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At least 523 records · Page 29

Land, carbon and water footprints in Taiwan

The consumer responsibility approach uses footprints as indicators of the total direct and indirect effects of a product or consumption activity. This study used a time-series analysis of three environmental pressures to quantify the total environmental pressures caused by consumption in Taiwan: land footprint, carbon footprint, and water footprint. Land footprint is the pressure from appropriation of biologically productive land and water area. Carbon footprint is the pressure from greenhouse gas emissions. Water footprint is the pressure from freshwater consumption. Conventional carbon footprint is the total CO{sub 2} emitted by a certain activity or the CO{sub 2} accumulation during a product life cycle. This definition cannot be used to convert CO{sub 2} emissions into land units. This study responds to the needs of “CO{sub 2} land” in the footprint family by applying the carbon footprint concept used by GFN. The analytical results showed that consumption by the average Taiwan citizen in 2000 required appropriation of 5.39 gha (hectares of land with global-average biological productivity) and 3.63 gha in 2011 in terms of land footprint. The average Taiwan citizen had a carbon footprint of 3.95 gha in 2000 and 5.94 gha in 2011. These results indicate that separately analyzing the land and carbon footprints enables their trends to be compared and appropriate policies and strategies for different sectors to be proposed accordingly. The average Taiwan citizen had a blue water footprint of 801 m{sup 3} in 2000 and 784 m{sup 3} in 2011. By comparison, their respective global averages were 1.23 gha, 2.36 gha and 163 m{sup 3} blue water in 2011, respectively. Overall, Taiwan revealed higher environmental pressures compared to the rest of the world, demonstrating that Taiwan has become a high footprint state and has appropriated environmental resources from other countries. That is, through its imports of products with embodied pressures and its exports, Taiwan has transferred the environmental pressures from consuming goods and services to other parts of the world, which is an environmental injustice. This study examines the time series trend of land, carbon, and water footprints in Taiwan. However, if these analyses can be downscaled to city/county levels, they will be more useful for examining different sustainability performance of local governments in different regions. - Highlights: • This study used a time-series analysis of three environmental pressures to quantify the total environmental pressures caused by consumption in Taiwan: land footprint, carbon footprint and water footprint. • The average Taiwan citizen had a land footprint of 5.39 gha in 2000 and 3.63 gha in 2011. • The average Taiwan citizen had a carbon footprint of 3.95 gha in 2000 and 5.94 gha in 2011. • The average Taiwan citizen had a blue water footprint of 801 m{sup 3} in 2000 and 784 m{sup 3} in 2011. • By comparison, their respective global averages were 1.23 gha, 2.36 gha and 163 m{sup 3} blue water footprint in 2011, respectively. Taiwan revealed higher environmental pressures compared to the rest of the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) is a deterministic optimization model of the deployment of electric power generation technologies and transmission infrastructure throughout the contiguous United States into the future. The model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Strategic Energy Analysis Center, is designed to analyze the critical energy issues in the electric sector, especially with respect to potential energy policies, such as clean energy and renewable energy standards or carbon restrictions. ReEDS provides a detailed treatment of electricity-generating and electrical storage technologies and specifically addresses a variety of issues related to renewable energy technologies, including accessibility and cost of transmission, regional quality of renewable resources, seasonal and diurnal generation profiles, variability of wind and solar power, and the influence of variability on the reliability of the electrical grid. ReEDS addresses these issues through a highly discretized regional structure, explicit statistical treatment of the variability in wind and solar output over time, and consideration of ancillary services' requirements and costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Opportunities and Challenges for Solar Minigrid Development in Rural India

