Results for “Scenario planning” — Page 29

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance Impacts to the NASA Artemis II Trajectory Correction Burn Placement

As NASA embarks to return humans to the lunar vicinity with the upcoming Artemis II mission, the selected free return trajectory taking the crew to the Moon in the Orion spacecraft is impacted by the execution of small trajectory correction burns to ensure the spacecraft stays on course for a successful return to Earth. The placement of these nominally zero translational maneuvers must account for the crew schedule, navigation tracking constraints, spacecraft venting, thermal and communication requirements, and a host of other programmatic factors. Understanding the influence the placement of these periodic burn corrections have on the integrated GN\&C performance can provide valuable insight to mission controllers and trajectory planning processes to untangle the complex trade space considered for both baseline and contingency scenarios. This sensitivity information can also be utilized to facilitate the optimized placement of these burns. This paper utilizes several techniques to systematically generate the performance impacts to the NASA Artemis II trajectory correction burn placement and demonstrate how to derive optimized locations that make the system robust to crew activity, maneuver execution errors, navigation uncertainty, orbit insertion errors, disturbance accelerations, and other system limitations.

GN&C↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leading Energy Analysis: Data-Driven Insights That Power Our Energy Future

Energy analysts at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) use a broad set of expertise and cutting-edge tools to capture the complexities of our interconnected energy system. Decision-makers rely on these insights to drive cost savings, enhance grid reliability, support long-term innovation, and bolster America's energy workforce and global competitiveness. This fact sheet highlights some of NREL's high-impact analyses, data, and tools, largely focusing on power grid analysis.

data↗

NASA NTRS1988

Integration of task level planning and diagnosis for an intelligent robot

The use of robots in the future must go beyond present applications and will depend on the ability of a robot to adapt to a changing environment and to deal with unexpected scenarios (i.e., picking up parts that are not exactly where they were expected to be). The objective of this research is to demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating high level planning into a robot enabling it to deal with anomalous situations in order to minimize the need for constant human instruction. The heuristics can be used by a robot to apply information about previous actions towards accomplishing future objectives more efficiently. The system uses a decision network that represents the plan for accomplishing a task. This enables the robot to modify its plan based on results of previous actions. The system serves as a method for minimizing the need for constant human instruction in telerobotics. This paper describes the integration of expert systems and simulation as a valuable tool that goes far beyond this project. Simulation can be expected to be used increasingly as both hardware and software improve. Similarly, the ability to merge an expert system with simulation means that we can add intelligence to the system. A malfunctioning space satellite is described. The expert system uses a series of heuristics in order to guide the robot to the proper location. This is part of task level planning. The final part of the paper suggests directions for future research. Having shown the feasibility of an expert system embedded in a simulation, the paper then discusses how the system can be integrated with the MSFC graphics system.

Gerstenfeld, Arthur↗

DOE OSTI2021

Methods for Representing Flexible, Energy-Constrained Technologies in Utility Planning Tools

Capacity expansion models are widely used by power system researchers, planners, and policy analysts to evaluate alternative power system investment scenarios. With the increasing deployment of wind and solar in the US, there has been much focus on improving the representations of variable generation (VG) technologies within capacity expansion models. Models that capture the variable net-load profiles and larger reserve requirements associated with high penetration VG systems represent an improvement to classic capacity expansion models, but fall short of capturing the complexities associated with storage technologies, such as battery energy storage (BES) and concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP with TES). While difficult to model in a capacity expansion setting, these technologies are potentially competitive sources of flexibility with the intriguing characteristics of being able to absorb VG that would otherwise be curtailed and directly contribute to renewable energy goals, respectively. In this paper we present methods for accurately representing these technologies in a large-scale capacity expansion model with high electrical and geospatial resolution. VG modeling techniques, including novel methods for capturing curtailment due to unit commitment and other hourly dispatch phenomena, are also reviewed. Modeling for a region in the southwestern United States demonstrates the economic relevance of being able to explicitly trade off the costs and capabilities of energy-constrained technologies, especially BES, against other resources in the near-term, in time to make plans for the coming decade

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantum Renewable Scenario Generation

