tropical cyclones (TC), and the covariance between smoke transport events and the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure. Biomass burning plumes were usually mixed with significant amounts of anthropogenic pollution. Also key to aerosol behavior were squall lines and cold pools propagating across the South China Sea (SCS) and scavenging aerosol particles in their path. However, the 2012 cruise showed much higher modulation in aerosol frequency than its 2011 counterpart. Whereas in 2011 large synoptic-scale aerosol events transported high concentrations of smoke into the Philippines over days, in 2012 measured aerosol events exhibited a much shorter-term variation, sometimes only 312h. Strong monsoonal flow reversals were also experienced in 2012. Nucleation events in cleaner and polluted conditions, as well as in urban plumes, were observed. Perhaps most interestingly, several cases of squall lines preceding major aerosol events were observed, as opposed to 2011 observations where these lines largely scavenged aerosol particles from the marine boundary layer. Combined, these observations indicate pockets of high and low particle counts that are not uncommon in the region. These perturbations are difficult to observe by satellite and very difficult to model. Indeed, the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) simulations captured longer period aerosol events quite well but largely failed to capture the timing of high-frequency phenomena. Ultimately, the research findings of these cruises demonstrate the real world challenges of satellite-based missions, significant aerosol life cycle questions such as those the future Aerosol/Clouds/Ecosystems (ACE) will investigate, and the importance of small-scale phenomena such as sea breezes, squall lines, and nucleation events embedded within SWM patterns in dominating aerosol life cycle and potential relationships to clouds.

Reid, Jeffrey S.↗

Development of Trace Contaminant Control Prototypes for the Primary Life Support System (PLSS)

Results are presented on the development of Trace Contaminant Control (TCC) Prototypes for use in Extravehicular Activities (EVAs), and more specifically in the Primary Life Support System (PLSS). The current TC-control technology involves the use of a packed bed of acid-impregnated granular charcoal, which is non-regenerable, and the carbon-based sorbent under development in this project can be regenerated by exposure to vacuum at room temperature. Data on sorption and desorption of ammonia and formaldehyde, which are major TCs of concern, as well as pressure-drop calculations were used to design and test 1/6-scale and full-scale trace contaminant control system (TCCS) prototypes. Carbon sorbents were fabricated in both the granular and foam-supported forms. Sorbent performance was tested for ammonia sorption and vacuum regeneration in 1/6-scale, and pressure-drop characteristics were measured at flow rates relevant to the PLSS application.

Wojtowicz, Marek↗

A New Tropical Cyclone Dynamic Initialization Technique Using High Temporal and Spatial Density Atmospheric Motion Vectors and Airborne Field Campaign Data

Background: Initialization of tropical cyclones in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems is a great challenge: Mass-wind field balance; Secondary circulation and heating; Asymmetries. There can be large adjustments in structure and intensity in the first 24 hours if the initial vortex is not in balance: Spurious gravity waves; Spin-up (model and physics). Existing mesoscale NWP model TC (Tropical Cyclone) initialization strategies: Bogus vortex, cold start from global analyses; 3DVAR or 4DVAR, possibly with synthetic observations; EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter); Dynamic initialization. Dynamic initialization allows vortex to have improved balance and physics spin-up at the initial time (e.g., Hendricks et al. 2013, 2011; Nguyen and Chen 2011; Fiorino and Warner 1981; Hoke and Anthes 1976). Himawari-8 geostationary satellite has capability of continuous imagery (10-minutes) over the full disk: New GOES-R satellites will have same capability. This will allow for unprecedented observations of tropical cyclones. However, current data assimila1on systems are not capable of ingesting such high temporal observations (Atmospheric Mo1on Vectors - AMVs). Hourly AMVs are produced, and thinned to 100-kilometer spacing in the horizontal. An entirely new data assimilation concept is required to utilize these observations.

remote sensing↗

Planetesimals Born Big by Clustering Instability?

