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At least 523 records · Page 29

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NASA NTRS2006

Distributed Computing Framework for Synthetic Radar Application

We are developing an extensible software framework, in response to Air Force and NASA needs for distributed computing facilities for a variety of radar applications. The objective of this work is to develop a Python based software framework, that is the framework elements of the middleware that allows developers to control processing flow on a grid in a distributed computing environment. Framework architectures to date allow developers to connect processing functions together as interchangeable objects, thereby allowing a data flow graph to be devised for a specific problem to be solved. The Pyre framework, developed at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), and now being used as the basis for next-generation radar processing at JPL, is a Python-based software framework. We have extended the Pyre framework to include new facilities to deploy processing components as services, including components that monitor and assess the state of the distributed network for eventual real-time control of grid resources.

synthetic aperture radar (SAR)↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Datascope to Enable Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO)

BACKGROUND: NASA has amassed sixty years of knowledge and experience relevant to maintenance of crew health and performance in low earth orbit. The Apollo Program introduced the importance of ensuring progressively autonomous operational capability. Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) will require a gradual shift in the balance of medical responsibility, management, and authority from terrestrial to space-based assets. Terrestrial assets will continue to be essential for pre-mission screening and planning in addition to maintenance of crew health and performance. However, new capabilities are needed to enable EIMO and the amount of data required to support these systems, and mitigate the impacts of data transmission delays and reduced bandwidth coupled with lack of cloud-like resources and on-board computing capacity that is currently unclear or operationally insufficient. OVERVIEW: The overall goal of EIMO is to develop artificial intelligence (AI)-based solutions to analyze crew health and performance data utilizing a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to provide crew medical officers (CMO) with the equivalent of real-time, on-board medical consults. The EIMO ecosystem is envisioned as a “system of systems” where embedded reference databases and real-time data streams from multiple input vectors continuously and seamlessly assess crew health and performance. EIMO will be designed to make recommendations to the CMO using multi-modal AI-based natural language processing and machine learning methods with interoperability to push/pull data within and between multiple vehicle and habitat architectures. DISCUSSION: Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during space missions and the challenges will become even greater during exploration missions. Just as each past program from Mercury to the International Space Station (ISS) required rethinking the interaction between ground-based controllers and space-based crew, so too will future missions to the Moon and Mars. While the NASA High-Performance Spaceflight Computing Processor project aims to increase computational capacity by 100 times over current spaceflight computers, the projected deliverable still lags considerably behind what will be needed to enable an AI-driven CDSS. Restrictions in processing speed and data storage capacity, coupled with transmission bottlenecks and delays, necessitate definition and optimization of an integrated data architecture to enable a progressively autonomous medical capability.

Medical operations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Process intensification approach to enhancing heat and mass transfer during drying: Ultrasonic (US) assisted drying of paper and board

Drying of paper and board is conventionally achieved through alternating conduction (steam-heated cylinders) and pocket convection (heated air over the paper web surface). These conventional drying systems rely heavily on steam from fossil fuels, resulting in inefficiencies, high energy usage, and thermal losses due to surface-driven mechanisms. Here, to address these challenges, an experimental system, with in-situ drying characteristics measurements, was developed to investigate process intensification using ultrasonic-based dewatering—a volumetric, pressure-driven acoustic energy system—integrated with conventional drying. The objectives of this study are to assess the impact of ultrasonics (US) on dewatering; compare performances to conventional drying systems; identify improvements in drying rate and energy use as a function of moisture content; and gain potential insights on heat and mass transfer mechanisms during US-assisted drying. US performance was evaluated across frequencies, power levels, pulp types, and basis weights. Results show that improvements to ultrasonic applications in conjunction with convection were 30-43% in drying rate and 20-35% in drying time over continuous and intermittent applications. When combined with conduction and convection, ultrasonics yielded up to 20% improvement in both rate and time and up to 20% reduction in energy consumption. Observations support a hypothesis of extension of the constant rate period due to improved capillary flow at higher moisture content and enhancing vapor diffusion and boundary layer disruption at lower moisture contents during falling rate period. These findings will inform future modeling, simulation, design and optimization of advanced drying systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spaceborne Passive-Microwave Hail Detection: Global Climatologies, Validation, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and vulnerable to nonmeteorological biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in a globally uniform way. We have developed a hail detection algorithm that leverages the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. We use this retrieval to construct global passive-microwave climatologies of severe hail using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and are working to extend into the pre-TRMM era to the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/(S)) data. Using coincident Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, we assessed this retrieval and several others in the literature for their effectiveness and regional variability. We find that this retrieval, which leverages a signature in the Minimum 19-GHz polarization corrected temperature (PCT) combined with the 37-GHz PCT depression normalized by tropopause height constrains the radar reflectivity most tightly, and gives the least appearance of regional biases compared to other passive-microwave approaches in the literature. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. We will discuss ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D. Bang↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗

NASA NTRS2008

First Human Testing of the Orion Atmosphere Revitalization Technology

An amine-based carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor sorbent in pressure-swing regenerable beds has been developed by Hamilton Sundstrand and baselined for the Orion Atmosphere Revitalization System (ARS). In two previous years at this conference, reports were presented on extensive Johnson Space Center (JSC) testing of the technology in a representative environment with simulated human metabolic loads. The next step in developmental testing at JSC was to replace the simulated humans with real humans; this testing was conducted in the spring of 2008. This first instance of human testing of a new Orion ARS technology included several cases in a sealed Orione-quivalent free volume and three cases using emergency breathing masks connected directly to the ARS loop. Significant test results presented in this paper include comparisons between the standard metabolic rates for CO2 and water vapor production published in Orion requirements documents and real-world rate ranges observed with human test subjects. Also included are qualitative assessments of process flow rate and closed-loop pressure-cycling tolerability while using the emergency masks. Recommendations for modifications to the Orion ARS design and operation, based on the test results, conclude the paper.

Lin, Amy↗

NASA NTRS2009

First Human Testing of the Orion Atmosphere Revitalization Technology

An amine-based carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor sorbent in pressure-swing regenerable beds has been developed by Hamilton Sundstrand and baselined for the Orion Atmosphere Revitalization System (ARS). In two previous years at this conference, reports were presented on extensive Johnson Space Center (JSC) testing of the technology in a representative environment with simulated human metabolic loads. The next step in developmental testing at JSC was to replace the simulated humans with real humans; this testing was conducted in the spring of 2008. This first instance of human testing of a new Orion ARS technology included several cases in a sealed Orion-equivalent free volume and three cases using emergency breathing masks connected directly to the ARS loop. Significant test results presented in this paper include comparisons between the standard metabolic rates for CO2 and water vapor production published in Orion requirements documents and real-world rate ranges observed with human test subjects. Also included are qualitative assessments of process flow rate and closed-loop pressure-cycling tolerability while using the emergency masks. Recommendations for modifications to the Orion ARS design and operation, based on the test results, conclude the paper.

Lin, Amy↗

NASA NTRS2010

Profiling Transboundary Aerosols over Taiwan and Assessing Their Radiative Effects

A synergistic process was developed to study the vertical distributions of aerosol optical properties and their effects on solar heating using data retrieved from ground-based radiation measurements and radiative transfer simulations. Continuous MPLNET and AERONET observations were made at a rural site in northern Taiwan from 2005 to 2007. The aerosol vertical extinction profiles retrieved from ground-based lidar measurements were categorized into near-surface, mixed, and two-layer transport types, representing 76% of all cases. Fine-mode (Angstrom exponent, alpha, approx.1.4) and moderate-absorbing aerosols (columnar single-scattering albedo approx.0.93, asymmetry factor approx.0.73 at 440 nm wavelength) dominated in this region. The column-integrated aerosol optical thickness at 500 nm (tau(sub 500nm)) ranges from 0.1 to 0.6 for the near-surface transport type, but can be doubled in the presence of upper-layer aerosol transport. We utilize aerosol radiative efficiency (ARE; the impact on solar radiation per unit change of tau(sub 500nm)) to quantify the radiative effects due to different vertical distributions of aerosols. Our results show that the ARE at the top-of-atmosphere (-23 W/ sq m) is weakly sensitive to aerosol vertical distributions confined in the lower troposphere. On the other hand, values of the ARE at the surface are -44.3, -40.6 and -39.7 W/sq m 38 for near-surface, mixed, and two-layer transport types, respectively. Further analyses show that the impact of aerosols on the vertical profile of solar heating is larger for the near-surface transport type than that of two-layer transport type. The impacts of aerosol on the surface radiation and the solar heating profiles have implications for the stability and convection in the lower troposphere.

