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At least 523 records · Page 29

Modeling Constellation Virtual Missions Using the Vdot(Trademark) Process Management Tool

The authors have identified a software tool suite that will support NASA's Virtual Mission (VM) effort. This is accomplished by transforming a spreadsheet database of mission events, task inputs and outputs, timelines, and organizations into process visualization tools and a Vdot process management model that includes embedded analysis software as well as requirements and information related to data manipulation and transfer. This paper describes the progress to date, and the application of the Virtual Mission to not only Constellation but to other architectures, and the pertinence to other aerospace applications. Vdot s intuitive visual interface brings VMs to life by turning static, paper-based processes into active, electronic processes that can be deployed, executed, managed, verified, and continuously improved. A VM can be executed using a computer-based, human-in-the-loop, real-time format, under the direction and control of the NASA VM Manager. Engineers in the various disciplines will not have to be Vdot-proficient but rather can fill out on-line, Excel-type databases with the mission information discussed above. The author s tool suite converts this database into several process visualization tools for review and into Microsoft Project, which can be imported directly into Vdot. Many tools can be embedded directly into Vdot, and when the necessary data/information is received from a preceding task, the analysis can be initiated automatically. Other NASA analysis tools are too complex for this process but Vdot automatically notifies the tool user that the data has been received and analysis can begin. The VM can be simulated from end-to-end using the author s tool suite. The planned approach for the Vdot-based process simulation is to generate the process model from a database; other advantages of this semi-automated approach are the participants can be geographically remote and after refining the process models via the human-in-the-loop simulation, the system can evolve into a process management server for the actual process.

Hardy, Roger↗

Search for long-lived, massive particles in events with displaced vertices and multiple jets in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for long-lived particles decaying into hadrons is presented. The analysis uses 139 fb –1 of $pp$ collision data collected at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the LHC using events that contain multiple energetic jets and a displaced vertex. The search employs dedicated reconstruction techniques that significantly increase the sensitivity to longlived particles decaying in the ATLAS inner detector. Background estimates for Standard Model processes and instrumental effects are extracted from data. The observed event yields are compatible with those expected from background processes. The results are used to set limits at 95% confidence level on model-independent cross sections for processes beyond the Standard Model, and on scenarios with pair-production of supersymmetric particles with long-lived electroweakinos that decay via a small $R$-parity-violating coupling. The pair-production of electroweakinos with masses below 1.5 TeV is excluded for mean proper lifetimes in the range from 0.03 ns to 1 ns. When produced in the decay of $m$($\tilde{g}$) = 2.4 TeV gluinos, electroweakinos with $m$($\tilde{χ}_{1}^{0}$) = 1.5 TeV are excluded with lifetimes in the range of 0.02 ns to 4 ns.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Convolutional Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process and its Application to Wildfire Ignition Risk Quantification for Power Delivery Networks

To quantify wildfire ignition risks on power delivery networks, the current practice predominantly relies on the empirically calculated fire danger indices, which may not well capture the effects of dynamically changing environmental factors. This article proposes a spatio-temporal point process model, known as the Convolutional Non-homogeneous Poisson Process (cNHPP), and applies the model to quantify wildfire ignition risks for power delivery networks. The proposed model captures both the current (i.e., instantaneous) and cumulative (i.e., historical) effects of key environmental processes (i.e., covariates) on wildfire risks, as well as the spatio-temporal dependency among different segments of the power delivery network. The computation and interpretation of the intensity function are thoroughly investigated. We apply the proposed approach to estimate wildfire ignition risks on major transmission lines in California, using historical fire data, meteorological and vegetation data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Here, a comprehensive comparison study is performed to show the applicability and predictive capability of the proposed approach.

