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DOE OSTI2024

Sampling Size Optimization for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

Planetary protection (PP) is a discipline that focuses on minimizing the biological contamination of spacecraft to ensure compliance with international policy. Precise estimation of bioburden - the total number of microbes in or on spacecraft hardware – and the bioburden density are of utmost importance for PP. Such estimation is the way concordance with requirements is demonstrated, and it is critical for quantifying the potential risk of inadvertently contaminating other planetary bodies. Although a suite of molecular techniques have been used to thoroughly characterize and profile the microbiome of various cleanroom environments and spacecraft, the gold standard remains the physical enumeration of microbes via culturing of samples directly taken from spacecraft and associated surfaces. However, due to technical, budgetary, and programmatic constraints, only a manageable portion (around 10%) of the entire spacecraft surface is directly sampled with cotton swabs or wipes. To generate the bioburden current best estimate (CBE) for components not directly verifiable, the accepted approach is to apply a NASA-defined bioburden estimate based on the components’ manufacturing or assembly environment. This approach utilizes a prespecified bioburden density estimation that applies a maximum value across the total surface area of the specified component. For hardware components that underwent similar assembly processes, an implied bioburden is adopted for all components, based on a direct verification of a representative component within the same lot. Once all components have a CBE, the bioburden estimates are generated. In previous publication [ 1], we have shown that statistical risks quantifying the accuracy of the estimates for sampled, prespecified, and implied components can be derived and ranked. For mean squared error (MSE) function, the risks are available analytically and hence a cost function can be obtained to optimize the risks with respect to the sampling area and sampling cost. Since the sampling area and sampling cost are two complimentary variables, their sum will have a well-defined minimum. This paper presents the multivariate optimization of the integrated risk of an empirical Bayes estimator to determine the optimal sampling schedule for a given number of components. It is assumed that given a number of components, N, the bioburden density for each component can either be sampled, implied, or prespecified. The multivariate optimization searches through different options to sample, imply or prespecify the bioburden density for a component, and account for the component’s surface area and cost of sampling. The idea of the optimization is based on the observation that the statistical risk of using an estimator is a monotonically decreasing function of the sampled area. The larger the sampled area, the lower the risk of using the estimator as the estimator becomes more and more accurate as the sampling area increases. On the other hand, the cost of sampling is monotonically increasing as the sampled surface grows. This makes the risk and total cost of sampling complimentary variables which can be counterbalanced to achieve an optimal overall value with respect to the sampled surface. In this paper, the integrated risk has been used to quantify the accuracy of the estimator. This risk has been selected because it depends on neither the true value of the parameter nor on the collected data. The cost of each sample was also available to obtain the total cost of sampling of N components. The paper will present the results based on computer-simulated data as well as the data collected during the InSight mission. The computer-simulated data have N components with randomly generated total areas and each component assigned to one of the three categories according to the method of estimating of bioburden density: sampled, implied, or prespecified. The cost of sampling is also available. The cost of sampling is estimated based on a cost model provided by the planetary protection group at JPL. For this paper, the overall cost was assumed to be a linear function of exposure. The optimization process finds the allocation of the components to the three categories that minimizes the tradeoff between integrated risk and total cost. For the InSight data, a set of components is selected representing all three categories, and optimization is performed to determine if the performed allocation was optimal or if a better allocation could have been obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt not only perform an accurate estimation of bioburden density but also do it in an optimal way.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Carbon Dioxide Washout Measurement Techniques in the Mark-III Space Suit

