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At least 523 records · Page 29

Real-time dispatch optimization for concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants present a promising path towards utility-scale renewable energy. The power tower, or central receiver, configuration can achieve higher operating temperatures than other forms of CSP, and, like all forms of CSP, naturally pairs with comparatively inexpensive thermal energy storage, which allows CSP plants to dispatch electricity according to market price incentives and outside the hours of solar resource availability. Currently, CSP plants commonly include a steam Rankine power cycle and several heat exchange components to generate high-pressure steam using stored thermal energy. The efficiency of the steam Rankine cycle depends on the temperature of the plant's operating fluid, and so is a main concern of plant operators. However, the variable nature of the solar resource and the conservatism with which the receiver is operated prevent perfect control over the receiver outlet temperature. Therefore, during periods of solar variability, collection occurs at lower-than-design temperature. To support operator decisions in a real-time setting, we develop a revenue-maximizing non-convex mixed-integer, quadradically-constrained program which determines a dispatch schedule with sub-hourly time fidelity and considers temperature-dependent power cycle efficiency. The exact nonlinear formulation proves intractable for real-time decision support. Here we present exact and inexact techniques to improve problem tractability that include a hybrid nonlinear and linear formulation. Our approach admits solutions within approximately 3% of optimality, on average, within a five-minute time limit, demonstrating its usability for decision support in a real-time setting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Nanosecond time-resolved infrared spectroscopy for the study of electron transfer in photosystem I

Abstract Microsecond time-resolved step-scan FTIR difference spectroscopy was used to study photosystem I (PSI) from Thermosynechococcus vestitus BP-1 ( T. vestitus, formerly known as T. elongatus ) at 77 K. In addition, photoaccumulated (P700 + –P700) FTIR difference spectra were obtained at both 77 and 293 K. The FTIR difference spectra are presented here for the first time. To extend upon these FTIR studies nanosecond time-resolved infrared difference spectroscopy was also used to study PSI from T. vestitus at 296 K. Nanosecond infrared spectroscopy has never been used to study PSI samples at physiological temperatures, and here it is shown that such an approach has great value as it allows a direct probe of electron transfer down both branches in PSI. In PSI at 296 K, the infrared flash-induced absorption changes indicate electron transfer down the B- and A-branches is characterized by time constants of 33 and 364 ns, respectively, in good agreement with visible spectroscopy studies. These time constants are associated with forward electron transfer from A 1 – to F X on the B- and A-branches, respectively. At several infrared wavelengths flash-induced absorption changes at 296 K recover in tens to hundreds of milliseconds. The dominant decay phase is characterized by a lifetime of 128 ms. These millisecond changes are assigned to radical pair recombination reactions, with the changes being associated primarily with P700 + rereduction. This conclusion follows from the observation that the millisecond infrared spectrum is very similar to the photoaccumulated (P700 + –P700) FTIR difference spectrum.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of exponential integrators and traditional time integration schemes for the shallow water equations

We report the time integration scheme is probably one of the most fundamental choices in the development of an ocean model. In this paper, we investigate several time integration schemes when applied to the shallow water equations. This set of equations is accurate enough for the modeling of a shallow ocean and is also relevant to study as it is the one solved for the barotropic (i.e. vertically averaged) component of a three dimensional ocean model. We analyze different time stepping algorithms for the linearized shallow water equations. High order explicit schemes are accurate but the time step is constrained by the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy stability condition. Implicit schemes can be unconditionally stable but, in practice lack accuracy when used with large time steps. In this paper we propose a detailed comparison of such classical schemes with exponential integrators. The accuracy and the computational costs are analyzed in different configurations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Time-discretization of a plasma-neutral MHD model with a semi-implicit leapfrog algorithm

The semi-implicit leapfrog time-discretization is a workhorse algorithm for initial-value MHD codes to bridge between vastly separated time scales. Inclusion of atomic interactions with neutrals breaks the functional structure of the MHD equations that exploited by the leapfrog. In this work, we address how to best integrate atomic physics into the semi-implicit leapfrog. Following the Crank-Nicolson method, one approach is to time-center the atomic interactions in the linear solver and use a Newton method to include the nonlinear contributions. Alternatively, another family of methods are based on operator-splitting the terms associated with the atomic interactions using a Strang-splitting technique. These methods naturally break equations into constituent ODE and PDE parts and preserve the structure exploited by the semi-implicit leapfrog. We study the accuracy and efficiency of these methods through a battery of 0D and 1D cases and show that a second-order-in-time Douglas-Rachford inspired coupling between the ODE and PDE advances is effective in reducing the time-discretization error to be comparable to that of Crank-Nicolson with Newton iteration of the nonlinear terms. Splitting ODE and PDE parts results in independent matrix solves for each field which reduces the computational cost considerably and provides parallelization over species relative to Crank-Nicolson.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Regularizing the linearly extrapolated BDF2 scheme for incompressible flows with time relaxation