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2010

Reactive Collision Avoidance Algorithm

The reactive collision avoidance (RCA) algorithm allows a spacecraft to find a fuel-optimal trajectory for avoiding an arbitrary number of colliding spacecraft in real time while accounting for acceleration limits. In addition to spacecraft, the technology can be used for vehicles that can accelerate in any direction, such as helicopters and submersibles. In contrast to existing, passive algorithms that simultaneously design trajectories for a cluster of vehicles working to achieve a common goal, RCA is implemented onboard spacecraft only when an imminent collision is detected, and then plans a collision avoidance maneuver for only that host vehicle, thus preventing a collision in an off-nominal situation for which passive algorithms cannot. An example scenario for such a situation might be when a spacecraft in the cluster is approaching another one, but enters safe mode and begins to drift. Functionally, the RCA detects colliding spacecraft, plans an evasion trajectory by solving the Evasion Trajectory Problem (ETP), and then recovers after the collision is avoided. A direct optimization approach was used to develop the algorithm so it can run in real time. In this innovation, a parameterized class of avoidance trajectories is specified, and then the optimal trajectory is found by searching over the parameters. The class of trajectories is selected as bang-off-bang as motivated by optimal control theory. That is, an avoiding spacecraft first applies full acceleration in a constant direction, then coasts, and finally applies full acceleration to stop. The parameter optimization problem can be solved offline and stored as a look-up table of values. Using a look-up table allows the algorithm to run in real time. Given a colliding spacecraft, the properties of the collision geometry serve as indices of the look-up table that gives the optimal trajectory. For multiple colliding spacecraft, the set of trajectories that avoid all spacecraft is rapidly searched on-line. The optimal avoidance trajectory is implemented as a receding-horizon model predictive control law. Therefore, at each time step, the optimal avoidance trajectory is found and the first time step of its acceleration is applied. At the next time step of the control computer, the problem is re-solved and the new first time step is again applied. This continual updating allows the RCA algorithm to adapt to a colliding spacecraft that is making erratic course changes.

Scharf, Daniel↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BioSentinel: Mission Summary and Lessons Learned From the First Deep Space Biology CubeSat Mission

Launched on Artemis-1, BioSentinel carries a biology experiment into deep space for the first time in 50 years. A 6U CubeSat form factor was utilized for the spacecraft which included technologies newly developed or adapted for operations beyond Earth orbit. The spacecraft carries onboard budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as an analog to human cells to test the biological response to deep space radiation. This was the maiden deep-space voyage for many of the subsystems, and the first time to evaluate their performance in flight operation. Flying a CubeSat beyond LEO comes with unique challenges with respect to trajectory uncertainty and mission operations planning. The nominal plan was a lunar fly-by, followed by an insertion into Heliocentric orbit. However, some possible scenarios included lunar eclipses that could have severely impacted the power budget during that phase of the mission, while others could have resulted in a “Retrograde” hyperbola at swing-by resulting in the spacecraft traveling inward toward Earth or even towards a collision with the lunar surface. The commissioning phase of the mission was successful and completed a week ahead of schedule. It did not come without its exciting moments and challenges. First contact with the spacecraft uncovered that the vehicle was unexpectedly tumbling after deployment, a situation that needed to be corrected urgently. The mission operations team executed a contingency plan to stabilize the spacecraft, with just moments to spare before the battery ran out of power. The BioSensor payload onboard the spacecraft is a complex instrument that includes microfluidics, fluid systems, sensor control electronics, as well at the living yeast cells. BioSentinel also included a TimePix radiation sensor implemented by JSC’s RadWorks group. Dose and Linear Energy Transfer (LET) data is compared directly to the rate of DSB-and repair events measured by the S. cerevisiae cells. BioSentinel mature nanosatellite technologies included: deep space communications and navigation, autonomous attitude control and momentum management, and micro-propulsion systems, to provide an adaptable nanosatellite platform for deep space uses. This paper discusses the performance of the BioSentinel spacecraft through the mission phase, and includes lessons learned from challenges and anomalies. BioSentinel had many successes and will be a pathfinder for future deep space CubeSats and biology missions.

BioSentinel↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biosentinel: Mission Summary and Lessons Learned From the First Deep Space Biology CubeSat Mission