Non-homogeneous Poisson Process↗

On Residual Stresses and Reference Temperatures in Thermomechanical Simulations of Photovoltaic Modules Using the Finite Element Method

Thermomechanical simulation of photovoltaic (PV) modules using the finite element method (FEM) is a useful tool to evaluate module design features in terms of structural integrity, reliability, and durability. One of the main challenges in the numerical modeling of a PV module is the incorporation of residual stresses induced by the manufacturing process. Modeling assumptions and abstractions are necessary to limit the model complexity and reduce the computational time. However, oversimplifications and incorrect assumptions can lead to erroneous numerical results. Unfortunately, much simulation work still neglects process-induced stresses. This can lead to incorrect predictions of the stress-strain history and erroneous conclusions during the design process. In this work, we review current modeling practices for incorporating process-induced stresses, and contrast numerical models that consider residual stresses with those that neglect them. We find that the simulation objective and available material properties dictate which process steps need to be modeled, and explore in depth the modeling of residual stresses induced by the lamination process. We demonstrate that a simplified cooldown procedure at the beginning of the simulation can increase the model accuracy and discuss appropriate choices for starting and reference temperatures in the finite element model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Scalable Data-Intensive Geocomputation: A Design for Real-Time Continental Flood Inundation Mapping

The convergence of data-intensive and extreme-scale computing enables an integrated software and data ecosystem for scientific discovery. Developments in this realm will fuel transformative research in data-driven interdisciplinary domains. Geocomputation provides computing paradigms in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for interactive computing of geographic data, processes, models, and maps. Because GIS is data-driven, the computational scalability of a geocomputation workflow is directly related to the scale of the GIS data layers, their resolution and extent, as well as the velocity of the geo-located data streams to be processed. Unique in high user interactivity and low end-to-end latency requirements, geocomputation applications will dramatically benefit from the convergence of high-end data analytics (HDA) and high-performance computing (HPC). The application level challenge, however, is to identify and eliminate computational bottlenecks that arise along a geocomputation workflow. Indeed, poor scalability at any of the workflow components is detrimental to the entire end-to-end pipeline. Here, we study a large geocomputation use case in flood inundation mapping that handles multiple national-scale geospatial datasets and targets low end-to-end latency. We discuss benefits and challenges for harnessing both HDA and HPC for data-intensive geospatial data processing and intensive numerical modeling of geographic processes. We propose an HDA+HPC geocomputation architecture design that couples HDA (e.g., Spark)-based spatial data handling and HPC-based parallel data modeling. Key techniques for coupling HDA and HPC to bridge the two different software stacks are reviewed and discussed.

Liu, Yan↗

The Additive Manufacturing Moment Measure (AM3) Approach to Predictions of Solid Cooling Rate and Time Above Melt

Qualification of a laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing (LPBF-AM) process requires knowledge of the multi-scale material physics during the process, per part. As the LPBF-AM build occurs, each moment is influenced by the process history. Knowledge of the build sequence can be used to generate a discretized time-space-condition point field that when coupled with a nearest neighbors’ calculation results in a generalized and fully parallel process model computation. This GPU accelerated approach was developed for part-scale analysis of build files along with in-situ process monitoring sensor data and is termed the “Additive Manufacturing Moment Measure” (AM3). The AM3 approach will be presented and then used to evaluate an AM Bench relevant geometry with synchronized in-situ process data, ex-situ nondestructive evaluation, and optical microscopy observations. These comparisons permit a better understanding of how the process actions can affect the LPBF-AM build quality and the signals generated during in-situ process monitoring.