A space suit must provide adequate carbon dioxide (CO2) washout inside the helmet to prevent symptoms of hypercapnia. In the past, an oronasal mask has been used to measure the inspired air of suited subjects to determine a space suit's CO2 washout capability. While sufficient for super-ambient pressure testing of space suits, the oronasal mask fails to meet several human factors and operational criterion needed for future sub-ambient pressure testing (e.g. compatibility with a Valsalva device). This paper describes the evaluation of a nasal cannula as a device for measuring inspired air within a space suit. Eight test subjects were tasked with walking on a treadmill or operating an arm ergometer to achieve target metabolic rates of 1000, 2000, and 3000 British thermal units per hour (BTU/hr), at flow rates of 2, 4, and 6 actual cubic feet per minute (ACFM). Each test configuration was conducted twice, with subjects instructed to breathe either through their nose only, or however they felt comfortable. Test data shows that the nasal cannula provides more statistically consistent data across test subjects than the oronasal mask used in previous tests. The data also shows that inhaling/exhaling through only the nose provides a lower sample variance than a normal breathing style. Nose-only breathing reports better CO2 washout due to several possible reasons, including a decreased respiratory rate, an increased tidal volume, and because nose-only breathing directs all of the exhaled CO2 down and away from the oronasal region. The test subjects in this study provided feedback that the nasal cannula is comfortable and can be used with the Valsalva device.

Meginnis, Ian M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating User Errors and Temporal Trends in Marine Fish Communities Using 360-Degree Underwater Photography

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments, offering a non-invasive and potentially more efficient approach to marine species observations. eDNA monitoring could be especially useful in and around sites targeted for marine energy generation as these regions need regular monitoring that would be impractical with traditional techniques. Before we can fully rely upon eDNA, we must first verify its accuracy against other proven methods, such as the use of underwater photography. In this study, I deployed a 360-degree camera in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month during several hours overlapping slack tide. I investigated how having multiple people identify and count fish on underwater images could affect the overall results. Using chi square tests in R, I compared my fish identifications and counts to those made by another intern on the same images recorded in August. I found significant differences in the number of species identified and the total individual counts between the two different datasets. I also tested the statistical differences in both Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices between the August, September, and November camera deployments using a Hutcheson t-test. Only one significant difference was found in the Shannon index comparisons, and none were found between the Pielou evenness comparisons. These findings show that if multiple identifiers are used to process underwater images, quality control checks must be made to reduce the potential for error. This also points toward the possibility to leverage more advanced image analysis processes, such as automated image analysis software. The findings from this study also show that the dynamics of marine fish communities can vary over a few months; however, further analysis is needed to determine the extent of the seasonal changes in Sequim Bay.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Standardization of a Volumetric Displacement Measurement for Two-Body Abrasion Scratch Test Data Analysis

A limitation has been identified in the existing test standards used for making controlled, two-body abrasion scratch measurements based solely on the width of the resultant score on the surface of the material. A new, more robust method is proposed for analyzing a surface scratch that takes into account the full three-dimensional profile of the displaced material. To accomplish this, a set of four volume- displacement metrics was systematically defined by normalizing the overall surface profile to denote statistically the area of relevance, termed the Zone of Interaction. From this baseline, depth of the trough and height of the plowed material are factored into the overall deformation assessment. Proof-of-concept data were collected and analyzed to demonstrate the performance of this proposed methodology. This technique takes advantage of advanced imaging capabilities that allow resolution of the scratched surface to be quantified in greater detail than was previously achievable. When reviewing existing data analysis techniques for conducting two-body abrasive scratch tests, it was found that the ASTM International Standard G 171 specified a generic metric based only on visually determined scratch width as a way to compare abraded materials. A limitation to this method was identified in that the scratch width is based on optical surface measurements, manually defined by approximating the boundaries, but does not consider the three-dimensional volume of material that was displaced. With large, potentially irregular deformations occurring on softer materials, it becomes unclear where to systematically determine the scratch width. Specifically, surface scratches on different samples may look the same from a top view, resulting in an identical scratch width measurement, but may vary in actual penetration depth and/or plowing deformation. Therefore, two different scratch profiles would be measured as having identical abrasion properties, although they differ significantly.

