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At least 523 records · Page 29

Separability of the Dirac equation in the STU black hole spacetime: Pairwise-equal charge case study

We study the separability of the Dirac equation in the background of four dimensional charged rotating asymptotically flat black hole solution of supergravity and the low energy string theory known as STU black hole. In particular, we analyze in detail the separability conditions in the pairwise equal charge STU black hole space-time. While in the latter case the minimally coupled Dirac equation is not separable, the introduction of a specific torsion term ensures the separability. The source of the torsion is the Kalb-Ramond field, which is an integral part of string theory, but further aspects of its properties and coupling to fermionic fields remain to be studied. To derive the torsion, two different approaches are used in conformally related frames, showing that the torsion is not unique. The correspondingly modified Dirac equations in the Einstein and string frames are shown to be separable. Furthermore, the massless radial and angular wave equations are examined; they show close similarity with corresponding equations for the standard Kerr background. A generalization of the Teukolsky equation for the pairwise equal case is conjectured. We also briefly analyze a technically sophisticated radial equation in the massive case.

Dirac equation↗

Daily water stable isotopes, transpiration, and matrix potential data for an aspen and engelmann stand in the East River Watershed (version 2)

We provide daily stable isotope (2H & 18O) ratios in soil water and xylem (plant stem) water, as well as the sap flow (transpiration) and the soil's matric potential at a forested site near Gothic, Colorado, in the East River catchment. We measured the stable isotopic composition of the transpiration and the daily transpiration flux sum of three aspen and three engelmann spruce. In both forest stands, we installed a soil profile and measured the soil matric potential at 15, 30, and 60 cm depth as well as the stable isotopes of soil pore water at 5, 10, 30, 60, and 90 cm depths. All isotope measurements were done in situ via vapor probes connected to a cavity ring down spectrometer (Picarro L1240i).We further report the daily meteorological data observed at billy barr near our study site. We also provide for each tree the relative share of root water uptake derived from the isotope measurements via a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR).The daily data is provided as a time series in "Iso_MP_Sap_DataDaily_ESSDiveUpload.csv" and the units are provided in "dd.csv"; the location of the instrumented trees and soil profiles are given as latitude and longitude coordinates saved as CSV and KMZ files; and a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata.The data was gathered to investigate the short-term changes of the water sources (i.e., variation of root water uptake from different soil depths) of the studied subalpine trees.Update 07/16/2025: The relative and absolute plant water uptake depths were grouped to ensure that the MixSIAR model was applied with endmembers that differed in their d2H value by at least 3 permill and at least 1 permill for d18O. Whenever the difference between observed d2H values for two or more probes at neighboring depths was less than 3 permill, we used the average value for the source water endmember. For days at which probes that were not next to each other measurements did not differ at least 3 permill, the average of all probes between these two depths was used as the water source endmember representing the depth range between these two probes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

(U) A Theoretical Study of Asay Foil Trajectories (V.02)

We consider the trajectory of a generic Asay foil ejecta momentum diagnostic sensor, for scenarios where ejecta are produced at a planar surface and fly ballistically through a perfect vacuum to the sensor. To do so, we build upon a previously established mathematical formalism derived for the analytic study of stationary sensors (i.e., piezopins). First, we derive the momentum conservation equation for the problem, in a form amenable to accelerating sensors, in terms of a generic ejecta source areal mass function (“source model”). This defines an integro-differential equation (IDE) for the foil trajectory. When ejecta production is instantaneous - as is generally assumed in momentum diagnostic data analyses - the IDE leads to an implicit and easily calculable closed-form solution for the foil trajectory in a perfect system, as long as the ejecta particle velocity distribution is twice-integrable. General properties of the instant-production trajectory solution indicate the existence of a boundary condition the particle velocity distribution must satisfy in order for the analytically predicted foil trajectories to be compatible with certain features commonly observed in foil data. This boundary condition is identical to one derived previously from a consideration of piezopin data. Armed with the analytic solution for instant production, we also consider various techniques used to extract time-dependent cumulative ejecta masses from foil trajectories, and derive an expression for the error imposed by using an approximated equation of motion. This analytic trajectory solution furthermore makes it possible to examine the common practice of presenting inferred cumulative ejecta masses as a function of a normalized implied velocity; we derive conditions under which this methodology is and is not meaningful. We also propose a strategy for extending the instant-production trajectory solution to time-dependent source functions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

