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NASA NTRS1985

A sensitivity analysis of the Shuttle Orbiter heating

A procedure for estimating relative sensitivities in Space Shuttle Orbiter entry heating due to variations from nominal flight parameters is presented. Ballpark values are provided for assessing heating changes caused by off-nominal variations in anglle of attack and Reynolds number for laminar flow conditions. Also, a procedure for scaling heating data obtained on subscale models tested at low-enthalpy wind-tunnel test conditions to high-enthalpy flight conditions using simplified flow analysis techniques is presented and verified with flight and wind-tunnel data. In addition, data are presented illustrating that a significant increase in heating was experienced on the fifth Orbiter flight. The increase was possibly caused by changes in the catalytic properties of the Orbiter thermal protection system surface.

Williams, S. D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗

DOE OSTI2012

A Hybrid Sensitivity Analysis Approach for Agent-based Disease Spread Models

Agent-based models (ABM) have been widely deployed in different fields for studying the collective behavior of large numbers of interacting agents. Of particular interest lately is the application of agent-based and hybrid models to epidemiology, specifically Agent-based Disease Spread Models (ABDSM). Validation (one aspect of the means to achieve dependability) of ABDSM simulation models is extremely important. It ensures that the right model has been built and lends confidence to the use of that model to inform critical decisions. In this report, we describe our preliminary efforts in ABDSM validation by using hybrid model fusion technology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF FUEL PHYSICAL PROPERTY EFFECTS ON SPARK IGNITION ENGINE PERFORMANCE

Alternative fuels are of interest to automakers and regulators due to their potential to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from transportation sources. Alternative fuels also have fuel properties which may enable advanced combustion modes with higher engine thermal efficiencies. There has been previous work to identify the relationship between various fuel properties and engine performance, but most of this work has been experiments or simulations where the change in properties was obtained through changing the fuel composition, making isolating the effects of individual fuel properties difficult. In this study, numerical simulations have been used to investigate the effects of individual fuel physical properties such as viscosity or heat of vaporization (HoV) on engine performance. Simulations have been performed of two different engine platforms, the first an optical, single-cylinder research engine and the second a multi-cylinder production engine. Both engines are direct-injection spark-ignition engines with pent-roof heads and are designed for automotive applications. Each engine was run at a different operating condition, one stable and one knock-limited. Different base fuels provided a variety of simulated conditions. Up to six different fuel properties were varied as part of Global Sensitivity Analyses performed for each of the engines with multiple performance targets including thermal efficiency, combustion efficiency and combustion phasing. Results show trends that are largely consistent with previous experimental findings using multiple fuels. The engine thermal efficiency was primarily sensitive to the fuel's HoV, with other fuel physical properties having smaller effects. For optical engine results, the magnitude of the effect was greater in this study than expected based on previous experimental results were many fuel physical and chemical properties were varied simultaneously. However, for the multi-cylinder production engine, the relationship between thermal efficiency and HoV was slightly smaller.

engine simulation↗

DOE OSTI2016

Sensitivity Analysis of Kinetic Rate-Law Parameters Used to Simulate Long-Term Weathering of ILAW Glass. Erratum

This report refers to or contains K g values for glasses LAWA44, LAWB45 and LAWC22 affected by calculations errors as identified by Papathanassiu et al. (2011). The corrected K g values are reported in an erratum included in the revised version of the original report. The revised report can be referenced as follows: Pierce E. M. et al. (2004) Waste Form Release Data Package for the 2005 Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment. PNNL-14805 Rev. 0 Erratum. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Degrees of rate control and AutoDiff-driven direct sensitivity analysis in heterogeneous catalysis

Despite the wide application and benefits of the degree of rate control (DRC) analysis, several details remain argued, particularly about the conservation of DRCs at transient (TR) and steady-state (SS) conditions, especially for complex reaction networks. This work argues that previous proofs about the conservation properties of DRCs have been incomplete, and we provide new mathematical proofs at TR and SS conditions. In addition, we use both analytical (automatic differentiation) and numerical (finite difference) approaches to compute DRCs for the case study of ethane hydrogenolysis (EH) over Pt(111). This work confirms that at both TR and SS conditions, the sum of all DRCs, i.e., sum of the degrees of kinetic (DKRC) and thermodynamic rate control (DTRC), is conserved at zero. At SS conditions, the sum of DKRC is conserved at 1 while the sum of DTRC is conserved at −1. In corroboration of previous works, we show that the DTRC for any adsorbate at SS is equal to the product of the species coverage and a constant. In contrast, at TR conditions, the individual sums of both DTRC and DKRC are not conserved and can be any real number, with potential implications for the novel field of dynamic catalysis. Finally, we show that the conventional finite difference (FD) approach, only useful at SS, is prone to inaccuracy and very sensitive to the value of the differential change applied. The optimal differential value also varies significantly with system and rate definition. Consequently, we describe and illustrate in this work the application of the automatic differentiation (AD) approach for the more accurate determination of DRCs at both TR and SS conditions.

