SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Prediction Accuracy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2022

Identification of Flux Rope Orientation via Neural Networks

Geomagnetic disturbance forecasting is based on the identification of solar wind structures and accurate determination of their magnetic field orientation. For nowcasting activities, this is currently a tedious and manual process. Focusing on the main driver of geomagnetic disturbances, the twisted internal magnetic field of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), we explore a convolutional neural network’s (CNN) ability to predict the embedded magnetic flux rope’s orientation once it has been identified from in situ solar wind observations. Our work uses CNNs trained with magnetic field vectors from analytical flux rope data. The simulated flux ropes span many possible spacecraft trajectories and flux rope orientations. We train CNNs first with full duration flux ropes and then again with partial duration flux ropes. The former provides us with a baseline of how well CNNs can predict flux rope orientation while the latter provides insights into real-time forecasting by exploring how accuracy is affected by percentage of flux rope observed. The process of casting the physics problem as a machine learning problem is discussed as well as the impacts of different factors on prediction accuracy such as flux rope fluctuations and different neural network topologies. Finally, results from evaluating the trained network against observed ICMEs from Wind during 1995–2015 are presented.

Thomas Narock↗

NASA NTRS2003

Estimating Terrestrial Carbon Exchange from Space: How Often and How Well?

Data from a new space mission measuring integrated light-use efficiency could provide a breakthrough in understanding of global carbon, water, and energy dynamics, and greatly improve the accuracy of model predictions for terrestrial carbon cycles and climate. Over the past decade, Gamon and others have shown that changes in photo-protective pigments are sensitive indicators of declines in light-use efficiency of plants and plant canopies. The requirements for integrated diurnal measurements from space need to be defined, before a space mission can be formulated successfully using this concept. We used towerbased CO 2 flux data as idealized proxies for remote measurements, examining their sampling properties. Thousands of half-hourly CO 2 flux measurements are needed before their average begins to converge on an average annual net CO 2 exchange. Estimates of daily integrated fluxes (i.e., diurnal curves) are more statistically efficient, especially if the spacing between measured days is quasiregular, rather than random. Using a few measurements per day one can distinguish among days with different net CO 2 exchanges. Fluxes sampled between mid-morning to mid-afternoon are more diagnostic than early morning or late afternoon measurements. Similar results (correlation >0.935) were obtained using 2 measurements per day with high accuracy ([:plusmn:]5%), 3 measurements per day with medium accuracy ([:plusmn:] 10%), or 5 measurements per day at lower accuracy ([:plusmn:]20%). An observatory in a geosynchronous or near-geosynchronous orbit could provide appropriate observations, as could a multi-satellite constellation in polar orbits, but there is a potential trade-off between the required number of observations per day and quality of each observation.

Knox, Robert G.↗

NASA NTRS2023

An Investigation into the Effect of Liquid Accumulation on Thermo-Physiologic State using an Advanced Moisture Model Coupled with a High Resolution Human Thermal Model

A physics-based mathematical model for simulating heat and moisture transport on the skin and within clothing was developed to improve the accuracy of human thermal modeling predictions. In a previous study, a set of sweating hotplate experiments was specifically created to obtain test data for model validation. The clothing moisture model was subsequently coupled with a human thermal model and tested by simulating human experiments described in the open literature, which served to verify the model’s ability to predict whole body thermo-physiologic state in work-rest cycles during which sweating was known to occur. In this study, a human subject test was specifically designed to validate the model’s ability to predict local and whole body sweat evaporation and accumulation on the surface of the body. The human subject test incorporated twelve clothed male subjects of moderate physical fitness, ages 18-30, which were prescribed a work-rest cycle in a climate-controlled chamber (25 °C, 50% RH). Two activity levels were considered during the active stage (4 MET vs. 6.5 MET), and two sets of ending ambient conditions were considered for the final rest stage (25 °C vs. 15 °C, 50% RH). Model predictions were compared to the measured local skin temperatures, core temperatures, and whole body sweat losses. In general, the model was able to reproduce the trends observed in the human subject trial, but more importantly, provided insight into how dynamic changes in liquid content can impact the evolution of local and whole body thermo-physiologic state. This study demonstrates the ability of an advanced moisture model to capture distinct physics attributable to moisture accumulation, allowing for increased accuracy in predicting human thermal state and for interpreting the results of measurements derived from human subject tests.