IRAD-MPE Radiological and Nuclear Security Threats (Day 1) [Slides]

This module is designed to enhance awareness regarding radiological and nuclear security threats and the types of radioactive materials that can be used for criminal purposes or terrorist acts. The goals are to: (1) Review the Threat Assessment Process for MPEs, (2) Recognize Potential Radiological and Nuclear Security Threats, (3) Understand the basics of Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDD) and Radiological Exposure Devices (RED), (4) Learn about Medical, Commercial, and Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM) sources, and (5) Understand the term Material Out of Regulatory Control (MORC).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

New Theories for Neutrino Masses and Dark Matter

The main goal of the project is to investigate new theories for neutrino masses and dark matter, and understand their testability in different experiments. The PI proposed several mechanisms for neutrino masses in the context of B-L theories, left-right symmetric theories, supersymmetric theories and grand unified theories. The PI would like to investigate new ways to understand the origin of neutrino masses where the seesaw scale is in the multi-TeV region. One can have a multi-TeV seesaw scale in scenarios where the same symmetry relevant for neutrino masses defines the dark matter relic density, or in the minimal supersymmetric theory based on local B-L. In these theories one can have new ways to understand the testability of the origin of neutrino masses at colliders and low energy experiments. In these theories one predicts the possibility to observe lepton number violating signatures at the LHC, one can predict large contributions to lepton number violating processes such as mu to e conversion, neutrinoless double beta decay experiments and others. The nature of the dark matter in the Universe is one of the most important problems in cosmology. Two of the most popular candidates are the Axions and the Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs). The PI would like to investigate the implications of a new electroweak theta term similar to the QCD vacuum angle but in the SU(2) gauge sector of the SM which is physical if the baryon and lepton numbers are broken symmetries. We will investigate the implications of having a new electroweak theta term dark matter portal, the implications for baryogenesis and understand the constraints coming from different experiments such as the searches for electric dipole moments and axion experiments. The implications of having the electroweak theta term in theories with different sources of baryon and lepton number violation will be investigated. WIMPs are perhaps the most appealing candidates for many reasons. The PI would like to investigate the properties of WIMPs in different gauge theories, study the implications of the cosmological bounds on the WIMPs relic density for the symmetry breaking scale in models for new physics. The PI would like to investigate in great detail the predictions for gamma lines, neutrino lines and other striking signatures which can be present in these theories. These studies can have a profound impact in the testability of different theories for physics beyond the Standard Model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Value of Nuclear Energy to the Reliability of the North American Power System: Results for Western and Eastern Interconnections

