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At least 523 records · Page 29

Weibull-Based Design Methodology for Rotating Aircraft Engine Structures

The NASA Energy Efficient Engine (E(sup 3)-Engine) is used as the basis of a Weibull-based life and reliability analysis. Each component's life and thus the engine's life is defined by high-cycle fatigue (HCF) or low-cycle fatigue (LCF). Knowing the cumulative life distribution of each of the components making up the engine as represented by a Weibull slope is a prerequisite to predicting the life and reliability of the entire engine. As the engine Weibull slope increases, the predicted lives decrease. The predicted engine lives L(sub 5) (95 % probability of survival) of approximately 17,000 and 32,000 hr do correlate with current engine maintenance practices without and with refurbishment. respectively. The individual high pressure turbine (HPT) blade lives necessary to obtain a blade system life L(sub 0.1) (99.9 % probability of survival) of 9000 hr for Weibull slopes of 3, 6 and 9, are 47,391 and 20,652 and 15,658 hr, respectively. For a design life of the HPT disks having probable points of failure equal to or greater than 36,000 hr at a probability of survival of 99.9 %, the predicted disk system life L(sub 0.1) can vary from 9,408 to 24,911 hr.

Zaretsky, Erwin↗

We Can't Count on Repairing All Failures Going to Mars

Reliability analysis often assumes that a complex system can be kept operating indefinitely with scheduled maintenance and emergency repair using a stock of spare parts, as long as the spare parts are not depleted. This assumption seems justified for well-tested, widely used, long operational systems with a multigenerational history of failure, redesign, and reliability growth. It seems doubtful that newer, relatively untried, high technology space systems can always be repaired. We cannot assume space systems will have a low rate of random failures that can all be repaired with a few identical spares. New untried systems usually have a high initial failure rate, called infant mortality, due to errors in requirements, design, parts, materials, and operations planning. These problems can cause groups of related failures called Common Cause Failures (CCFs). The practical definition of a CCF is any failure mode that cannot be cured using identical redundant systems or spare parts. Systems with CCFs may fail repeatedly for the same reason. Can a life support system be kept operating on the way to Mars using only redundant systems and spare parts? The failure history of International Space Station (ISS) life support systems suggests that CCFs are likely to occur and will probably require design changes rather than being reparable with spare parts.

Mars↗

Spectrum Preprocessing in the OPAD System

To determine the readiness of a rocket engine, and facilitate decisions on continued use of the engine before servicing is required, high-resolution optical spectrometers are used to acquire spectra from the exhaust plume. Such instruments are in place at the Technology Test Bed (TTB) stand at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the A1 stand at Stennis Space Center (SSC). The optical spectrometers in place have a wide wavelength range covering the visible and near-infrared regions, taking approximately 8000 measurements at about one Angstrom spacing every half second. In the early stages of this work, data analysis was done manually. A simple spectral model produced a theoretical spectrum for given amount of elements and an operator visually matched the theoretical and real spectra. Currently, extensive software is being developed to receive data from the spectrometer and automatically generate an estimate of element amounts in the plume. It will result in fast and reliable analysis, with the capability of real-time performance. This software is the result of efforts of several groups but mainly it has been developed and used by scientists and combustion engineers, in their effort of understanding the underlying physical processes and phenomena and creating visualization and report generation facilities. Most of the software has been developed using the IDL language and programming environment which allows for extensive data visualization. Although this environment has been very beneficial, the resulting programs execute very slowly and are not easily portable to more popular, real-time environments. The need for portability and high speed of execution is becoming more apparent as the software matures moving out of the experimentation stage and into the production stage where ease of use and short response time are the most desirable features. The purpose of the work described here is to assist the scientists who developed the original IDL-based version in the conversion of the software into the real-time, production version. Specifically, a section of the software devoted to the preprocessing of the spectra has been converted into the C language. In addition, parts of this software which may be improved have been identified, and recommendations are given to improve the functionality and ease of use of the new version.

Katsinis, Constantine↗

Component Failure R&D

This presentation is to establish a scientific basis for risk and reliability analysis through integrated work with data collection, model development, and stakeholder engagement.