Roughly 100km diameter primitive bodies (today's asteroids and TNOs; [1]) are thought to be the end product of so-called "primary accretion". They dominated the initial mass function of planetesimals, and precipitated the onset of a subsequent stage, characterized by runaway gravitational effects, which proceeded onwards to planetary mass objects, some of which accreted massive gas envelopes. Asteroids are the parents of primitive meteorites; meteorite data suggest that asteroids initially formed directly from freelyfloating nebula particles in the mm-size range. Unfortunately, the process by which these primary 100km diameter planetesimals formed remains problematic. We review the most diagnostic primitive parent body observations, highlight critical aspects of the nebula context, and describe the issues facing various primary accretion models. We suggest a path forward that combines current scenarios of "turbulent concentration" (TC) and "streaming instabilities" (SI) into a triggered formation process we call clustering instability (CI). Under expected conditions of nebula turbulence, the success of these processes at forming terrestrial region (mostly silicate) planetesimals requires growth by sticking into aggregates in the several cm size range, at least, which is orders of magnitude more massive than allowed by current growth-by-sticking models using current experimental sticking parameters [2-4]. The situation is not as dire in the ice-rich outer solar system; however, growth outside of the snowline has important effects on growth inside of it [4] and at least one aspect of outer solar system planetesimals (high binary fraction) supports some kind of clustering instability.

Cuzzi, Jeffrey N.↗

First Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation Structure and Storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) Mission Applications Workshop Summary Report

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of SmallSats (TROPICS) mission is a constellation of state-of-the-science observing platforms that will measure temperature and humidity soundings and precipitation with spatial resolution comparable to current operational passive microwave sounders but with unprecedented temporal resolution. TROPICS is a cost-capped ($30 million) Venture-class mission funded by the NASA Earth Science Division (ESD) and led by principal investigator Dr. William Blackwell from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL). The mission is comprised of a constellation of six, three-unit (3U) Cube-Sats (approximately 10 by 10 by 34 centimeters), each hosting a 12-channel passive microwave spectrometer based on the Micro-sized Microwave Atmospheric Satellite 2 (MicroMAS-2) developed at MIT LL. TROPICS will provide imagery at frequencies near 91 and 205 gigahertz, temperature sounding near 118 gigahertz, and moisture sounding near 183 gigahertz. Spatial resolution at nadir will be around 27 kilometers for temperature and 17 kilometers for moisture and precipitation with a swath width of approximately 2,000 kilometers. Both the spatial resolution and swath width are similar to the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) that is being flown as part of the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership and will fly starting in 2017 on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). In addition, TROPICS meets many of the requirements outlined in the 2007 Decadal Survey for the Precision and All-Weather Temperature and Humidity mission, which was originally envisioned as a microwave instrument in geostationary orbit. TROPICS enables temporal resolution similar to geostationary orbit but at a much lower cost, demonstrating a technology that could impact the design of future Earth-observing missions. The satellites for the TROPICS mission are slated for delivery to NASA in 2019 for launches planned no earlier than 2020. The primary mission objective of TROPICS is to relate temperature, humidity, and precipitation structure to the evolution of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity.

applied scienc↗

Planetesimals Born Big by Clustering Instability?

Roughly 100km diameter primitive bodies (today's asteroids and TNOs; [1]) are thought to be the end product of so-called "primary accretion". They dominated the initial mass function of planetesimals, and precipitated the onset of a subsequent stage, characterized by runaway gravitational effects, which proceeded onwards to planetary mass objects, some of which accreted massive gas envelopes. Asteroids are the parents of primitive meteorites; meteorite data suggest that asteroids initially formed directly from freelyfloating nebula particles in the mm-size range. Unfortunately, the process by which these primary 100km diameter planetesimals formed remains problematic. We review the most diagnostic primitive parent body observations, highlight critical aspects of the nebula context, and describe the issues facing various primary accretion models. We suggest a path forward that combines current scenarios of "turbulent concentration" (TC) and "streaming instabilities" (SI) into a triggered formation process we call clustering instability (CI). Under expected conditions of nebula turbulence, the success of these processes at forming terrestrial region (mostly silicate) planetesimals requires growth by sticking into aggregates in the several cm size range, at least, which is orders of magnitude more massive than allowed by current growth-by-sticking models using current experimental sticking parameters [2-4]. The situation is not as dire in the ice-rich outer solar system; however, growth outside of the snowline has important effects on growth inside of it [4] and at least one aspect of outer solar system planetesimals (high binary fraction) supports some kind of clustering instability