This report documents the fulfillment of a milestone for the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: completing a baseline study of regional impact of nuclear power plants and hydrogen production in maintaining grid services and power quality. Models have been comprehensively demonstrated for the Western Interconnection, or Western Electric Coordinating Council area, and in the Eastern Interconnection for scenarios representative of past extreme events (e.g., drought and heat waves). Understanding the impact on the reliability of the bulk electric system of any reduction in generation capacity from nuclear power, for any reason, is the motivation of this work. Factors that might lead to the premature or unplanned closure of nuclear plants, extended outages, or repurposing of nuclear power include: • Aging infrastructure: Many nuclear power plants in the U.S. are nearing the end of their designed operating lives. Upgrading aging infrastructure can be expensive, and some utilities may choose to retire plants rather than invest in costly upgrades. • Low wholesale electricity prices: The deregulation of the electricity market in many states has led to increased competition and driven down wholesale electricity prices, causing nuclear power operators to seek other revenue sources for their heat and power such as clean hydrogen production. • Renewables growth: The rapid growth of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power is posing a challenge to traditional generation sources like nuclear. While many see renewables as a key part of the clean energy transition, their intermittent nature requires additional grid solutions for reliable power supply. • The potential for regulatory decisions to be in conflict: In its 2021 rulemaking, EPA rule (86 FR 880), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set a compliance date for the ban on processing and distribution in commerce of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (DecaBDE). Since DecaBDE is in many components, particularly wiring, of nuclear power plants which are deemed safety-related or important to safety, three plants would not have been able to restart after their 2023 spring outages, and numerous others would have faced issues in the near future. Fortunately, in this case, the EPA provided relief to the nuclear energy industry. The report provides a summary of the significant role nuclear energy plays in the United States’ power generation mix, supplying around 20% of the nation’s electricity generation, spread across 28 U.S. states. Nuclear power is reliable, mostly unaffected by weather and seasonal changes, and provides a consistent source of baseload power. In terms of capacity, nuclear power plants account for as much as 26% of balancing area power generation capacity. Nuclear power also provides a substantial contribution (e.g., 10% of the inertia in the Eastern Interconnection) of the synchronous spinning mass/inertia that buffers the rate at which frequency changes when a load and generation imbalance occurs (e.g., a large plant trips or a load is suddenly shed due to a transmission outage). This contribution is critical for maintaining grid stability during sudden changes in load or generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evolving Outer Heliosphere: Tracking Solar Wind Transients from 1 au to the VLISM with IBEX and Voyager 1

Abstract Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) observations of energetic neutral atom (ENA) fluxes from the heliosphere have greatly enriched our understanding of the interaction of the solar wind (SW) with the local interstellar medium (LISM). However, there has been recent controversy surrounding the inability of most ENA models to produce as high an intensity of ∼0.5–6 keV ENAs as IBEX observes at 1 au, especially as a function of time. In our previous study (E. J. Zirnstein et al.), we introduced a new model that utilizes a data-driven magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the SW–LISM interaction to propagate pickup ions through the heliosheath (HS) after they are nonadiabatically heated at the heliospheric termination shock. E. J. Zirnstein et al. only simulated and analyzed IBEX observations from the direction of Voyager 2. In this study, we expand our model to include fluxes from the direction of Voyager 1, as well as in the low-latitude part (middle) of the ribbon (10° below the ecliptic plane). We show that the model results at Voyager 1 are consistent with E. J. Zirnstein et al.’s results at Voyager 2 in terms of a secondary ENA source contribution of ≲20% from both directions. Our results in the middle of the ribbon also reproduce the data, when including a time-dependent secondary ENA source. Finally, we demonstrate with our simulation that three large pressure waves likely merged in the VLISM and were observed by Voyager 1 as “pf2,” while at least one of the wave’s effects in the HS was observed by IBEX as a brief enhancement in ENA flux in early 2016.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

ReEDS Performance Improvement

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) is an open-source, spatially explicit, long-term capacity expansion model for the bulk electric power system of the contiguous United States, encompassing multiple scenarios with technological and political assumptions (see https://github.com/NREL/ReEDS-2.0). With the increased needs for capabilities, higher temporal and spatial resolutions to model the evolution of the power system with modern technologies and low-carbon pathways, ReEDS' model solution times have increased significantly from 4-6 hours in 2018 to 18-48+ hours in 2023 . Also, the model size for commonly-run ReEDS scenarios reached 22 and 28 million equations and variables, respectively. These runtimes can be especially challenging under certain scenario settings (e.g., very high temporal or spatial resolution) or with limited computational power. In this presentation, we will discuss several methods we used to improve model runtime, including data preparation, model modification, and solver tuning. The implementation of these methods shrank the model size to 7.2 and 7.3 million equations and variables, respectively. Furthermore, this led to a 77% reduction in the model's run time for commonly-run ReEDS scenarios. We will discuss the process of identifying areas for solve time improvements and how the specific enhancements for the ReEDS model might be applied to other similar large-scale models.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗

Resonance cones in cold plasma: Origin, singularities, and power flow

In magnetized tenuous plasma, typical at the plasma edge of fusion devices, a nearly electrostatic wave mode with relatively enhanced electric field can propagate along a specific angle with the magnetic field. For this characteristic, it is known as a “resonance cone.” For instance, these waves can be excited by radio frequency antennas in the ion-cyclotron and lower-hybrid range of frequencies. We consider the resonance cones emitted by idealized spatially extended sources. In 2D, we use a novel geometric construction which generalizes the d'Alembert solution to curved boundaries/moving sources, and show, for the first time, that singular electric fields arise under these conditions, thereby bringing the resonance cones in line with the other resonances of the cold plasma theory. Still in 2D, we give an expression for the amount of power radiated by resonance cones in terms of surface quantities on the source, which is finite despite the singular electric field. In conclusion, we generalize the conclusions regarding the presence and location of singular electric fields to the 3D electromagnetic case.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Long-term Accumulation, Depth Distribution, and Speciation of Silver Nanoparticles in Biosolids-Amended Soils

Biosolids, when applied to soil, can be a source of metals and metal nanoparticles. One of the metals that forms nanoparticles is silver (Ag), which is commonly used in elemental (Ag(0)) form as an engineered nanomaterial in industrial or consumer products. The objective of this study was to quantify and characterize the accumulation and transport of Ag in a natural soil that has received agronomically-recommended rates of biosolids as fertilizer for the past 23 years (1994{2017). Total Ag concentrations were measured in biosolids and soil samples collected from 0 to 10 cm between 1996 and 2017. In addition, the depth distribution of Ag in the soil down to 60-cm depth was measured in 2017. Electron microscopy, in combination with X-ray spectroscopy, and X-ray absorption spectroscopy were used to identify the elemental association and oxidation state of the Ag in the samples. The Ag concentrations in the biosolids-amended soil increased steadily from 1996 until 2007, after which the concentrations leveled off at about 1.25 mg Ag kg-1 soil. This corresponded with a decrease of Ag concentrations in the biosolids over time. The majority of the Ag (82%) was confined to the top 10 cm of the soil, small amounts (14%) were detected in 10 to 20-cm depth, and trace amounts (4%) in 30 to 40-cm depth. The Ag in the biosolids and soil was identified as Ag-containing nanoparticles with a diameter of 10 to 12 nm. Ag was associated with S suggest that these 19 nanoparticles are Ag2S. This could be corroborated in biosolids with X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XANES); however, the Ag concentrations in the soil samples were too low to allow identification with XANES. Biosolids, when applied at agronomic rates in dryland cropping systems, represent an economically viable source of crop nutrients. In our study, long-term application of biosolids did not increase the concentration of total Ag in soil above a maximum of 1.5 mg Ag kg-1, and the Ag is present in the sulfide form. This concentration is below ecotoxicity limits for Ag2S in soil.

Taylor, Stephen E.↗

Resolving Conflicting Physical and Biochemical Feedbacks to Climate in Response to Long-Term Warming

The goal of the research was to increase our understanding of the microbial mechanisms that control soil organic matter decay in the context of a changing climate. We hypothesized that a major source of carbon respired after long-term soil warming is recalcitrant soil C mineralized by microbes. We found that long-term warming was associated with decreased fungal communities but not bacterial communities, with bacterial communities in organic horizon soils significantly affected by warming. Molecular analysis indicated that this community shift was towards a more oligotrophic community, consistent with previously observed decreased in soil organic matter quality and quantity. We further hypothesized that low labile C resulting from long-term warming has selected for a microbial community that is better able to mineralize recalcitrant C. Analysis of soil communities and individual isolates physiology showed that long-term warming caused bacteria to have increased potential lignolytic activitiy as well as increased carbohydrate degradation potential. This increased ability to degrade recalcitrant soil organic matter is suggested as a mechanism for accelerated soil carbon loss with long-term warming. Soil warming was shown to have little change in transcriptional activity or proteins levels of the enzymes related to recalcitrant C, and little change in the temperature sensitivity of enzyme activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure‐Aware Representation Learning for Effective Performance Prediction