The goal of this report is to inform investors about the potential of solar minigrid technologies to serve India’s rural market. India, a rapidly emerging economy with the world’s second largest population, is facing a surging energy demand. A large portion of India’s rural population, which represents 60% of the total population, does not have access to reliable electricity or has limited access and relies heavily on fuels such as wood, diesel, and kerosene to fulfill energy needs. Using the most recent available expenditure data, it is estimated that India’s rural consumers currently spend US$\$$4.86 billion (INR 243 billion ) per year on energy. Because of the linkages between reliable electricity supply, gross domestic product growth, and living standards, the Indian government is accelerating the deployment of electricity to India’s rural population. In January 2010, India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) announced the goal of deploying 20 gigawatts (GW) of grid-connected solar power and 2 GW of off-grid solar by 2022. Their objective is to invest in India’s vast solar resources by deploying solar energy on a broad scale and extending modern power services to millions. Specifically, the JNNSM in Phase I of the mission has set the goal of implementing 1 GW of grid-connected solar and 200 megawatts (MW) of off-grid solar power (rural village electrification) by March 2013. By providing many incentives for renewable energy projects, including capital subsidies of up to 90%, tax holidays, and low-interest loans, the government is hoping to spur clean energy development in key areas. India’s electricity demand is expected to increase from 900 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) to 1,400 billion kWh by March 2017. To meet this demand, India’s power sector overall will need an investment of US$\$$300 billion to US$\$$400 billion during the five-year economic plan that started April 2012 and ends March 2017 to meet its generation targets. MNRE’s target of installing 1,100 MW of solar minigrid capacity in the next five years will require public and private sector investments of roughly $\$$US4.4 billion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Industry Consolidation and Future Airline Network Structures in Europe

In the current downturn in demand for air travel, major airlines are revising and rationalizing their networks in an attempt to improve financial performance and strengthen their defences against both new entrants and traditional rivals. Expansion of commercial agreements or alliances with other airlines has become a key reaction to the increasingly competitive marketplace. In the absence, for regulatory reasons, of cross-border mergers these are the principal means by which the industry can consolidate internationally. This paper analyzes the developments which have been taking place and attempts to itentify the implications for airline network structures and the function of different hub airports. The range of services available to passengers in long-haul markets to/from Europe is evaluated before and after recent industry reorganization. Hubs are crucial to interlink the route networks of parmers in an alliance. However, duplication between nearby hub airports that find themselves within the same airline alliance can lead to loss of service at the weaker locations. The extent to which the alliance hubs in Europe duplicate or complement each other in terms of network coverage is assessed and this methodology also enables the optimal partnerships for "unattached" airlines to be identified. The future role of the various European hubs is considered under different scenarios of global alliance development. The paper concludes by considering possible longer-term developments. In an environment where the low-cost carriers will provide a major element of customer choice, it is suggested that the traditional airlines will retrench around their hubs, surrendering many secondary cities to the low-cost sector. Further reduction in the number of alliances could threaten more of the European hubs. For both regulatory and commercial reasons, the end result may be just one airline alliance - so recreating in the deregulated market the historic rule of IATA.

Dennis, Nigel↗

Overview and outline of Mass-Driver Two

An overview of the Princeton-M.I.T. second mass-driver is presented. Mass-Driver Two is a 13.1 cm caliber system which uses a two coil superconducting bucket and a two-phase in quadrature drive system. Discrete drive coils are individually energized with timing supplied by position-sensing optical detectors. Intermediate energy storage is provided by sector capacitors which are recharged every half cycle by an external power source. A vacuum environment is provided for the superconducting bucket by a 4 inch ID glass pipe with the drive coils surrounding it. Magnetic flight is generated by eddy current repulsion from six copper guide strips lining the glass pipe. The length is 2.5 meters equally divided between acceleration and deceleration sections. Nominal acceleration is 5000 m/sec per sec giving a maximum bucket velocity of 112 m/sec. Regenerative braking is used to decelerate the bucket. Current densities of 25 sq cm are achieved in the superconducting bucket coils and are maintained by a cryogenic service station.

Oneill, G. K.↗

Improving the Cyber and Physical Security Posture of the Electric Sector (Final Report)

Cooperative electric utilities represent an integral part of the larger electric grid and are part of the nation’s critical infrastructure. The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) has a unique relationship with approximately 900 cooperatively owned and operated electric utilities and engaged in a program with the Department of Energy (DOE) to promote a culture of cybersecurity and resiliency within the electric cooperative community. The Rural Cooperative Cybersecurity Capabilities (RC3) Program, funded under a Cooperative Agreement with DOE (Project DE-OE-0000807), focused on improving the cybersecurity and resiliency capabilities of small and mid-sized electric distribution cooperatives. This segment of electric utilities faces many challenges, but also embraces a culture of cooperation that presents opportunities. A customized approach is needed to reach these utilities – one that emphasizes collaboration, more focused and personalized training, use of trusted and familiar experts that can be deployed as needed, software security services that require limited in-house cybersecurity expertise, and shared resource models that enable access to more expensive cybersecurity options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Economic Assessment of Hydrogen Technologies Participating in California Electricity Markets