Street, K. W. Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2025

An In Situ , Automated High-Explosives Aging Method Utilizing Two-Dimensional Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry

Understanding chemical changes that occur in high explosives as they age is of great importance to the safe employment and storage of these compounds. Traditional methods of aging high explosives even under accelerated aging conditions are time intensive with durations on the order of months to years. The nature of traditional aging analyses reduces each sample to a snapshot data point often separated widely in time, requiring many assumptions as to how the degradation products develop. Further complicating matters, several analytical techniques are typically employed for each sample analysis in order to ascertain an entire picture of the decomposition pathways. To address these shortcomings with existing methods, a new method of accelerated aging of high explosives utilizing comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry (GC × GC-HRMS) was developed using 2,4,6,8,10,12-hexanitro-2,4,6,8,10,12-hexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20) as a model compound for method development. This in situ automated method reduces the time scale of aging to a matter of hours using the inlet of the GC × GC as the aging vessel. GC × GC in combination with HRMS allowed for the collection of both evolved gases and other decomposition products produced during the entire aging process in real time with HRMS providing far greater certainty in identification of explosives aging products. Additionally, this method allowed for a higher throughput of samples with greatly simplified sample preparation. Chemometric analysis of the GC × GC-HRMS data set via the alteration analysis (ALA) enabled discovery of statistically significant chemical changes providing insight into the variation of decomposition pathways with varying aging temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to avoid multiple scattering in strongly scattering SANS and USANS samples

Small Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) and Ultra Small Angle Neutron Scattering (USANS) are the only available experimental techniques to provide seamless non-destructive measurements of the geometry of the accessible and inaccessible pore structure of rocks from sub-nanopore size to the scale of macropores. They have therefore become the measurement of choice for tight reservoir rocks such as organic rich shales. A simplifying assumption in the analysis is, however, that during the path of neutrons through the sample each neutron is only scattered once. Shales are samples with a high scattering power and Multiple Scattering (MS) may occur which requires special modelling for deconvolution of the results. The approach to avoid MS is to simply reduce the sample thickness to <0.15–0.5 mm. Here, in this work, we present a systematic method on wavelength selection and preparation of samples to optimise extraction of microstructural data and minimise parasitic errors. Experimentally measured SAS transmission (TSAS) values are used as a practical criterion for estimation of the extent of MS. Generous beamtime allocations allowed robust testing revealing that sample thicknesses can be twice as thick as predicted using the standard protocol. Analysing thicker samples is particularly beneficial for statistically relevant characterisation of heterogeneous samples making the new protocol the method of choice for such samples.

(U)SANS↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the dark matter haloes of optical and IR-selected AGNs in the local universe

ABSTRACT We use the technique of total satellite luminosity, Lsat, to probe the dark matter haloes around active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the SDSS Main Galaxy Sample. Our results focus on galaxies and AGNs that are the central galaxy of their halo. Our two AGN samples are constructed from optical emission-line diagnostics and from Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) infrared colours. Both optically selected and WISE-selected AGN have Lsat values twice as high as non-active galaxy samples when controlling for stellar mass and mean stellar age. This implies that the haloes are twice as massive, but we cannot rule out that the increase in Lsat is due to these AGNs residing in younger haloes at the same mass. When only controlling for host galaxy stellar mass, WISE-selected AGNs also have higher Lsat values than optical AGNs at the factor of two level, consistent with previous results comparing the clustering of obscured and unobscured AGNs. However, controlling for stellar age in the two populations of host galaxies removes half of this difference, attenuating the statistical significance of the difference. We perform permutation tests to quantify the difference in the halo populations of each sample. The difference in star formation properties does not fully explain the difference in the two AGN populations, however. Although AGN luminosity correlates with mean stellar age, the difference in stellar age between the WISE and optical samples cannot be fully explained by differences in their AGN luminosity distributions.