Asteroids↗

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗

Last Hop Options for DTN

It is possible to use a Delay Tolerant Network (DTN) to transport data and/or commanding from one end-point to another end-point where DTN is not used. This implies that at least one or the other end-point is sending and receiving as a non-DTN node. It also implies that at least one intermediate node prior to the non-DTN node has a Convergence Layer Adapter (CLA) or application which supports appropriate protocols. This is the basic concept of Rationale, Scenarios, and Requirements for DTN in Space, section 4.2.2.6.3: An application on the last hop relay node may extract TeleCommands(TCs) from an immediate or delayed TC file and radiate them as TCs to their destination (typically orbiter to lander); Rationale: Such an application could be used to support low-level commanding in case the destination spacecraft’s network layer is not functioning properly.

Pitts, Robert Lee↗

Behavior of a Salt Water Solution Near the Critical Point Under Microgravity Conditions

The Supercritical Water Mixture (SCWM) experiment conducted on the International Space Station (ISS) is designed to study a salt-water solution in the vicinity of the critical transition with a test cell filled with Na2SO4 (aq) 0.5-w. This salt is a Type II salt which undergoes a dramatic decrease in solubility past waters critical point. The paper discusses the liquid-vapor-salt distribution in the test cell for subcritical, trans-critical, and supercritical regimes. In 0-g, the vapor-liquid interface manifests itself by the presence of a large single vapor bubble that is flattened between the two windows. In contrast with pure water, the vapor bubble remains centered in the test cell and is stable for temperatures up to Tc - 50 mK. The processes leading to critical transition during heat-up, as marked by the break-up of the vapor bubble, depends on the applied heating rate. For temperature ramps 1 mKmin, the bubble interface begins to breakup with the formation of a large number of smaller bubbles. For larger temperature ramps (10mKmin), temperature gradients arise in the cell pushing the bubble toward a window surface. As the critical threshold is crossed small variations in cell temperature ( 1 mK) cause an observable spatial variation in density. However, this spatial variation is not discernible as the temperature is increased further into the supercritical regime. The salt precipitation in the vicinity of the critical crossing appears to be heterogeneous in nature with precipitates observable on the cell windows. Direct imaging as well as light scattering indicate a hexagonal structure of the precipitated salt crystals in the near critical regime. The salt deposition is not fully reversible as the temperature is reduced due to window corrosion effects which traps some of the precipitated salt. Critical temperatures as high as 1.9 K above the value for pure water (647.25 K) have been measured. Finally, results on the critical transition phenomena in the presence of an imposed temperature gradient, demonstrating the remarkable stability of the central bubble, are also presented.

near-critical↗

Assimilation of GMI and ATMS Observations in the Rainbands of Hurricanes

We propose a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration (BMCI) technique to retrieve the profiles of temperature, water vapor, and cloud liquid/ice water content from microwave cloudy measurements in the presence of tropical cyclones (TC). These retrievals then can either be directly used by meteorologists to analyze the structure of TCs or be assimilated into numerical models to provide accurate initial conditions for the NWP models. The BMCI technique is applied to the data from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) onboard Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). The retrieved profiles are then assimilated into Hurricane WRF using GSI data assimilation system. This talk presents the development of the BMCI retrieval system as well as the preliminary results of assimilating the retrievals into NASA GEOS-5 model.

Moradi, Isaac↗

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