As the electric sector evolves and increasing amounts of variable renewable generation are installed on the system, there are greater needs for system flexibility and sufficient capacity, and greater concern for overgeneration from renewable sources not well matched in time with electric loads. Hydrogen systems have the potential to support the grid in each of these areas. However, limited information is available about the economic competitiveness of hydrogen system configurations. This paper quantifies the value for hydrogen energy storage and demand response systems to participate in select California wholesale electricity markets using 2012 data. For hydrogen systems and conventional storage systems (e.g., pumped hydro, batteries), the yearly revenues from energy, ancillary service, and capacity markets are compared to the yearly cost to establish economic competitiveness. Hydrogen systems can present a positive value proposition for current markets. Three main findings include: (1) For hydrogen systems participating in California electricity markets, producing and selling hydrogen was found to be much more valuable than producing and storing hydrogen to later produce electricity; therefore systems should focus on producing and selling hydrogen and opportunistically providing ancillary services and arbitrage. (2) Tighter integration with electricity markets generates greater revenues (i.e., systems that participate in multiple markets receive the highest revenue). (3) More storage capacity, in excess of what is required to provide diurnal shifting, does not increase competitiveness in current California wholesale energy markets. As more variable renewable generation is installed, the importance of long duration storage may become apparent in the energy price or through additional markets, but currently, there is not a sufficiently large price differential between days to generate enough revenue to offset the cost of additional storage. Future work will involve expanding to consider later year data and multiple regions to establish more generalized results.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate-risk management

People around the world seek climate-risk information to guide their decisions. For instance, projections about future flood risk inform where households choose to live, how lenders manage credit risks, and which communities receive federal funding. Yet data limitations and fundamental validation challenges raise important concerns about the reliability of such projections. The principles of transparency and reusability help address these concerns by enabling scrutiny of assumptions and methods, development of foundational data and tools, and consistent application of evaluation standards. While there is ongoing debate about how much transparency commercial climate-risk services should provide, many expect non-commercial actors to lead the way on operationalizing transparency and reusability to fulfill their knowledge-building role in the climate-risk ecosystem. However, despite prominent success stories, we find a substantial gap between principles and practice: only four percent of the most-cited peer-reviewed climate-risk studies in recent years fully share their data and code despite this being a widely accepted minimum standard for transparency. We highlight low-cost measures that non-commercial researchers can take now to improve transparency and reusability. We also emphasize that transformative progress requires substantial investment, cross-sector collaboration, and careful consideration of tradeoffs, data rights, and multiple perspectives on equity. We hope this perspective accelerates both immediate actions and longer-term conversations to improve the ability of science to effectively support timely, evidence-based, and sound climate-risk management.

Open Science↗

Strengthening the Security of Operational Technology: Understanding Contemporary Bill of Materials

The evolution of cyber-physical infrastructure has made its security more challenging. The last few years have witnessed a convergence of hardware and software segments in various domains, including operational technology (OT) which is responsible for carrying out critical tasks such as monitoring and controlling power grids, nuclear plants, transportation, and emergency services. Both hardware and software encapsulate numerous open source and proprietary subcomponents, making it crucial for end-users to understand the composition of the products they are using. For example, wind turbines incorporate thousands of lines of code (software) used for the turbine's design, planning, operation, and analytics in addition to the numerous hardware subcomponents that construct it. Due to the highly complex nature of software and hardware, knowledge of the components and subcomponents is required to mitigate cyber vulnerabilities and defend against cyberattacks. There has also been a transformation from a traditional linear supply chain into a global, dynamic, diverse, and interconnected system. The digitization of the supply chain makes it easier to find and exploit vulnerabilities. Critical infrastructures (e.g., power grids, oil, natural gas, water, and wastewater) rely on OT to function, and if the OT is compromised, equipment damage and potential interruption of services could result. A significant security measure to protect OT systems from disruption is to develop a supply chain bill of materials (BoM) corresponding to the software and hardware used in OT, along with attestations amongst vendors and asset owners. A supply chain BoM is a proactive way to understand the inherent vulnerabilities in the system and mitigate them in advance of being exploited. BoMs bolster the trust placed in the digital infrastructure and enhance software supply chain security by sustaining the management of component obsolescence and compliance, along with the seclusion of unsafe segments of a specific product. Adopting BoM tools is becoming increasingly important across various government sectors, as evidenced by the recent U.S. executive order on cybersecurity (NIST 2021). This paper aims to classify BoMs based on structure, functionality, component type, and architecture. The work also discusses case studies to further highlight the benefits of BoMs. In addition, it identifies missing pieces in existing BoM implementations so that future research may identify bounds on where it could expect to make improvements and directly enable researchers to identify promising areas for exploration. Further, the authors provide valuable recommendations to tool developers, researchers, and standardizing organizations (policymakers), additionally benefitting critical infrastructure owners and government executives. This aids in paving a path for future work, thereby, providing suggestions to determine a tool for consumers that best suit their needs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Batteries Included: Top 10 Findings from Berkeley Lab Research on the Growth of Hybrid Power Plants in the United States

