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At least 523 records · Page 29

SCALE capabilities for high temperature gas-cooled reactor analysis

The SCALE code system’s ability to address stochastic distributions of fuel particles within a graphite matrix has been revisited in both multigroup (MG) features and continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo methods. Furthermore, this paper describes current and emergent SCALE capabilities within the CSAS sequence to address double-heterogeneous systems and presents verification and validation studies of these methods and data. Good agreement was obtained for a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) fuel pebble model between CSAS MG eigenvalue calculations and corresponding CE reference solutions. Code-to-code comparisons for this HTGR pebble model showed good agreement of CSAS-KENO and CSAS-Shift CE calculations and the Serpent and MCNP codes in terms of eigenvalues and reaction rate ratios. Validation studies based on two HTGR experiments resulted in good agreement between MG and CE results, as well as between experiment and calculation, although the level of agreement was significantly influenced by the applied ENDF/B nuclear data library.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Discrete-Time Causal Control of a Wave Energy Converter With Finite Stroke in Stochastic Waves

We consider feedback control design for a wave energy converter (WEC) for which the power takeoff (PTO) system has a finite stroke limit. Stationary stochastic wave loading is assumed, with a known spectrum, and the plant dynamics are assumed to be linear. We develop a technique for the design of a discrete-time controller, which has three design stages. In the first stage, a linear controller is optimized while imposing a relaxation of the maximum stroke constraint on the design. In the second stage, a tandem nonlinear feedback loop is designed for the purpose of stroke protection. In the third stage, the two designs (linear and nonlinear) are fused in a manner that preserves the stability of the overall system. The technique is demonstrated in a simulation of a simple cylindrical buoy. We show that the controller may be tuned through the adjustment of scalar design parameters, which adjust the tradeoff between the mean generated power and the force levels required to protect the stroke.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Optimal generalized multistep integration formulae for real-time digital simulation

The problem of discretizing a dynamical system for real-time digital simulation is considered. Treating the system and its simulation as stochastic processes leads to a statistical characterization of simulator fidelity. A plant discretization procedure based on an efficient matrix generalization of explicit linear multistep discrete integration formulae is introduced, which minimizes a weighted sum of the mean squared steady-state and transient error between the system and simulator outputs.

Moerder, D. D.↗

Decentralized stochastic control

Decentralized stochastic control is characterized by being decentralized in that the information to one controller is not the same as information to another controller. The system including the information has a stochastic or uncertain component. This complicates the development of decision rules which one determines under the assumption that the system is deterministic. The system is dynamic which means the present decisions affect future system responses and the information in the system. This circumstance presents a complex problem where tools like dynamic programming are no longer applicable. These difficulties are discussed from an intuitive viewpoint. Particular assumptions are introduced which allow a limited theory which produces mechanizable affine decision rules.

Speyer, J. L.↗

Temporal complementarity of marine renewables with wind and solar generation: Implications for GB system benefits

Wave and tidal energy have the potential to provide benefits to power systems with high proportions of stochastic renewable generation. This is particularly applicable with wind and solar photovoltaics, as the offsetting of these renewable resources results in more reliable renewable generation. This study utilises ten metrics to quantify the temporal complementarity and supply-demand balancing requirements of the energy mix in Great Britain, to investigate the potential magnitude of these system benefits. Wave and tidal generation profiles are created using historical resource data and hydrodynamic models. The results show that the inclusion of wave and tidal generation creates a renewable energy mix which is more available under multiple conditions: throughout a year of operation; at times of peak demand; for multiple consecutive hourly time periods; and at times when wind and solar generation are not available. Three regional case studies also show that the inclusion of marine energy allows for improved regional supply-demand matching, reducing instances of energy shortage and excess and potentially relieving transmission congestion at particularly constrained locations within GB. Finally, the implications of these findings are discussed in terms of GB wholesale market operation, system balancing and system security.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Physical Models of Cognition