ABSTRACT Application performance is a function of several unknowns stemming from the interactions between the application, runtime, OS, and underlying hardware, making it challenging to model performance using deep learning techniques, especially without a large labeled dataset. Collecting such labeled longitudinal datasets can take weeks. Intuitively, developers could save analysis time during code development by taking a comparative approach between multiple applications. However, the unknown dynamic interactions between applications and execution environments make it difficult for deep learning‐based models to predict the performance of new applications. In this paper, we address these problems by presenting a labeled dataset for the community and taking a comparative analysis approach to explore the source code differences between different correct implementations of the same problem. This paper assesses the feasibility of using purely static information, for example, Abstract Syntax Tree (AST), of applications to predict performance change based on code structure. We evaluate several deep learning‐based representation learning techniques for source code and propose an architecture for the tree‐based Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) models to discover latent representations for a source code's hierarchical structure. We demonstrate that our proposed architecture enables feed‐forward predictive models to predict change in performance using source code with up to 84% accuracy.

Ramadan, Tarek [Department of Computer Science Tex↗

Energy Intensity Baselining and Tracking Guidance

Each company joining the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Better Buildings, Better Plants Program (Better Plants) commits to establishing an energy consumption and energy intensity (EI) baseline and to tracking its energy performance over a 10-year period against that baseline. The baseline must reflect a company’s energy consumption over a 12-month period, covering all its U.S.-based operations. Energy consumption is calculated by fuel type in terms of primary energy (also known as source energy). EI is broadly defined as the amount of energy consumed per unit of output produced. For this guidance document and for the program, the term energy performance represents an evaluation of a facility’s capacity to use energy efficiently. Metrics used to assess a facility’s energy performance can include EI, energy consumption, improvements in EI, etc. Establishing an energy baseline and tracking system is a critical first step in effectively managing energy use. Developing a baseline can help a company understand energy use within the corporation and give it a point of comparison to evaluate future efforts to improve energy performance. It can also support efforts to validate a company’s energy management activities, improve comparative analyses when using benchmarks, and help in predicting future energy needs. In addition, a company that normalizes its performance data can determine highly defensible measures of energy savings generated through implemented energy efficiency projects. Establishing a baseline and tracking energy performance is also a requirement for ISO 50001 certification. Although basic energy data can be collected through utility bills, most manufacturers will have to perform additional analyses to develop accurate and robust energy baselines and tracking systems. Energy is consumed in many ways within the manufacturing sector and can come from multiple sources. Energy is sometimes generated and sold to other parties or captured and reused on-site. External events can exert a significant impact on a facility or company’s energy use independent of any purposeful efforts to improve energy efficiency. Operational changes, such as production shifts—which may be inevitable for some companies over the 10-year period covered by the program—can also make a big difference in energy use. Since Better Plants asks companies to account for all their U.S.-based operations, mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures can also have significant implications for a company’s energy metrics. This document aims to demystify the sometimes complex baselining process. It devotes special attention to the task of normalizing and adjusting energy consumption to account for external factors, such as weather and production changes. A key recommendation is that companies use regression analysis to normalize their energy consumption data whenever possible. Regression analysis is a statistical technique that estimates the dependence of a variable (i.e., energy use in the context of Better Plants) on one or more independent variables such as ambient temperature, while controlling for the influence of other variables at the same time. A properly developed regression analysis can provide a reliable estimate of energy savings resulting from energy improvement strategies and projects by accounting for the effects of variables such as annual production levels and weather. DOE has developed a companion Energy Performance Indicator software tool (EnPI) to simplify the baselining process. This tool can run regression models, calculate changes in EI at the facility level, and automatically compile facility-level data into a corporate-wide metric. Note that although the relevant equations used to calculate EI are provided in this document, the EnPI tool will automatically perform most calculations for the user. Additionally, Better Plants Partners (Partners) can call on their Technical Account Manager (TAM) to help them establish a baseline and assist with the necessary calculations to track progress.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitor Vulnerability Evaluation in DC Power Supplies at the Spallation Neutron Source