Alpaslan, Mehmet (ORCID:0000000303211033)↗

NASA NTRS2002

Transit Detection with a Distributed Network of Telescopes

The discovery since 1995 of more than 80 planets around nearby solar-like stars and the photometric detection of a transit of the planet orbiting HD 209458 (producing a more than 1% drop in brightness that lasts 3 hours) has heralded a new era in astronomy. It has now been demonstrated that small telescopes equipped with sensitive and stable electronic detectors can produce fundamental scientific discoveries regarding the frequency and nature of planets outside the solar system. The modest equipment requirements for the measurement of extrasolar planetary transits are achieved by commercial small aperture telescopes and CCD imagers common among amateur astronomers. With equipment already in hand and armed with target lists, observing techniques and software procedures developed b NASA's Ames Research Center and the University of California at Santa Cruz, non-professional astronomers can contribute significantly to the study of planets around others stars. Statistical analyses of the population of parent stars of the known extrasolar planets indicate that approximately one in ten metal-rich stars should harbor a short-period planet. Given the ten percent chance that a given short-period planet displays transits, we therefore expect that approximately 1% of the most metal rich stars will have a planetary companion detectable by this project. A catalog of 206 highly metal rich nearby F, G and K stars has been compiled, and this catalog will provide a rich source of targets. In addition, main sequence F, G, K and M stars identified to have "transit-like" features in the Hipparcos satellite photometry archive will also be monitored. A commercially available "amateur grade" telescope/CCD/software system acquired late during the 2001 "transit season" for HID 209458 has achieved 0.47% RMS precision for 13 minute time sampling from a suburban backyard under less than ideal observing conditions and a realistic range of airmass values.

Castellano, T.↗

DOE OSTI2021

The persistence of large scale structures. Part I. Primordial non-Gaussianity

Abstract We develop an analysis pipeline for characterizing the topology of large scale structure and extracting cosmological constraints based on persistent homology . Persistent homology is a technique from topological data analysis that quantifies the multiscale topology of a data set, in our context unifying the contributions of clusters, filament loops, and cosmic voids to cosmological constraints. We describe how this method captures the imprint of primordial local non-Gaussianity on the late-time distribution of dark matter halos, using a set of N-body simulations as a proxy for real data analysis. For our best single statistic, running the pipeline on several cubic volumes of size 40 (Gpc/h) 3 , we detect f NL loc =10 at 97.5% confidence on ~ 85% of the volumes. Additionally wetest our ability to resolve degeneracies betweenthe topological signature of f NL loc and variation of σ 8 and argue that correctly identifying nonzero f NL loc in this case is possible via an optimal template method. Our method relies on information living at $\mathcal{O}$(10) Mpc/h, a complementary scale with respect to commonly used methods such as the scale-dependent bias in the halo/galaxy power spectrum. Therefore, while still requiring a large volume, our method does not require sampling long-wavelength modes to constrain primordial non-Gaussianity. Moreover, our statistics are interpretable: we are able to reproduce previous results in certain limits and we make new predictions for unexplored observables, such as filament loops formed by dark matter halos in a simulation box.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Error and Resolution in Quantitative Stable Isotope Probing: Implications for Experimental Design

Quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP) estimates isotope tracer incorporation into DNA of individual microbes and can link microbial biodiversity and biogeochemistry in complex communities. As with any quantitative estimation technique, qSIP involves measurement error, and a fuller understanding of error, precision, and statistical power benefits qSIP experimental design and data interpretation. We used several qSIP data sets—from soil and seawater microbiomes—to evaluate how variance in isotope incorporation estimates depends on organism abundance and resolution of the density fractionation scheme. We assessed statistical power for replicated qSIP studies, plus sensitivity and specificity for unreplicated designs. As a taxon’s abundance increases, the variance of its weighted mean density declines. Nine fractions appear to be a reasonable trade-off between cost and precision for most qSIP applications. Increasing the number of density fractions beyond that reduces variance, although the magnitude of this benefit declines with additional fractions. Our analysis suggests that, if a taxon has an isotope enrichment of 10 atom% excess, there is a 60% chance that this will be detected as significantly different from zero (with alpha 0.1). With five replicates, isotope enrichment of 5 atom% could be detected with power (0.6) and alpha (0.1). Finally, we illustrate the importance of internal standards, which can help to calibrate per sample conversions of %GC to mean weighted density. These results should benefit researchers designing future SIP experiments and provide a useful reference for metagenomic SIP applications where both financial and computational limitations constrain experimental scope.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2003