This paper presents a highly-efficient finite element scheme for the time relaxation model (TRM). The efficiency is achieved through the second-order BDF2 time-stepping scheme with linear extrapolation (BDF2LE). The accuracy of the scheme is also greatly enhanced through the use of the divergence-free Scott-Vogeulis finite elements, and van Cittert approximate deconvolution. A complete finite element analysis is provided, which includes rigorous proofs for the stability, well-possessedness, and convergence of both velocity and pressure solutions. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that the inclusion of the linear time relaxation term preserves the long-time stability of the unregularized BDF2LE scheme. Finally, numerical experiments are presented that demonstrate the added stability and accuracy that time relaxation can provide.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights

In this paper, we propose a set of simple benchmarks for the evaluation of data-based models for real-time streamflow forecasting, such as those developed with sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. The benchmarks are also data-based and provide context to judge incremental improvements in the performance metrics from the more complicated approaches. The benchmarks include temporal and spatial persistence, persistence corrected for baseflow and streamflow, as well as river distance weighted runoff obtained from space-time distributed rainfall. In the development of the benchmarks, we use basic hydrologic insights such as flow aggregation by the river network, scale-dependence in basin response, streamflow partitioning into quick flow and baseflow, water travel time, and rainfall averaging by the basin width function. The study uses 140 streamflow gauges in Iowa that cover a range of basin scales between 7 and 37,000 km 2 . The data cover 17 years. This work demonstrates that the proposed benchmarks can provide good performance according to several commonly used metrics. For example, streamflow forecasting at half of the test locations across years achieves a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.6 or higher at one-day ahead lead time, and 20% of cases reach the KGE of 0.8 or higher. The proposed benchmarks are easy to implement and should prove useful for developers of data-based as well as physics-based hydrologic models and real-time data assimilation techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Joint impedance and facies inversion of time-lapse seismic data for improving monitoring of CO 2 incidentally stored from CO 2 EOR

Time-lapse seismic monitoring is an effective and proven technology for mapping the distribution of CO 2 in a subsurface reservoir. When injected CO 2 displaces other reservoir fluids, porous-medium properties are changed and thus the seismic impedance changes, causing time-lapse seismic amplitude differences in the injection zones. The analysis and interpretation of images created from these amplitude differences can provide information about reservoir architecture and the CO 2 migration within the reservoir. Incorporating seismic inversion and rock physics into the interpretation of time-lapse seismic data can considerably improve the modeling and monitoring to detect and assess the location of CO 2 over time. The joint inversion method presented in this paper has an integral representation of the geology in the inversion algorithm using elastic facies, which provides information about the spatial distribution of the geologic heterogeneities controlling the movement of fluids in the reservoir. The method was successfully applied to time-lapse seismic data from a mature oil field undergoing CO 2 enhanced oil recovery. The estimated seismic acoustic impedances and facies reflect the characteristics of individual geologic facies and fluid conditions of the reservoir subject to CO 2 injection. Finally, the probabilities estimated by the joint impedance and facies inversion for the reservoir's litho-fluid facies can be used for forecasting CO 2 saturation and pressure changes within the target reservoir.

4D seismic↗

Local time stepping for the shallow water equations in MPAS

In this work we assess the performance of a set of local time-stepping (LTS) schemes for the shallow water equations implemented in the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The goal of LTS is to speed up the simulation by allowing different time-steps on different regions of the computational grid. The LTS schemes considered here were originally introduced by Hoang et al. (2019) [26], who laid out the mathematical foundation of the methods. Here, the authors take on the task of presenting a fast, efficient and scalable parallel implementation of these LTS methods on high performance computing machines, with the aim to provide a recipe for other climate modeling groups that may be interested in employing LTS algorithms in their codes. As a matter of fact, even if MPAS is our framework of choice, our approach is general enough and could be of interest to other groups beyond the MPAS community. Due to their nature, LTS methods possess an inherent load imbalance that needs to be carefully addressed in order to obtain efficient scalability. Even more important is the far from trivial task of computing the right-hand side terms only on specific LTS regions during the time-stepping procedure. An inefficient handling of this task causes a drastic decay of the CPU time performance, making the LTS algorithms practically of no use. The emphasis of the present work is therefore on the computational and parallel aspects of the LTS methods, whose proper treatment is crucial to make the methods run faster against existing strategies, such as for instance high-order explicit global time-stepping schemes. This is in fact the ultimate goal of using an LTS procedure and it is the one to which we direct all our optimization efforts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Noninvasive acoustic time-of-flight measurements in heated, hermetically-sealed high explosives using a convolutional neural network