One of the most important electric power system trends of the 2010s was the rapid deployment of wind turbines and photovoltaic arrays, but a twist for the 2020s may be the rapid deployment of ‘hybrid’ generation resources. Hybrid power plants typically combine solar or wind (or other energy sources) with co-located storage. While hybridization helps to ease the challenge of balancing variable supply and demand, its relative novelty means that research is needed to facilitate integration and promote innovation. Combining the characteristics of multiple energy, storage, and conversion technologies poses complex questions for grid operations and economics. Project developers, system operators, planners, and regulators would benefit from better data, methods, and tools to estimate the costs, values, and system impacts of hybrid projects. This publication showcases some of Berkeley Lab’s robust research program intended to support private- and public-sector decision-making about hybrid plants in the United States. Our short briefing summarizes articles that we published between 2020 and 2022, links to the in-depth reports, and provides contact details for further engagement on the specific research topics: Growth: Developer interest in hybrid power plants is strong and growing Price vs. Value: PV+storage hybrids have low PPA prices and high value in some regions Market Drivers: Solar hybridization is driven by tax credits and other benefits Configuration Choices: Market prices have incentivized shorter duration batteries with PV Capacity Value: The capacity contribution of a hybrid is less than the sum of its parts Ancillary Services: AS markets are a valuable yet fleeting option for hybrids Market Participation: Hybrids can more flexibly engage with electricity markets Operations: The power system value of hybrids depends on how they are operated Distributed Hybrids: Growth of customer-sited PV+storage hybrids offers new opportunities Future Research: Where next? Priority areas for hybrid power research.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Safer Foundation Solar Demands Skill Collaborative

The milestones and accomplishments achieved in Safer’s Solar Demands Skill Training program required a collective effort of stakeholders. The ability to achieve the desired results and impact lives of the population we serve works best when collaborating with community stakeholders such as community-based organizations, faith-based organizations, community activists, local law enforcement, community residents, employers, and elected and appointed officials. We are working harder than ever to place clients in-demand careers and high-growth industry sectors. Our employer engagement with high growth sectors continues to increase, we have been able to deepen our relationships in this space by providing in demand stackable credential training. Launched our initiative in the green job space by partnering with organizations like ComEd, the Department of Energy, community-based organizations, faith-based organizations, and manufacturers that helped to train clients in the green jobs and renewable energy space. By the end of the year, we will have completed our tenth cohort of photovoltaic solar installation training. The training has been used as a foundation for solar panel installers to acquire new skills in in the green jobs career pathways, such as sales and customer service. It has also served as a pipeline to union-level trade positions through the skills participants obtained through partnership engagement. Safer Foundation's policy and advocacy team plays a major role in expanding opportunities for people with records to over one hundred occupations, including the trades. This reform has allowed many to secure living wage employment, reducing the high recidivism rate within Illinois. Safer continues to build our social enterprise with Reconstructive Technology Partners (RTP). RTP is introducing people with records to the construction trades such as solar, carpentry and electrical through residential remodeling of homes on smaller construction projects. Understanding the need to have a greater community presence, outreach was extended to a boots on the ground model, including, but not limited to door-to-door engagement, DE-EE0008571 Safer Foundation Page 4 of 29 local radio broadcasting and print ads in local newspapers. We continue to seek innovative ways to increase Safer Foundations' presence in the renewable energy space. Outreach efforts gave us an opportunity to share critical reentry information and opportunities about our PV installer program. Giving us reach with local and national audiences alike. We launched a systematic approach to improving client data and client tracking through an evidence-based practices initiative. That implemented an agency wide cross-functional data management system. The system supported our goal of reviewing, evaluating, and making recommendations to improve operational processes, program delivery, information sharing, and more. Played a significant part in the success of the solar program. Finally, economists around the nation agree that there is a significant labor shortage. The shortage directly threatens our ability to sustain our economic growth; if employers do not have access to the workers they need, it can lead to a shutdown in the economic recovery. The demand for Safer Foundation services is more important and impactful than ever. We will continue to build upon our 50 years of experience to address the challenges ahead and serve more people in a better way. We are confident we will accomplish beautiful things that benefit everyone involved because together, we are powerful.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NREL Quickens its Tech Transfer Efforts