Automatic differentiation↗

DOE OSTI2018

Simulations of Brady's-Type Fault Undergoing CO2 Push-Pull: Pressure-Transient and Sensitivity Analysis

Input and output files used for fault characterization through numerical simulation using iTOUGH2. The synthetic data for the push period are generated by running a forward simulation (input parameters are provided in iTOUGH2 Brady GF6 Input Parameters.txt [InvExt6i.txt]). In general, the permeability of the fault gouge, damage zone, and matrix are assumed to be unknown. The input and output files are for the inversion scenario where only pressure transients are available at the monitoring well located 200 m above the injection well and only the fault gouge permeability is estimated. The input files are named InvExt6i, INPUT.tpl, FOFT.ins, CO2TAB, and the output files are InvExt6i.out, pest.fof, and pest.sav (names below are display names). The table graphic in the data files below summarizes the inversion results, and indicates the fault gouge permeability can be estimated even if imperfect guesses are used for matrix and damage zone permeabilities, and permeability anisotropy is not taken into account.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Adjoint sensitivity analysis of chaotic dynamical systems with non-intrusive least squares shadowing

This paper presents a discrete adjoint version of the recently developed non-intrusive least squares shadowing (NILSS) algorithm, which circumvents the instability that conventional adjoint methods encounter for chaotic systems. The NILSS approach involves solving a smaller minimization problem than other shadowing approaches and can be implemented with only minor modifications to preexisting tangent and adjoint solvers. Adjoint NILSS is demonstrated on a small chaotic ODE, a one-dimensional scalar PDE, and a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of the minimal flow unit, a turbulent channel flow on a small spatial domain. This is the first application of an adjoint shadowing-based algorithm to a three-dimensional turbulent flow. - Highlights: • A discrete adjoint non-intrusive least squares shadowing (NILSS) is presented. • The NILSS approach is closely related to multiple shooting shadowing (MSS). • Adjoint NILSS prevents exponential growth in time of the adjoint field. • Adjoint NILSS is demonstrated on a simulation of wall-bounded turbulent flow.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Sensitivity Analysis of Material Model Parameters to Reproduce Crushing of Composite Tubes

The ability to predict the behavior of composite structures under impact conditions is an important challenge for engineering analysis since it requires modeling beyond the elasticity and into failure initiation and propagation. Crushing of laminate composites is the result of a combination of several and complex failure mechanisms, which are not always possible to reproduce together in a single finite element analysis (FEA). In this paper, models based on lamina-level failure criteria have been used to predict the onset of damage; once failure initiates, the mechanisms of failure propagation require reducing the material properties using several degradation schemes. Among the composite material models available in LS-DYNA, MAT-ENHANCED-COMPOSITE-DAMAGE (MAT-54) has been chosen for modeling the axial crushing of composite tubes with various resistant sections and wall slope, given the reduced experimental input parameters to insert into the card definition. Comparison with experimental data shows that such material model is able to successfully reproduce the crushing behavior, even if the numerical results are strictly correlated with some model parameters which cannot be measured experimentally or are purely mathematical expedients. Therefore, extensive calibration of these parameters by trial-and-error is necessary to achieve successful simulation results. Once done it for a structure made of the same composite material, it is possible to adopt the same card configuration for all the other cases, obtaining good agreement between numerical and experimental results. After, the attempt to model the same geometries using the MAT-LAMINATED-COMPOSITE-FABRIC (MAT-58) card with the same parameter values previously calibrated has been done obtaining results comparable with the experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Foreground and Sensitivity Analysis for Broadband (2D) 21 cm–Lyα and 21 cm–Hα Correlation Experiments Probing the Epoch of Reionization

A detection of the predicted anticorrelation between 21 cm and either Lyα or Hα from the epoch of reionization (EOR) would be a powerful probe of the first galaxies. While 3D intensity maps isolate foregrounds in low-k{sub ∥} modes, infrared surveys cannot yet match the field of view and redshift resolution of radio intensity mapping experiments. In contrast, 2D (i.e., broadband) infrared intensity maps can be measured with current experiments and are limited by foregrounds instead of photon or thermal noise. We show that 2D experiments can measure most of the 3D fluctuation power at k<0.2 Mpc{sup −1} while preserving its correlation properties. However, we show that foregrounds pose two challenges: (1) simple geometric effects produce percent-level correlations between radio and infrared fluxes, even if their luminosities are uncorrelated; and (2) radio and infrared foreground residuals contribute sample variance noise to the cross spectrum. The first challenge demands better foreground masking and subtraction, while the second demands large fields of view to average away uncorrelated radio and infrared power. Using radio observations from the Murchison Widefield Array and near-infrared observations from the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, we set an upper limit on residual foregrounds of the 21 cm–Lyα cross-power spectrum at z∼7 of Δ{sup 2}<181 (kJy sr{sup −1} mK) (95%) at ℓ∼800. We predict levels of foreground correlation and sample variance noise in future experiments, showing that higher-resolution surveys such as LOFAR, SKA-LOW, and the Dark Energy Survey can start to probe models of the 21 cm–Lyα EOR cross spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Sensitivity analysis for large-scale problems

