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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed Applications and Science – Past, Present, & Future

This is a presentation to be made at the University of Tokyo. The Idaho National Laboratory is creating the next-generation reliability- and risk-assessment methods and tools that support risk-informed decision-making by combining physics-based models with probabilistic quantification approaches. Integrating these two worlds of physics and probability using a simulation framework leads us to predictions based upon an approach called “computational risk assessment” which will serve as the technical basis for the future of reliability and risk approaches. The driving factors for this new approach includes: temporal (timing issues), spatial (location issues), mechanistic (physics issues), and topological (complexity issues). By combining phenomenology directly with stochastic quantification, we are able to perform advanced uncertainty analysis directly on both parameters and models. In addition, new tools allow for the creation of reduced order models that mimic high-fidelity engineering models while still permitting the realization of thousands of simulation iterations in short run-times on current workstation-class computers. While these advanced methods and tools can provide increased realism in our engineering safety and risk approaches, their greater benefit is to provide a risk-informed engineering framework for design and operation. This talk will briefly review the history of risk assessment and risk-informed applications, describe some of the current research and development found at the Idaho National Laboratory, and discuss potential future applications and approaches for advanced methods and tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of Topography in Controlling Evapotranspiration Age

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) age is a key metric of water sustainability but a major unknown partly due to the extreme difficulty in modeling it. Groundwater is found to be important in ET age variations in small‐scale studies, yet our understanding is insufficient because groundwater systems are nested across scales. Here, we conducted GPU‐accelerated particle tracking with integrated hydrologic modeling to quantify the variations in ET age at a regional scale of ∼0.4 M km 2 . Simulation results reveal topography‐driven flow paths shaping the spatial and temporal patterns of ET age variations. On ridges, where root zone decoupling with deep subsurface storage, ET age is generally young, with seasonal variations dominated by meteorological conditions. In the valley bottom, ET age is generally old, with significant subseasonal variations caused by the convergence of subsurface flow paths. On hillslopes with water table depths ranging from 1 to 10 m, ET age shows strong seasonal variations caused by the connections with lateral groundwater regulated by ET demand. Our modeling approach provides insights into the basic linkages between ET age and topography at large scale. Our work highlights the perspective of multiscale studies of ET age, suggesting new field experiments to test these process connections and to determine if such linkages warrant inclusion in Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Local Lagrangian reduced-order modeling for the Rayleigh-Taylor instability by solution manifold decomposition

The Rayleigh-Taylor instability is a classical hydrodynamic instability of great interest in various disciplines of science and engineering, including astrophysics, atmospheric sciences and climate, geophysics, and fusion energy. Analytical methods cannot be applied to explain the long-time behavior of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability, and therefore, numerical simulation of the full problem is required. However, in order to capture the growth of amplitude of perturbations accurately, both the spatial and temporal discretizations need to be extremely fine for traditional numerical methods, and long-time simulation may become prohibitively expensive. In this paper, we propose efficient reduced order model techniques to accelerate the simulation of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in compressible gas dynamics. Here, we introduce a general framework for decomposing the solution manifold to construct the temporal domain partition and temporally-local reduced order model construction with varying Atwood number. We propose two practical approaches in this framework, namely decomposition by physical time and by penetration distance. Numerical results are presented to examine the performance of the proposed approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6

This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM), southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the first-order mode interactions are represented in Earth system model (ESM) output from the CMIP6 archive. Several skill metrics are used as part of a differential credibility assessment (DCA) of both spatial and temporal characteristics of the modes across ESMs, ESM families, and specific ESM realizations relative to ERA5. The spatial patterns and probability distributions are generally well represented but skill scores that measure the degree to which the frequencies of maximum variance are captured are consistently lower for most ESMs and climate modes. Substantial variability in skill scores manifests across realizations from individual ESMs for the PNA and oceanic modes. Further, the ESMs consistently overestimate the strength of the NAM–PNA first-order interaction and underestimate the NAM–AMO connection. Furthermore, these results suggest that the choice of ESM and ESM realizations will continue to play a critical role in determining climate projections at the global and regional scale at least in the near term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting?