Vector-Ordering Filter Procedure for Data Reduction

The vector-ordering filter (VOF) technique involves a procedure for sampling a large population of data vectors to select a subset of data vectors that fully characterize the state space of the large population. The VOF technique enables a large reduction of the volume of data that must be handled in the automated monitoring system and method discussed in the two immediately preceding articles. In so doing, the VOF technique enables the development of data-driven mathematical models of a monitored asset from sets of data that would otherwise exceed the memory capacities of conventional engineering computers. Data-driven mathematical models have been shown to offer high fidelity for purposes of control and monitoring of assets. In practice, a collection of asset-operating observations is acquired with the intention that the collection contain observations characteristic of the full dynamic range of operation of the asset. Often, such a collection contains an extremely large number of observations, many of which are redundant. The VOF technique fills the need for a means to extract, from the original collection of observational data, a reduced data matrix that excludes redundant data while maintaining the full statistical character and dynamic range of the original data. The reduced data matrix can then be used as the input data for development of a mathematical model of the monitored asset, or as training data for a neural-network substitute for an explicit mathematical model of the asset. Alternatively, the reduced data matrix can, itself, be used directly as a mathematical model of the monitored asset, as is commonly done in multivariate state-estimation techniques. The original data are collected from the asset over a range of operating states and are put in matrix form. Each column vector in the original data matrix represents the signal values acquired at a particular operational state of the asset. Thus, the number of columns of the original data matrix equals the number of observed states and the number of rows in this matrix equals the number of signals acquired at each observation. In the VOF technique, one extracts the reduced data matrix from the original data matrix through the selection of a representative subset of the column (state) vectors.

Bickford, Randall L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advances in constraining intrinsic alignment models with hydrodynamic simulations

We use galaxies from the illustristng, massiveblack-ii, and illustris-1 hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the behaviour of large scale galaxy intrinsic alignments. Our analysis spans four redshift slices over the approximate range of contemporary lensing surveys z = 0–1. We construct comparable weighted samples from the three simulations, which we then analyse using an alignment model that includes both linear and quadratic alignment contributions. Our data vector includes galaxy–galaxy, galaxy–shape, and shape–shape projected correlations, with the joint covariance matrix estimated analytically. In all of the simulations, we report non-zero IAs at the level of several σ. For a fixed lower mass threshold, we find a relatively strong redshift dependence in all three simulations, with the linear IA amplitude increasing by a factor of ~2 between redshifts z = 0 and z = 1. We report no significant evidence for non-zero values of the tidal torquing amplitude, A 2 , in TNG, above statistical uncertainties, although MBII favours a moderately negative A 2 ~ –2. Examining the properties of the TATT model as a function of colour, luminosity and galaxy type (satellite or central), our findings are consistent with the most recent measurements on real data. We also outline a novel method for constraining the TATT model parameters directly from the pixelized tidal field, alongside a proof-of-concept exercise using TNG. This technique is shown to be promising, although comparison with previous results obtained via other methods is non-trivial.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1999

The NASA/MSFC Global Reference Atmospheric Model: 1999 Version (GRAM-99)