Wang, Sheng-Hsiang↗

NASA NTRS2021

Assessing the Impact of Light/Shallow Precipitation Retrievals from Satellite-Based Observations Using Surface Radar and Micro Rain Radar Observations

The accurate representation of precipitation across the Earth’s surface is crucial to furthering our knowledge and understanding of the Earth System and its component processes. Precipitation poses a number of challenges, particularly due to the variability of precipitation over time and space and whether it falls as snow or rain. While conventional measures of precipitation are reasonably good at the location of their measurement, their distribution across the Earth’s surface is uneven with some regions having no surface measurements. Spaceborne sensors have the capability of providing regular observations across the Earth’s surface that can provide estimates of precipitation. However, the estimation of precipitation from satellite observations is not necessarily straightforward. Visible and/or infrared techniques rely upon imprecise cloud-top to surface precipitation relationships, while the sensitivity of passive microwave techniques to different precipitation types is not consistent. Active microwave (radar) observations provide the most direct satellite measurements of precipitation but cannot provide estimates close to the surface and are generally not sufficiently sensitive to resolve light precipitation. This is particularly problematic at mid to high latitudes, where light and/or shallow precipitation dominates. This paper compares measurements made by ground-based weather radars, Micro Rain Radars and the spaceborne Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar to study both light precipitation intensity and shallow precipitation occurrence and to assess their impact on satellites retrievals of precipitation at the mid to high latitudes.

light precipitation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating cosmological inference with Gaussian processes and neural networks – an application to LSST Y1 weak lensing and galaxy clustering

ABSTRACT Studying the impact of systematic effects, optimizing survey strategies, assessing tensions between different probes and exploring synergies of different data sets require a large number of simulated likelihood analyses, each of which cost thousands of CPU hours. In this paper, we present a method to accelerate cosmological inference using emulators based on Gaussian process regression and neural networks. We iteratively acquire training samples in regions of high posterior probability which enables accurate emulation of data vectors even in high dimensional parameter spaces. We showcase the performance of our emulator with a simulated 3×2 point analysis of LSST-Y1 with realistic theoretical and systematics modelling. We show that our emulator leads to high-fidelity posterior contours, with an order of magnitude speed-up. Most importantly, the trained emulator can be re-used for extremely fast impact and optimization studies. We demonstrate this feature by studying baryonic physics effects in LSST-Y1 3×2 point analyses where each one of our MCMC runs takes approximately 5 min. This technique enables future cosmological analyses to map out the science return as a function of analysis choices and survey strategy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of Waste Lignin Fractionation and Valorization Using the ALPHA Process

Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) were performed on the Aqueous Lignin Purification with Hot Agents (ALPHA) process, which is being investigated for the fractionation and purification of raw, bulk lignins recovered from cellulosic ethanol biorefineries or Kraft pulp mills. Here, ALPHA is proposed for the isolation of lignin from a corn stover-to-ethanol plant into purified low, medium, and high molecular weight (MW) fractions for producing polyurethane foam, activated carbon, and carbon fiber, respectively. A scenario analysis was conducted to determine the effect of ALPHA solvent choice on process economics and environmental performance. Solvent choice was found to have a significant impact on ALPHA, with a minimum selling price of 838/tonne with use of acetic acid vs 463/tonne with ethanol. Conversion of the lignin, processed with ethanol solvent, to high-value products yields 151 million/year in profit, which over 30 years results in a total net present value of 533 million. A life cycle assessment was conducted to determine the “gate-to-gate” greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption of the lignin-based products compared to fossil-based equivalents. In conclusion, a value allocation scenario was conducted and it was determined that products generated using the ALPHA process with ethanol have similar or lower greenhouse gas emissions than the same products from fossil feedstocks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Survey of Modeling and Simulation Techniques for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies Volume I – Predicting Initial Microstructures

