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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Fast Characterization of Inducible Regions of Atrial Fibrillation Models With Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Classification

Computational models of atrial fibrillation have successfully been used to predict optimal ablation sites. A critical step to assess the effect of an ablation pattern is to pace the model from different, potentially random, locations to determine whether arrhythmias can be induced in the atria. In this work, we propose to use multi-fidelity Gaussian process classification on Riemannian manifolds to efficiently determine the regions in the atria where arrhythmias are inducible. We build a probabilistic classifier that operates directly on the atrial surface. We take advantage of lower resolution models to explore the atrial surface and combine seamlessly with high-resolution models to identify regions of inducibility. We test our methodology in 9 different cases, with different levels of fibrosis and ablation treatments, totalling 1,800 high resolution and 900 low resolution simulations of atrial fibrillation. When trained with 40 samples, our multi-fidelity classifier that combines low and high resolution models, shows a balanced accuracy that is, on average, 5.7% higher than a nearest neighbor classifier. We hope that this new technique will allow faster and more precise clinical applications of computational models for atrial fibrillation. All data and code accompanying this manuscript will be made publicly available at: https://github.com/fsahli/AtrialMFclass.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributionally Safe Path Planning: Wasserstein Safe RRT

In this paper, we propose a Wasserstein metric-based random path planning algorithm. Wasserstein Safe RRT (W-Safe RRT) provides finite-sample probabilistic guarantees on the safety of a returned path in an uncertain obstacle environment. Vehicle and obstacle states are modeled as distributions based upon state and model observations. Additionally, we define limits on distributional sampling error so the Wasserstein distance between a vehicle state distribution and obstacle distributions can be bounded. This enables the algorithm to return safe paths with a confidence bound through combining finite sampling error bounds with calculations of the Wasserstein distance between discrete distributions. W-Safe RRT is compared against a baseline minimum encompassing ball algorithm, which ensures balls that minimally encompass discrete state and obstacle distributions do not overlap. The improved performance is verified in a 3D environment using single, multi, and rotating non-convex obstacle cases, with and without forced obstacle error in adversarial directions, showing that W-Safe RRT can handle poorly modeled complex environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Informed Machine Learning-Aided System Space Discretization

Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives based on an agreed-upon set of metrics and preferences established by the decision-maker. There are options to be considered during the decision-making process and each option offers a different trajectory and associated success profile in moving from a given system state to the desired system state. The decision-making process typically involves uncertainties associated with the current component and system states. In this sense, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) can be an analytical method and tool for accomplishing the probabilistic aspect of the decision-making process. Dynamic PRA is an evolution of conventional PRA methodology in which driving forces on modeled plant elements and the element behaviors are explicitly modeled over time. In the recent past, risk assessment methodologies have evolved to address risk issues in a continuously evolving environment and a novel probabilistic dynamics framework in continuous time and state-space discretization forms has been proposed. While state-space discretization has shown its strength in both consequence and causal reasoning modes, several challenges, including the computational requirement and physically meaningful system state identification, exist. Conventional system space discretization has usually been done by either the equal width discretization method or a data-driven method. Those methods naturally possess challenges coming from the physical understanding of discretized system space (i.e., system state) and the trajectory moving from a given system state to another system state. The purpose of this paper is to present a physics-based and data-driven system state discretization method such that one can justify what the discretized system space implies and understand the state trajectory from the viewpoint of operational actions.

Kim, Junyung↗
DOE OSTI2024

"Source Term Modeling for Advanced Gas Micro-Reactors"

Maintaining the safety of the public, environment, and operating personnel is the most important factor in designing, operating, maintaining, and decommissioning nuclear reactors. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the development of micro-reactors employing TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel. In gas reactors, TRISO fuel plays an important role in the safety case for high temperature reactors because of the fission product retention properties of the fuel. This ability enables the use of a functional containment strategy for the reactor where multiple barriers are used to prevent fission product release to the environment. Part of the safety analysis of these advanced reactors is the assessment of radionuclide releases under normal and accident conditions through the multiple credited safety barriers. Using conservative assumptions, a mechanistic analysis can be performed to quantify these releases that combines the probabilistic assessment of failure with analytic solutions to radionuclide transport equations. Source term modeling for TRISO fuel has been performed for previous reactor designs; however, these models are outdated, in many cases proprietary, and need updates to be applied to the current state of TRISO fuel technology and alternative gas reactor core configurations [1]. Currently, the only publicly available source term assessment for gas reactors is an expert-based Monte Carlo simulation based on the effectiveness of the fuel kernel, coating layers, and graphite block in a modular high temperature gas reactor [2]. Thus, there is a need to develop a simple, versatile, and mechanistic model of fission product release and transport in gas reactor cores that could be applied to a variety of reactors through user inputs and reactor-specific radionuclide inventories. The release is calculated by the diffusion of the key safety important fission products through the kernel, silicon carbide (SiC), graphite for both intact and defective TRISO particles based on fuel and graphite temperatures in the reactor under normal operation. These releases from the fuel enter the coolant where they can plate-out on cooler surfaces. A clean-up model is included for designs with a coolant purification system to remove fission gases. This initial distribution of fission products in the reactor serves as an initial condition for potential releases under postulated accident conditions. The model then can calculate the fission product release for any transient temperature profile and fission product releases can then be used to assess radiological dose to the workers and the public using conventional dose tools. Data on the diffusion of fission products is based on historic German TRISO experiments and the more current Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) TRISO fuel development program. The model is coded in python with inputs and outputs in excel spreadsheets, as well as python plotting utilities to aid in the interpretation of the results. References: [1] INL, NGNP Mechanistic Source Term White Paper, INL-10-17997, July 2010. [2] David A. Petti, Richard R. Hobbins, Peter Lowry, Hans Gougar, “Representative Source Terms and The Influence of Reactor Attributes on Functional Containment in Modular High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors,” Nuclear Technology, Vol. 184, p. 181-197, Nov. 2013.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Event-modeled Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagrams

Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) is a software tool developed at INL for researching the capabilities of dynamic PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). In order to promote the effective use of dynamic PRA by the general community, EMRALD focuses on the following key aspects: Simplifying the modeling process by providing a structure that corresponds to traditional PRA modeling methods Providing a user interface (UI) that makes it easy for the user to model and visualize complex interactions Allowing the user to couple with other analysis applications such as physics based simulations. This includes one-way communication for most applications and two-way loose coupling for customizable applications Providing the sequence and timing of events that lead to the specified outcomes when calculating results Traditional aspects of components with basic events, fault trees, and event trees are all captured in a dynamic framework of state diagrams, which are displayed.

Prescott, SteveR↗
DOE OSTI2023

FINITE ELEMENT MODEL MESH REFINEMENT EFFECTS ON QUALIFICATION OF NUCLEAR GRADE GRAPHITE COMPONENTS

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides the full and simplified design-by-analysis probabilistic assessments for determining acceptance of nuclear grade graphite core components. The assessments can be characterized by three parts: (1) a component stress distribution, often determined by a finite element (FE) model; (2) a Weibull probability density function (pdf) that characterizes the experimental tensile strength distribution; and (3) the post-processor, which combines the FE model and the Weibull strength distribution in accordance with the full and simplified assessments to determine component acceptance. It is known that the level of mesh refinement in FE models can affect the modeled component’s calculated stress distribution. Depending on the component geometry, the stress distribution may converge with sufficient refinement. It was previously unknown whether the acceptance decision resulting from the full and simplified assessments might change even with sufficient mesh refinement. This study explores that question using experimental strength results for a dog-bone geometry for two graphite grades, IG-110 and PCEA. The simplified assessment has two criteria that must be met, the first limits the combined membrane stress by the allowable stress and the second limits the peak equivalent stress by the allowable stress scaled by the ratio of flexural to tensile strength. In the application of the simplified assessment, convergence of the peak equivalent stress required extreme mesh refinement, however, the acceptance decision was not affected. It is hypothesized that more complex geometries with stress concentrations may present mesh refinement effects on the simplified assessment acceptance decision. Mesh refinement did affect the acceptance decision in the full assessment for the applied pressure loadings in this study. This work suggests component stress distribution convergence is not a sufficient criteria for POF convergence in the full assessment and that mesh refinement should continue until the POF has converged, especially where the resulting POF is bordering the SRC acceptable POF limit.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements

Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Curvature perturbations from stochastic particle production during inflation

We calculate the curvature power spectrum sourced by spectator fields that are excited repeatedly and non-adiabatically during inflation. In the absence of detailed information of the nature of spectator field interactions, we consider an ensemble of models with intervals between the repeated interactions and interaction strengths drawn from simple probabilistic distributions. We show that the curvature power spectra of each member of the ensemble shows rich structure with many features, and there is a large variability between different realizations of the same ensemble. Such features can be probed by the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large scale structure observations. They can also have implications for primordial black hole formation and CMB spectral distortions. The geometric random walk behavior of the spectator field allows us to calculate the ensembleaveraged power spectrum of curvature perturbations semi-analytically. For sufficiently large stochastic sourcing, the ensemble averaged power spectrum shows a scale dependence arising from the time spent by modes outside the horizon during the period of particle production, in spite of there being no preferred scale in the underlying model. We find that the magnitude of the ensemble-averaged power spectrum overestimates the typical power spectra in the ensemble because the ensemble distribution of the power spectra is highly non-Gaussian with fat tails.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learning earthquake ground motions via conditional generative modeling

Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized earthquake locations, while physics-based methods are computationally intensive and require accurate representations of Earth structures and earthquake sources. We propose an artificial intelligence (AI) spectrogram generator, Conditional Generative Modeling for Ground Motion (CGM-GM). CGM-GM leverages earthquake magnitudes and geographic coordinates of earthquakes and sensors as inputs, when postprocessed with phase information, capturing spatially continuous Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) as well as properties such as P and S arrivals, and waveform durations, without explicit physics constraints. This is achieved through a probabilistic autoencoder that extracts latent distributions in the time-frequency domain and variational sequential models for prior and posterior distributions. We evaluate the performance of CGM-GM using small-magnitude earthquake records from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks. Here, we report that CGM-GM demonstrates potential for complementing physics-based simulations and non-ergodic empirical ground motion models, as well as shows promise in seismology and beyond.

geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Impact Assessment and Software Tool Requirements

This research project will address the most pressing uncertainties in modeling and measuring the electric power grid effects of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and the E3 portion of nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The primary goal is to help decision-makers in the electric power sector have the knowledge and tools they need to most effectively mitigate GMD effects on the North American electric grid, with a secondary focus on EMP response. Primary tasks will involve comprehensive modeling,

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration of multiple coinflip devices for high-quality random sampling

Artificial intelligence, scientific computing, and probabilistic computing use random sampling to approximate solutions to various problems, with larger models requiring a substantial quantity of random numbers. To generate the required vast quantity of random numbers at high rates, we explore so-called “coinflip” devices, which are stochastic microelectronic devices ideally capable of independently generating random bits with a tunable weight at a high rate. However, coinflip devices are inherently analog and demonstrate nonidealities, like temperature dependence and drift, that can introduce determinism into the outputs. We present important considerations for building systems of multiple coinflip devices to produce high-quality bitstreams with low error and little dependency on previous bits. Using tunnel diodes as coinflip devices, we implement a control loop to adapt to temperature dependence and generate fair bitstreams with each device. While this can lead to dependencies between bits in a single bitstream, we demonstrate that combining results generated in parallel with individual tunnel diodes can produce fair and unpredictable bitstreams. The suitability of these bitstreams for use in probabilistic computing is then demonstrated through a Monte Carlo approximation of π.

Taylor, Brady Garland [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying human failure events (HFEs) for external hazard probabilistic risk assessment

In recent years, several advancements in nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) have been driven by increased understanding of external hazards, plant response, and uncertainties. However, major sources of uncertainty associated with external hazard PRA remain. One important source is how risk-significant human actions that are carried out to enable plant response and recovery from natural hazards cause the close coupling of physical impacts on plants and overall plant risk during these hazard events. This makes human reliability and human-plant interactions important elements to consider in resolving PRA gaps in external hazards. One of the challenges in considering human response in external hazard probabilistic risk assessment (XHPRA) is that most existing human reliability analysis (HRA) models were not developed for assessing actions outside the control room (termed ex-control room actions) and hazard response. To support this new scope, HRA models will need to be developed or modified to support identification of human activities, causal factors, and uncertainties inherent in external hazard response, thereby providing insights regarding event timing and physical event conditions as they relate to human performance. In this study, there are two main objectives: (1) evaluate the applicability of an existing cognitive-based HRA method, Phoenix, to ex-control room actions, and (2) identify sources of uncertainty to be characterized or reduced in order to make this method suitable for XHPRA. The first step of such work is performed by assessing the suitability of existing HRA methods to support identifying human failure events (HFEs) for human response to flooding hazards. These HFEs are human actions or inactions that are involved in human responses to flooding hazards and could contribute to the loss of a critical function for the plant in the scenario being examined. Here, in this work, decomposition analyses using the cognitive-based Phoenix HRA model are used to identify HFEs. The Phoenix method was found to be suitable for analyzing ex-control room actions as well as identifying specific HFEs and underlying crew failure modes (CFMs). However, the method's suitability for use in ex-control room actions would benefit from expanding the available CFMs to accommodate a larger variety of physical and communication tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preparing exact eigenstates of the open XXZ chain on a quantum computer

The open spin-1/2 XXZ spin chain with diagonal boundary magnetic fields is the paradigmatic example of a quantum integrable model with open boundary conditions. Here, we formulate a quantum algorithm for preparing Bethe states of this model, corresponding to real solutions of the Bethe equations. The algorithm is probabilistic, with a success probability that decreases with the number of down spins. For a Bethe state of L spins with M down spins, which contains a total of $(^{L}_{M})$ $2^{M} M!$ terms, the algorithm requires L+M 2 +2M qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species–season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Probabilistic Anomaly Detection for Electricity Market under Cyber Attacks

Information and communication technologies have been widely used in smart grid for efficient operation. However, these technologies are vulnerable to malicious cyber attacks, which may lead to severe reliability and economic issues. Recently, a variety of data-driven anomaly detection approaches have been explored to detect potential cyber attacks in smart grids. In this paper, we researched on the electricity market data aiming to identify anomalies from the locational marginal prices (LMPs) and provide a new indicator for potential cyber attacks in power grids. Specifically, a novel data-driven probabilistic anomaly detection framework is proposed for electricity market, which consists of three major components: long short-term memory (LSTM) based deterministic electricity price forecasting, probabilistic electricity price forecasting and anomaly detection. This framework is tested on a model-based electricity market simulator under two types of cyber attacks, i.e., load redistribution attack (LRA) and price responsive attack (PRA). Numerical results on the simulated LMPs show that the proposed framework is capable of detecting data anomalies over these attacks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden Stratospheric Warming Model

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe transition path theory (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex that can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton–Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These “dynamical statistics” are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model’s phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