In theory, the same sea-ice models could be used for both research and operations, but in practice, differences in scientific and software requirements and computational and human resources complicate the matter. Although sea-ice modeling tools developed for climate studies and other research applications produce output of interest to operational forecast users, such as ice motion, convergence, and internal ice pressure, the relevant spatial and temporal scales may not be sufficiently resolved. For instance, sea-ice research codes are typically run with horizontal resolution of more than 3 km, while mariners need information on scales less than 300 m. Certain sea-ice processes and coupled feedbacks that are critical to simulating the Earth system may not be relevant on these scales; and therefore, the most important model upgrades for improving sea-ice predictions might be made in the atmosphere and ocean components of coupled models or in their coupling mechanisms, rather than in the sea-ice model itself. This paper discusses some of the challenges in applying sea-ice modeling tools developed for research purposes for operational forecasting on short time scales, and highlights promising new directions in sea-ice modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning electric vehicle driver range anxiety with an initial state of charge-oriented gradient boosting approach

This manuscript focuses on the modeling of electric vehicle (EV) driver’s range anxiety, a fear that a vehicle does not have sufficient range, or state of charge (SOC) of the battery pack, to reach its destination and would strand its occupants. Despite numerous research studies on the modeling of charging behaviors, modeling efforts to understand at what battery percentages do EV drivers charge their vehicles, and what are the associated contributing factors, are rather limited. To this end, an ensemble learning model based on gradient boosting is developed. The model sequentially fits new predictors to new residuals of the previous prediction and, then, minimizes the loss when adding the latest prediction. A total of 18 features are defined and extracted from the multisource data, which cover information on driver, vehicles, stations, traffic conditions, as well as spatial-temporal context information of the charging events. The analyzed dataset includes 4.5-year’s charging event log data from 3,096 users and 468 public charging stations in Kansas City Missouri, and the macroscopic travel demand model maintained by the metropolitan planning organization. Here, the result shows the proposed model achieved a satisfactory result with a R square value of 0.54 and root mean square error of 0.14, both better than multiple linear regression model and random forest model. To reduce range anxiety, it is suggested that the priorities of deploying new charging facilities should be given to the areas with higher daily traffic prediction, with more conservative EV users or that are further from residential areas.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

STFM: Accurate Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Weather Forecasting

Meteorological prediction is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, navigation, daily life, disaster prevention, and scientific research. However, traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are constrained by their high computational resource requirements, while the accuracy of deep learning models remains suboptimal. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel deep learning-based model, the Spatiotemporal Fusion Model (STFM), designed to enhance the accuracy of meteorological predictions. Our model leverages Fifth-Generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data and introduces two key components: a spatiotemporal encoder module and a spatiotemporal fusion module. The spatiotemporal encoder integrates the strengths of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), effectively capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal fusion module employs a dual attention mechanism, decomposing spatial attention into global static attention and channel dynamic attention. This approach ensures comprehensive extraction of spatial features from meteorological data. The combination of these modules significantly improves prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that STFM excels in extracting spatiotemporal features from reanalysis data, yielding predictions that closely align with observed values. In comparative studies, STFM outperformed other models, achieving a 7% improvement in ground and high-altitude temperature predictions, a 5% enhancement in the prediction of the u/v components of 10 m wind speed, and an increase in the accuracy of potential height and relative humidity predictions by 3% and 1%, respectively. This enhanced performance highlights STFM’s potential to advance the accuracy and reliability of meteorological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Self-consistent integrated modeling of combined hybrid discharge-laser produced plasma devices for extreme ultraviolet metrology

Discharge- and laser-produced plasma (DLPP) devices are being used as light sources for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) generation. A key challenge for both, DPP and LPP, is achieving sufficient brightness to support the throughput requirements of nanometrology tools. To simulate the environment of a hybrid DLPP device and optimize the EUV output, we have developed an integrated HEIGHTS-DLPP computer simulation package. The package integrates simulation of two evolving plasmas (DPP and LPP) and includes modeling of a set of integrated self-consistent processes: external power source and plasma energy balance, plasma resistive magnetohydrodynamics, plasma heat conduction, detailed radiation transport (RT), and laser absorption and refraction. We simulated and optimized DLPP devices using Xe gas as a target material. We synchronized the external circuit parameters, chamber gas parameters, and laser beam temporal and spatial profiles to achieve maximum EUV output. The full 3D Monte Carlo scheme was integrated for detailed RT and EUV output calculations in Xe using more than 3600 spectral groups. The modeling results are in good agreement with Julich Forschungszentrum experimental data. Theoretical models, developed and integrated into the HEIGHTS package, showed wide capabilities and flexibility. In conclusion, the models and package can be used for optimization of the experimental parameters and settings, investigation of DLPP devices with complex design, analyzing the impact of integrated spatial effects and working timeline arrangement on the final EUV output, and EUV source size, shape, and angular distribution.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online thermal profile prediction for large format additive manufacturing: A hybrid CNN-LSTM based approach