The latest version of Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-99) is presented and discussed. GRAM-99 uses either (binary) Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) or (ASCII) Global Gridded Upper Air Statistics (GGUAS) CD-ROM data sets, for 0-27 km altitudes. As with earlier versions, GRAM-99 provides complete geographical and altitude coverage for each month of the year. GRAM-99 uses a specially-developed data set, based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) data, for 20-120 km altitudes, and NASA's 1999 version Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET-99) model for heights above 90 km. Fairing techniques assure smooth transition in overlap height ranges (20-27 km and 90-120 km). GRAM-99 includes water vapor and 11 other atmospheric constituents (O3, N2O, CO, CH4, CO2, N2, O2, O, A, He and H). A variable-scale perturbation model provides both large-scale (wave) and small-scale (stochastic) deviations from mean values for thermodynamic variables and horizontal and vertical wind components. The small-scale perturbation model includes improvements in representing intermittency ("patchiness"). A major new feature is an option to substitute Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) data for conventional GRAM climatology when a trajectory passes sufficiently near any RRA site. A complete user's guide for running the program, plus sample input and output, is provided. An example is provided for how to incorporate GRAM-99 as subroutines in other programs (e.g., trajectory codes).

Justus, C. G.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Ultrasonic wave velocity measurement in small polymeric and cortical bone specimens

A system was refined for the determination of the bulk ultrasonic wave propagation velocity in small cortical bone specimens. Longitudinal and shear wave propagations were measured using ceramic, piezoelectric 20 and 5 MHz transducers, respectively. Results of the pulse transmission technique were refined via the measurement of the system delay time. The precision and accuracy of the system were quantified using small specimens of polyoxymethylene, polystyrene-butadiene, and high-density polyethylene. These polymeric materials had known acoustic properties, similarity of propagation velocities to cortical bone, and minimal sample inhomogeneity. Dependence of longitudinal and transverse specimen dimensions upon propagation times was quantified. To confirm the consistency of longitudinal wave propagation in small cortical bone specimens (< 1.0 mm), cut-down specimens were prepared from a normal rat femur. Finally, cortical samples were prepared from each of ten normal rat femora, and Young's moduli (Eii), shear moduli (Gij), and Poisson ratios (Vij) were measured. For all specimens (bone, polyoxymethylene, polystyrene-butadiene, and high-density polyethylene), strong linear correlations (R2 > 0.997) were maintained between propagation time and distance throughout the size ranges down to less than 0.4 mm. Results for polyoxymethylene, polystyrene-butadiene, and high-density polyethylene were accurate to within 5 percent of reported literature values. Measurement repeatability (precision) improved with an increase in the wave transmission distance (propagating dimension). No statistically significant effect due to the transverse dimension was detected.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2021

Noise reduction in X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy with convolutional neural networks encoder–decoder models

Abstract Like other experimental techniques, X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy is subject to various kinds of noise. Random and correlated fluctuations and heterogeneities can be present in a two-time correlation function and obscure the information about the intrinsic dynamics of a sample. Simultaneously addressing the disparate origins of noise in the experimental data is challenging. We propose a computational approach for improving the signal-to-noise ratio in two-time correlation functions that is based on convolutional neural network encoder–decoder (CNN-ED) models. Such models extract features from an image via convolutional layers, project them to a low dimensional space and then reconstruct a clean image from this reduced representation via transposed convolutional layers. Not only are ED models a general tool for random noise removal, but their application to low signal-to-noise data can enhance the data’s quantitative usage since they are able to learn the functional form of the signal. We demonstrate that the CNN-ED models trained on real-world experimental data help to effectively extract equilibrium dynamics’ parameters from two-time correlation functions, containing statistical noise and dynamic heterogeneities. Strategies for optimizing the models’ performance and their applicability limits are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2022

GNSS-RO Deep Refraction Signals from Moist Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL)

The marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) has a profound impact on sensible heat and moisture exchanges between the surface and the free troposphere. The goal of this study is to develop an alternative technique for retrieving MABL-specific humidity (q) using GNSS-RO data in deep-refracted signals. The GNSS-RO signal amplitude (i.e., signal-to-noise ratio or SNR) at the deep straight-line height (H(SL)) was been found to be strongly impacted by water vapor within the MABL. This study presents a statistical analysis to empirically relate the normalized SNR (S(RO)) at deep HSL to the MABL q at 950 hPa (~400 m). When compared to the ERA5 reanalysis data, a good linear q–S(RO) relationship is found with the deep H(SL) S(RO) data, but careful treatments of receiver noise, SNR normalization, and receiver orbital altitude are required. We attribute the good q–S(RO) correlation to the strong refraction from a uniform, horizontally stratiform and dynamically quiet MABL water vapor layer. Ducting and diffraction/interference by this layer help to enhance the S(RO) amplitude at deep H(SL). Potential MABL water vapor retrieval can be further developed to take advantage of a higher number of S(RO) measurements in the MABL compared to the Level-2 products. A better sampled diurnal variation of the MABL q is demonstrated with the S(RO) data over the Southeast Pacific (SEP) and the Northeast Pacific (NEP) regions, which appear to be consistent with the low cloud amount variations reported in previous studies.

diurnal variation↗

NASA NTRS1991

On the estimation of climatological Z-R relationships

A statistical framework for climatological Z-R parameter estimation is developed and simulation experiments are conducted to examine sampling properties of the estimators. Both parametric and nonparametric models are considered. For parametric models, it is shown that Z-R parameters can be estimated by maximum likelihood, a procedure with optimal large sample properties. A general nonparametric framework for climatological Z-R estimation is also developed. Nonparametric procedures are attractive because of their flexibility in dealing with certain types of measurement errors common to radar data. Simulation experiments show that even under favorable assumptions on error characteristics of radar and raingages, large datasets are required to obtain accurate Z-R parameter estimates. Another important conclusion is that estimation results are generally quite sensitive to radar and raingage measurement thresholds. For fixed sample size, the simulation results can be used to provide quantitative assessments of the accuracy of Z-R model parameter estimates. These results are particularly useful for error analysis of precipitation products that are derived using climatological Z-R relations. One example is the large-area rainfall estimates derived using the height-area rainfall threshold (HART) technique.

Krajewski, Witold F.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Strong gravitational lensing statistics as a test of cosmogonic scenarios

Gravitational lensing statistics can provide a direct and powerful test of cosmic structure formation theories. Since lensing tests, directly, the magnitude of the nonlinear mass density fluctuations on lines of sight to distant objects, no issues of 'bias' (of mass fluctuations with respect to galaxy density fluctuations) exist here, although lensing observations provide their own ambiguities of interpretation. We develop numerical techniques for generating model density distributions with the very large spatial dynamic range required by lensing considerations and for identifying regions of the simulations capable of multiple image lensing in a conservative and computationally efficient way that should be accurate for splittings significantly larger than 3 seconds. Applying these techniques to existing standard Cold dark matter (CDM) (Omega = 1) and Primeval Baryon Isocurvature (PBI) (Omega = 0.2) simulations (normalized to the Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite (COBE) amplitude), we find that the CDM model predicts large splitting (greater than 8 seconds) lensing events roughly an order-of-magnitude more frequently than the PBI model. Under the reasonable but idealized assumption that lensing structrues can be modeled as singular isothermal spheres (SIS), the predictions can be directly compared to observations of lensing events in quasar samples. Several large splitting (Delta Theta is greater than 8 seconds) cases are predicted in the standard CDM model (the exact number being dependent on the treatment of amplification bias), whereas none is observed. In a formal sense, the comparison excludes the CDM model at high confidence (essentially for the same reason that CDM predicts excessive small-scale cosmic velocity dispersions.) A very rough assessment of low-density but flat CDM model (Omega = 0.3, Lambda/3H(sup 2 sub 0) = 0.7) indicates a far lower and probably acceptable level of lensing. The PBI model is consistent with, but not strongly tested by, the available lensing data, and other open models would presumably do as well as PBI. These preliminary conclusions and the assumptions on which they are based can be tested and the analysis can be applied to other cosmogonic models by straightforward extension of the work presented here.

Cen, Renyue↗