Additive Manufacturing↗

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems FY20 Report

This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2020 (FY20) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE). The R&D activities focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc. The FY20 EBS activities involved not only modeling and analysis work, but experimental work as well. Despite delays to some planned activities due to COVID-19 precautions, progress was made during FY20 in multiple research areas and documented in this report as follows: (1) EBS Task Force: Task 9/FEBEX Modeling Final Report: Thermo-Hydrological Modeling with PFLOTRAN, (2) preliminary sensitivity analysis for the FEBEX in-situ heater test, (3) cement-carbonate rock interaction under saturated conditions: from laboratory to modeling, (4) hydrothermal experiments, (5) progress on investigating the high temperature behavior of the uranyl-carbonate complexes, (6) in-situ and electrochemical work for model validation, (7) investigation of the impact of high temperature on EBS bentonite with THMC modeling, (8) sorption and diffusion experiments on bentonite, (9) chemical controls on montmorillonite structure and swelling pressure, (10) microscopic origins of coupled transport processes in bentonite, (11) understanding the THMC evolution of bentonite in FEBEX-DP—coupled THMC modeling, (12) modeling in support of HotBENT, an experiment studying the effects of high temperatures on clay buffers/near-field, and (13) high temperature heating and hydration column test on bentonite.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Adaptive Sampling of Time Series During Remote Exploration

This work deals with the challenge of online adaptive data collection in a time series. A remote sensor or explorer agent adapts its rate of data collection in order to track anomalous events while obeying constraints on time and power. This problem is challenging because the agent has limited visibility (all its datapoints lie in the past) and limited control (it can only decide when to collect its next datapoint). This problem is treated from an information-theoretic perspective, fitting a probabilistic model to collected data and optimizing the future sampling strategy to maximize information gain. The performance characteristics of stationary and nonstationary Gaussian process models are compared. Self-throttling sensors could benefit environmental sensor networks and monitoring as well as robotic exploration. Explorer agents can improve performance by adjusting their data collection rate, preserving scarce power or bandwidth resources during uninteresting times while fully covering anomalous events of interest. For example, a remote earthquake sensor could conserve power by limiting its measurements during normal conditions and increasing its cadence during rare earthquake events. A similar capability could improve sensor platforms traversing a fixed trajectory, such as an exploration rover transect or a deep space flyby. These agents can adapt observation times to improve sample coverage during moments of rapid change. An adaptive sampling approach couples sensor autonomy, instrument interpretation, and sampling. The challenge is addressed as an active learning problem, which already has extensive theoretical treatment in the statistics and machine learning literature. A statistical Gaussian process (GP) model is employed to guide sample decisions that maximize information gain. Nonsta tion - ary (e.g., time-varying) covariance relationships permit the system to represent and track local anomalies, in contrast with current GP approaches. Most common GP models are stationary, e.g., the covariance relationships are time-invariant. In such cases, information gain is independent of previously collected data, and the optimal solution can always be computed in advance. Information-optimal sampling of a stationary GP time series thus reduces to even spacing, and such models are not appropriate for tracking localized anomalies. Additionally, GP model inference can be computationally expensive.

Thompson, David R.↗

Modeling of fluidized bed silicon deposition process

The model is intended for use as a means of improving fluidized bed reactor design and for the formulation of the research program in support of the contracts of Silicon Material Task for the development of the fluidized bed silicon deposition process. A computer program derived from the simple modeling is also described. Results of some sample calculations using the computer program are shown.

