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At least 523 records · Page 29
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NASA NTRS1997

The Kepler Mission: A Mission to Determine the Frequency of Inner Planets Neat the Habitable Zone of a Wide Range of Stars

The surprising discovery of giant planets in inner orbits around solar-like stars has brought into question our understanding of the development and evolution of planetary systems, including our solar system. To make further progress, it is critical to detect and obtain data on the frequency and characteristics of Earth-class planets. The Kepler Mission is designed to be a quick, low-cost approach to accomplish that objective. Transits by Earth-class planets produce a fractional change in stellar brightness of 5 x 10(exp -5) to 40 x 10(exp -5) lasting for 4 to 16 hours, From the period and depth of the transits, the orbit and size of the planets can be calculated. The proposed instrument is a one-meter aperture photometer with a 12 deg field-of-view (FOV). To obtain the required precision and to avoid interruptions caused by day-night and seasonal cycles, the photometer will be launched into a heliocentric orbit. It will continuously and simultaneously monitor the flux from 80,000 dwarf stars brighter than 14th magnitude in the Cygnus constellation. The mission tests the hypothesis that the formation of most stars produces Earth-class planets in inner orbits. Based on this assumption and the recent observations that 2% of the stars have giant planets in inner orbits, several types of results are expected from the mission: 1. From transits of Earth-class planets, about 480 planet detections and 60 cases where two or more planets are found in the same system. 2. From transits of giant planets, about 160 detections of inner-orbit planets and 24 detections of outer-orbit planets. 3. From the phase modulation of the reflected light from giant planets, about 1400 planet detections with periods less than a week, albedos for 160 of these giant planets, and densities for seven planets.

Borucki, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Kepler Mission: A Search for Terrestrial Planets

The Kepler Mission is a search for terrestrial planets by monitoring a large ensemble of stars for the periodic transits of planets. The mission consists of a 95-cm aperture photometer with 105 square deg field of view that monitors 100,000 dwarf stars for four years. The mission is unique in its ability to detect Earth-size planets in the habitable zone of other stars in the extended solar neighborhood. An Earth-size transit of a solar-like star causes a change in brightness of about 100 ppm. Laboratory testing has demonstrated that a total system noise level of 20 ppm is readily achievable on the timescale of transits. Earth-like transits have been created and reliably measured in an end-to-end system test that has all known sources of noise including, spacecraft jitter. To detect Earth-size planets, the photometer must be spaceborne; this also eliminates the day-night and seasonal cycle interruptions of ground-based observing. The photometer will stare at a single field of stars for four years, with an option to continue for two more years. This allows for detection of four transits of planets in Mars-like orbits and detection of planets even smaller than Earth especially for short period orbits, since the signal to noise improves as the square root of the number of transits observed. In addition to detection of planets, Kepler data are also useful for understanding the activity cycles and rotation rates of the stars observed. For the 3,000 stars brighter than mv= 11.4 p-mode oscillations are measured. The mission has been selected as one of three candidates for NASA's next Discovery mission.

Koch, D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Comparison of the Age-Spectra from Data Assimilation Models

We use kinematic and diabatic back trajectory calculations, driven by winds from a general circulation model (GCM) and two different data assimilation systems (DAS), to compute the age spectrum at three latitudes in the lower stratosphere. The age-spectra are compared to chemical transport model (CTM) calculations, and the mean ages from all of these studies are compared to observations. The age spectra computed using the GCM winds show a reasonably well-isolated tropics in good agreement with observations; however, the age spectra determined from the DAS differ from the GCM spectra. For the diabatic trajectory calculations, the age spectrum is too broad as a result of too much exchange between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The age spectrum determined using the kinematic trajectory calculation is less broad and lacks an age offset; both of these features are due to excessive vertical dispersion of parcels. The tropical and mid-latitude mean age difference between the diabatically and kinematically determined age-spectra is about one year, the former being older. The CTM calculation of the age spectrum using the DAS winds shows the same dispersive characteristics of the kinematic trajectory calculation. These results suggest that the current DAS products will not give realistic trace gas distributions for long integrations; they also help explain why the mean ages determined in a number of previous DAS driven CTM's are too young compared with observations. Finally, we note trajectory-generated age spectra show significant age anomalies correlated with the seasonal cycles, and these anomalies can be linked to year-to-year variations in the tropical heating rate. These anomalies are suppressed in the CTM spectra suggesting that the CTM transport is too diffusive.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Extreme Weather Events and Their Relationship to Low Frequency Teleconnection Patterns