Innovations and 'aha' movements in renewable energy and energy efficiency, while exciting in the lab, only truly live up to their promise once they find a place in homes or business. Late last year President Obama issued a directive to all federal agencies to increase their efforts to transfer technologies to the private sector in order to achieve greater societal and economic impacts of federal research investments. The president's call to action includes efforts to establish technology transfer goals and to measure progress, to engage in efforts to increase the speed of technology transfer and to enhance local and regional innovation partnerships. But, even before the White House began its initiative to restructure the commercialization process, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory had a major effort underway designed to increase the speed and impact of technology transfer activities and had already made sure its innovations had a streamlined path to the private sector. For the last three years, NREL has been actively setting commercialization goals and tracking progress against those goals. For example, NREL sought to triple the number of innovations over a five-year period that began in 2009. Through best practices associated with inventor engagement, education and collaboration, NREL quadrupled the number of innovations in just three years. Similar progress has been made in patenting, licensing transactions, income generation and rewards to inventors. 'NREL is known nationally for our cutting-edge research and companies know to call us when they are ready to collaborate,' William Farris, vice president for commercialization and technology transfer, said. 'Once a team is ready to dive in, they don't want be mired in paperwork. We've worked to make our process for licensing NREL technology faster; it now takes less than 60 days for us to come to an agreement and start work with a company interested in our research.' While NREL maintains a robust patent portfolio, often companies are looking to do more than just license a technology. These relationships are invaluable in successfully moving technologies from NREL to the marketplace. 'We may generate new and potentially valuable innovations, but our commercialization partners do the heavy work of building a successful business around our technology,' Farris said. Tools such as CRADAs (Cooperative Research and Development Agreements) allow NREL to continue working with companies to refine and develop technologies. And, working with businesses is an area where NREL excels. NREL is responsible for one quarter of the CRADAs in the DOE system. 'When you look at the results of our CRADA program, you can demonstrate that we are actively engaged with companies in collaborating on research and moving technologies to market,' Farris said. NREL is first among DOE labs with 186 active CRADAs. And last year, NREL also was first with the number of new CRADAs signed. 'Part of the success in our working with industry goes back to NREL's mission to grow and support new industries,' Farris added. 'NREL has basic research capabilities, but we are never going to be the ultimate producer of a commercial product. That is the role of the private sector.' Farris also credits the advocacy and support that the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy at DOE provides for these technology transfer activities. 'EERE's support is critical to our success,' Farris said. To assist the private sector in moving a technology from the lab to the manufacturing line, NREL has a number of programs in place to give that first, or even final, nudge toward commercialization. For instance, the Commercialization Assistance Program helps startups overcome technical barriers by granting free access to 40 hours of work at the lab. Through the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Center, NREL also helps clean energy businesses develop strong links with the financial community, as well as other key stakeholders in the commercialization process. In March, NREL formally opened the Colorado Center for Renewable Energy and Economic Development a cooperative program with the state of Colorado designed to bring together stakeholders and service providers that support the growth of cleantech companies. CREED currently is working with more than 25 stakeholders - governmental partners, universities, industry associations, venture capital organizations and small businesses - to improve the access these groups have to technologies developed at NREL and to provide services such as classes and workshops for entrepreneurs. When it comes to bringing together cleantech stakeholders, NREL's Industry Growth Forum is the marquee event. At the forum, clean energy entrepreneurs have the opportunity to present their business cases to an expert panel of investors and energy executives. Companies that have presented have raised $3.4 billion in funding to date.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Next-Generation Performance-Based Regulation: Emphasizing Utility Performance to Unleash Power Sector Innovation

