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NASA NTRS2021

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of 2 the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a type of weather pattern known to be important for moving water vapor from the warm, moist tropics to the cool, dry polar regions; when they reach midlatitudes in the winter time, they are commonly associated with heavy precipitation. Recent studies that assess the impacts of global climate change on ARs tend to agree that there will be more ARs in a warmer climate, and that ARs will tend to be more extreme. However, it has been increasingly recognized by the AR research community that these results may depend on the method used to identify ARs and the choice of climate model. This study reports results from a controlled experiment, involving an international research community, that aims to show how different AR identification methods and climate models might impact our scientific understanding of ARs in the future. This experiment shows that there will likely be more ARs in the future, and that ARs will generally have a larger spatial footprint. This experiment also shows that uncertainty in these results are large, with the uncertainty from AR identification methods outweighing that of climate models. Future efforts to better understand the physics of ARs may help us reduce this uncertainty.

T A OBrien↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

What’s Next in Regional (Air) Mobility? Finding the next possible big ideas in selected problems

This presentation summarizes studies ongoing under the "What's Next in Regional (Air) Mobility" umbrella within the Intercenter Systems Analysis Team. It includes a look at the Regional Air Mobility (RAM) market potential, simulation of a RAM passenger network to gather statistics, and scrutinizes airport energy needs to support RAM operations. It also references a companion presentation provided by the DOT Volpe Center presented by Jacob Wishart related to RAM market and demand estimates.

Advanced Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS1999

System and Method for Finite Element Simulation of Helicopter Turbulence

The present invention provides a turbulence model that has been developed for blade-element helicopter simulation. This model uses an innovative temporal and geometrical distribution algorithm that preserves the statistical characteristics of the turbulence spectra over the rotor disc, while providing velocity components in real time to each of five blade-element stations along each of four blades. for a total of twenty blade-element stations. The simulator system includes a software implementation of flight dynamics that adheres to the guidelines for turbulence set forth in military specifications. One of the features of the present simulator system is that it applies simulated turbulence to the rotor blades of the helicopter, rather than to its center of gravity. The simulator system accurately models the rotor penetration into a gust field. It includes time correlation between the front and rear of the main rotor, as well as between the side forces felt at the center of gravity and at the tail rotor. It also includes features for added realism, such as patchy turbulence and vertical gusts in to which the rotor disc penetrates. These features are realized by a unique real time implementation of the turbulence filters. The new simulator system uses two arrays one on either side of the main rotor to record the turbulence field and to produce time-correlation from the front to the rear of the rotor disc. The use of Gaussian Interpolation between the two arrays maintains the statistical properties of the turbulence across the rotor disc. The present simulator system and method may be used in future and existing real-time helicopter simulations with minimal increase in computational workload.

McFarland, R. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistically Consistent Dispersions of Line Loads to Uncertain Integrated Forces and Moments

This work presents a method to generate line loads that are consistent with integrated force and moment constraints, while also following the statistical distribution underlying known line load data. The motivation for this method is to address a particular problem that can arise during the pre-flight analysis of an ascent vehicle. That problem is constructing separate databases, for line loads and integrated aerodynamic coefficients, that contain different data and thus different amounts of quantified uncertainty. A dispersed line load method is described and applied to a data set generated by 29 computational fluid dynamics simulations at various angles of attack and sideslip. The statistical similarity of the generated line loads to the known data is confirmed by using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy 2-sample test. The promising results from this novel method are compared against results from applying an existing line load adjustment procedure to the same data set. Finally, potential future avenues of research are briefly discussed.

Aaron C. Burkhead↗

NASA NTRS1988

Annual Research Briefs, 1987

Lagrangian techniques have found widespread application to the prediction and understanding of turbulent transport phenomena and have yielded satisfactory results for different cases of shear flow problems. However, it must be kept in mind that in most experiments what is really available are Eulerian statistics, and it is far from obvious how to extract from them the information relevant to the Lagrangian behavior of the flow; in consequence, Lagrangian models still include some hypothesis for which no adequate supporting evidence was until now available. Direct numerical simulation of turbulence offers a new way to obtain Lagrangian statistics and so verify the validity of the current predictive models and the accuracy of their results. After the pioneering work of Riley (Riley and Patterson, 1974) in the 70's, some such results have just appeared in the literature (Lee et al, Yeung and Pope). The present contribution follows in part similar lines, but focuses on two particle statistics and comparison with existing models.