human thermal model↗

NASA NTRS1986

Fatigue and fracture overview

The accomplishments achieved under the isotropic creep-fatigue crack initiation life prediction program are summarized. A sizeable creep-fatigue crack initiation data base was generated on the nickel-base superalloy, B-1900. Companion constitutive modeling programs have also generated extensive data bases on the same heat of material. The crack initiation results have formed the basis of a new approach to creep-fatigue life prediction. The term Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) was coined for the method, which was evaluated under isothermal, uniaxial conditions. Stringent laboratory verification experiments were used to test the accuracy of the method. Considering the quite limited material property data needed to evaluate the constants in the approach, the prediction accuracy is acceptable. At the expense of the larger data base required, Lewis developed total strain- strainrange partitioning method (TS-SRP) is capable of a higher degree of accuracy.

Halford, Gary R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessing and Ensuring GOES-R Magnetometer Accuracy

The GOES-R magnetometer subsystem accuracy requirement is 1.7 nanoteslas (nT). During quiet times (100 nT), accuracy is defined as absolute mean plus 3 sigma. During storms (300 nT), accuracy is defined as absolute mean plus 2 sigma. Error comes both from outside the magnetometers, e.g. spacecraft fields and misalignments, as well as inside, e.g. zero offset and scale factor errors. Because zero offset and scale factor drift over time, it will be necessary to perform annual calibration maneuvers. To predict performance before launch, we have used Monte Carlo simulations and covariance analysis. Both behave as expected, and their accuracy predictions agree within 30%. With the proposed calibration regimen, both suggest that the GOES-R magnetometer subsystem will meet its accuracy requirements.

Magnetometer↗

NASA NTRS1972

Solar cosmic ray hazard to interplanetary and earth-orbital space travel

A statistical treatment of the radiation hazards to astronauts due to solar cosmic ray protons is reported to determine shielding requirements for solar proton events. More recent data are incorporated into the present analysis in order to improve the accuracy of the predicted mission fluence and dose. The effects of the finite data sample are discussed. Mission fluence and dose versus shield thickness data are presented for mission lengths up to 3 years during periods of maximum and minimum solar activity; these correspond to various levels of confidence that the predicted hazard will not be exceeded.

Yucker, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Laminar flow studies of a low-temperature space radiator model using D-shaped tubes

Test results of a low-temperature space radiator model are presented. Radiator performance is evaluated with a low-thermal-conductivity fluid in laminar flow in D-shaped cross-section tubes. The test covered a Reynolds number range from 50 to 4500 and a fluid temperature range from 294 to 414 K (70 to 286 F). For low-temperature radiators, the fluid-to-surface temperature differential was predominately influenced by fluid temperature in laminar flow. Heat transfer and pressure drop for the radiator tube could be predicted within engineering accuracy from existing correlations.

Cintula, T. C.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Analysis of oil lubricated, fluid film, thrust bearings with allowance for temperature dependent viscosity

A preliminary design study was performed to seek a fluid-film thrust bearing design intended to be part of a high-speed, hybrid (rolling element/fluid film) bearing configuration. The base line used is a design previously tested. To improve the accuracy of theoretical predictions of load capacity, flow rate, and friction power loss, an analytical procedure was developed to include curvature effects inherent in thrust bearings and to allow for the temperature rise in the fluid due to viscous heating. Also, a narrow-groove approximation in the treatment of the temperature field was formulated to apply the procedure to the Whipple thrust bearing. A comparative trade-off study was carried out assuming isothermal films; its results showed the shrouded-step design to be superior to the Whipple design for the intended application. An extensive parametric study was performed, employing isoviscous calculations, to determine the optimized design, which was subsequently recalculated allowing for temperature effects.