availability↗

Solar vs. Fission Surface Power for Mars

A multi-discipline team of experts from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) developed Mars surface power system point design solutions for two conceptual missions. The primary goal of this study was to compare the relative merits of solar- versus fission-powered versions of each surface mission. First, the team compared three different solar power options against a fission power system concept for a sub-scale, uncrewed demonstration mission. The 4.5 meter (m) diameter pathfinder lander's primary mission would be to demonstrate Mars entry, descent, and landing techniques. Once on the Martian surface, the lander's In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) payload would demonstrate liquid oxygen propellant production using atmospheric resources. For the purpose of this exercise, location was assumed to be at the Martian equator. The three solar concepts considered included a system that only operated during daylight hours (at roughly half the daily propellant production rate of a round-the-clock fission design), a battery-augmented system that operated through the night (matching the fission concept's propellant production rate), and a system that operated only during daylight, but at a higher rate (again, matching the fission concept's propellant production rate). Including 30% mass growth allowance, total payload masses for the three solar concepts ranged from 1,116 to 2,396 kg, versus the 2,686 kg fission power scheme. However, solar power masses are expected to approach or exceed the fission payload mass at landing sites further from the equator, making landing site selection a key driver in the final power system decision. The team also noted that detailed reliability analysis should be performed on daytime-only solar power schemes to assess potential issues with frequent ISRU system on/off cycling. Next, the team developed a solar-powered point design solution for a conceptual four-crew, 500-day surface mission consisting of up to four landers per crewed expedition mission. Unlike the demonstration mission, a lengthy power outage due to the global dust storms that are known to occur on Mars would pose a safety hazard to a crewed mission. A similar fission versus solar power trade study performed by NASA in 2007 concluded that fission power was more reliable-with a much lower mass penalty-than solar power for this application. However, recent advances in solar cell and energy storage technologies and changes in operational assumptions prompted NASA to revisit the analysis. For the purpose of this exercise a particular landing site at Jezero Crater, located at 18o north latitude, was assumed. A fission power system consisting of four each 10 kW Kilopower fission reactors was compared to a distributed network of Orion-derived Ultraflex solar arrays and Lithium ion batteries mounted on every lander. The team found that a solar power system mass of about 9,800 kg would provide the 22 kilowatts (kW) keep-alive power needed to survive a dust storm lasting up to 120-days at average optical depth of 5, and 35 kW peak power for normal operations under clear skies. Although this is less than half the mass estimated during the 2007 work (which assumed latitudes up to 30o) it is still more than the 7,000 kg mass of the fission system which provides full power regardless of dust storm conditions.

Rucker, Michelle A.↗

Utilizing the SACADA system to collect simulator training data to inform human reliability analyses - 169

Lack of appropriate human performance data for the development of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods has been identified as a key issue contributing to the method-to-method variability among the HRA methods. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) worked with domain experts to develop the Scenario Authoring, Characterization, and Debriefing Application (SACADA) system to collect nuclear power plants' licensed operator simulator training and examination data to inform HRA. In the past two decades, significant improvements in understanding and modelling human performance in HRA have affected the perspectives of the types of data to be collected for HRA. A significant change is that human performance is strongly dependent on the context of the tasks to be performed. To incorporate this understanding, the SACADA data taxonomy collects the context and actual performance information of the training objective elements (TOEs) in nuclear plant operator simulator training. This provides a framework consistent with HRA to use context to estimate human error probabilities. It is recognized that measuring crew performance is equally important as improving operator training. SACADA is designed to support the nuclear trainers in capturing this important information that is used to identify training weaknesses and drive continuous improvement. This paper discusses the SACADA taxonomy, the SACADA system's functions, and the supporting software design to enable the SACADA system to be practically implemented in the nuclear power plants' operator simulator training program to collect data for tracking operator performance and HRA analysis. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Facile carrier-assisted targeted mass spectrometric approach for proteomic analysis of low numbers of mammalian cells

There is an unmet technical challenge for mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomic analysis of single mammalian cells. Quantitative proteomic analysis of single cells has been previously achieved by antibody-based immunoassays but is limited by the availability of high-quality antibodies. Herein we report a facile targeted MS-based proteomics method, termed cPRISM-SRM (carrier-assisted high-pressure, high-resolution separations with intelligent selection and multiplexing coupled to selected reaction monitoring), for reliable analysis of low numbers of mammalian cells. The method capitalizes on using “carrier protein” to assist processing of low numbers of cells with minimal loss, high-resolution PRISM separation for target peptide enrichment, and sensitive SRM for protein quantification. We have demonstrated that cPRISM-SRM has sufficient sensitivity to quantify proteins expressed at ≥200,000 copies per cell at the single-cell level and ≥3000 copies per cell in 100 mammalian cells. We envision that with further improvement cPRISM-SRM has the potential to move toward targeted MS-based single-cell proteomics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis

A systematic and efficient method for probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis is proposed. The method is based on a most-probable-point-locus concept. The locus is obtained iteratively where the initial locus is determined using the linear approximation of the service life N(X) function about the mean values of the random variables X. Linear and quadratic approximations of N(X) are established locally at the most probable points, and the reliability analysis methods are used to compute the cumulative probabilities. By using two examples, the proposed method is demonstrated to be efficient and accurate. One example involved a random loading and N(X) was computed using cycle-by-cycle integration. The method is general and can be applied to other performance functions. It is particularly suitable when the computation of the performance function is time consuming such that Monte Carlo simulation is prohibitively costly.