This paper presents and discusses physical models for simulating some aspects of neural intelligence, and, in particular, the process of cognition. The main departure from the classical approach here is in utilization of a terminal version of classical dynamics introduced by the author earlier. Based upon violations of the Lipschitz condition at equilibrium points, terminal dynamics attains two new fundamental properties: it is spontaneous and nondeterministic. Special attention is focused on terminal neurodynamics as a particular architecture of terminal dynamics which is suitable for modeling of information flows. Terminal neurodynamics possesses a well-organized probabilistic structure which can be analytically predicted, prescribed, and controlled, and therefore which presents a powerful tool for modeling real-life uncertainties. Two basic phenomena associated with random behavior of neurodynamic solutions are exploited. The first one is a stochastic attractor ; a stable stationary stochastic process to which random solutions of a closed system converge. As a model of the cognition process, a stochastic attractor can be viewed as a universal tool for generalization and formation of classes of patterns. The concept of stochastic attractor is applied to model a collective brain paradigm explaining coordination between simple units of intelligence which perform a collective task without direct exchange of information. The second fundamental phenomenon discussed is terminal chaos which occurs in open systems. Applications of terminal chaos to information fusion as well as to explanation and modeling of coordination among neurons in biological systems are discussed. It should be emphasized that all the models of terminal neurodynamics are implementable in analog devices, which means that all the cognition processes discussed in the paper are reducible to the laws of Newtonian mechanics.

Zak, Michail↗

Stochastically Realized Observables for Excitonic Molecular Aggregates

In this work, we show that a stochastic approach enables calculations of the optical properties of large 2-dimensional and nanotubular excitonic molecular aggregates. Previous studies of such systems relied on numerically diagonalizing the dense and disordered Frenkel Hamiltonian, which scales approximately as $\mathcal{O}$($N$ 3 ) for $N$ dye molecules. Our approach scales much more efficiently as $\mathcal{O}$($N$ log($N$)), enabling quick study of systems with a million of coupled molecules on the micrometer size scale. We calculate several important experimental observables, including the optical absorption spectrum and density of states, and develop a stochastic formalism for the participation ratio. Quantitative agreement with traditional matrix diagonalization methods is demonstrated for both small- and intermediate-size systems. The stochastic methodology enables the study of the effects of spatial-correlation in site energies on the optical signatures of large 2D aggregates. Our results demonstrate that stochastic methods present a path forward for screening structural parameters and validating experiments and theoretical predictions in large excitonic aggregates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multistage Stochastic optimization for mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric system with renewable energy uncertainty

The uncertainties resulting from the escalating penetration of renewable energy resources pose severe challenges to the efficient operation of modern power systems. Hydroelectricity is characterized by its flexibility, controllability, and reliability, and thus becomes one of the most ideal energy resources to hedge against such uncertainties. This paper studies the mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of a cascaded hydroelectric system (CHS) consisting of multiple cascaded reservoirs and hydroelectric units. To precisely describe the mid-term water regulation policies, the hydraulic coupling relationship and water-energy nexus of CHS are incorporated into the proposed optimization model. The uncertainties of natural water inflow and the power outputs of wind/solar energy generation are taken into consideration and captured via a stochastic process modeled by a scenario tree. A multistage stochastic optimization (MSO) approach is developed to coordinate the complementary operations of multiple energy resources, by optimizing the mid-term water resource management, generation scheduling, and maintenance scheduling of CHS. The proposed MSO model is formulated as a large-scale mixed-integer linear program that presents significant computational intractability. To address this issue, a tailored Benders decomposition algorithm is developed. Two real-world case studies are conducted to demonstrate the capability and characteristics of the proposed model and algorithm. The computational results show that the proposed MSO model can exploit the flexibility of hydroelectricity to efficiently respond to variable wind and solar power, and reserve water resources for the generation in peak months to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel. Furthermore, the proposed solution approach also exhibits promising computational efficiency when handling large-scale models.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Model reduction for discrete bilinear systems

A model reduction method for discrete bilinear systems is developed which matches q sets of Volterra and covariance parameters. These parameters are shown to represent both deterministic and stochastic attributes of the discrete bilinear system. A reduced order model which matches these q sets of parameters is defined to be a q-Volterra covariance equivalent realization (q-Volterra COVER). An algorithm is presented which constructs a class of q-Volterra COVERs parameterized by solutions to a Hermitian, quadratic, matrix equation. The algorithm is applied to a bilinear model of a robot manipulator.