Moin, Parviz↗

NASA NTRS1983

Feature selection methodologies using simulated Thematic Mapper data

The present investigation is concerned with the determination of the intrinsic dimensionality of a simulated Thematic Mapper data set. In addition, the effectiveness and sensitivity of 'standard' statistics separability measures (i.e., transformed divergence) is evaluated in comparison to eigenvectors for identifying the optimum subset of the original Thematic Mapper Simulator (TMS) bands for classifying the various cover types. TMS data were collected on May 2, 1979 by NASA's NS001 aircraft multispectral scanner over a bottomland forested area in South Carolina near the city of Camden. It is found that the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of a covariance matrix from a multispectral scanner system (MSS) data set can be obtained without having to actually transform the data.

Dean, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Direct Numerical Simulations of Transitional/Turbulent Wakes

The interest in transitional/turbulent wakes spans the spectrum from an intellectual pursuit to understand the complex underlying physics to a critical need in aeronautical engineering and other disciplines to predict component/system performance and reliability. Cylinder wakes have been studied extensively over several decades to gain a better understanding of the basic flow phenomena that are encountered in such flows. Experimental, computational and theoretical means have been employed in this effort. While much has been accomplished there are many important issues that need to be resolved. The physics of the very near wake of the cylinder (less than three diameters downstream) is perhaps the most challenging of them all. This region comprises the two detached shear layers, the recirculation region and wake flow. The interaction amongst these three components is to some extent still a matter of conjecture. Experimental techniques have generated a large percentage of the data that have provided us with the current state of understanding of the subject. More recently computational techniques have been used to simulate cylinder wakes, and the data from such simulations are being used to both refine our understanding of such flows as well as provide new insights. A few large eddy and direct numerical simulations (LES and DNS) of cylinder wakes have appeared in the literature in the recent past. These investigations focus on the low Reynolds number range where the cylinder boundary layer is laminar (sub-critical range). However, from an engineering point of view, there is considerable interest in the situation where the upper and/or lower boundary layer of an airfoil is turbulent, and these turbulent boundary layers separate from the airfoil to contribute to the formation of the wake downstream. In the case of cylinders, this only occurs at relatively large unit Reynolds numbers. However, in the case of airfoils, the boundary layer has the opportunity to transition to turbulence on the airfoil surface at a relatively lower unit Reynolds number because the characteristic length of the airfoil is typically one to two orders of magnitude larger than the trailing edge diameter. This transition to turbulence would occur unless there is a strong favorable pressure gradient that results in the boundary layer remaining laminar or transitional over the surface of the airfoil. This presentation will focus on two direct numerical simulations that have been performed at NASA ARC. The first is of a cylinder wake with laminar separating boundary layers. The second is the wake of a flat plate with a circular trailing edge. The upper and lower plate surface boundary layers are both turbulent and statistically identical. Thus the computed wake is symmetric in a statistical sense. This flow is more representative of airfoil wakes than cylinder wakes. Results from the two simulations including flow visualization and turbulence statistics in the near wake will be presented at the seminar.

wakes↗

NASA NTRS2015

Implementation of an Open-Scenario, Long-Term Space Debris Simulation Approach

This paper provides a status update on the implementation of a flexible, long-term space debris simulation approach. The motivation is to build a tool that can assess the long-term impact of various options for debris-remediation, including the LightForce space debris collision avoidance concept that diverts objects using photon pressure [9]. State-of-the-art simulation approaches that assess the long-term development of the debris environment use either completely statistical approaches, or they rely on large time steps on the order of several days if they simulate the positions of single objects over time. They cannot be easily adapted to investigate the impact of specific collision avoidance schemes or de-orbit schemes, because the efficiency of a collision avoidance maneuver can depend on various input parameters, including ground station positions and orbital and physical parameters of the objects involved in close encounters (conjunctions). Furthermore, maneuvers take place on timescales much smaller than days. For example, LightForce only changes the orbit of a certain object (aiming to reduce the probability of collision), but it does not remove entire objects or groups of objects. In the same sense, it is also not straightforward to compare specific de-orbit methods in regard to potential collision risks during a de-orbit maneuver. To gain flexibility in assessing interactions with objects, we implement a simulation that includes every tracked space object in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and propagates all objects with high precision and variable time-steps as small as one second. It allows the assessment of the (potential) impact of physical or orbital changes to any object. The final goal is to employ a Monte Carlo approach to assess the debris evolution during the simulation time-frame of 100 years and to compare a baseline scenario to debris remediation scenarios or other scenarios of interest. To populate the initial simulation, we use the entire space-track object catalog in LEO. We then use a high precision propagator to propagate all objects over the entire simulation duration. If collisions are detected, the appropriate number of debris objects are created and inserted into the simulation framework. Depending on the scenario, further objects, e.g. due to new launches, can be added. At the end of the simulation, the total number of objects above a cut-off size and the number of detected collisions provide benchmark parameters for the comparison between scenarios. The simulation approach is computationally intensive as it involves tens of thousands of objects; hence we use a highly parallel approach employing up to a thousand cores on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer for a single run. This paper describes our simulation approach, the status of its implementation, the approach to developing scenarios and examples of first test runs.