In this work, we present a data-driven technique for measuring the time-of-flight through material sealed within a container. Time-of-flight measurement provides a noninvasive means of quantifying the sound speed profile within a material by transmitting an acoustic burst and then measuring the time required for the burst to arrive at an opposing receiver. In a hermetically-sealed cylindrical container, a portion of the acoustic energy propagates through the material as a bulk wave, while the remainder of the acoustic energy propagates around the container walls as guided waves. As a result, interference from the guided waves obscures the bulk arrival, inhibiting measurement of the sound speed. The technique uses a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to identify critical features in the measured waveforms and identify bulk wave arrivals. We demonstrate this time-of-flight measurement technique on high explosive-filled containers as they are heated from room temperature to detonation. This is a particularly challenging application for acoustic time-of-flight measurements as the high explosives have significant sound speed gradients as they undergo heating, and they lead to significant attenuation of the bulk wave, as opposed to the guided waves, which do not suffer significant attenuation. We characterize the performance of the CNN as a function of the high explosive temperature and as a function of the CNN hyperparameters. We then provide physical insight into the error trends.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The impact of the third O 2 addition reaction network on ignition delay times of neo-pentane

In this work, we studied the oxidation of neo-pentane by combining experiments, theoretical calculations, and mechanistic developments to elucidate the impact of the 3rd O 2 addition reaction network on ignition delay time predictions. The experiments are based on photoionization mass spectrometry in jet-stirred and time-resolved flow reactors allowing for sensitive detection of the keto-hydroperoxide (KHP) and keto-dihydroperoxide (KDHP) intermediates. With neo-pentane exhibiting a unique symmetric molecular structure, which consequently results only in single KHP and KDHP isomers, theoretical calculations of ionization and fragment appearance energies and of absolute photoionization cross sections enabled the unambiguous identification and quantification of the KHP intermediate. Its temperature and time-resolved profiles together with calculated and experimentally observed KHP-to-KDHP signal ratios were compared to simulation results based on a newly developed mechanism that describes the 3rd O 2 addition reaction network. A satisfactory agreement has been observed between the experimental data points and the simulation results, thus adding confidence to the model's overall performance. Finally, this mechanism was used to predict ignition delay times reported previously in shock tube and rapid compression machine experiments (J. Bugler et al., Combust. Flame 163 (2016) 138–156). While the model accurately reproduces the experimental data, simulations with and without the 3rd O 2 addition reaction network included reveal only a negligible effect on the predicted ignition delay times at 10 and 20 atm. According to model calculations, low temperatures and high pressures promote the importance of the 3rd O2 addition reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud Process Coupling and Time Integration in the E3SM Atmosphere Model

Abstract In this study, we find significant sensitivity to the choice of time step for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model's atmospheric component, leading to large decreases in the magnitude of cloud forcing when the time step is reduced to 10 s. Reducing the time step size for the microphysics increases precipitation, leading to a drying of the atmosphere and an increase in surface evaporation. This effect is amplified when the microphysics is substepped together with other cloud physics processes. Coupling the model's dynamics and physics more frequently reduces cloud fraction at lower altitudes, while producing more cloud liquid at higher altitudes. Reducing the deep convection time step also reduces low cloud mass and cloud fraction. Together, these results suggest that cloud physics in a global circulation model can depend strongly on time step and, in particular, on the frequency with which cloud‐related processes are coupled with each other and with the model dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Lead Times of Warm Water Volumes to ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) and western equatorial Pacific WWV (WWV w ) are two important long-lead time El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event precursors. Here, for this work, we utilize the recharge-discharge oscillator framework to obtain the analytical solution of WWV and WWV w lead times to ENSO sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Both WWV and WWVw lead times show a strong dependence on the inherent ENSO periodicity, whereas WWV lead time is further modulated by the air-sea coupling strength and ENSO SST spatial pattern. The derived solution is able to explain observed decadal variations in lead times of WWV to SST in terms of variations in ENSO periodicity and air-sea coupling strength.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Broken time-reversal symmetry in the topological superconductor UPt 3