A new method for identifying the structure and other characteristics of extreme weather events is introduced and applied to both model simulations and observations. The approach is based on a linear regression model that links daily extreme precipitation amounts for a particular point on the globe to precipitation and related quantities at all other points. We present here some initial results of our analysis of extreme precipitation events over the United States, including how they are influenced by ENSO and various large-scale teleconnection patterns such as the PNA. The results are based on simulations made with the NASA/NCAR AGCM (Lin and Rood 1996). The quality of the simulated climate for the NASA/NCAR AGCM forced with observed SSTs is described in Chang et al. (2001). The runs analyzed here consist of three 20-year runs forced with idealized cold, neutral and warm ENSO SST anomalies (superimposed on the mean seasonal cycle of SST). The idealized warm or cold SST anomalies are fixed throughout each 20- year simulation and consist of the first EOF (+/- 3 standard deviations) of monthly SST data. Comparisons are made with the results obtained from a similar analysis that uses daily NOAA precipitation observations (Higgins et al. 1996) over the United States and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1949-1998.

Chang, Yehui↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Comparison of Northern and Southern Hemisphere Cross-tropopause Ozone Flux

A novel method of calculating the downward ozone flux across the midlatitude (30 deg-60 deg) tropopause shows the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ozone flux to be significantly larger (approximately 24%) than that calculated in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the year 2000. This diagnostic method makes it possible to separate dynamical aspects of transport from the seasonal cycle of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere and explain the hemispheric difference in the ozone flux. The SH total horizontal area of exchange is equal to or slightly greater than the area of exchange in the NH throughout an annual cycle. The mean changes in potential vorticity of parcels near the tropopause are also similar or slightly greater in the SH, suggesting that NH and SH downward total mass transport to the troposphere are comparable. These results imply that the greater NH ozone flux is mostly due to the amount of ozone available for exchange rather than net hemispheric dynamical differences near the tropopause level.

Olsen, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Comparison of the Lower Stratospheric Age-Spectra Derived from a General Circulation Model and Two Data Assimilation Systems

We use kinematic and diabatic back trajectory calculations, driven by winds from a general circulation model (GCM) and two different data assimilation systems (DAS), to compute the age spectrum at three latitudes in the lower stratosphere. The age-spectra are compared to chemical transport model (CTM) calculations, and the mean ages from all of these studies are compared to observations. The age spectra computed using the GCM winds show a reasonably isolated tropics in good agreement with observations; however, the age spectra determined from the DAS differ from the GCM spectra. For the DAS diabatic trajectory calculations there is too much exchange between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The age spectrum is thus too broad and the tropical mean age is too old as a result of mixing older mid latitude air with tropical air. Likewise the mid latitude mean age is too young due to the in mixing of tropical air. The DAS kinematic trajectory calculations show excessive vertical dispersion of parcels in addition to excessive exchange between the tropics and mid latitudes. Because air is moved rapidly to the troposphere from the vertical dispersion, the age spectrum is shifted toward the young side. The excessive vertical and meridional dispersion compensate in the kinematic case giving a reasonable tropical mean age. The CTM calculation of the age spectrum using the DAS winds shows the same vertical and meridional dispersive characteristics of the kinematic trajectory calculation. These results suggest that the current DAS products will not give realistic trace gas distributions for long integrations; they also help explain why the extra tropical mean ages determined in a number of previous DAS driven CTM s are too young compared with observations. Finally, we note trajectory-generated age spectra . show significant age anomalies correlated with the seasonal cycles. These anomalies can be linked to year-to-year variations in the tropical heating rate. The anomalies are suppressed in the CTM spectra suggesting that the CTM transport scheme is too diffusive.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Tropical Warm Pool Surface Heat Budgets and Temperature: Contrasts Between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina

Seasonal and interannual variations of the net surface heating F(sub NET) and sea surface temperature tendency (T(sub s)/dt) in the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied. The surface heat fluxes are derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements for the period October 1997-September 2000. It is found that the magnitude of solar heating is lager than that of evaporative cooling, but the spatial variation of the latter is significantly large than the former. As a result, the spatial variations of seasonal and interannual variability of F(sub NET), follow closely that of evaporative cooling. Seasonal variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt are significantly correlated, except for the equatorial western Pacific. The high correlation is primarily attributable to high correlation between seasonal cycles of solar heating and T(sub s)/dt. The change of F(sub NET) between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina is significantly larger in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean than tropical western Pacific. For the former region, the reduced evaporative cooling arising from weakened winds during the El Nino is generally associated with enhanced solar heating due to decreased cloudiness, and thus increases the interannual variability of F(sub NET). For the latter region, the reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds is generally associated with but exceeds the reduced solar heating arising from increased cloudiness, and vise versa. Thus the interannual variability of F(sub NET) is reduced due to this offsetting effect. Interannual variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt have very low correlation. This is most likely related to interannual variability of ocean dynamics, which includes the variations of solar radiation penetrating through oceanic mixed layer, upwelling of cold thermocline water, Indonesian throughflow for transporting heat from the Pacific to Indian Ocean, and interhemispheric transport in the Indian Ocean.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Application of Hilbert-Huang Transforms to Meteorological Datasets

Recently a new spectral technique as been developed for the analysis of aperiodic and nonlinear signals - the Hilbert-Huang transform. This paper shows how these transforms can be used to discover synoptic and climatic features: For sea level data, the transforms capture the oceanic tides as well as large, aperiodic river outflows. In the case of solar radiation, we observe variations in the diurnal and seasonal cycles. Finally, from barographic data, the Hilbert-Huang transform reveals the passage of extratropical cyclones, fronts, and troughs. Thus, this technique can flag significant weather events such its a flood or the passage of a squall line.

Duffy, Dean G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Status of Middle Atmosphere-Climate Models: Results SPARC-GRIPS

The middle atmosphere is an important component of the climate system, primarily because of the radiative forcing of ozone. Middle atmospheric ozone can change, over long times, because of changes in the abundance of anthropogenic pollutants which catalytically destroy it, and because of the temperature sensitivity of kinetic reaction rates. There is thus a complex interaction between ozone, involving chemical and climatic mechanisms. One question of interest is how ozone will change over the next decades , as the "greenhouse-gas cooling" of the middle atmosphere increases but the concentrations of chlorine species decreases (because of policy changes). concerns the climate biases in current middle atmosphere-climate models, especially their ability to simulate the correct seasonal cycle at high latitudes, and the existence of temperature biases in the global mean. A major obstacle when addressing this question This paper will present a summary of recent results from the "GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC" (GRIPS) initiative. A set of middle atmosphere-climate models has been compared, identifying common biases. Mechanisms for these biases are being studied in some detail, including off-line assessments of the radiation transfer codes and coordinated studies of the impacts of gravity wave drag due to sub-grid-scale processes. ensemble of models will be presented, along with numerical experiments undertaken with one or more models, designed to investigate the mechanisms at work in the atmosphere. The discussion will focus on dynamical and radiative mechanisms in the current climate, but implications for coupled ozone chemistry and the future climate will be assessed.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2003

Observations of the Seasonal Polar Icecaps of Mars at 1064 nm

The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) is routinely making radiometric observations of Mars at a wavelength of 1064 nm. Although the altimeter function is no longer operational, the MOLA detector continues to measure the reflectivity of the surface. Observations have been obtained almost continuously since the beginning of the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mapping mission in February 1999, and are providing measurements relevant to understanding the seasonal cycling of CO2 surface frost.