laser↗

NASA NTRS1973

A numerical study of rays in random media

Statistics of electromagnetic rays in a random medium are studied numerically by the Monte Carlo method. Two dimensional random surfaces with prescribed correlation functions are used to simulate the random media. Rays are then traced in these sample media. Statistics of the ray properties such as the ray positions and directions are computed. Histograms showing the distributions of the ray positions and directions at different points along the ray path as well as at given points in space are given. The numerical experiment is repeated for different cases corresponding to weakly and strongly random media with isotropic and anisotropic irregularities. Results are compared with those derived from theoretical investigations whenever possible.

Youakim, M. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Potential, velocity, and density fields from sparse and noisy redshift-distance samples - Method

A method for recovering the three-dimensional potential, velocity, and density fields from large-scale redshift-distance samples is described. Galaxies are taken as tracers of the velocity field, not of the mass. The density field and the initial conditions are calculated using an iterative procedure that applies the no-vorticity assumption at an initial time and uses the Zel'dovich approximation to relate initial and final positions of particles on a grid. The method is tested using a cosmological N-body simulation 'observed' at the positions of real galaxies in a redshift-distance sample, taking into account their distance measurement errors. Malmquist bias and other systematic and statistical errors are extensively explored using both analytical techniques and Monte Carlo simulations.

Dekel, Avishai↗

NASA NTRS1985

An error-dependent model of instrument-scanning behavior in commercial airline pilots

A new flexible model of pilot instrument scanning behavior is presented which assumes that the pilot uses a set of deterministic scanning patterns on the pilot's perception of error in the state of the aircraft, and the pilot's knowledge of the interactive nature of the aircraft's systems. Statistical analyses revealed that a three stage Markov process composed of the pilot's three predicted lookpoints (LP), occurring 1/30, 2/30, and 3/30 of a second prior to each LP, accurately modelled the scanning behavior of 14 commercial airline pilots while flying steep turn maneuvers in a Boeing 737 flight simulator. The modelled scanning data for each pilot were not statistically different from the observed scanning data in comparisons of mean dwell time, entropy, and entropy rate. These findings represent the first direct evidence that pilots are using deterministic scanning patterns during instrument flight. The results are interpreted as direct support for the error dependent model and suggestions are made for further research that could allow for identification of the specific scanning patterns suggested by the model.

Jones, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A Simulated Geochemical Rover Mission to the Taurus-Littrow Valley of the Moon

We test the effectiveness of using an alpha backscatter, alpha-proton, X ray spectrometer on a remotely operated rover to analyze soils and provide geologically useful information about the Moon during a simulated mission to a hypothetical site resembling the Apollo 17 landing site. On the mission, 100 soil samples are "analyzed" for major elements at moderate analytical precision (e.g., typical relative sample standard deviation from counting statistics: Si[11%], Al[18%], Fe[6%], Mg[20%], Ca[5%]). Simulated compositions of soils are generated by combining compositions of components representing the major lithologies occurring at the site in known proportions. Simulated analyses are generated by degrading the simulated compositions according to the expected analytical precision of the analyzer. Compositions obtained from the simulated analyses are modeled by least squares mass balance as mixtures of the components, and the relative proportions of those components as predicted by the model are compared with the actual proportions used to generate the simulated composition. Boundary conditions of the modeling exercise are that all important lithologic components of the regolith are known and are represented by model components, and that the compositions of these components are well known. The effect of having the capability of determining one incompatible element at moderate precision (25%) is compared with the effect of the lack of this capability. We discuss likely limitations and ambiguities that would be encountered, but conclude that much of our knowledge about the Apollo 17 site (based on the return samples) regarding the distribution and relative abundances of lithologies in the regolith could be obtained. This success requires, however, that at least one incompatible element be determined.

Korotev, Randy L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Studies in Transition and Time Varying Turbulent Flows

The research focused on two areas: (a) the dynamics of forced turbulent flows and (b) time filtered Large Eddy Simulations (TLES). The dynamics of turbulent flows arising from external forcing of the turbulence are poorly understood. In particular, here are many unanswered questions relating the basic dynamical balances and the existence or nonexistence of statistical equilibrium of forced turbulent flows. The research used direct numerical simulations to explore these questions. The properties of the temporally filtered Navier-Stokes equations were also studied.