Topological properties of materials are of fundamental as well as practical importance. Of particular interest are unconventional superconductors that break time-reversal symmetry, for which the superconducting state is protected topologically and vortices can host Majorana fermions with potential use in quantum computing. However, in striking contrast to the unconventional A phase of superfluid 3 He where chiral symmetry was directly observed, identification of broken time-reversal symmetry of the superconducting order parameter, a key component of chiral symmetry, has presented a challenge in bulk materials. The two leading candidates for bulk chiral superconductors are UPt 3 and Sr 2 RuO 4 , although evidence for broken time-reversal symmetry comes largely from surface-sensitive measurements. A long-sought demonstration of broken time-reversal symmetry in bulk Sr 2 RuO 4 is the observation of edge currents, which has so far not been successful. The situation for UPt 3 is not much better. In this work, we use vortices to probe the superconducting state in ultraclean crystals of UPt 3 . Using small-angle neutron scattering, a strictly bulk probe, we demonstrate that the vortices possess an internal degree of freedom in one of its three superconducting phases, providing direct evidence for bulk broken time-reversal symmetry in this material.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Integrated edge-to-exascale workflow for real-time steering in neutron scattering experiments

We introduce a computational framework that integrates artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and high-performance computing to enable real-time steering of neutron scattering experiments using an edge-to-exascale workflow. Focusing on time-of-flight neutron event data at the Spallation Neutron Source, our approach combines temporal processing of four-dimensional neutron event data with predictive modeling for multidimensional crystallography. At the core of this workflow is the Temporal Fusion Transformer model, which provides voxel-level precision in predicting 3D neutron scattering patterns. The system incorporates edge computing for rapid data preprocessing and exascale computing via the Frontier supercomputer for large-scale AI model training, enabling adaptive, data-driven decisions during experiments. This framework optimizes neutron beam time, improves experimental accuracy, and lays the foundation for automation in neutron scattering. Although real-time experiment steering is still in the proof-of-concept stage, the demonstrated potential of this system offers a substantial reduction in data processing time from hours to minutes via distributed training, and significant improvements in model accuracy, setting the stage for widespread adoption across neutron scattering facilities and more efficient exploration of complex material systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Plasmon-induced excitation energy transfer in silver nanoparticle dimers: A real-time TDDFTB investigation

Here, using real-time quantum dynamics calculations, we perform theoretical investigations of light-induced interactions and electronic excitation transfer in a silver nanoparticle dimer. Real-time time-dependent density functional tight-binding (RT-TDDFTB) calculations provide details of the quantum dynamical processes at an electronic/atomistic level with attosecond resolution. The computational efficiency of RT-TDDFTB allows us to examine electronic dynamics up to picosecond time scales. With time scales varying over six orders of magnitude, we provide insight into interactions between the nanoparticle and laser and between nanoparticles. Our results show that the coupling between nanoparticle monomers is dependent on the separation distance between the nanoparticles in the dimer. As the interparticle distance is varied, the dipole–dipole interactions and electronic excitation transfer mechanisms are markedly different. At large distances (from 50 to 20 Å), the energy transfer from NP1 to NP2 becomes more efficient as the interparticle distance decreases. The total dipole moment of the Ag 14 nanoparticle dimer increases linearly at an interparticle distance of 20 Å and reaches its maximum after 1.2 ps. The electronic excitation transfer is also the most efficient at 20 Å. At short distances, back-transfer effects reduce the ability of the dimer and NP1 to accept energy from the incident electric field. We attribute the distance-dependent features of the nanoparticle dimer to the beating between the laser acting on NP1 and the back transfer from NP2 to NP1.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Imaging nanoscale carrier, thermal, and structural dynamics with time-resolved and ultrafast electron energy-loss spectroscopy

Time-resolved and ultrafast electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS) is an emerging technique for measuring photoexcited carriers, lattice dynamics, and near-fields across femtosecond to microsecond timescales. When performed in either a specialized scanning transmission electron microscope or ultrafast electron microscope (UEM), time-resolved and ultrafast EELS can directly image charge carriers, lattice vibrations, and heat dissipation following photoexcitation or applied bias. Yet, recent advances in theoretical calculations and electron optics are often required to realize the full potential of ultrafast EEL spectrum imaging. Here, in this review, we present a comprehensive overview of the recent progress in the theory and instrumentation of time-resolved and ultrafast EELS. We begin with an introduction to the technique, followed by a physical description of the loss function. We outline approaches for calculating and interpreting ground-state and transient EEL spectra spanning low-loss plasmons to core-level excitations analogous to x-ray absorption. We then survey the current state of time-resolved and ultrafast EELS techniques beyond photon-induced near-field electron microscopy, highlighting abilities to image carrier and thermal dynamics. Finally, we examine future directions enabled by emerging technologies, including electron beam monochromation, in situ and operando cells, laser-free UEM, and high-speed direct electron detectors. These advances position time-resolved and ultrafast EELS as a critical tool for uncovering nanoscale dynamic processes in quantum materials and solar energy conversion devices.

Computational methods↗