Zuber, Maria T.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Effects of Atmospheric and Surface Dust on the Sublimation Rates of CO2 on Mars

We present an overview of our modeling work dedicated to study the effects of atmospheric dust on the sublimation of CO2 on Mars. The purpose of this study is to better understand the extent to which dust storm activity can be a root cause for interannual variability in the planetary CO2 seasonal cycle, through modifying the springtime regression rates of the south polar cap. We obtain calculations of the sublimation fluxes for various types of polar surfaces and different amounts of atmospheric dust. These calculations have been compared qualitatively with the regression patterns observed by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) in both visible and infrared wavelengths, for two years of very different dust histories (1999, and 2001).

Bonev, B. P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

QBO Generated Inter-annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the mesosphere significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. Applying Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates near the equator a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m / s at 30 Ism. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanism, the relative importance of the linearized advection terms are discussed that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Quasibiennial Oscillation in Tropical Ozone as Revealed by Ozonesonde and Satellite Data

We present an analysis of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical ozone using recent in situ measurements made by ozonesondes, supplemented by satellite profile and column data. The first in situ equatorial ozone profiles reveal the dramatic change in shape of the profile that accompanies the descent of the westerly shear zone. The partial pressure maximum in ozone increases by -25% in 5-6 months as it descends from 17.5 to 24 hPa. The amplitude of the QBO anomaly that extends from 15 to 80 hPa is found to exceed *20%, larger than indicated by earlier analyses of satellite data. The influence of the QBO on equatorial ozone is dominant between 10 and 45 hPa, but the seasonal cycle is more important below 50 hPa. The equatorial ozone anomalies are influenced by El Niiio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the lowest part of the stratosphere. The ozone anomaly in the lower stratosphere at 20"s lags that at the equator by only a few months during the easterlies from 1994 to 1998, contrary to the previous picture of the subtropical and equatorial anomalies being out of phase.

Logan, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Contribution of Dynamic Interannual Variability to Ozone Trends

At middle latitudes the total column ozone and the lower stratospheric ozone mixing ratio exhibit natural variability. Models and statistical analyses of observations such as SAGE ozone profiles and TOMS column measurements show that seasonal cycle, solar cycle, and interannual dynamical variability and dynamical phenomena such as the quasi- biennial oscillation all contribute to ozone variability. These must be accounted for when deriving ozone trends. Systematic or random changes in the atmospheric circulation may also contribute to ozone trends. It is presently unclear how much of the ozone trend derived from observations is due to changes in the chemical composition of the stratosphere and how much is due to changes in the atmospheric circulation. We are attempting to resolve this issue by comparing a twenty-five year simulation of ozone with fixed source gas boundary conditions with an identical simulation with time dependent source gas boundary conditions. Both simulations are driven with output from a general circulation model that produces realistic interannual variability in dynamical forcing. The model trend in ozone due to changes in composition is determined from the difference in these simulations. We compare these trends with trends determined from observations and model output using the same analysis techniques. Initial results emphasize the complications to attribution of observed ozone trends to dynamical and photochemical effects that are due to interrelationships between trends in transport, temperature, and photochemical effects. It may not be possible to describe the ozone trend as a superposition of dynamical and photochemical contributions.