This report summarizes the current state of modeling and simulation methods for predicting the initial structure and properties of material in components assembled using advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs). The report is the first volume in a two-volume series. This first volume focuses on predicting initial microstructures of AM material. The second volume discusses predicting material properties given the initial microstructure. The focus is on technologies of particular relevance to the design and manufacture of nuclear reactor components. The purpose of the report is to help develop the technical knowledge base to support regulatory decisions that will be needed to assess nuclear components manufactured with AMTs as these components are installed at nuclear power plants (NPPs). The report develops a list of AMTs of particular interest to the NRC and summarizes the key microstructural features and corresponding processing parameters relevant to each technology. Further sections describe available physically-based and data-driven prediction methods and survey widely available software tools. The report concludes with a summary of gaps that may be of particular interest to the NRC when evaluating modeling and simulation methods for AMTs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

RANGERS: Modeling Report on Integrity and Performance Assessment of Engineered Barrier Systems in a Salt Repository for HLW/SNF

The Engineered Barrier System (EBS) plays an important role in ensuring the long-term safety and containment of high-level waste (HLW) and spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in deep geological repositories in salt formation. As part of a multi-barrier system, the EBS works alongside the natural barrier, which is the salt formation itself and the technical barrier comprising the disposal casks. The primary function of the EBS is to maintain containment during a defined period until the backfill used in the repository made of crushed salt, develops its sealing capacity through compaction. Over the time, the backfill eventually compacts to a state of low porosity and permeability, acting as a long-term seal. However, until this process is complete, the EBS must retain its structural and functional integrity. Regulatory guidelines in Germany currently require the EBS to remain effective for up to next ice age, that is expected in 50,000 years. The significant hydro-geological and topographic changes expected during an ice age could make it impossible to accurately predict the hydro-chemical conditions within the repository system at that time. In response to these challenges, BGE TECHNOLOGY GmbH (BGE TEC) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) have jointly developed a comprehensive methodology for the design and safety assessment of engineered barrier systems within the scope of the RANGERS project. This methodology is tailored for repositories in salt formations. The developed methodology provides a structured approach for designing and assessing the performance of the EBS in salt-based repositories. It begins with defining a sealing concept based on the geological characteristics of the selected site and the overall repository design. The entire repository system, comprising the geological site, repository infrastructure, and EBS, is then subjected to a Features, Events, and Processes (FEP) analysis, focusing solely on those FEPs that affect the EBS. The derived FEPs help identify the loads and stresses acting on the EBS, which serve as the foundation for conducting an integrity assessment. This analysis helps predict the EBS’s evolution and performance over the regulatory time frame, feeding into integrated performance assessment simulations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Life Cycle Assessment of Innovative Carbon Dioxide Selective Membranes from Low Carbon Emission Sources: A Comparative Study

Carbon capture has been an important topic of the twenty-first century because of the elevating carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere. CO2 in the atmosphere is above 420 parts per million (ppm) as of 2022, 70 ppm higher than 50 years ago. Carbon capture research and development has mostly been centered around higher concentration flue gas streams. For example, flue gas streams from steel and cement industries have been largely ignored due to lower associated CO2 concentrations and higher capture and processing costs. Capture technologies such as solvent-based, adsorption-based, cryogenic distillation, and pressure-swing adsorption are under research, but many suffer from higher costs and life cycle impacts. Membrane-based capture processes are considered cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternatives. Over the past three decades, our research group at Idaho National Laboratory has led the development of several polyphosphazene polymer chemistries and has demonstrated their selectivity for CO2 over nitrogen (N2). Poly[bis((2-methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP) has shown the highest selectivity. A comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) was performed to determine the life cycle feasibility of the MEEP polymer material compared to other CO2-selective membranes and separation processes. The MEEP-based membrane processes emit at least 42% less equivalent CO2 than Pebax-based membrane processes. Similarly, MEEP-based membrane processes produce 34–72% less CO2 than conventional separation processes. In all studied categories, MEEP-based membranes report lower emissions than Pebax-based membranes and conventional separation processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cradle-to-grave life-cycle-assessment of dry-processed Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles

Maxwell-type dry processing has emerged as a promising manufacturing technology for high-areal-loading Li-ion battery electrodes, offering a significant advantage by eliminating the use of the toxic and costly NMP solvent. This study developed a cradle-to-grave life-cycle-assessment model to evaluate the environmental impacts of this innovative technology, benchmarking the results against the conventional NMP-based technique for a configured 42 kWh NMC622-graphite battery pack. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the dry-processing method merits a 4.8% lower energy consumption and achieves environmental impacts up to 47.5% lower in 12 out of 13 categories, highlighting its environmental benefits compared with the NMP-based manufacturing processes.

Electrode↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty quantification in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubular composites using global sensitivity analysis

Silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC f /SiC m ) tubes produced through the chemical vapor infiltration process have become a candidate cladding material in nuclear applications. The performance of this composite is influenced by many variables such as braiding angle, porosity, material properties, etc., which vary over a range of values due to the inherent fluctuations in the manufacturing process. In this study, the variability in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m composite has been quantified through multiscale finite element (FE) simulations, variable screening, and high-fidelity surrogate modeling. The key variables dominantly affecting the elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubes were identified using global sensitivity analysis. A surrogate to the high-fidelity FE-based model was used in Monte Carlo simulations to generate a hundred thousand samples from which the uncertainty in elastic constants was assessed. It turned out that the coefficient of variation was less than 10%.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of Pre‐Construction and Operational Wake Loss Estimates for Land‐Based Wind Plants

The overall bias between pre‐construction energy yield assessment (EYA) estimates of wind plant energy production and the achieved operational production is improving in the wind industry, but uncertainty remains high for individual wind plants. Wake effects within wind plants are one of the largest sources of energy loss considered in the EYA process, and previous work shows wake loss estimates to be a major source of disagreement among wind energy consultants who perform EYAs. To better understand the accuracy of wake loss predictions, we compare overall operational wake loss estimates based on supervisory control and data acquisition data to pre‐construction estimates provided by six wind energy consultants for five land‐based wind plants in North America. By augmenting existing approaches for quantifying operational wake losses, we estimate wake losses during the period of record for which operational data are available as well as the expected long‐term wake losses, based on historical reanalysis weather data, to which the EYA estimates are compared. To account for power variations at different turbine locations caused by terrain‐induced wind resource heterogeneity, we correct the operational wake loss estimates using predicted freestream wind speed variations from the Wind Systems Engineering Reynolds‐averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) tool. We identify long‐term corrected operational wake losses between 1.9% and 6.4% for the five plants, with a mean loss of 4%. For the project deemed most acceptable for operational wake loss assessment, which is located in the simplest terrain and isolated from neighboring plants, the mean EYA wake loss estimate is within 0.7 percentage points of the operational value of 6.4%. For most of the remaining plants, results suggest that wake losses are generally overpredicted by 2.6–6.3 percentage points. However, operational wake losses may be underestimated for many of these projects because of spatial wind resource variations not captured by the RANS model, external wake effects that are unaccounted for in the estimation process, and wind plant blockage effects. To better understand factors that contribute to the observed wake losses, we investigate operational wake losses as a function of wind direction and wind speed. As expected, wake losses are generally concentrated near wind directions that are aligned with rows of closely spaced turbines and at below‐rated wind speeds; however, for some projects, the energy produced by the wind plant exceeds the estimated potential energy of the plant without wake interactions for certain wind directions and wind speeds, suggesting inaccurate assumptions in the wake loss estimation method for those plants. Lastly, we compare predicted and operational wake losses for individual wind turbines, finding that even when overall wake losses are predicted accurately, large uncertainty exists at the turbine level.

17 WIND ENERGY↗