Large format additive manufacturing (LFAM) is an advanced 3D printing technique that efficiently fabricates large-scale components through a layer-by-layer extrusion and deposition process. Accurate surface layer temperature monitoring is essential to prevent manufacturing failures and ensure final product quality. Traditional physics-based offline approaches for simulating thermal behavior are often inefficient and complex, posing challenges on real-time, in-situ monitoring. Here, to address this, we propose a data-driven hybrid CNN-LSTM model to predict sequential thermal images of arbitrary length using real-time infrared thermal imaging. In this approach, a Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is trained offline to capture spatial features, reduce dimensional complexity, and enhance time efficiency, while a stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is applied online to capture temporal information for improved prediction of future thermal behavior in subsequent printing layers. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, SSIM, and PSNR metrics and is benchmarked against stacked LSTM and convolutional LSTM models, demonstrating superior accuracy and applicability. Additionally, to mitigate noise from moving extruders and gantry backgrounds in thermal images, a fine-tuned semantic segmentation model is implemented offline to extract printing geometry, enabling precise temperature tracking along the tool path for further thermal analysis. The frameworks developed in this study significantly advance temperature monitoring, thermal analysis, and in-situ manufacturing control for LFAM, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and practical application.

Geometry extraction↗
DOE OSTI2022

Permeability-controlled migration of induced seismicity to deeper depths near Venus in North Texas

Abstract Migration of seismic events to deeper depths along basement faults over time has been observed in the wastewater injection sites, which can be correlated spatially and temporally to the propagation or retardation of pressure fronts and corresponding poroelastic response to given operation history. The seismicity rate model has been suggested as a physical indicator for the potential of earthquake nucleation along faults by quantifying poroelastic response to multiple well operations. Our field-scale model indicates that migrating patterns of 2015–2018 seismicity observed near Venus, TX are likely attributed to spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stressing rate constrained by the fault permeability. Even after reducing injection volumes since 2015, pore pressure continues to diffuse and steady transfer of elastic energy to the deep fault zone increases stressing rate consistently that can induce more frequent earthquakes at large distance scales. Sensitivity tests with variation in fault permeability show that (1) slow diffusion along a low-permeability fault limits earthquake nucleation near the injection interval or (2) rapid relaxation of pressure buildup within a high-permeability fault, caused by reducing injection volumes, may mitigate the seismic potential promptly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017) measurement campaign

The representations of clouds, aerosols, and cloud–aerosol–radiation impacts remain some of the largest uncertainties in climate change, limiting our ability to accurately reconstruct past climate and predict future climate. The south-east Atlantic is a region where high atmospheric aerosol loadings and semi-permanent stratocumulus clouds are co-located, providing an optimum region for studying the full range of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions and their perturbations of the Earth's radiation budget. While satellite measurements have provided some useful insights into aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions over the region, these observations do not have the spatial and temporal resolution, nor the required level of precision to allow for a process-level assessment. Detailed measurements from high spatial and temporal resolution airborne atmospheric measurements in the region are very sparse, limiting their use in assessing the performance of aerosol modelling in numerical weather prediction and climate models. CLARIFY-2017 was a major consortium programme consisting of five principal UK universities with project partners from the UK Met Office and European- and USA-based universities and research centres involved in the complementary ORACLES, LASIC, and AEROCLO-sA projects. The aims of CLARIFY-2017 were fourfold: (1) to improve the representation and reduce uncertainty in model estimates of the direct, semi-direct, and indirect radiative effect of absorbing biomass burning aerosols; (2) to improve our knowledge and representation of the processes determining stratocumulus cloud microphysical and radiative properties and their transition to cumulus regimes; (3) to challenge, validate, and improve satellite retrievals of cloud and aerosol properties and their radiative impacts; (4) to improve the impacts of aerosols in weather and climate numerical models. This paper describes the modelling and measurement strategies central to the CLARIFY-2017 deployment of the FAAM BAe146 instrumented aircraft campaign, summarizes the flight objectives and flight patterns, and highlights some key results from our initial analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Infrastructure-Based Cooperative Perception at a Traffic Intersection: Overview and Challenges: Preprint

Recent advancement in autonomous driving vehicles and V2X communication has attracted increasing attention towards Intelligent Transportation Systems to build a safe and reliable traffic intersection. However, most of the systems are still at the initial stages and require significant progress to become a reality. This paper presents an overview of NREL Infrastructure Perception and Control (IPC) framework which is an open-source track-data fusion engine which takes input from infrastructure-based perception sensors and cooperatively shared messages from Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) and Connected Vehicle (CVs) and the challenges associated with deploying such cooperative perception framework at a four-way traffic intersection in the city of Colorado Springs, CO, USA. The sensor data is collected by deploying two radars and two LiDAR sensors on the IPC mobile lab and two radars on diagonally opposite traffic poles at the proposed intersection. The sensor output results imply the need for rapid sensor calibration to bring the collective perception to a common coordinate frame, the importance of time synchronization between the sensors in order to capture accurate spatial and temporal alignment of the objects, and the need for a health monitoring system with fail safe closed-loop detection model for real-time deployment.