Douglass, Anne↗
NASA NTRS2004

QBO Generated Inter-annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the d i d tide significant inter-annual variations. Applying Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m/s at 30 lan, As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, we discuss (a) the relative importance of the linearized advection terms that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide and (b) the effects momentum deposition from GWs filtered by the QBO.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Bias Reduction in Short Records of Satellite Soil Moisture

Although surface soil moisture data from different sources (satellite retrievals, ground measurements, and land model integrations of observed meteorological forcing data) have been shown to contain consistent and useful information in their seasonal cycle and anomaly signals, they typically exhibit very different mean values and variability. These biases pose a severe obstacle to exploiting the useful information contained in satellite retrievals through data assimilation. A simple method of bias removal is to match the cumulative distribution functions (cdf) of the satellite and model data. However, accurate cdf estimation typically requires a long record of satellite data. We demonstrate here that by wing spatial sampling with a 2 degree moving window we can obtain local statistics based on a one-year satellite record that are a good approximation to those that would be derived from a much longer time series. This result should increase the usefulness of relatively short satellite data records.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Top-of-Atmosphere Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosols over Global Oceans from Merged CERES and MODIS Observations

The direct radiative effect of aerosols (DREA) is defined as the difference between radiative fluxes in the absence and presence of aerosols. In this study, the direct radiative effect of aerosols is estimated for 46 months (March, 2000 to December, 2003) of merged CERES and MODIS Terra global measurements over ocean. This analysis includes the contribution from clear regions in both clear and partly cloudy CERES footprints. MODIS-CERES narrow-to-broadband regressions are developed to convert clear-sky MODIS narrowband radiances to broadband SW radiances, and CERES clear-sky Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) are used to estimate the corresponding TOA radiative fluxes needed to determine the DREA. Clear-sky MODIS pixels are identified using two independent cloud masks: (i) the NOAA-NESDIS algorithm used for inferring aerosol properties from MODIS on the CERES Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) product (NOAA-SSF); and (ii) the standard algorithm used by the MODIS aerosol group to produce the MODO4 product (MODO4). Over global oceans, direct radiative cooling by aerosols for clear scenes identified from MODO4 is estimated to be 5.5 W m-2, compared to 3.8 W m-2 for clear scenes from NOAA-SSF. Regionally, differences are largest in areas affected by dust aerosol, such as oceanic regions adjacent to the Saharan and Saudi Arabian deserts, and in northern Pacific Ocean regions influenced by dust transported from Asia. The net total-sky (clear and cloudy) DREA is negative (cooling) and is estimated to be -2.0 W m-2 from MOD04, and -1.6 W m-2 from NOAA-SSF. The DREA is shown to have pronounced seasonal cycles in the Northern Hemisphere and large year-to-year fluctuations near deserts. However, no systematic trend in deseasonalized anomalies of the DREA is observed over the 46-month time series considered.

Loeb, N. G.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Separating the Chemical and Dynamical Contributions to the Ozone Change

Statistical analysis is used to extract the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric chlorine due to emissions of chlorofluorcarbons from the observed ozone record. The statistical analysis relies on a model that accounts for natural variations in ozone including the seasonal cycle, the solar cycle, variations in aerosols due to volcanic eruption, and the quasi- biennial oscillation, A noise term includes contributions to ozone variability due to inter-annual variability in the stratospheric circulation not due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, The residual circulation varies due to variability in planetary wave forcing, and studies using meteorological analyses show that the build-up of ozone over the winter is correlated with the planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux. This variability in the residual circulation is not included in the statistical model, and contributes to the apparent ozone sensitivity to chlorine derived from observations for 1979 - 2000. We have investigated these relationships using multi-decadal simulations of our off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM). Our simulations use meteorological fields output from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model (GCM). A 50 climatology specifies the sea surface temperatures to produce the GCM simulation. The CTM was used with these winds to produce two simulations, one in which the boundary conditions for chlorofluorcarbons and other source gases vary as specified for 1973-2022 by the Scenario A2 of the World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment, and the second with source gases fixed to their 1979 values. The same statistical analysis used to derive trends from observations is applied to the CTM output. When applied to the difference between the two simulations the statistical analysis provides a more precise measure of the ozone sensitivity to chlorine change. We are testing ways of including the interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model so that we can derive the same result from the Scenario A2 simulation as is obtained when the statistical analysis is applied to the difference between the two simulations. This should provide direction as to how to account for the changes in ozone due to interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model that is applied to the observed data record.

Douglass, Anne R.↗