The development of efficient techniques for calculating sensitivity derivatives is studied. The objective is to present a computational procedure for calculating sensitivity derivatives as part of performing structural reanalysis for large-scale problems. The scope is limited to framed type structures. Both linear static analysis and free-vibration eigenvalue problems are considered.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Orbit determination sensitivity analysis for th Europa Clipper Mission tour

This paper will assess the sensitivity of OD delivery and knowledge performance for the current Europa Mission trajectory through parametric variation of a baseline tour navigation strategy.2 Variations of several parameters are run, one at a time, to determine the impact on spacecraft ephemeris uncertainties at OD knowledge, delivery, and encounter reconstruction times. There are two basic categories of sensitivity runs considered: variations of tracking data type and amount, and variations to dynamic parameters. The results of these parameter and data variations are compared against the values necessary to achieve accurate instrument pointing and observation planning.

Young, Brian↗

NASA NTRS1976

Space Shuttle Orbiter entry guidance and control system sensitivity analysis

An approach has been developed to determine the guidance and control system sensitivity to off-nominal aerodynamics for the Space Shuttle Orbiter during entry. This approach, which uses a nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom interactive, digital simulation, has been applied to both the longitudinal and lateral-directional axes for a portion of the orbiter entry. Boundary values for each of the aerodynamic parameters have been identified, the key parameters have been determined, and system modifications that will increase system tolerance to off-nominal aerodynamics have been recommended. The simulations were judged by specified criteria and the performance was evaluated by use of key dependent variables. The analysis is now being expanded to include the latest shuttle guidance and control systems throughout the entry speed range.

Stone, H. W.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Shape sensitivity analysis of flutter response of a laminated wing

A method is presented for calculating the shape sensitivity of a wing aeroelastic response with respect to changes in geometric shape. Yates' modified strip method is used in conjunction with Giles' equivalent plate analysis to predict the flutter speed, frequency, and reduced frequency of the wing. Three methods are used to calculate the sensitivity of the eigenvalue. The first method is purely a finite difference calculation of the eigenvalue derivative directly from the solution of the flutter problem corresponding to the two different values of the shape parameters. The second method uses an analytic expression for the eigenvalue sensitivities of a general complex matrix, where the derivatives of the aerodynamic, mass, and stiffness matrices are computed using a finite difference approximation. The third method also uses an analytic expression for the eigenvalue sensitivities, but the aerodynamic matrix is computed analytically. All three methods are found to be in good agreement with each other. The sensitivities of the eigenvalues were used to predict the flutter speed, frequency, and reduced frequency. These approximations were found to be in good agreement with those obtained using a complete reanalysis.

Bergen, Fred D.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Shape sensitivity analysis of flutter response of a laminated wing

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Analysis of Salt Storage Cavern Mechanical Integrity Test Parameters

This report examines the sensitivity of salt cavern Mechanical Integrity Tests (MIT) to uncertainties in key test parameters. MIT's are used by cavern operators to detect and quantify leak rates in access wells in underground salt storage caverns and involve a suite of measured and assumed parameters that have a direct impact on the sensitivity of the testing to detect actual leaks from the cavern storage system. Determining the sensitivity of the testing to these different parameters provides a basis for understanding the results from, and informing the design criteria for, this type of testing. Without fully understanding the sensitivity of the test to the testing parameters, it is possible that the test results may not accurately reflect the integrity of the cavern system; an actual leak may be missed, or an intact system may be interpreted as leaking. This report reviews the main parameters included in MITs and examines how selected changes in their values can impact test results. The deviations used in the sensitivity analyses were designed to be within the ranges believed to be similar to those which may be encountered during testing. The results show that small, plausible fluctuations in some of the parameters measured values can have a significant impact on the testing results. Of the parameters studied here, the sensitivity analyses showed the order of importance to be (from highest to lowest): nitrogen-oil interface depth measurement, well bore temperature, well head pressure, and finally the internal geometry of the testing interval.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1967

Sensitivity analysis Progress report, 1 Mar. - 1 May 1967

Flow graph technique for calculating sensitivity coefficients for electric networks

FLOW GRAPH↗

NASA NTRS1992

Parallel-vector design sensitivity analysis in structural dynamics

This paper presents a parallel-vector algorithm for sensitivity calculations in linear structural dynamics. The proposed alternative formulation works efficiently with the reduced system of dynamic equations, since it eliminates the need for expensive and complicated based-vector derivatives, which are required in the conventional reduced system formulation. The relationship between the alternative formulation and the conventional reduced system formulation has been established, and it has been proven analytically that the two approaches are identical when all the mode shapes are included. This paper validates the proposed alternative algorithm through numerical experiments, where only a small number of mode shapes are used. In addition, a modified mode acceleration method is presented, thus not only the displacements but also the velocities and accelerations are shown to be improved.

Zhang, Y.↗