Grosch, Chester E.↗

NASA NTRS1973

System statistical reliability model and analysis

A digital computer code was developed to simulate the time-dependent behavior of the 5-kwe reactor thermoelectric system. The code was used to determine lifetime sensitivity coefficients for a number of system design parameters, such as thermoelectric module efficiency and degradation rate, radiator absorptivity and emissivity, fuel element barrier defect constant, beginning-of-life reactivity, etc. A probability distribution (mean and standard deviation) was estimated for each of these design parameters. Then, error analysis was used to obtain a probability distribution for the system lifetime (mean = 7.7 years, standard deviation = 1.1 years). From this, the probability that the system will achieve the design goal of 5 years lifetime is 0.993. This value represents an estimate of the degradation reliability of the system.

Lekach, V. S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

On-Line Analysis of Physiologic and Neurobehavioral Variables During Long-Duration Space Missions

The goal of this project is to develop reliable statistical algorithms for on-line analysis of physiologic and neurobehavioral variables monitored during long-duration space missions. Maintenance of physiologic and neurobehavioral homeostasis during long-duration space missions is crucial for ensuring optimal crew performance. If countermeasures are not applied, alterations in homeostasis will occur in nearly all-physiologic systems. During such missions data from most of these systems will be either continually and/or continuously monitored. Therefore, if these data can be analyzed as they are acquired and the status of these systems can be continually assessed, then once alterations are detected, appropriate countermeasures can be applied to correct them. One of the most important physiologic systems in which to maintain homeostasis during long-duration missions is the circadian system. To detect and treat alterations in circadian physiology during long duration space missions requires development of: 1) a ground-based protocol to assess the status of the circadian system under the light-dark environment in which crews in space will typically work; and 2) appropriate statistical methods to make this assessment. The protocol in Project 1, Circadian Entrainment, Sleep-Wake Regulation and Neurobehavioral will study human volunteers under the simulated light-dark environment of long-duration space missions. Therefore, we propose to develop statistical models to characterize in near real time circadian and neurobehavioral physiology under these conditions. The specific aims of this project are to test the hypotheses that: 1) Dynamic statistical methods based on the Kronauer model of the human circadian system can be developed to estimate circadian phase, period, amplitude from core-temperature data collected under simulated light- dark conditions of long-duration space missions. 2) Analytic formulae and numerical algorithms can be developed to compute the error in the estimates of circadian phase, period and amplitude determined from the data in Specific Aim 1. 3) Statistical models can detect reliably in near real- time (daily) significant alternations in the circadian physiology of individual subjects by analyzing the circadian and neurobehavioral data collected in Project 1. 4) Criteria can be developed using the Kronauer model and the recently developed Jewett model of cognitive -performance and subjective alertness to define altered circadian and neurobehavioral physiology and to set conditions for immediate administration of countermeasures.

Brown, Emery N.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Bayesian Statistical Models for Community Annoyance Survey Data

This paper demonstrates the use of two Bayesian statistical models to analyze single-event sonic boom exposure and human annoyance data from community response surveys. Each model is fit to data from a NASA pilot study.Unlike many community noise surveys, this study used a panel sample to collect multiple observations per participant instead of a single observation. Thus, a multilevel (also known as hierarchical or mixed-effects) model is used to account for the within-subject correlation in the panel sample data. This paper describes a multilevel logistic regression model and a multilevel ordinal regression model. The paper also proposes a method for calculating a summary dose-response curve from the multilevel models that represents the population. The two models’ summary dose-response curves are visually similar. However, their estimates differ when calculating the noise dose at a fixed percent highly annoyed.

Musical instruments↗

NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, a is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The Maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter alpha(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (P1) consistency (asymptotically unbiased). (P2) efficiency asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only he ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum-detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However. the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are attained in practice are investigated. The ML technique is then extended to estimate spectra information from an arbitrary number of astrophysics data sets produced by vastly different science instruments. This theory and its successful implementation will facilitate the interpretation of spectral information from multiple astrophysics missions and thereby permit the derivation of superior spectral parameter estimates based on the combination of data sets.

Howell, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, sigma(sub 2), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index sigma(sub 2) greater than sigma(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter sigma(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (Pl) consistency (asymptotically unbiased), (P2) efficiency (asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only be ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum- detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However, the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are stained in practice are investigated.

Howell, L. W., Jr.↗