Performance-based regulation (PBR) enables regulators to reform hundred-year-old regulatory structures to unleash innovations within 21st century power systems. An old regulatory paradigm built to ensure safe and reliable electricity at reasonable prices from capital-intensive electricity monopolies is now adjusting to a new century of disruptive technological advances that change the way utilities make money and what value customers expect from their own electricity company. Advanced technologies are driving change in power sectors around the globe. Innovative technologies are transforming the way electricity is generated, delivered, and consumed. These emerging technology drivers include renewable generation, distributed energy resources such as distributed generation and energy storage, demand-side management measures such as demand-response, electric vehicles, and smart grid technologies and energy efficiency (EE). PBR enables regulators to recognize the value that electric utilities bring to customers by enabling these advanced technologies and integrating smart solutions into the utility grid and utility operations. These changes in the electric energy system and customer capacities means that there is an increasing interest in motivating regulated entities in other areas beyond traditional cost-of-service performance regulation. This report addresses best practices gleaned from more than two decades of PBR in practice, and analyzes how those best practices and lessons can be used to design innovative PBR programs. Readers looking for an introduction to PBR may want to focus on Chapters 1-5. Chapters 6 and 7 contain more detail for those interested in the intricate workings of PBR or particularly innovative PBR.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Soy expansion in Brazil's Cerrado

The Cerrado biome is Brazil's breadbasket and a major provider of ecosystem services, though these dual roles are increasingly at odds, in part because there are few mechanisms to protect remaining vegetation from large‐scale agricultural expansion. We assessed Cerrado conversion to soy using over 580,000 property boundaries, covering 77% of the biome that is eligible for commercial land use, and using microwatersheds, to cover 100% of eligible areas. Soy expansion accounted for 22% of conversion during 2003–14. Only 15% of clearing exceeded restrictions on private properties under the Forest Code (FC). However, 51% of soy farms have violated the FC, five times the rate of other farms. As a leading cause of both Cerrado conversion and FC violations, the soy sector has environmental and economic incentives to shift production to already cleared land. We used suitability maps to identify potential pathways for soy expansion across both old and new cropland frontiers.

Brazil↗

China's Building Energy Demand: Long-Term Implications from a Detailed Assessment

We present here a detailed, service-based model of China’s building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long-term pathways of China’s building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China’s building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China’s building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

Building energy modeling↗

China's Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed Assessment

We present here a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long-term pathways of China's building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Operations and Maintenance Roadmap for U.S. Offshore Wind: Enabling a Cost-Effective and Sustainable U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Industry Through Innovative Operations and Maintenance

The United States is currently targeting 30GW of offshore wind to be installed by 2030, and 150GW by 2050. Even considering future turbine sizes, this represents thousands of new turbines installed in a diverse set of environments, each with their unique design, installation, and maintenance challenges. While much can be learned from European and Asian experience with offshore wind over the past two decades, it is important to understand the unique circumstances of the U.S. This document explores operations and maintenance of offshore wind energy, specific to the U.S. and attempts to lay out a roadmap for needed activities to ensure reliability of future installations. The roadmap was informed through dozens of interviews with a wide cross-section of the industry, including representatives from OEMs, owner/operators, service companies, certification agencies, service providers, and researchers. The roadmap first describes the problem by component - blades, drivetrain and nacelle, structures and foundations, and electrical systems - through a look at current practices and opportunities for improvement in the areas of Failure Mode Analysis and Mitigation; Monitoring, Sensing, and Inspection; and Maintenance Execution. Crosscutting areas of Digitalization, Robotics and Automation, Prognostics and Health Management and O&M Optimization, Experimentation and Demonstration, Standardization, and Design Optimization Considering Reliability and O&M are then discussed. Finally, the roadmap summarizes all of these topics with recommendations for short (1-3 years), medium (4-7 years), and long term (8-12 years) activities, with a description of needed public and private sector contributions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