Pan, C. H. T.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Normal evaporation of binary alloys

In the study of normal evaporation, it is assumed that the evaporating alloy is homogeneous, that the vapor is instantly removed, and that the alloy follows Raoult's law. The differential equation of normal evaporation relating the evaporating time to the final solute concentration is given and solved for several important special cases. Uses of the derived equations are exemplified with a Ni-Al alloy and some binary iron alloys. The accuracy of the predicted results are checked by analyses of actual experimental data on Fe-Ni and Ni-Cr alloys evaporated at 1600 C, and also on the vacuum purification of beryllium. These analyses suggest that the normal evaporation equations presented here give satisfactory results that are accurate to within an order of magnitude of the correct values, even for some highly concentrated solutions. Limited diffusion and the resultant surface solute depletion or enrichment appear important in the extension of this normal evaporation approach.

Li, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS1973

An integral turbulent kinetic energy analysis of free shear flows

Mixing of coaxial streams is analyzed by application of integral techniques. An integrated turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) equation is solved simultaneously with the integral equations for the mean flow. Normalized TKE profile shapes are obtained from incompressible jet and shear layer experiments and are assumed to be applicable to all free turbulent flows. The shear stress at the midpoint of the mixing zone is assumed to be directly proportional to the local TKE, and dissipation is treated with a generalization of the model developed for isotropic turbulence. Although the analysis was developed for ducted flows, constant-pressure flows were approximated with the duct much larger than the jet. The axisymmetric flows under consideration were predicted with reasonable accuracy. Fairly good results were also obtained for the fully developed two-dimensional shear layers, which were computed as thin layers at the boundary of a large circular jet.

Peters, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Exhaust cloud rise and growth for Apollo Saturn engines.

Empirical and analytical results have been reduced from time-lapse photographs of exhaust clouds during the launch of Apollo 10, 14, 15, and 16 from the Kennedy Space Center. Theoretical predictions of the buoyant cloud rise and growth compare very favorably to actual measurements. The mathematical model predicts with engineering accuracy the terminal altitude and size of the clouds. A principal input to MSFC's multilayer diffusion model is top height of the exhaust cloud. It is this characteristic dimension that is the main subject of this report. An interesting occurrence during launch is the formation of bimodal exhaust cloud which is due to the north-south oriented flame trench directly beneath the base of the vehicle. This study has added considerable information on engine exhaust cloud rise and growth which is essential to the study of atmospheric dispersal in time and space.

Susko, M.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Lightweight 3.66-meter-diameter conical mesh antenna reflector

A description is given of a 3.66 m diameter nonfurlable conical mesh antenna incorporating the line source feed principle recently developed. The weight of the mesh reflector and its support structure is 162 N. An area weighted RMS surface deviation of 0.28 mm was obtained. The RF performance measurements show a gain of 48.3 db at 8.448 GHz corresponding to an efficiency of 66%. During the design and development of this antenna, the technology for fabricating the large conical membranes of knitted mesh was developed. As part of this technology a FORTRAN computer program, COMESH, was developed which permits the user to predict the surface accuracy of a stretched conical membrane.

Moore, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Error analysis for station position from tracking of the Lageos satellite

The earth physics satellite systems error analysis program was applied to the problem of predicting the relative accuracy of station position determinations under varying orbital and observing geometries. The reference case consists of nine ground stations extending over 1500 km which lasers ranged to a LAGEOS satellite, with simultaneous Doppler tracking from a geosynchronous satellite for 16 days. Eleven variations from the reference case were tested. The results showed little sensitivity to whether the LAGEOS altitude is 3700 or 5690 km. More significant were the high inclination, and that LAGEOS was tracked by a geosynchronous satellite.