Wu, Y.-T.↗

Preliminary Integrated Safety Analysis of Synthetic Vision Conducted

The goal of the NASA Aviation Safety Program is to develop and demonstrate technologies that could help reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of 5 by the year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by the year 2022. Integrated safety analysis of day-to-day operations and risks within those operations will provide an understanding of the Aviation Safety Program portfolio beyond what is now available. Synthetic vision is the first of the Aviation Safety Program technologies that has been analyzed by the Logistics Management Institute under a contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. These synthetic vision analyses include both a reliability analysis and a computer simulation model.

Reveley, Mary S.↗

Periods of High Intensity Solar Proton Flux

Analysis is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Xapsos, Michael A.↗

A study on the assessment criteria of DHC in PWR spent fuel

One of the major degradation mechanisms of PWR spent fuel cladding is delayed hydride cracking (DHC), which can activate within a relatively low temperature range. Its maximum crack growth rate is estimated to be within the range of 10{sup -7} m/s, at which the cladding can rupture in 1 to 2 years during dry storage. For this reason, it is essential to prevent DHC crack growth itself, but most of the existing DHC studies have been focused on the crack growth rate. In this regard, the values and characteristics of the threshold stress intensity factor (K{sub IH}) for PWR Zircaloy-4 cladding were described. Based on the limited existing test results and analysis, the experimentally measured K{sub IH} were compared with the predicted K{sub IH}. The comparison shows that the predicted values are much lower than the measured ones and both theoretical estimation and measured values of K{sub IH} increase as the temperature increases. The possibilities of degradation by DHC were also discussed during long-term dry storage. For a more reliable analysis, additional information on a pre-existing crack of spent fuel is needed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Analysis of the 60-Hz power system at KSC: The Orsino substation

An analysis of the Orsino Substation, a component (50 percent) of the 60-Hertz electric power system at the Kennedy Space Center, is presented. Presented here are separate single-line diagrams of the sixteen feeder circuits to permit easy access to information on the individual feeders for future planning. The load condition of each feeder and load break switch are presented and a heuristic reliability analysis of the system is performed. Information is given about the system fashion useful for decision making purposes. The beauty of it is in the simplified manner by which information about the system can be obtained.

Kalu, Alex O.↗

Fatigue crack growth reliability by probabilistic finite elements

Fusion of the probabilistic finite-element method and reliability analysis for probabilistic fatigue-crack growth is presented. A comprehensive method for determining the probability of fatigue failure for mixed-mode cyclic loading is also presented. The loading is mixed-mode with randomness in the initial and final crack lengths, initial crack angle and position, material properties, crack-growth law, crack-direction law, and loading. The methodology consists of calculating the reliability index via an optimization procedure which is used to calculate the probability of fatigue failure. Performance of the methodology presented is demonstrated on a classical mode-I fatigue problem.

Besterfield, Glen H.↗

Chapter 8: Life-Cycle Testing and Analysis

Prior to a spacecraft launch, program mission assurance standards dictate that the flight battery power system should comply with mission requirements under the intended operating conditions. Ground life cycle testing (LCT) combined with an analysis on the electrical power system (EPS) battery is an empirical method used to demonstrate compliance to satellite service life requirements. The LCT compliance method adopted by the aerospace industry is based on demonstrating a space battery's life expectancy as a part of battery qualification. Real-time cell and lithium-ion battery (LIB) LCT data are commonly used for model inputs to EPS power and energy balance analyses, in LIB reliability analysis estimates, and to support on-orbit spacecraft mission life extension opportunities. This chapter describes the LCT planning steps, process approach, and analysis techniques commonly used to qualify space LIB power systems.

accelerated aging↗

Comparing Compressed and Full-Modeling analyses with FOLPS: implications for DESI 2024 and beyond

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will provide unprecedented information about the large-scale structure of our Universe. In this work, we study the robustness of the theoretical modelling of the power spectrum of F OLPS , a novel effective field theory-based package for evaluating the redshift space power spectrum in the presence of massive neutrinos. We perform this validation by fitting the AbacusSummit high-accuracy N -body simulations for Luminous Red Galaxies, Emission Line Galaxies and Quasar tracers, calibrated to describe DESI observations. We quantify the potential systematic error budget of F OLPS finding that the modelling errors are fully sub-dominant for the DESI statistical precision within the studied range of scales. Additionally, we study two complementary approaches to fit and analyse the power spectrum data, one based on direct Full-Modelling fits and the other on the ShapeFit compression variables, both resulting in very good agreement in precision and accuracy. In each of these approaches, we study a set of potential systematic errors induced by several assumptions, such as the choice of template cosmology, the effect of prior choice in the nuisance parameters of the model, or the range of scales used in the analysis. Furthermore, we show how opening up the parameter space beyond the vanilla ΛCDM model affects the DESI observables. These studies include the addition of massive neutrinos, spatial curvature, and dark energy equation of state. We also examine how relaxing the usual Cosmic Microwave Background and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis priors on the primordial spectral index and the baryonic matter abundance, respectively, impacts the inference on the rest of the parameters of interest. This paper pathways towards performing a robust and reliable analysis of the shape of the power spectrum of DESI galaxy and quasar clustering using F OLPS .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Communications Reliability for Vehicle Grid Integration