Launched on Artemis-1, BioSentinel carries a biology experiment into deep space for the first time in 50 years. A 6U CubeSat form factor was utilized for the spacecraft which included technologies newly developed or adapted for operations beyond Earth orbit. The spacecraft carries onboard budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as an analog to human cells to test the biological response to deep space radiation. This was the maiden deep-space voyage for many of the subsystems, and the first time to evaluate their performance in flight operation. Flying a CubeSat beyond LEO comes with unique challenges with respect to trajectory uncertainty and mission operations planning. The nominal plan was a lunar fly-by, followed by an insertion into Heliocentric orbit. However, some possible scenarios included lunar eclipses that could have severely impacted the power budget during that phase of the mission, while others could have resulted in a “Retrograde” hyperbola at swing-by resulting in the spacecraft traveling inward toward Earth or even towards a collision with the lunar surface. The commissioning phase of the mission was successful and completed a week ahead of schedule. It did not come without its exciting moments and challenges. First contact with the spacecraft uncovered that the vehicle was unexpectedly tumbling after deployment, a situation that needed to be corrected urgently. The mission operations team executed a contingency plan to stabilize the spacecraft, with just moments to spare before the battery ran out of power. The BioSensor payload onboard the spacecraft is a complex instrument that includes microfluidics, fluid systems, sensor control electronics, as well at the living yeast cells. BioSentinel also included a TimePix radiation sensor implemented by JSC’s RadWorks group. Dose and Linear Energy Transfer (LET) data is compared directly to the rate of DSB-and repair events measured by the S. cerevisiae cells. BioSentinel mature nanosatellite technologies included: deep space communications and navigation, autonomous attitude control and momentum management, and micro-propulsion systems, to provide an adaptable nanosatellite platform for deep space uses. This paper discusses the performance of the BioSentinel spacecraft through the mission phase, and includes lessons learned from challenges and anomalies. BioSentinel had many successes and will be a pathfinder for future deep space CubeSats and biology missions.

BioSentinel↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biosentinel: The First Deep Space Biology CubeSat Mission- Mission Summary and Lessons Learned

Launched on Artemis-1, BioSentinel carries a biology experiment into deep space for the first time in 50 years. A 6U CubeSat form factor was utilized for the spacecraft which included technologies newly developed or adapted for operations beyond Earth orbit. The spacecraft carries onboard budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as an analog to human cells to test the biological response to deep space radiation. This was the maiden deep-space voyage for many of the subsystems, and the first time to evaluate their performance in flight operation. Flying a CubeSat beyond LEO comes with unique challenges with respect to trajectory uncertainty and mission operations planning. The nominal plan was a lunar fly-by, followed by an insertion into Heliocentric orbit. However, some possible scenarios included lunar eclipses that could have severely impacted the power budget during that phase of the mission, while others could have resulted in a “Retrograde” hyperbola at swing-by resulting in the spacecraft traveling inward toward Earth or even towards a collision with the lunar surface. The commissioning phase of the mission was successful and completed a week ahead of schedule. It did not come without its exciting moments and challenges. First contact with the spacecraft uncovered that the vehicle was unexpectedly tumbling after deployment, a situation that needed to be corrected urgently. The mission operations team executed a contingency plan to stabilize the spacecraft, with just moments to spare before the battery ran out of power. The BioSensor payload onboard the spacecraft is a complex instrument that includes microfluidics, fluid systems, sensor control electronics, as well at the living yeast cells. BioSentinel also included a TimePix radiation sensor implemented by JSC’s RadWorks group. Dose and Linear Energy Transfer (LET) data is compared directly to the rate of DSB-and repair events measured by the S. cerevisiae cells. BioSentinel mature nanosatellite technologies included: deep space communications and navigation, autonomous attitude control and momentum management, and micro-propulsion systems, to provide an adaptable nanosatellite platform for deep space uses. This paper discusses the performance of the BioSentinel spacecraft through the mission phase, and includes lessons learned from challenges and anomalies. BioSentinel had many successes and will be a pathfinder for future deep space CubeSats and biology missions.

BioSentinel↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Value of Technology and Policy Innovation in Water Resource Portfolios

Abstract Recent water infrastructure planning models demonstrate that explicitly accounting for hydrological changes in long‐term water planning reduces costs and increases system robustness. However, current models do not consider the effects of other changes occurring in the system over long time horizons, namely technology and policy innovation. By leveraging state‐of‐the‐art dynamic control techniques, we propose a suite of tools that explicitly relate hydrologic change, technology innovation, and policy interventions to system‐level water costs. We design robust and cost‐optimal strategies for water supply expansion under hydrological variability and hundreds of plausible innovation states, for example, treatment cost and diversification improvements, deployment times, and demand reduction campaigns. Our approach circumvents the need to pre‐assign probabilities to innovation scenarios and, instead, directly calculates the effects of technology, policy, and hydrology variations on system cost and planning strategies to identify avenues of impactful innovation. These tools can support technology development hubs, urban, state, and federal water planners in anticipating cost implications of technology and policy innovation at the local level, and prioritizing high‐impact innovation goals based on quantitative targets. Results for the case study of Santa Barbara, California identify high‐value innovation attributes for the city as well as combinations of innovation attributes across technologies and policies, and quantify their potential utility cost reductions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States Appendix: Reference and High Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios for Three Regions [Slides]