Kim, K.↗

GCSS Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project

The GCSS Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2) is conducting a systematic comparison and evaluation of cirrus cloud models. This fundamental activity seeks to support the improvement of models used for climate simulation and numerical weather prediction through assessment and improvement of the "process" models underlying parametric treatments of cirrus cloud processes in large-scale models. The WG2 Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project is an initial comparison of cirrus cloud simulations by a variety of cloud models for a series of idealized situations with relatively simple initial conditions and forcing. The models (16) represent the state-of-the-art and include 3-dimensional large eddy simulation (LES) models, two-dimensional cloud resolving models (CRMs), and single column model (SCM) versions of GCMs. The model microphysical components are similarly varied, ranging from single-moment bulk (relative humidity) schemes to fully size-resolved (bin) treatments where ice crystal growth is explicitly calculated. Radiative processes are included in the physics package of each model. The baseline simulations include "warm" and "cold" cirrus cases where cloud top initially occurs at about -47C and -66C, respectively. All simulations are for nighttime conditions (no solar radiation) where the cloud is generated in an ice supersaturated layer, about 1 km in depth, with an ice pseudoadiabatic thermal stratification (neutral). Continuing cloud formation is forced via an imposed diabatic cooling representing a 3 cm/s uplift over a 4-hour time span followed by a 2-hour dissipation stage with no cooling. Variations of these baseline cases include no-radiation and stable-thermal-stratification cases. Preliminary results indicated the great importance of ice crystal fallout in determining even the gross cloud characteristics, such as average vertically-integrated ice water path (IWP). Significant inter-model differences were found. Ice water fall speed is directly related to the shape of the particle size distribution and the habits of the ice crystal population, whether assumed or explicitly calculated. In order to isolate the fall speed effect from that of the associated ice crystal population, simulations were also performed where ice water fall speed was set to the same constant value everywhere in each model. Values of 20 and 60 cm/s were assumed. Current results of the project will be described and implications will be drawn. In particular, this exercise is found to strongly focus the definition of issues resulting in observed inter-model differences and to suggest possible strategies for observational validation of the models. The next step in this project is to perform similar comparisons for well observed case studies with sufficient high quality data to adequately define model initiation and forcing specifications and to support quantitative validation of the results.

Starr, David OC.↗

Numerical Modeling of High-Temperature Corrosion Processes

Numerical modeling of the diffusional transport associated with high-temperature corrosion processes is reviewed. These corrosion processes include external scale formation and internal subscale formation during oxidation, coating degradation by oxidation and substrate interdiffusion, carburization, sulfidation and nitridation. The studies that are reviewed cover such complexities as concentration-dependent diffusivities, cross-term effects in ternary alloys, and internal precipitation where several compounds of the same element form (e.g., carbides of Cr) or several compounds exist simultaneously (e.g., carbides containing varying amounts of Ni, Cr, Fe or Mo). In addition, the studies involve a variety of boundary conditions that vary with time and temperature. Finite-difference (F-D) techniques have been applied almost exclusively to model either the solute or corrodant transport in each of these studies. Hence, the paper first reviews the use of F-D techniques to develop solutions to the diffusion equations with various boundary conditions appropriate to high-temperature corrosion processes. The bulk of the paper then reviews various F-D modeling studies of diffusional transport associated with high-temperature corrosion.

Nesbitt, James A.↗

Hybrid Chemo-Mechanical Plastics Recycling: Solvent-free, High-speed Reactive Extrusion of Low-Density Polyethylene

Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) is ubiquitous in the packaging industry due to its flexibility, toughness, and low cost. However, it is typically contaminated with other materials, seriously limiting options for mechanical recycling. Interest in chemical recycling techniques such as pyrolysis and hydrothermal liquefaction is growing, but most of these processes face technoeconomic challenges that have limited commercial deployment. We present a hybrid chemo-mechanical approach using reactive twin-screw extrusion (TSE) for tailoring the molecular weight and chain structure of reclaimed LDPE. Two types of zeolite catalysts at several loading levels were evaluated over a range of processing conditions. Structural, thermal, and rheological properties of the extruded samples were investigated and compared to virgin LDPE and LDPE extruded without the catalyst. A nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopic technique was used to investigate changes in the structure of the polymer. LDPE extruded with microporous y-zeolite showed lower degradation temperature and increased short chain branching. Mesoporous MCM-41 also induced increased branching but had no effect on degradation temperature. The theoretical mechanical energy input for the chemical modification was calculated using process modeling. The demonstrated hybrid reactive extrusion process provides a potential low-cost, simple approach for repurposing LDPE-based flexible packaging as coatings and adhesives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Adaptation Strategies Strongly Reduce the Future Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Crop Yields