The service life of electrolytic capacitors is a concern for long-term reliable operation of power supplies. The Power Conversion Group at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) facility of Oak Ridge National Laboratory is responsible for more than 500 power supplies with over 1000 electrolytic capacitors installed in these power supplies. Most of the electrolytic capacitors have been in operation since 2007 and are either well over or close to the manufacturer provided lifetime. This paper addresses this vulnerability to ensure continued reliable operation of the SNS. The power supply circuit is simulated in a MATLAB/Simulink environment to quantify the capacitor ripple current and operating voltage. Combined with manufacturer data, this information is used to estimate capacitor lifetime. Utilizing the simulation results and lifetime projections of the capacitors, capacitor replacements for the power supplies is prioritized. To assess end-of-life, the ambient temperature and ripple current of the capacitor is used. Based on the manufacturer's data and scientific literature review, capacitor end-of-life is established. The results of the simulations and analysis is presented. Data on the highest priority supplies will also be presented, and statistics on the capacitor performance, reliability and remaining lifetime will be shown.

Harave, Sudarshan↗

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗

Conus-Wide Mapping of Water Availability and Cost

Background: New demands for water can be satisfied through a variety of source options. In some basins surface and/or groundwater may be available through permitting with the state water management agency (termed unappropriated water), alternatively water might be purchased and transferred out of its current use to another (termed appropriated water), or non-traditional water sources can be captured and treated (e.g., wastewater). The relative availability and cost of each source are key factors in the development decision. Unfortunately, these measures are location dependent with no consistent or comparable set of data available for evaluating competing water sources. With the help of water managers, water availability was mapped for over 2500 watersheds throughout CONUS. These values are unique in that they account for institutional factors (i.e., water rights, compacts, treaties, instream flows) that locally limit water use. Five water sources were individually examined, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water, municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Associated costs to acquire, convey and treat the water, as necessary, for each of the five sources were estimated. These metrics were developed to support regional water planning and policy analysis with initial application to electric transmission planning in the western US. Problem: These data were originally developed in 20141 and updated in 20182. New datasets on which these data depend have been published. As such, there is need to update the water availability and cost data. There is also need to map this same data to a county resolution and to publish the data in a more accessible place. Organization of the dataset: Data are organized according to five primary water sources: • Unappropriated fresh surface water • Unappropriated fresh groundwater • Appropriated water • Recycled wastewater, and • Brackish water

Tidwell, Vincent [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Light-Duty Vehicle Transportation Policy and Implication on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The transportation sector accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is under formidable pressure to decarbonize. With a growing number of countries making commitments to achieve carbon neutrality or “net-zero” emissions within the next few decades, it is imperative for transportation researchers and policymakers to understand the viable pathways towards achieving carbon neutrality for light-duty transport. This chapter discusses the transportation policies and GHG emissions of the three largest markets in the world—the U.S., China, and the European Union. The life cycle GHG emissions of various vehicle technologies are evaluated while highlighting the regional and temporal differences. We then use market penetration and fleet models, developed specifically for each market, to comprehensively assess the light-duty transport energy demand and GHG emissions under various scenarios. The modeling results show that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will increase in market share, but internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) will continue to dominate the passenger vehicle stock in the next 20 years under most scenarios. Improving ICEV efficiency can play a critical role in meeting GHG regulations in the near- and medium-term. BEVs, whose GHG emissions are highly dependent on the source of electricity generation, will play an essential role in the long-term as the electric grid becomes cleaner. In summary, transportation policies should be technology agnostic and consider emissions based on the whole life cycle. Moreover, a holistic approach to reducing transportation GHG emissions is key to achieving global environmental goals.

Ou, Shawn↗