King, A. M.↗

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Pulse control of single degree-of-freedom system

The possibility of using active control for structural and mechanical systems is examined. Open loop adaptive control of structural systems subjected to deterministic and stochastic excitations is considered by means of an algorithm for a single-degree-of-freedom oscillator. The algorithm is heuristic and requires continuous monitoring of the state variables, with a pulse control applied when some prespecified level of control is exceeded. The control algorithm is based on the principle that the gradual rhythmic increase of the structural response can be eliminated by applying a pulse of suitable magnitude in the proper direction, thereby avoiding the application of large forces over sustained periods of time. The optimum pulse magnitude is determined as the minimum rms response of the system. Application to linear and nonlinear systems, as well as in chatter suppression, are outlined.

Udwadia, F. E.↗

Non-Pharmacological Countermeasure to Decrease Landing Sickness and Improve Functional Performance

Upon return from long-duration spaceflight, 100% of crewmembers experience motion sickness (MS) symptoms. The interactions between crewmembers' adaptation to a gravitational transition, the performance decrements resulting from MS and/or use of promethazine (PMZ), and the constraints imposed by mission task demands could significantly challenge and limit an astronaut's ability to perform functional tasks during gravitational transitions. Stochastic resonance (SR) is "noise benefit": adding noise to a system might increase the information (examples to the left and above). Stochastic vestibular stimulation (SVS), or low levels of noise applied to the vestibular system, improves balance and locomotor performance (Goel et al. 2015, Mulavara et al. 2011, 2015). In hemi-lesioned rat models, Samoudi et al. 2012 found that SVS increased GABA release on the lesioned, but not the intact side. Activation of the GABA pathway is important in modulating MS and promoting adaptability (Cohen 2008) and was seen to reverse MS symptoms in rats after unilateral labyrinthectomy (Magnusson et al. 2000). Thus, SVS could be used to promote GABA pathways to reduce MS and promote adaptability, eliminate the need for PMZ or other performance-inhibiting drugs.

Rosenberg, M. J. F.↗

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation, development and application of optimal output feedback theory. Volume 2: Development of an optimal, limited state feedback outer-loop digital flight control system for 3-D terminal area operation

This report contains the development of a digital outer-loop three dimensional radio navigation (3-D RNAV) flight control system for a small commercial jet transport. The outer-loop control system is designed using optimal stochastic limited state feedback techniques. Options investigated using the optimal limited state feedback approach include integrated versus hierarchical control loop designs, 20 samples per second versus 5 samples per second outer-loop operation and alternative Type 1 integration command errors. Command generator tracking techniques used in the digital control design enable the jet transport to automatically track arbitrary curved flight paths generated by waypoints. The performance of the design is demonstrated using detailed nonlinear aircraft simulations in the terminal area, frequency domain multi-input sigma plots, frequency domain single-input Bode plots and closed-loop poles. The response of the system to a severe wind shear during a landing approach is also presented.

Broussard, J. R.↗

Home energy management under realistic and uncertain conditions: A comparison of heuristic, deterministic, and stochastic control methods

We report home energy management systems (HEMS) have been shown to reduce energy bills and to provide grid services including peak demand reduction and demand flexibility. However, uncertainty in residential energy systems is a significant issue and can reduce the benefits of a HEMS to the homeowner or grid operator. Sources of uncertainty include weather forecasts, predictions of energy-related occupant activities (e.g., hot water draws), and parameter estimation for the building envelope and energy-consuming equipment. This paper tackles the problem of uncertainty by developing a framework that simulates HEMS in uncertain conditions and evaluates the performance of multiple control strategies. A linear, reduced-order residential building model for model predictive control applications is derived and compared to a full-order model. Stochastic model predictive control is shown to perform better than deterministic and heuristic methods when considering realistic forecasts with uncertainty. The framework can evaluate the performance of HEMS in real-world applications, which can help de-risk HEMS deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