camera↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupling Remote Sensing With a Process Model for the Simulation of Rangeland Carbon Dynamics

Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long-term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C-cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality-controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass-shrub mixture, and grass-tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R 2 > 0.6, RMSE <390 g C m -2 ) relative to net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) (R 2 > 0.4, RMSE <180 g C m -2 ). Model performance in estimating rangeland C fluxes varied by season and vegetation type. The RCTM captured the spatial variability of SOC stocks with R 2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Model simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks for the flux tower sites during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long-term network-based monitoring of vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind turbine response in waked inflow: A modelling benchmark against full-scale measurements

Predicting the power and loads of wind turbines in waked inflow conditions still presents a major modelling challenge. It requires the accurate modelling of the atmospheric flow conditions, wakes of upstream turbines and the response of the turbine of interest. Rigorous validations of model frameworks against measurements of utility-scale wind turbines in such scenarios remain limited to date. In this study, six models of different fidelity are compared against measurements from the DanAero experiment. The two benchmark cases feature a full-wake and partial-wake scenario, respectively. The simulations are compared against local pressure forces and inflow velocities measured on several blade sections of the downstream turbine, as well as met mast measurements and standard SCADA data. Regardless of the model fidelity, reasonable agreements are found in terms of the wake characteristics and turbine response. For instance, the azimuth variation of the mean aerodynamic forces acting on the blade was captured with a mean relative error of 15-20%. Additionally, while various model-specific deficiencies could be identified, the study highlights the need for further full-scale measurement campaigns with even more extensive instrumentation. Furthermore, it is concluded that validations should not be limited to integrated and/or time-averaged quantities that conceal characteristic spatial or temporal variations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanism-Based Energy Regularization in Computational Modeling of Quasibrittle Fracture

Abstract Quasibrittle materials are featured by a strain-softening constitutive behavior under many loading scenarios, which could eventually lead to localization instability. It has long been known that strain localization would result in spurious mesh sensitivity in finite element (FE) simulations. Previous studies have shown that, for the case of fully localized damage, the mesh sensitivity can be mitigated through energy regularization of the material constitutive law. However, depending on the loading configuration and structural geometry, quasibrittle structures could exhibit a complex damage process, which involves both localized and diffused damage patterns at different stages of loading. This study presents a generalized energy regularization method that considers the spatial and temporal evolution of damage pattern. The method introduces a localization parameter, which describes the local damage pattern. The localization parameter governs the energy regularization of the constitutive model, which captures the transition from diffused to localized damage during the failure process. The method is cast into an isotropic damage model, and is further extended to rate-dependent behavior. The energy regularization scheme is directly incorporated into the kinetics of damage growth. The model is applied to simulate static and dynamic failures of ceramic specimens. It is shown that the present model is able to effectively mitigate the spurious mesh sensitivity in FE simulations of both types of failure. The present analysis demonstrates the essential role of mechanism-based energy regularization of constitutive relation in FE simulations of quasibrittle fracture.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct implicit and explicit energy-conserving particle-in-cell methods for modeling of capacitively coupled plasma devices

Achieving large-scale kinetic modeling is a crucial task for the development and optimization of modern plasma devices. With the trend of decreasing pressure in applications, such as plasma etching, kinetic simulations are necessary to self-consistently capture the particle dynamics. The standard, explicit, electrostatic, momentum-conserving particle-in-cell method suffers from restrictive stability constraints on spatial cell size and temporal time step, requiring resolution of the electron Debye length and electron plasma period, respectively. This results in a very high computational cost, making the technique prohibitive for large volume device modeling. We investigate the direct implicit algorithm and the explicit energy conserving algorithm as alternatives to the standard approach, both of which can reduce computational cost with a minimal (or controllable) impact on results. These algorithms are implemented into the well-tested EDIPIC-2D and LTP-PIC codes, and their performance is evaluated via 2D capacitively coupled plasma discharge simulations. The investigation reveals that both approaches enable the utilization of cell sizes larger than the Debye length, resulting in a reduced runtime, while incurring only minor inaccuracies in plasma parameters. The direct implicit method also allows for time steps larger than the electron plasma period; however, care must be taken to avoid numerical heating or cooling. It is demonstrated that by appropriately adjusting the ratio of cell size to time step, it is possible to mitigate this effect to an acceptable level.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