Abstract Simulations of crop yield due to climate change vary widely between models, locations, species, management strategies, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To understand how climate and adaptation affects yield change, we developed a meta‐model based on 8703 site‐level process‐model simulations of yield with different future adaptation strategies and climate scenarios for maize, rice, wheat and soybean. We tested 10 statistical models, including some machine learning models, to predict the percentage change in projected future yield relative to the baseline period (2000–2010) as a function of explanatory variables related to adaptation strategy and climate change. We used the best model to produce global maps of yield change for the RCP4.5 scenario and identify the most influential variables affecting yield change using Shapley additive explanations. For most locations, adaptation was the most influential factor determining the projected yield change for maize, rice and wheat. Without adaptation under RCP4.5, all crops are expected to experience average global yield losses of 6%–21%. Adaptation alleviates this average projected loss by 1–13 percentage points. Maize was most responsive to adaptive practices with a projected mean yield loss of −21% [range across locations: −63%, +3.7%] without adaptation and −7.5% [range: −46%, +13%] with adaptation. For maize and rice, irrigation method and cultivar choice were the adaptation types predicted to most prevent large yield losses, respectively. When adaptation practices are applied, some areas are predicted to experience yield gains, especially at northern high latitudes. These results reveal the critical importance of implementing adequate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating the cost and energy demand of producing lithium manganese oxide for Li-ion batteries

Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO) is one of the important cathode active materials used in lithium ion batteries of several electric vehicles. In this paper, the production of LMO cathode material for use in lithium-ion batteries is studied. Spreadsheet-based process models have been set up to estimate and analyze the factors affecting the cost of manufacturing, the energy demand, and the environmental impact. Two processes based on the solid-state synthesis method and a sol-gel method have been explored. Results show that the solid-state process is more cost-effective because of its lower cost of raw materials. The production cost for a solid-state process is $7 kg -1 and requires 6 kWh·kg -1 of energy. The pack level cost of electric vehicle battery using LMO as a primary active material is studied as a function of LMO production cost and other parameters. The potential for reducing the cost of automotive batteries to $100 per kWh is explored in terms of LMO price and plant production volume (economy of scale), using Argonne’s BatPaC spreadsheet tool.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Modeling Disorder in Pyrochlores and Other Anion-Deficient Fluorite Structural Derivative Oxides

Their very flexible chemistry gives oxide materials a richness in functionality and wide technological application. A specific group of oxides that have a structure related to fluorite but with less oxygen, termed anion-deficient fluorite structural derivatives and with pyrochlores being the most notable example, has been shown to exhibit a diversity of useful properties. For example, the possibility to undergo a transition from an ordered to disordered state allows these oxides to have high radiation tolerance. Atomistic-scale calculations in the form of molecular dynamics (MD) and density functional theory (DFT) have been extensively used to understand what drives this order/disorder transition. Here we give a brief overview of how atomistic-scale calculations are utilized in modeling disorder in pyrochlores and other anion-deficient fluorite structural derivatives. We discuss the modeling process from simple point defects to completely disordered structures, the dynamics during the disordering process, and the use of mathematical models to generate ordered solid-solution configurations. We also attempt to identify the challenges in modeling short range order and discuss future directions to more comprehensive models of the disordered structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The physics of comets

This volume of the 'Fundamentals of Cosmic Physics' is concerned with the physics of comets. Aspects regarding the nucleus are discussed, taking into account observations, radius and albedo, mass, rotation, splitting and disruption, the temperature and sublimation of the cometary nucleus, the chemical composition, the electrostatic charging of the cometary nucleus, and the structure and evolution of the cometary nucleus. Other topics explored are related to the atmosphere and its interaction with the solar wind, the plasma tail, and the dust tail. Attention is given to excitation mechanisms, atmospheric abundances and production rates, chemical models of the inner coma, collisional processes and the multifluid approach, radiative transfer, the ionization processes, models of the inner layer, the outer coma, acceleration mechanisms in the plasma tail, the structure of the plasma tail, the cometary magnetosphere, dust grain orbits, gas-dust interaction in the inner coma, and the nature of the cometary dust.

Mendis, D. A.↗