This slide deck is an appendix to a paper series that examines potential challenges related to planning future power systems with higher solar photovoltaic (PV) penetrations. The series uses the western U.S. power system for these investigations because it is a region the authors and their colleagues have already extensively studied. We are therefore well-suited to analyze even higher PV penetrations and then examine the results in multiple models to determine whether our current approaches are missing key details that only emerge at higher PV penetrations. This deck details the systems underlying those analyses and how they were modeled using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), a capacity expansion modeling tool. We examine both Western Interconnection-wide and regional results for three regions in the Western U.S. with significantly different existing power systems and connections to neighboring regions; this provides a more balanced picture as to how power systems with high PV penetration might emerge in different contexts and what the resulting grid challenges, if any, might be.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilience-Oriented DG Siting and Sizing Considering Stochastic Scenario Reduction

In this paper, a fuel-based distributed generator (DG) allocation strategy is proposed to enhance the distribution system resilience against extreme weather. The long-term planning problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming (SMIP). The first stage is to make decisions of DG siting and sizing under the given budget constraint. In the second stage, a post-extreme-event-restoration (PEER) is employed to minimize the operating cost in an uncertain fault scenario. In particular, this study proposes a method to select the most representative scenarios for the SMIP. First, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is introduced to generate sufficient scenarios considering random fault locations and load profiles. Then, the number of scenarios is reduced by the K-means clustering algorithm. The advantage of scenario reduction is to make a trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the SMIP is solved by the progressive hedging algorithm. Here, the case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in reducing the expected energy not served (EENS), which is a critical criterion of resilience.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1989

The role of flight planning in aircrew decision performance

The role of flight planning in increasing the safety and decision-making performance of the air transport crews was investigated in a study that involved 48 rated airline crewmembers on a B720 simulator with a model-board-based visual scene and motion cues with three degrees of freedom. The safety performance of the crews was evaluated using videotaped replays of the flight. Based on these evaluations, the crews could be divided into high- and low-safety groups. It was found that, while collecting information before flights, the high-safety crews were more concerned with information about alternative airports, especially the fuel required to get there, and were characterized by making rapid and appropriate decisions during the emergency part of the flight scenario, allowing these crews to make an early diversion to other airports. These results suggest that contingency planning that takes into account alternative courses of action enhances rapid and accurate decision-making under time pressure.

Pepitone, Dave↗

NASA NTRS1985

Computer simulation of environmental, hazard scenarios in space

The development of the Advanced Computer Graphics Laboratory at NASA/JSC will enable NASA engineers to utilize state-of-the-art computer systems to simulate and analyze current and planned space missions. These systems utilize computer graphics to animate automated satellite rendezvous and docking, satellite servicing, tether operations, as well as remote manipulator activities and assembly of large space structures including the space station. These computer simulations enhance the engineering evaluation of possible hazardous scenarios in space by allowing users to view from any point in space these activities and determine if any potential problem could occur.

Brown, R. H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios toward Global Decarbonization: Role of Disruptive Technologies

To totally decarbonize global electrical systems using photovoltaics (PVs) in the 2050–2060 decade, the world would need to install 63.4 TW of PV. This article models and explores how a PV manufacturing ramp‐up trajectory toward this goal can be achieved while assuming that investors continue to make financially rational decisions avoiding stranded production assets and therefore protecting their return on investment. The model effectively exploits experience curve benefits in both the scaling of the manufacturing process and continued progress in product design technologies. The scale‐up challenge is amplified because trajectories that achieve this goal require an unprecedented ramp‐up of production capacity over just two decades, followed by relatively modest demand to maintain the installed base and support continued population growth. It is demonstrated that sustainable ramp‐up of manufacturing is indeed possible and shown that the deployment of the requisite manufacturing capacity can be accelerated and accomplished at lower total capital cost by the introduction of disruptive technologies that have lower capital intensity, embedded energy, or higher efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Automation Tool to Create Chronological AC Power Flow Cases for Large Interconnected Systems

Combining planning models with operational details allows the industry to proactively investigate future resource and load scenarios, rather than react to their implementation in real time. In this project, the following tasks are proposed. The methodologies we developed to resolve current challenges in importing and solving the chronological AC power flow is a three-stage process.

Vyakaranam, Bharat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