Electric Vehicles (EVs) adoption rate has been steadily increasing in the US leading to a growing number of charging stations including faster DC (Direct Current) chargers and slower Level 1 and Level 2 AC (Alternating Current) chargers. This increase in demand for electricity is further exacerbated by recent developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, advanced manufacturing, and digitization. These factors will require electric utilities to upgrade their infrastructure to keep up with the increasing electrical demand (especially during peak hours). An easy way to counteract the need for these upgrades is to shift a major chunk of active charge sessions (durations where there is energy transfer from charger to EV's propulsion battery) to off-peak hours thereby flattening the load curve and making the infrastructure more resilient. This concept is known as Smart Charge Management (SCM). EV owners also benefit from SCM since it lowers their charging costs and consequently their transportation costs by prioritizing charging during off-peak hours. SCM takes advantage of EV's capability to act as a controllable load or DER (Distributed Energy Resource). This report summarizes the reliability analysis performed on the communication required for two of these SCM use-cases. This analysis only focuses on SCM strategies for unidirectional charging (energy transfer from EVSE to EV or V1G) and not bidirectional charging.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Probabilistic Analysis and Density Parameter Estimation Within Nessus

This NASA educational grant has the goal of promoting probabilistic analysis methods to undergraduate and graduate UTSA engineering students. Two undergraduate-level and one graduate-level course were offered at UTSA providing a large number of students exposure to and experience in probabilistic techniques. The grant provided two research engineers from Southwest Research Institute the opportunity to teach these courses at UTSA, thereby exposing a large number of students to practical applications of probabilistic methods and state-of-the-art computational methods. In classroom activities, students were introduced to the NESSUS computer program, which embodies many algorithms in probabilistic simulation and reliability analysis. Because the NESSUS program is used at UTSA in both student research projects and selected courses, a student version of a NESSUS manual has been revised and improved, with additional example problems being added to expand the scope of the example application problems. This report documents two research accomplishments in the integration of a new sampling algorithm into NESSUS and in the testing of the new algorithm. The new Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) subroutines use the latest NESSUS input file format and specific files for writing output. The LHS subroutines are called out early in the program so that no unnecessary calculations are performed. Proper correlation between sets of multidimensional coordinates can be obtained by using NESSUS' LHS capabilities. Finally, two types of correlation are written to the appropriate output file. The program enhancement was tested by repeatedly estimating the mean, standard deviation, and 99th percentile of four different responses using Monte Carlo (MC) and LHS. These test cases, put forth by the Society of Automotive Engineers, are used to compare probabilistic methods. For all test cases, it is shown that LHS has a lower estimation error than MC when used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, and 99th percentile of the four responses at the 50 percent confidence level and using the same number of response evaluations for each method. In addition, LHS requires fewer calculations than MC in order to be 99.7 percent confident that a single mean, standard deviation, or 99th percentile estimate will be within at most 3 percent of the true value of the each parameter. Again, this is shown for all of the test cases studied. For that reason it can be said that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ; furthermore, the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

Godines, Cody R.↗

Proportional and scale change models to project failures of mechanical components with applications to space station

In this paper we develop the mathematical theory of proportional and scale change models to perform reliability analysis. The results obtained will be applied for the Reaction Control System (RCS) thruster valves on an orbiter. With the advent of extended EVA's associated with PROX OPS (ISSA & MIR), and docking, the loss of a thruster valve now takes on an expanded safety significance. Previous studies assume a homogeneous population of components with each component having the same failure rate. However, as various components experience different stresses and are exposed to different environments, their failure rates change with time. In this paper we model the reliability of a thruster valves by treating these valves as a censored repairable system. The model for each valve will take the form of a nonhomogeneous process with the intensity function that is either treated as a proportional hazard model, or a scale change random effects hazard model. Each component has an associated z, an independent realization of the random variable Z from a distribution G(z). This unobserved quantity z can be used to describe heterogeneity systematically. For various models methods for estimating the model parameters using censored data will be developed. Available field data (from previously flown flights) is from non-renewable systems. The estimated failure rate using such data will need to be modified for renewable systems such as thruster valve.

Taneja, Vidya S.↗