Parmenter, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS1975

On the feasibility of real-time prediction of aircraft carrier motion at sea

The ability to predict the aircraft carrier's motion over an interval of several seconds within reasonable error bounds may allow an improvement in touchdown dispersion and a more certain value for ramp clearance due to a smoother aircraft trajectory. Also, improved information to the landing signal officer should decrease the number of waveoffs substantially. It is quantitatively shown that, based on the power density spectrum data for pitch and heave measured for various ships and sea conditions, the motion can be predicted well for up to 15 seconds. The zero crossover times for both pitch and heave motions can be predicted with impressive accuracy. The predictor was designed on the basis of Kalman's optimum filtering theory for the discrete time case, adapted for real-time digital computer operation.

Sidar, M.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Design features and operational characteristics of the Langley 0.3-meter transonic cryogenic tunnel

Experience with the Langley 0.3 meter transonic cryogenic tunnel, which is fan driven, indicated that such a tunnel presents no unusual design difficulties and is simple to operate. Purging, cooldown, and warmup times were acceptable and were predicted with good accuracy. Cooling with liquid nitrogen was practical over a wide range of operating conditions at power levels required for transonic testing, and good temperature distributions were obtained by using a simple liquid nitrogen injection system. To take full advantage of the unique Reynolds number capabilities of the 0.3 meter transonic tunnel, it was designed to accommodate test sections other than the original, octagonal, three dimensional test section. A 20- by 60-cm two dimensional test section was recently installed and is being calibrated. A two dimensional test section with self-streamlining walls and a test section incorporating a magnetic suspension and balance system are being considered.

Kilgore, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Evaluation of battery models for prediction of electric vehicle range

Three analytical models for predicting electric vehicle battery output and the corresponding electric vehicle range for various driving cycles were evaluated. The models were used to predict output and range, and then compared with experimentally determined values determined by laboratory tests on batteries using discharge cycles identical to those encountered by an actual electric vehicle while on SAE cycles. Results indicate that the modified Hoxie model gave the best predictions with an accuracy of about 97 to 98% in the best cases and 86% in the worst case. A computer program was written to perform the lengthy iterative calculations required. The program and hardware used to automatically discharge the battery are described.

Frank, H. A.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Making clouds in Spacelab

Improvements in the accuracy of weather predictions and possibilities for changing the weather might depend on a better understanding of the microphysical processes which take place within clouds. A study of these processes on the surface of the earth is difficult in connection with gravitational disturbances. An Atmospheric Cloud Physics Laboratory (ACPL), which is currently being developed, is to be carried into space in the Spacelab in the early 1980's. This facility will provide scientists, for the first time, with the opportunity to study cloud physics without the disturbing gravitational effects. In the ACPL facility, a microscopic element can be suspended without support. The processes of freezing, thawing, collision, electric charging, and temperature changes can be observed and photographed as many times and for as long as necessary.

Duncan, C.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Rotary-wing aerodynamics. Volume 1: Basic theories of rotor aerodynamics with application to helicopters

The concept of rotary-wing aircraft in general is defined. The energy effectiveness of helicopters is compared with that of other static thrust generators in hover, as well as with various air and ground vehicles in forward translation. The most important aspects of rotor-blade dynamics and rotor control are reviewed. The simple physicomathematical model of the rotor offered by the momentum theory is introduced and its usefulness and limitations are assessed. The combined blade-element and momentum theory approach, which provides greater accuracy in performance predictions, is described as well as the vortex theory which models a rotor blade by means of a vortex filament or vorticity surface. The application of the velocity and acceleration potential theory to the determination of flow fields around three dimensional, non-rotating bodies as well as to rotor aerodynamic problems is described. Airfoil sections suitable for rotors are also considered.

Stepniewski, W. Z.↗